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Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by dtquad on Tuesday February 04, 2025 @11:20PM (#42943744)
>I literally do not know how the electrical and firmware engineers will do their jobs now if we cannot receive packages from China

As a software engineer who works closely with electrical and firmware engineers I know what you are saying is completely true.

The question is how did we let it go this far? Why has there never been serious Western alternatives to JLCPCB, PCBWay, JLCCNC etc.? Has anyone asked themselves how these Chinese firms are so cheap? How can JLCCNC take ~$120 worth of raw material, CNC machine it into our specified part, anodize the part, and send it to Denmark for ~$120? Like what is going on?

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by Veliladon on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @12:10AM (#42944075)
Because there's nowhere in the US like Shenzhen, Guangdong or Hong Kong.

Remember how Apple couldn't just pick up and move the production of iPhones to India or Vietnam? You need all the ancillary industries around the production to be there, along with being competitive and commoditized as well.

When a supplier has something go wrong a line of manufacturing doesn't go down. You go down the street to the same guy selling the same thing and have them pick up the slack. If you want a 1uF ceramic cap come hell or high water there's going to be a dozen people selling them all quoting a price a little above cost. When Apple moved production to India and Vietnam. When you hear Apple talking about a few billion in investment in Indonesia? This is what they're helping set up and what takes a decade to do.

Anyone can buy automation equipment but there's nowhere in the US you can do what JLCPCB/PCBWay do with PCB and electronics assembling because we literally don't manufacture all the ancillary stuff required in the US, little alone manufacture it all in the same place. If the SMT components are manufactured domestically say for military purposes it's going to be spread out all over the US because politicians pork barrel contracts for their districts and states.

You could setup next to a Mouser distribution hub but Mouser is a middleman and they have you over a barrel. What do middlemen do in that situation? They raise prices just enough to the point where it's uneconomical to leave.

You metaphorically need to invent the universe to make it work in the US.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by likeabatterycar on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @01:21AM (#42944606)
> Remember how Apple couldn't just pick up and move the production of iPhones to India or Vietnam?

You left out the part about dormitories full of modern-day slaves, complete with nets so they don't leap to their deaths. Generally this is frowned upon in the West. India and Vietnam wouldn't tolerate it either, despite being developing countries. Wasn't there a riot at Apple's India factory over work conditions or am I thinking of something else?

Bury this post all you want; I know a guy at Apple that saw the nets in person. It's quite a sight to behold and humbling experience.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by ben_w on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @03:41AM (#42945738)
> You left out the part about dormitories full of modern-day slaves, complete with nets so they don't leap to their deaths. Generally this is frowned upon in the West.

Frowned upon, but you (the US) do have them: https://www.goldengate.org/district/district-projects/suicid...

Seen them here in Germany, too: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vDSL4HeQrLLfYU2m7

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by Evil_Saint on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @04:51AM (#42946285)
That's not the same at all.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by inetknght on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @05:13AM (#42946454)
That's funny because I've thought it is the same for years and I'm happy to see someone else post a comment about it instead.

Perhaps you'd like to elaborate on why you think it's not the same.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by antonyt on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @05:55AM (#42946777)
These are the extremely obviously different. A company that has to take specific measures to prevent the suicide of their workers should raise a much different level of scrutiny that the fact that a massive bridge available to millions of people is used to commit suicide.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by ben_w on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @06:13AM (#42946902)
The company had just shy of a million people in it at the time, making the comparison "about the entire population of South Dakota" (which had 139 suicides that year) or "121% of the population of San Francisco" (32 jumped from specifically the Golden Gate bridge in 2010, which was Foxconn's worst year[0], and that doesn't count any of the other suicides in SF that year, just jumping specifically off that specific bridge), and it's nowhere near the only example of this in the USA.

This university had three students jump to their deaths in 2010, out of about 26k students, compared to 15 in Foxconn's worst year out of 980,000 employees:

https://news.sky.com/story/suicide-nets-college-attempts-to-...

Population adjusted, what happened at Cornell University was as if 112 people rather than 15 had jumped in Foxconn.

