HDThoreaun

Cowen was talking up prediction markets before they existed. Both kalshi and polymarket were founded because they listened to cowens thoughts on them. He is absolutely a true believer in prediction markets. Whether that makes him trustworthy is a different issue, but he’s not bought and paid for.

Arizona filed criminal charges against kalshi and its executives in May and lost before it could even go to trial. The growing consensus among the courts is that states do not have the right to enforce this. Needs to go to the Supreme Court now

Arizona already tried charging kalshi criminally and lost. This will go nowhere

Is that why java is such a popular language these days?

After anthropic lost $1.5 bill for pirating books they decided to pull a google and manually scan every book ever written. The number of people needed to gather the data they need is probably massive.

Jevons paradox strikes again. When work becomes more productive often the business finds so much more to do that they end up using even more resources. Why do more with less when you can do even more with more?

Most dialogue in games is crap. I would much rather have an LLM writing the dialogue so that it can include references to player choices over what currently exists.

When I tried to use the deepseek api all my cards got declined. "Oh great" I thought "finally a use for my last $10 of crypto." But they dont accept crypto. Instead they want me to transfer money into a paypal account which takes a week.

Binance is probably worth at the very least $30 bil. They can get a loan to cover withdrawals if they need to. Crypto hedge funds would love to because a binance collapse is bad for everyone who is long crypto

Ive never had a meta account. Zuckerberg still has all my data and knows everything about me. At some point people decide its not worth hiding from mega corps

All the AI revenue is booked under GCP. This isnt any different from people saying openai and anthropic are selling a dollar for 50 cents

My understanding is that it’s close to impossible for a US resident to bring one of the Chinese EVs into the states. You have to live in Mexico

Mexican residents can bring a non us legal car to the us for up to a year. If you’re a US citizen living in Mexico it is more complicated but I think you should still be able to bring it for a year.

Google has spent $132 billion on capex this year. Most of that money is going to GCP. We have to think about the hundreds of billions being invested to contextualize the profit numbers. $40 bill a year is not enough to justify the capex they’re partaking in, GCP still needs to grow a lot to be successful.

Google is selling shovels. They spent $131 billion to produce shovels so far this year

Less than 15% of drugs that go through phase 1 trials end up passing phase 3. Drug discovery may be “easy” but we are not doing a very good job at it given the limited number of trials we can run. If AI can help rule out more of the molecules the hard part of the pharma business, running the trials, will become much more fruitful.

The next step is already mostly noise. Less than 15% of drugs that go through phase 1 trials end up passing phase 3. The goal here isn’t to do drug discovery faster, it’s to get that 15% number up.

Choosing the molecules is by far the most important part of drug discovery. It may only be 20% of the work, but everything downstream relies on it. If ai is able to change the odds of discovering a molecule that ends up passing phase 3 from eg 5% to 10% then you only have to do half as many trials to get the same number of drugs. So even though drug discovery doesn’t take a ton of time doing a better job at it can save huge amounts of time down the line.

Dario has a PhD in biophysics

The covid productivity spike is because all the low productivity retail workers got laid off. Then as they came back to work productivity went back down

I think this is a pretty decent idea and hopefully within a decade at least california will be doing it. The problem though is that the biggest advantage of an EV is that you charge it overnight and never need to worry about going to the gas station or running low on power. I think a pretty significant number of people would want 100% charge every morning which makes the total addressable battery size a good bit smaller.

We went through this with Google. Scanning books is legal as long as you then immediately destroy them. Then since training with material you own is fair use they’re good to go.

The US uses around 4TWh of electricity a night. A battery with that capacity, to get through the night with no generation, would cost over a trillion dollars. Of course thered still be some generation at night, but still, using a battery just to get through the night is not even close to viable

Prediction markets dont take positions so there is no way for them to make money depending on who wins. When they create their own market making firm like FTX did then its time to worry about match fixing.

Political power stems from the ability to enact violence. Until the military is run by ai and robots all institutions are beholden to the masses. There are very few examples in history of people accepting a widespread decrease in quality of life. When quality of life decreases revolution isnt far behind.

It doesnt make economic sense to serve the entirety of daytime electricity demand from solar without batteries. Youd have to tons of fossil fuel plants that turn off during the day and then back on every night. For solar to take the next step batteries are a requirement

Medical transcription isnt speech to text. The doctors I know at a major midwest provider had indian doctors live reading the speech to text and then filling out the chart which the doctor then signed off on. Now theyre using AI instead

Maybe this is just a cultural thing because yes, speed limits are irrelevant in the US. I do not expect people to follow all the laws all the time. Do you not have jaywalking laws?

It is absolutely ridiculous that a permitting mishap over a miniscule piece of land is a major story. It speaks more to the media and political environment than anything else

A lot of businesses have physical requirements. AGI has nothing to do with robotics so its hard for me to say you have to be able to replace a random business to be AGI. Definitely feels like we'd have AI investment firms if we had agi though