Still +4% YoY.

24/7 sensationalist news is just exhausting.

That said, the Nasdaq hasn't seen a lot of -4.8% days recently. This particular article isn't egregious.

Sitting at 5.3% as we speak. This is probably the biggest drop since COVID if it doesn't recover by EoD.

Anyone paying attention knows the market is in a weird place, and large swings today are the small swings of the past. It's hardly a "plummet" when the amortized line for the past month, including today, is mostly a linear decline.

We've had a couple of single-day 4% drops over the past few months too. Oh no, the market is the lowest it's been in... 3 months!?

Could it be a market correction? Could it be a collapse? Sure.

But is a single 4% drop worth a headline "plummeting into correction territory"? Not really.

That term has a very specific meaning in that context.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_correction

Do you think people who buy QQQ are impressed with this?

VTV is up 21% yoy btw.

3 different pods are being liquidated that i've heard of. And the data center trade has been unwound in just 2 days is a pretty violent shock.

Lots of rumors about situational awareness also in alot of trouble. I feel for this guy a bit. He did really well to get a good slug of Anthropic shares that made his investors alot of money.

But since about July when it was clear that Anthropic was done going up like a rocket ship his investors have probably been hounding him about how he's going to make money outside of Anthropic.

his first foray into the public markets was a disaster and might set a record for fastest wipe out from start to finish that forced him to have to sell his public book escape a wind up.

But due to Anthropic taking a possible IPO valuation cut he's had to go back to the public markets at the worst time and if rumours going around today are correct, he's looking at how to liquidate his public portfolio for the second time in the quarter.

His wife is chief of staff to Dario isn't she? Not saying this guy isn't smart but let's call a spade a spade here.

Is this true? Coreweave is down ~66% over the last 6 months, with that decline occurring somewhat linearly over that period (i.e. not last 2 days). Very similar chart for Applied Digital.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/leopold-aschenbrenners-situa...

Sources for what specifically?

If you meant for pods and funds blowing up:

https://x.com/SpecialSitsNews/status/2118415084280242230

Gives a decent list. Though most of the ones i know of are from contacts on the sell side who are assisting with wind downs.

And I don't think i mentioned reddit, you might be replying to the wrong thread?

Troluce and Axebrook had more than $1.5B pulled from them by Millennium.

Walleye is a $17B AUM fund.

> there are like a zillion of these pod shops and tiny firms. doesn't mean much. wake me up when a big fund fails

I get that not everyone knows the industry but consider this your wakeup call:)

I fully understand that very few people on hackernews actually are in the capital markets and i happen to be one so I'll always have a far better understanding than outsiders like your self.

I'm just trying to provide some colour to people regarding what's happening today and why fund closures are magnifying this.

This and Arini in the same year is pretty bad for credit managers.

I am not saying I know it will be fine or I know it will be terrible. I am saying I have lived through many 5%+ drops and they happen on the way up and down.

In the past 5 years the S&P 500 has dropped 5% 1 time. the Nasdaq has done it 3 times.

You are ofcourse welcome to your own definition of a big deal but to me something that happens that rarely is a big deal.

At worst you'd have to agree that hte language is defensible:)

Chips/Memory/data center everything AI has got absolutely destroyed this month.

Look at LITE, FLEX, FIX, TER, WDC, the Kospi.

What is there to feel for him? he took huge bets and lost , although he will still be wealthy no matter how much $ his clients lose.

It's very very far from being unwound. If (or when) it does, many companies in the space will be down 90-100%. Definitely not today.

Investors are not rationalists or effective altruists. They chase the money. If the fundamentals and DD does not math to allow data centers to be profitable, and governments honor the people's will, they will jump ship and quicker than you think. And if governments do not honor the people's will (which is firmly in opposition to the odious people behind this push) then we have far bigger problems to worry about.

Oh, yeah, sure. They'll get right on that. Patriot act is going away any day now. Climate change and healthcare and judicial / law enforcement reform going to be addressed any second.

The grind-down has barely started. We were waiting for a catalyst and it was unexpected. The narrative has shifted to a widespread negative ai-vibe and is hard to counter with any amount of propaganda by the pro ai-crowd. Datacenter debt will be repriced and along with that capex-cuts. These take time and have barely started. The markets have smelt that these are around the corner.