Or this one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elmer_Holmes_Bobst_Library

"""In late 2003, the library was the site of two suicides. In separate incidents, students jumped from the open-air crosswalks inside the library and fell to the stereogram-patterned marble floor below.

After the second suicide, the university installed Plexiglas barricades on each level and along the stairways to prevent further jumping. In 2009, a third student jumped to his death from the tenth floor, apparently scaling the plexiglas barricade.[7]

The library has since added floor-to-ceiling metal barriers to prevent any future suicide attempts. The barrier is made of randomly perforated aluminum screens that evoke the zeros and ones of a digital waterfall.[8]"""

2 out of 59,144 students would be equivalent to 33 out of the 980k Foxconn employees, double the number who actually jumped.

[0] https://abc7news.com/archive/7878562/

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by inetknght on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @06:00AM (#42946821)
Why should a company require more strict scrutiny than, say, a public bridge? Well of course there are many reasons, but specifically: in the case of addressing suicide? If a bridge is being used to commit suicide then... perhaps the problems causing suicide should be addressed instead of (or... in addition to) the symptom of suicide being prevented.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by Evil_Saint on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @12:56PM (#42952452)
The Golden Gate Bridge is a public bridge and a destination for suicidal people.

Foxconn is a place where people live and work. Not accessible to the public.

Where is the overlap?

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by ben_w on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @03:47PM (#42954878)
Foxconn is the same size of the combination of all of San Francisco on one side of the bridge with quite a lot of the small settlements on the north side.

Treating Foxconn as "a company" is fine for legal purposes, but it's on a scale of "one of the larger incorporated cities, close to the top 10" by US standards — or indeed "South Dakota". (Similar population, but Foxconn's revenue is about 3.7x South Dakota's GDP or 81% of San Francisco's GDP).

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by HPsquared on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @06:43AM (#42947161)
I don't get all the hubbub about the nets. Classic example of trying to do something good (save lives) and getting attacked for it.

Compare to barriers around train/subway platforms, nets or high barriers on bridges. All sorts of things. It's pretty much a "large number of people living around tall structures" thing.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by ben_w on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @07:08AM (#42947375)
When I'm feeling positive about humanity, I think it's a failure of comprehension of the scale of Foxconn. The company is about the size (both population and economic output) of a small country all by itself, and people are bad at imagining things on that scale.

When I'm feeling negative, a Tom Gauld cartoon comes to mind: https://old.reddit.com/r/funny/comments/2xljaz/us_vs_them/

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by moshun on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @01:31AM (#42944675)
While I agree with the sentiment, the new administration clearly doesn’t care about that and has no intention of fixing it. This political theater so they can fix it later.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by throw37373 on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @02:05AM (#42944924)
Except they have dormitories with safety nets in India and Vietnam too.

The riot in India was because they weren't getting paid, not because of the work conditions.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by onemoresoop on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @08:50AM (#42948463)
Gosh, they were not getting paid despite those conditions? That’s batshit crazy.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by weird-eye-issue on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @02:59AM (#42945410)
There are nets on bridges and other places in the US, too.

Also I don't think the suicide rate of those workers you are referring to is higher than the general population. There are simply lots of workers. For example, Foxconn has more than 1 million employees so it is normal that there would be some level of suicide within such a large population.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by consp on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @03:13AM (#42945522)
We have millions of people here, suicide rates are not that high, and no nets. So what is your argument exactly?
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by ben_w on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @03:58AM (#42945870)
The US? Your suicide rates are higher, and you do have nets[0].

In their worst year, Foxconn had 15 suicides from 930,000 people for a rate of 1.6 per 100k[1].

The US region with the current lowest rate is the District of Columbia, at 6.1 per 100k; the US national average in Foxconn's worst year was about 13 per 100k[2].

Today, the USA national average ranks them #31 highest in the world with a rate of 14.5 per 100k, while China's national average of 6.7 per 100 is close to your best region (DC) and ranks them #122 (higher rank number means lower rate)[3].

