Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by bsoqk on Wednesday September 23, 2026 @07:12PM
(#49823942)
> So far, however, the law has done little to spur the construction of new semiconductor factories in Europe. The European Court of Auditors concluded last year that the EU is unlikely to achieve its goal of doubling Europe’s share of the global chip market by 2030.
They should make another law and probably a few more commissions of auditors.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by Grimburger on Saturday September 26, 2026 @09:01AM
(#49856109)
I get its sarcasm but TSMC has done so much to try to get the Americans getting some decent yields in their new factories and it's failing so hard, there's real questions about whether they can ever meet their targets. They've sent thousands of existing Taiwanese workers to help at this point and from anecdotal things I hear it's not going well. (I live in Taiwan)
This stuff is all blood, sweat and tears to get it done, and to be honest a culture.
You can't just buy it off the shelf. If that was possible everyone would have gone paid for it like an Ikea product years ago.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by skippyboxedhero on Saturday September 26, 2026 @09:43AM
(#49856483)
Investment is risky and uncertain. If you did not do anything because it might fail, you would do nothing at all.
The inability to cope with failure is a culture that is common in Europe. Failure is so personally devastating, so destructive to social and cultural standing that not only must you not take risks but other people must be actively prevented from taking risk.
Maybe the US investment doesn't work, but the US will have tried at least. Taiwan is, ironically, the perfect example of where the initial impetus came from the government because there was no culture of risk-taking. Parts of Europe have a savings culture that is very similar to Taiwan and led to very poor growth and very high inequality.
If the US keeps trying, they will succeed. On here, the view was that China could never build out this capacity, they did. The only way to guarantee failure is to never try.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by nixon_why69 on Saturday September 26, 2026 @12:54PM
(#49858344)
That's part of the culture OP was referencing. Another part is not having ad tech jobs easily available paying 5-10x as much for easier work. A big part of Asian success at hard tech fields is just not having better options.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by Grimburger on Monday September 28, 2026 @11:41AM
(#49879791)
The amount of supercars and high end vehicles in Hsinchu is unreal. Probably all anyone needs to know here, until you've seen it firsthand you wouldn't understand.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by throwaway2037 on Monday September 28, 2026 @12:38PM
(#49880735)
Great point. I read about this a few times. Here is a juicy quote that I found: "Ferrari sales in Taiwan doubled over a four-year period." Yikes! Hello, new money!
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by petcat on Saturday September 26, 2026 @09:20AM
(#49856283)
> They've got huge monetary losses, if you're ok with that
USA passed the CHIPS Act and is spending close to a trillion dollars to strategically re-home all of TSMC's most advanced fab technology to Arizona as a matter of national security. Monetary losses don't matter when the point is to not be reliant or China in the event of South China Sea conflict.
I think the point of this article, and the warnings from ASML, is that Europe is not making the same effort.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by Grimburger on Saturday September 26, 2026 @09:36AM
(#49856426)
But that's sorta of hits to the heart of my comment, it's not particularly working well. TSMC has 2 fabs in China and yields+costs are a fraction of whats coming out of Arizona, let alone in Hsinchu.
Like are you really going to buy a chip that costs 70% more out of national pride? Might work on some but think that very few else will sign up for that.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by sampullman on Saturday September 26, 2026 @11:49AM
(#49857661)
70% extra on top of a trillion or two in investment is a relatively small price to pay when faced with the possibility of that being your only option at some point in the future.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by Grimburger on Saturday September 26, 2026 @09:48AM
(#49856532)
I don't want to speak bad about them but it's just general demand for semiconductors at this point, everyone is just buying it all up because they can. The Arizona plant still doesn't seem to be pumping out and the self-sufficiency target for the US doesn't seem all there. Im sorry to be the bearer of bad news but honestly it's a culture that's hard to replicate and its how it somehow gets done in one country on Earth. The 2030 target for the states surely isn't happening, it's way too ambitious.
People really don't understand how this stuff is borderline magic turning silicon into these things. There's so much that can go wrong at every step, it's the most advanced manufacturing process on Earth.
Once upon a time chips went down in value but I don't think that's happening anymore, lot of other people seem aware of that. Not to mention the semiconductor talent is getting eaten up like pancakes everywhere.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by holbrad on Saturday September 26, 2026 @09:08AM
(#49856179)
Well, we're stuck between a left-wing party and a left-wing party, both of whom, despite what they say, hate economic growth and try to restrict it at every opportunity.
And that's largely because the average Brit has terrible beliefs that actively make them poorer. A shockingly high percentage of people believe that building more houses won't lower costs.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by Toynbeeidea on Saturday September 26, 2026 @09:21AM
(#49856297)
I live in amerifatland. They're building new houses all the time, everywhere I look, entire complexes of them. "McMansions," we call them.
I make average US wages, have my entire adult life. I cannot afford a house in my city unless I buy a literal ruin in the ghetto. The suburbs are far more expensive, and that's where the McMansion complexes are. I don't know who's buying them, but it isn't me and likely never will be.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by irishcoffee on Saturday September 26, 2026 @01:33PM
(#49858728)
Do you want a strip club or a dispensary to open up next door to where you live? Or maybe a glue factory down the street? There are reasons zoning laws exist, and it isn’t to regulate growth in the sense you’re implying.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by Schiendelman on Monday September 28, 2026 @05:35PM
(#49884724)
99.9% of the work done in zoning is about restricting housing. And no, you shouldn't be allowed to stop any of those things, you can regulate any negative impacts directly if you like.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by skippyboxedhero on Saturday September 26, 2026 @09:29AM
(#49856356)
For left-wing governments in Britain, building houses is putting yourself out of a job.
Scotland is a good example: every government since the mid-2010s has been elected on the explicit promise to build more houses, they cannot do so because of the electoral consequences so they attempt to build council houses, it is impossible for the government to build enough council houses to make up for multiple decades of underbuilding (this problem has accelerated significantly whilst they have been promising to build housing, had explicit targets, etc.), but at the next election they make the same promises (and people vote for them because there is no alternative).
The really strange thing is that people also see the massive growth in student housing in Scotland. Again, very good for politicians: more conservative foreign students can't vote, domestic students will vote left-wing.
The politics of this topic are very strange. The public is still at the stage where they think in vague terms that the problem is a lack of housing.
I believe the problem is worse in Scotland because the growth in council housing in the 60/70s was organised in order to create this permanent bloc vote. The same has happened in London where you have whole constituencies where 70% of the effective vote is void.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by p_j_w on Saturday September 26, 2026 @10:37AM
(#49857016)
> every government since the mid-2010s has been elected on the explicit promise to build more houses, they cannot do so because of the electoral consequences
This doesn’t add up. Promising to get more housing built is getting these people elected, but they can’t make good on this promise because then they will lose their election?
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by tolien on Saturday September 26, 2026 @03:23PM
(#49859688)
> The really strange thing is that people also see the massive growth in student housing in Scotland. Again, very good for politicians: more conservative foreign students can't vote, domestic students will vote left-wing.
That's a conspiracy theory and a half!
A lot of the new student accommodation being built is privately owned. They're chasing the (pre-Brexit/pandemic) overheating market for student accommodation that resulted from the universities targeting international students for the inflated tuition fees they can charge, and in some cases have features explicitly advertised to international students as positives (e.g. some of the ones in Nottingham have built in rice cookers as standard).
However, some of the properties are at risk of becoming unviable (e.g. lying empty or having to be turned over to housing non students [0]) because of a combination of Brexit and tightened immigration rules.
If they're being built as some kind of social engineering it would be a really convoluted way of going about it.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by Epa095 on Saturday September 26, 2026 @10:08AM
(#49856714)
I get the sarcasm, but its not like e.g. TSMC popped up in a environment of pure libertarian free market capitalism. It was, from the beginning, a project of the Taiwanese state, and without significant public influence there is no way it would have become what it is. Are the EU laws what's needed? IDK. But without a proper public industrial policy besides "low taxes and few regulations" there is no way Europe will be able to get significant semiconductor-production up, the rich-get-richer phenomenon is just to strong.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by brookst on Saturday September 26, 2026 @10:23AM
(#49856872)
I think the point is that laws alone mean nothing. As you note, Taiwan was more active than just having commissions and signing papers.
Airbus proves the EU can do this. It remains to be seen if they still have the ability to take constructive action, or if “add more bureaucracy” is the only tool remaining in the toolbox.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by egorfine on Saturday September 26, 2026 @10:35AM
(#49856997)
> Airbus proves the EU can do this
*could.
Airbus has been grandfathered into the current legal situation. Today a future Airbus would not be able to even start collecting data for its initial Environmental Impact Study.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by overfeed on Saturday September 26, 2026 @01:32PM
(#49858724)
> Airbus proves the EU can do this
And Boeing's rampant carelessness proves European laws can be beneficial. "Hurr durr, how about them European laws" is a low-effort comment that adds nothing to the discussions.
The argument that a slack regulatory environment is sufficient was disproven when the US government subsidized new fabs via the CHIPS Act (a new law!), and then went further and partially nationalized a failing Intel to prop it up.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by lm2s on Saturday September 26, 2026 @01:35PM
(#49858746)
I’ve seen someone explaining why it’s not as easy with semiconductors: Airbus can spread several different factories for different components around the EU. For semiconductors that’s not as feasible.
Thus countries would fight which one would have the semiconductors factory.
I think it was more or less this argument, which seems to make sense.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by AdamN on Saturday September 26, 2026 @12:58PM
(#49858385)
Another interesting fact is that Che-Chia Wei (the man who made TSMC what it is) received zero equity. Everything he has he bought himself at the market rate.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by throwaway2037 on Sunday September 27, 2026 @01:59AM
(#49863759)
Don't you mean Morris Chang/張忠謀? He was the founder. Also, this near-meme level phrase "received zero equity" is meaningless when you are paying senior executives millions per year. They just buy shares with their earnings. He was one of the highest (if not highest) paid executive in Taiwan for more than a decade.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by microtonal on Sunday September 27, 2026 @05:23AM
(#49864910)
It was, from the beginning, a project of the Taiwanese state, and without significant public influence there is no way it would have become what it is.
Fun fact in this context: (Dutch) Philips was a major initial investor in TSMC (both in money and IP):
Only Philips was willing to sign a joint venture contract with Taiwan to put up $58 million, transfer its production technology, and license intellectual property in exchange for a 27.6 percent stake in TSMC.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by flohofwoe on Saturday September 26, 2026 @08:57AM
(#49856067)
Bosch never said that though, the "AI" stuff was about the production methods used in the fab (along with a couple other buzzwords), it was never claimed that the fab produces chips "for AI". Instead these are fairly simple controllers for the automotive industry.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by moooo99 on Saturday September 26, 2026 @09:15AM
(#49856242)
Can you share any official communication where somebody claimed this fab was for AI?
