But Musk set the price at $54 by agreeing to buy Twitter at that price. If this deal were guaranteed to go through, shares should be trading at that price until the sale is complete. Trading at above that price means shareholders would lose money at closing, and trading at below means someone is leaving money on the table. Market forces should cause the price to converge at $54.

The fact that it’s trading lower means that investors don’t expect the deal to go through. And who exactly as been doing his best to very publicly bring the deal into question? Elon Musk.

If he was the only thing dragging twitter toward $54, and then he stops dragging it as hard, it's hard for me to see that as driving value down. If he hasn't caused any other damage, that's just twitter returning to its natural value.

Given the agreement, it sure seems to me that Twitter's natural value is currently $44 billion dollars.