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Re:The End of AI Frontiers by AnotherGoodName on Saturday November 07, 2026 @01:41PM (#50406862)
This is true in every large company right now.

The transformer based approach is seen as a highway to race down in terms of training and building better models with minimal organizational distractions allowed while every company puts its foot down on this highway. Exploratory research into other AI methods is highly discouraged for now and organizations are encouraging transformer based scale out and iteration as a top priority.

As an example Meta literally fired it's previously head of AI who held views that transformers won't scale. He wanted to veer off the highway and heavily fund exploratory new types of models. They got someone willing to scale the current method out. Essentially the messaging it "Foot down, there's a straight highway ahead don't divert".

I have the view this makes sense too. Current top models are mere (mere in big datacenter terms) trillions of parameters right now. We definitely haven't hit the ceiling and everyone's noticing "Hey this Opus 5.5 with the increased parameters seems much better than the last one". Well that's a trillion parameter model. We'll soon start hitting 10's of trillions and 100's of trillions of parameter models. Unless there's a ceiling which nobody expects they should keep scaling just as they have been. I really do agree that it'd be insane to veer off this highway with exploratory research at this particular point in time. Foot down, get to 10 trillion parameters, see if the scaling holds, if so off to 100 trillion parameters. If the scaling continues to hold we'll be asking the AI to do the exploratory research for us soon enough.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by redox99 on Saturday November 07, 2026 @01:47PM (#50406906)
> As an example Meta literally fired it's previously head of AI who held views that transformers won't scale. He wanted to veer off the highway and heavily fund exploratory new types of models.

Almost all statements Yann LeCun made back then (LLMs won't be able to do this or that) turned out to be wrong. They were right to fire him.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by wtetzner on Saturday November 07, 2026 @01:55PM (#50406976)
Even if he was wrong about those statements, exploring other types of models isn't necessarily a bad thing. Especially if we can find ones that perform well with less demanding hardware requirements.
[dead]
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by esseph on Saturday November 07, 2026 @02:18PM (#50407180)
[delayed]
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by shadowpho on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:05PM (#50407556)
Ok yeah but it’s not a certain bet. Resources are limited and you gotta allocate them efficiently.

10% chance to be market leader doesn’t sound as good as 60% second place to them for example

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by esseph on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:18PM (#50407664)
[delayed]
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by siva7 on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:18PM (#50407668)
The job of the CEO is to assess the research risk correctly. Zuck made the right bet here to replace him.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by hvb2 on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:52PM (#50407936)
The guy that named his company after his own diversion?

It's his call for sure, but rather funny as an argument.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by hikarudo on Saturday November 07, 2026 @04:30PM (#50408251)
The fact that someone made a mistake before doesn't mean that they will always make wrong calls.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by ImPostingOnHN on Saturday November 07, 2026 @06:05PM (#50408903)
not as a matter of certainty, but it certainly increases the bayesian prior probability of their calls being wrong
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by thelastgallon on Saturday November 07, 2026 @04:45PM (#50408333)
Maybe he is keeping the name as a constant reminder of the mistaken. Like Berkshire Hathaway: Warren Buffett says Berkshire Hathaway is the “dumbest” stock he ever bought. https://www.cnbc.com/2010/10/18/warren-buffett-buying-berksh...
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by robotresearcher on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:26PM (#50407739)
They can buy LeCun’s new thing if it works out.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by geertj on Saturday November 07, 2026 @06:06PM (#50408913)
> It's not a distraction if the research pans out

It is because even if it would pan out, it would mean temporarily losing AI leadership, reducing stock price, losing the ability to hire talent, and by virtue of that losing the opportunity permanently.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by thatsabadlook on Saturday November 07, 2026 @02:54PM (#50407479)
The mainstream is wrong and in a lot of ways hazardous. He had every right to say he wasn't willing to sign is name on the wrong technology when he new better. When you hire smart people you listen to them. Elsewise you get what you deserve.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by frozenseven on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:52PM (#50407941)
>when he new better

He was against LLMs, reinforcement learning, etc. Claiming that those are a dead-end. He was wrong. His own "JEPA" ideas have basically gone nowhere. Meta was right in moving on without him.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by ForHackernews on Saturday November 07, 2026 @05:23PM (#50408622)
I'm not sure he was wrong. No one has solved the fundamental problem with LLMs, which is that they cannot be trusted.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by frozenseven on Saturday November 07, 2026 @06:42PM (#50409120)
Ok, so we're talking about applying connectionist systems/models to the messiness of the real world. And "trust" isn't an on-off switch. The goal is to build systems that are smarter and more general. It's a process. I don't think even Yann LeCun has made any strong claims beyond that. He just thinks that his way of doing deep learning is better.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by jack_pp on Saturday November 07, 2026 @11:34PM (#50410438)
Most humans can not be trusted either, that's why you have processes in place to test and review work
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by johnnyanmac on Sunday November 08, 2026 @02:14AM (#50411099)
[delayed]
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by gamblor956 on Saturday November 07, 2026 @07:31PM (#50409419)
LeCun wasn't wrong. He simply had higher standards for results and accountability that LLMs are, by design, incapable of reaching.

Zuckerberg wanted to placate his shareholders with a shiny new thing now.

would've stopped Meta from delivering a polished product like Muse sooner.

Muse is not polished, unless usability and programming standards have fallen so far in the LLM vibe coding era that a pre-alpha state is now considered polished.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by solyin on Saturday November 07, 2026 @08:17PM (#50409653)
Compared to the user buying a Mac mini and following a tutorial off Twitter to install some random shit they found online?

Muse is imperfect, as is all software, but calling it pre-alpha is a bit much.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by teruakohatu on Saturday November 07, 2026 @09:25PM (#50409939)
You will find brilliant scientists in every discipline who are not the least bit interested in a particular branch of research because they/their lab didn’t invent it. That’s fine for public research but not helpful private research.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by dragonwriter on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:26PM (#50407742)
Its not a bad thing, but exploratory research as opposed to reaearch that finetunes along a path already paved by exploratory research is something that doesn’t usually happen much in for-profit product-oriented firms when there is such a path available; it happens in academia and corporate labs pick it up once it reaches the point where the basics show commercial promise. CS is a little bit of an exception because the capital cost of basic research isn’t, proportionally, as high, and because the promise-to-product path is often short enough that having done the basic work in house can be a meaningful advantage in getting to market first (though, see Google on much of modern AI for a counterexample).

But even in computing, when there is a promising way forward that the basic reaearch has been done on, its hard to justify side quests.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by pyrale on Saturday November 07, 2026 @04:21PM (#50408178)
> CS is a little bit of an exception because the capital cost of basic research isn’t, proportionally, as high, and because the promise-to-product path is often short enough that having done the basic work in house can be a meaningful advantage in getting to market first (though, see Google on much of modern AI for a counterexample)

...And because they have monopoly money. Basically, research labs are usually vanity spending for corporations with too much money. Xerox parc was funded by a monopoly. Bell labs was funded by a monopoly. Google funds its moonshots with its monopoly.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by robotresearcher on Saturday November 07, 2026 @06:23PM (#50409008)
Bell and Xerox became powerful because they invented game-changing technologies. They were fundamentally research-based organizations from the start.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by bigfatkitten on Saturday November 07, 2026 @04:23PM (#50408185)
Those exploratory "side quests" in industry are how we got the transistor, the liquid crystal display, Shannon's information theory, the laser and practical photovoltaic cells, among many other foundational technologies upon which we rely today.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by WalterBright on Saturday November 07, 2026 @05:08PM (#50408520)
Jet engines, too.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by publlus_enigma on Saturday November 07, 2026 @07:43PM (#50409469)
Blue LEDs too, which have transformed lighting and displays.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by catlifeonmars on Saturday November 07, 2026 @08:07PM (#50409604)
[delayed]
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by bitwize on Saturday November 07, 2026 @08:40PM (#50409756)
And then they made back 200x the operating expenses of the lab (Xerox PARC) they came from over its entire lifetime.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by RetroTechie on Saturday November 07, 2026 @04:47PM (#50408346)
> and corporate labs pick it up once it reaches the point where the basics show commercial promise.