It was pretty clear that this fab - much like the other Bosch facilities - is going to be for automotive and industry ICs, not for high end node sizes in CPUs or GPUs.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by ahartmetz on Saturday September 26, 2026 @09:42AM
(#49856469)
I think I've read "power management chips for AI" somewhere. Probably technically correct, but also a somewhat gratuitous reference to the current thing for silly PR reasons.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by moooo99 on Saturday September 26, 2026 @11:36AM
(#49857545)
I don't think this is merely a gratuitous reference given the fact that AI demand is probably - among EVs - a key driver for the sales of power related ICs.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by randomhacker123 on Saturday September 26, 2026 @10:30AM
(#49856948)
You probably mixed it up with the Infineon Smart Power Fab.
The Infineon Smart Power Fab was opened some months ago and builds power ICs for the energy market. Probably something like ACDC and DCAC converter ICs. This is also needed in AI data centers.
https://www.infineon.com/de/regional/dresden/smart-power-fab
European Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (ESMC), the TSMC fab in Dresden is still under construction and will produce logic chips in 28nm or 16nm. Bosch, Infineon, and NXP each have 10% share in this fab. I assume that it will mostly produce products which will be sold by these 3 companies, probably just the next generations from what they already sell. This fab was 50% subsidized by the German government.
GlobalFoundries also has a big 20nm Fab in Dresden.
The most advanced logic fab in the EU is the Intel fab in Ireland.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by bcrl on Monday September 28, 2026 @02:22PM
(#49882227)
It is somewhat disappointing that Global Foundries basically stopped participating in the leading edge process node race around the time of the split with AMD. The world is in a rather precarious place with virtually all eggs in the TSMC basket.
[ Intel has yet to prove that it can sustain itself as a foundry for third parties, and until they do, I have a hard time believing the massive culture shift required across the whole company can be achieved without splitting the company up into separate parts. Samsung has fallen behind, but at least they have diversity across a variety of markets including HBM. Neither have leading edge fabs in Europe, so everything continues falls back on TSMC. ]
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by flohofwoe on Saturday September 26, 2026 @09:00AM
(#49856101)
The fab itself can still be "state of the art" even when the product isn't (Germany needs chips for its industry, not for gaming PCs or AI data centers).
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by ahartmetz on Saturday September 26, 2026 @02:25PM
(#49859139)
We both know that feature sizes became marketing names over a decade ago. The "12 nm" for that fab are of course the marketing name. In any case, it's a seriously old process at this point.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by kimixa on Sunday September 27, 2026 @05:46PM
(#49871184)
I think it's still /somewhat/ close to feature size - I think the fin pitch of the "N3" tsmc process was about 5nm, which gives a "minimum feature size" of ~2.5nm to ensure the "gap" between them.
I think one of the big differences is that the "Gate Contact Area" simply isn't the smallest "feature" anymore - but the ITRS that defined those names called it "feature size", not "gate size" from the beginning intentionally.
You probably could make a transitor with a gate size of a similar order to the "feature size", it'll just perform awfully to be completely useless.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by fn-mote on Saturday September 26, 2026 @10:07AM
(#49856705)
To be fair:
1. They provided evidence (construction of a fab in Dresden).
2. Executives lie all of the time.
Aside: after all of the denunciations of AI companies claims of danger, I expected comments here to be denouncing this as a “ASML shill article trying to get the government to buy more of their product”. Not that I believe, but the contrast is striking.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by dathinab on Saturday September 26, 2026 @10:07AM
(#49856710)
since when are executives statements meant to produce more investment into them trustable?
even more so it is reasonable to assume their (executive) statement was a simplification ignoring small for the overall statement irrelevant exceptions
like ignoring there being a factory build which is small and only meant for older nodes producing embedded chips and is for the car industry only
because honestly while the factory does matter for Bosh, it doesn't really make much difference for the larger picture of chip production in the EU
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by rsynnott on Sunday September 27, 2026 @06:30AM
(#49865373)
I think there's potentially confusion around timing; the order for this facility would probably have been a year or so ago, so fits with not selling anything in 2026.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by baobabKoodaa on Saturday September 26, 2026 @02:44PM
(#49859321)
The claim in OP is that "ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe". A single chipmaking machine purchase into a fab in Europe would be enough to prove that claim wrong. The number of fabs in Taiwan is irrelevant to this claim.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by comboy on Saturday September 26, 2026 @09:18AM
(#49856269)
They are not cracking EUV, they are finding ways that actually scale. Chips can be much cheaper than they are currently. I mean yes, obviously we cannot be confident ntil it happens, but they are already making 5nm with DUV.
When China leads chip making the rest of the world is just vasal states.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by Numerlor on Saturday September 26, 2026 @10:25AM
(#49856891)
Going to higher densities with DUV needs high multi patterning which is very inefficient and ends up costing more than if they could do EUV with fewer patterns.
It's well known tech that is used globally, just not to that degree as yield and throughput goes way down
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by ck2 on Saturday September 26, 2026 @03:32PM
(#49859780)
lol China wouldn't bother bombing anyone
they'd just tell all their export ships to turn around and stop all exports
US would collapse in 30 days
it would be like the blockade US is doing to Cuba except 90% of every product we use and they wouldn't have to fire a single shot
they could also sell off the billions in US bonds and other assets
US economy would be utterly destroyed, we'd never recover because even the middle-class would be living out of their cars (now dead because all the parts for them are made in China)
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by ramshanker on Saturday September 26, 2026 @09:17AM
(#49856264)
Happy to hear India got mentioned by the same executive during that conversation. We are just started buying from them. I went to Semicon India 2026, held in delhi last week. The energy was amazing. Really pleasant. all big names including ASML.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by roenxi on Saturday September 26, 2026 @10:02AM
(#49856657)
It's is heartening looking at a country like India and thinking that it only seems to be a little behind China on the same trajectory. The little flashes of news as they start settling in to more interesting and high tech industries. Whatever good or evil comes out of their growing geopolitical power at least that is another billion people with a clear enough path to wealth and prosperity.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by malshe on Saturday September 26, 2026 @12:08PM
(#49857849)
> a little behind China on the same trajectory
In my opinion, India is around 30 years behind China. This is unlikely to change for several reasons. However, the primary reason is that no Indian government ever had a manufacturing policy that comes close to China's. The service economy is strong but employs a tiny percentage of the population.
Most of Indian government spending is on welfare followed by endemic corruption. It leaves very little money for nation building.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by shash on Saturday September 26, 2026 @01:15PM
(#49858567)
Thirty? Try more like 10, and that’s only for the advanced nodes. Everything else, we will have capacity coming online soon enough.
Design, the gap is nonexistent in terms of talent deployed (though we have some way to go to have homegrown product companies). Which puts us roughly where Europe is.
Also consider, a tiny percentage of the Indian population is a ridiculous number of people. Dwarfing pretty much any other country except China.
Your last point on welfare and corruption is also false; 35% of government spend is on interest payments (which is kind of normal for most countries?) and 30% is on infrastructure and other capex. Defence is 8% and central welfare schemes plus co-sponsored schemes with the states are only 26%. The point being, while corruption is definitely a problem, it doesn’t significantly come out of the central budget. And welfare is smaller than infrastructure spending even if it’s quite significant (and it better be, in a country like this).
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by anukin on Saturday September 26, 2026 @05:36PM
(#49860761)
The infrastructure spending is where and how the corruption happen. The cases of bridge collapses in bihar gujarat, the mp 90 degree bridge etc should be obvious cases of corruption.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by malshe on Saturday September 26, 2026 @07:15PM
(#49861518)
If India is 10 years behind China, that would mean in 2036 India will be where China is today. What's the chance of that happening?
Only an estimated 6 million Indians work in IT and tech services where the money is. India's working age population is approximately 950 million. India had the golden opportunity to bring manufacturing to India when Western companies wanted to reduce their dependence on China. But it wasted it.
I don't know where you are getting that 30% spending on infrastructue.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by shash on Saturday September 26, 2026 @11:01PM
(#49862955)
The 30% spending is from government numbers in the last budget, so let’s get that out of the way.
How many people do you think could conceivably work in manufacturing? And who buys all those manufactured goods? The social problem isn’t solved by quotas.
India's data collection is much worse than China's but we can also look at other metrics like exports. India exports less in total value than a resource-starved, tiny nation like South Korea.
Thus, India could at least add another 100 million manufacturing jobs, along with an additional 100 million service jobs to support manufacturing in logistics, trade, maintenance, customer support, insurance, and food service.
Given the structure of Indian constitution which gives very little power to local governments to raise revenue and build infrastructure, India is structurally limited as of now from ever becoming as developed as China, let alone western countries.
I see India becoming more like Brazil than China. That's not necessarily a bad thing since even Brazil is 4-5x richer in per capita than India.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by graemep on Sunday September 27, 2026 @09:03AM
(#49866337)
> India's lead in pharma manufacturing is because of their willingness to ignore US patents
US patents are only valid in the US. India is not "ignoring" anything by not following foreign laws. Can someone with an Indian patent enforce it in the US?
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by graemep on Sunday September 27, 2026 @11:40AM
(#49867649)
From your first link:
"A PCT application does not itself result in the grant of a patent, since there is no such thing as an "international patent", and the grant of patent is a prerogative of each national or regional authority."
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by roenxi on Saturday September 26, 2026 @10:28AM
(#49856939)
I remember when China was poor and everyone was talking about how their communal society guarenteed poverty. Then they started getting wealthy and the story became their communal society was what allowed them to be wealthy. The US is similarly either propelled by or crippled by their individualism depending on whether they've had a good year or not. India will no doubt be similar.
IMO the evidence suggests it is mostly tax policy and whether people are allowed to start and run businesses. Culture is important insofar as it affects those areas of policy. Getting wealthy is literally as simple as being able to create new wealth and keep it, plus lots of time. People don't choose to stay poor unless someone with a gun forces them to be poor.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by winter_blue on Saturday September 26, 2026 @06:36PM
(#49861232)
> Getting wealthy is literally as simple as being able to create new wealth and keep it, plus lots of time. People don't choose to stay poor unless someone with a gun forces them to be poor.
Yes, that sums it up. The biggest problem is government officials who get in the way of starting or running a business, ask for bribes, and generally make it impossible to do any non-software non-backoffice business work. Plus taxes.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by spaqin on Saturday September 26, 2026 @09:51PM
(#49862554)
Their communal system hasn't been relevant since the mid 80s when Deng Xiaoping got inspired by Thatcher and opened up the economy. The name remained, though.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by soulofmischief on Saturday September 26, 2026 @10:33PM
(#49862772)
- China has nothing to do with India's cast system, so this is a straw man that attempts to replace the argument with something you're more ready to defend; however, I was talking about India and it's caste system, not China. China also has extreme issues and their people live under oppression, just like in India and the US.
- As another commenter has noted, modern China is Communist only in name.
- Your analysis of how simple creating new wealth is, or how people only stay poor when a "gun forces them to" makes it painfully obvious that you and I grew up in different wealth classes. It's not that simple to acquire wealth, and poverty is a massive feedback loop. Wealth compounds, and so does poverty. This is the nature of capitalism.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by Aromasin on Saturday September 26, 2026 @10:29AM
(#49856942)
You could say the same of the aristocracy of Europe over the last few hundred years, but that has effedtively crumbled. There's remnants of "old money" families that were upper-class, but for the most part the merchant class took control of the system that held them down. It took many generations, but the blue blooded dynasties are a dying breed.
