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Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by timsneath on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:35PM (#32027517)
It seems apparent to this observer that he developed cold feet pretty fast after an impetuous decision, and has been looking for any reason to back out of it since then. The spam accounts angle seems like a convenient scapegoat, rather than a real surprise to him.

He's clearly eccentric in his approach to decision making: I don't think any Harvard Business School course will teach "the Musk Principles". But it's unclear to me what he initially thought he was getting out of this. In the original news, he said, "Twitter has tremendous potential – I look forward to working with the company and the community of users to unlock it." Either he was breathlessly arrogant or astonishingly careless in the first instance. And I say this as someone who has huge respect for his accomplishments in other industries.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by atlasunshrugged on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:46PM (#32027697)
There's another belief floated by Josh Wolfe (an investor with Lux Capital) who claimed it was a ruse to liquidate Tesla stock en masse without Tesla hodlers getting suspicious and tanking the inflated stock price.

https://twitter.com/wolfejosh/status/1545387947578597376

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by pryce on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:01PM (#32027966)
If someone's stock is as incredibly overinflated as Tesla has been for so long, choosing the most effective way to liquidate stock without triggering a run becomes a social engineering problem with the incentive of a multi-billion dollar payoff.

Honestly I think other people trying to read this situation in some way that ignores a multi billion dollar incentive just sitting there is utterly naive.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by mzs on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:09PM (#32028100)
You say social engineering, I say criminal fraud.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by miohtama on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:07PM (#32028986)
But this is only because everywhere, everything is securities fraud

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-06-26/everyt...

It also does not make sense to do this kind of fraud, as Tesla stock will surely tank on the news of it being used as a collateral in an acquisition deal.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by ycombobreaker on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:09PM (#32030652)
Nah, the "everything is securities fraud" trope is qbout some (usually immoral) behavior that a shareholder argues would materially affect the stock price, and which was not disclosed to shareholders.

Elon Musk announcing some M&A news with the intent of effecting price changes in TWTR,TSLA securies would be pretty boring, vanilla securities fraud.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by themitigating on Friday July 08, 2022 @11:09PM (#32031166)
That depends on the amount especially since he's already been caught doing this when he claimed he would take Tesla private
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by nazka on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:15PM (#32029105)
I knew it had to be Matt Levine :)
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by FerociousTimes on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:15PM (#32028214)
More precisely, securities fraud.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by Dylan16807 on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:47PM (#32028715)
Though it's weird to me that it's fine to sell stock just because you want to, but pretending you didn't want to could qualify as securities fraud.

And that seems to be what the concern boils down to? The issue of whether he defrauded twitter is a separate thing. (Though I'm inclined to say no, because twitter came at this in a very skeptical and careful way, and normal fraud requires fooling someone into material loss.)

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by randcraw on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:09PM (#32030660)
Having driven Twitter's value down by $15B, I can't imagine Musk won't be sued by shareholders for it, since his claims of fake accounts are as yet unproven. The same goes for the damages this little venture has inflicted on Tesla stock. The SEC and FTC are likely to cost Musk Enterptises a pretty penny in legal fees before all of this ends.

The $1B penalty for backing out of the Twitter deal is the least of Musk's concerns.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by adgjlsfhk1 on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:27PM (#32030813)
it's somewhat hard to argue that musk is responsible for the decline given that the entire NASDAQ is also down. you might be able to find some contribution, but only a relatively small amount of it.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by ModernMech on Friday July 08, 2022 @11:46PM (#32031411)
But Musk set the price at $54 by agreeing to buy Twitter at that price. If this deal were guaranteed to go through, shares should be trading at that price until the sale is complete. Trading at above that price means shareholders would lose money at closing, and trading at below means someone is leaving money on the table. Market forces should cause the price to converge at $54.

The fact that it’s trading lower means that investors don’t expect the deal to go through. And who exactly as been doing his best to very publicly bring the deal into question? Elon Musk.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by Dylan16807 on Saturday July 09, 2022 @01:48AM (#32032189)
If he was the only thing dragging twitter toward $54, and then he stops dragging it as hard, it's hard for me to see that as driving value down. If he hasn't caused any other damage, that's just twitter returning to its natural value.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by CogitoCogito on Saturday July 09, 2022 @06:49AM (#32033775)
Given the agreement, it sure seems to me that Twitter's natural value is currently $44 billion dollars.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by gnicholas on Friday July 08, 2022 @11:00PM (#32031112)
Is it down $15B from the post-announcement peak, or from pre-announcement? I’d think only the latter would hold up in court.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by bobsil1 on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:57PM (#32031087)
Having driven Tesla's value down (below the market decline) by nonstop trolling, …
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by sem000 on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:48PM (#32031000)
Sure, let’s pretend the entire market hasn’t sunk.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by CogitoCogito on Saturday July 09, 2022 @06:52AM (#32033794)
> Sure, let’s pretend the entire market hasn’t sunk.

Why does that matter? Musk agreed to buy Twitter for $44 billion. If he comes through, that's the value of Twitter. If he doesn't, then the value is something else. The difference between $44 billion and fair market value is just the expectation of investors that Musk really will pay. So yeah the drop really _is_ due to Musk trying to back out of the deal. If Musk weren't backing out of the deal, then then Twitter's value shouldn't drop regardless of the fact that the rest of the market has.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by drc500free on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:58PM (#32028858)
Intent is the core issue of most white collar fraud.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by Dylan16807 on Friday July 08, 2022 @08:05PM (#32029748)
I'd say that's because harm (and reliance) is usually easy to prove.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by bardworx on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:17PM (#32030279)
From my understanding, US law is based on King George III, which inherently requires intent to be proven.

In other words, US law judges by intent vs actual action/damage.

One example of this is: Credit Card Fraud is prosecuted based on max possible theft vs money stolen.

https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/intent

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by canucklady on Friday July 08, 2022 @11:13PM (#32031190)
Mens rea is a necessary but not sufficient component of proving a criminal charge - the defendant intended to break the law. Actus reus is also required, which is actually doing the act.

US law doesn't "judge by intent". If you try to murder someone but you don't succeed, you don't get charged with murder.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by bardworx on Saturday July 09, 2022 @04:30AM (#32033101)
Yes, I agree with you and I should have worded my comment better.

To keep with the murder example, intent is what separates 3v2, in most states. Yes, a crime was committed but was the intent to cause bodily harm vs actions causing bodily harm, without intent.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by maxerickson on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:01PM (#32028907)
There's a contract in place (that waves due diligence!).

If he entered into that contract with no intent to honor it...

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by glenngillen on Friday July 08, 2022 @08:35PM (#32030015)
As Levine has repeatedly stated he didn’t “waive due diligence”. It was a binding purchase agreement. It’s meant to come after all of the due diligence.

He didn’t waive his right. He just opted not to do any before buying.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by behnamoh on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:46PM (#32028683)
Is there any hope that this time he will pay for his shenanigans?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by dylan604 on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:18PM (#32029142)
We've had the Teflon Don, now we have the Teflon Elon.

I'm sure he'll be able to weasel his way out of this. He'll spend a crap ton of money to lawyers just to be able to say he doesn't have to pay for it, but he's still paying for it on a smaller scale and not in public. Anything to put up another W on the scoresheet.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by XorNot on Friday July 08, 2022 @08:22PM (#32029905)
The counter point here is that the Twitter board is not poor, and the incentives to force the buyout (or at least extract more money from Musk) are huge.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by dylan604 on Friday July 08, 2022 @08:30PM (#32029983)
Yes, and they are the side I'm cheering for in this match. Even if Musk is forced to pay, I doubt it will slow his twitter tirades down. In fact, I'd expect him to come out harder to prove whatever his little ego thinks needs to be proven.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by elliekelly on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:23PM (#32030325)
I legitimately think removing Musk’s account from the platform entirely might be their best bargaining chip to actually get the deal to go through.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by beagle3 on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:32PM (#32030392)
They just reinstated Alex Berenson, apparently in a complete win for him (details are not yet public)

Removing musk account, if they do thAt, might backfire spectacularly.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by elliekelly on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:39PM (#32030447)
How might it “backfire spectacularly”? What could Musk possibly do to harm Twitter any further?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by beagle3 on Saturday July 09, 2022 @12:33AM (#32031711)
Applying unrelated leverage between two parties is usually not looked at favorably by court. And court is likely where the musk/twitter thing will be settled.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by unity1001 on Friday July 08, 2022 @11:31PM (#32031323)
Not Musk but his gigantic fan base on Twitter would.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by lazide on Friday July 08, 2022 @11:03PM (#32031135)
“I said, ‘What are you going to do, stab me?’”

- Stabbed man

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by bardworx on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:21PM (#32030312)
Isn’t the entire breakup clause contractually written in?

From my understanding, the current choice is:

1. Does Elon get sued by Twitter to force sale, per the initial agreement, where Elon agreed to allowing Twitter to force a sale.

2. Does Elon just pay the billion separation clause and walk away.

Do you see it differently?

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by jakelazaroff on Saturday July 09, 2022 @12:39AM (#32031751)
There is no option 2. That was a proviso in case Elon was unable to secure financing. He secured financing, so now he has to buy Twitter. Or they can sue him.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by bardworx on Monday July 11, 2022 @02:06PM (#32059549)
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000119312522...

Is there a different version of the doc than listed above? I couldn’t find any revisions and it sure seems that there are options available to Musk.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by tsimionescu on Saturday July 09, 2022 @12:44AM (#32031782)
The clause about the $1B penalty says nothing about separation. That clause only activates if the deal is stopped by some outside entity, such as the SEC, or if the two parties mutually agree to stop the process.

In all other cases, Elon has committed to give them $44B in exchange for the company.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by bardworx on Monday July 11, 2022 @02:07PM (#32059555)
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000119312522...

There’s quite a bit about separation, sections 7 & 8

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by dylan604 on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:03PM (#32030605)
What reads like simple English to you or I does not get read the same way by lawyers. Once lawyers are involved, all reasonable logic goes out the window in my perspective.

Ever since what "the definition of 'is' is", my whole outlook on lawyers was just obliterated.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by bmitc on Friday July 08, 2022 @11:27PM (#32031291)
Not for sure why you're downvoted, because you're right. Lawyers do not operate on logical basis. They operate on interpretations of logic. I found this out when buying my house. Interacting with the lawyers was completely miserable because they live in their own little world. They expected me to just know things that they would poorly specify, requiring several emails to clarify, and then when I would point out mistakes, logical inconsistencies, or poorly defined things in the contract, they would just shrug it off or sort of grudgingly fix them, seemingly just to appease me. Then they would just dig their heels in the ground about what the contract "says" because the contract "says so", even though it made no logical sense. Because the contracts aren't what they say logically. They say what they say based upon a sort of colloquially agreed upon interpretation of them. Lawsuits then center around this colloquial agreement and not around the contractual logic. It's an excruciatingly frustrating world to be introduced to. I wish to never have to deal with lawyers.

> Ever since what "the definition of 'is' is", my whole outlook on lawyers was just obliterated.

Is that in reference to something? Got a link or an article or something?

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by dylan604 on Saturday July 09, 2022 @01:43AM (#32032154)
>Is that in reference to something? Got a link or an article or something?

Very much yes[0]. It was one of the defensive lines from Bill Clinton. I was still in high school during this, and it set me on a very bad path of thinking how to twist anything and everything anyone ever said. After all, if the pres can do it, then we should all be able to do it.

[0] https://slate.com/news-and-politics/1998/09/bill-clinton-and...

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by dinobones on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:54PM (#32031064)
You say OSINT, I say, you just used google with quotes.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by datavirtue on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:51PM (#32031033)
I have accepted that I will eventually see Musk put behind bars--all of a sudden--by the SEC. I get the sense that they are always building a case on him. He would be a great "Martha Stuart."
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by lazide on Friday July 08, 2022 @11:04PM (#32031140)
SEC can only levy civil penalties, criminal (aka jail) is another matter. Which they are happy to refer to the relevant prosecutor, it just isn’t their job at that point.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by thayne on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:54PM (#32030548)
What's the difference?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by pdpi on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:16PM (#32030720)
One’s the technique, the other’s the goal. Like smash-and-grab and pickpocketing are two different ways you can steal things.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by Gustomaximus on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:24PM (#32030337)
I wondered this early on. More so when I thought he would actually buy twitter as Twitter had had some serious share price decline at that point for over 6 months, so it's a way to shift money from an inflated area to a more moderately priced one. Plus he obviously likes the platform in general.