Foxconn, in that year, had a workforce about the same size as the total population of South Dakota. South Dakota in that year had a suicide count of 139 [4].

[0] https://www.goldengate.org/district/district-projects/suicid...

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foxconn_suicides

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_in_the_United_States#/...

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_suicide_r...

[4] Page 5: https://sprc.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/South-Dakota-Sui...

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by weird-eye-issue on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @03:46AM (#42945777)
Did you actually compare suicide rates to China in general? Something tells me you didn't.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by close04 on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @03:03AM (#42945443)
> Generally this is frowned upon in the West. India and Vietnam wouldn't tolerate it either

Yes, "frowned upon" is the perfectly realistic way to describe it.

Dior was just caught using effectively slave labor including illegal immigrants in Italy (so they can say "Made in Italy" on the label), all locked in, working and sleeping in the makeshift factory, working round the clock shifts, operating machines with safeties disabled so they're more productive, making 2700E handbags for 53E [0]. The court just called it "Unethical Supply Chain" but no criminal charges. Luxury brands are put "on notice".

> thousands of small foreign-owned manufacturers supply luxury brands with goods that can claim the prized “Made in Italy” label but are produced at “Made in China” prices.

If you thought now you can sleep well but still buy cheap (or even a 2700E handbag) because your product isn't made in China, think again. And this isn't just Italy, it's everywhere. And it isn't just iPhones or Dior handbags, it's almost every cheap thing you buy. Business owners are greedy and chase profits, and customers are cheap and most just don't care beyond their own needs and wants.

[0] https://www.forbes.com/sites/pamdanziger/2024/06/24/italian-...

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by themaninthedark on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @09:32AM (#42948956)
It's not just >Business owners are greedy and chase profits, and customers are cheap and don't care beyond their own needs and wants.

You have the judicial system of Italy that is complicit in this behavior in this instance and others in different cases.

Although, it seems to be Dior's subcontractors: >found two of its Chinese-owned subcontractors based outside Milan had exploited their workers.

And Dior was not doing audits.

No comment in the article on the fate of the subcontractors who violated the law.... very encouraging.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by pembrook on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @02:35AM (#42945188)
Sorry, but comparing the living/working standards of [developing country] to the wealthiest nation on earth is a silly 1990s emotional appeal ignoring the reality that, every society has to climb the ladder. And actively harms this process.

You do realize the default state of humanity is living in the dirt and fighting off starvation daily right? It takes decades/hundreds of years to develop an advanced economy and fight for the institutions that enable this not to be the case. Undesirable manufacturing jobs lead to desirable manufacturing jobs (as is happening rapidly there!)

Foxconn not being a rung on the ladder in China doesn’t mean locals suddenly get American living standards, it means they never climb the ladder and get stuck with even worse alternatives —- I don’t think you realize the history of China is basically constant mass starvation:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_famines_in_China

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by bayindirh on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @04:29AM (#42946110)
> complete with nets so they don't leap to their deaths.

These nets are everywhere here. In the our other building's (which is an R&D facility where nobody is a modern day slave by your definition) stair well, construction sites, bridges, etc.

I saw it all over Europe in buildings, bridges, etc.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by openplatypus on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @04:51AM (#42946283)
Which Europe? I live in Germany and travel frequently around most of the Western, Central and Northern Europe. No nets.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by ben_w on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @08:01AM (#42947892)
This is in central Berlin, the net is just about visible: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vDSL4HeQrLLfYU2m7

Clifton Suspension Bridge in the UK is infamous for it, which is why it's now got a barrier up on the pedestrian section: https://maps.app.goo.gl/U1xYZHqhhxNoKMDV7

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by bayindirh on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @05:09AM (#42946419)
I think I saw one in Freiburg, in University. I vaguely remember seeing some nets in The Netherlands. Probably inside Science Park buildings.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by youngtaff on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @04:33AM (#42946137)
US prison population is essentially modern day slaves… yes some of them are there for truely horrific things but a lot are their on minor issues
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by meigwilym on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @05:30AM (#42946570)
> If the SMT components are manufactured domestically say for military purposes it's going to be spread out all over the US because politicians pork barrel contracts for their districts and states.

