joshheitzman
joshheitzman on Hacker News
I asked about option contracts not futures contracts. As to futures contracts there are many that are not associated with anything physical (e.g. stock indexes, bitcoin, US treasuries, etc.).
> If states can place restrictions on certain types of speech (eg porn or abortion advocacy)
This is a matter of whether the state laws violate the constitution.
> place restrictions on gamblers within their borders
This is a matter of if state laws have been preempted by federal laws.
Again these two things are not like each other.
Its right there on Kalshi's website:
https://help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823765-how-is-kalshi-r...Congress didn't identify the markets it was regulating by common names or trade names. It doesn't matter if its generally called a prediction market, a commodities market, or a futures exchange. What matters is if it qualifies as a Designated Contract Market as per https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-17/chapter-I/part-38 so if you want to actually have knowledge of what Congress said on this topic your going to have read all of that.
There is already a split decision on this between the 3rd and 9th circuits so it seems likely SCOTUS is going to take this up, so I expect they'll be the ones deciding if this in the domain of the states or not. If they don't pick it up then its going to vary by circuit, such that it will be in the domain of some states and not others.
> I’m not going to allow you to depose me
Then I won't ask you what the difference is between speculation and gambling. Instead I'll just declare myself the winner of this debate.
To fall under the purview of the CFTC does a contract need to be physically settled or be a derivative of a contract this is physically settled?
Yeah so? It is what is at this point.
And the 3rd circuit ruled the opposite. I'd be really surprised if SCOTUS declined to resolve this split between the circuits.
Probably without intending it you've gotten right to the heart of what's at dispute here.
The common language meaning of gambling is too broad and captures things that aren't legally regulated as gambling such as gambling (again common meaning of the word) with futures contracts. Sometimes gambling is dressed up a speculating, but one could argue that one can speculate as a participant in many card games since they allow room for analysis and aren't pure chance. This is what the legal dispute comes down too.
The other is the debate for the value of the truth discovery. Some folks buy it and others don't. SCOTUS will likely take the case to resolve the split between the circuits and we'll if the value of this even enters into the decision or it just comes down interpretation of the statutes.
What's the difference between a Kalshi event contract and a COMEX futures option contract?
One thing is written directly into the constitution the other is not. How are they similar?
Guess who decides whether its commerce or gambling?
I said 'commerce' not 'finance' because finance is just one of many, many things that is within the purview of federal law due the commerce clause.
> And taking on the feds too, that is a gutsy move.
More likely a wasteful move. Federal preemption is well established.
One of the things that comes with experience is more things moving from your personal unknown unknowns bucket to your personal known knowns and known unknowns buckets.
The substance is hard to see through the conflation of CS and software engineering. Do you actually believe that all there is to software engineering is CS fundamentals?
It's notable that you said "out code" not "out engineer".
Steam can absolutely be replaced. There's lots that could be improved in the process of sifting through tens of thousands of games to find the ones I want to play. I have Epic's store installed on my gaming PC as I still play Fortnite. It has none of the things I want improved over the Steam experience. Literally none.
Put up or shut up Epic. I'm unemployed so you can hire me to do it for you, but I'll bet you'd rather just whine about it.
From the comments here I can infer that it has a schema and in turn I can extrapolate that this is as much "for humans" as many other config formats that are deterministically parseable.
A GUI is a config format for humans as it can you show what all of the configuration options are along with text that tells you what they do.
This assumes people don't increasingly let AI make decisions for them.
They've been offshoring as much as they can for decades. The H1-B program hasn't stopped it and if it were eliminated there wouldn't be a huge surge in offshoring. Many companies have already hit the limit on offshoring and had to pull things back onshore.
Speak for yourself. I'm reading these comments and not the blog.
You don't need a full browser or a full HTML implementation. You just need enough HTML support for markdown converted to HTML and wxWidgets has that level of support for HTML backed in. I've never seen an LLM generate HTML without it being explicitly told to do so, so I don't know where this notion comes from that full HTML/CSS/JS support is needed to render LLM text outputs.
I used the wxWidgets C++ GUI for my coding agent (
https://github.com/fluxmoot/fluximp ) not directly in C++ but in Python via wxPython. While wxWidgets doesn't have a full browser level implementation of HTML/CSS/JS it has enough HTML support for rendering markdown converted to HTML just fine. I'd imagine Qt would have no problem with markdown either.
> I actively use all harnesses
Several perhaps, but you definitely aren't using all coding harnesses actively.
Man-month or man-minute doesn't make any difference.
Can you add 27 more coders and cut the app build period down to 25% of what it was?
9 isn't a large number of people and its fairly well agreed on maximum limit for productive team size (the limit can be lower than 9) due to the number of possible communication channels. All that has changed is that a 9 person team can now do more with AI assistance then they could without it.
Not having to build still saves wall clock time. Also Python is a concise language (fewer tokens in context) with a monster ecosystem that avoids a lot of code having to written by agents (fewer tokens for the current task and fewer for future tasks by keeping the code base smaller).
As a counter-example, I use Deepseek v4.1 Flash to make progress on multiple projects (Python, C++, CUDA) every single day.
It is. Harnesses do not need to give LLMs such broad tools like the shell.
Let's bump that sample size to 2. I've observed the same and that observation has heavily influenced the design of my coding agent harness.