If true, I don't think it's the case he did it intending to pull out. Seems unlikely he would have signed the billion dollar exit clause when he could have easily dragged the initial talks on a bit longer for largely the same result before 'changing his mind'.

My best guess is the offer was genuine (thought impulsive) but as he's seen the price drop further, now his offer seems too much. Why pay $44bn for a sub $30bn company. Kinda simple but seem most likely than all these more complex theories.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by themitigating on Friday July 08, 2022 @11:09PM (#32031160)
So you acknowledge the possibility that he acted impulsively but think his other decision were all rational and intelligent?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by Gustomaximus on Saturday July 09, 2022 @05:53AM (#32033472)
Happy to have a conversation with you on reasoning, and apologise if I'm wrong in how I read your reply message, it feels like a curt criticism statement, not add value to discussion.

But anyway, yes I believe it is possible to be impulsive followed by more logical decision making. This process seems fairly commonplace in the world I observe.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by themitigating on Sunday July 10, 2022 @01:50AM (#32042184)
I apologize for being curt, I thought my statement was obvious. Here's some lines from your comment

"If true, I don't think it's the case he did it intending to pull out. Seems unlikely he would have ...... My best guess is the offer was genuine (thought impulsive) but as he's seen the price drop further, now his offer seems.. "

Considering his impulsive behavior, which has prior occurrences. 1. Making an immature derogatory remark to one of the people trying to assist with that cave rescue. 2. His statement that he was taking tesla private that he retracted later 3. This situation..

Why do you think he's acting logically now? Why is it your best guess? Your words

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by Gustomaximus on Monday July 11, 2022 @07:47AM (#32054841)
> Why do you think he's acting logically now? Why is it your best guess? Your words

1) As said, its not uncommon to act impulsively, followed by more logical decision making after. From your examples, I dont feel listing a few impulsive cases removes his ability to act logically. And the sequence I've guessed seems the most likely in my kindly eyes.

2) Because its not my second best guess, or any other.

3) See 1) & 2)

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by themitigating on Monday July 11, 2022 @08:33AM (#32055280)
I think we have a disconnect on probability and booleans. Elon musk can act logically or impulsively. Each historical act of impulsiveness increases the probability of future impulsive acts
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by dubswithus on Saturday July 09, 2022 @12:20AM (#32031631)
Musk probably believes he can grow the company into a $100B+ company.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by Gustomaximus on Saturday July 09, 2022 @05:59AM (#32033513)
I feel there is huge profitability growth potential there. If you look at the better quarters the revenues can be significant. If you ran that against a lean headcount and were genuinely A-political there's really a money maker there potentially.

That said the risk is huge as the world can move on quickly as we saw with MySpace. And Elon s becoming increasingly a political risk factor himself in a business were peoples view on the leaders/owners really matters.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by dubswithus on Saturday July 09, 2022 @11:16AM (#32035810)
My point is he can pay more because he believes he's going to make much more in the future. There is a downturn but most people suffer downturns through life and hold through them. It's just childish to back out now but I would expect that from him.

His views really don't matter. Nothing happened to Facebook and nothing will. People will just continue fighting (tweeting).

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by Gustomaximus on Monday July 11, 2022 @07:53AM (#32054904)
I see you point, but being childish in backing out may not mean much if you feel you're overpaying $14bn, or if not him his funding partners. People have a much stronger emotional response to losing something than gaining something.

But really who knows. Maybe he realised he had too much on his plate, or any number of things.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by spfzero on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:49PM (#32028738)
I think the incentive you mean is to move out of a stock you think is overvalued (I agree about that). But that works with any purchase, not just Twitter. And with that motive in mind, Twitter would be a really unwise company to buy, when there are so many companies available with actual asset value around. Wouldn't you rather buy something with your over-inflated stock that had some value-preservation attributes? For example, you could buy a mining stock, or a railroad. With Twitter, you're going from the frying pan into the fire.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by throwaway09223 on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:58PM (#32028867)
According to the above theory, a value move (diversifying from TSLA to something else) is precisely what must be avoided.

The move would have to be perceived as financially irrational for it to be operable in terms of distracting the market from the diversification.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by datavirtue on Friday July 08, 2022 @11:03PM (#32031128)
He could sit next to whatever dark lord descendents currently run Ford, for less. But that would make Tesla into a serious car company; which is a real business deal, for someone serious about changing the world.

This is just one of the impacts of the high potency products at the local cannabis dispensary. You can't function if you wake and bake on that shit.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by halukakin on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:34PM (#32028515)
This would have been switching from an overinflated stock to a much more overinflated stock.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by rmbyrro on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:43PM (#32028639)
The theory presumes he never intended to actually buy Twitter stocks, just keep the cash.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by behnamoh on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:54PM (#32028802)
But why would he need cash? To buy another company, or start one of his own?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by floatinglotus on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:08PM (#32029002)
He knows Tesla is overpriced and wants to take some of his money off the table. He knows it is due for a major haircut.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by yebyen on Friday July 08, 2022 @08:17PM (#32029864)
Why would anyone need cash ahead of a recession? I wonder...
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by johannes1234321 on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:05PM (#32028973)
To prevent itbecome worthless from a Tesla stock crash. Either putting it in the abnk or other investments.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by rmbyrro on Monday July 11, 2022 @07:24AM (#32054668)
To buy more tesla stocks than he had before, at a lower price point each.

He doesn't hide he would like to have the company private. Owning more stocks moves him closer to this ideal.

Just speculating, I have no inside info on what he really wants to do with the cash.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by Sporktacular on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:58PM (#32028865)
Minus 1 billion for a termination fee. Why would he have agreed to that if it was his plan all along?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by svnt on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:19PM (#32029168)
If he was able to exit his Twitter stock position after the jump in price he created it would wash out the $1B.

If he exited TSLA to the tune of the remaining $10B or $15B, staving off a 50% decline in that value then he came out way ahead.

It seems very likely to me he will find a way out of the $1B fee and end up settling for some fraction.

Of course if he just borrowed against his TSLA to facilitate this deal, as I have read he did, then his profit on the move depends on the terms of the loan.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by labster on Friday July 08, 2022 @08:46PM (#32030116)
The $1B termination fee is the tip of the iceberg. Changing your mind is not covered in the termination clause, and his evidence Twitter mislead him is contradicted by his own statements prior to the deal. Twitter is owed substantially more than a billion. Likely closer to ten.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by HWR_14 on Saturday July 09, 2022 @01:35AM (#32032102)
He sold something around $10 (+/- 2) billion of Tesla stock. The loans don't matter as they were (a) tied in to use only to buy Twitter and (b) allowed to expire last month.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by namecheapTA on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:12PM (#32029071)
Sell $40b of Tesla without causing a dip, is worth a lot more than $1b. A 3% dip from news he's selling that much stock would cost way more than $1b.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by formerkrogemp on Saturday July 09, 2022 @07:18AM (#32033933)
It's not just the potential impact upon markets. Shareholders of that size have legal obligations as well. If you own that much of a company you are specifically and legally precluded from selling it all at once in many circumstances. Bill Gates could not sell his entire Microsoft stake all at once back in the day into an open market as it might cause the security to drop significantly and for other, legal reasons. Certainly, the securities exchange act of 1934 requires disclosures of certain sales of shareholders above a certain percentage of shares of publically traded companies, but also more nuanced and exacting laws regarding national security interest prohibit the sales of securities and ownership to specific parties or foreign interests. When the scale of your ownership stake is in the billions, that certainly limits the potential buyers of the entire stake to a short list.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by avalys on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:12PM (#32028136)
The deal includes a "specific performance" clause, which allows Twitter to force Musk to carry out the deal. He can't simply pay $1 billion and walk away, he's in for a very messy legal fight. This pretext about bots is incredibly weak and he's in no way guaranteed to win.

If this really were part of some grand master plan, I think he would have left himself an easier out.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by kelnos on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:33PM (#32028494)
It also depends on what the Twitter board and shareholders want. Will they want to get bought out and owned by someone who clearly doesn't want to own the company, and may run it into the ground out of spite? Certainly some shareholders will just want to take the money and run (the agreed-upon buyout price is quite a premium over the current stock price), but others will be more interested in protecting the future of Twitter as a company and platform.

Agree that there will be a massive legal fight, but my guess is that it will be over how much extra Musk has to pay to get out of the deal (beyond the $1B breakup fee), than over making him perform. But who knows; only time will tell.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by themitigating on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:37PM (#32028558)
He's constantly dragged the company and founders through the mud and the stock dropped 7% once he called the deal off.

I'd sued and settle for a few billion instead of taking the one billion backout

He uses his wealth as a weapon against companies he doesn't like, just the mere threat he may get involved causes massive changes in the stock price and in turn causes investors to suffer financial lose.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by behnamoh on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:50PM (#32028746)
> He uses his wealth as a weapon against companies he doesn't like, just the mere threat he may get involved causes massive changes in the stock price and in turn causes investors to suffer financial lose.

Reminds me of Bitcoin "whales". It's a shame that this guy is the figure that will take humanity to Mars.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by frollo on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:29PM (#32029300)
> It's a shame that this guy is the figure that will take humanity to Mars

That's just more BS from him. He'll just keep kicking the can, resuming the project with some spectacular stunt every time he needs it. Everything Musk does or says is just a performance to manipulate the markets.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by ceejayoz on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:40PM (#32029446)
I think the Mars stuff is the least likely to be BS. There's been ongoing, real advancement towards the goal for over a decade now, advancement serious enough that NASA's picked them to land their astronauts on the Moon with their Mars rocket.

A permanent colony seems like the sort of thing he'd get bored with, though.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by frollo on Friday July 08, 2022 @08:22PM (#32029904)
Establishing a colony on another planet is going to require a monstrous amount of money, time and resources. I doubt a single country could manage it (look at what it takes to run the ISS, and that's a joke comparse to Mars), but there are zero chances a single man, no matter how rich, is going to do more than a dent in that enormous task.

Solving the technology problem is just the tip of the iceberg.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by ceejayoz on Friday July 08, 2022 @08:35PM (#32030016)
> there are zero chances a single man, no matter how rich, is going to do more than a dent in that enormous task... Solving the technology problem is just the tip of the iceberg.

Agreed, but enabling folks to get there makes it possible.

Musk doesn't have to build the colony to have made it possible, and it seems to be the thing his attention is genuinely invested in.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by chx on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:29PM (#32030825)
> Agreed, but enabling folks to get there makes it possible.

It doesn't. Getting a few people to Mars alive does not a colony make. And even that sentence is misleading because while getting to Mars orbit is certainly challenging but that's something I can see humanity capable of overcoming with current technology. Although we never kept humans in space for 2-3 years before which is just the travel there so we don't really have any idea what will happen to them but let's pretend.

Landing very fragile humans on Mars, however, is a much, much formidable challenge. The heaviest object we have managed to soft land on Mars, so far, is the 1025kg Perseverance rover. The Apollo Lunar Module carried two people and was 4280kg dry weight. Of course, you don't need to ascend -- getting those people back to Earth is not even considered by anyone sane -- but still, it shows there's a problem here. And that was two people. And you need everything for them to live on the surface, including air and water and that's even more weight that you can't just slam those into surface at the ~20 000 km/h the spacecraft will approach either.

It would be just about infinitely better if he tried to show off with climate change combat projects. If you want to show off, a vast forest would be much better, much easier to achieve and so much cheaper. He could build storage for renewable energy, these are also sufficiently massive to be good for showing off. And so forth. There are easy but significant things one such as him could do. For a more formidable challenge, elevate the Brazilian people so they don't need to burn the Amazon.

We already have a terraformed planet but the climate is changing in a way which is incompatible with the way humanity currently exists. It would be prudent to change both -- while the change is inevitable it could be slowed and humanity could change too. Once we bought time, we can wait until material and other sciences make space elevators possible and then we can send robots to Mars to build a space elevator too and then we can begin to think about colonizing Mars.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by ceejayoz on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:53PM (#32031051)
If Starship can get reusable, zero-disposable flight working, and on-orbit refueling, all of those issues become quite surmountable. Mass to Mars (or the Moon) ceases to be "what's the most we can fling in a single launch", and the flight can be shorter if you can depart Earth orbit with a lot more fuel. I can't find numbers for the current iteration, but they were batting around 90-110 day transits with the older ITS proposal.

