You mention Giga Berlin for example. Germany is suffering from the EU energy crisis (which really has been an ongoing thing since around 2008 when the per capita downtrend in energy took hold), so it wouldn't be weird if cars being produced there aren't competitive with Chinese-manufactured goods.
Similarly, US manufacturing doesn't seem to have the same vibrancy as Chinese work and the root causes seem to be environmental and labour law. It is also possible that the US just doesn't have the expertise; as far as I'm aware the US doesn't have an answer to Shenzhen (I'm happy to be told this is just ignorance, the US is a big place, but so far no dice).
I still don't understand why anyone ever thought that was going to happen. Even if the autonomy were there, who was really going to use their car for rideshare when they didn't need it themselves? I know some people thought it would bring them a lot of value, because that's what Elon promised. But the reality would have been a classic race-to-the-bottom, and they'd have been lucky to break even after accounting for wear and tear.
Sure there might be rules and fines but people already do all this when there is real human driving the taxi!
Plus, do you really expect everyone to treat your items with the same respect and care you do? Even little things like slamming the doors or scratching up the seats with metal belts or jean studs.
Yeah maybe Tesla will make it right. But at how much effort? How correct will it be fixed?
I wonder at what price point you would have to offer the average Tesla owner to let someone puke in their car.
Or this Airbnb; https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/alberta-family-home-emptied-tras...
Or maybe it's one of these; https://duckduckgo.com/?q=airbnb+trashed+house&t=fpas&ia=web
I acknowledge the above comment re vomit in car is an edge case, and so are the links I attached. But to suggest this doesn't occur in Airbnb, and wouldn't occur with a car share service is naive.
- Horrible QA (https://www.equinoxevforum.com/threads/cracks-developing-in-...) - Extremely customer-hostile support strategies (https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/08/angry-tesla-cust...) - Absurd cost-cutting measures/temporary bouts of insanity that cripple the UX of their cars: - Why does the Model 3/Y not have steering wheel stalks!? - Why did they try to offer the Model S with only a (bad) yoke!? - Why is there no HUD/gauge cluster on the Model 3/Y!?
I won't even get into just how ugly I (and anecdotally, many of my friends) find the Cybertruck; have you SEEN videos of people trying to actually use it as a truck and it completely failing to function offroad?
All of this stuff is directly attributable to Elon Musk. He's demanding a 25% stake in the company from his board - the same board that was found to be so absurdly stacked in his favor that his last pay package was thrown out.
Shareholders, at this point, should kick this guy out of Tesla and leave him to his true passions: shitposting on Twitter and SpaceX.
* no indicator stalks
* no forward/reverse control
* apparently the automatic rain sensor doesn't work/exist (I think that's always been true; I just learned about it)
It very much reminds me of Apple's backwards steps with magsafe, touchbar and the keyboard. Maybe they'll come to their senses but I dunno...
My Dec 2016 Model S has a "working" automatic rain sensor, it's just not as good as others I've seen. My '04 Audi A8 had a sensor so good that the first time it turned on I didn't know why, but then as I drove under some street lights I realized it had detected some really fine mist.
On the other hand, part of the reason I switched from the Audi to the Tesla was that I had $10k in broken "toys" on the Audi (1 of 2 bluetooth radios, 2 doorhandle auto unlockers, leak in the air suspension, steering wheel adjustment motor, etc), and part of what I wanted in the Tesla was something less expensive maintenance wise. So making more do less (using the cameras for auto wipers) makes sense.
I'd suspect the number of traditional rain sensor failures can probably be counted on one hand.
Tesla replace robust almost zero failure rate parts for cost only.
Only if you define "failure" as stops working. If you define it as not working, then it gives you a 100% failure rate.
The best rain sensor I had was in my old Ford Mondeo '04.
It's all about cost cutting to make EVs cheaper to buy
It was thrown out purely on the grounds that the judge didn't like it. The pay package was approved by Tesla's non-Musk general shareholders.
It was thrown out for technical but super legal reasons stemming from the Board’s lack of independence. Delaware judges don’t get to review pay packages approved by competently-run Boards.
If lack of independence is grounds for annulling the pay package, it's also grounds for annulling every other decision the Board ever approved. (It's the same Board!) That wasn't suggested; the grounds for annulling the pay package are different.
In this case Tesla screwed up at least 3 different standards that are generally biased towards the company against shareholders. Only the last of those 3 standards has anything to do with relative compensation.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-31/elon-m...
Or maybe the whole car could be imported.
You could have a cheap EV in America with a stroke of a pen. Thats kind of the point of the article. I mean maybe not on purpose.
You also have to accept that many people will go out of their way for tax credits, even if they are literally losing money to get it.
It’s almost dimensionally identical to the F-150 and the masculine “look at me” cyberpunk appearance is 100% in line with basically everything about the big three automakers’ trucks’ demographics.
