Banned in the USA. Only.
There is a big wide world out there, and much of it is pivoting to China
Grumpy temper tantrums, on the part of the USA, will speed up the pivot.
Not to mention it'd defeat the whole purpose of a "free market" economy. (Not that that means much of anything anymore)
I don't think all of that is a bad thing (regulation tends to make it harder to do the first two things), but "free markets" are the economic equivalent to the "point mass" in physics: perhaps useful sometimes to create simple models and explanations of things, but will never exist in the real world.
But restricting the trade in micro chips only because the USA is afraid it will loose a technical and commercial edge is a long long way from a free market.
It is too late, too. China has broken out and they are ahead in many fields. Not trading chips with them will make them build their own foundries. In two decades they will be as far ahead there as they are in many other fields.
If the USA would trade then the technological capacities of China and the USA would stay matched, as they help each other. China ahead in some areas, the USA ahead in others.
That would still (probably) not be a pure Free Market but it would be a freer market, and better for everybody except a few elites (on both sides)
Madness is taking root
What's funny is that people have been saying this since OpenCL was announced but today we're actually in a worse spot than we were 10 years ago. China too - their inability to replicate EULV advancements has left their lithography in a terrible place.
There's a reason China is literally dependent on Nvidia for competitive hardware. It's their window into export-controlled TSMC wafers and complex streaming multiprocessor designs. Losing access to Nvidia hardware isn't an option for them (or the United States for that matter) which is why the US pushes so hard for export controls. There is no alternative.
Is it? Time will tell, but it wasn't "different" even during the crypto craze when CUDA was literally printing money. We were promised world-changing ASICs just like with Cereberas and Groq, and ended up with nothing in the end.
When AI's popularity blows over (and it will, like crypto), will the market have responded fast enough? From where I'm standing, it looks like every major manufacturer (and even the Chinese market) is trying the ASIC route again. And having watched ASICs die a very painful and unsatisfying death in the mining pools, I'd like to avoid manufacturing purpose-made ICs that are obsolete within months. I'm simply not seeing the sort of large-scale strategy that threatens Nvidia's actual demand.
Crypto mining was just about hash rates, so I don't think it really mattered whether you used CUDA or not. Nvidia cards were just faster usually. People did use AMD too, but that didn't involve creating a full competitor to CUDA. They do also use ASICs for BTC in particular, I don't think that died.
Every LLM provider in the US will be using it to lower OpEx.
One of them is likely to pass those savings along to consumers to gain market share.
Facebook is in the business of providing weights for free.
The idea that we are all doomed unless we immediately migrate to DeepSeek is fantasy.
The US government has the wherewithal to drag Europe along with it, like they did with Huawei's 5G equipment.
Besides, it's kinda too late for this. The model is freely accessible, so any attempt at banning it would be _completely_ moot. If DeepSeek keeps releasing their future models for free, I don't see how a ban could ever be effective at all. Worse case scenario, big tech can't use those models... but then individuals (and startups willing to go fast and break laws) will be able to use them and instantly get a leg up on the competition.
If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful.
If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful.
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4835388-brazil-pre...
Lula is no friend of democracy.
Our Prime Minister has multiple scandals worse than anything Trump has done so far... From groping a reporter to multiple instances of blackface to firing the attorney general because she investigated a company who gave bribes to Moammar Gaddafi to nearly a billion dollars going to a 2 person software consulting firm to fake charities giving him and his family members millions of dollars and much more. Yet somehow we're held up as an example of democracy and the US, which defends democracy all over the world somehow isn't...
Trump has already done quite a few crazy things since his inauguration. And I'm judging that by what I'm hearing from people who are directly affected by his actions, not by what I'm hearing from the media.
Yet you did not mention one single thing. The thread to which you replied did.
Not really.
> get us out of the Paris accord when the world is rapidly heating up
Is anyone on pace to meet those targets? Canada isn't.
> try to put RFK Jr, a vaccine denier, in charge of our health,
Our health minister is a random politician who took poly sci and history...
> rename the goddamn Gulf of Mexico
Things get renamed all the time... It's not crazy.
> people born on American soil are not necessarily Americans anymore
Jus soli is the exception in the world and in history. For example, every European country has jus sanguinis...
> launch hourly raids to deport people
Enforcing laws is the normal state of affairs in the world...
> many of whom are actually American citizens?
I doubt this one, got any proof?
Canada's civil society collapsing does not mean that the USA's civil society is not. Perhaps they both are?