Or possibly politicians attracting investment to their districts for the benefit their voters. What's the alternative here, a centrally planned economy?

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by reaperman on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @06:04AM (#42946842)
I don't understand your comment. None of it makes any sense.

> because politicians pork barrel contracts for their districts and states.

> Or possibly politicians attracting investment to their districts for the benefit their voters

That's literally the same thing - you just gave the definition of pork barrel spending. It isn't purely bad, it's just excessive or unnecessary to benefit one politician's constituents.

And pork barrel spending is also literally a centrally-planned economy. It's the federal government saying "put this industry here" despite the fact that capitalism would not have put it there.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by throw_m239339 on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @08:18AM (#42948070)
> You metaphorically need to invent the universe to make it work in the US.

You didnt answer the obvious question of the why things are the way they are now? US used to have their entire electronic supply chain, save from raw materials, in USA in the 70s... So why cant US build its own Shenzhen or Hong Kong? taxes? corporate taxes are relatively low in some US states, infrastructure? US has all the infrastructure needed. Engineers? US claims to have the best universities in the world...

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by myrmidon on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @08:37AM (#42948268)
That is extremely simple, because there is less money to be made compared to just going into pure software/finance/etc, which is why all the US talent shifted there in the past.

Economically speaking it was a big advantage because you could get all the gadgets manufactured at chinese wages for the last decades-- electronics made in the US will be more expensive even after all the necessary investments are paid for (duh).

A possible model sector for how this could look like is agriculture: Most nations subsidize the shit out of it to keep a good chunk of it local (~$20 billion/year for the US). You could treat heavy industry/electronics manufacturing the same way, it would just cost taxpayers a bunch and also increase prices in general (because you then poach manpower and capital from other unsubsidized industries).

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by abirch on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @09:43AM (#42949116)
What I would love to see is a public payer heath plan paid with a VAT. Then every startup gets subsidized as do large corporations. It sucks when you have to think about health care costs when doing a startup or rolling the dice.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by palmfacehn on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @09:08AM (#42948663)
Shenzhen is a Special Economic Zone and Hong Kong is/was a major hub for finance. People used to say, "China didn't take Hong Kong, Hong Kong took Shenzhen". It would be hard to replicate the opportunity of Deng's liberalizations being new and adjacent to a major center for finance. It would be like having Manhattan across the bay from an untapped backwater like rural Mississippi and have Mississippi declare, "anything goes, we're open for biz".

Look at the existing issues with the Rust Belt as an example. The higher cost of labor could be offset by higher worker productivity. The issues are in regulatory compliance, demands from politicians and unions. As soon as a major project is announced, the demands start flowing in. Look at what happened with Amazon's attempted fulfillment center in NYC. Look at the amazing strategic location and port infrastructure of a city like Baltimore, and ask why it cannot attract more development. There are major political obstacles which need to be tackled in every case. Even California's failed highspeed rail project should tell us something.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by ta20240528 on Thursday February 06, 2025 @01:15PM (#42964955)
> The higher cost of [US] labor could be offset by higher [US] worker productivity.

I suggest you watch American Factory (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9351980/) to completely disabuse yourself of this notion.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by HeyLaughingBoy on Thursday February 06, 2025 @05:39PM (#42967228)
American engineer: "I wish we could tape their mouths shut."

Chinese engineer (in amazement) "You are allowed to do that?"

Yah, I need to watch that again.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by palmfacehn on Thursday February 06, 2025 @11:39PM (#42969467)
https://www.conference-board.org/publications/Productivity-A...

>Among major economies and regions, the United States has the highest rate of production of goods and services per hour worked, with only a few small European economies outperforming it. Productivity rates in most parts of the world are well below the US’. Indeed, according to research conducted by The Conference Board, nearly 75% of the global population lives in economies where productivity rates are below the global average of US$21.6 per hour worked.