You start talking about being able to build propellant depots in Earth orbit, build Aldrin cyclers, send large amounts of supplies (or even a whole station on the slow, efficient route) in advance to Mars, etc.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by chx on Saturday July 09, 2022 @12:17AM (#32031605)
Did you miss the problem with the landing alone?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by OrvalWintermute on Saturday July 09, 2022 @03:23AM (#32032707)
Mars landing of objects is now a TRL9 problem that has been solved already, and the science has moved forward greatly [1]

Recent rover landings happened at what, < 1 M/S ? which is well within the capacity of the human body.

Considering that Mars atmosphere is substantially thinner, and gravity there much weaker, landing there would be different from Earth anyways.

We are not currently employing any of the more cost efficient methods of getting things to orbit in the first place, for large scale missions of epic size, nor are we currently employing the most efficient propulsion types.

The way I see it, the biggest problem is not one actually being discussed which are the longterm effects on the human body of living on a planet without a protective atmosphere, and protective magnetic field [2]. If getting mass to space becomes less of a financial constraint due to more efficient launch mechanisms, then, shielding would much less of an issue because mass in space would be cheaper [3]

I think that much of these problems come down to the huge capital cost, and unsolved problems around low cost launches; the novel technologies that need to be developed & turned into a new space launch system, and no, i am not talking about traditional rockets.

[1] https://engineering.stanford.edu/magazine/article/safe-landi...

[2] https://www.nuclear-power.com/nuclear-engineering/radiation-...

[3] https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2019/how-nasa-protects-...

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by ceejayoz on Saturday July 09, 2022 @09:09AM (#32034733)
There’s no problem with landing. The weight limitations you mention are entirely a factor if the current “it has to all fit in one rocket launch” limitation.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by unity1001 on Friday July 08, 2022 @11:36PM (#32031358)
Our current technology is capable of doing everything you listed and more. The problem is their cost. There is no point to doing it while the cost is this great and there is absolutely no monetary return from doing it. And Musk's effort has been for reducing that cost so that he could do it with the capital he has.

If need be, large countries that have the technology like China, Russia, US could do it. But it would still require gigantic amounts of capital allocation and effort at this stage. So no one will do it. The biggest thing that is happening right now is China and Russia signing an agreement to build a base on the moon. (yes)

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by chx on Saturday July 09, 2022 @12:16AM (#32031602)
Did you miss the problem with the landing alone?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by WalterBright on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:42PM (#32030471)
You can't really compare what the government spends to accomplish something with what a private company would need to spend.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by bckr on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:56PM (#32029650)
Except that Mars is a terrible location for a settlement in the next 100 years.

Bezos has the right idea, leaning into O'Neil cylinders.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by ceejayoz on Friday July 08, 2022 @08:15PM (#32029856)
Bezos needs to learn to crawl before he runs a marathon.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by iab on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:18PM (#32030736)
Books -> 1-click shopping -> AWS —> Dyson Sphere
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by bckr on Saturday July 09, 2022 @01:11PM (#32037157)
You missed the most important step:

"???"

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by kamaal on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:32PM (#32030859)
The hard part is getting significant amounts of material into space. Once you do that you can do anything there. Go to Mars, build O'Neil cylinders or even make your own asteroid mining factories up there.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by bckr on Saturday July 09, 2022 @01:13PM (#32037177)
I recommend checking out O'Neill's book The High Frontier where he lays out a plan for how to do this.

Keyword: regolith

Mars is at least 10x harder. The path to space settlement is in our own backyard.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by mkr-hn on Friday July 08, 2022 @11:39PM (#32031378)
The only catch is you have to build five of them.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by pclmulqdq on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:24PM (#32030331)
Someone's going to get people on Mars, but it's not going to be Elon Musk.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by FeepingCreature on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:16PM (#32030714)
Nobody else is making a serious try.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by zem on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:59PM (#32028881)
wait till he discovers Mars is full of bots!
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by cozzyd on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:38PM (#32029432)
100% of active users on Mars are bots!
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by toomuchtodo on Friday July 08, 2022 @08:53PM (#32030181)
Notice of termination of Mars colonization efforts.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by johannes1234321 on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:07PM (#32028985)
> It's a shame that this guy is the figure that will take humanity to Mars.

Not humanity. Only selected ones.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by cycomanic on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:49PM (#32031009)
There was an interesting critique of Musks futurism by Tom Nicholas. It definitely gave me another perspective.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OtKEetGy2Y

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by nerdix on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:09PM (#32030233)
You don't want to be on that train anyway. It only goes one way. And it will likely result in a premature death.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by tsimionescu on Saturday July 09, 2022 @12:54AM (#32031842)
> And it will likely result in a premature death.

Likely is putting it quite mildly - it's likely to cause a premature death in the same way that throwing yourself off the empire state building is likely to cause some injury.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by mwint on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:31PM (#32029341)
This comment is like someone saying they’re eating pizza, and responding “you’re only eating a few slices”
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by themitigating on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:37PM (#32029410)
I think you mean the benefit of technological advances from a mars trip.

A mars trip itself is only for those going. Most people don't get a part of it unlike pizza which can be divided

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by mwint on Friday July 08, 2022 @08:12PM (#32029822)
So, how would you define “taking humanity to Mars”? Surely you don’t have to take all the humans to Mars.

We’d all agree that Europeans (non-exclusively) colonized the Americas, but not all Europeans went and not all had the opportunity.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by themitigating on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:16PM (#32030275)
You compared a tangible item being divided amoung people to an achievement for humanity as a species. They are two different things.

That's my issue

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by mwint on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:15PM (#32030701)
The Americas were divided among people (original inhabitants, and later colonies), and many countries & people weren’t recipients. But I’d still say that humanity has reached America.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by raldi on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:14PM (#32030259)
Your second sentence makes no sense. If the board and shareholders sell the company, "they" aren't owned by anyone. The board is no longer the board and the shareholders are no longer the shareholders. They're just a bunch of regular people holding big bags of money.

It's like if you sell your car to a dangerous driver: you have no financial stake in whether they go on to crash it.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by dragonwriter on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:46PM (#32030500)
> It also depends on what the Twitter board and shareholders want. Will they want to get bought out and owned by someone who clearly doesn't want to own the company, and may run it into the ground out of spite?

Uh, yes?

The shareholders, and the board as their agents, care about the company as a means to an end: and that end is making money. They’ve already concluded the sale achieves that goal.

If Musk wants to burn the company to the ground after they cash out, they don't care.

Heck, some of them may invest in competitors after the sale banking on that to make even more money.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by vitaflo on Friday July 08, 2022 @08:14PM (#32029845)
The board already willfully agreed to sell him the company and the deal is even better now than at the time they made it. Why would they also want to drop the deal?

The notion that the board is all of a sudden worried about what Musk might do with Twitter is about as silly as Musk thinking he can weasel his way out of a binding contract he already signed.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by mlyle on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:20PM (#32030306)
> but others will be more interested in protecting the future of Twitter as a company and platform.

Almost everyone votes their economic interest.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by astrange on Sunday July 10, 2022 @10:56PM (#32051671)
If you talk to random people in a democracy, they can't vote their interest even if they wanted to, because they don't know what's actually affected by politics and what isn't.

Some people switched to culture/values voting (ie, telling other people what to do), some people just enjoy winning and so vote for whoever they think is going to win.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by mlyle on Monday July 11, 2022 @01:15PM (#32058866)
I find these responses strange. I never was talking about voting in a democracy. I was talking about how shareholders vote shares in public companies.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by cycomanic on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:51PM (#32031031)
Except for many (most) middle and lower class voters?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by mlyle on Monday July 11, 2022 @01:15PM (#32058869)
I find these responses strange. I never was talking about voting in a democracy. I was talking about how shareholders vote shares in public companies.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by runarberg on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:36PM (#32028549)
Never underestimate the incompetence of the average human. Doubly so if they are rich and powerful. In fact if a master plan has several fatal flaws on closer inspection, then that’s just evidence that the perpetrator just didn’t think it all through before executing.

If you watch an amateur chess game you’ll find that most players actually have some master plan, but don’t have the skills to see the flaws, or even if the plan is perfect, they don’t have the skills to play it through either.

My sniff test for any conspiracy theory actually involves incompetence. The more competent the plan and execution need to be, the less likely it is to be a conspiracy.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by avalys on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:22PM (#32029209)
I don't see how you can simultaneously believe that this is some 4D chess move from Musk to allow him to cleverly liquidate his Tesla holdings without tanking the stock - and also believe he is too incompetent to make sure he could actually back out of the Twitter deal which he never intended to complete in the first place.

The fact that his supposed plan here has some flaws is not _further_ evidence that it was planned from the beginning, that's absurd.

It seems much more likely that buying Twitter was just an impulsive decision for him that he is now regretting and looking for a way out of.

I agree with you that many supposed conspiracies require too much competence in order to pull off, and can usually be dismissed as impossible to achieve in practice. But it doesn't follow that, as a consequence, any action that would be incompetent as part of a conspiracy should be considered evidence that a conspiracy exists.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by runarberg on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:41PM (#32029463)
I don’t know if you’ve ever played chess against a more skilled player. But when I play, I usually think I have a sure way of taking my opponents rook for a knight, only to realize too late that I’m stuck in a trap.

You only need to be competent enough to realize how markets can be manipulated to initiate a conspiracy, however successfully executing one requires a whole new master level of skill set. Off course the people with such skill set exist (as evidenced by the numerous market manipulation schemes successfully executed in today’s business world) and if Musk was smart he would hire such an expert to scheme it for him.

What we might be witnessing here is a business person that is smart enough to realize that market can be manipulated, and see a position to where they can execute such a manipulation, but not competent enough to execute a non-trivial plan without flaws. And worse not smart enough to hire a person with the correct skill set to do it for him.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by abc_lisper on Friday July 08, 2022 @11:20PM (#32031241)
> The more competent the plan and execution need to be, the less likely it is to be a conspiracy.

That’s a great point. Thank you :)

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by aetherson on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:46PM (#32028689)
What is a theory you have dismissed because it seems too competent?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by espadrine on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:22PM (#32029212)
For me, flat Earth. The sheer skill necessary to bribe or convince so many governments to gaslight their population, the incredible optics and geodesics work necessary to fake a curved horizon in a plane window and have consistent flight durations, and the maintenance of shadow power across millenia, paints the picture of a group of people way beyond what human competence can achieve.

Of course, there are simpler examples, like John Titor, or Pierre de Fermat’s last theorem proof that he would have done all in his head.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by runarberg on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:01PM (#32028913)
The fake moon landing conspiracy is a good example. Then number of people involved would be pretty big, and the science is complicated. The logistics behind such a big secret operation requires such skill that it is hard to believe anyone would be able to pull it off. If the moon landing was truly fake surely they would have messed up somewhere.

On the other hand many things went wrong in the actual moon landing. There were liftoffs that failed, experiments that went nowhere, targets that were missed, and even people that died. The actual moon landing was a hard task they succeeded at while making a ton of mistakes in the process, just like humans do in the real world when we are at our best.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by rsynnott on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:19PM (#32029164)
The "massive rocket" is also an issue: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sE-tpiAiiHo
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by aetherson on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:07PM (#32028990)
Okay, I agree that the fake moon landing conspiracy would have involved an excessive amount of competence to believe.

That seems pretty different from, "If your entire plan is to back out of a contract, add a clause to the contract that lets you back out of it."

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by runarberg on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:24PM (#32029238)
Indeed it is different. My point was simply that incompetence is not evidence against conspiracy. My sniff test was simply emphasizing this point. Further, a sniff test is—by definition—not supposed to be your only marker in evaluating a theory, it is merely supposed to be a marker determining if evaluating further evidence is even worth your time.

The conspiracy theory that Musk is using this twitter scheme to manipulate the markets in his favor does not fail any sniff tests that I’m aware of.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by notahacker on Friday July 08, 2022 @08:29PM (#32029972)
It's a pretty universal reason to dismiss or at least cast serious doubt on conspiracy theories. A close cousin of Ockham's Razor and Hanlon's Law

The amount of competence required to prepare a controlled demolition of a 110 storey trade center which is occupied 24/7 and full of cameras without anyone noticing and associating this prep work with the much publicised plane crashes that happened afterwards would be staggering, even before considering the insanity of such a scheme.