Arguably India has the class system tied to the prevailing religion, but religion too has faded with modernity. Systems have a habit of breaking under strain and time.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by brookst on Sunday September 27, 2026 @11:00AM
(#49867217)
Yes. You implied that the caste system was somehow unique to India. Reality is that every country has its own way of sorting wealth to the most favored.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by soulofmischief on Sunday September 27, 2026 @01:22PM
(#49868728)
I did not imply that, you misinterpreted what I said, presumably due to preconceived bias.
> Reality is that every country has its own way of sorting wealth to the most favored.
No shit!
However, when I discuss the issues with wealth distribution here in America, no one goes, "But India has a caste system!"
Yet apparently pointing out issues with India's wealth distribution, I'm met with deflection, blame games and a horde of people patronizingly assuming without cause that I live under a rock and have no grasp of global economics, politics or history.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by jiggawatts on Saturday September 26, 2026 @06:51PM
(#49861339)
The USA has historically had a two tier system enshrined in law: one for "whites" and one for "coloreds". (There are two sets of bathrooms in the Whitehouse!) Just because the laws were technically repealed, doesn't mean that the system evaporated overnight.
Coloreds are still hugely overrepresented in the criminal "justice" system, they're still much poorer on average, are still disenfranchised en-masse through gerrymandering and voter ID requirements that accept shooters' club membership cards but not ID cards poorer blacks might possess, etc.
For all intents and purposes, the USA has a caste system that has evolved from an earlier system that was apartheid in all but name.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by Danox on Saturday September 26, 2026 @08:22PM
(#49861967)
But India has a problem. India is one-third size of the United States or China, and they have 1.4 billion people and growing 2 billion or 2.3 billion is not going to work.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by anon291 on Saturday September 26, 2026 @10:45AM
(#49857094)
I'm from what would have been considered a low caste in India. The moment people mention India, people bring up the caste system as if it's the cause of every issue there or as if other countries don't have similar problems. Unequal wealth distributions are common. While it makes sense for Indian nationals to want their government to do better than other countries and eliminate social inequality (a feat no other country has ever accomplished), outside observers comparing ought to benchmark countries against one another fairly. All countries have social inequality. If India were to eliminate social inequality it would become superior to most countries on the planet. That seems to me a utopian dream, but I understand why someone living there might want that.
For the rest of us, I think we need to be reasonable in our assessments, especially when the other country under discussion is China.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by irishcoffee on Saturday September 26, 2026 @11:43AM
(#49857611)
I guess the difference is social mobility in the US exists, a lot of successful founders in the US come from poor beginnings. In India you cannot legally change your caste for your entire life, if I’m not mistaken.
Seems like it isn’t a system worth defending. China has so many issues, it also blows my mind that people around here defend and praise China like they’re doing good things. They aren’t.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by __rito__ on Saturday September 26, 2026 @12:08PM
(#49857847)
Caste is mostly irrelevant in India outside of liberal arts department of so-called elite universities.
There are some pockets where this is not true, but they are exceptions.
And those comments aren't defending it.
Upward mobility is available in India, too. But remember that to have "upward mobility", there needs to be place at the top. For a country which has been under hundreds of years of regressive colonial rulers, there is not much place at the top.
Global wealth is much more in the US than in India right now, so it is not wise to compare rags-to-riches of the US with those of India.
India's government jobs, elite engineering and medical seats have a legal 50%+ quota for "lower" castes people. Did you know that? So, I am saying, 50%+ students graduating ALL elite engineering and law and medical and nursing schools, etc. are from these "lower" castes. Did you know that?
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by irishcoffee on Saturday September 26, 2026 @12:18PM
(#49857969)
An yet legally, you are born and die in a bucket you have no say in whatsoever. From the outside looking in, seems wrong. Not dissimilar to Brave New World in some aspects.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by shash on Saturday September 26, 2026 @01:18PM
(#49858607)
Actually, legally, caste doesn’t exist. It’s been abolished, except for schemes for socially eradicating it (which are controversial but conceptually no different from any other affirmative action).
Not to say it isn’t a problem. But race is still a problem elsewhere too.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by soulofmischief on Saturday September 26, 2026 @11:03PM
(#49862967)
The caste system has matter-of-fact not been abolished. The only thing that has been "abolished" is discrimination regarding caste.
Yet, we also outlawed slavery and Jim Crow laws in the US and yet my local prison in the Deep South is filled with 90%+ Black people. We outlawed redlining and yet the modern credit score system does an excellent job of continuing the purpose of preventing Black people from getting loans and leveraging their wealth.
All this to say, my understanding is the sentiment and infrastructure are still in place regarding India's caste system.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by anon291 on Saturday September 26, 2026 @01:40PM
(#49858784)
There is no bucket. There is affirmative action. If you can prove you're a part of a group for which affirmative action has been granted they'll give you a certificate saying you're part of that group. This is in no way tying you to that group. It's just a scheme to give affirmative action.
This is like saying America's racial quotas (or former ones) put you in a 'bucket'. Caste is essentially race / genetics. You are not bucketed, it is simply a reality of your ancestry. Of course you can't change it.. you cannot change your genetics. This is a ridiculous goal post.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by soulofmischief on Saturday September 26, 2026 @11:04PM
(#49862974)
Actually you can change it, by getting rid of it. No one here thinks reparations are a bad thing. But the ongoing discrimination is unacceptable. Conflating the two does not help.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by eldaisfish on Saturday September 26, 2026 @12:14PM
(#49857927)
This is complete and utter horseshit.
Caste is very much alive in India and this sort of blanket denialism reeks of upper caste privilege.
If caste is all that irrelevant, please go ahead with changing your surname to an obviously lower caste one. We will see how quickly you come crawling back to your so called “irrelevant” caste privilege.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by __rito__ on Saturday September 26, 2026 @12:36PM
(#49858154)
Why do you assume I am so called higher caste? My caste is under a bucket in India called "Other Backward Classes".
Honestly the caste never comes up. In almost any conversation. And I also grew up far away from megacities.
I only heard a couple of priests blabber about the glory of their caste, but they were piss poor and had nothing else to be proud of. And they were bad as priests as well. That is, you wouldn't call them if you care about pure Sanskrit pronunciation, carefulness and seriousness during rituals, etc.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by conmod278 on Saturday September 26, 2026 @01:46PM
(#49858835)
Reservation in education institutions and government job which is used to solve caste system are just doing Eugenics in disguise. Only gene pool of rich lower caste people benefit.
The people who suffered are dead. The people who committed discrimination are dead. Yet the whole nation has to accomodate. Reservation must be done on Pro-Rata basis. If one state like Kerela is advanced, doesn't do caste discrimination and another like Bihar is very much into it. Then only Bihar state should reservation, not whole of India.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by anukin on Saturday September 26, 2026 @07:31PM
(#49861635)
Reservation is one of the easiest way to play vote bank politics. It does not benefit anyone other than the politicians and the rich lower caste people.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by soulofmischief on Saturday September 26, 2026 @10:59PM
(#49862943)
That doesn't make it any less arbitrary and ostracizing to those who do not benefit from it. This is the same argument people make in favor of focusing on middle class politics in the US and leaving the poor to kick rocks and die of homelessness, disease or drug addiction. It's an anti-human system rooted in archaic practice and colonial reinforcement.
> Global wealth is much more in the US than in India right now, so it is not wise to compare rags-to-riches of the US with those of India.
I agree and will go further to point out that the "rags to riches" story of the US is mostly a fairytale propped up by a few exceptions. I grew up impoverished and have seen over and over how it affects the trajectory of my life in ways out of my control. Any remarkable success on my part would be in spite of the American economic system, not because of it.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by malshe on Saturday September 26, 2026 @12:13PM
(#49857913)
If Indians could change their caste officially, everybody would be lower caste. In fact there are often protests and agitations by members of certain upper castes to label them lower caste. See this for an example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maratha_reservation_agitation
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by anon291 on Saturday September 26, 2026 @01:37PM
(#49858766)
It's a catch 22. India tracks caste because they're trying to get rid of it. America doesn't track race or social status or whatever. Legal status means nothing really. Especially in urban India, it's becoming very irrelevant what your background is. Are there bigoted regressive people? Yeah of course, but I mean... Those are everywhere. Are there more in India than elsewhere? Probably, compared to urban western nations. But India is like a century behind on social progress id estimate. Still ahead of China where your status is literally tied to your place of birth though.
As for changing caste... You only need to reference it if you're seeking government benefit. If you don't care about it, stop keeping track, and don't share it with your kids... They'll never know and just get assigned general or whatever they call it. Of course, since caste is literally genetic, anyone doing a genetic test will quickly figure it out. However a gene test is not enough for seeking caste benefit status if I understand correctly, so this is as erased as you can get
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by soulofmischief on Saturday September 26, 2026 @10:52PM
(#49862900)
I appreciate your response.
> people bring up the caste system as if it's the cause of every issue there or as if other countries don't have similar problems
This is a straw man; The US is a shit show. China has major problems. The topic is wealth distribution in India.
> While it makes sense for Indian nationals to want their government to do better ... outside observers comparing ought to benchmark countries against one another fairly
I am allowed to study and comment on the state of any government I please. Being from the US doesn't change my ability to think critically and again, the topic of my comment is not "a benchmark of all countries fairly", it's a discussion on future wealth distribution in India.
> All countries have social inequality
Sure! Doesn't change a thing.
> If India were to eliminate social inequality it would become superior to most countries on the planet.
Besides the point. No one here is arguing about where India fits into some arbitrary ranking of countries.
> For the rest of us, I think we need to be reasonable in our assessments, especially when the other country under discussion is China.
China has massive wealth distribution issues as well. We all remember the recent bank runs. That doesn't mean India doesn't have its own problems, which I have brought up.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by drTobiasFunke on Saturday September 26, 2026 @06:07PM
(#49860985)
Nobody is defending caste system. Its bad, and its already illegal as it should be. People are just calling out the hypocrisy when its implied that this kind of stratification is unique to India and unheard of elsewhere. I mean, the west had literal human slaves ffs.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by zdragnar on Saturday September 26, 2026 @10:40PM
(#49862807)
> I mean, the west had literal human slaves ffs.
So did India until 1843 (legally) and, like the rest of the world, still has many people in forced labor and human trafficking in essentially slave relationships.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by drTobiasFunke on Saturday October 03, 2026 @11:43AM
(#49945237)
Absolute lies. The 1843 act was to prevent the east India company from keeping slaves. Thats a western entity.
There are clear records of actual Indian history where slavery was explicitly banned.