He's an overconfident dipshit who made a few large, successful bets that made heaps of money; but he didn't practice any sort of risk management with his portfolio, and kind of did the opposite.

And despite that failure, he made immense personal wealth and will definitely have the opportunity to run more money in the future.

I'd love to fail as badly as he did.

Yeah, but it's up 50% in the last 5 years. 4% drop puts us back where it was, oh, in July of this year.

A few days at > 10% and that's perfectly doable in a week. Unlikely I'll grant you but this is a large move at the top of a bull market amid huge concentration and weakening fundamentals. There are reasons to pay attention to it.

Am I crazy? Wasn't Astra released just over a month ago? And wasn't Fable 5.1 released around the same time?

Ho often do we expect frontier models to be released?

Fable 5 was June 9 > Fable 5.1 was September 1 (85 days)

Opus 5 was July 24 > Opus 5.5 was September 22 (61 days)

Yeah, we're not due for a model refresh until the end of month if current release roadmaps of 2-3 months hold.

That's newsworthy, but also not extremely unusual.

The more interesting detail than nasdaq overall is just what sectors are having bad days and how concentrated that is. Seems to be predominantly AI companies, which is very relevant to the HN crowd.

Stock volatility is typically clustered. So, we can't make this type of claim. Just like this statement is flawed: Chicago experiences below freezing weather 10% of the time, so every 10 days you see below freezing weather.

Although I didn't claim "twice every year" in my top-level comment either. It's just a very basic statement of the base rate.

Make it eight-times every four years or sixteen-times every eight years. I don't think it really changes the point.

Markets move. Sometimes they move more than normal. This is one of those times.

Will it keep moving? Will it crash? Maybe! But what it has done right now is not that.

June had two similar NASDAQ corrections, July had one as well. Sept was flat, but October was a straight downward trend. On the flip side, April to June was a constantly increasing.

The last time the NASDAQ was this low was all the way back in April 2026...

At the end of the day, everyone's retirement is tied to the SP500 and it will always go up.

Not when more retired boomers are pulling more money out than GenZ/Alphas are putting in.

That isn't where the money propping up the SP500 is coming from. It is a ponzi scheme, yes. It is held up by $40,000,000,000,000 in national debt. That can is getting kicked down the line to one or two generations that haven't been born yet.

You and I don't need to worry about it because we will be long gone by then.

All we know know is that Elon isn't getting any more freshly minted currency.

A more interesting stat is the current CAPE.

https://www.thetrading.tools/shiller-cape

It is at levels only seen three times in the last century.

People seem to call it a "correction" to make themselves feel better but they're all just crashes to me, and crashes are normal

If those 147 4% drops actually happened every 100 days or so then it's not newsworthy or interesting, just an occasional correction.

If those 147 days happened all in a row that would mean the nasdaq dropped to 0.25% of its original value in about 4 months, which would be catastrophic.

The real answer is presumably somewhere in the middle, but the specifics are what determines if it's worth noting or not.

https://x.com/JeffFlake/status/2118355575356727470

https://x.com/tedcruz/status/2118125881067487633

1. The US went from net-exporter to net-importer (so: reciprocal and cascading retaliation was not possible on nearly the same scale)

2. Durable goods deflated until they were a small part of the economy

That's why the reaction this time around was a "buy the dip" and not another great depression (although the great depression itself was exceptional, countries successfully wield protectionism all the time, see China). Unfortunately, tariffs are only one component of functional industrial policy. Imagine you are considering investing in a factory: you don't just need protected outputs, you need cheap inputs, available capital, and above all enough stability to reasonably expect to see your returns before one of those pillars gets yanked. Trump got halfway to step 1, so he inflicted most of the damage without even buying a reasonable chance of success. But yes, at least the damage was relatively small, although "he followed it up with Iran which was much worse" isn't much of a consolation.

Trump (come January anyway) is a lame duck now, especially with a blue Congress. He won't get anything substantial through Congress and everyone's attention will will rapidly shift to who is running in 2028.

Almost all of the interconnect backlog is renewables, so this helps renewables far more than it helps fossil interests, but some progressives want to sabotage the bill because it could theoretically help fossil fuel interests. Yet, there's no way a "better" bill would get past filibuster or Trump's veto.

We'll find out if Democrats let the perfect be the enemy of the good enough. Whether they're willing to compromise to get things done.