How does that work when the research team moved elsewhere? Re-hire talent? That takes time - the 1 thing you don't have in a fast-moving field like AI. Post sums it up nicely:

"Do the math—how much is it worth to halve training and inference cost given that the industry has investments approaching a trillion dollars?"

How much is these researchers' salaries, compared to what MSFT spends on compute? Chances are it's peanuts in comparison.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by lovich on Saturday November 07, 2026 @08:20PM (#50409661)
Yes but you forget that spending on compute is spending on machines that the company owns while spending on researchers is spending on other apes that trigger the social hierarchies of executives brains and who have the dreaded key word of “rights”

Companies will try to ruthlessly rid themselves of labor as long as those members of labor have agency and rights.

If someone disagrees they can convince me by explaining why a company wouldn’t choose to spend X on a machine they wholly own vs X on an employee they don’t.

There’s some room for argument that employees can do more than machines can but in the current AI zeitgeist arguing that we have machines with equivalent to human intelligence I don’t see how you wouldn’t see this coming if you believed the zeitgeist.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by RetroTechie on Sunday November 08, 2026 @08:29AM (#50413162)
If compute:people were roughly equal spend, I'd agree with that thinking. But we all know AI's 100s of billions $$ spend is on datacenters+GPUs, not people.

In a way this suggests that MS doesn't aim to be a leader in AI <the core tech>. Only in its applications + related services (read: profit to be had there).

Nothing wrong with that btw. But understandable that fundamental researchers then pack up & leave.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by vlovich123 on Saturday November 07, 2026 @06:04PM (#50408901)
Remind me again where the transformer comes from?
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by grumbelbart on Sunday November 08, 2026 @02:19AM (#50411120)
Or residual networks / connections.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by eli_gottlieb on Saturday November 07, 2026 @07:39PM (#50409452)
> it happens in academia and corporate labs pick it up once it reaches the point where the basics show commercial promise.

Ah, well, good thing we've almost entirely defunded academic science.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by dfdydx on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:48PM (#50407909)
It’s a simple exploration/exploitation trade off. Always explore, never exploit is probably not the optimal strategy every time.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by bmitc on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:52PM (#50407943)
It seems to me that everyone is in "always exploit" mode.

Seems weird when it's become apparent that LLMs aren't really special sauce.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by gscott on Saturday November 07, 2026 @04:13PM (#50408121)
[delayed]
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by AnotherGoodName on Saturday November 07, 2026 @01:55PM (#50406978)
Absolutely agree fwiw. Scale out over LeCunns desired exploratory research was absolutely the right call. Called out because it seems like MS is making a similar call.

The author states "I consider the scaling-only focus to be both misdirected and not fun.". I get the point but also totally get the focus on scale out for now.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by benatkin on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:02PM (#50407539)
I'm becoming more sympathetic to LeCun's views, but being able to train something that acts the tiniest bit like those who made the training data (authors, professors, researchers, etc) is an absolute juggernaut and will be for some time.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by ion_trapper on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:33PM (#50407797)
I empathize with LeCunn but he is a prime example of why scientists often make poor leaders. It’s too tempting to always do the cool and interesting thing instead of drilling down on the boring but reliable thing that actually creates value. There is of course a place for this kind of eternal curiosity and I hope he’s found it, but hyper-competitive industry may not be it.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by srean on Saturday November 07, 2026 @05:00PM (#50408444)
They have different jobs.

For a corporation it is to make money. For a researcher it is to explore and illuminate. That exploration and illumination often leads to a landfall of new wealth generation is a happy accident that ensures that the monies are going to bet some of their capital in them, at least the wise ones.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by GIFtheory on Saturday November 07, 2026 @06:50PM (#50409161)
Ironically, Yann is kind of known in academic circles for being the guy working on boring, unsexy stuff (deep learning) when all the other academics were doing sexy cutting edge SVMs and stuff. That’s probably why he got the Meta job in the first place.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by johnnyanmac on Sunday November 08, 2026 @02:22AM (#50411130)
[delayed]
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by whatthejesus on Saturday November 07, 2026 @02:39PM (#50407358)
Umm no. There’s the old factory way to build things like Ford model T; and then there’s the f*king Toyota method!

Which is superior, the big f*king monstrosity or the elegant on-demand, small batches, reduce waste?

Meta will go in the shitter and Deepseek will make the small batches.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by dragonwriter on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:35PM (#50407813)
TPS (and Lean, which it played a role in inspiring) is largely about finding what works empirically and ruthlesslessly optimizing around it.

It does (Lean at least) incorporate controlled experimentation, but tightly controlled with a both a laser focus on what the goal is and tight resource constraints. And Lean (at least several writers on Lean) favors taking multiple paths with a a quick and low risk and a longer-payoff, higher-risk, higher reward path for some efforts—one source used the US Navy’s two-path approach to SLBMs with Polaris and Poseidon as a model for this—but that's different than “maybe there is something down this path” basic research, which is outside of the concern a production model like TPS/Lean and often completely outside the model of a product-oriented firm; basic research is something firms consume and incorporate more than generate, because until the basics have been proven out, the rationally perceived chance of any particular avenue paying off is near zero for any firm.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by 0xbadcafebee on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:44PM (#50407875)
[delayed]
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by whatthejesus on Saturday November 07, 2026 @02:39PM (#50407365)
Which is superior, the big f*king monstrosity or the elegant on-demand, small batches, reduce waste?

Meta will go in the shitter and Deepseek will make the small batches.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by 0xbadcafebee on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:42PM (#50407856)
[delayed]
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by airstrike on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:52PM (#50407940)
[delayed]
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by Animats on Saturday November 07, 2026 @04:00PM (#50408007)
Historically, that happens now and then. Examples include color television cameras and fluorescent lamp ballasts.

RCA developed the first good color TV cameras. They were monsters. Originally, electronic TV (as opposed to mechanical scanning) used Zworykin's iconoscope. This needed huge amounts of light. It didn't have a photo-multiplier stage to boost sensitivity, but it did accumulate charge from light over the whole frame time. There was an alternative approach, Farnsworth's image dissector, which also needed huge amounts of light. It had a photo-multiplier stage but only the light from the dot currently being scanned by the scanning beam mattered.

So RCA threw money at the problem. They developed the image orthicon camera tube. It combined the advantages of both approaches, integration over a full frame and a photo-multiplier stage. It was insanely expensive, costing thousands of dollars in the 1950s. It needed about twenty different voltages and multiple independent power supplies. It worked reasonably well.

Then came color. That took three image orthicons (RGB) inside a box the size of a small refrigerator, along with optics to split the incoming image into three colors. Plus a rack of analog electronics per camera, connected through a large cable. Plus an alignment problem from hell, with a huge number of adjustment knobs.[1]

Scaling worked! From the 1950s to the 1970s, color TV broadcasting was powered by those monsters.

Now, independent of this, other people were working on other approaches. Vidicons, silicon detectors inside camera tubes, and finally fully solid state image sensors. Eventually, in 1983, after thirty years of image orthicon monsters, RCA produced a usable solid state camera. Today, a cell phone camera costs about US$10 in bulk, and it's far better than the monsters.

It took thirty years of low-priority development to get past the giant image orthicon cameras.