The only thing BYD can do differently is eat up unprofitable markets like the $20,000 econobox EV.
Here in Brazil, EVs basically didn't exist. Only very few Prius were seen around, and I mean very few.
Now, BYD showed up and everywhere you go you see one. Had Tesla been there, the same would have happened. But they chose to not even try (or weren't competent enough to do it).
BYD is doing the same in many other countries. Pretty soon I can see BYD being the main provider of EVs in multiple countries. Tesla had years of advantage and totally missed the opportunity to expand into those markets craving EVs.
People in this thread are focusing a lot of ire at Tesla, but why do none of the other US, European, Japanese or South Korean auto makers make a showing? Why are they all behind not just BYD and Tesla but a bunch of other Chinese companies most people have never heard of? It's easy to blame Elon and his dumb tweets, but China is eating everyone's lunch in EVs, Tesla is notable solely for being in the game and losing while effectively no other auto makers are even in the game.
Literally most of the top 10 EV companies in China are doing more EV sales solely in China than the global EV sales of basically any other company on earth except Tesla (VW gets a big asterisk). A truly incredible failure across "the west".
The other auto makers don't want to switch to EVs (despite the typical PR showing around it). They were not ready for it and are many years behind. They are doing this mostly out of panic because after Tesla, it's clear that there is a market and people actually want them. Now governments are also starting to force transitions (although force is doing a lot of work here given the time frames).
What surprised me the most is BYD being sold here in Brazil, and other developing countries, when there is basically no charging network. Goes to show how the profile of consumers is different. People in the US still complain about range like they will actually travel from NY to LA, meanwhile people here are buying BYD for the luxury/status/aesthetic of it without even giving a second though about range.
My previous prediction was that it would be similar to the US where we'd only have adoption after there was progress in the charging front, but I was thoroughly wrong. People in these countries are more than happy to "sacrifice" in that front for a very expensive good looking car. It's more about the status than anything else since we don't have EV subsidies or anything similar to make it advantageous financially (at least to my knowledge).
I don’t think their success in China is a guarantee anywhere else, even if they are doing well in Brazil (which is not a very important automotive market, representing 1/10th the sales volume of the USA while having less than half of its population).
It’s also important to remember that BYD sells hybrid vehicles. Granted, they ship more pure EVs than Tesla.
I think it’s easy to see why EVs suit China well. There’s no range anxiety when you have more high speed rail than the rest of the world combined. There’s also no long-existing petrol car culture or infrastructure, China is starting from scratch. Many of their EV buyers could be first-time car buyers. Probably close to 100% of car buyers in the West have owned other cars.
From a policy level, oil is an import product for China, and components for EVs are domestic products, so they have an obvious incentive to electrify.
This goes back to my feelings on why the CyberTruck wasn’t a waste of effort: again, it’s competing with the most popular vehicle in the USA in the most profitable vehicle segment on the planet that is entirely protected by the US government from imports (the chicken tax). Financially think the CyberTruck is almost guaranteed success.
There are innovative things to admire about it - interesting steering, non-trucklike-ride, squat to load, covered bed, AC power taps, self-driv^H^H^H^Hsteering/cruise.
There are awful things to endure - lack of dedicated controls for critical stuff, everything on touchscreen in center of car.
I think it's just going to exist and at some point lose its novelty.
The other 50 is that the CEO has surrounded themselves with yes-men to the point of liability. Nobody dared point out the emperor's lack of clothes.
You clearly are not around any of the big three automakers trucks demos if you really believe this shit was ever going to succeed in it.
If you think any current truck owner is at all interested in a cybertruck's design, you are definitely one being bullish on Tesla.
I've owned trucks nearly my entire life and wouldn't touch the thing with a 30-foot pole. Across the various auto enthusiast forums I participate in, it's universally mocked. Among the folks I know that own pickups, everyone else feels the same about its design as I do.
The only people I have heard say that it's not outright ugly are people that are Tesla fanboys and even among those it's generally "it's not that bad".
It is not a "masculine look" - it looks like something someone who can't form sheet metal put together in their garage.
As bad a truck as a 2024 F-150 is in terms of truck-ness, it is still a truck and will perform a baseline number of truck things more or less competently, even if it would get roundhouse kicked by an 2004 F-150 in terms of doing actual work. Or hell, get yourself a Rivian truck if you want. It has a striking design which doesn't utterly ruin it as a truck and is similarly priced to boot.
And, it's worth noting, in the extremely long ramp up for the Cybertruck we're already seeing things like the F-150 Lightning, which incorporates all the benefits of an electric truck, and is sold by an OEM that actually does QA and sells via standard dealerships, and just looks like a normal ass truck while inheriting all the pluses of that fact (the ability to hold a bicycle, for example). Like, unless you are just 100% irrevocably sold on the looks of the Cybertruck, I cannot fathom why you would spend ballpark 30% more on a less-capable vehicle.