I think that the social fabric in both countries can take the punishment for a decade or two. It will be some time before they collapse.
The only thing I find crazy about the US right now is the media reaction.
Defending borders? Jus sanguinis? Only 2 genders? Cutting spending? Tariffs? Literally so normal it's boring.
If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful.
If that explanation doesn't land, there are other site guidelines which maybe make the point more directly, such as "Don't be snarky", "Edit out swipes", and/or "Omit internet tropes".
India, one of the poorest countries by per capita GDP met its target before deadline. Better than looking at others, US need to ensure that it meets its own targets. Because its the sole super power and at an international level without US leading sustainability, there is no hope for the rest of us.
I think it would do no harm to know that the Earth had a glaciar era (at least, I am not sure it was more than one), 10 times more carbon dioxide than now at some point and that weather always changed in history. All without humans being involved. Do not take as facts the propaganda of "it is humans and only humans who are making the temperature change".
If I am not wrong the greenhouse gas for carbon dioxide is a small percentage (I do not remember if it was 3%, from which only a fraction is generated by humans). The water vapor (which is a greenhouse gas also) accounts for like 90% or more, by the effect of the sun in the water, and noone talks about this in the media. Also, the most catastrophic models are usually chosen instead of other alternative models.
There are also multiple reports of how data was deliberately hidden or manipulated: https://www.libertaddigital.com/ciencia/que-es-el-watergate-... (in spanish, some evidence of manipulation about the climate change, which was conveniently renamed from "Global warming" at some point, bc in the last 20 years there has been no such "global warming"). I think there was a record in the mass of ice registered in Antartica in year 2017 if I am not wrong...
Smells really bad all this story at this point, to be honest.
"Democracy and liberalism" are merely shorthand for a neofeudal rent-seeking oligarchy that disguises itself with parliamentary forms. As Huxley predicted in 1958:
>the democracies will change their nature; the quaint old forms -- elections, parliaments, Supreme Courts and all the rest -- will remain. The underlying substance will be a new kind of non-violent totalitarianism. All the traditional names, all the hallowed slogans will remain exactly what they were in the good old days. Democracy and freedom will be the theme of every broadcast and editorial -- but democracy and freedom in a strictly Pickwickian sense. Meanwhile the ruling oligarchy and its highly trained elite of soldiers, policemen, thought-manufacturers and mind-manipulators will quietly run the show as they see fit.
Meanwhile our ruling class has completely exhausted its moral authority and delegitimized its own political formula: of popular sovereignty, rules-based order, human rights, and so on. The mask is off and no one can take these sacred oaths seriously any more.
THAT is why the world is pivoting to China. That, and the fact that China does not impose as a precondition of lending and trade that you upend your social/sexual norms and/or demographically transform your country through mass immigration. China simply offers a better deal.
Considering fresh signs of rupture in transatlantic relations, maybe Orban will turn out to have had keen foresight. There seems to be some sort of realignment afoot under the Trump administration.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_visits_by_Viktor_Orb%C3%A...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Hungary_relation...
I see what you mean. But there is an alternative point of view.
The indigenous people of Taiwan are very different. DNA wise they are the prototypical polynesians
We arent talking about those indigenous people regarding this topic. We are talking about the Chinese people there. This would be clear and obvious if Confederates were in any of the examples I gave. All 3 examples have indigenous people now who aren’t cared about now.
Americans were still actively cleansing Native Americans under 200 years ago. The only country that would do anything serious about an attempt at Chinese reunification would be America [and of course NATO and Europe but if America wasn’t doing anything, Europe wouldn’t either].
If it wasn’t for America, reunification would have already happened.
So the pov of Americans or the west caring about indigenous people is faulty from the pov of most of the rest of the world. The west should care about indigenous people in their own direct spheres of influence first.
Lol Taiwan is officially the "Republic of China", as per their own claims.
Really? I am intrigued. Why do you think that?
I have no idea what the build quality of BYD is, but doing better than Tesla isn't exactly a challenge.
Chinese phones, yes. But I'd argue we're past peak China. Huawei phones briefly were the #1 selling in the world, have since pulled back.
If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful.
Can't really ban what can be downloaded for free and hosted by anyone. There are many providers hosting the ~700B parameter version that aren't CCP aligned.
People made shirts with printouts of the code to RSA under the heading "this shirt is a munition." Apparently such shirts are still for sale, even though they are not classified as munitions anymore.
[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_of_cryptography_from_th...
The ban was on exporting the code, not having the code in possession.