Electronic fluorescent lamp ballasts had a different problem. That was a suppressed invention. The magnetic ballast industry was dominated by Magnetek. Someone invented a solid state replacement, which was smaller and cheaper, and licensed their patent to Magnetek for royalties. Magnetek just sat on it, not wanting to gut their core market. The inventor hired Townsend, Townsend and Crew in Palo Alto and sued. (Read this in the law firm's brag book in their office.) Eventually, the inventor got a hundred million or so, solid state ballasts went into production, and Magnetek seems to be gone. (The company called Magnetek today, which makes crane controls, is an offshoot of a Litton unit, and seems to be unrelated.)

There are also parallels from the steam locomotive industry, the Baldwin Locomotive Works being the best known. Baldwin actually built the first Diesel locomotive. They made a few half-hearted tries at Diesels over several decades, then gave up and went back to steam. Baldwin ceased all locomotive production in 1956. The corporation lingered on for a while, not doing much.

[1] https://www.tvcameramuseum.org/rca/tk40a/pix/rcatk40aart.pdf

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by leoc on Saturday November 07, 2026 @05:14PM (#50408555)
(So it must be those Orthicon cameras which cause the distinctive weirdnesses of early TV images like the reflections from highly-polished surfaces (such as the bells of brass instruments and saxophones) which gleam black?)
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by Tade0 on Saturday November 07, 2026 @05:31PM (#50408661)
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by leoc on Saturday November 07, 2026 @05:36PM (#50408700)
(Thanks!)
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by leoc on Saturday November 07, 2026 @05:54PM (#50408811)
For as long as the big companies are committed to focusing on scaling LLMs it does seem reasonable that they don't want their overall efforts led by people like LeCun or Hassabis who don't particularly want to scale LLMs. But it does feel as if there's something a bit extra about many LLM maxis' active hostility to deviationists.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by geertj on Saturday November 07, 2026 @06:02PM (#50408885)
I think Hassabis’ position is far more nuanced than LeCun’s. From what I can see, LeCun believes LLMs are a dead end for AGI while Hassabis position seems to be that some new technique is needed combined with LLMs.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by nnurmanov on Saturday November 07, 2026 @11:05PM (#50410325)
I am not sure if LLMs will stay eventually, but I am totally sure that they will be used to develop new types of models
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by mycall on Sunday November 08, 2026 @08:52AM (#50413392)
JEPA's method isn't dead, non-generative self-supervised learning that predicts abstract representations (embeddings) of missing information. It is understanding latent structures rather than creating content.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by dcrazy on Saturday November 07, 2026 @06:19PM (#50408983)
The LA Times has an article on the Magnetek verdict: https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1990-01-10-fi-282-st...
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by Animats on Saturday November 07, 2026 @06:53PM (#50409177)
Nice, it got a press mention, with a quote from Crew, one of the law firm's partners.

Suppressed inventions are very rare, but that's one of them.

One of the few others is Airadar, from 1973.[1] Not "AI", "air radar". This was a phased-array radar for small aircraft. Way ahead of its time. So far ahead that the USAF was upset about it being available commercial before it was in use by the military.

[1] https://books.google.com/books?id=NWzlTqj0gQ4C&pg=PA64&lr=&r...

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by alexgoodhart on Saturday November 07, 2026 @06:58PM (#50409213)
Why are you Claude
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by Loquebantur on Saturday November 07, 2026 @09:15PM (#50409901)
Suppressed inventions aren't "very rare" per se. You simply don't hear about those that aren't being rescinded while the inventor is still alive.

According to official data from the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), there were 6,653 active secrecy orders in effect at the end of fiscal year 2026. Roughly 100 to 350 new secrecy orders are added every year. Many remain locked away for decades or more.

If the U.S. government puts a secrecy order on a patent application against the inventor's will, they are legally forbidden from talking about it. The inventor cannot talk about how it works, publish research on it, sell it, or market it. They cannot even discuss the exact classified details with a regular lawyer unless that attorney has the proper security clearance.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by sjdh76 on Saturday November 07, 2026 @08:21PM (#50409672)
Its anywhere you have finite resources, time, people, knowledge etc and have to take a call on how to split them - Explore-Exploit Tradeoff.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by mschuster91 on Saturday November 07, 2026 @04:07PM (#50408072)
It's Meta, lol. They wasted 80 billion $ on Zuck's fever dream called Metaverse.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by WalterBright on Saturday November 07, 2026 @05:14PM (#50408560)
Musk initially started his rocket company by going to Russia and trying to buy Russian rockets. The Russians spat on his shoe.

The rest is history.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by mschuster91 on Saturday November 07, 2026 @06:01PM (#50408875)
That at least was a reasonable idea. The Russians had a lot of old Soviet era ICBMs they had no need for anymore (plus, IIRC an agreement with the US to disassemble them), so using their engines as a cheap powerplant until SpaceX nailed reusability made sense.

That failed and SpaceX was then forced to develop its own brand new engines.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by Andrew_nenakhov on Saturday November 07, 2026 @05:19PM (#50408598)
It's amusing that their grand dream was basically a clone of Roblox, just with better VR tech and far more advanced graphics. But thing is, kids playing Roblox absolutely do not care about graphics.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by outrun86 on Saturday November 07, 2026 @08:28PM (#50409710)
Well, don’t care about graphics yet. Unclear what will happen once those gamers hit 20, 30 years old.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by jeremyjh on Saturday November 07, 2026 @05:19PM (#50408597)
They surprised almost everyone, but he remained skeptical well after it was clear we could not put boundaries on the capabilities gained from scaling, and also from new RL techniques. Still, I do not think he is wrong about world models and continuous learning being fundamental to AGI, though the latter issue he was himself dismissive of until relatively recently.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by soon_to_be_sb on Saturday November 07, 2026 @06:14PM (#50408958)
>LLMs won't be able to do this or that) turned out to be wrong

Where can I read more about this? I have seen people make this claim for a while, and when I looked deep, it used to turn out to be wrong.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by jackb4040 on Saturday November 07, 2026 @07:43PM (#50409473)
You can't. It's AI booster propaganda. Yann LeCun obviously understands transformers better than random anons on this venture capital fan forum. This means he also understands their limitations, which is too complex for people who just want their preferred billionaire to win.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by nonethewiser on Saturday November 07, 2026 @10:07PM (#50410097)
> "I take an object, I put it on the table, and I push the table... there's no text in the world, I believe, that explains this... your GPT-5000, or whatever it is, it's never gonna learn about this."

Lex fridman podcast 2022

ChatGPT answers this just fine.

He also said they will be “ Writing aids, not much more" and they “Can't plan.”

No one said he knows nothing about building AI. He was just clearly wrong about LLM capabilities.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by soon_to_be_sb on Sunday November 08, 2026 @04:42AM (#50411754)
>> "I take an object, I put it on the table, and I push the table... there's no text in the world, I believe, that explains this... your GPT-5000, or whatever it is, it's never gonna learn about this."

As far as I know, those things are still true. Unless there is text in the training material that the text in the prompt can map to, or there is text in training material that describe how to map text in the prompt to text in the training material, LLMs cannot process the prompt.

So may be he is wrong about what could be in the training material. But I don't think he is wrong in the fundamental..

This is sort of what I mention in my original comment. These claims, when pushed, turns out not to hold water...

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by ViscountPenguin on Saturday November 07, 2026 @10:24PM (#50410167)
Yann is smart but obviously not omniscient, I don't think it does the ML community a service to pretend that elders are never incorrect (or even badly incorrect). This type of things is how we got the cult around Schmidhubering.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by tensor on Saturday November 07, 2026 @06:30PM (#50409046)
Odd. As u see it he was one of the few right about everything. This is also taking his comments about transformers scaling out of context. He specifically said they won’t lead to human level ai and they haven’t, despite exhausting the training data.