Even if there was something, like I said, its nothing different than what others had at that time. So this whole obsession about stratification in Indian society seen as something unique is baffling.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by numpad0 on Saturday September 26, 2026 @07:04PM
(#49861438)
It can be complicated to draw a line between cultural elements worth preserving and crazy religious fantasy that needs to go. Indian caste system, IIUC, is deeply intertwined with their identity and ethics that it cannot be just cut out and removed. It is also partly coming from practical needs just like food related taboos of Middle Eastern religions that would need to be explained for its removal to be justified following the Chesterton's Fence principle.
---
absolute OT trivia that I needed a place to drop: the Indian karma system do not consider beings outside of animal kingdom, e.g. a roadside tree, to be alive and directly involved in the karma and reincarnation and all that, and apparently so did not the original Indian Buddhism. It was originally Chinese, and more prominently Japanese, exposition and localization of Buddhism that changed it up to be the current Studio Ghibli form of it that yes mountains and rivers and 100 year old Italian combat biplanes can all be alive and sentient and that you just ate a carrot is a sort of your original sin and even strictest of vegetarianism is not guilt-free. Your LLM can elaborate on this if necessary...
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by soulofmischief on Saturday September 26, 2026 @10:42PM
(#49862824)
I grew up in the racist, religious Deep South and believe me when I say these toxic ideals are built into the culture. I was literally raised by a hyper-abusive "Obama is the Anti-Christ" type Catholic deacon who force-fed the Bible down my throat on a daily basis. I wasn't allowed to consume media which went against the teachings of the Church.
I educated myself and didn't participate. I resisted. I have little sympathy for those who cannot do the same in their own lives. It's a choice to adapt toxic culture into your life due to social pressures. We all have the internet now.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by soulofmischief on Saturday September 26, 2026 @10:38PM
(#49862793)
What's funny is how many of them jumped to compare India to the US or China... two very corrupt nations each with their own wealth distribution problems... as if that has any bearing at all on India and its caste system. "Hey, I beat my wife, but so does my neighbor! At least I do it with style!"
All I see is cultural and national biases coming out. I simply did not comment on China's own economic and democratic issues, but everyone assumed I either was ignorant or am playing favorites.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by anon291 on Saturday September 26, 2026 @10:43AM
(#49857072)
I am a critic of Indias caste system but China has a state sanctioned caste system while the caste system is condensed by the Indian state and the state takes explicit (many think it over does it) steps to try to mitigate the effects of the caste system
China on the other hand defined your government benefits and the jobs you may get based on where you were born. People born rurally have to fake documents to work illegally in cities.
India has a ton of problems, but china is much worse when it comes to human rights. It's not even right to compare the two countries. India is a flawed somewhat liberal democracy (especially for the region of the world, India is a shining beacon on a hill surrounded by repressive regimes), while China is essentially a dictatorship
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by tancop on Saturday September 26, 2026 @01:53PM
(#49858894)
The hukou system is nothing like that. It's an internal migration thing that works like moving to another country, you can gain "citizenship" of a different area and live there with full benefits.
It was also designed for a clear purpose (slowing down migration into cities that weren't ready to accept it) and was pretty successful, it just outlived its usefulness and became corrupt. Not the same as something based on ancient class divisions that was probably never that useful in the first place.
People work illegally because getting a stamp legally is hard if you don't have money or contacts in the local administration. Same reason as illegal immigrants anywhere else. The central government has been pushing to raise registration quotas and make the process easier but it's clearly not enough.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by drTobiasFunke on Saturday September 26, 2026 @06:05PM
(#49860969)
Well.. caste based discrimination is illegal. But caste based handouts are legal. So a reverse discrimination based on caste is legal and state supported. The only reason caste exists in 2026 is because there are state sponsored incentives if you belong to certain castes.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by maxglute on Saturday September 26, 2026 @01:11PM
(#49858522)
> another billion people with a clear enough path
The opposite, all historical clear paths i.e. manufacturing/export led model is closed/closing (geopolitics + being automated away). Less clear service export also closing. The growth path that employs 100s of millions and 10s of millions are not available to Indian.
Reality is even PRC with most favorable conditions still left behind ~400m people because there's only so many opportunities. It's one thing to have ~1B who made it supporting ~400m who didn't vs India trending towards 1.7 B... and if they end up with 500m that makes it, and 1.2B that doesn't, then things may get very ugly in terms of governance. Now that 500m middle/upper class is large enough that India will in aggregate "make it" as geopolitical power, as in climb the tech tree, but due to sheer population and opportunities that looks now foreclosed, most of Indian's statistically, simply, won't. And when numerator/denominator of haves/have not too skewed, there's nothing haves can do (redistribute) even if they wanted to, which lbh, they won't. IMO this pretty much baked in dynamic for India for next few generations, unless we discover abundance.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by gosub100 on Saturday September 26, 2026 @05:42PM
(#49860803)
with generations of parents forcing thier children to either be doctors or engineers, I would have expected India to lead the world in both of those categories.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by pixelatedindex on Saturday September 26, 2026 @08:19PM
(#49861948)
They kinda did that to themselves, but it's slowly changing. My partner's iPhone 16 is made in India. They really do lack waste management infrastructure though, and it's pretty crucial for this type of manufacturing. They should also borrow the regional concentration of industries that China has done, it really does make things more efficient.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by kennywinker on Sunday September 27, 2026 @03:49AM
(#49864356)
“Made in” has no clean and clear meaning, because our world is so interconnected that everything of sufficient complexity is made from parts that are made from parts that are made in other places.
The iPhones that are “made in india” contain sub-assemblies that are made in china, that contain chips that are made in taiwan, made of metals that were mined in africa, wrapped in plastics derived from middle east oil.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by servo_sausage on Sunday September 27, 2026 @07:32AM
(#49865738)
In this case, the motivation to finish a product in India is mostly about tariff bypassing; with the final assembly being pretty minimal. Not quite putting the badge on, but close.
A good metric is the difference in value between the precursor and the final product; for most Indian phone production, it's less than 1%.
This is also a big reason why Indian export headlines are a bit silly; they never account for the increased import associated with the high value components.
Unclear if this will change going forward; there are some companies doing a higher proportion of the value chain in India, and some big incentives... But to me it's unlikely.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by kennywinker on Sunday September 27, 2026 @12:34PM
(#49868253)
> the motivation to finish a product in India is mostly about tariff bypassing
I don’t think that’s the whole story. Apple started making phones in india in 2017, back when the tariff situation was merely a twinkle in epstein’s best friend’s eye. I think back then it was about general supply chain diversity, more than tariffs specifically. Useful in cases of natural disasters, or trade embargo, and leverage in business negotiations.
By 2024 they were making 36 million iPhones in India, you don’t get to that capacity if you start in november, after the election. Way I see it india was the backup system, and tariffs are the reason they are using the backup system - not the reason they built the backup system in the first place.
> A good metric is the difference in value between the precursor and the final product;
I agree, that’s a useful metric, especially in this case. But it’s also not perfect. E.g. it’s easy to have a >50% “made in USA” product if all the parts are made in china but the last assembly step takes time. Labour in the US is more expensive, so 5-10min of clicking parts together can easily cost more than the parts themselves. You could increase the capacity of that type of manufacturing indefinitely without ever gaining any real independence.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by roenxi on Saturday September 26, 2026 @09:52PM
(#49862561)
> They should also borrow the regional concentration of industries that China has done, it really does make things more efficient.
That is actually something of a natural phenomenon (see [0] it is a large topic). Historically when a centre of excellence forms it tends to be a tight geographical region learning how to do work well.
Government policy should be cluster-friendly but as long as policy doesn't get in the way it happens naturally. The incentives on businesses are to form a cluster independently because the cluster in-group outcompetes businesses outside the cluster.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by thenthenthen on Sunday September 27, 2026 @01:33AM
(#49863616)
This happens ‘naturally’ but in China’s case I would say the majority is planned, see Shenzhen were 90%(?) of the worlds electronics are coming from. The basically send the engineering corps there, flattened the land with explosives and build a special economic zone.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by roenxi on Sunday September 27, 2026 @04:42AM
(#49864631)
Given the success of Shenzhen I'm always a little confused that no-one ever seems to talk about what actually makes it a SEZ. Those policies (mainly local governance & tax exemptions AFAIK) should probably be more widely applied.
If the government plans to try free-market capitalism then I'm in favour of the plan.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by thenthenthen on Sunday September 27, 2026 @07:00AM
(#49865560)
Its a pretty complex topic. There are some hints in the book Extrastatecraft by
Keller Easterling, also the Great Leap Forward by Rem Koolhaas and a dozen more urbanism books. But these only highlight specific aspects, of which there are still many to be talked about.
"One example we use is the No.3 Memory of Lenin Tractor Repair Factory in Zhuhai, which already in 1973 had started repairing tractors outside the plan. It would take tractors that needed to be repaired from other units, repair them on the side of the plan, and then get payment in kind. That payment in kind was then either bartered further within Guangdong, or smuggled downriver to Hong Kong. By 1973 this unit had a Hong Kong bank account. If this had been discovered at the central level, these people would have been shot."
Turning Shenzhen from an off-limits border area into a special economic zone made it easy for those businesses to go legit and grow, but they were already waiting in the shadows to seize that opportunity.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by thenthenthen on Sunday September 27, 2026 @09:51PM
(#49872640)
Nice reference, thanks! And yeas, for sure proximity to Hong Kong was a big part of this! It is a financial hub, was a production hub, smuggling, triads, international hub, tax haven, the list goes on.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by dlisboa on Saturday September 26, 2026 @09:22PM
(#49862401)
You can't just "borrow" some of the things from China without China politics. Regional concentration there is directly tied with their hukou system. No democratic government is able to implement that system without collapsing.
Most of China development is sui generis and not replicable elsewhere.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by Terr_ on Sunday September 27, 2026 @03:17AM
(#49864174)
I've seen (at least in prior decades) a similar phenomenon where certain more laissez-faire US folks talked up Hong Kong's reputation for business-friendly taxation. Yet the other necessary parts of the system were glossed over, like the massive sovereign-wealth fund, or how half of all housing was government-run or subsidized.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by Terr_ on Sunday September 27, 2026 @11:52AM
(#49867790)
> You're mixing up Hong Kong and Singapore;
I lived there, Mister Confidently-Incorrect!
It sounds like you're saw Singapore Fun Facts once, and in your mind it permanently excluded any other place from having similar features.
* Like I said, Hong Kong does have a significant sovereign wealth fund that ranks in the top 10. [0]. It doesn't stop mattering just because Singapore runs a bigger one.
* Here's a article from 2021 with a nice stacked-graph showing 45% public housing [1], close to the half I mentioned.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by usrnm on Sunday September 27, 2026 @04:51AM
(#49864687)
China is very much repeating the history of Japan, and while we can argue how democratic Japan was in the second half of the XX century it definitely wasn't totalitarian.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by dv_dt on Sunday September 27, 2026 @05:36AM
(#49865006)
I don't think the important part is actually one for one replication of the system in China. I think the key parts to deliver progress are diversity of investment decisions, competitiveness in markets, and stable long term goals & fiscal support.