At the risk of opening a can of worms, the best evidence against the considerably more plausible "lab-leak" COVID theory is that manufacturing an alternative chain of evidence that convinces most unconnected foreign experts of an alternative theory (which still points at Wuhan and Chinese market regulations) when they have plenty of reason to find fault with it requires a lot of competence, as well as totally the opposite approach to China's usual way of suppressing stories.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by nerdponx on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:50PM (#32029576)
Not GP, but chemtrails and flat earth are obvious ones.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by at-fates-hands on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:28PM (#32028423)
His legal team maintains Twitter is in material breach of multiple provisions of the Agreement and appears to have made false and misleading representations.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000110465922...

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by eropple on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:31PM (#32028473)
His legal team can maintain that the sky is a vibrant chartreuse, but that doesn't mean it's true.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by no_butterscotch on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:27PM (#32030353)
So what though?

Is Twitter going to spend the next few years litigating this just to force someone to buy the company that doesn't want to? Elon's team can drag this on and on.

What will happen to the value of Twitter's stock in the meantime? What will happen to the value of working at Twitter? It'll become a zombie company.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by tsimionescu on Saturday July 09, 2022 @01:02AM (#32031887)
Yes, that's exactly what will happen. If Twitter were to say now "OK, let's forget this whole thing happened" the stock would drop massively: not only are they losing any chance at the $44B buyout, they are also admitting they (1) lied in their current contract, and (2) likely have huge bot issues that they would rather not litigate.

The only option for Twitter to continue existing is to sue Musk for the amount he promised.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by lightsandaounds on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:31PM (#32030853)
What will happen to the price of the stock is that it will be inflated over the "true price" by risk adjusted premium of the buyout.

Stock price = "stock price without Elon owning it" + "Elons premium" * "likelihood of Elon losing the lawsuit and being forced to buy the company"

That likelihood should never be less than 0, so I think this legal fight would only help the twitter stock price.

I guess I am assuming that the "true price" is actually lower than what Elon offered for it.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by nmfisher on Saturday July 09, 2022 @09:36AM (#32034957)
It's worth north of $20B to Twitter shareholders and they have an (almost) rock-solid case. You can bet your ass they're going to spend the next few years to fight for it.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by ceejayoz on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:30PM (#32028456)
Sure, but that’s bullshit. Twitter carefully couched each of this sort of statement in “we might be wrong” disclaimers.

It’s not like he came up with the “they’re all bots” theory after committing.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by politician on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:36PM (#32030429)
The downvotes on this comment are the clearest evidence that people will downvote verifiable facts presented neutrally if they don’t like the facts, the people or companies involved in the fact.

The karma hit at-fates-hands takes because people are irrational is collateral damage.

Have an upvote.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by myko on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:51PM (#32030528)
The downvotes are most likely because it's a specious claim that Elon's legal team is making, not supported by fact. He waived the due diligence phase. Twitter provided his team with information. He's just trying to get out of the deal because he made an impulsive and stupid decision.

Parroting the statements of his legal team without adding the context around those statements is going to garner downvotes.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by openthc on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:02PM (#32030595)
Isn't the context the link to the EDGAR documents?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by politician on Saturday July 09, 2022 @10:45AM (#32035563)
Neutral TLDR summaries are viewed as a good thing on HN. Given the rest of these comments, the theme here is pure hate for the man.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by slg on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:59PM (#32027931)
But Tesla stock did drop after the announcement of the deal. I think that is the real reasoning behind him quickly getting cold feet. He probably thought Twitter would be a fun side project, but the backlash from people in regards to Tesla, SpaceX, and just the general public meant it would be more costly both to his reputation and financially beyond just the sticker price. That took the fun out of it so he has been looking for ways to escape the deal ever since.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by jacquesm on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:00PM (#32027948)
The question isn't really whether it dropped or not but whether the perception was that it would have dropped more without that fig leaf.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by slg on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:05PM (#32028038)
This isn’t the first time he has sold Tesla shares. He sold billions of dollars worth last year too. I’m not sure the exact dates to do the math, but did those sales cause a immediate drop of over 10% like the Twitter announcement?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by jacquesm on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:08PM (#32028073)
That's not the right question, the question is the perception of the difference between selling $44B of stock outright or selling it with the goal of buying Twitter.

What actually happened isn't relevant. What is relevant is whether he may have thought it would work better. Tricky to prove.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by slg on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:13PM (#32028171)
We agree that he didn’t suspect the backlash from buying Twitter. I think our disagreement is just that you think he expected a large backlash from selling Tesla shares and I’m not sure history really suggests that was something to be concerned about.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by robbiep on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:30PM (#32028438)
he wasn't (or isn't) aiming to sell the stock, he was/is aiming to finance the purchase using his Tesla stock as security. So this line of argument... Doesn't really make sense?

This is all publicly available. Due to leverage, he faced ruin if Tesla fell below X (whatever X is) if he funded it all himself. So he opened his side of the deal up to other people, and allowed other large shareholders to come inside his tent - which reduced his exposure. Then the market dropped 15%.

Matt Levine has an excellent series of newsletters covering it.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by mensetmanusman on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:01PM (#32027967)
But he has been saying Tesla was way over valued for over a year…
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by thereare5lights on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:29PM (#32028434)
> but the backlash from people in regards to Tesla, SpaceX, and just the general public

There's no way he didn't foresee this.

It would be shocking if he is lacking in self-awareness to that extent.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by formerkrogemp on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:11PM (#32029053)
> It would be shocking if he is lacking in self-awareness to that extent.

'Ol Musky missing self-awareness? Surely, you jest Mr. Spock!

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by Sebb767 on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:05PM (#32030206)
There's a lot of things Elon is not, but he definitely is a smart business man and he can manage hype.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by elliekelly on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:34PM (#32030418)
His present situation with a multi-billion dollar agreement he entered based on hype and is now very desperate to exit seems to suggest his hype management skills have room for improvement.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by tsimionescu on Saturday July 09, 2022 @01:07AM (#32031923)
He typically creates massive hype, well over what he could possibly deliver, not sure I've ever seen him temper hype.

Just remember the launch of Tesla auto-pilot, where he was promising full self driving within a year or two, so good that you would let your car work as a taxi while you don't need it and it would become a passive stream of income so great you would see your investment back in around a year! He actually said "our goal is to make Ilit financially irresponsible to buy any other car". This is not a man who "manages hype".

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by thesausageking on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:52PM (#32029595)
Note that Josh has been a huge Tesla (and Musk) critic for years, starting as far back as this 2010 tweet:

https://twitter.com/wolfejosh/status/19430106783023104

He's called Tesla a "fraud" and that it would collapse many, many times while it's just kept going up and up and up over the last decade. For example:

https://twitter.com/wolfejosh/status/1178486986790854658

https://twitter.com/wolfejosh/status/1074055027021369344

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by FireBeyond on Friday July 08, 2022 @11:53PM (#32031450)
And?

Is it Josh's fault that the market has listened to Musk when he's said, every year since 2016, that FSD is "coming, this year, for real"?

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by openthc on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:14PM (#32028193)
More than one financial analysit/money manager has floated this idea in our circle. It seems reasonalble; an pointing to the last time he sold a bunch (11B?) and told everyone it was to pay his taxes. They seem to think it was to just convert some high-risk (TSLA) to low risk (Cash, etc).
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by the_biot on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:37PM (#32028571)
That sounds reasonably logical, but by what measure of logic is overpaying for Twitter, of all assets, a good deal? There are surely better companies to do this sort of thing with, and end up with an actually valuable asset at the end of it.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by openthc on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:59PM (#32028871)
To over simplify: it's the trick of a illusionist; look over there! Something interesting (now switch the rabbit for the dove or whatever). So while GenPop is looking at this noisy deal; he's able to shuffle around money in three(?) ways -- where the net result is to reduce the TSLA holdings w/o too much penalty (or somethign). I'm not smart or rich enough to fully understand. The logic is distraction to execute a big dollar amount shift in equity positions.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by Sebb767 on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:15PM (#32030265)
According to this theory, he never intended to buy Twitter. He just used the offer to liquidate stock without raising too many eyebrows and now he's backing out, with a few billion extra in cash and, if everything works out for him, not even a termination fee.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by spfzero on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:55PM (#32028811)
I agree with you. If the object was to convert overvalued stock, you would not just convert it to another overvalued stock, right?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by macintux on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:21PM (#32030309)
Notice that he is not, in fact, converting it.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by entropicgravity on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:07PM (#32028064)
The Go masters insist that every stone must have at least two reasons for its placement.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by fisherjeff on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:31PM (#32028462)
Sure but then why skip diligence? That would be the ideal time to sell lots of Tesla stock and eventually say “You know what? Nah” without any sticky legal issues.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by pclmulqdq on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:28PM (#32030359)
Most people do not liquidate billions of assets while waiting for due diligence to go through. They wait for diligence, then liquidate the assets.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by fisherjeff on Saturday July 09, 2022 @12:05AM (#32031528)
Well yes, but most people also intend to actually go through with an acquisition
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by bandyaboot on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:43PM (#32028636)
Musk wanted to be warrior king of the internet edge lords. He was not playing chess.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by Mvandenbergh on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:59PM (#32029681)
AKA the Lou Pai option, which is an extremely funny (and almost certainly untrue) theory that Pai deliberately got caught by his wife with a stripper so that he would be "forced" to liquidate his Enron stock which he allegedly already knew would soon be worthless without having to explain the timing of that to a court later.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by MichaelCollins on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:01PM (#32027973)
> a ruse to liquidate Tesla stock en masse without Tesla hodlers getting suspicious and tanking the inflated stock price.

Couldn't he just have said "SpaceX needs more cash" or something like that?

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by pclmulqdq on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:29PM (#32030372)
That would be implying that a Musk company was in trouble. They constantly are in trouble, but he can never say it or else it breaks the fiction that Musk companies are predestined to be amazingly successful.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by FeepingCreature on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:18PM (#32030734)
Didn't he famously say it about SpaceX last year?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by pclmulqdq on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:34PM (#32030875)
It was leaked from an internal memo. He admitted it about tesla a few years ago now that tesla is in okay financial shape.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by napier on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:49PM (#32027753)
Neither of these hypotheses precludes the other.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by caminante on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:05PM (#32028045)
No? "Cold feet" is impulsive. Whereas a disguised liquidation is calculated.

Regardless, the fall in share price likely drove the outcome.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by BenoitEssiambre on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:50PM (#32031019)
I also read somewhere that if Elon ran Twitter into the ground in the next decade, using it just to advertise Tesla cars, he would have paid an amount in line with what GM pays for advertising their cars (at least what they paid pre-pandemic) https://www.statista.com/statistics/286522/general-motors-ad....

It blows my mind how much (non Tesla) car companies spend just on advertising.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by freemint on Saturday July 09, 2022 @05:43PM (#32039574)
Well he pays for advertising. Tesla flame throwers, Tesla whistles and so on are campaigns.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by sulam on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:13PM (#32030684)
This is such a strange take. There's any number of more effective ways for Musk to justify selling some Tesla stock that aren't especially likely to tank it. On top of that, announcing his intent to buy Twitter did in fact get factored into the stock quite rapidly, in the negative direction as you'd assume, because Twitter is not seen as an especially good investment while Tesla has been.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by hertzrat on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:16PM (#32030273)
I don’t buy it. Musk compulsively creates huge and innovative companies. To liquidate stock, he could just as easily have just waited until his next big thing and sold off his stock then, once again, in order to pay for a non-Tesla venture; and then either used the money for the company, or bailed on the new company. Involving Twitter doesn’t make sense and is unnecessary
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by IAmGraydon on Friday July 08, 2022 @11:09PM (#32031159)
I tend to believe it's something along these lines. The real question is why is he going to such great lengths to liquidate stock? He is not the only high profile billionaire who has recently come up with sudden circumstances to justify the liquidation of massive amounts of stock.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by imranhou on Saturday July 09, 2022 @03:37PM (#32038525)
I doubt that is the case, because of such a flimsy reason chosen to back out of the twitter deal, if the plan was all along to create a ruse deal, I think the exit would have been better planned
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by divbzero on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:14PM (#32030692)
He’s not the only one to float this possibility. It’s one of the more plausible explanations if you take the assumption that Musk was acting rationally with forethought.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by mikkergp on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:12PM (#32028148)
Couldn't he have sold Tesla as part of an offer that still had due diligence and was in negotiations rather than waiving due diligence and committing to a deal?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by waynesonfire on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:57PM (#32030568)
why do people assume that all aspects of this transaction and negotiation have been happening in the public and thus qualify for all these folks here to make claims like they know what's going on.