AGI will require architecture changes not simply more data.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by mr_roboto on Saturday November 07, 2026 @07:59PM (#50409565)
I'm quite confused by what you mean human level AI here. Maybe we haven't hit Einstein but we blew past the average person a long time ago.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by haltingproblem on Saturday November 07, 2026 @08:50PM (#50409805)
It is very jagged and some people don't consider that human level AGI - it can solve Maths at the genius level just like Deep Blue could play chess at the grandmaster level. At this point it is simply an opinion and I can see the other side too.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by Exoristos on Saturday November 07, 2026 @09:02PM (#50409853)
[delayed]
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by procone on Saturday November 07, 2026 @09:07PM (#50409881)
Sorry, but what? We haven't done anything beyond strapping a large language model to a "harness".

At no point do I ever confuse a human being with a Claude session.

Even if I'm somehow fooled or confused for a minute, the context window / hallucinations / Claudeish will immediately give it away.

Sure, we passed the turing test for chatbots but we are very far away from AGI.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by paganel on Sunday November 08, 2026 @02:58AM (#50411275)
> but we blew past the average person a long time ago.

We did?

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by godelski on Sunday November 08, 2026 @01:05AM (#50410834)

  > This is also taking his comments about transformers scaling out of context
There have been significant improvements in architectural changes, but since "pre-training" isn't being openly published people just lazily attribute it to "scale". Scale of what? Scale

  > AGI will require architecture changes not simply more data.
As Sutton claimed, all along[0]

[0] He speaks about Bitter Lesson directly at 9:57 but the earlier part gives better context: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21EYKqUsPfg

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by Nevermark on Saturday November 07, 2026 @06:45PM (#50409133)
Exactly.

Yann LeCun has the syndrome where someone who sees the value of B (non-text modalities, i.e. physical reality) cannot stop themselves from constantly critiquing A (LLMs), even though clearly A has its own advantages.

I think he is a smart guy. But he constantly deploys the crackpot's PR playbook.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by killerstorm on Saturday November 07, 2026 @09:21PM (#50409922)
It's not so much they _turned_ wrong, they were obviously wrong at the time he made statements, or shortly after. He is just extremely biased against transformers, and it's easy to see why - transformers are already invented, and as a scientist he wants to invent something new.

More specifically:

* he said that autoregressive transformer is fundamentally flawed: if it makes one error, all further generated tokens make no sense; that's, obviously, bullshit: there are many ways to implement backtracking, and there are many papers demonstrating backtracking at a time he did that lecture. And, of course, it just doesn't matter - reasoning model can just write "Oh, that's wrong. Let's try a different thing". - it's just not derailed by one mistake.

* he said that GPT-1000 can't possible have understanding of physical world, when GPT-4 already existing at that time could solve a problem he described.

So it's not like he was bad at predicting things, he's intellectually dishonest.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by redox99 on Sunday November 08, 2026 @03:34AM (#50411446)
Yeah that slide of him "proving" autoregressive is flawed was really the nail in the coffin. I stopped listening to him after that.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by ViktorRay on Saturday November 07, 2026 @10:47PM (#50410251)
Almost all statements Yann LeCun made back then (LLMs won't be able to do this or that) turned out to be wrong. They were right to fire him.

The idea that someone should be fired just because they were wrong seems to be something that would cause issues if one wanted to think long term.

This approach will make people afraid of being wrong. It will lead them to avoid challenging dogmatic assumptions in large organizations and inevitably lead to group think.

People really shouldn’t be punished for saying wrong things. Long term it’s better for a company if they aren’t punished for that. Helps to let people freely criticize dogmas or propose new ones.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by jack_pp on Saturday November 07, 2026 @11:42PM (#50410469)
If what you say is true then they would have abandoned LLMs. You're saying that it would have benefited them?
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by HDThoreaun on Sunday November 08, 2026 @01:19AM (#50410883)
Depends on your role. If youre in charge of research in a hundred billion dollar org you should absolutely be fired if you devote your org to pie in the sky research instead of creating tangible value. If your job is just doing the research obviously you shouldnt be punished if your experiments dont work. Yann was fired because his main job was balancing product development with research and he didnt do that.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by incrudible on Sunday November 08, 2026 @04:40AM (#50411745)
None of these second-rate LLMs are creating tangible value. Nobody has made any money developing LLMs yet, and when the capex runway ends, the second-rate models won't see much (if any) use at all, compute is too precious for that.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by overfeed on Saturday November 07, 2026 @11:18PM (#50410380)
> Almost all statements Yann LeCun made back then (LLMs won't be able to do this or that) turned out to be wrong

You're being uncharitable. He would have been right if Chain of Thought hadn't been pulled out of a hat, and no one saw it coming.

At this moment no one can know if there will be a future step-change on LLMs similar to reasoning, and conversely, no one can be absolutely sure there won't be - so it shouldn't be a firable offense because it's not obvious; even though it looks like it in hindsight.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by redox99 on Sunday November 08, 2026 @03:27AM (#50411409)
CoT wasn't pulled out of a hat. It was obvious to any researcher that it was needed. It just took some time and stronger base models and longer context to actually be implemented. People were already doing "CoT" by telling models to think step by step before answering, primitive harnesses and similar tricks.

Even a nobody like me was playing with a sort of CoT with llama finetunes before o1 came out.

Only this year I'd say we picked all the low hanging fruit that has been obvious for a while that was needed.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by empiricus on Sunday November 08, 2026 @04:58AM (#50411833)
Hi, I am curious, what do you think are the parts that are obvious but still work in progress? Maybe continuous multimodal input?
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by redox99 on Sunday November 08, 2026 @07:13AM (#50412585)
I'm not fully up to date on AI research anymore, however I think the obvious stuff has already been implemented, but there's still a lot of room for improvement and scaling for these current approaches.

For verifiable tasks like coding and math, you can keep going, doing more and more RL. You have the AI generate hard problems, then try to solve them and reward correct solutions. We basically have RSI for verifiable tasks, we just need to keep the wheel turning.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by throw8383993 on Sunday November 08, 2026 @07:36AM (#50412727)
I would take it from other angle.

Meta AI is actually frontier lab now with LLMs. Muse Wonderfull is usable with multi agent orchestration (where other labs struggle).

I do not think that would happen with pure research and without single focus!

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by astrange on Sunday November 08, 2026 @08:38AM (#50413258)
Yann LeCun was not the "head of AI", he just ran a different research group.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by srean on Saturday November 07, 2026 @01:47PM (#50406907)
When a company pays billions to OpenAI, any activity that does not do glorious dance in praise and support of the investment is an act of disloyalty.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by hn_throwaway_99 on Saturday November 07, 2026 @02:30PM (#50407271)
> If the scaling continues to hold we'll be asking the AI to do the exploratory research for us soon enough.

Already happening: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50397994

Obviously we'll see how it pans out, but other approaches feel a bit like trying to ignore the bitter lesson.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by dekhn on Saturday November 07, 2026 @02:38PM (#50407349)
It's worth it to keep exploiting transformers while doing just a bit of exploration of alternatives because they work so well. Heck, just exploiting transformers more will accelerate exploration of alternatives...
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by slipnslider on Saturday November 07, 2026 @02:40PM (#50407373)
This is a dumb question since I know very little about LLMs and transformers but I keep hearing similar things such as "more GPUs/parameters/computer" leads to a predictable scaling in inteligence.

Is that observed scaling part of some equation or law? Is there a limit to how far that scaling goes before a ceiling or diminishing returns hit? Or is it simply based on more GPUs/parameters/compute plus how much human knowledge is in existence and will scale predictably forever?

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by augment_me on Saturday November 07, 2026 @02:56PM (#50407490)
There are some neural scaling laws: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neural_scaling_law

And you can in practice often see a large network follow an expected training trajectory for loss/entropy.