And if you just want a status symbol, the electric Hummer IMO absolutely demolishes the Cybertruck in terms of aesthetics while also being a vastly superior vehicle and is ALSO coming from a reputable, well established brand.
TL;DR: The Cybertruck took so goddamn long to actually become available that it's disappointing launch version is already getting lapped by competitors who are selling comparative machines for lower prices that are more capable and look better, and don't come with the baggage, political and otherwise, that the Tesla brand increasingly brings.
The Cybertruck bed is a full 6 foot bed. It’s got a liner, it’s got tie-downs, it is a real truck bed. It is practically an F-150 clone in packaging and sizing.
The Cybertruck took almost exactly 4 years between concept reveal and shipping which is totally reasonable for the auto industry. Just ignore the Peter Molyneux-like promises of Elon Musk and it’s a totally normal car launch timeline.
Off-road deficiencies are all over the place with EVs because they’re heavy. No other brand is going to defy physics.
Cybertruck competitors in the same price range you can order are the F-150 and the Rivian R1T. The Rivian base model is $10k more and the F-150 base model is stripped down, you get things like manual adjusted seats. But hey, it is cheaper at the same range.
The mid-tier Rivian is basically the same price as the Cybertruck mid range. The one deficiency with is at the high end where Rivian offers more range, but that’s also a getting to be a very expensive truck.
The Hummer is not even in the same class of vehicle. It’s a 5 foot bed truck. If you’re going to point fingers at electric trucks that aren’t usable work trucks, that’s the one. It’s also starting at $100k. Not in the same price class at all.
Putting the feelings about Elon aside I’m just calling it like I see it here: Tesla is competing in a market which is highly lucrative, is very high volume, and they have some legitimate advantages like charging network and software that competitors can’t match. Heck, they’ve even got a reliability advantage over Rivian (Consumer Reports).
Ford and GM gaining access to their charging network this year. I always hear how their software is an advantage, but how? At point I feel like people just say Tesla software is “better” without having actually compared it to anything else because I’ve yet to run into a situation where it seems better to me.
The length and width aren't the only concern: the tapered-off roof bit that goes to either side of the bed means you can't put anything in the bed that's wider than the bed on either side, and if you've used a truck before for, for example, landscaping: a common way to use it is to park it near your work area where you're, I dunno, tearing some brush down or something, and chuck shit into the bed as you work. With my F-150, I raise my bed cover up which keeps my rear-cab glass safe, and I can now load this easily from all three directions to the rear: this can't be done with a Cybertruck, without risking damage to the bodywork that's (stupidly) over the edge of the bed.
It's basically the same issue the 04 Silverado had with those stupid plastic bits they put behind the cab, except on the Cybertruck, it isn't shitty plastic you can break off and be done with it: it's part of the paneling.
> The Cybertruck took almost exactly 4 years between concept reveal and shipping which is totally reasonable for the auto industry. Just ignore the Peter Molyneux-like promises of Elon Musk and it’s a totally normal car launch timeline.
Yes, and quite smartly, GM shut up about the Hummer until it was ready.
> Off-road deficiencies are all over the place with EVs because they’re heavy. No other brand is going to defy physics.
The electric F-150 is a much, much more capable off road vehicle. I think the trick is designing a vehicle to do a thing and then make it look nice, versus designing it to look neat and then trying to figure out how to make it do things.
> The mid-tier Rivian is basically the same price as the Cybertruck mid range. The one deficiency with is at the high end where Rivian offers more range, but that’s also a getting to be a very expensive truck.
Yes, and again, the F-150 and Rivian are suitable for use as a truck where the Cybertruck isn't. That's my point. And again, if you don't actually want a truck, just an expensive SUV, that's where I think the Hummer is actually superior to the Cybertruck. Haven't heard about a Hummer rusting 5 days after delivery yet.
> The Hummer is not even in the same class of vehicle. It’s a 5 foot bed truck. If you’re going to point fingers at electric trucks that aren’t usable work trucks, that’s the one. It’s also starting at $100k. Not in the same price class at all.
Which is why I brought it up as an option, because I genuinely cannot fathom someone who wants a work truck buying one of these stupid cybertrucks. They're even worse than modern trucks are on every axis and are also expensive as shit.
> Tesla is competing in a market which is highly lucrative, is very high volume, and they have some legitimate advantages like charging network and software that competitors can’t match.
Worth noting that a ton of the market for trucks is in fleet vehicles, which Tesla just... cannot do. They can't move the volume enough for, for example, a telecom company that needs a fleet of trucks for servicing their network. And no sane teleco is dropping $65k per truck for service fleet business.
And again, they're shit trucks.
