And we'd be shooting ourselves in the foot to do so. If America is forced to use only the clunky corporate-owned American AI at a fee, we'll very quickly fall behind competitors worldwide who use DeepSeek models to produce better results for much, much cheaper.

Not to mention it'd defeat the whole purpose of a "free market" economy. (Not that that means much of anything anymore)

It never meant anything. There's no such thing as a free market economy. We haven't had one of those in modern times, and arguably human civilization has never had one. Markets and their participants have chronically been subject to information asymmetry, coercion/manipulation, and regulation, among other things.

I don't think all of that is a bad thing (regulation tends to make it harder to do the first two things), but "free markets" are the economic equivalent to the "point mass" in physics: perhaps useful sometimes to create simple models and explanations of things, but will never exist in the real world.

Yes, technically and pedantically you are correct.

But restricting the trade in micro chips only because the USA is afraid it will loose a technical and commercial edge is a long long way from a free market.

It is too late, too. China has broken out and they are ahead in many fields. Not trading chips with them will make them build their own foundries. In two decades they will be as far ahead there as they are in many other fields.

If the USA would trade then the technological capacities of China and the USA would stay matched, as they help each other. China ahead in some areas, the USA ahead in others.

That would still (probably) not be a pure Free Market but it would be a freer market, and better for everybody except a few elites (on both sides)

Madness is taking root

The Nvidia export restrictions also might be shooting us in the foot too, or at least Nvidia. They really benefit from CUDA remaining the de facto standard.

The Nvidia export restrictions have already harmed Nvidia. Deepseek-R1 is efficient on compute and was trained on old, obsolete cards because they couldn't get ahold of Nvidia's most cutting edge tech, so they were forced to innovate instead of just brute-forcing performance with faster cards. That has directly resulted in Nvidia's stock crashing over the last week.

That's true, but I mean it'd be a hundred times worse if Deepseek did this on non-Nvidia cards. Which seems like only a matter of time if we're going to keep doing this.

> Which seems like only a matter of time if we're going to keep doing this.

What's funny is that people have been saying this since OpenCL was announced but today we're actually in a worse spot than we were 10 years ago. China too - their inability to replicate EULV advancements has left their lithography in a terrible place.

There's a reason China is literally dependent on Nvidia for competitive hardware. It's their window into export-controlled TSMC wafers and complex streaming multiprocessor designs. Losing access to Nvidia hardware isn't an option for them (or the United States for that matter) which is why the US pushes so hard for export controls. There is no alternative.

Well I wasn't optimistic about OpenCL in the past, because nobody will bother with that when they can pay a little (or even a lot) more for Nvidia and use CUDA. Even though OpenCL might work in theory with whatever tools someone is using, it's unpopular and therefore less supported. But this time is different.

> But this time is different.

Is it? Time will tell, but it wasn't "different" even during the crypto craze when CUDA was literally printing money. We were promised world-changing ASICs just like with Cereberas and Groq, and ended up with nothing in the end.

When AI's popularity blows over (and it will, like crypto), will the market have responded fast enough? From where I'm standing, it looks like every major manufacturer (and even the Chinese market) is trying the ASIC route again. And having watched ASICs die a very painful and unsatisfying death in the mining pools, I'd like to avoid manufacturing purpose-made ICs that are obsolete within months. I'm simply not seeing the sort of large-scale strategy that threatens Nvidia's actual demand.

I don't have any hope for ASICs. GPUs are going to stay, but if enough big countries are only able to obtain new non-Nvidia GPUs, big corps and even governments will find it worthwhile to build up the ecosystem around OpenCL or something else. Before now, CUDA had unstoppable momentum.

Crypto mining was just about hash rates, so I don't think it really mattered whether you used CUDA or not. Nvidia cards were just faster usually. People did use AMD too, but that didn't involve creating a full competitor to CUDA. They do also use ASICs for BTC in particular, I don't think that died.

DeepSeek's technology is out of the bag.

Every LLM provider in the US will be using it to lower OpEx.