In practice data is getting more sparse than compute, so you are usually overtraining using more tokens and being suboptimal.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by joe_the_user on Saturday November 07, 2026 @04:19PM (#50408165)
It should be noted that these laws aren't, well, laws; "a neural scaling law is an empirical scaling law that describes how neural network performance changes as key factors are scaled up or down.". Notice the word empirical here.

These empirical observations on quantities which aren't "intelligence" since no one has yet defined intelligence.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by pyrophane on Saturday November 07, 2026 @07:05PM (#50409260)
Another dumb question: can the model be smarter than the data?

I wonder about this a lot.

There are all these publications from OpenAI and Anthropic that are solving complex math & science problems.

Are they just "brute forcing" it? Able to try a lot more "known" or reasonable approaches given existing knowledge?

Or are they showing "emergent intelligence" and able to try genuinely new approaches that can't be expected from the knowledge in their dataset?

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by eli_gottlieb on Saturday November 07, 2026 @07:46PM (#50409489)
> Another dumb question: can the model be smarter than the data?

There's a mathematical sense in which it cannot be: the data-processing inequality (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_processing_inequality). The extent to which that sense is totally counterintuitive to how things normally work in ML nowadays has led to investigating different foundations for information theory: https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.03220.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by incrudible on Sunday November 08, 2026 @04:51AM (#50411805)
Data isn't "smart", it doesn't contain intelligence. I would argue that LLMs are functionally intelligent, they have learned to what functionally amounts to thinking by training on text (and images, in some cases). They are capable of performing experiments autonomously and make decisions based on out-of-distribution data. Besides (current) lack of online learning, they are limited by their biases and working memory - but so are humans, and I'd like to see a convincing argument on why these mathematical laws should not also apply to humans, which are arguably intelligent.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by augment_me on Saturday November 07, 2026 @08:26PM (#50409703)
"Smarter" is ill-defined.

Are you smart if you see that cognitive scientists had something figured out, connected it to something in your field of chemistry and made a breakthrough treatment for some disease?

Does any of our existing intelligence build on completely unknown information? You could argue that any new solution/emergent intelligence is an association of existing information in new ways.

It also brings us to what is brute forcing? Humans are brute forcing stuff most of the time. You will have 10 stupid thoughts for every good thought. 10 stupid ideas for every good idea. It's very rare, if not near impossible, that a non-mathematician with no prior knowledge, goes into a room on day 1 of deciding to think about a conjecture they don't know anything about, and solve it on the blackboard. They need to use their collect associations, formalize their axioms, think of first principles (known information), and associate it.

So to answer your question you need to answer:

1) What does "smarter" refer to? Is it accumulation of information about the universe? Is it solving tasks useful for the human in the world? Something else? Is it acting as an agent with it's own goals and interests in the universe? What if the goals are hard for humans to understand?

2) What does "genuinely new approaches" refer to? Is it fine to use math axioms to prove things? Does interpolation between two existing solutions count as new? At what granularity of concept does novelty happen (Does using two higher abstraction concepts, like combining some new, modern neural network architecture with a database count as a new thing), even if the underlying lower abstraction of information as storage, latency and compute is not novel?

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by sbierwagen on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:11PM (#50407608)
Yes, the Chinchilla scaling laws from 2022: https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.15556 More parameters directly and mechanically means less prediction error for each token.

(This moves the argument to "is being really good at predicting the next token the same as being intelligent?" which has happily diverted many minds for years now)

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by luke5441 on Saturday November 07, 2026 @04:14PM (#50408133)
From your link:

> for every doubling of model size the number of training tokens should also be doubled

Well, I don't think many claim that increasing the model size while also increasing the training tokens doesn't make sense.

The problem is how to get the training tokens...

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by stymaar on Saturday November 07, 2026 @04:29PM (#50408236)
Interestingly enough labs do train with 100s or even 1000s times more tokens than what's proposed by the paper as an optimal value.

And the answer to your question is basically just “synthetic data”.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by stymaar on Saturday November 07, 2026 @04:27PM (#50408221)
The Chinchilla paper is probably the poster child of “paper that aged like milk” in LLM field though. Everyone over the past 4 years have trained with several orders of magnitude more data than the Chinchilla optimal number.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by sroussey on Saturday November 07, 2026 @06:41PM (#50409114)
If you don’t know which data has the highest value, though more at it. Chinchilla is probably still true, but with that caveat. And it could be like advertising… you know a lot of it is worthless, but you don’t know which part.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by dfdydx on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:51PM (#50407931)
Your phrasing (_observed_ scaling _part of_ some equation) might indicate you assume / think there’s some theoretical equation that relate intelligence to those parameters and the we observe the data to confirm it. As far as I know, there isn’t - it’s purely empirical curve fitting. Train a model with different amount of compute / data / parameters, measure performance, fit curve.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by samuelknight on Saturday November 07, 2026 @05:06PM (#50408504)
'Scaling law' is the prediction that increasing the training data and model size will cause the result to be better. It's not a law, but it was the prediction that OpenAI staked their fledgling startup on to get to the ChatGPT moment.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by jgalt212 on Saturday November 07, 2026 @02:41PM (#50407389)
> Foot down, get to 10 trillion parameters, see if the scaling holds, if so off to 100 trillion parameters. If the scaling continues to hold we'll be asking the AI to do the exploratory research for us soon enough.

Where's the money coming for those 10X and 100X ventures?

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by mbgerring on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:55PM (#50407965)
From mass layoffs of tech company employees.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by jasomill on Saturday November 07, 2026 @07:00PM (#50409222)
There’s a good example of a model that won’t scale.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by liuliu on Saturday November 07, 2026 @02:54PM (#50407477)
100 trillion parameters doesn't make any sense if your dataset is ~30 trillion tokens. My uneducated guess is 1/10 compression ratio is good and that point to ~300 to ~1000 trillion tokens, which again, doesn't make any practical sense.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by sbierwagen on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:07PM (#50407581)
Depending on how you count, the human brain is between 100 trillion and 1 quadrillion parameters, which is one guess as to why we're so much more sample efficient at learning than LLMs are.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by Frost1x on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:34PM (#50407803)
Unless quantum effects do infact play a role in consciousness. It’s not clear they do by any means, but if it did that could shift the understanding of our own minds and consciousness drastically. Otherwise we are just a dense complex network we can reproduce with enough money.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by qlte on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:49PM (#50407919)
I don't think you even need to go to speculative quantum stuff. A single biological neuron in isolation is a surprisingly complex system that resembles a small artificial neural net more than an artificial neuron in many ways. On top of an entire feedback system from diffusion of neurotransmitters which doesn't cleanly map to ANNs.

Trying to estimate equivalent "parameter size" of the brain when we only superficially understand behavior of individual neurons let alone how intelligence emerges from the connectome seems too speculative to be a particularly useful metric.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by robotresearcher on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:39PM (#50407827)
How many tokens does your brain input a day?
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by mschuster91 on Saturday November 07, 2026 @04:09PM (#50408094)
One key difference between humans and (current) LLMs is that we can actually judge the material we learn from at the time we're learning it, contextualize it and discard garbage when we spot it.

LLMs need an awful lot of handholding all the time, meanwhile humans get pretty good at it on their own.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by jurgenburgen on Saturday November 07, 2026 @05:42PM (#50408733)
Synapses and LLM parameters are not equivalent.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by cite_please on Saturday November 07, 2026 @06:48PM (#50409150)
In Silicon Valley they are.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by slashdave on Saturday November 07, 2026 @05:34PM (#50408682)
The extra parameters are useful for optimization. Deep-learning relies on highly singular solutions.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by surgical_fire on Saturday November 07, 2026 @02:57PM (#50407499)
> Hey this Opus 5.5 with the increased parameters seems much better than the last one"

Is this true?

I barely notice any improvements ever since... 4.6? At least for software development.

Opus makes the same sort of mistakes and has the same sort of strengths ever since that point in my perception. My impressions is that increasing the number of parameters clearly has diminishing returns.