I think Tesla is playing up moving into the truck space but what it really is, if we're being honest, is a luxury SUV. A weekend toy for wealthier families, that's just what it is, not judging. My F-150 is largely a toy itself, I use it for light yard work but it also has 22" rims and SUV tires because I don't do anything harder than grass with it. I'm just honest with myself when I say mine is a toy, and that's fine.
And that's what the Cybertruck is, and it's not going to do volume for that exact reason, and I think it's also going to struggle as a luxury SUV too because, frankly, it's hideous and the Tesla brand doesn't swing like it used to in the minds of consumers.
https://www.avantauk.com/top-14-largest-warehouses-in-the-wo...
Full Self Driving but really lane keeping assist L2
Mother of all factories but really 30% of mother
Vacuum-sealed underground tubes capable of moving people en mass at high speed but really a 15mph underground paved road for Tesla cars
Linear growth of battery density but stuck on same chemistry
Used to have radar but now disabled on cars that have it because vision is like the human eye don’t need anything else
Or maybe your point is "Tesla is not helped by its government as much as BYD is"? Which could be a fair point.
Model 3: 186″ L x 73″ W x 57″ H
Accord: 196″ L x 73″ W x 57″ H
Civic: 179-184″ L x 71″ W x 56″ H
BMW 4 series: 188-189″ L x 73″ W x 55-57″ H
BMW 3 series: 186” 72” 57”
I have a garage where that extra inch or two of width is really important.
I wonder why a CEO lying to pump his stock is not yet illegal. Otherwise what's topping Sundar to come out and say "Google will have AGI in 6 months, buy Alphabet stonks wink-wink".
> And it worked.
I know, because a couple of my friends put all their saving in TSLA stocks during the pandemic. And all it cost Elon was his credibility and being exposed as a clueless liar to the point if he'd say the sky is blue, I'd double check.
BYD is the primary battery supplier for most consumer electronics (you're iPhone or Macbook is using a BYD battery for example).
Tesla doesn't have an "AWS" equivalent to subsidize it's automotive division, as the Solar+Grid Battery+Battery Management Systems divisions have much lower margins and higher upfront cost.
Hey, do you have a source for this? I am trying to find this information online but I am failing to find, but it sounds super plausible. In their own website there's not much information other than their batteries are used in other things besides cars - link to the site below
https://www.bydglobal.com/cn/en/BYD_ENProductAndSolutions/Ne...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/BYD_Company
Somehow it wasn't in theit Wikipedia either - it mentions briefly something about batteries for common electronics but doesn't details or mentioned Apple. Anyway, thanks for the source!!!
Most Chinese corporate information isn't going to be found on English Wikipedia tbh.
It's an insular industry and most OEMs and VARs are Taiwanese, Chinese, Singaporean, Thai, or Malaysian so Mandarin is the preferred language as they're all owned by the SEA Chinese diaspora
I've grown up reading business news/trade news in the tech industry since I was a kid, my dad was in the industry, and I am as well, so all these names are common to me.
All I can say is any long read business news you see in NYT or WSJ is 3-5 year behind trends.
If it made it to either, it's already at the 4th-5th part of the Gartner Hype Cycle (which itself deserves a hype cycle)
That bad?
Sounds like a business opportunity ...
Yep, right, mainstream press is always behind. Then the TV guys bring up the rear ...
Wouldn't the SEA Chinese diaspora be more likely to speak Hokkien? Or maybe Cantonese?
The Apple's supply chain is very complex, and we don't know the exact number of supply percentage, do we?
I don't think Tesla really hired any battery engineers or R&D either come to think of it.
If they did, they would have had an R&D office in Japan or SK who are leaders in Battery Chemistry but I don't think they have a presence there at all.
Most likely Tesla and Panasonic are co-sharing IP with Tesla taking a lead on Battery Management Software (a very hard problem) and Panasonic on Battery Manufacturing and Efficiency (an equally hard problem)
Panasonic now has another cell factory in North America, in DeSoto, Kansas. This time, Tesla is not the landlord.
A "cell" is a single unit device, and a "battery" is a group of connected cells. Panasonic makes cylindrical cells in standard dimensions. Others assemble the cells into into battery packs. Much of the rechargable battery industry works like that. Plants that make cells are mostly chemical plants, and some of the chemicals are corrosive, toxic, and flammable. Once the chemicals have been canned into a neat little metal can, assembly into packs is a routine manufacturing operation.
It's possible to make integrated batteries. Classic 12 volt lead-acid auto batteries have six cells, producing 2 volts each. BYD is heavily into integrated batteries, with their "blade" technology. There are lots of things that can go wrong in integrated battery manufacturing, but if the process can be debugged, the density is higher and the cost is probably lower.
Apple and BYD had a contract dispute around 2015-17 [0] though it ended up getting dismissed by the USDCNDC, but CATL was always targeting the Power Electronics space like Siemens and Hitachi while BYD cornered the rechargeable battery market by 2010 when Berkshire Hathaway and Samsung took a minority stake in them
[0] - https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/USCOURTS-cand-3_15-cv-04...