One of them is likely to pass those savings along to consumers to gain market share.

Facebook is in the business of providing weights for free.

The idea that we are all doomed unless we immediately migrate to DeepSeek is fantasy.

> Banned in the USA. Only.

The US government has the wherewithal to drag Europe along with it, like they did with Huawei's 5G equipment.

So far, a general tiktok ban (as opposed to a tiktok ban on things like government phones) has only been in effect in the USA. I highly doubt Europe would play ball at any attempt at banning imports of DeepSeek.

Besides, it's kinda too late for this. The model is freely accessible, so any attempt at banning it would be _completely_ moot. If DeepSeek keeps releasing their future models for free, I don't see how a ban could ever be effective at all. Worse case scenario, big tech can't use those models... but then individuals (and startups willing to go fast and break laws) will be able to use them and instantly get a leg up on the competition.

Used to. If they're going to start a trade war, pull out of NATO and invade Greenland instead, there'll not be much soft power left to drag Europe anywhere.

And yet, Huawei is still doing fine.

Not really anymore, and I would bet that the way things are going, Twitter will be banned in the EU before Tiktok.

Perhaps a few years ago, yes. But considering that the US president is now threatening to invade and annex part of a European country, I don't think past results can be extrapolated to the present.

The only parts of the world pivoting towards China are the despotic countries seeking to overthrow democracy and liberalism.

No the US isn't pivoting towards China so far

Well the US is a liberal democracy...

Sure we are buddy, keep telling yourself that.

Could you please stop posting unsubstantive comments and flamebait? You've unfortunately been doing it repeatedly. It's not what this site is for, and destroys what it is for.

If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful.

The US is a plutocracy pretending to be a liberal democracy.

Rapidly doing a lot less of the pretending.

Could you please stop posting unsubstantive comments and flamebait? You've unfortunately been doing it repeatedly. It's not what this site is for, and destroys what it is for.

If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful.

All right.

What about Brazil.

Brazil's technological environment is stagnant and apathetic. And it has been that way since the tragic explosion that claimed the country's space program. It seems that all of the country's technological activities have suffered the blow. It is possible that now it will finally be able to manufacture its national tier 3 AI, using the outputs of DeepSeek.

They've got a socialist convict president...

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4835388-brazil-pre...

Lula is no friend of democracy.

Not a single American can say shit given what's going on at home.

What's happening at home? From a foreigner's (Canadian) perspective, Trump's not doing anything crazy but the media is going crazy...

Our Prime Minister has multiple scandals worse than anything Trump has done so far... From groping a reporter to multiple instances of blackface to firing the attorney general because she investigated a company who gave bribes to Moammar Gaddafi to nearly a billion dollars going to a 2 person software consulting firm to fake charities giving him and his family members millions of dollars and much more. Yet somehow we're held up as an example of democracy and the US, which defends democracy all over the world somehow isn't...

Not sure what you mean; the things you list that your PM has done seems like just another day at the office for Trump.

Trump has already done quite a few crazy things since his inauguration. And I'm judging that by what I'm hearing from people who are directly affected by his actions, not by what I'm hearing from the media.

> the things you list that your PM has done seems like just another day at the office for Trump

Yet you did not mention one single thing. The thread to which you replied did.

it's not crazy to suspend all federal grants, get us out of the Paris accord when the world is rapidly heating up, try to put RFK Jr, a vaccine denier, in charge of our health, rename the goddamn Gulf of Mexico, unconstitutionally order that people born on American soil are not necessarily Americans anymore, which has been the case for at least 150 years, withdraw from the WHO, launch hourly raids to deport people, many of whom are actually American citizens?

> suspend all federal grants

Not really.

> get us out of the Paris accord when the world is rapidly heating up

Is anyone on pace to meet those targets? Canada isn't.

> try to put RFK Jr, a vaccine denier, in charge of our health,

Our health minister is a random politician who took poly sci and history...

