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Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by runarberg on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:01PM (#32028913)
The fake moon landing conspiracy is a good example. Then number of people involved would be pretty big, and the science is complicated. The logistics behind such a big secret operation requires such skill that it is hard to believe anyone would be able to pull it off. If the moon landing was truly fake surely they would have messed up somewhere.

On the other hand many things went wrong in the actual moon landing. There were liftoffs that failed, experiments that went nowhere, targets that were missed, and even people that died. The actual moon landing was a hard task they succeeded at while making a ton of mistakes in the process, just like humans do in the real world when we are at our best.

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by rsynnott on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:19PM (#32029164)
The "massive rocket" is also an issue: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sE-tpiAiiHo
Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by aetherson on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:07PM (#32028990)
Okay, I agree that the fake moon landing conspiracy would have involved an excessive amount of competence to believe.

That seems pretty different from, "If your entire plan is to back out of a contract, add a clause to the contract that lets you back out of it."

Re:Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement by runarberg on Friday July 08, 2022 @07:24PM (#32029238)
Indeed it is different. My point was simply that incompetence is not evidence against conspiracy. My sniff test was simply emphasizing this point. Further, a sniff test is—by definition—not supposed to be your only marker in evaluating a theory, it is merely supposed to be a marker determining if evaluating further evidence is even worth your time.

The conspiracy theory that Musk is using this twitter scheme to manipulate the markets in his favor does not fail any sniff tests that I’m aware of.