It's too easy to get tied up in political labels, when any hybrid of public and private support for those helps growth. None of political ideas has an exclusive lock on providing the factors. At this point, I really don't think any political system guarantees the development outcomes, there are examples of all labels which fail one to all of those progress factors.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by maxglute on Saturday September 26, 2026 @12:59PM
(#49858398)
TBH India going to sanctioned if they ever make meaningful inroad. Outsourcing some IV design to Bengaluru, Hyderabad, prune is not the same as if India wants to start stepping on leading edge fabrication money printing toes. But short/medium term, western semi projected to have 100,000s talent shortage so India probably best hope for western semi to stay staffed. VS PRC who is brrrting out enough talent for entire indigenous vertical semis supply chain.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by dgellow on Saturday September 26, 2026 @09:29AM
(#49856355)
No? If that’s common knowledge that’s a common lie. It’s not really growing much but there is no collapse occurring. And if you look more specifically at countries some are growing rapidly
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by password54321 on Saturday September 26, 2026 @11:43AM
(#49857608)
You need to travel rather than just hearing about boogeyman stories online. Most of the world is relatively poor. Who do you think is about to catch up? Indonesia? India? Have you seen these places? Their economy is big largely due to their population size.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by 73488448 on Saturday September 26, 2026 @11:56AM
(#49857734)
Every time I visit a third world country it looks much better than ten years ago.
In Europe it's the opposite. It's evolving backwards outside of the tourist hotspots.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by christkv on Sunday September 27, 2026 @05:37AM
(#49865017)
If you stagnate economically then you are shrinking. Inflation eats up the purchasing power and you get poorer. In a lot of European countries the purchasing power of the population has been decimated over the last 20 years. Only a few countries in the east are the exception.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by viraptor on Saturday September 26, 2026 @09:47AM
(#49856527)
A lot of the "growth" is debt and money going in circles. We'll see how much of it actually stays around next year. So far the US already has to bail out the datacentre expansion by funding transmission lines upgrades instead of asking for money for it from the companies.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by mitxela on Saturday September 26, 2026 @10:44AM
(#49857084)
What single source would satisfy you that the current US economy is a Ponzi scheme? I don't think it's really provable or falsifiable until long after the fact. We could start by pointing to the bond market or the price of gas?
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by sublimefire on Saturday September 26, 2026 @10:12AM
(#49856766)
Misleading article, they are selling to corporations already who in turn have plans to create a few fabs in Europe. So it is maybe more about European companies who are not buying, but that rests on difficult capital availability and fragmented nature of the continent. Europe is not one country after all, someone wants a fab in Germany, but the why is it not in France or Sweeden.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by shevy-java on Saturday September 26, 2026 @10:21AM
(#49856849)
The EU needs to stop acting as if all is fine. The EU commission is totally useless, from A to Z. There is zero strategy in play here. They need to take a much more pro-active stance - fining US companies that work against europeans is fine, but you also need to have viable alternatives. And that simply is not happening right now.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by jurschreuder on Saturday September 26, 2026 @10:28AM
(#49856923)
The Dutch govt is slowly nationalising the chip industry, by making taxes so high no company can survive international competition, and then using this tax money to buy stock in all deep tech companies calling it investing.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by SR2Z on Saturday September 26, 2026 @11:23AM
(#49857436)
Philosophy, theory, and arts are so intertwined with technology that a nation which does not build cannot be expected to remain at the forefront of those three.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by conmod278 on Saturday September 26, 2026 @01:50PM
(#49858871)
In thermodynamics, through cycles of expansion and compression, useful work can be extracted. Similarly through economic cycles, America is able to extract wealth from rest of globe.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by aennassiri on Saturday September 26, 2026 @10:41AM
(#49857054)
I'm fed up with the regular euro bashing. People are underestimating what EU countries can do. The whole history was similar. France, for example, was neither the first to build high-end luxury products nor was it the first to embrace the Industrial Revolution. It managed to catch up in any case.
EU countries went from killing each other in two of the most deadly wars to having a union in 30 years.
I wish that the EU did the same as China did years ago, and that is to block any non-EU tech company from entering the market. We could have had the Google/Meta equivalent years ago.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by aennassiri on Saturday September 26, 2026 @01:02PM
(#49858436)
Yes definitely, this is why I see the shift with AI as an opportunity to push forward new companies. EU needs to put the focus on hardware where it did have a competitive advantage few years ago (still have on B2B hardware)
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by roenxi on Saturday September 26, 2026 @10:57AM
(#49857206)
> EU countries went from killing each other in two of the most deadly wars to having a union in 30 years.
Was that the halcyon period where they were too broken to fight back and got the continent split between the Americans and the Communists? Or the modern period where it turns out the security situation in Europe was so totally mishandled that we ended up with the Ukraine war?
The spectre of nukes getting used isn't dropping over time and this sort of grinding destructive war is probably raising the risk of a big conflagration. Everyone seems to be rearming.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by roenxi on Saturday September 26, 2026 @09:40PM
(#49862486)
I mean the EU got its diplomacy so badly wrong that it sparked one of the deadliest wars this century in Europe and the EU countries appear to be rearming in preparation for the state of war spreading. The EU seem to be in the process of destabilising the state that controls the largest cache of nuclear weapons in existence.
The project has not scored well on matters of war and peace. And there is still a far too likely possibility here that after re-arming and in an era of war the Europeans fall back to their old tricks and descend into a state of war against each other again, given that the adults keeping them peaceful seem to have left the building.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by roenxi on Sunday September 27, 2026 @03:40AM
(#49864308)
How could they not share the blame? Is the EU so institutionally weak it has no power to influence events in Europe? I don't see how they could be that ineffective.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by SR2Z on Saturday September 26, 2026 @11:22AM
(#49857428)
China still does not have many companies on the level of American technology firms. Just restricting foreign competition in the domestic market is not enough for most places to compete; their domestic markets and investment levels are too underdeveloped to produce globally competitive companies.
The thing that produces competitive industries is requiring them to compete globally. That's how Chinese cars got good (Tesla joint venture -> independent Chinese Tesla -> competitive domestic companies).
The three main reasons why the EU struggles to produce strong text companies are, IMO:
1. EU laws and regulations are very burdensome and cover everything from employees to packaging waste.
2. There is not enough capital that gets invested in EU tech companies to pay high tech salaries, again largely driven by more restrictive financial rules.
The result of these two is that European engineers tend to leave for the US, and European companies struggle to grow to American size.
Around 70% of American billionaires made their money themselves, while in the EU a similar share inherited it. Despite all the talk about social mobility in Europe being better than in the US, the truth is that the ultrawealthy in Europe have created a regulatory environment which makes it nearly impossible for real competition to exist.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by aennassiri on Saturday September 26, 2026 @01:00PM
(#49858413)
Interesting! I would split regulation in two different types though. The fist one is merely the output of bureaucracy and good intentions and a second that is targeting US tech companies as EU can't compete.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by TMWNN on Saturday September 26, 2026 @03:18PM
(#49859645)
>Around 70% of American billionaires made their money themselves, while in the EU a similar share inherited it.
The top 100 wealthiest Austrian families own two thirds of the country's wealth <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36755835>, and none of the wealth came from tech companies. The same is likely true of Germany with one exception: SAP.
Put another way, the two wealthiest German-born tech people (except the founders of SAP) are Peter Thiel and Andy Bechtolsheim, both of whom earned their billions in the US.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by maxnevermind on Saturday September 26, 2026 @04:08PM
(#49860068)
> Just restricting foreign competition in the domestic market is not enough ...
Yes, It is not sufficient but I would argue it was necessary. In case of China it allowed them to have a set of domestic copycat companies like Baid, Alibaba and Tencent, that enabled high demand for local engineers to serve their needs and that allowed to have a large pool of competent domestic engineers which now can benefit other emerging sectors too. It keeps surprising how many top contributors to large OSS projects are from China.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by Rumple22Stilk on Saturday September 26, 2026 @11:07AM
(#49857289)
This is not remotely racist. It's simply a fact, and the result of a lack of nationalist ideology.
Turns out if it's more economically efficient to simply import skilled workers, or outsource, then that's what will happen. Breeding and educating your own citizens in a first world country is very expensive. So you don't do it.
The only reason not to do this is national preference. Economically it makes sense, on a national level it makes sense, individually it's genocide.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by bigyabai on Saturday September 26, 2026 @11:11AM
(#49857331)
Individually, you have to accept migrants if your personal demographic is below the replacement rate. Otherwise you will never retire, and your kids (if any) will work in a nursing economy at minimum wage.
It's petty and anti-nationalist to demand that your nation destroy it's own economy to fit your arbitrary political mold.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by Rumple22Stilk on Saturday September 26, 2026 @12:10PM
(#49857868)
This is an absurd set of assumptions that have forced you into a nonsensical position.
No, you don't need to accept migrants. You need money. You can get money in many many ways.
The best way for this to happen for the general prosperity of citizens is for the state to enrich themselves from the work of others, non citizens, and give that money to citizens. This is what Norway has done through it's sovereign wealth fund.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by bigyabai on Saturday September 26, 2026 @01:23PM
(#49858647)
It's absolutely not an absurd set of assumptions. The majority of the demographics you're worried about are beneath the replacement rate. They are going to necessarily reach a point where the youth workforce cannot sustain the outsized elderly population or protect them in a war scenario.
If you do not want to defend Europe's front lines with teenage conscripts and geriatric riflemen, you need a way to bring warm bodies into the fold. Refusing lawful immigration will undermine domestic security, doom the elderly and ruin pension funds for future retirees. No sovereign wealth fund is worth losing your sovereignty over.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by Rumple22Stilk on Saturday September 26, 2026 @03:04PM
(#49859519)
Yes, they are an absurd set of assumptions.
I told you what the requirement was. Money. You have simply arbitrarily decided instead it's just people for no reason at all. As though magically people will spawn resources from their finger tips. According to you the richest countries in the world must be the most populous.
Obviously this is idiotic to even a cursory examination.
The next assumption you've made is that birth rate is completely random, a roll of the dice, an unchangeable fact of the universe. The reality is of course it's a result of policy and economics. This can be solved extremely easily.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by bigyabai on Saturday September 26, 2026 @05:15PM
(#49860613)
I'm sorry. You cannot accuse me of setting absurd assumptions and then outline "the requirement" as if reality is Go Fish and I misplayed my card. Macropolitics are multidimensional, the babies born tomorrow are eighteen years away from reaching the workforce. There are no policy or economic changes that make your children grow faster.
Europe's troop deficit is just as immediate and pressing as the economic and policy problems. It would be nice if we could ignore it, but you can only expand your domestic middle class if you don't condemn them to the conscription lines first.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by Rumple22Stilk on Saturday September 26, 2026 @06:12PM
(#49861028)
It's very funny you try to make that argument when your requirement was literally just MIGRANTS, because MIGRANTS = PENSIONS. Which is hilariously a subset of my own requirement, more specific. Absolutely absurd.
No. What I said is just a fact. There's no assumption, the requirement is a fact. You need money to pay for goods and services for the people no longer working.
There's no assumption there? What's the assumption, that goods and services need to be paid for?
