lanthissa
dog food is heavy, and a repeat purchase that often requires its own store and brings no joy. Its the ideal thing to get delivered to your house on a schedule.
books are something you choose differently everytime, and the people that like them read recreationally.
Bezos was on another level, launching a successful company(online books) that was effectively just a way to boot strap into an everything store.
they invented mcp, terminal coding agent, context files like claude/agents.md.
I have no real clue whos going to win the model race but they have repeatedly shown that their internal taste is on point, reminds me a lot of early google.
You cant: 1) win the personal agent (requires a vm for every user) 2) win cloud sales (requires selling your compute) 3) win model war (requires using your compute) 4) win the chip war (requires selling your tpu's themselvs)
Weirdly enough their issue is they're to small to fight every battle, MSFT+Nvidia+Meta+Oai+oracle is like 14T in market cap.
they gave away so much pro that they need to have smaller usage levels than competitors or they'll lose a ton of money. $20 was already a loss for users actually using their quota. the majority of pro users are paying far less than that.
so they'll lose their paying users, and keep their free or subsudized, which will make the economics even worse.
thats a good thing.
also a cmu grad claiming the morality of the money going into education and naming rights matter is hilarious.
both its founders were worse than ken, and again at least hte money went to something good.
I think that should be a really bad sign, but hope its great.
if you're in a war where people are shooting your satellites out of the sky you're past the point where defenses matter. theres no grey war in space like russia hiring people to blow up stuff in europe and very few states could take out multiple satellites in space.
beyond that if we ever did get to that point, you could develop anti missile tech in space, you effectively have the high ground sitting at the top of the gravity well.
the first "Country of geniuses in a datacenter" moment.
some might go so far as to call this a country of geniuses in a data center.
Everyones hyped about the branded phone, but it was the chip that mattered and how fast you rushed a product out after you got it.
Sames true now, except size of training run is also a factor.
it used to be snapdragon came out HTC rushed out a janky phone everyone went omg htc is goat, then in the next few weeks and months others would impliment better versions and people would not notice those as much, finally sony would release a polished phone right as the next snapdragon cycle came.
eventually compute gains leveled off and apple won on taste.
nvidia/tpu is the new snapdragon. Anthropic and google both peaked on the first training run on a new tpu cycle.
you should expect amazing things within a few months of each other from everyone with access to chips and willingness to use them on a training run.
We haven't seen willingness from google to do that. So its currently xai,oai,anthropic, and probably soon meta.
what you have to keep in mind is homeowners salary is way above avg salary so anything you can do to effect them has a much larger impact than it would seem at first.
anthropic probably has more customers that use more of their sub, but for open ai where a lot of their subs are consumers through chatgpt.com, they have a lot of free money to work with there
releasing a model worse than luna is pretty bad. Its clear that internally they did not decide coding was a thing until relatively recently.
opencode builds a lot more in, which is better if you dont want to fiddle with config.
and the interesting thing about system prompt wastage is its a cost that scales non linearly with subagent use.
From an org perspective the goal is to create the highest curve of performance over the lifetime engagement of the employee or from the employee perspective their career.
And a lot of that depends on teh relationship of the people involved. From my perspective its a net negative when if my movers worked out the day before, their muscles will be sore and they'll do a worse or slower job. From the moving companies perspective its good, they'll be stronger for more jobs. Unless they quit or are fired that day, in which case we're back to bad.
The real evaluation isn't the macro vs the sublime edit. its does the thought process of making them macro improve them in other things, and what were they doing before that. In my experience no one is going use the time they spent writing a macro or a learning vim to do real meaningful work, they're doing that because they're bored or burned out and want to think about something else they find fun at the time.
your problem isn't your employees choose to write random scripts, its that they dont have a sense of urgency or care about their current task.
Not only are prices good, but if i lose my remote or need a shovel for the winter or whatever in 2000 im going to a store for that, that 15m of my time each way+parking+less choice.
Lets say i make $50 an hour, and lets say i value my free time at my working rate (i'd argue most people by definition value it more or they'd be working more hours).
Saving me 10m in the store 15m of driving both ways and 2-3m of transit is worth more than most items i purchase.
Amazons solved the last mile problem by having one vehicle bring each item to each home so its marginal cost of delivery is the distance between each home instead of the round trip between home and return that a customer has.
The more items you buy at one store the less valuable this is, which is part of why costco is well served by having such large product sizes.
ofc you would prefer high quality content delivered directly to you for free, because you're ignore the producers perspective.
disrupting youtube is super hard, you basically need to bring your own audience from something else to do it, or have a platform already existing that you expand into the us.
in copilot i can could pass all my automated browser testing to 3.5 flash, could use dirt cheap models for simple tool that were better than claude.
i'd just use open router but @work we only have copilot and claude
pleasantly surprised, claude's way ahead in tooling but the ability to designate what model your subagents use and having access to all models is a better feature than all of what claude offers combine atm.
The only limit on the amount of ai can consume in a month a work is dollars, so anything that helps with cost is the best model/harness for me.
It also did a better job at smart designating subagents itself where as claude often used higher cost models.
it sucks that we're in a place where the us has an dishonest leadership, because the current situation would be pretty reasonable if any other admin was in charge.
let models go free, until one proves dangerous in the real world then require gov approval after that.
I don't think anyone rational would have the position everyone should have insta access at the same time to the highest model once it crosses the point of enabling actual dangerous things.