People here don't know what claims in entirety were made by either party, and thus, it's impossible to speculate. This is what courts are for and Elon, and his team, are not idiots.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by qaq on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:56PM (#32027865)
Wolfe has being on anti Musk crusade for a long time.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by throwaway29812 on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:56PM (#32027879)
That's a strange way of saying he was right.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by ChildOfChaos on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:08PM (#32028085)
There is zero evidence that he is right.

All we know are the facts, he agreed to buy twitter and now he is trying to walk away from the deal.

There could be multiple reasons for that, including what he is saying on face value or a dozen other scenarios.

He could still be wanting to buy twitter and use this as a bargaining tool to lower the price.

You can say he was right, once we know the full facts which will be once this plays out and since it doesn't really affect any of us, speculating right now is simply taking part in silly gossip.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by majormajor on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:11PM (#32029046)
It's incredibly implausible that it's what he's saying on face value because a million other people seem to understand what Twitter was referring to around monetized monthly users or whatnot, and the idea that he didn't at first and then realized this other number was actually make-or-break is ludicrous.

Like, you can sign up for free. What's gonna prevent fake accounts in that case?

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by kmonsen on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:45PM (#32030493)
Yeah and everyone knew for months this day would come. After the stocks started falling in the spring there was no way he would not try to weasel out.

In my mind this is an insane conspiracy theory that fails occam razor, he was high and said we wanted to buy Twitter. People made fun of him so he dug in to prove all those stupid people. There is no complex deal needed here.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by throwaway29812 on Monday July 11, 2022 @02:46PM (#32060084)
Occam razor is Musk made an offer at the height of the market, now he doesn't want to honor the legally binding contract he entered into because he'd lose 20b right away.

Not that complicated really.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by qaq on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:02PM (#32027992)
I have no clue if he is right or not
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by jacquesm on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:56PM (#32027877)
But is it true?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by qaq on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:02PM (#32027981)
I would imagine there are cheaper ways to accomplish the same goal
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by jacquesm on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:03PM (#32027997)
That still does not answer the question.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by qaq on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:06PM (#32028056)
How would you find a definitive answer?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by jacquesm on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:08PM (#32028090)
That is a very good question, monitor the SEC for clues, if they bring some kind of action (which should either happen soon now that he has made it official he wants to back out or not at all).
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by ImPostingOnHN on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:45PM (#32028675)
given the SEC's regular lack of enforcement, their inaction would not be evidence of lack of wrongdoing
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by jacquesm on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:57PM (#32028846)
With counterparties like Musk it doesn't pay to try to go for some minor infraction, they will just lawyer their way out of it or stretch it forever, but if it is solid enough (and $44B might just do it) then it may well wake up the dragon. To be fair, someone would likely have to ask them nicely to do so because they feel that they have lost a lot of money due to Musk's actions.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by Sebb767 on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:20PM (#32030307)
Which ones? Basically any way of him dumping billions of Tesla stock would've immediately popped the price. With this action, not only did he get plausible deniability, he also got a massive distraction on top.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by qaq on Saturday July 09, 2022 @12:53AM (#32031833)
Create Mars Foundation or do any other shenanigans rich people normally do.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by 01100011 on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:26PM (#32030806)
Not just Elon but his brother as well.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by Mo3 on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:56PM (#32027878)
I mean, it didn't necessarily take Josh Wolfe to see this as a viable possibility.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by marricks on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:59PM (#32027924)
That’s immensely believable, I wonder how he got someone people onboard to be help him fund it though. It’s even more of a stretch but maybe the rest of them wanted more liquidity too?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by TillE on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:45PM (#32027681)
I suspect the initial decision was something like "hey I could actually just buy Twitter, that would be funny". It's less clear to me why he almost immediately started trying to back out. It's probably a waste of a significant chunk of money, but is that all?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by 988747 on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:47PM (#32027710)
>> It's less clear to me why he almost immediately started trying to back out.

That's what you do when you sober up and realize what a mess you've made.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by civilized on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:02PM (#32028931)
Perhaps underneath the 420 jokes lies the reality that he's high fairly often.

I am sure the offer price of $54.20 was a joke. With Musk, the appearance of those digits is never an accident.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by martin8412 on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:36PM (#32029404)
Wine and Ambien is his goto..
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by dubswithus on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:29PM (#32030835)
Is it?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by cowtools on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:56PM (#32027869)
Well, if the purpose of buying twitter was to improve the user experience of internet users and advance the doctrine of free speech, then why not just spend that same amount of money building your own twitter (mastodon instance or something) and use your publicity to attract users?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by CoryAlexMartin on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:28PM (#32028414)
An established social media platform's most valuable asset is the size of its userbase. Even with the reach of Musk, I think it would be hard to attract a large enough userbase to make the product more compelling than Twitter.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by TheOtherHobbes on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:45PM (#32028678)
An established platform's most valuable asset is the data of the userbase.

Twitter can leverage a huge amount of data about personal preferences, interests, relationship status, political leanings, income, usage profiles, message habits and content, social graph, and location.

If you specifically wanted to clamp down on certain demographics, it would be an excellent way to locate them.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by rtkwe on Friday July 08, 2022 @11:11PM (#32031177)
Can't have a large data trove on your users without users. A huge part of a successful social network is sufficient adoption. If the people your users want to follow aren't on the platform they don't have a real reason to be there. It's a major hurdle for any new social platform and a lot fail at that step.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by simonw on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:21PM (#32030769)
If spending a ton of money was a reliable way to build a new social network we would all be having this conversation on Google+.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by Slartie on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:15PM (#32028218)
"Musk Social"?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by cowtools on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:18PM (#32028258)
The difference would be that musk's following is more moderate, and they might respect peering agreements unlike Gab or Truth Social.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by ChildOfChaos on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:11PM (#32028128)
because that doesn't work.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by Vespasian on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:18PM (#32028259)
Well maybe he realised that in the best case he would govern over Twitter 2.0 with extra toxicity and in the worst case be the proud owner of another cesspool of assholes, pedophiles and people with violent ideas.

I don't believe for a second that Elon Musk really cares about free speech for anyone but himself and he is right now probably not limited by twitter's policy but by other externalities

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by cowtools on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:44PM (#32028643)
Pedophiles? I'm pretty sure they would be forced to take down child porn. I mean, it's a public forum. If you are publicly announcing that you are pedophile or terrorist, that sounds like bad news for you.

In any case, does twitter not already have a lot of "assholes" and people with "violent ideas"?

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by Vespasian on Saturday July 09, 2022 @12:41AM (#32031763)
Yes he would (sorry if I went a bit over the top there).

My point being that I don't trust Elon Musk to make better moderation decisions than whoever is in charge right now.

Past attempts of social media with low barriers of what is allowed have absolutely turned out worse than Twitter if you ask me(e.g. 4chan, 8chan, gab etc) That's why I think the best case is "Twitter but more aligned with whatever Elon Musk thinks at the moment"

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by jacquesm on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:10PM (#32028120)
This seems to happen with some regularity in Musk's timeline.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by stingrae on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:00PM (#32027958)
It also hit at a point when Tesla's stock price started a rapid decent. The Twitter deal is becoming a larger and larger percentage of his net worth.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by labster on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:50PM (#32027770)
Stocks went down almost immediately after the deal across the tech sector. Financing got harder, he would have sell off a lot of TSLA at a discount to complete the deal.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by alasdair_ on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:22PM (#32028330)
The market went to shit almost right after the point where he made his offer. Tesla took a dive at the same time. A lot of the loan he took out is against his tesla stock.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by towaway15463 on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:54PM (#32028806)
Did everyone forget about the massive hit the stock market took right after the deal was announced? Maybe that has something to do with it.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by idiotsecant on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:15PM (#32028211)
It makes more sense if you assume that Elon Musk is both a sometimes successful businessman and also suffering from unmanaged bipolar disorder.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by soganess on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:45PM (#32028664)
Can we not jump to blaming a person's bad choices on the first medical condition that fits? I know Musk has said he has bipolar disorder, and I'm not trying to discount that.

I'm just saying what if... gasp... he simply did something foolish? The blame-it-on-the-bipolar out reinforces the narrative of an infallible person who only make mistakes because of a medical condition. Take that line of thinking one step further and you are now fully onboard the bipolar stigma train.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by pas on Saturday July 09, 2022 @05:58AM (#32033507)
A mistake or doing something foolish is going out in shorts in the winter and then getting a cold.

He spent days/weeks/months on setting up this deal, he became obsessed with it at some point.

(Hopefully) no one is "blaming" it on the bipolar. It's simply something consistent with bipolar. (But it's also consistent with rich people getting obsessed with something and then spending way too much resources on it.)

> reinforces the narrative

That narrative is simply bad and pushed by people who have no idea what they are talking about. Musk's previous instances of risk taking (that "all" turned out to be fine) is also perfectly consistent with bipolar. (Of course if you look at it then it turns out that he took many risks that made very little sense, like when he talked about taking Tesla private, the infamous funding secured tweet.)

And of course just a label like bipolar means (almost) nothing, these spectrum disorders are complex (and there are usually other comorbidities at the same time, just with different severity), we don't know how he is treating/medicating/managing it, or is it even the right diagnosis or not. Or he could have simply lied.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by CogitoCogito on Saturday July 09, 2022 @07:09AM (#32033886)
> It's simply something consistent with bipolar.

It's also consistent with making a mistake.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by pas on Saturday July 09, 2022 @03:30PM (#32038468)
... you can call it a mistake, but that emphasizes an irrelevant fact. everyone makes mistakes. rich people do small and big mistakes. we hear about the very stupid (regular florida man) and very expensive mistakes (trader accidentally entry more zeros, etc).

and of course we all hear about the top of the Forbes billionaire list mistakes, the wework scandal and the other questionable decisions of Masayoshi Son, how "the crazier someone it's more likely they get money from Thiel", etc.

but even on top of all these this one easily takes the cake.

yes, in isolation it's a "mistake", but luckily we have plenty of context for it.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by CogitoCogito on Saturday July 09, 2022 @04:48PM (#32039167)
> everyone makes mistakes. rich people do small and big mistakes.

So then you agree that it being a mistake is entirely plausible and that it having anything to do with being bipolar is pure speculation?

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by pas on Tuesday July 12, 2022 @11:11AM (#32071123)
I'm trying to communicate that mental/personality disorders don't work like that.

It's a very costly and stubborn mistake either way and he has (or hasn't) bipolar either way.

Even in the most severe substance dependence cases some people can override their short term wants (eg. they don't go and mug people to get money for their next fix), while there's a clear pattern of this behavior in others. (But it's what we expect, since we define one by the other.) So in both of those instances, it was their mental state, but was it the altered part or the underlying base state that let the dependence to form in the first part? It's really not separable.

One explains the other, but there's no direction, no proximate causal relationship. At best there is some predictive power, ie. if someone goes off their meds, or stressors increase they will show behavior consistent with this or that. (But in general everyone will make more mistakes when they have more stress in their life. Who would have guessed, I know.)

Yet these categories (diagnoses) are not useless. They communicate behavior patterns, things to look for, things to be mindful of and try to manage.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by appletrotter on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:48PM (#32028728)
Do you have any experience with bipolar?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by crmd on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:34PM (#32028513)
Agree 100%. I’ve never met Elon but his online behavior in the run up to and immediately after the Twitter deal sure seemed hypomanic to me.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by AngryData on Saturday July 09, 2022 @12:05AM (#32031532)
Or it is far more likely that he isn't so much smarter than everyone else like he pretends and regularly makes mistakes like anybody else.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by tempsy on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:39PM (#32027569)
This assumes he was serious about it at some point, instead of just cover to sell more Tesla shares and free marketing for himself.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by labster on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:48PM (#32027731)
Gosh, I hope he was serious at the point he signed a contract with a $1B penalty, or else he’s the world’s worst businessman.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by jiggawatts on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:51PM (#32027789)
If you want to move $40B, this is just a two percent transaction fee to avoid losing $200B by spooking the public investors.

