bagacrap

Google doesn't deny it though

Him:

> campaigns we’ve been running for years with $1000 daily budget caps suddenly began spending $2000+ per day

Them:

> How it works: Google can spend up to twice your average daily budget on any single day to capture high-traffic or high-conversion moments.

What I don't understand about the circular financing is how does it not violate antitrust? All these supposed rivals own huge stakes in each other. Are they really competitors?

Anthropic didn't lose $80B. Some complex securities tied to their stock went up in value by $72B, which they have to count as a loss, even though it's not cash out the door.

As far as Google's mark to market profit on Anthropic shares, everyone realizes that's not a sustainable source of income. Which is probably one reason why it's trading at about 15 times profits. If you back out the $99B of (unrealized) equity gains in anthropic and others, Google is trading at 25 times the last 12m earnings.

Site reliability engineers respond to emergencies and keeps systems online in real time. They are perpetually on call. As a swe, it's much better than having on call rotations.

> Team admins can defer extension installs and updates until a marketplace version has been published for a minimum number of hours.

I think everyone is going to be setting this to 168 after today.

Well I do believe they will try because otherwise they more or less face a bank run, which is worse

This winning mentality netted -$6B profit

The funds were simply de-centralized. Seems by design?

Isn't the anthropic hack a day late?

Somehow bullish if anthropic spins this as Claude's own doing

> Corruption needs something to touch, and we touch nothing.

It always reads to me like some high school essay where the student has nothing more to say but a wordcount requirement they still need to hit.

The $25B fine was not US govt but state govt.

That tells you who wears the big britches.

Trump < Kim Jung Un < Michelle Lujan Grisham

Juicing is not the same as lying. Did you read the post?

I would say actual value is created when the GPU is used to do something useful, like design a better bridge, or whatever, not when the GPU is bought or produced.

The accounting trick pulls forward the point of value creation, and relies on faith, if you assume "value" is supposed to be measured by "earnings".

Ultimately, investors can look at these earnings and decide to pay whatever they are willing to pay for equity in the companies. No one is forcing you to buy SP500 (except if you're part of a defined benefits pension plan). My point is that casual observers should not take earnings growth as proof that the economy is heading in the right direction. There are lies, damn lies, and statistics. And accounting. Msft seems to be pretty good at gaming the accounting fwiw! Financial engineering.

If the company has a sustainable business model it will be profitable and hang around without jacking up prices. If not, you wasted time and money setting up the anthropic tool chain.

Ok great, thanks for clarification. But still, on year 3 of the AI buildout, assuming the pace doesn't accelerate (it's already pretty fast!) then each GPU bought logs $0 profit since it's offset by amortization of the last two years. Compared to $40 of today, profit dropped by $40, meaning earnings contraction is around the corner...? Unless of course Microsoft manages to actually earn $20 or more from each GPU each year.

I suppose the uncertainty here would be the reason for financial market volatility.

So someone correct me but I think this is sort of an accounting trick. When Microsoft buys an Nvidia GPU for $100, it will claim that it lasts 5 years, so writes down $20 in the expense column for this year. Meanwhile Nvidia takes all the profit at time of sale, $100. So for each GPU bought, SP500 logs $80 of profit, even though no money entered or left the SP500.

(Yes of course the GPU cost something to make, but the margins on these things are very high. The point is that revenue is immediate while capital expenses are amortized. And capital expenditure has gone way up lately.)

What's wrong with the old cocaine?

Scientist: "I vibe-coded this pill. Swallow please."

Why is this news? Who didn't realize

> Most of what breaks shows up after the review is done

Cap

I have been in Munich in September and seen the offices empty out at 2pm on a Tuesday for Oktoberfest. No one took a vacation day or stayed late on Wednesday.

Grid scale installations are also amortized over many people (?!?!). This is literally why governments and corporations exist.

And rooftop solar had to be subsidized in the US, so apparently it wasn't attractive enough as an investment on its own. Even now, solar without batteries isn't economically beneficial to individuals, and batteries are ludicrously expensive and require a lot of space.

> I'm surprised to hear that you need to replace roofs every fifteen years.

Asphalt shingles. Of course you can use something else like a metal roof. But the solar panel itself doesn't last that long since efficiency drops and new technology gets so much better. So you're still gonna have a new part of your house that can break whenever it feels like it and needs maintenance every so often. Something I want the government or a utility company to deal with, please.

Right, that's the only benefit. But while the real estate is "free", the cost to install there compared to somewhere else has to include all costs, not just real estate.

Right, so, the OP states "I've never worked more" which invalidates even the concept that we're working equally hard for more output and same pay.

And the reason is likely because AI automates the things that were time consuming but not 'hard'. So now we only have hard stuff left.

if only it were as easy as having a clearly stated contract!

Career advancement and discretionary compensation are nebulously linked to deliverables.

What is the reason you couldnt use your laptop on the beach to do work in 2019? Probably mainly that you are either working or enjoying nature, not both, and if you're working, then an office with reliable Internet, no wind or sun in your face, etc, is more suitable/efficient.

Put another way: if my twin and I are both working at competing firms doing the same job, but I do it via satellite phone while hiking the PCT and he does it from in front of a keyboard, there is no way he's not getting more done, even with AI. The bandwidth of voice/text to speech is a tiny fraction of visual.

AI makes up for a lot of crap tooling, but is often worse than good tooling. In this case "good tooling" would be a document template or formatting language that is easy/fast to use. What I have seen AI do so far if you try to one shot a PowerPoint deck is underwhelming to say the least. (To say more: it looks like a word cannon was used to splatter text on slides with random positions, colors, and fonts.)

I don't get paid more when I work 9 or 10 hours, do I?

I am theoretically paid on deliverables, not hours.

I'm not rly convinced that roofs are the best places for solar.

1. Then you need small scale transformers 2. Lots of roofs have shadows on them a lot of the time, like from trees or other nearby buildings 3. Most roofs have to get replaced every 15 years 4. Roof installed solar is fixed in place

I think parking lots, rural empty land and the like are a better starting point that avoids all 4 of these issues.

I have solar on my roof btw.

I think the $2T valuation or whatever is based on "AI makes knowledge workers 10% more productive", not maximalism. AI maximalism "light" would suggest that Anthropic is the only company, but should be worth 10s of trillions. Full AI maximalism would indeed invalidate money.