So stop bringing up migrants for no reason at all. The actual issue is money, and there are many ways to obtain money.
The nonsense about troops is of course ridiculous. Just a fantastical statement divorced from reality. Who is this enemy Europe is facing that will require a ww1 style meat grinder of 10s of millions of troops, which of course took place when the european population was half the size.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by bigyabai on Saturday September 26, 2026 @05:12PM
(#49860595)
Yes, you do. The frontlines of Ukraine are being prepared for literal demographic replacement as we speak. Kidnapped Ukrainian children are attending Russian schools, fortifications and bases are being dug out for them to fight against their own kin.
Are you enlisted? Do you want to be? Europe needed to figure out it's defense plan yesterday, not in 20 years. If Europe won't ally with migrants, then maintaining European sovereignty is nearly impossible.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by Geee on Saturday September 26, 2026 @08:52PM
(#49862177)
We've now learned that this isn't true for all migrant groups, and it has been an extremely costly mistake to make. Demographic replacement can't work positively if the productivity of migrants is below of the original demographic, and actually makes the situation worse. Europe might have learned this too late, but at least now EU and most European countries are changing course.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by malshe on Saturday September 26, 2026 @12:19PM
(#49857987)
> I wish that the EU did the same as China did years ago, and that is to block any non-EU tech company from entering the market. We could have had the Google/Meta equivalent years ago.
You can do it even today. But you can't bring back manufacturing from China. You gave them your techology and the market.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by ksec on Saturday September 26, 2026 @12:21PM
(#49858007)
>EU countries went from killing each other in two of the most deadly wars to having a union in 30 years.
I guess you mean EEC in 1958, because EU was officially formed in 1993. And normally people would count the period of the two World War and starting to count by the end of it. Either way it is a lot more than 30 years.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by aennassiri on Saturday September 26, 2026 @12:58PM
(#49858386)
Yes indeed ! What is important is that the same people/generation who witnessed the atrocities of war and resented each other decided to create a union
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by vlyan on Saturday September 26, 2026 @12:25PM
(#49858044)
times change. past greatness is not a reliable predictor for the future. Mongolia is rather unlikely to be the largest empire ever again, don't you think?
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by vlyan on Saturday September 26, 2026 @06:48PM
(#49861313)
its political stability and relative prosperity makes it an important consumer market, sure, but it's increasingly clear that Europe is no longer "great" great. its wealth was a product of being ahead of the rest of the world for a long time technologically and militarily, but the colonial era is over, so many others had caught up and are now eating their lunch. even the big three -- Germany, France, and Britain -- are in cultural, economic, and demographic decline. the alliance that binds them is loose and incoherent, promoting stagnation rather than innovation. the US brain drains its brightest while Europe itself frantically replaces its aging natives with whoever is willing to cross its undefended borders.
if the US or China had disappeared tomorrow, it would affect the rest of the world. what does an average person outside of Europe own that was made in Europe or couldn't be made in China instead? even ASML, its crown jewel, is built upon American tech and would be rebuilt in the US within a decade if there was necessity to do so.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by bar8uyr on Sunday September 27, 2026 @09:46AM
(#49866618)
America and China cannot build ASML or anything close or they would have (China may soon). Europe is the same as ever. America relies on tech software which is getting replaced very quickly by AI. China relies on cheap labour which will get more expensive as they become more prosperous.
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by aennassiri on Saturday September 26, 2026 @01:32PM
(#49858723)
Totally aligned ! As a European, I was never into this US bashing. I looked up to the Americans in the same way the french did back in the 19th century when they gifted them statue of liberty
Re:ASML currently sells no chipmaking machines in Europe, ex...
by KronisLV on Saturday September 26, 2026 @06:24PM
(#49861132)
> I'm fed up with the regular euro bashing. People are underestimating what EU countries can do.
I'm from the EU and glad to be a part of it. I just wish it was easier to do multi-national projects (I think anything aerospace or military related shows how little the countries want to collaborate) or even just tackle large projects and undertakings better.
Hell, in regards to chips I'd be happy with at least 2020 level performance chips for servers, desktops and laptops, even ARM ones. Okay maybe that is aiming too high cause my current Ryzen 7 5800X is from 2020 and so is my M1 MacBook Air and I don't see the need to upgrade, even 2016 would be good enough. Just more domestic production, CPUs, GPUs, memory, storage, everything else.
They should make another law and probably a few more commissions of auditors.
This stuff is all blood, sweat and tears to get it done, and to be honest a culture.
You can't just buy it off the shelf. If that was possible everyone would have gone paid for it like an Ikea product years ago.
The inability to cope with failure is a culture that is common in Europe. Failure is so personally devastating, so destructive to social and cultural standing that not only must you not take risks but other people must be actively prevented from taking risk.
Maybe the US investment doesn't work, but the US will have tried at least. Taiwan is, ironically, the perfect example of where the initial impetus came from the government because there was no culture of risk-taking. Parts of Europe have a savings culture that is very similar to Taiwan and led to very poor growth and very high inequality.
If the US keeps trying, they will succeed. On here, the view was that China could never build out this capacity, they did. The only way to guarantee failure is to never try.
Older article, but seems like things are going pretty ok?
The Taiwanese are doing a lot to try get it up but all the reports on the ground level are rough.
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/ts...
USA passed the CHIPS Act and is spending close to a trillion dollars to strategically re-home all of TSMC's most advanced fab technology to Arizona as a matter of national security. Monetary losses don't matter when the point is to not be reliant or China in the event of South China Sea conflict.
I think the point of this article, and the warnings from ASML, is that Europe is not making the same effort.
Like are you really going to buy a chip that costs 70% more out of national pride? Might work on some but think that very few else will sign up for that.
You'll do that because of national adversity?
People really don't understand how this stuff is borderline magic turning silicon into these things. There's so much that can go wrong at every step, it's the most advanced manufacturing process on Earth.
Once upon a time chips went down in value but I don't think that's happening anymore, lot of other people seem aware of that. Not to mention the semiconductor talent is getting eaten up like pancakes everywhere.
And that's largely because the average Brit has terrible beliefs that actively make them poorer. A shockingly high percentage of people believe that building more houses won't lower costs.
I make average US wages, have my entire adult life. I cannot afford a house in my city unless I buy a literal ruin in the ghetto. The suburbs are far more expensive, and that's where the McMansion complexes are. I don't know who's buying them, but it isn't me and likely never will be.
Very disingenuous counterpoint.
Also corner shops should be allowed everywhere.
People should be able to build where they want.
We can have reasonable restrictions around noise and pollution, but not on the land use itself.
Scotland is a good example: every government since the mid-2010s has been elected on the explicit promise to build more houses, they cannot do so because of the electoral consequences so they attempt to build council houses, it is impossible for the government to build enough council houses to make up for multiple decades of underbuilding (this problem has accelerated significantly whilst they have been promising to build housing, had explicit targets, etc.), but at the next election they make the same promises (and people vote for them because there is no alternative).
The really strange thing is that people also see the massive growth in student housing in Scotland. Again, very good for politicians: more conservative foreign students can't vote, domestic students will vote left-wing.
The politics of this topic are very strange. The public is still at the stage where they think in vague terms that the problem is a lack of housing.
I believe the problem is worse in Scotland because the growth in council housing in the 60/70s was organised in order to create this permanent bloc vote. The same has happened in London where you have whole constituencies where 70% of the effective vote is void.
This doesn’t add up. Promising to get more housing built is getting these people elected, but they can’t make good on this promise because then they will lose their election?
Politicians continue with the lie that they will build council houses. Voters continue with the lie that voting will change the outcome.
That's a conspiracy theory and a half!
A lot of the new student accommodation being built is privately owned. They're chasing the (pre-Brexit/pandemic) overheating market for student accommodation that resulted from the universities targeting international students for the inflated tuition fees they can charge, and in some cases have features explicitly advertised to international students as positives (e.g. some of the ones in Nottingham have built in rice cookers as standard). However, some of the properties are at risk of becoming unviable (e.g. lying empty or having to be turned over to housing non students [0]) because of a combination of Brexit and tightened immigration rules.
If they're being built as some kind of social engineering it would be a really convoluted way of going about it.
0: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce3l09p664ro
Airbus proves the EU can do this. It remains to be seen if they still have the ability to take constructive action, or if “add more bureaucracy” is the only tool remaining in the toolbox.
*could.
Airbus has been grandfathered into the current legal situation. Today a future Airbus would not be able to even start collecting data for its initial Environmental Impact Study.
And Boeing's rampant carelessness proves European laws can be beneficial. "Hurr durr, how about them European laws" is a low-effort comment that adds nothing to the discussions.
The argument that a slack regulatory environment is sufficient was disproven when the US government subsidized new fabs via the CHIPS Act (a new law!), and then went further and partially nationalized a failing Intel to prop it up.
And there’s a supply chain, with packaging often separate from fab.
It seems like a reasonable objection but not a showstopper.
Nobody said that. That is a strawman
For those unaware, Mo Chang rarely gives interviews, let alone to English language media. This Acquired podcast episode is pretty incredible: https://www.acquired.fm/episodes/tsmc-founder-morris-chang
Fun fact in this context: (Dutch) Philips was a major initial investor in TSMC (both in money and IP):
Only Philips was willing to sign a joint venture contract with Taiwan to put up $58 million, transfer its production technology, and license intellectual property in exchange for a 27.6 percent stake in TSMC.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC#History
It was pretty clear that this fab - much like the other Bosch facilities - is going to be for automotive and industry ICs, not for high end node sizes in CPUs or GPUs.
The Infineon Smart Power Fab was opened some months ago and builds power ICs for the energy market. Probably something like ACDC and DCAC converter ICs. This is also needed in AI data centers. https://www.infineon.com/de/regional/dresden/smart-power-fab
European Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (ESMC), the TSMC fab in Dresden is still under construction and will produce logic chips in 28nm or 16nm. Bosch, Infineon, and NXP each have 10% share in this fab. I assume that it will mostly produce products which will be sold by these 3 companies, probably just the next generations from what they already sell. This fab was 50% subsidized by the German government.
GlobalFoundries also has a big 20nm Fab in Dresden.
The most advanced logic fab in the EU is the Intel fab in Ireland.
[ Intel has yet to prove that it can sustain itself as a foundry for third parties, and until they do, I have a hard time believing the massive culture shift required across the whole company can be achieved without splitting the company up into separate parts. Samsung has fallen behind, but at least they have diversity across a variety of markets including HBM. Neither have leading edge fabs in Europe, so everything continues falls back on TSMC. ]
I think one of the big differences is that the "Gate Contact Area" simply isn't the smallest "feature" anymore - but the ITRS that defined those names called it "feature size", not "gate size" from the beginning intentionally.
You probably could make a transitor with a gate size of a similar order to the "feature size", it'll just perform awfully to be completely useless.
So you seem to know more about ASML's business than the ASML executive quoted in this article.