That’s smart.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by shuckles on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:55PM (#32027845)
If that was his intent, it's fraud and has (in theory) criminal penalties.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by Hamuko on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:56PM (#32027874)
Judging by his dealings with the SEC, I don't feel like he respects the law all that much.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by jacquesm on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:59PM (#32027927)
I don't think the SEC cares very much what Elon respects or not, if they can nail him they will.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by rndgermandude on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:39PM (#32028588)
The "if they can nail him" seems like a big if to me.

If it is a scheme and he had no intention of ever actually buying twitter, the government would still have to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that he did it for this fraudulent reason. Or at least collect enough evidence to make him accept a plea deal for fear he could lose in court.

It would seem to me that him backing out now has a bunch of other very plausible explanations beyond "it was fraud all along", including the one this document states, that twitter breached their agreement by not providing the data he wanted to assess the prevalence of fake account himself. Or even that buying some "media company" is just what billionaires do[1], but him being "eccentric" he went in too hard and fast and is now backing out that he has seen the backslash and/or has done some actual due diligence, which would make him stupid and/or irresponsible but not criminal. All that to me seems like good ways for lawyers to claim there is "reasonable doubt" should he ever get charged with fraud, unless the government would happen to find some "smoking gun" piece of evidence.

And of course it assumes there is actually political will to nail him.

[1] https://www.investopedia.com/billionaires-who-bought-publish...

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by camjohnson26 on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:17PM (#32028243)
I think they’ve clearly shown that’s not true ever since they tried to take him back to court for clearly not having his tweets pre approved, despite the settlement over the “funding secured” tweet.

The man literally tweeted “Tesla stock is too high right now, imo” and nothing happened.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by jacquesm on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:45PM (#32028663)
I see some difference between tweeting stuff and signing binding agreements for purchase and using stock as collateral at a particular valuation.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by lovich on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:46PM (#32029519)
The tweeting came after signing binding agreements. You may disagree that the tweets or buying a business are the same level of seriousness, but the binding part of binding agreement is the rule of law part of society that makes all businesses work.

Musk not being reigned in by the SEC, when looked at in a vacuum is probably not the end of the world or the US economy, but it’s not in a vacuum. Everyone watching right now realizes that you can publicly enter into fraudulent business deals that you leave at convenience and there is nothing you can do about it unless you have have better lawyers. That is gonna be super degrading towards the ease of doing business

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by jquery on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:29PM (#32030834)
I read something that the Sec wants to nail him, but it's also afraid of losing a Supreme court case (a la the epa) that would totally gut its regulatory power. The entire idea of the Sec relies on the idea of the administrative state being constitutional, if they push too hard, our unfriendly reactionary supreme court might snap them, saying congress didn't explicitly say they could nail Musk for x, y, and z, even if all the other pillars of intent are proved.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by ShamelessC on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:32PM (#32028479)
He’s been skirting regulators and manipulating shareholders for a while now. If they “can nail him they will” was true they would have acted by now.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by jazzyjackson on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:33PM (#32028504)
the man has plot armor, he can do what he likes knowing that the Department of Defense is counting on him and his launch platform for the next generation of space warfare [0] - any efforts to reel him in will be met with a phone call like Alexander Acosta, "above your pay grade", "leave it alone"

[0] you didn't think Starlink's purpose is to let fisherman watch YouTube did you?

</tinfoil>

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by jacquesm on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:36PM (#32028551)
No reason why Elon has to own it for that to be so, in fact there is probably a long line of parties who could not wait to be take it off his hands.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by __derek__ on Friday July 08, 2022 @08:53PM (#32030185)
He's publicly committed securities fraud several times. The SEC has demonstrated repeatedly that it cannot nail him.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by edgyquant on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:00PM (#32028889)
How exactly would that be fraud?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by shuckles on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:09PM (#32029012)
The poster was positing that Elon lied about his intent to buy Twitter in order to manipulate Tesla investors, which is securities fraud. A public company executive is required to be transparent and honest about actions they take which might impact the company's stock price, especially if they're on the other side of a trade. Basically everyone who bought his $40b in stock or accepted it as pledged collateral could claim damages.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by Hamuko on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:58PM (#32027919)
I was under the assumption that he was not financing that $40B with just Tesla stock?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by chx on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:35PM (#32028531)
He was funding it with loans leveraged against his stock if I understand this correctly.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by micromacrofoot on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:55PM (#32027846)
that's smaller than a Venmo transaction fee (3%)
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by atlasunshrugged on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:50PM (#32027773)
Unless he thought he could be a big enough pain in the ass that Twitter folks would rather walk away from the deal and let him skate with a few million penalty while he liquidates Tesla stock with little repercussion to the share price (unfortunately for him, the market tanked in the interim and now his deal is an absolutely amazing one for Twitter shareholders so no way they let him walk away, $1B penalty isn't even an option as this was about outside interference)
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by shakow on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:50PM (#32027767)
> or else he’s the world’s worst businessman.

According to this hypothesis, he would still walk out with 7.5B in hard cash instead of 8.5B in Tesla share. I'm not in his boots, but I see how it can be seen as worth it.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by ImPostingOnHN on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:53PM (#32028793)
assuming he can come up with a convincing case that twitter made material lies, otherwise he walks out owning twitter for the cost specified in the contract
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by jacquesm on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:57PM (#32027897)
Not necessarily. That all depends on what he gained in return. Unless of course he ends up going to jail for fraud. It took a lot less for Martha Stewart.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by ClumsyPilot on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:51PM (#32027788)
I would like the consequences of his actions to catch up with him.

A Joe Boggs acting in this fgashion would have been taken to the cleaners long ago.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by duxup on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:08PM (#32028075)
> But it's unclear to me what he initially thought he was getting out of this.

The more it goes on it feels like “I don't like how twitter works, I’ll show them! <insert some less developed ideas of free speech on the internet>”

Later:

“Oh noes if I do what I want here the result might be bad…”

It just feels like a YOLO business deal that wasn’t thought out the more this goes on.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by redeeman on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:51PM (#32029589)
isnt it also possible he (some might say rather impulsively) decided to buy twitter, and then upon further investigating finds that his quick rationales no longer make sense if bot traffic indeed is way above 5%? that perhaps he feels that if it indeed is way above 5%, twitter is scamming?

is this just 100% unthinkable?

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by mlyle on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:13PM (#32030252)
Good luck with that. He tweeted, early on: "If our Twitter bid succeeds, we will defeat the spam bots or die trying!"

Then, when you conclude a definitive agreement without any provision for an "out" based on an issue that you've already acknowledged knowing about (and hoping to fix post-acq)-- you're kinda stuck with it.

I think the big issue is that with the movement in equities, it requires him to overpay for Twitter with Tesla stock that is much less valuable. Financing the deal got much harder for him.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by duxup on Friday July 08, 2022 @08:23PM (#32029919)
Wouldn’t he have made that part of the deal if that was a concern?

Fake followers and accounts and twitter’s battle with them is well known. Are we thinking he had no clue until after he signed on the dotted line?

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by redeeman on Friday July 08, 2022 @08:35PM (#32030013)
but it is part of the deal, given that twitter says "bot % is <=5", now he may believe that not to be the case. I think its concievable he may have acted before he fully considered whether that number indeed is true
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by duxup on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:34PM (#32030413)
Would he need to show it isn’t true?

And prove that’s enough of a reason to end the deal?

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by redeeman on Saturday July 09, 2022 @09:58AM (#32035142)
one would think so, so it will be interesting to see how he argues that, but the contract does include more things, including twitter having to provide anything required to obtain funding, which one would probably strongly be able to argue covers data to independently verify this
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by VectorLock on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:57PM (#32027889)
>But it's unclear to me what he initially thought he was getting out of this.

The best hypothesis I've heard is that he was trying to secure the raw materials that Tesla's stock price is made out of.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by bredren on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:43PM (#32028638)
This is perhaps meant to be tongue in cheek but Twitter is not just influential to Musk's concerns.

Twitter is influential to the concerns of Musk's competitors and potential regulators who might stand in his way.

Regardless of its deflated value, (all assets were way puffed up) Twitter is still extremely valuable.

Arguably, it is still positioned to be worth more than Facebook.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by VectorLock on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:22PM (#32029216)
"ha ha only serious."
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by NelsonMinar on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:58PM (#32027903)
What a blow to his already tarnished reputation. Imagine the conversation next time he tries to acquire a company.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by la64710 on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:56PM (#32028839)
Musk is a brown bag of shit.

He sent his selfie in a tweet response to Parag’s tweet explanation.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/abrambrown/2022/05/16/twitter-b...

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by redeeman on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:50PM (#32029567)
so... its just 100% unthinkable Musk is right?

edit: dont know why this had to be flagged. I guess some people really take personal offense in that elon musk might be correct in his thoughts about twitter daily bot %

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by la64710 on Thursday July 14, 2022 @01:31PM (#32099055)
Somebody being impolite or insulting to someone does not mean they are saying the truth. People who do that only do that to rile up their own group and divide people. Anyone can express their opinions objectively without insulting others.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by redact207 on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:42PM (#32027633)
My guess is he's hit that obscene level of wealth and realizes he is now beyond the controls of the system, and can therefore game it to his advantage.

When you can afford the best legal team money can buy and payoff the rest of the gatekeepers, then the game is simply to transfer wealth into your own pocket in bigger chunks.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by cormacrelf on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:50PM (#32027757)
You can’t bribe the judges in Delaware. They can force him to go through with the deal at the agreed price, now at a significant premium on market value, and it’s reasonably likely they will. This was not a genius move.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by tzs on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:29PM (#32028431)
It should be noted that this is largely because Musk agreed to it.

The normal remedy for breach of contract is for the breaching party to have to pay the other party monetary damages sufficient to put the other party in the monetary position they would have been in had the contract not been breached. Court generally will only order someone to actually go through with the contract (which is called specific performance) if monetary damages won't work for some reason.

For example if we have a contract for me to sell you a million microcontrollers at $1 each, which you are going to use to make a million units of some gadget that you are going to sell for a profit of $0.10 each, and I find someone who will give me $2 each for the microcontrollers and so let you know I'm going to breach the contract and sell my microcontrollers to them, a court is very unlikely to order me to honor the contract. They will order me to pay you $100k, the profit you were anticipating making from our deal (and probably attorney fees, and other costs you'd incur dealing with the breach).

But, according to this blog [1] at Findlaw:

> If Musk tries to abandon the deal, Twitter could sue him and ask for specific performance. This remedy is usually hard to get, but Musk agreed to a powerful specific performance clause in the merger agreement. In fact, he didn't just agree that Twitter could get specific performance. He promised that he wouldn't argue it couldn't (forgive the double-negative).

I'm unable to think of any good reason one would agree to that.

[1] https://www.findlaw.com/legalblogs/courtside/is-elon-musk-go...

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by lovich on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:58PM (#32029672)
I think the past few years of watching the rule of law degrade in both the public and private world in the US means we shouldn’t take any possibly off the table that relies on the system working correctly
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by grey-area on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:54PM (#32027835)
Let’s see what happens. I doubt very much the scenario you outline will come to pass. Nobody wants this deal any more and he can drag all their dirty laundry into it (bots, fake daus etc).

This will just slowly fade from memory as the lawyers argue and at some point they’ll settle.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by joshuamorton on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:59PM (#32027936)
> Let’s see what happens. I doubt very much the scenario you outline will come to pass. Nobody wants this deal any more and he can drag all their dirty laundry into it (bots, fake daus etc).