Do you have a blog?
The truth is that China has, through government decision, created a full supply chain for EV production, mirroring their success in other areas. The US is several years behind them. Tesla can invest the money in the US to catch up, but it will be very costly, so probably they won't be able to do what you wish.
Vehicles in china there don't have to be nearly as safe (for better or worse) and range anxiety is less of an issue for many of the residents, thus the tiny Electric vehicles we see that sometimes can't go over 25-35MPH (I think one or two may have even used lead batteies, practically adult sized power-wheels...)
Additionally, BYD had the advantage of being in the LiFePO and mass manufacturing game very early. I remember seeing their booth at the Detroit Auto Show back in... 2008-2010ish? and they had a couple of vehicles out for display. However it became seemed clear they were more interested in showing off battery tech to others and the vehicles in a way felt presented like 'Reference Boards'.
Other countries could do the same thing or punish China for it via tariffs etc., but doing nothing seems like a bad idea.
US government has done as much as it can to protect ICE cars, ICE workers, ICE unions, oil companies (US is #1 oil producing country).
I think what you're trying to say is that Chin has done a better job subsidizing its EV industry than the US has and China has more incentives to move towards an EV future.
For EVs generally regardless of where the carmaker is headquartered.
> US governments have bailed out automakers in the past.
And were justly criticized for it even domestically.
> US government has done as much as it can to protect ICE cars, ICE workers, ICE unions, oil companies (US is #1 oil producing country).
Whataboutism. Two wrongs don't make a right.
> I think what you're trying to say is that Chin has done a better job subsidizing its EV industry than the US has and China has more incentives to move towards an EV future.
EV incentives work similar to what the US has. You buy an EV and you get a tax credit, regardless of whether it's from GM or Hyundai. Cheating is when the subsidies are only available to domestic companies.
Sprinkle in the various reliability issues that have come up recently (regardless of whether they are better or worse than what happens to ICE vehicles)...
Oh, Also, Kinda wondering what's happened to Kia/Hyundai's EV sales due to public perception, I still see probably as many of their EV's as I do GM[0]
[0] It's around this order, not counting plug-in hybrids and M-Plates[1]: Tesla, Ford, Hyundai/GM, Rivian, Polestar, BMW/VW
[1] M-Plate is a "Manufacturer's" License plate. Not all states have them, but mine does and due to where I run into a lot of them. Since they range between prototypes and 'company car' they don't count in the ranking.
The ID4 we got is very comfortable to drive around in, but doing a road trip in Winter feels out of the question. Not that it'd be completely impossible, mind, but I'm pretty confident it'd be a pain in the ass. We'd need to stop more frequently than in our CRV, for a longer period of time each time, and the whole situation with electric car chargers are that sometimes they're broken or working worse than expected, or they're all taken (and it takes way long for a spot to be freed up than at a gas station), or there's problems with the software running the charger, etc.
It'd also be nice if it charged faster and had more range too; it's not terrible on those metrics, but I wouldn't say it's great. Certainly not comparable at all to gas cars.
But yes, I'm aware that Tesla has the charger situation handled much better.
If it showed me the road behind me, for example, that would be super useful for lane changing. But it doesn’t.
I have never once been able to work out what it does, and would love to see the map take up the whole screen, or maybe a list of route instructions could go there.
I also noticed that the “full self driving preview” option seems to have disappeared (it never worked anyway, guessing it’s because we drive on the left)
There is probably a "it looks cool" factor that doesn't hurt.
As far as UX options. Providing customization is old-school thinking these days :/
Pretty much though what the other commentor said - to give a visualization into the self driving for the user.
When traffic cones and street signs were added to Autopilot - you can bet that visualization was updated to show it off.
Same when they added stop light detection.
It makes sense to me. For some, that visualization literally _is_ the AI, for all they know.
I have the screen dimmed right down. You can also choose dark mode.
I think Tesla needs better salespeople, there's a lot of things that I found out after purchase that makes me like it more.
It might sound minor, but that visualization is on the part of the screen close to the steering wheel 100% of the time you're driving. If it's distracting to you, it'll be distracting any time you're driving, and you can't turn it off.
It's like a running shoe that comes with a pebble permanently stuck inside.
Different from the EU Superchargers, which I believe do offer standard CCS?
1) Tesla needs to open up superchargers to other cars. They're doing this at scale now, but generally only the less popular ones, or if they're required to do so by government grants. So many key sites are still off limits to others.
2) In the US only, other car manufacturers need to adopt Tesla's NACS charging standard, so they can physically connect to superchargers. (In the rest of world, everybody including Tesla is already standardized on CCS2.)
The anxious feeling about “will the charger work/will there be a space” is real, but the more EVs are out there, the less this is going to be a problem.
My petrol car could have done the trip without refuelling, but it would also have cost, literally, 5x the cost of charging in fuel.