1. They provided evidence (construction of a fab in Dresden).
2. Executives lie all of the time.
Aside: after all of the denunciations of AI companies claims of danger, I expected comments here to be denouncing this as a “ASML shill article trying to get the government to buy more of their product”. Not that I believe, but the contrast is striking.
even more so it is reasonable to assume their (executive) statement was a simplification ignoring small for the overall statement irrelevant exceptions
like ignoring there being a factory build which is small and only meant for older nodes producing embedded chips and is for the car industry only
because honestly while the factory does matter for Bosh, it doesn't really make much difference for the larger picture of chip production in the EU
Will lie for billions of taxpayers money.
oddly cheering for this but I doubt it will end well
* https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-china-built-its-manh...
When China leads chip making the rest of the world is just vasal states.
It's well known tech that is used globally, just not to that degree as yield and throughput goes way down
they'd just tell all their export ships to turn around and stop all exports
US would collapse in 30 days
it would be like the blockade US is doing to Cuba except 90% of every product we use and they wouldn't have to fire a single shot
they could also sell off the billions in US bonds and other assets
US economy would be utterly destroyed, we'd never recover because even the middle-class would be living out of their cars (now dead because all the parts for them are made in China)
In my opinion, India is around 30 years behind China. This is unlikely to change for several reasons. However, the primary reason is that no Indian government ever had a manufacturing policy that comes close to China's. The service economy is strong but employs a tiny percentage of the population.
Most of Indian government spending is on welfare followed by endemic corruption. It leaves very little money for nation building.
Design, the gap is nonexistent in terms of talent deployed (though we have some way to go to have homegrown product companies). Which puts us roughly where Europe is.
Also consider, a tiny percentage of the Indian population is a ridiculous number of people. Dwarfing pretty much any other country except China.
Your last point on welfare and corruption is also false; 35% of government spend is on interest payments (which is kind of normal for most countries?) and 30% is on infrastructure and other capex. Defence is 8% and central welfare schemes plus co-sponsored schemes with the states are only 26%. The point being, while corruption is definitely a problem, it doesn’t significantly come out of the central budget. And welfare is smaller than infrastructure spending even if it’s quite significant (and it better be, in a country like this).
Only an estimated 6 million Indians work in IT and tech services where the money is. India's working age population is approximately 950 million. India had the golden opportunity to bring manufacturing to India when Western companies wanted to reduce their dependence on China. But it wasted it.
I don't know where you are getting that 30% spending on infrastructue.
How many people do you think could conceivably work in manufacturing? And who buys all those manufactured goods? The social problem isn’t solved by quotas.
India's data collection is much worse than China's but we can also look at other metrics like exports. India exports less in total value than a resource-starved, tiny nation like South Korea.
https://www.perplexity.ai/search/3aba98a3-cba1-49d8-bcb4-869...
Thus, India could at least add another 100 million manufacturing jobs, along with an additional 100 million service jobs to support manufacturing in logistics, trade, maintenance, customer support, insurance, and food service.
Given the structure of Indian constitution which gives very little power to local governments to raise revenue and build infrastructure, India is structurally limited as of now from ever becoming as developed as China, let alone western countries.
I see India becoming more like Brazil than China. That's not necessarily a bad thing since even Brazil is 4-5x richer in per capita than India.
That’s great, but does not translate well to ..say.. manufacturing modern chips or jet engines.
US patents are only valid in the US. India is not "ignoring" anything by not following foreign laws. Can someone with an Indian patent enforce it in the US?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patent_Cooperation_Treaty
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_parties_to_internation...
"A PCT application does not itself result in the grant of a patent, since there is no such thing as an "international patent", and the grant of patent is a prerogative of each national or regional authority."
So, actually, No.
Depends on what you mean by "a little behind". Reading Patrick McGee's "Apple in China" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_in_China) made me think otherwise.
I'm hoping for India development but that is quite far from the truth yet.
IMO the evidence suggests it is mostly tax policy and whether people are allowed to start and run businesses. Culture is important insofar as it affects those areas of policy. Getting wealthy is literally as simple as being able to create new wealth and keep it, plus lots of time. People don't choose to stay poor unless someone with a gun forces them to be poor.
Yes, that sums it up. The biggest problem is government officials who get in the way of starting or running a business, ask for bribes, and generally make it impossible to do any non-software non-backoffice business work. Plus taxes.
- As another commenter has noted, modern China is Communist only in name.
- Your analysis of how simple creating new wealth is, or how people only stay poor when a "gun forces them to" makes it painfully obvious that you and I grew up in different wealth classes. It's not that simple to acquire wealth, and poverty is a massive feedback loop. Wealth compounds, and so does poverty. This is the nature of capitalism.
Arguably India has the class system tied to the prevailing religion, but religion too has faded with modernity. Systems have a habit of breaking under strain and time.
> Reality is that every country has its own way of sorting wealth to the most favored.
No shit!
However, when I discuss the issues with wealth distribution here in America, no one goes, "But India has a caste system!"
Yet apparently pointing out issues with India's wealth distribution, I'm met with deflection, blame games and a horde of people patronizingly assuming without cause that I live under a rock and have no grasp of global economics, politics or history.
Comparing the lack of a legal caste system because “of some sort” to a legal framework is quite the leap.
Coloreds are still hugely overrepresented in the criminal "justice" system, they're still much poorer on average, are still disenfranchised en-masse through gerrymandering and voter ID requirements that accept shooters' club membership cards but not ID cards poorer blacks might possess, etc.
For all intents and purposes, the USA has a caste system that has evolved from an earlier system that was apartheid in all but name.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependen...
For the rest of us, I think we need to be reasonable in our assessments, especially when the other country under discussion is China.
Seems like it isn’t a system worth defending. China has so many issues, it also blows my mind that people around here defend and praise China like they’re doing good things. They aren’t.
There are some pockets where this is not true, but they are exceptions.
And those comments aren't defending it.
Upward mobility is available in India, too. But remember that to have "upward mobility", there needs to be place at the top. For a country which has been under hundreds of years of regressive colonial rulers, there is not much place at the top.
Global wealth is much more in the US than in India right now, so it is not wise to compare rags-to-riches of the US with those of India.
India's government jobs, elite engineering and medical seats have a legal 50%+ quota for "lower" castes people. Did you know that? So, I am saying, 50%+ students graduating ALL elite engineering and law and medical and nursing schools, etc. are from these "lower" castes. Did you know that?
I have always been taught that greatness is in work (karma), and not in birth (janma), and honestly I have seen it practiced.
A "lower" caste High School teacher gets visibly much more respect in our society than a random priest from "higher" caste.
Not to say it isn’t a problem. But race is still a problem elsewhere too.
Yet, we also outlawed slavery and Jim Crow laws in the US and yet my local prison in the Deep South is filled with 90%+ Black people. We outlawed redlining and yet the modern credit score system does an excellent job of continuing the purpose of preventing Black people from getting loans and leveraging their wealth.
All this to say, my understanding is the sentiment and infrastructure are still in place regarding India's caste system.
This is like saying America's racial quotas (or former ones) put you in a 'bucket'. Caste is essentially race / genetics. You are not bucketed, it is simply a reality of your ancestry. Of course you can't change it.. you cannot change your genetics. This is a ridiculous goal post.
Caste is very much alive in India and this sort of blanket denialism reeks of upper caste privilege.
If caste is all that irrelevant, please go ahead with changing your surname to an obviously lower caste one. We will see how quickly you come crawling back to your so called “irrelevant” caste privilege.
Honestly the caste never comes up. In almost any conversation. And I also grew up far away from megacities.
I only heard a couple of priests blabber about the glory of their caste, but they were piss poor and had nothing else to be proud of. And they were bad as priests as well. That is, you wouldn't call them if you care about pure Sanskrit pronunciation, carefulness and seriousness during rituals, etc.
The people who suffered are dead. The people who committed discrimination are dead. Yet the whole nation has to accomodate. Reservation must be done on Pro-Rata basis. If one state like Kerela is advanced, doesn't do caste discrimination and another like Bihar is very much into it. Then only Bihar state should reservation, not whole of India.
> Global wealth is much more in the US than in India right now, so it is not wise to compare rags-to-riches of the US with those of India.
I agree and will go further to point out that the "rags to riches" story of the US is mostly a fairytale propped up by a few exceptions. I grew up impoverished and have seen over and over how it affects the trajectory of my life in ways out of my control. Any remarkable success on my part would be in spite of the American economic system, not because of it.
As for changing caste... You only need to reference it if you're seeking government benefit. If you don't care about it, stop keeping track, and don't share it with your kids... They'll never know and just get assigned general or whatever they call it. Of course, since caste is literally genetic, anyone doing a genetic test will quickly figure it out. However a gene test is not enough for seeking caste benefit status if I understand correctly, so this is as erased as you can get
> people bring up the caste system as if it's the cause of every issue there or as if other countries don't have similar problems
This is a straw man; The US is a shit show. China has major problems. The topic is wealth distribution in India.
> While it makes sense for Indian nationals to want their government to do better ... outside observers comparing ought to benchmark countries against one another fairly
I am allowed to study and comment on the state of any government I please. Being from the US doesn't change my ability to think critically and again, the topic of my comment is not "a benchmark of all countries fairly", it's a discussion on future wealth distribution in India.
> All countries have social inequality
Sure! Doesn't change a thing.
> If India were to eliminate social inequality it would become superior to most countries on the planet.
Besides the point. No one here is arguing about where India fits into some arbitrary ranking of countries.
> For the rest of us, I think we need to be reasonable in our assessments, especially when the other country under discussion is China.
China has massive wealth distribution issues as well. We all remember the recent bank runs. That doesn't mean India doesn't have its own problems, which I have brought up.
So did India until 1843 (legally) and, like the rest of the world, still has many people in forced labor and human trafficking in essentially slave relationships.
Even if there was something, like I said, its nothing different than what others had at that time. So this whole obsession about stratification in Indian society seen as something unique is baffling.
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absolute OT trivia that I needed a place to drop: the Indian karma system do not consider beings outside of animal kingdom, e.g. a roadside tree, to be alive and directly involved in the karma and reincarnation and all that, and apparently so did not the original Indian Buddhism. It was originally Chinese, and more prominently Japanese, exposition and localization of Buddhism that changed it up to be the current Studio Ghibli form of it that yes mountains and rivers and 100 year old Italian combat biplanes can all be alive and sentient and that you just ate a carrot is a sort of your original sin and even strictest of vegetarianism is not guilt-free. Your LLM can elaborate on this if necessary...
I educated myself and didn't participate. I resisted. I have little sympathy for those who cannot do the same in their own lives. It's a choice to adapt toxic culture into your life due to social pressures. We all have the internet now.
All I see is cultural and national biases coming out. I simply did not comment on China's own economic and democratic issues, but everyone assumed I either was ignorant or am playing favorites.
China on the other hand defined your government benefits and the jobs you may get based on where you were born. People born rurally have to fake documents to work illegally in cities.