> rename the goddamn Gulf of Mexico

Things get renamed all the time... It's not crazy.

> people born on American soil are not necessarily Americans anymore

Jus soli is the exception in the world and in history. For example, every European country has jus sanguinis...

> launch hourly raids to deport people

Enforcing laws is the normal state of affairs in the world...

> many of whom are actually American citizens?

I doubt this one, got any proof?

Be a bit careful of "whataboutism". It is a cognitive fallacy

Canada's civil society collapsing does not mean that the USA's civil society is not. Perhaps they both are?

I think that the social fabric in both countries can take the punishment for a decade or two. It will be some time before they collapse.

This isn't whataboutism, it's some perspective that what's happening in America is merely reverting back to what's normal in liberal western democracies and thus not "crazy".

The only thing I find crazy about the US right now is the media reaction.

Defending borders? Jus sanguinis? Only 2 genders? Cutting spending? Tariffs? Literally so normal it's boring.

[flagged]

Could you please stop posting unsubstantive comments and flamebait? You've unfortunately been doing it repeatedly. It's not what this site is for, and destroys what it is for.

If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful.

Unsubstantive, sure, I agree, but I don’t see how expressing a sentiment of disbelief and suspicion of trolling (or however it may be called) this way is “flamebait”.

Posting "is this satire" is an internet trope, a way of snarkily putting down what someone else said. In that way, it's a provocation and in that way flamebait.

If that explanation doesn't land, there are other site guidelines which maybe make the point more directly, such as "Don't be snarky", "Edit out swipes", and/or "Omit internet tropes".

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

i see, thank you for clarifying

> Is anyone on pace to meet those targets? Canada isn't.

India, one of the poorest countries by per capita GDP met its target before deadline. Better than looking at others, US need to ensure that it meets its own targets. Because its the sole super power and at an international level without US leading sustainability, there is no hope for the rest of us.

> when the world is rapidly heating up

I think it would do no harm to know that the Earth had a glaciar era (at least, I am not sure it was more than one), 10 times more carbon dioxide than now at some point and that weather always changed in history. All without humans being involved. Do not take as facts the propaganda of "it is humans and only humans who are making the temperature change".

If I am not wrong the greenhouse gas for carbon dioxide is a small percentage (I do not remember if it was 3%, from which only a fraction is generated by humans). The water vapor (which is a greenhouse gas also) accounts for like 90% or more, by the effect of the sun in the water, and noone talks about this in the media. Also, the most catastrophic models are usually chosen instead of other alternative models.

There are also multiple reports of how data was deliberately hidden or manipulated: https://www.libertaddigital.com/ciencia/que-es-el-watergate-... (in spanish, some evidence of manipulation about the climate change, which was conveniently renamed from "Global warming" at some point, bc in the last 20 years there has been no such "global warming"). I think there was a record in the mass of ice registered in Antartica in year 2017 if I am not wrong...

Smells really bad all this story at this point, to be honest.

Trump is doing things that violate some of the guardrails of the US system. For example, refusing to disburse funds allocated by the legislature. These separations are less of a barrier in parliments. At least in the westminster system. These boundaries have been redrawn before: the federal bureaucracy was basically invented between the 30s and the 60s and SCOTUS's role as we know it was established in the early 1800s.

"Democracy and liberalism" increasingly means canceling elections (Romania), freezing bank accounts (Canada), jailing people for speech (UK), killing thousands of children (Israel), kidnapping CEOs (France), banning foreign market competition (USA), blowing up pipelines, seizing assets, erecting a vast surveillance state, etc, etc.

"Democracy and liberalism" are merely shorthand for a neofeudal rent-seeking oligarchy that disguises itself with parliamentary forms. As Huxley predicted in 1958:

>the democracies will change their nature; the quaint old forms -- elections, parliaments, Supreme Courts and all the rest -- will remain. The underlying substance will be a new kind of non-violent totalitari­anism. All the traditional names, all the hallowed slo­gans will remain exactly what they were in the good old days. Democracy and freedom will be the theme of every broadcast and editorial -- but democracy and free­dom in a strictly Pickwickian sense. Meanwhile the ruling oligarchy and its highly trained elite of sol­diers, policemen, thought-manufacturers and mind-manipulators will quietly run the show as they see fit.