If you drive a tesla, a supercharger stall is usually available. No other kind of chargers I found either work, or are compatible with my tesla.
But it would be nice to be able to road trip more easily, and 100% this is an important factor in a lot of people's decisions, even if road tripping is something they do only infrequently.
It’s very common for Americans to drive long distances to visit family for holidays.
[0]: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/12/24/upshot/24up-f...
[1]: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/05/18/more-than...
Winter does NOT like EVs...
now that i have an EV and no place at home to charge it (like tens of millions of other Americans) and have to use public infrastructure...
its crap. its just utter crap. yes 90% of trips are not road trips but people do not want to buy a car that can do 90% of what they want any more than they would buy shoes or clothes that only work 90 percent of the time. (and imagine if you could only buy one pair of shoes or one shirt).
There isn't really any data backing up this claim.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/e...
Planes are much popular and this data seems to include commuters so the proportion of people travelling medium to long distances by train is much lower (and most medium/intercity travel is obviously usually done by car and not trains..)
Amongst other significant issues (e.g. cross border travel) high-speed trains tend to be quite expensive, so unless you're travelling alone a car is usually cheaper.
https://www.ryanair.com/gb/en/lp/promotion/getaways
That page shows me flights to Bulgaria, France and Italy for around €25.
It is more like €50 if you aren't flexible, and more again if you need business-friendly times.
Ryanair fly to the primary airport in eastern and southern Europe. I'll take a direct Copenhagen to Sofia flight rather than enjoy changing with Lufthansa.
I feel like the premise of a train is that it costs less than a plane and uses less fuel per passenger, so it should be slower but have the countervailing advantage of being less expensive. That is not what I'm observing.
History shows that no company ever was as superior to its competition as it may seem at their height. Shit's hard yo.
The media has never been a "source of truth" at the best they act as watchdogs, at the worst they are propaganda. You can still find answers for yourself but good information has a time cost.
Tesla's have deep discounts, suggesting a decline in demand. The end. Inventory is harder because they lack dealerships, but it doesn't seem difficult to find a Model3/ModelY right now at all.
-------
For other EVs like Ford Mustang MachE, days of inventory are rising and prices are declining as well as incentives.
It's not just Tesla, it's a wide group of EVs that were overproduced.
https://caredge.com/guides/fastest-and-slowest-selling-cars-...
Go browse some stats yourself.
You've got it backwards. Recessions cause rate-drops.
> Try to sell an expensive car on a loan with eye watering APR of, say 10-12%. This did actually happen in the past, and could very well happen again.
Rate-hikes cause us to lose demand. Yes. But we can see that Toyota demand remains strong with less than 30-days-of-inventory on the average.
So the rate-hikes from the current Fed plan are causing expensive cars (like EVs) to lose demand, while cheaper, more-reliable ICE / Hybrid cars from Toyota are selling like hotcakes.
Yes, I'm watching interest rates and am trying to understand how our economy shifts because of them. But at this base level, EVs are doing worse (and the stats prove it), while cheaper cars (namely ICE/Hybrids) are doing far better right now than anyone expected.
I said: recessions cause rate-drops. Which has always been true. Rate-drops don't always cure recessions, but its one of the first moves a central bank will make to try to fix a recession.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
That's 2020, 2007, 2000, 1990, 1981, 1979 where a recession immediately caused a rate-drop.
We have to go all the way back to 1974 before we had inflation so high that the central bank kept rates high even during a recession. (Dropping rates causes inflation, so its a balancing act). Even then, interest rates dropped to bring us out of the recession of 1974.
After that, we have 1969, 1959, and 1957 recessions, all three of which caused interest rates to drop.
So 9/10 times, a recession caused an immediate drop in interest rates. And the last 1 time (1974), the recession _eventually_ caused the bankers to drop rates.
> Consider as well the cost of “printing money” if the rate reaches double digits, and the cost of refinancing the existing debt load.
You've got it backwards. Increases rates destroy money. Lower-rates print money.
That's why the central bank lowers rates during recessions, its an indirect way to print money (or perhaps more accurately, expand M2).
Raising rates, like what we're doing today, destroys money (or more accurately, contracts M2). We're destroying money today with 5%+ interest rates because we've seemingly made too much in the 2020 recession / COVID19.
> Price: The 2022 Tesla Model Y starts at $64,990. A Model Y Performance model starts at $67,990. Fully loaded, a Performance model can exceed $80,000.
Is there any other car, EV or otherwise, that is seeing a 33%+ decline in price over the last two years?
Other EVs are seeing deep shadow-discounts. I'm seeing 0% or 1.9% APY financing, which comes out to a few $x,000 savings over the term of the loans. Its an interesting trick to reduce prices without changing the MSRP, but I'm perfectly aware of these games.