India has a ton of problems, but china is much worse when it comes to human rights. It's not even right to compare the two countries. India is a flawed somewhat liberal democracy (especially for the region of the world, India is a shining beacon on a hill surrounded by repressive regimes), while China is essentially a dictatorship
It was also designed for a clear purpose (slowing down migration into cities that weren't ready to accept it) and was pretty successful, it just outlived its usefulness and became corrupt. Not the same as something based on ancient class divisions that was probably never that useful in the first place.
People work illegally because getting a stamp legally is hard if you don't have money or contacts in the local administration. Same reason as illegal immigrants anywhere else. The central government has been pushing to raise registration quotas and make the process easier but it's clearly not enough.
Does India's caste system work like that? Can a lower caste person apply to be in a higher caste?
The opposite, all historical clear paths i.e. manufacturing/export led model is closed/closing (geopolitics + being automated away). Less clear service export also closing. The growth path that employs 100s of millions and 10s of millions are not available to Indian.
Reality is even PRC with most favorable conditions still left behind ~400m people because there's only so many opportunities. It's one thing to have ~1B who made it supporting ~400m who didn't vs India trending towards 1.7 B... and if they end up with 500m that makes it, and 1.2B that doesn't, then things may get very ugly in terms of governance. Now that 500m middle/upper class is large enough that India will in aggregate "make it" as geopolitical power, as in climb the tech tree, but due to sheer population and opportunities that looks now foreclosed, most of Indian's statistically, simply, won't. And when numerator/denominator of haves/have not too skewed, there's nothing haves can do (redistribute) even if they wanted to, which lbh, they won't. IMO this pretty much baked in dynamic for India for next few generations, unless we discover abundance.
The iPhones that are “made in india” contain sub-assemblies that are made in china, that contain chips that are made in taiwan, made of metals that were mined in africa, wrapped in plastics derived from middle east oil.
A good metric is the difference in value between the precursor and the final product; for most Indian phone production, it's less than 1%. This is also a big reason why Indian export headlines are a bit silly; they never account for the increased import associated with the high value components.
Unclear if this will change going forward; there are some companies doing a higher proportion of the value chain in India, and some big incentives... But to me it's unlikely.
I don’t think that’s the whole story. Apple started making phones in india in 2017, back when the tariff situation was merely a twinkle in epstein’s best friend’s eye. I think back then it was about general supply chain diversity, more than tariffs specifically. Useful in cases of natural disasters, or trade embargo, and leverage in business negotiations.
By 2024 they were making 36 million iPhones in India, you don’t get to that capacity if you start in november, after the election. Way I see it india was the backup system, and tariffs are the reason they are using the backup system - not the reason they built the backup system in the first place.
> A good metric is the difference in value between the precursor and the final product;
I agree, that’s a useful metric, especially in this case. But it’s also not perfect. E.g. it’s easy to have a >50% “made in USA” product if all the parts are made in china but the last assembly step takes time. Labour in the US is more expensive, so 5-10min of clicking parts together can easily cost more than the parts themselves. You could increase the capacity of that type of manufacturing indefinitely without ever gaining any real independence.
That is actually something of a natural phenomenon (see [0] it is a large topic). Historically when a centre of excellence forms it tends to be a tight geographical region learning how to do work well.
Government policy should be cluster-friendly but as long as policy doesn't get in the way it happens naturally. The incentives on businesses are to form a cluster independently because the cluster in-group outcompetes businesses outside the cluster.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_geography
If the government plans to try free-market capitalism then I'm in favour of the plan.
"One example we use is the No.3 Memory of Lenin Tractor Repair Factory in Zhuhai, which already in 1973 had started repairing tractors outside the plan. It would take tractors that needed to be repaired from other units, repair them on the side of the plan, and then get payment in kind. That payment in kind was then either bartered further within Guangdong, or smuggled downriver to Hong Kong. By 1973 this unit had a Hong Kong bank account. If this had been discovered at the central level, these people would have been shot."
Turning Shenzhen from an off-limits border area into a special economic zone made it easy for those businesses to go legit and grow, but they were already waiting in the shadows to seize that opportunity.
There are a few more SEZs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_economic_zones_of_Chin... but none did as well as Shenzhen, probably because of location factors.
Most of China development is sui generis and not replicable elsewhere.
I lived there, Mister Confidently-Incorrect!
It sounds like you're saw Singapore Fun Facts once, and in your mind it permanently excluded any other place from having similar features.
* Like I said, Hong Kong does have a significant sovereign wealth fund that ranks in the top 10. [0]. It doesn't stop mattering just because Singapore runs a bigger one.
* Here's a article from 2021 with a nice stacked-graph showing 45% public housing [1], close to the half I mentioned.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_wealth_fund
[1] https://www.chinadailyhk.com/hk/article/249172
It's too easy to get tied up in political labels, when any hybrid of public and private support for those helps growth. None of political ideas has an exclusive lock on providing the factors. At this point, I really don't think any political system guarantees the development outcomes, there are examples of all labels which fail one to all of those progress factors.
Govt do work as long as beneficiaries are good friends - tatas and adani for example. I cautiously optimistic
Europe will keep making manufacturing equipment, but leave the actual production to those who have the grid capacity and capital.
We will keep working on philosophy, theory and arts. Let the rest of the world get their hands dirty building things.
EU countries went from killing each other in two of the most deadly wars to having a union in 30 years.
I wish that the EU did the same as China did years ago, and that is to block any non-EU tech company from entering the market. We could have had the Google/Meta equivalent years ago.
Which wouldn't do Europe a lot of good at this point. EU needs a TSMC and an Anthropic/OpenAI.
Was that the halcyon period where they were too broken to fight back and got the continent split between the Americans and the Communists? Or the modern period where it turns out the security situation in Europe was so totally mishandled that we ended up with the Ukraine war?
The spectre of nukes getting used isn't dropping over time and this sort of grinding destructive war is probably raising the risk of a big conflagration. Everyone seems to be rearming.
What do you mean by this? Ukraine is not part of the EU.
The project has not scored well on matters of war and peace. And there is still a far too likely possibility here that after re-arming and in an era of war the Europeans fall back to their old tricks and descend into a state of war against each other again, given that the adults keeping them peaceful seem to have left the building.
You're going to have to really spell it out for us how Russia invading Ukraine is the EU's fault.
The thing that produces competitive industries is requiring them to compete globally. That's how Chinese cars got good (Tesla joint venture -> independent Chinese Tesla -> competitive domestic companies).
The three main reasons why the EU struggles to produce strong text companies are, IMO:
1. EU laws and regulations are very burdensome and cover everything from employees to packaging waste.
2. There is not enough capital that gets invested in EU tech companies to pay high tech salaries, again largely driven by more restrictive financial rules.
The result of these two is that European engineers tend to leave for the US, and European companies struggle to grow to American size.
Around 70% of American billionaires made their money themselves, while in the EU a similar share inherited it. Despite all the talk about social mobility in Europe being better than in the US, the truth is that the ultrawealthy in Europe have created a regulatory environment which makes it nearly impossible for real competition to exist.
The top 100 wealthiest Austrian families own two thirds of the country's wealth <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36755835>, and none of the wealth came from tech companies. The same is likely true of Germany with one exception: SAP.
Put another way, the two wealthiest German-born tech people (except the founders of SAP) are Peter Thiel and Andy Bechtolsheim, both of whom earned their billions in the US.
Yes, It is not sufficient but I would argue it was necessary. In case of China it allowed them to have a set of domestic copycat companies like Baid, Alibaba and Tencent, that enabled high demand for local engineers to serve their needs and that allowed to have a large pool of competent domestic engineers which now can benefit other emerging sectors too. It keeps surprising how many top contributors to large OSS projects are from China.
Maybe in terms of valuation. In terms of tech itself, I would say they are pretty close, few years behind maybe with gap closing
I don't want the problems those kind of companies bring. The world would be better without Facebook and Instagram in particular.
Maybe, but it's also better to have our own alternatives for those than to rely in so many cases on US tech only
Turns out if it's more economically efficient to simply import skilled workers, or outsource, then that's what will happen. Breeding and educating your own citizens in a first world country is very expensive. So you don't do it.
The only reason not to do this is national preference. Economically it makes sense, on a national level it makes sense, individually it's genocide.
It's petty and anti-nationalist to demand that your nation destroy it's own economy to fit your arbitrary political mold.
No, you don't need to accept migrants. You need money. You can get money in many many ways.
The best way for this to happen for the general prosperity of citizens is for the state to enrich themselves from the work of others, non citizens, and give that money to citizens. This is what Norway has done through it's sovereign wealth fund.
If you do not want to defend Europe's front lines with teenage conscripts and geriatric riflemen, you need a way to bring warm bodies into the fold. Refusing lawful immigration will undermine domestic security, doom the elderly and ruin pension funds for future retirees. No sovereign wealth fund is worth losing your sovereignty over.
I told you what the requirement was. Money. You have simply arbitrarily decided instead it's just people for no reason at all. As though magically people will spawn resources from their finger tips. According to you the richest countries in the world must be the most populous.
Obviously this is idiotic to even a cursory examination.
The next assumption you've made is that birth rate is completely random, a roll of the dice, an unchangeable fact of the universe. The reality is of course it's a result of policy and economics. This can be solved extremely easily.
Europe's troop deficit is just as immediate and pressing as the economic and policy problems. It would be nice if we could ignore it, but you can only expand your domestic middle class if you don't condemn them to the conscription lines first.
No. What I said is just a fact. There's no assumption, the requirement is a fact. You need money to pay for goods and services for the people no longer working.
There's no assumption there? What's the assumption, that goods and services need to be paid for?
So stop bringing up migrants for no reason at all. The actual issue is money, and there are many ways to obtain money.
The nonsense about troops is of course ridiculous. Just a fantastical statement divorced from reality. Who is this enemy Europe is facing that will require a ww1 style meat grinder of 10s of millions of troops, which of course took place when the european population was half the size.
No, you don't have to.
Are you enlisted? Do you want to be? Europe needed to figure out it's defense plan yesterday, not in 20 years. If Europe won't ally with migrants, then maintaining European sovereignty is nearly impossible.
You can do it even today. But you can't bring back manufacturing from China. You gave them your techology and the market.
I guess you mean EEC in 1958, because EU was officially formed in 1993. And normally people would count the period of the two World War and starting to count by the end of it. Either way it is a lot more than 30 years.
if the US or China had disappeared tomorrow, it would affect the rest of the world. what does an average person outside of Europe own that was made in Europe or couldn't be made in China instead? even ASML, its crown jewel, is built upon American tech and would be rebuilt in the US within a decade if there was necessity to do so.
I'm from the EU and glad to be a part of it. I just wish it was easier to do multi-national projects (I think anything aerospace or military related shows how little the countries want to collaborate) or even just tackle large projects and undertakings better.
Hell, in regards to chips I'd be happy with at least 2020 level performance chips for servers, desktops and laptops, even ARM ones. Okay maybe that is aiming too high cause my current Ryzen 7 5800X is from 2020 and so is my M1 MacBook Air and I don't see the need to upgrade, even 2016 would be good enough. Just more domestic production, CPUs, GPUs, memory, storage, everything else.