Model          | Cached Input | Input (Miss) | Output
   ---------------|--------------|--------------|----------
   Hy4 API        | $0.042       | $0.83        | $2.50
   DeepSeek (peak)| $0.006       | $0.30        | $1.20
   DeepSeek (off) | $0.003       | $0.15        | $0.60

OAI / Ant are in for a reckoning.

https://artificialanalysis.ai/#intelligence-efficiency-tabs

I really want to see some comparison on deepseek 4.1 flash 1017 providers, like, what's more trustworthy to not quantize without disclosing it, etc

also I can't find the official DeepSeek provider on openrouter https://openrouter.ai/deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017

Their coding page shows DeepSeek Max as Pareto optimal: https://artificialanalysis.ai/agents/coding-agents Costing 1/2 of Terra Xhigh. It would also be great to see Sol and Opus not on max there.

Not a useful benchmarking site for coding unless you only want to run your models on Max.

Personally, the thing I'm most excited about is the FrontierCode 2.0 score, which is a benchmark I trust a bit more - 31 seems to be roughly on par with 6.1 Sol and Opus 5.5 medium

So, yeah. Back to GLM 5.3.

If the gap closes, we do zero austerity, and interest rates are high, I cannot see a way out of a major economic crisis, even if we do start to see dramatic productivity wins.

The only thing worse for the economy than failure would be success.

From biggest to smallest, the top three:

AIG controlled $1.05T and market cap crashed from $180B to $3.8B

Wachovia controlled $782B and market cap crashed from $110B to $1.8B

Lehman Brothers controlled $639B and market cap crashed from $60B to $200M.

Massive companies accounting for lots of money in people's retirment accounts. The companies made mistakes leading to what would have resulted or did result in defaulting on their debts. Suddenly billions of dollars vanished from retirement accounts.

We could very easily see a similar cascade of corrections if we get a few more "Alphabet missed earnings" news calls.

... What on earth. Please go outside for awhile.

Ant/OAI/Google are way ahead when it comes to the smartest, largest-scale and most compute-intensive models. By Jevons' paradox, if you make inference for leaner models cheaper (as the Chinese models do, being broadly comparable to GPT Terra or Claude Sonnet; barely approaching Opus/Sol at their very best) that only increases demand for the complementary service of very smart inference.

You have to look at the effect in the aggregate, not just what any single actor is doing. This is the core of Jevons' paradox: it's based on surfacing additional demand for the same product (here, expensive model inference) that wasn't previously viable.

On the other side, I am still shocked at how good Qwen 3.8 Flash Next is on my GB10 Spark-like, even if it is only 45 tk/s decode!

Jevons Paradox is not a rule its just a sometimes observed phenomenon

It says nothing one way or the other whether that would happen or not

If any important bank fails because of this, nationalize it and let their customers exit using money from the federal reserve. Then try and recover as much of that as possible using the banks investment portfolio. Costs a lot less than bailouts.

Modern financial system is less „finite amount of money you can move around in a logical way“ and more confidence based definitely totally not a ponzi scheme

What money are you expecting to get int hat scenario? If I had to guess it wouldn't be a fraction of the cost.

> buy out stakes of pension and index funds

Index funds are part of the reason the top companies stock gets so bloated compared to those just outsid of their frame.

>If any important bank fails because of this, nationalize it and let their customers exit using money from the federal reserve. Then try and recover as much of that as possible using the banks investment portfolio. Costs a lot less than bailouts.

I agree. It worked here in Belgium tho they did spin off toxic elements of the bank in a not so great way prior to doing this.(some regular people still got shafted)

I’ve said it for a while now both here and to friends - by Christmas next year, US AI labs will be trying to catch up with Chinese open models.

… and I think once Qwen’s latest open model beats every US labs, it’s over.

If there is an economic boost, it will come from broad productivity improvements and deflation of costs for services. If OpenAI or Anthropic can capitalize on that or not is a separate question.

OpenAI/Anthropic remind me of Silcon Graphics. Sure, lots of people bought those workstations before MP3 / MPEG video were a thing, and before Voodoo came out with the first cheap 3D accelerators. All the tech trends (software and hardware) back in the 1990's were against them, but their valuation stayed high for a bit longer than rational.

Unless there's some second step function change in AI, LLMs comparable to today's state of the art are going to be running on $1-2K machines in a few years, and they'll be doing it fast and with low wattage. There are already a dozen companies that know how to build that, including in the US, Europe and China.