In fact, the best improvement I got from Claude was Haiku 5.5. Good cheap workhorse to implement plans.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by AnotherGoodName on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:17PM (#50407658)
Well 4.6 was released Feb this year.

As in your statement to me indicates that you clearly see the scaling working over longer timespans. You chose a relatively recent 2026 model as your baseline after all, not a 2025 model or earlier. You clearly see that the 2026 model is better than ones in the past.

Might i suggest that you perhaps just don't see the improvement as clearly when comparing iterations that are fairly close together? If you're not anecdotally seeing improvement between an early 2026 model and one from ~6 months later perhaps just give it another iteration? Personally i do see 5.5 as much better but i can understand not seeing a lot of difference to 4.6 since they literally aren't that far apart in releases.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by surgical_fire on Saturday November 07, 2026 @04:21PM (#50408173)
> Might i suggest that you perhaps just don't see the improvement as clearly when comparing iterations that are fairly close together?

No, you can't. Because you invalidate your argument by adding later:

> Personally i do see 5.5 as much better

It has to be one or the other.

Either each minor release Anthropic farts is a major improvement from what came before, or I don't see much difference because it has been very little time in between releases. Holding both arguments as true would require me to be excessively apologetic for a company that desires a 2T IPO.

And to be clear, I do think that there is an argument that not much time has passed since Opus 4.6 and Chat GPT 5.3 Codex days.

Part of this conundrum may be because the models reached a good enough point for software development. Maybe walking 80% of the way was easier than the final 20%. I am nowadays more excited about how cheap models can be useful for it (hence my positive remark about Haiku 5.5 and Chinese models in general).

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by zer00eyz on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:04PM (#50407550)
> Current top models are mere (mere in big datacenter terms) trillions of parameters right now. ... We'll soon start hitting 10's of trillions and 100's of trillions of parameter models.

Chinchilla Law says no, we wont. We're likely well past the point of diminishing returns but MOE hides a fair bit of it.

We already know that power laws apply to scaling so 10x the size is going to result in minor gains - where costs become a real factor (as if they weren't already).

FTA "The core philosophy there is scaling, and aggressively not research."

This is where the real gains for AI come from - good enough and CHEAP is going to win the day here (brute force, mixture of models). It's the engineers displacing the academics - and that will mean a bloodbath for revenue (see DeepInfer for what the end game looks like).

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by tehjoker on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:32PM (#50407782)
I'm not an AI booster (in a "should" not "can" sense), but in terms of "can" we are going to see next generation hardware (i.e. Vera Rubin GPU architecture) and improvements in model density (i.e. loosely improvements in intelligence per millions of weights), so the models will get bigger, the models will get more dense, and we may see more "expert models" i.e. in the sense that for a while there were human generalists that knew all of science and mathematics until the 1800s, after a certain point we had to specialize since there was too much to know. The models will need to partially specialize after hitting the hardware ceiling.

Bioinspired algorithms may eventually lead to vastly improved intelligence per a weight too.

I don't think we should do this, but I feel doomed in that I suspect that we "can".

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by ACCount39 on Saturday November 07, 2026 @05:08PM (#50408518)
> The models will need to partially specialize after hitting the hardware ceiling.

I'm incredibly skeptical of anything that goes "oh, we need to split AI into specialist systems".

I suspect that a lot of the delta between "our best models" and "base models they're trained on" lies in relatively low amounts of parameter changes driven by SFT and RL.

Model capacity is not the limit - the limit is our ability to drive those changes efficiently. Even things like "good research taste" could be represented as tiny in relation to total model capacity, if they could be trained into a model efficiently.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by tehjoker on Saturday November 07, 2026 @07:37PM (#50409439)
At least for now, those keys haven't been completely unlocked, so parameter scaling is the primary way corporations are achieving increases in ability. If they hit the hardware ceiling, maybe the research direction changes then.

I forget who said it, but a trenchant insight is that current neural networks are generalized function approximators and essentially they are doing through brute force what biology accomplishes elegantly. Our hardware (both in the sense of our brains in terms of elegance and our computer chips in terms of raw throughput) is amazing.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by zer00eyz on Saturday November 07, 2026 @10:56PM (#50410303)
> so parameter scaling is the primary way corporations are achieving increases in ability

Thinking tokens have nothing to do with parameter count and where some of the biggest gains have come from.

We're really past the point of scaling parameters being viable. We simply lack the content to make "bigger" better at this point.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by ACCount39 on Sunday November 08, 2026 @07:05AM (#50412542)
No, parameter scaling still works because it broadly increases sample efficiency. We don't have the data to make a Chinchilla optimal 100T, but that doesn't mean there are no gains in building up to 100T.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by ACCount39 on Sunday November 08, 2026 @07:01AM (#50412520)
I don't think "biology" and "elegantly" belongs in the same sentence. Let alone the one you wrote.

I suspect that the "elegant" workings of the human brain are a pile of hacks. Evolution crammed the brain full of patterns that are a good fit for the specific problems it typically solves - the way curve detectors and scale invariance are a good fit for CNNs.

We don't have millions of years of evolution, but what we have is enormous datasets and compute at scale.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by siva7 on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:11PM (#50407601)
I'm seeing the same pattern at other multinationals with huge R&D departments. Mostly colleagues with academic pedigree in traditional ai research who have been for years in denial that transformers are actually - in combination with recent advanced patterns in software development - the key to ai. it's really simple as that! except they weren't part of the revolution and still don't want to accept the reality that their research has become obsolete.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by Frost1x on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:28PM (#50407752)
Is it the key to AI? It probably depends on the squishy definition of AI and what different people want from it. If your definition includes self awareness and sentience I’m not sure it is the key (I’m also not entirely convinced it isn’t, either), but it’s not clear either way in my opinion.

The one thing that is clear is if it can become more cost effective it’s world changing. Even at its subsidized standards now it’s world changing. And it’s reasonably classified as AI IMO, but it’s not self aware.

I think a lot of your general traditional researchers are fundamentally looking to understand ourselves through machines as proxies in a sense. Something self aware that senses, learns, adapts, so on. The current path isn’t there or necessarily clearly the key to achieving that. That may be the disconnect. I think LLMs may give us some hints at that but not the full picture.

Still incredibly powerful for things we once considered nearly impossible.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by andriy_koval on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:41PM (#50407844)
> still don't want to accept the reality that their research has become obsolete.

I see it that most of legacy research is not obsolete but can be significantly amplified by AI.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by jmull on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:12PM (#50407618)
What makes sense is to do both.

Race down the transformer highway as fast as possible and explore other AI methods.

One need not preclude the other.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by knollimar on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:19PM (#50407678)
as fast as possible implies spending the resources that way.

Going close to as fast as possible while saving a stream for the other approaches makes sense as an approach, but let's not ignore that there's a compromise/tradeoff here. Might not matter in orgs with near infinite resources

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by Fordec on Saturday November 07, 2026 @05:59PM (#50408857)
Also in an exponential competition environment, the difference between 100% commitment and 98% commitment is very possibly not even the difference between a win and second place, but outright lapping by the winner and humiliation at the scale of the gap for second place.

For an example of what this looks like at a more pronounced scale just look at the discourse around European models and how far behind Minstral are perceived to be.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by fallingbananna on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:20PM (#50407685)
My understanding is that the resources are limited and even AI labs with all the funding in the world don't have enough hardware.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by caminante on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:25PM (#50407729)
Except doing both..is..so..hard when the future payoff of one is more unclear and you are faced with quarterly earnings reports.

Look at what happened to Meta where they squandered a lead, had some mixed results, and reorged to more product certainty and away from fundamental research.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by joe_the_user on Saturday November 07, 2026 @06:13PM (#50408950)
Theoretically one need doesn't preclude the other. The OP gives a detailed argument and his own experience of one need precluding the other in practice.