Twitter shareholders do. If I hold $1m in TWTR today, this deal going through is worth around 500K to me, possibly more if we assume the share value now prices in the buyout potential and will drop otherwise.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by danielmarkbruce on Friday July 08, 2022 @08:53PM (#32030183)
Carl Icahn or Paul Singer would love to deal with it. They might well settle, but it might well be for $15 bill.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by elliekelly on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:22PM (#32028324)
I think it’s far more likely he’d be on the hook for damages. It would be unusual for a judge to force a sale to a now unwilling buyer. Everyone—Twitter, Twitter shareholders, Musk—would be worse off with that result.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by quickthrowman on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:59PM (#32028876)
Twitter shareholders would be worse off.. how? $54.20 is 55% higher than the current after-hours TWTR share price of $35
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by danielmarkbruce on Friday July 08, 2022 @08:52PM (#32030164)
They can still get cash. Lots and lots of cash.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by quickthrowman on Saturday July 09, 2022 @02:09PM (#32037767)
I suppose shareholders wouldn’t mind a special dividend from lawsuit proceeds that captured a good portion of the spread between FMV and $54.20, especially if they get to keep their equity.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by danielmarkbruce on Saturday July 09, 2022 @02:17PM (#32037859)
Yep, and I'd guess that's the most likely outcome.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by ImPostingOnHN on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:55PM (#32028817)
twitter share price is currently lower than what he bid, so twitter shareholders would be materially better off
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by bediger4000 on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:53PM (#32027815)
I'm no expert, so what makes Delaware judges specially incorruptible?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by atlasunshrugged on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:56PM (#32027862)
I mean, besides the fact that generally I don't think overt corruption is that much of a problem in the U.S., the fact that anyone involved with this case will be under a massive microscope and that Delaware as the general standard place to do business deals with many large transactions so this one may not be all that impressive to local judges
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by D13Fd on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:07PM (#32028068)
Delaware sets the gold standard on corporate law, and has a special courts of law and equity (the CCLD division and the Court of Chancery) that are set up to handle high-value corporate matters.

I don’t think most American judges are susceptible to any kind of bribery (other than jurisdictions where elected judges may expect campaign donations from litigants), but Delaware has to be among the absolute least likely to have that issue.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by cormacrelf on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:56PM (#32027863)
Their reputation and their being paid very well to handle a huge proportion of corporate law in America efficiently and fairly. They’re a huge part of the reason everyone domiciles their companies there.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by bediger4000 on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:31PM (#32028470)
Ok. I had understood corporations chose Delaware merely because of the anti-consumer bias in Delaware's laws, but it's good to hear otherwise.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by dwater on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:51PM (#32028758)
That may have been part of the original reasoning, but now Delaware has built up the world’s most reliable corporate legal system, and companies like a reliable legal system very much.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by godelski on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:47PM (#32027705)
Honestly, so what if he's out $60 bn. I don't think this would affect his lifestyle in any way whatsoever. But it would affect his high score. I'm guessing at one point he realized the former but later realized the latter and cared more about that. Though he's still got a 88bn lead on second place so I'm not sure why he cares.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by atlasunshrugged on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:54PM (#32027831)
No matter what it won't be him fronting all the money, he had institutional investors that were ponying up a huge amount of the dough alongside him.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by notahacker on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:02PM (#32028918)
Not sure it's going to affect his probably-not-that-lavish lifestyle that much. But since those billions are in stock it likely it will affect his level of control of companies, his ability to attract future investments and his future decisions. Which people paying attention to tech companies probably care about more than what flavour caviar he eats and what schools his kids go to anyway.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by pclmulqdq on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:32PM (#32030394)
He's overleveraged and most of his companies are on the brink of falling below the point where he gets margin called. The poor sap wanted to rescue a few billions of dollars that could actually survive a recession, but he picked the wrong way to do it.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by scotty79 on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:39PM (#32027572)
> Either he was breathlessly arrogant

Isn't that like more than half of his MO?

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by pid-1 on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:47PM (#32027716)
He made risky bets his entire life and was mostly lucky up to this point.

Most folks who subscribe to the "Musk Principles" aren't nearly as lucky and go bust much earlier.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by jessaustin on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:50PM (#32027763)
Either he was breathlessly arrogant or astonishingly careless in the first instance.

Perhaps he didn't expect the Nasdaq composite to drop 2000 over the next several months? That could have been careless, depending on the sort of agreement he signed. I guess he can afford a $1B penalty, but good luck finding another buyer after that. It's not as though Twitter are overflowing with ideas for profit...

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by mlyle on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:16PM (#32030270)
> I guess he can afford a $1B penalty,

The $1B is if there's some outside reason why the deal cannot get done, e.g. because of regulatory concerns.

It's not a "pay a $1B break-up fee at your discretion to get out of the deal" clause.

> Accordingly, the parties hereto acknowledge and agree that the parties hereto shall be entitled to an injunction, specific performance and other equitable relief to prevent breaches of this Agreement and to enforce specifically the terms and provisions hereof, in addition to any other remedy to which they are entitled at law or in equity. Each of the parties hereto agrees that it will not oppose the granting of an injunction, specific performance and other equitable relief on the basis that any other party has an adequate remedy at law or that any award of specific performance is not an appropriate remedy for any reason at law or in equity.

...

> (b) Notwithstanding anything herein to the contrary, including the availability of the Parent Termination Fee or other monetary damages, remedy or award, it is hereby acknowledged and agreed that the Company shall be entitled to specific performance or other equitable remedy to enforce Parent and Acquisition Sub’s obligations to cause the Equity Investor to fund the Equity Financing, or to enforce the Equity Investor’s obligation to fund the Equity Financing directly, and to consummate the Closing ....

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by jessaustin on Saturday July 09, 2022 @03:46PM (#32038602)
It's all Greek to me. It seems we're always warned that the Law can't be reduced to a simple formula. Scott Galloway seemed to indicate in his gleeful "Elon pulls out" emergency podcast episode that one valid reason to go to the $1B penalty could have been that Musk couldn't get the right financing together. Would it be so hard for him to get some I-banker on the stand to tell that tale? Why would any of the big banks care about the feelings of Twitter execs?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by mikkergp on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:47PM (#32028707)
I think about Jack Dorsey's endorsement early on:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/26/jack-dorsey-elon-musk-is-the...

This most of all makes me think he was really into it and then fucked it all up. Or Jack was just trying to get back at the board.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by WORMS_EAT_WORMS on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:13PM (#32030691)
Eh, I think he’s a believer. I like Jack. He dreams big and is pretty inspirational to wild ideas. You are high if you are reading this and think he’s not upset with where Twitter landed.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by mikkergp on Friday July 08, 2022 @11:03PM (#32031127)
Yeah I mean I guess that’s what I’m trying to say. I do think Dorsey is a believer which makes it so odd to me that Dorsey and Musk apparently had enough of a relationship for Dorsey to say Musk was the best person to take over Twitter, and then see the takeover later become so disorganized.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by morelisp on Saturday July 09, 2022 @03:21AM (#32032700)
Dorsey is also naive, so perhaps he just didn't question Musk's stated position much.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by whynotkeithberg on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:18PM (#32028267)
'eccentric in his approach'

by that you mean straight up lying, attempting fraud etc...

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by parentheses on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:56PM (#32027876)
He relies heavily on his average decision-making ability being way above average. By being this volatile he basically captures surprisingly many good risky decisions. At the same time he ends up with things like this.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by starkd on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:21PM (#32030764)
The twitter board has already announced it intends to litigate this. And they are not after just the $1B fee. That might be what Mr. Musk had in mind when he mentioned he was lawyering up in a few tweets awhile back. Even though he waved due diligence, that might not clear twitter from having lied about the bot problem. I suspect this is going into months of litigation. Perhaps Twitter will be willing to accept a lower price. It might be what Musk is angling for.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by hermanradtke on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:56PM (#32031082)
He didn’t waive due diligence. He chose to forego any due diligence before making an offer.

This isn’t like buying a house…

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by starkd on Saturday July 09, 2022 @09:11AM (#32034747)
Oh? This is news to me. The media are all claiming he waived it, though I tended to doubt it. That he would waive it does seem kind of odd, since even waiving due diligence should not absolve a company from lying about its assets if found out.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by taurath on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:25PM (#32028374)
He is a man who owns and can raise massive amounts of money and promise smart people the ability to build something they want to build. That he gets so much credit for his ventures is a very strange thing to me given how many he has vs how few hours in the day he must have to actually pay any attention to them.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by WalterBright on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:56PM (#32030563)
If he isn't deserving of credit, why has nobody else managed to do it?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by AngryData on Saturday July 09, 2022 @12:17AM (#32031603)
Most other people don't have access to nearly the same levels of capital that would allow them to fail at multiple millions, now billions, of dollars investments. And of the few that do have that money they are generally fairly risk adverse to losing so much when they can get near guaranteed returns rather than making huge gambling risks. Especially when doubling your millions of dollars would mean basically nothing in terms of quality of life improvements.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by WalterBright on Saturday July 09, 2022 @01:36AM (#32032108)
I.e. Musk did it and they didn't. Musk gets the credit.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by burrows on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:28PM (#32028418)
So you think he would be more deserving of credit if he only did SpaceX? instead of SpaceX, Tesla, NeuraLink, etc?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by hartator on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:30PM (#32028459)
And Paypal.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by UncleOxidant on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:58PM (#32027918)
> Either he was breathlessly arrogant or astonishingly careless

Why not both? Arrogance tends to lead to carelessness.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by nimbius on Friday July 08, 2022 @08:57PM (#32030203)
why not both?

the real reason he's filing the sec notice is the gas has run out of the bullshit bus. nobody believes his due diligence claims, the board just sent him a resounding vote of approval to buy, and the legal pain train of that comes with anymore of this childish foot dragging sideshow is pulling into the station.

I'd be stunned if he gets to walk off with the billion dollar penalty. too many financial guarantees and backings have been made, and musks had an SEC crosshair on him for years now. they know exactly what patent brand of bullshit he's peddling and have shown themselves more than willing in the past to take action.

musk can file all the notices he wants but i suspect hes about to get ready for the billionaires version of a shotgun wedding.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by 01100011 on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:24PM (#32030789)
Musk has always had problems(especially with telling the truth), but things seemed to really go downhill after he started doing drugs with Grimes.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by drivingmenuts on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:57PM (#32027882)
Market manipulation disguised as free speech advocacy. Pure and simple.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by CRUDite on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:04PM (#32030204)
He has made billions using twitter spamming Tesla and doge. It’s a playground for for the guy. And therefore cheap at almost any price. But of course why pay more than needed. On a more semi serious note: it must seem ludicrously easy for the guy. He has laid it all out: Mars needs: VTOL rockets since no infrastructure Methane due to atmospheric constraints Tunnels for transport see also infrastructure Starlink see also infrastructure Direct democracy via twitter ( imperator status exempt )

Have as many kids as possible since it’s obvious he will own the solar system. He ain’t gonna be that democratic therefore. Just another dynasty but maybe the last

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by vkou on Friday July 08, 2022 @11:02PM (#32031121)
> Direct democracy via twitter

He doesn't run any of his firms with direct democracy, why on earth would he run his Martian kingdom as one?

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by CRUDite on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:08PM (#32030223)
therefore of course he will buy it
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by zer0-c00l on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:10PM (#32029031)
What he was getting out of it was that he was/is addicted to Twitter, and has an outsized view of its overall importance and value.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by oneoff786 on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:50PM (#32028743)
The market crash makes it impossible to evaluate. It was a stupid price.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by hwers on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:30PM (#32028448)
This is such a terrible look for Elon. I’ve really liked him up until now but this just feels like playing with our emotions. Honestly starting to question how much hope there is for mars to happen at all.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by camjohnson26 on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:01PM (#32028903)
Musk receives a lot of flak because he presents extremely hard problems as easy, and sells the idea that only he can solve them. But this is clearly not true, just look at all the progress that is happening in automated driving and EV technology outside of Tesla, with Waymo, Cruise, and other companies already offering limited driverless rides, and with the Rivian and Ford 150 Lightning beating the cybertruck to market by years.

Real progress takes real work, not promises and marketing fluff. If humanity makes it to Mars it will likely be without his help.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by slowmotiony on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:31PM (#32029330)
Real progress takes real work, not promises and marketing fluff.