Unlike SGI: Hopefully, given all the political corruption and fraud in this space, we'll see jail time for the guilty parties.

This is a huge claim. What makes you think this will be the case?

Seems like he's just drawing that line into the future. Which seems sensible enough.

But yeah, I assume that when the economy gets back to normal-ish, in 2024-equivalent dollars, we'll be at 500B-1T for < $2000. That'll be 3-4 Moore's Law doublings since computer prices were sane.

But AI labs are datacenter businesses now with the AI part being the driver. Pivoting to selling AI weights for on-premises hardware is a much bigger change. Given the money tied up in data centers, this will be very tough times.

If you're going to be surveilled 24/7, at least you gotta make it work for you.

Which country are you in where you cant take "call the driver" for granted?

I don't get it.

There was CCTV at the station, your friend arrived in a taxi. And we're supposed to be amazed you can call up the taxi company and quote a numberplate off CCTV ?

Can be done anywhere in the world.

Would have been far more impressive story if she had arrived in a private car, dropped off by a work colleague or something.

No. It was just a thing that happened to me that I thought was funny and interesting, because running to the train police station and asking them to track the didi was not something I'd ever have thought to do.

I'm sorry my little anecdote didn't satisfy you.

It wasn't that. Its that you made a reference to the Chinese surveillance state in the same post. Your example didn't fit the evil-bogeyman narrative.

Sorry if I was unclear there.

What in the world are you talking about. If anything, I wasn't sure if recollecting that anecdote was minimizing the harm of being surveilled constantly. The last thing I expected was being accused of an "evil-bogeyman narrative."

> Sorry if I was unclear there.

Yes, thanks for clarifying. Now I understand that this has nothing to do with me or what I wrote and is 100% projection on your part.

You used the words "If you're going to be surveilled 24/7, at least you gotta make it work for you."

The implication being quite clear you were inferring it was only possible in China's surveillance state, when it was not.

How about we cordially agree to disagree and move on ?

Jesus fucking Christ.

Meanwhile, in the west, the standard of living has been eroding for the majority of the population. Technological progress is associated with layoffs, loss of agency at the workplace, and diminishing life prospects. So, it's no surprise that there is growing opposition to AI.

https://allianceofdemocracies.org/democracy-perception-index

What makes this report interesting is that the organization publishing it was started by an ex-NATO chief and claims to unite democracies, meaning Western liberal style democracies. So it can’t be accused of having some sort of anti-Western bias. Their methodology is also straightforward, where they simply ask people if they feel their government works in their interest and whether they can hold it accountable. That’s the whole ballgame, because if people don’t believe the system is democratic then it inherently lacks legitimacy no matter what the constitution says. While people will surely attack this methodology, the sheer fact that a NATO-connected group published such a report gives its claims a certain credence given how dire these results are for the Western model of democracy. France now ranks alongside Kazakhstan, Yemen, and Zimbabwe in its own citizens’ eyes while the U.S. is split down the middle with about half of Americans saying they don’t think they live in a democracy anymore. China, on the other hand, sits up there with the Scandinavians and Switzerland, and Chinese people overwhelmingly say the system works for them. Notably, we can also see that perceptions of transparency, rule of law, and free speech are on the rise across the board in China.

And before you start trying to claim that people in China are simply afraid to speak their mind, the same report shows Russia at -21 points and Belarus at -9, so that whole excuse falls apart. Turns out that people living in states the West labels as being authoritarian do, in fact, complain when they’re unhappy.

Various other western publications have reported the same thing for many years.

https://www.tbsnews.net/world/china-more-democratic-america-...

https://www.newsweek.com/most-china-call-their-nation-democr...

https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2021/0218/Vilif...

Turns out the US is the place where human rights are actually being suffocated.

Explain the mass uploading of secret screen recordings in more than ten phone brands sold in China in a component called SystemHelper, disclosed in the past few days, including but not limited to Xiaomi, Samsung, OPPO.

Also, read again what I said, 'sold in China'.

Does it hurt so much when your fantasy turns out to be fake?

If you need to be explained why companies like to harvest customer data, then what else is there to say about you.

Second, work on your logic skills before embarrassing yourself in public.

Third, you still have not explained why recording phone screens and uploading the recording without telling the phone owners is not 'suffocating anybody's human rights'.

Perhaps, I shouldn't be so hard on you though. Must be hard to go through life in those clown shoes.