Both of these approaches require quite a bit of institutional support notably.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by lanthissa on Saturday November 07, 2026 @07:06PM (#50409265)
it literally does when gpu's are scarce.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by joe_the_user on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:15PM (#50407636)
It seems extremely likely to me that scaling produces benefits, it will get better at particular things things continue but scaling by itself isn't heading to general intelligence.

I should also say that I use ChatGpt daily and enjoy it for researching algorithms. I tried to set up Claude last week and it/he was so overwhelming as to be unusable. So I think frontier models can be "unwieldy" or something for average use.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by jurgenburgen on Saturday November 07, 2026 @05:46PM (#50408753)
> it/he

It

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by sigbottle on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:16PM (#50407639)
This doesn't engage with the article in the precise way that transformer-based improvements and fundamental research that way are not being incorporated into models, at Microsoft AI, which is concerning.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by markasoftware on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:25PM (#50407736)
is scaling working? It is also my understanding that Opus 5.5 is probably a well under 10T parameter model. Probably a similar size class to Fable 5 earlier. And supposedly even GPT-4 was a 1T model. Clearly most of the gains are coming from something other than scaling up the model size. Yes, scaling up RL counts as scaling too, but the fact that labs have pivoted to a different axis of scaling is evidence that it's not just a "straight highway" to improve LLMs.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by qlte on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:46PM (#50407891)
From the outside it seemed like GPT 4.5 was the apogee of parameter size scaling and since then a huge investment in RLVR became the new scaling axis.

So yeah, LLMs keep getting more powerful/useful but because of an industry wide pivot not a "straight highway" as imagined in the GPT-4 era, when simply going bigger and bigger seemed like a reasonable roadmap for the foreseeable future.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by gradus_ad on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:54PM (#50407950)
What if scaling fails to hold at a certain point? Whether that is a steep or gradual dropoff in returns. What happens to the empires of accumulated compute? How much value do they immediately lose once the returns to scaling ceiling is reached?
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by SJMG on Saturday November 07, 2026 @04:26PM (#50408217)
[delayed]
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by sidibe on Saturday November 07, 2026 @10:17PM (#50410138)
At this point I think it'll be a lot easier to find out what happens then and what to do next if you're using the frontier AI
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by eastbound on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:55PM (#50407962)
> Foot down, get to 10 trillion parameters, see if the scaling holds, if so off to 100 trillion parameters

Moore's law: Computing power is multiplied by 10 every 6 months? Can't wait for the optimization and rationalization phase, where we'll recover a trillionth of that power to run powerful databases.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by MisterTea on Saturday November 07, 2026 @03:58PM (#50407993)
> Essentially the messaging it "Foot down, there's a straight highway ahead don't divert".

Feels like this is leaving major breakthroughs on the table for the competition. Sure, transformers might get us much farther. But if someone figures out an approach that unlocks a performance boost or better resolution then they are going to kill the competition.

Feels like the American industry is high on all the capitol being shoveled into the furnace without caring how efficient the furnace is. At some point someone is going to make a breakthrough and burst that bubble. This could crater the value as we are currently betting on the low power efficiency of the models as the barrier of entry and point of profit. Of course that would lead to cheaper AI but is that profitable vs local models once (or if) it becomes affordable to do so?

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by mikert89 on Saturday November 07, 2026 @04:08PM (#50408080)
Yup, we havent seen any limits yet. We have discovered a general learning algorithm. We are in for big things
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by gxs on Saturday November 07, 2026 @04:15PM (#50408139)
These corporations have an obscene amount of money

This is a false dichotomy if I ever saw one

Why not hedge and just keep an ai skunkworks team working? These companies are big enough that they can have these people far away from the main work without distraction or without starving those teams of bandwidth

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by HDThoreaun on Sunday November 08, 2026 @01:28AM (#50410917)
The companies would rather have all the skunkworks people working on making the LLMs better.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by pvab3 on Saturday November 07, 2026 @04:23PM (#50408184)
Aren't there scaling laws with corpus size and parameter count?
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by rib3ye on Saturday November 07, 2026 @04:26PM (#50408216)
Ignoramus question: does the 100s of trillions of parameters world still exist with a constrained domestic data center build out? Democrats are signaling they are about to go psycho mode on data center contracts.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by konschubert on Saturday November 07, 2026 @04:56PM (#50408407)
If not in the US then in other countries.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by thesmtsolver2 on Saturday November 07, 2026 @05:27PM (#50408643)
Like the sister comment, if not in US then in other countries.

US rightfully placed a bunch of labor/environmental regulations around manufacturing which moved to China but stupidly didn't place restrictions on goods manufactured with severe labor and environmental violations.

We are repeating the mistake again.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by mullingitover on Saturday November 07, 2026 @08:00PM (#50409571)
> US rightfully placed a bunch of labor/environmental regulations around manufacturing which moved to China but stupidly didn't place restrictions on goods manufactured with severe labor and environmental violations.

The 'US' isn't a monolithic thing. US market leaders convinced US politicians to open US markets to China, and the lack of labor and environmental regulations was a feature, not a bug in the plan.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by thesmtsolver2 on Saturday November 07, 2026 @11:34PM (#50410440)
> The 'US' isn't a monolithic thing

Yeah, we all know that.

Who voted for the politicians? Who clamored for cheaper goods and fell for the lies?

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by motoboi on Saturday November 07, 2026 @04:56PM (#50408410)
Get the transformer to help accelerate research. That's how you get a new architecture.

Anthropic, which is more open about this has shown the numbers, it works.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by Brystephor on Saturday November 07, 2026 @06:09PM (#50408930)
Im at a company with its own set of machine learning engineers, a few separate organizations internally have them so probably a few hundred MLEs in total.

More and more, the talk of using generative models (e.g. transformers) is coming up to replace existing models in all concepts. Anything from understanding data, image recognition, labeling, ranking, etc.

As someone who is not an MLE and really doesnt understand these models well, it seems like the transformer approach is a "one size fits all" solution that may not be optimal for all problem categories but is good enough that its not worth investing in specialized models to get incremental improvements.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by TomJansen on Saturday November 07, 2026 @07:03PM (#50409233)
Isn't the thing with transformers is that they work really well, but only if you have a lot of training data? If data is sparse, you need more specialized models
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by mrandish on Saturday November 07, 2026 @06:56PM (#50409198)
> there's a straight highway ahead

Which many credible, AI researchers believe is already starting up an increasingly steep scaling wall of diminishing returns that eventually ends at a brick wall.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by falcor84 on Saturday November 07, 2026 @07:00PM (#50409220)
I've been hearing a lot of "credible AI researchers" talk about these diminishing returns of transformer-based architectures since 2023 (at the least), and I'm still waiting to see this promised plateau materialize, because I definitely can't see it in https://metr.org/time-horizons/ or in my personal experience.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by mrandish on Saturday November 07, 2026 @08:23PM (#50409684)
Assuming super-linear growth will continue based on the first 3 years of a new technology? Almost every physical, computational and economic system in history—from Dennard scaling in silicon to transonic aviation speed looked super-linear until it hit the inflection point in its eventual S-curve.

A Copernican/Lindy baseline suggests the growth rate in LLM intelligence will peak in around another 2-4 years and I'm leaning on the low side because while the growth of LLM intelligence per dollar and per month are still growing in absolute terms, the growth rate of both seems to already be falling as power-law constraints in compute and data bottlenecks take hold.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by famouswaffles on Sunday November 08, 2026 @04:20AM (#50411639)
There's just not much value to a 'Every technology hit a brick wall eventually' take. Anyone can spout that. Why even bring 'credible AI researchers' if that's all it amounts to. What is relevant is the foresight to predict when and at what capabilities. It doesn't change much of anything if LLMs 'plateau' right after they can replace any human at any job.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by MantisShrimp90 on Saturday November 07, 2026 @07:26PM (#50409387)
That depends on your definition of scale. Yes! We were to literally convert the whole world and its resources into data centers.