Still, no one is doing the depth of discounts like Tesla is doing right now. Granted, all EV makers (Ford F150 Lightning, Subaru Solterra, etc. etc.) have discounts of some kind, or at least financing-1.9% or other "shadow discounts". But nothing on the level of wtf 30%+ declines like Tesla.
The Model 3 price is down ~25% year over year:
https://www.kbb.com/tesla/model-3/2023/ (Long Range MSRP $45,990)
https://www.kbb.com/tesla/model-3/2022/ (Long Range MSRP $57,190)
But that's still higher than its release price in 2017:
https://www.kbb.com/tesla/model-3/2017/ (Long Range MSRP $45,200)
And the "target price" for this thing was supposed to be $30,000.
It's hard to do the same comparison for the Model Y because it was originally released in the middle of the COVID supply chain problems, but notice that the year you're using was the high water mark. The Model Y Performance was $69,190 in 2022 but $61,190 in 2021:
https://www.kbb.com/tesla/model-y/2021/
2022 - 2023 was -32% but 2021 - 2023 was only -16.5%, which itself presumably had some of the supply chain issues priced into it.
Many things can be measured. And unemployment is measuring something but not what it's titled suggests. It's measuring some group of people who qualify as looking for work within a specific timeframe. Someone looking for work for a few years is deemed to employed by this calculation some might question it.
Changing the definition of a recession is political.
That doesn't mean measurements are incorrect and prediction is impossible.
Sorry, I'm not spending 100k on a vehicle.
So I ended up getting a Palisade for around 32k, and my wife and I share that, at least until until better (and cheaper) EV options appear.
Luckily I can use my ebike for most of my around town travel, and that is way less of a carbon footprint than adding an extra vehicle to the roads.
It's more likely EV sales are driven by cost. They have always been more expensive than ICE cars, so they only eaten into the luxury market up until now so the rises you see are increasingly bigger bites out of the luxury market. But the primary cost is batteries, and a blip during COVID aside the cost of batteries has dropped every year. EV are approaching the cost of ICE cars now, if you include a bit of hand waving about maintenance costs.
Once they cross cost threshold and drop below the cost of ICE cars, that quadratic curve will go exponential for a while. Chargers will spring up like weeds, because you can make money out of them and they cost far, far less to build and run than a gas station.
The car I am benchmarking against is the Mazda CX-5. The natural equivalent is the Model Y.
The CX-5 is a fully mature platform and is an excellent example of a solid ICE vehicle.
Mazda CX-5 Cost: $29,300 (possible out the door price ~35K)
Model Y cost: Demo vehicle out the door price is ~41K
My upper bound price is 35K and im seriously exploring used given Mazdas reliability so I can save myself ~10K for a recent model year.
I cant do the same on the Model Y because of Tesla's poor quality reputation. Either I am stuck taking a massive risk on a used Model Y or I am priced out of the market. Repair costs on the Model Y are insane.
This is not including the fact that the Insurance cost on a Model Y is almost double that of a CX-5 for me. (970$/yr vs 1700$/year)
Now I have also considered other EVs but none provide an equivalent to what the CX-5 offers.
Theres the used Mach-E market but I have concerns about reliability and given the whole issue with the contactors and how Ford handled it, I don't think this car will last long term. OK, lets ignore that issue, you still get a bad looking car that gives poor value for the price you have to pay (I can only buy used and it is still on the upper bound of what my budget is)
There is the Chevy Bolt EUV. Good insurance, easily within my price range but I am giving up everything else. Terrible charging speeds (made worse because I dont have supercharger access), not really a crossover, terrible looks, not as comfortable as CX-5.
This is just my anecdote but there has got to be many others who have made the same conclusion as me about EVs. You have to compromise in at least one of the following areas with every EV: Price, looks, comfort, value
When you are risking so much money on the line, it becomes difficult to ignore all these signals.
While I could afford the monthly payment on a $41k car, I would never do that when I would be starting my comparison with a $16k Nissan Versa.
Then on top of that, there are many who would be starting with a Nissan Versa because they simply can't afford an EV even if they wanted to.
EV discussion always ends up being what the best espresso maker is when a huge % of the population is just going to buy the cheapest coffee maker they can because they are too broke to buy much else.
[1]:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2wHh6sduVw
The last car I owned (Mazda3) lasted me 10 years and cost me 6k (I bought it at 60K miles)
The CX-5 is what I consider a stretch purchase. I can easily afford it but after working 15 years I feel like I wanted to get something I consider upscale.
Really wish more EVs were in this price range but if you include the nonsense that Tesla does with repair costs, the fact that even in 2024 it is still up in the air whether or not they can consistently build a reliable car, and all the other OEMs just messing around with bad designs, the state of EVs is pretty poor. :/
Like I mentioned in my previous post: This isn't a situation where ICE cars are so horridly bad that most people's day to day lives are made worse. You could maybe say that for some EVs though. People are quite happy with their ICE cars, and EV makers need to not only overcome all the issues that they have, they also need to overcome this friction to switching.