See https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/04/data-center-ballot-measures-...

You had a good comment until this line.

With all respect, that's ridiculous analysis. Even if that were true, the election was the day BEFORE yesterday! You're telling me that the entire world of trading and investment was unable to see the obvious news on their televisions and needed to wait an entire trading day before issuing the sell orders? No one was able to front run this?

That's just silly, sorry.

socialize the losses

we truly have learned nothing :/

And why should it have? Ridiculous to pre-emptively talk about a bailout before a crash has even materialized. Who exactly was going to be bailed out?

Maybe you don't like the possibility of Wall Street planning on a bailout, but they are constantly doing that and they also plant stories / narratives in the media encouraging it and they likely whisper in the ears of their politicians that it will "help save the economy" or whatever the FUD of the day is.

https://democrats-financialservices.house.gov/news/documents...

I'm not going to comment on the AI bubble, nor if this bill would actually have an effect, but I think this certainly will have an effect on Wall Street's behavior.

AI is not going anywhere and will only grow more and more.

But if you look at where the money leaving tech stocks is going, it seems to be rotating into defensive stocks. If that momentum continues, we may have hit a local maxima for a while.

It won't drop off by a cliff, migrating from existing tooling/vendor that works might just not be worth it, but it seems that there will be less and less money in the frontier

So, approximately how many of those investors are going to lose their jobs and their money for betting on data center buildout while also going about the data center buildout in the most obnoxious, exploitative, electorate-alienating way possible?

Wednesday - "Market soars because of election"

Thursday - "Market plummets because of election"

Can we at least agree that no one has any idea what is going on?

Thanks to whoever added that sub, now we have rubbish like this.

"Market drops 3% as Foo"

Yesterday Nvidia's market cap was 4.89T. Today it is $4.45T. What happened to the $440 billion? Do you think we could have built factories with it?

That said, a lower share price is not a cost to the company, except perhaps in terms of stock based compensation.

Theoretically the market cap should equal the present value of expected future returns (dividends and buybacks, not speculation), modulo risk, but that assumes a perfect market.

Did you just wake up from a 30 year nap or?

When we were coming out of Covid, Biden just needed to ease regulations temporarily and do anything to get businesses functioning again. Instead, he listened to his radical base and punished companies with more regulations and taxes. Immediately shutting down the Alaskan pipeline was another mistake.

The end result was the start of the shitty economy and job market we see today.

I’m not saying Europe is automatically better on those axes, but even the least charitable assessments have it very competitive with the US on several.

All of which is to say: “well if our politics are so backwards how come we have so much economic/military power?” is a structurally useless question to ask, because those things are not correlates the way people think they are. It’s like asking “if your car is so much safer than mine, how come mine is so much faster?”

The current economy being Biden’s fault, and not tariffs, corrupt tax cuts for the rich, and oil blockades, is certainly a take.

Judging by the recent elections, I’d say most US voters don’t agree with that take.

It's a "shitty economy" today because

(1) Interest rates were generationally low for an extended period of time from 2009 - 2022. We will likely never see that kind of sugar rush again in our lifetimes.

(2) Trump made a deal with OPEC+ during the early days of Covid to drastically cut supply for some fixed time interval. That agreement hurt our economy coming out of Covid.

(3) Consumers completely changed their behaviors and the supply chain had lots of random kinks in the flow of goods. Some countries still maintained closed borders. Ports had months log backlogs of ships waiting to offload cargo as shipping containers were in short supply where they were needed.

(4) The price of eggs and pork were massively inflated because of avian+swine flu outbreaks which we normally deal with by killing the entire flock.

(5) The west coast had a massive drought and a terrible fire season. This was awful for farming/ranching and we still haven't rebuilt the cow herds that shrunk from those years.

Biden's regulatory regime had almost nothing to do with the efficiency of the economy during his term. Just because he didn't open more of Alaska's wilderness to fresh drilling or because he didn't approve the KeyStone XL pipeline didn't have any noticeable effect on the US economy (except perhaps to keep some more truck drivers employed).

Interesting reading the panic then, and yet the nasdaq is up 65% from those lows, even with today's drop.

China fosters it intensively at the national level through totalitarianism.

In this rapid social change, democratic procedures may now lose their competitiveness.