The End of AI Frontiers

Re:The End of AI Frontiers by mrandish on Saturday November 07, 2026 @08:23PM (#50409684)

Assuming super-linear growth will continue based on the first 3 years of a new technology? Almost every physical, computational and economic system in history—from Dennard scaling in silicon to transonic aviation speed looked super-linear until it hit the inflection point in its eventual S-curve.

A Copernican/Lindy baseline suggests the growth rate in LLM intelligence will peak in around another 2-4 years and I'm leaning on the low side because while the growth of LLM intelligence per dollar and per month are still growing in absolute terms, the growth rate of both seems to already be falling as power-law constraints in compute and data bottlenecks take hold.

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Re:The End of AI Frontiers by famouswaffles on Sunday November 08, 2026 @04:20AM (#50411639)

There's just not much value to a 'Every technology hit a brick wall eventually' take. Anyone can spout that. Why even bring 'credible AI researchers' if that's all it amounts to. What is relevant is the foresight to predict when and at what capabilities. It doesn't change much of anything if LLMs 'plateau' right after they can replace any human at any job.

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