I've never seen a Waymo, Cruise, Rivian or a Ford 150 Lightning in my entire life and I've been in many major cities across the world. You know what I do see on a daily basis though? Teslas.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by camjohnson26 on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:41PM (#32029474)
You’ve also never seen a driverless Tesla or a cybertruck, so compare apples to apples. Yes Tesla killed it with their sedans and the model 3.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by jmccaf on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:25PM (#32030792)
I've started to see Rivian trucks are on the road in South Bay Area and in Berkeley.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by plankers on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:37PM (#32028556)
>Honestly starting to question how much hope there is for mars to happen at all.

i spat out my drink reading this

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by Natsu on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:33PM (#32030404)
Well, Twitter (and stocks in general) sorta crashed right after the offer, too, so there's a real question whether that prior valuation makes any sense any longer.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by nixass on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:32PM (#32028487)
>But it's unclear to me what he initially thought he was getting out of this

Answer: some sort of stock manipulation whether it be Tesla's or Twitter's

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by throwntoday on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:51PM (#32031036)
While I would agree his offer was absurdly overvaluing twitter, and reason enough to back out after sobering up, if what is being stated in the letter is true, twitter has likely been committing serious fraud.

It has continually been one of the most underperforming platforms of it's size. Head of Data Science resigning doesn't bode well during a deal hinging on the accuracy of the data.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by ben_jones on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:45PM (#32027664)
Seems like a manic episode enabled by yes-men.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by thethought on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:10PM (#32028116)
What my school teacher used to say about

- cold feet - impetous - eccentric - breathlessly arrogant - astonishingly careless

pupils

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by zouhair on Friday July 08, 2022 @08:21PM (#32029897)
Well his principles are mostly scamming tactics, because he is mostly a scammer.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by chernevik on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:02PM (#32028926)
It seems like his lawyers aren't very good, and maybe neither his bankers.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by bink on Friday July 08, 2022 @08:09PM (#32029788)
It's hard to be a good lawyer when your client lies to you.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by TheDudeMan on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:27PM (#32030356)
"Twitter has tremendous potential"

He may have been honest and correct about that, but later realized that he simply does not have the time to be CEO of yet another large company.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by freemint on Saturday July 09, 2022 @05:27PM (#32039485)
> I don't think any Harvard Business School course will teach "the Musk Principles".

Well history is not yet written. They could be taught as negative examples

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by baby on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:20PM (#32030749)
There’s the HN theory, but then he was invited at twitter answering questions that employees had. Why would someone do that if they were just fucking around.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by anony23 on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:31PM (#32030854)
Possibly it's because the marketnshit the bed and he felt like he would be overpaying under current conditions.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by IncRnd on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:31PM (#32030377)
Actually, these sorts of things are expected in merger agreements, baked into almost all of them. It isn't unusual, when the seller doesn't provide the required data for the purchaser's due diligence that the agreement will terminate.

Who in their right mind would spend billions of dollars without being allowed to "look at the books" regarding the spam account ratio?

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by BigBubbleButt on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:37PM (#32030433)
Elon Musk explicitly waived his right to due diligence. You're right about these things being expected, but Elon can't be hampered by such standard conventions.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by bmitc on Friday July 08, 2022 @11:19PM (#32031231)
> he developed cold feet pretty fast after an impetuous decision

I don't think it was impetuous. I think he did this all on purpose and planned on using his usual tactics of improvisational manipulation and grandstanding to get what he wanted, whether it was Twitter at a cheap price, manipulating the Twitter stock price to make a quick buck off of his stock purchase, liquidate some of his Tesla stock, seed further discontent on Twitter, spur on rabble around bots (despite knowing full well that Tesla and himself have benefited from Twitter bots and potentially even controlled them), drone on about free speech in some sort of libertarian political play, or whatever else. And it has all failed. Now, he's just gonna let his dirty lawyers figure some way out of it all and move on to the next scam.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by marktangotango on Friday July 08, 2022 @11:39PM (#32031379)
I think that requires a level of competence that Musk has failed to display in the past. Shotwell told an interesting story once, in response to a question like "what's it like to work for Elon?" She related an occasion when she got frantic calls from a meeting Musk was in. In the meeting he had decided to cancel Falcon Heavy to meet a schedule for something else. Shotwell went in and reminded everyone (Elon) they had customers who had already paid for Falcon Heavy and cancelling it wasn't an option and to find another solution. Elon responded like "oh yeah, ok well...."

Then there was BTC to purchase Tesla cars, then there was Doge. The point being I think these types of things indicate Musk, like a lot of smart people can be really, really dumb sometimes. Also a bit Hanlons Razor.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by bmitc on Friday July 08, 2022 @11:47PM (#32031416)
I agree with that. I don't consider him intelligent at all. My suspicion is that it's just a case of him having a loose collection of these outcomes that he considers wins, and then he just kicks it off, hoping he can manipulate things along the way towards one of his wins. I don't think he has an actual plan. He's an improvisational manipulator, very similar to a former president.

Then again, it seems the main "win" he often has in mind is just getting attention, so maybe his need for attention exceeds even what I thought.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by christkv on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:58PM (#32027911)
Termination fee is like 1 billion I think so it will still be cheaper for him to back out and then buy it when its stock price crumples over the next couple of quarters.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by eloff on Friday July 08, 2022 @08:42PM (#32030081)
That's only in case he can't get financing. There's no option to pay $1B and walk away. Twitter can sue to force him to complete the deal under the contract they signed.

However I suspect the lawsuit to be settled rather than drag on for years. Probably he'll buy it at a reduced price or pay a larger termination fee to walk away.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by slantedview on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:30PM (#32030847)
> it's unclear to me what he initially thought he was getting out of this

You have to look at it from the angle of Musk being a troll and a right wing figure. He wanted to impress his right wing followers by making Twitter a more free and open place for all kinds of speech (even hate, violence, etc). Maybe he realized this was a bad idea and managing Twitter is more a job for a grown up than a troll, so he looked for a way out.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by hourago on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:51PM (#32027787)
> He's clearly eccentric in his approach to decision making

Being called Eccentric is the luxury of the rich. If he was poor one will say "irresponsible" or even "crazy".

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by ithinkso on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:30PM (#32028453)
It is irresponsible to do something eccentric if you cannot afford it
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by kennywinker on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:45PM (#32028674)
It’s irresponsible to do something eccentric when poor people bear the brunt of the consequences because you can afford to lose a billion here and there while people pay for that with their jobs, homes, lives.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by towaway15463 on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:52PM (#32028785)
Are you saying that poor people would lose their livelihoods due to Tesla and Twitter stock price changes? You might need to reevaluate your definition of poor if so.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by kennywinker on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:16PM (#32030268)
Well, are the recent layoffs at both companies completely unrelated to that? How far do the rippling effects of billions "lost" from the rich person economy go? I'm 100% some people who were just scraping by have been hurt by this. If only because there are 10 less good tippers / day at the coffee shop down the street from the twitter offices.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by salawat on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:07PM (#32028989)
Considering the contagion that can occur whever far ranging stock is discovered to be over inflated in price, I think it's arrogant to look at these types of things and discount what downstream effects could occur.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by ithinkso on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:11PM (#32029056)
As opposed to keeping it inflated indefinitely so that it will never burst
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by MBCook on Friday July 08, 2022 @08:25PM (#32029933)
The fact that an eventuality is likely to occur does not make you righteous for choosing to cause it at a time that’s convenient for you.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by thrown_22 on Friday July 08, 2022 @08:51PM (#32030158)
A job is a way to make money.

It is not the responsibility of a corporation to keep you fed or alive.

If you don't like how a job treats you find another one.

This pseudo familial relationship with jobs that Americans seem to have is one of the oddest mental illnesses I've seen.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by toofy on Friday July 08, 2022 @11:01PM (#32031118)
we spend over half our waking hours for often over half of our lives spent working — you think it’s a mental illness for a person to consider how all of these hours and expended energy impact their life?

honestly, you think this is a mental illness?

and i think there are many reasonable arguments that huge chunks of the world care far more about their jobs impact on their lives than we (u.s. americans) do.

a mental illness? the way you say everything in your comment, as if that belief is somehow a universal truth is wild.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by thrown_22 on Saturday July 09, 2022 @12:36AM (#32031730)
You've wildly misread what I wrote. Please read the post again.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by kennywinker on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:20PM (#32030304)
And the mental illness of worshiping billionaires seems to have spread worldwide. Why else would you leap to defend elon musk's erratic behavior, and carry water for the damage he leaves in his wake?
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by thrown_22 on Friday July 08, 2022 @09:46PM (#32030499)
Musk is a retard, but he's still less retarded than anyone who expects firms and the market to take care of them.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by kennywinker on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:09PM (#32030663)
There’s a difference between saying “wow that guy is an irresponsible asshole for intentionally or unintentionally fucking up my job” and expecting the market or your job to take care of you.

I know some drivers will run red lights and stop signs, so I walk and bike accordingly. I’m still in the right to get mad when a driver narrowly misses me because he’s a self involved clown.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by thrown_22 on Friday July 08, 2022 @10:19PM (#32030748)
>There’s a difference between saying “wow that guy is an irresponsible asshole for intentionally or unintentionally fucking up my job” and expecting the market or your job to take care of you.

There isn't. Have a nice day.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by kennywinker on Saturday July 09, 2022 @01:50AM (#32032197)
If company owners want credit for creating jobs, that comes with the reciprocal responsibility of it being your fault if those jobs go away.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by thrown_22 on Saturday July 09, 2022 @04:07AM (#32032983)
Jobs are a cost center. Companies don't create them on purpose anymore than having a higher electricity bill.

I have no idea why you would think that is an argument for anything.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by kennywinker on Saturday July 09, 2022 @09:45AM (#32035029)
https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/10167318121592545...

Because they ask for that credit, and their defenders give them that credit when you criticize them.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by thrown_22 on Saturday July 09, 2022 @07:27PM (#32040299)
Stalinists criticized capitalists, Stalinists killed millions, ergo anyone who criticizes Musk supports genocide.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by kennywinker on Sunday July 10, 2022 @01:38AM (#32042146)
I keep explaining the connection between my ideas, and you keep repeating that they are unconnected without acknowledging my reasoning. In retrospect, I should have left things back at have a nice day
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by thrown_22 on Sunday July 10, 2022 @02:07AM (#32042267)
You keep making strawmen and expect me to fight them, now you're upset I won't. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by kennywinker on Sunday July 10, 2022 @11:50AM (#32045799)
It’s masterful moves like calling opinions you don’t agree with “strawmen” that make you such a persuasive debater. I’m out gunned and out maneuvered - you win. I was wrong to describe elon musk’s actions as irresponsible.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by hourago on Saturday July 09, 2022 @08:56AM (#32034641)
Governments create rules that force corporations to take care of employees. Maybe not so much in the USA. But that can be improved thru higher taxation and better employment regulations.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by cratermoon on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:15PM (#32028208)
To quote the great Crash Davis, speaking to minor league pitching phenom Ebby Calvin 'Nuke' LaLoosh, "Your shower shoes have fungus on them. You'll never make it to the bigs with fungus on your shower shoes. Think classy, you'll be classy. If you win 20 in the show, you can let the fungus grow back and the press'll think you're colorful. Until you win 20 in the show, however, it means you are a slob."
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by __john on Friday July 08, 2022 @05:57PM (#32027884)
I think there is a 1A aspect to his involvement with Twitter.
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by recuter on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:30PM (#32028447)
> The spam accounts angle seems like a convenient scapegoat, rather than a real surprise to him.

It seems apparent to this observer that the spam accounts thing and other metrics were always super inflated and perhaps now there will be a reckoning.

I also think it is very funny how there was much gnashing of teeth and literal tears at the prospect of him owning twitter but now they might end up chasing him and try to force him to buy them, thus further alienating the woke mob and sowing chaos internally. Look how the turn tables have turn tabled.

If they are greedy enough to go to court over it the question of just how fake this company is will stay in the news for the duration of the trial and the stock will tank. If they don't they might have to, you know, actually function like a real company.

This story is far from over.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by initplus on Friday July 08, 2022 @06:42PM (#32028622)
No kidding Twitter has spam/fake accounts, isn't that part of why Musk wanted to buy Twitter in the first place?

He publicly stated that he wanted to buy Twitter to clear up the fake account issue, he knew about the issue before entering the deal, when signing he waived due diligence that could have given him the opportunity to investigate the issue before signing...

Musk's own tweets will work against him if he tries to use the fake accounts issue to back out.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by recuter on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:50PM (#32029572)
His stated reason to buy twitter was in defense of free speech, despite the bots not because of them.

I'm guessing he saw a glimpse of just how extensive the problem really is and the unwillingness of the organization to be remotely honest about it. It would not surprise me if it was 95% bots, rather than 5%.