Furthermore it was only the US who had this ban.
I am old enough to remember this and the scoffing that European PGP users had towards their American counterparts
Though I’m not suggesting an import ban on DeepSeek would be effective either. Just that the US does have precedence pulling these kinds of stunts.
You can also look at the 90s subculture for passing DeCSS code (a tool for breaking DVD encryption) to see another example of how people wilfully skirted these kinds of stupid legal limitations.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeCSS
So if you were to ask me if a ban on DeepSeek would work, the answer is clearly “no”. But that doesn’t mean it’s not going to happen. And if it does, the only people hurt are legitimate US businesses who might get a benefit from DeepSeek but have to follow the law. Those of us outside of America will be completely unaffected. Just like we were when US tried to limit the distribution of GPG.
Like music? They banned napster
And this analogy isn't particularly good. Napster was the server, not the product. Whether you got XYZ from Napster or wherever else doesn't matter, because its the product that you are after, not the way to get the product.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/kevinkeller_deepseek-privacy-...
I'm not going to take a side on whether there is or not.
But, it does sound reminiscent of the reasons used to ban Tik-tok.
This is already evident with CNSA/NASA, Huawei/Android, TikTok/Western social media. The Western tech gets mothballed because we stick our heads in the sand and pretend we are undisputed leaders of the world in tech, whereas it is slowly becoming disputable.
> Western tech gets mothballed because we stick our heads in the sand and pretend we are undisputed leaders of the world in tech, whereas it is slowly becoming disputable.
I am hearing Chinese tech is now the best and they achieved it with banning things left and right.
TikTok is a consumption tool, DS is a productive one. They aren't the same.
Also still an unresolved issue is how they will ever comply with a deletion request, should any model output personal data of someone. They are heavily in a gray area, with regards to what should be allowed. If anything, they should really shut up now.
But DeepSeek didn't use that presumably (since it's secret). They definitely can't argue that using copyrighted material for training is fine, but using output from other commercial models isn't. That's too inconsistent.
IANAL but it seems to me that OpenAI wouldn’t be able to claim their outputs are IP since they are AI-generated. It may be against their TOS, meaning OpenAI could refuse to provide service to DeepSeek in the future, but they can’t really sue them.
[1]: https://www.reuters.com/legal/ai-generated-art-cannot-receiv...
I don't think OpenAI should be able to make any claims of IP for the AI generated outputs, since they based that on other work, partially copyrighted work, which they hide. They simply throw algorithms at data that is not their data to begin with.
If I steal something, keep the exact thing I stole hidden, and sell a product, that I could only have made, based on the stolen thing, how can I expect that to be even legal, let alone untouchable IP?
I think way too many people have seen too many dollar signs in front of their eyes. The whole thing is outrageous. If they were transparently proving, that they are using open data sets, adhering to licenses, then they would get to claim IP.
Well, they can argue that, if they're fine with being hypocrites.
They're hypocrites.
Source:
> If not sold within a year, the law would make it illegal for web-hosting services to support TikTok, and it would force Google and Apple to remove TikTok from app stores — rendering the app unusable with time.
https://www.npr.org/2024/04/24/1246663779/biden-ban-tiktok-u...
So no, it doesn't use your exact location, it just uses the censorship mechanisms that Apple and Google gracefully provide.
everything is already too late.
The US should only ban DeepSeek (and other Chinese companies) from accessing US frontier models.
The US should only ban DeepSeek (and other Chinese companies) from accessing US frontier models designed and trained by Chinese Americans.
fixed for you.
The UAE (where I live, happily, and by choice), which desperately wants to be the center of the world in AI and is spending vast time and treasure to make it happen (they've even got their own excellent, government-funded foundation model), would _love_ this. Any attempt to ban DeepSeek in the US would be the most gigantic self-own. Combine that with no income tax, a fantastic standard of living, and a willingness to very easily give out visas to smart people from anywhere in the world, and I have to imagine it is one of several countries desperate for the US to do something so utterly stupid.
Well I think DeepSeek releasing it open source and on an MIT license will rally the big talent. The open sourcing of a new technology has always driven progress in the past.
The last paragraph too is where OpenAi seems to be focusing their efforts..
> we engage in countermeasures to protect our IP, including a careful process for which frontier capabilities to include in released models ..
> ... we are working closely with the US government to best protect the most capable models from efforts by adversaries and competitors to take US technology.
So they'll go for getting DeepSeek banned like TikTok was now that a precedent has been set ?