Verrrry thorough in its work and therefore verrrrry slow. It spent a long time with each question, running about 26 queries for each question, and in some questions it ran 64 queries. One of the queries that it wrote also took about an hour to run, which affected its overall exam time.

Last year the open weight models were the cheap & good alternatives. Then in September/October that cost story got rewritten by the GPT-6 series and Claude's 5 series.

Hy4 brings open models back on the cost/accuracy frontier, but its behavior is too thorough + slow.

Another thing we're seeing is that post training open models is starting to see results. Particle-1 from last week is also on our frontier, which is post-trained on DeepSeek V4.1 and Fireworks Ember-1 from a few weeks ago was post-trained on Kimi K3.

Take these numbers with a grain of salt: this exam is just for short horizon, low-context data analysis tasks, not full-fledged software projects.

I like that they acknowledge that. For working with ai as a tool open models are already great. For millennium problems and doomermaxxing they are not there yet.

Is this the kind of quality verbiage I’m missing out on, not using Discord?

but…why did this hit you so hard?

Writing incoherently wastes your time, since you are generating an idiolect that nobody bothers to actually engage with.

Le cordonnier mal chaussé.

> For game development, we partnered with professional developers at Tencent Interactive Entertainment Group (IEG) to curate high-quality training data and build evaluations. We focused on feature implementation, gameplay logic, state tracking, and asset pipelines. We also extensively adapted Hy4 for major engines such as Unreal Engine, Unity, and Godot, and expanded its capabilities to multiplayer game development. Compared with Hy4 preview, Hy4 improves by 19.1% on GameDev and 9.8% on GameLogic.

Here's more about that game development studio - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tencent_Games - they've been around since 2004.

They are the Berkshire Hathaway of everything, to be honest. They invest in and acquire minority stakes in hundreds of companies.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkshire_Hathaway https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tencent

    > we are open-sourcing two foundation models co-developed by Hy4 and Hyra 2.0: HyCell for single-cell representation and HyPDE for physical field modeling.

That's how you get a civilizational advantage. By allowing people to just do things. It's so bizarre to watch China embrace the wonders of science and technology, while certain American startups and communities repeat "WHAT ABOUT THE BIOWEAPONS?"

The American century has been fumbled hard.

> If anyone else got to the nuke first we'd all be dead btw. And thank your lucky stars for D-day.

Eh, I'm reasonably certain it's not altruism. It's another form of competition with the US companies and I'm thankful for it while it lasts.

But also cases like the 2 girls suing Snapchat and settling for unknown amounts of money.

Oh, wait…

It shouldn't be. China is the closest thing to a technocracy the world has.

I wonder how much Covid conspiracy theories play into this. If you've already been accused of making bioweapons, and the world had to shut down for three years because of them, then what's the worst that could happen to you? People accusing you of doing it again? The people that hate you already hate you, they can't really hate you and harder.

Meanwhile, in the fear based economy that America has, OpenAI is running scared of the possiblity of headlines that they helped terrorists or a high school shooter in some way. In the case of rape, we've maybe moved the conversation past "well she shouldn't have been wearing that" to "they shouldn't be raping" but in cases involving AI, we're still at the "well, what was the chatbot wearing?" stage of things.

You need to go deeper into the country to learn what's really there, but of course, the government will do anything to stop you from doing so. So you don't see it anyway.

Technocracy comes with good and bad things. For instance Chinese stop lights now feature refueling stations atop them for autonomous drones to operate indefinitely. But of course those drones will be used for domestic surveillance and other such things. So they're creating 1984, while we create Brazil. [2]

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niang_pao

[2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazil_(1985_film)

The core of the idea is still certain people trying hard to keep their social status, not tech.

When they're engaged in actions that are uplifting the lives of hundreds of millions and making the world an overall better place, I couldn't really care less if there's some grand evil scheme behind the curtain. I'd be rather happy to see a world filled with 'evil' people doing good things, than the current reality we live in filled with 'good' people doing evil things.

We should judge people much more by what they do, instead of by the rhetoric or inferred intent.

And the things you're mentioning are non sequiturs similar to the initial point. China (and the US and most of every major power) is a surveillance state. That has nothing to do with whether or not they are uplifting the lives of people. Uplifting while protecting the privacy of individuals would be ideal, but that's an ideal that unfortunately does not exist anywhere.

The character's name is 老大哥. That is if we are talking about 1984.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html