Meanwhile our ruling class has completely exhausted its moral authority and delegitimized its own political formula: of popular sovereignty, rules-based order, human rights, and so on. The mask is off and no one can take these sacred oaths seriously any more.

THAT is why the world is pivoting to China. That, and the fact that China does not impose as a precondition of lending and trade that you upend your social/sexual norms and/or demographically transform your country through mass immigration. China simply offers a better deal.

Agree with most of this (not the weird anti-immigrant bit but the rest), however China does have some foreign requirements that are a bit of a pain in the ass, like its insistence that Taiwan isn't a country. They also don't like it and will retaliate when you point out the shady shit it does (e.g. the Uighurs), but then thats no different from the states especially under its current toddler administration.

The immigration bit helps explain why Hungary, for instance, is trying to escape Western orbit and align with the East.

Is Hungary planning to exit the EU?

I can't say what Orban is planning specifically, but his recent actions have not been well received by the EU Council, to say the least. Moreover Hungary has been China's main outpost in Europe since 2015 when it joined Belt and Road.

Considering fresh signs of rupture in transatlantic relations, maybe Orban will turn out to have had keen foresight. There seems to be some sort of realignment afoot under the Trump administration.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_visits_by_Viktor_Orb%C3%A...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Hungary_relation...

Orban is a racist, kleptocratic madman that runs a mafia state - trying to apply reason to his actions beyond enriching himself and his lackeys is a fools game

Every country would behave like China in the same situation with Taiwan. Imagine if the Confederates moved over to Puerto Rico or Hawaii or Alaska. America damn sure would say that’s America still. They’re literally the same people from the same land. Same ethnicity. Same history. Only being apart for under a century.

> They’re literally the same people from the same land. Same ethnicity. Same history. Only being apart for under a century

I see what you mean. But there is an alternative point of view.

The indigenous people of Taiwan are very different. DNA wise they are the prototypical polynesians

From an alternative pov from any one not from the west/colonizer countries:

We arent talking about those indigenous people regarding this topic. We are talking about the Chinese people there. This would be clear and obvious if Confederates were in any of the examples I gave. All 3 examples have indigenous people now who aren’t cared about now.

Americans were still actively cleansing Native Americans under 200 years ago. The only country that would do anything serious about an attempt at Chinese reunification would be America [and of course NATO and Europe but if America wasn’t doing anything, Europe wouldn’t either].

If it wasn’t for America, reunification would have already happened.

So the pov of Americans or the west caring about indigenous people is faulty from the pov of most of the rest of the world. The west should care about indigenous people in their own direct spheres of influence first.

> its insistence that Taiwan isn't a country

Lol Taiwan is officially the "Republic of China", as per their own claims.

BYD cars are everywhere in Latin America and Europe. Xiaomi phones also.

Same in Australia. Xiaomi phones less so.

A much better build compared to Tesla.

> A much better build compared to Tesla.

Really? I am intrigued. Why do you think that?

The Cybertruck is well-known for breaking down for the silliest reasons and losing parts during regular driving.

I have no idea what the build quality of BYD is, but doing better than Tesla isn't exactly a challenge.

I live in Europe half the time. Literally never seen a BYD car in the flesh.

Chinese phones, yes. But I'd argue we're past peak China. Huawei phones briefly were the #1 selling in the world, have since pulled back.

Could you please stop posting unsubstantive comments and flamebait? You've unfortunately been doing it repeatedly. It's not what this site is for, and destroys what it is for.

If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful.

I have a Xiaomi phone, a Huawei Matebook and a BYD car. I guess I am pivoting to China after all :)

world is pretty small as we see with all nations kissing the ring in the last few weeks. pivot away from chinar will accelerate.

We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42866072.