But the whole problem is that these things aren't acting like other technological revolutions like the internet or Google where lots of profit comes from relatively little spend. They scale linearly maybe if you are super smart and good about your design.

Meanwhile, citizens all over the world are fighting data centers tooth and nail because we are hitting a scaling limit in terms of the resources people will allow to be put into this highway project and its equally unwise and untethered from reality to pretend this doesn't matter in a strategic sense.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by doctorpangloss on Sunday November 08, 2026 @12:12AM (#50410585)
"citizens all over the world" will not lift a finger for CAFOs or trawl fishing. i really don't think anyone "fighting data centers tooth and nail" is doing so because of a belief in the limits of scaling or any understanding of scarcity.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by mullingitover on Saturday November 07, 2026 @08:07PM (#50409603)
I'm still convinced the model advancements are largely US firms jingling a set of keys in front of investors/markets/the public to distract while they scramble to build serious patent moats around the harness/orchestration/infrastructure technologies.

I think that we're well into diminishing returns already. The models have improved, but to me the far bigger advances have been in feeding them contexts, building them into loops, etc.

I don't even think much more construction is really necessary in data centers. We can do a lot more with the power/HVAC we have, especially once the ASICs start coming online.

It's like we invented the wheel in 2022, the crowds are fighting over capital to build wheel factories, and savvier tech firms are quietly patenting automobile designs while everyone's focused on making slightly rounder wheels.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by Incipient on Saturday November 07, 2026 @08:20PM (#50409665)
I would say I used to believe how the models would scale, now I'm a bit more skeptical. I would be incredibly surprised if oai, anthropic, etc hadn't at least TRIED this yet. They have the compute to do it. They're either sitting on it and saving it for a rainy day, or there is something wrong with it.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by flatline on Saturday November 07, 2026 @08:51PM (#50409809)
We know nothing about their internal models that, for instance, produced revolutionary results in mathematics. The public no longer gets to see what’s at the frontier, and we may never see much of it. Also, the cost to train these is immense. China literally does not have enough chips in circulation to compete. I’m not sure where US lab capabilities tap out but I suspect they are at least partly bound by GPU production as well at this point.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by octoberfranklin on Saturday November 07, 2026 @09:10PM (#50409886)
We know that if this immense cost had in fact been spent, and the internal models really were that revolutionary, these companies would be selling access to it for cash instead of taking on mountains of debt.

We definitely know that.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by flatline on Saturday November 07, 2026 @09:29PM (#50409955)
I agree they would not shut up about it if they had something to reveal, so we probably have a semi-accurate vision of the capabilities if not the implementation details.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by octoberfranklin on Saturday November 07, 2026 @09:04PM (#50409865)
> "Hey this Opus 5.5 with the increased parameters seems much better than the last one". Well that's a trillion parameter model.

Opus is 5T, not 1T.

> We'll soon start hitting 10's of trillions

Fable is already 10T.

> "Foot down, there's a straight highway ahead don't divert". I have the view this makes sense too.

The roadblock they ignored is politics.

Three days ago the states where most of the new datacenters are being built (Texas, Ohio, Georgia and others) elected governors who campaigned on halting datacenter construction. The highway metaphor implies money in => intelligence out. Turns out there's at least one other ingredient, and we just ran out of it.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by SideQuark on Saturday November 07, 2026 @09:22PM (#50409928)
More parameters without significantly more data fails; it loses the ability to generalize and simply memorizes.

And we’ve consumed pretty much all the data, and that part is getting harder as data is now expensive, Balkanized by owners, litigated and charged for. Couple that with model collapse as models eat their own output (not solved for any models, despite more than a decade of the problem), and add that lots of previously human curated datasets (stack overflow style), and it very well may be the models are not getting much better.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by robrenaud on Saturday November 07, 2026 @09:26PM (#50409942)
Very large models trained with sgd variants don't tend to over fit, especially when using few epochs. See double descent.

The coding/math breakthroughs were caused by training models on the subset of their own outputs which pass a verifier, see reinforcement learning from verified rewards.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by SideQuark on Sunday November 08, 2026 @06:34AM (#50412368)
More data or parameters can break double descent; it's not a magic free ride, e.g.,

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1912.02292

There's plenty more. Read Google scholar

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by comicjk on Saturday November 07, 2026 @09:53PM (#50410042)
This is what I thought a year ago, too. But how does it explain what has happened since?
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by samsartor on Saturday November 07, 2026 @11:48PM (#50410489)
That's the historical wisdom, but there are reasons to believe the opposite: that past a certain point more parameters are always better. Basically, that overfitting don't matter, because a large enough model will memorize and build the general solution simultaneously. Then weight decay and SGD noise encourage forgetting of the memorized solution so the general solution takes over.

https://youtu.be/lKoJJxjUfdw is a really excellent lecture that changed how I think about it.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by paganel on Sunday November 08, 2026 @02:55AM (#50411257)
> Hey this Opus 5.5 with the increased parameters seems much better than the last one

The LLMs still hallucinate way too much when there's no computer code involved, but the computer programmers in here won't be aware of that.

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by dannyw on Sunday November 08, 2026 @08:25AM (#50413109)
Do they really? If your experience is with the free version of ChatGPT, I wouldn't be surprised if you're running a MoE with like 8-12B active params and <100B total.
Re:The End of AI Frontiers by lordnacho on Sunday November 08, 2026 @04:50AM (#50411795)
Why wouldn't the explore/exploit balance leave at least a little to the explore side? Huge amounts of money are going into AI, why not save a little bit to keep an eye on the things that don't currently look like they're going to scale up?

Like maybe a couple dozen people on an explore team?

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by YeGoblynQueenne on Sunday November 08, 2026 @08:51AM (#50413378)
>> We definitely haven't hit the ceiling and everyone's noticing "Hey this Opus 5.5 with the increased parameters seems much better than the last one".

Opus is better (not necessarily "very much") than Sonnet in coding. That's because of a gigantic engineering effort to make it better at coding. That is a regression: we've gone from "sparks of AGI" and systems that were said to be "genearl-purpose" to systems that do one thing well and everything else... well, there's no real measure of how better Opus is from Sonnet in replying to your emails so it's hard to say.

Same goes for OpenAI in maths. Industry wide, there is a regression from general-purpose to special-purpose systems, like in Good, Old-Fashioned AI. LeCun is absolutely right to complain that this is not the path to general intelligence. I don't think his preferred approach, JEPA, is going anywhere either, but at least he's trying. Other luminaries of the field have expressed similar doubts, e.g. Richard Sutton's tweet was in my news feed yesterday saying that brute force is ngmi and algorithmic advances are needed [1]. Schmidhuber I think has said multiple times something along the lines of "there is no intelligence without physical intelligence".

We are very far from that. The recent trend for Vision-Language-Action Transformers (VLA-Transformers) in robotics has conclusively demonstrated that you can't solve the real world by overfitting to a set of discrete tasks, and there is no source of data that we can harness to repeat the feat of LLMs. Algorithmic advances will be necessary, but as the article suggests, these have now be put on hold.

There is a dumbing down, slowing down of research as all resources are spent to try and scale what we have now. What we have now is not enough for intelligence, but that doesn't matter. The industry's goal is not intelligence, it's making more money than anyone has ever made before; in fact more money than all humans put together have ever made before. That's the current race: who will win the money game. Obviously that's not likely to do anything for intelligence.

____________

[1] Brute force computation is not enough for intelligence. Clever new methods are needed. The science of AI is far from finished. IMHO

https://x.com/RichardSSutton/status/2119142310894334262?a=ry...