If we had used subsidies to undercut gas powered cars we would be much further along than subsidizing expensive status symbols for people who have to always have the latest iphone.
Of course, demand was going to slow from that market from saturation.
The same reason I use an android and so do a 130 million other Americans. I am cost conscious and I will never pay more for an EV if I can pay less for a gas powered car.
The main problem IMO is the groups making these decisions all have the latest iphone at the margin. "No one wants an android" besides for nearly half the population that shop based on price.
"We kind of dug our own grave with the Cybertruck. It is going to require immense work to reach volume production and be cash flow positive at a price that people can afford. It will take a year to 18 months before it is a significant cash flow contributor."
I remember EV's penetration is super high there.
Very cool link to see the imports!
I was questioning availability of the cars, because I think this is the key issue for BYD.
I wouldn't want to buy a car where you cannot get support.
In Estonia for example, Tesla's are not very popular for that reason, because for a long time, you couldn't even buy them from the official website (so you had to go through gray imports and drive to Finland for the routine maintenance), it's somewhat better now.
But BYD is simply unreasonably difficult to purchase, and if you do, then just doing a routine maintenance (or if you have an accident) sounds much more difficult than Tesla.
Once they solve that distribution problem (and don't get under political sanctions), I think they can be really great cars.
That's the problem, I believe BYD will be sanctioned to hell in Europe (not to mention USA). They will, however, easily dominate on BRICS and other places outside rich western countries.
We ended up with a Renault Megane e-Tech[1], very pleased with it so far. Our garage was built for 1970s cars and can't fit the new monsters, so choice was limited.
[1]: https://www.renault.co.uk/electric-vehicles/megane-electric....
Also, legendary hilux has solid reliability in brutal conditions (thats why every isis in desert has them, ideally with some gun or rockets mounted in the back). No way some early 1st generation of much more expensive electric car will match that. You want to have that safety of lugging around additional fuel tank or two in jerrycans and refuel in a minute, instead of doing additional mental gymnastic re chargers.
So a bad civilian car, and farmers are very price sensitive so not a great choice for them (now).
For instance, tesla went through several varieties of battery chemistry in the early days of the S before landing on the setup they ended up sticking with for the model 100 and later models.
The CT is a similar low volume prototype of the maxwell technology dry cell battery stuff, 48 volt and "drive by wire" architecture that is 100% novel. They're really better off just selling it to a smaller number of people until they get the bugs worked out. The stainless steel stuff is cute but not the hard part of the CT.
having said that, the lessons they learnt and technology they developed while building that white whale are massively valuable.
The gigapress alone is damned impressive.
Particularly if you are taking market share from your (higher margin) competitor. If you can sell two cars at half the margin, that can be better than one car at double the margin if your competitor got the other sale, assuming your strategy is to take the market (i.e. wipe out your competitor).
High margins tend to be hard to defend in the long run (without building a moat).
Tesla strategy is to have huge factories, not many factories. They are not only building Giga Mexica. There is currently expansion of Berlin and Texas.
In addition to that they have many other things and locations. Such as their own lithium refinement. Battery materials factory in Austin and stuff like that.
> All that while Tesla seems to have lots cash at hand, so why don't they expand more aggressively?
As Musk has pointed out, the real limit isn't money but the ability to hire experts and to manage all these complex projects.
By stuff Tesla and Musk have said, they are expecting slowing sales growth, but part of that is also because they said they are developing a new car. But other comments have just been standard demand and competition.
So is it just they don't think it's a good idea to keep expanding at past pace into uncertainty while hurdle rates got much higher?
In good faith he probably assumed that the above post implied that Tesla was in some way leading other manufacturers, rather than Tesla having the single best selling model while massively underperforming in sales compared to other manufacturers that have had the bright idea of offering many different models of car.
Anyway, Tesla's numbers do not separate Model 3/Y, and they ballpaked $1.2
Pickup trucks aren't cars so that is perfectly reasonable.
Damn right, and SUV's, Cyber"Truck"'s, Pickup's, Toorak Tractors, etc. aren't trucks save for north america.
George Miller famously made a serious of documentaries about car drivers that chase trucks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kt7trqrPYX4
It's not like Tesla's subsidies have been small, but BYD's have been enormous.
If you look at the production targets for F150 lightning, the total sales this year will be higher than CT. If you look at the sales/price bell curve of light trucks (note this is inclusive of SUVs, but Trucks make up at least half the dataset), you see a massive amount of area in the $40 -50K range, the over $70K range makes up less than 5%. https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_artic...
In other words, Cybertruck sales numbers are going to hurt until the price is closer to announcement - A $39K Cyber Truck could (theoretically) sell millions based on category alone. a $100K truck could sell tens of thousands.