Of course, it may be reasonable to suspect that at least some of these productivity gaps are a result of different sectors which are served, ie manufacturing vs. services.

https://jacobin.com/2020/02/american-factory-julia-reichert-...

>A day before she quoted Marx at the Oscars, Jacobin briefly chatted with American Factory co-director Julia Reichert about her democratic socialism and long history on the Left.

>At Saturday’s Film Independent Spirit Awards ceremony Julia Reichert mentioned “income inequality” during her best documentary acceptance speech for American Factory. The first film released by Barack and Michelle Obama’s Higher Ground Productions, American Factory is about a Chinese capitalist who reopens a closed plant in Ohio, employing thousands of American workers.

https://www.imdb.com/review/rw5946906/

>The only effective means of worker power is through unionizing, and both Chinese and American executives resist it mightily, using pages from the exact same playbook, like targeting leaders and paying for propaganda campaigns. In a sense, the American executives going overseas was like finding a pool of scabs to cross the picket line. As one of the state congressmen observes in speaking to the workers, corporate profitability and treating workers respectfully via a living wage are not incompatible things, and it's shameful that they're treated that way out of unfettered greed in extreme capitalism. (Hmm, if only there was an international labor organization, lol)

>>The issues are in regulatory compliance, demands from politicians and unions. As soon as a major project is announced, the demands start flowing in.

Without getting into the weeds of the documentary's agenda or methods of argumentation - it isn't hard to see that the same methods employed on the mainland with low productivity per worker, will not magically produce different results in the US. Higher productivity, along with higher wages may require automating much of the production process. This may be more capital intensive up-front.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by ta20240528 on Friday February 07, 2025 @02:19AM (#42970276)
Serious comment: how does comparing productivity (or anything) by dividing into GDP work - let alone to three significant figures - when all countries measure GDP differently?

The USA for example includes about $7t of hedonic and imputed values that a) never happened in the real world, but b) exceed Japan's entire GDP.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by palmfacehn on Friday February 07, 2025 @02:54AM (#42970453)
US: Large public sector of debatable value (please no flames)

Japan: Paves entirety of Yokohama

China: Tofu real estate and more...

I agree that it is silly. If the state or the public sector digs holes and refills them, it adds to GDP. Typically economists say, "Yes, GDP is a flawed metric, but it is better than no metric"

That said, we can evaluate the added benefits of automation and the productivity gains thereof, purely from first principles, without resorting to empiricism.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by willvarfar on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @08:35AM (#42948253)
In the 1800s the UK led the industrial revolution. Most things were manufactured there. Raw materials were shipped in from all over the Empire but the manufacturing was usually happening in the mills of the UK.

In the 1900s the USA took that crown. Most things became manufactured there. A lot thanks to Britain bankrupting itself to defeat Germany in WW1.

In the 2000s China has taken that crown. Now most things are manufactured there. But the owners and customers are in the US. The US corporations have outsourced their manufacturing to China and get rich from it.

And now the USA workers wonder if it was all actually a good idea?

The financiers are still getting rich and looking not to move their manufacturing back to the US but rather to a less developed and so cheaper country further abroad...

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by brickfaced on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @02:22PM (#42953709)
>And now the USA workers wonder if it was all actually a good idea?

We were never asked.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by ta1243 on Thursday February 06, 2025 @04:25AM (#42960628)
> In the 1900s the USA took that crown. Most things became manufactured there. A lot thanks to Britain bankrupting itself to defeat Germany in WW1.

Throw in the massive loss of manpower both from the war and from Spanish flu, then the damage from years of bombing in WW2.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by bdcravens on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @08:39AM (#42948314)
It barely explains the full situation, but I feel like in the US we have lifestyle expectations (which is more than just money) that go with our education and career choices. This puts a virtual boundary on where you'll be able to get talent to go. (Relating it to our common experience, there's a reason why San Francisco or Austin is a much more attractive city for developers than Houston)
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by harimau777 on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @08:57AM (#42948528)
I'd almost say that the lifestyle expectations come first. I care about getting paid a lot primarily because high pay is necessary to live somewhere like San Francisco/Austin/NYC.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by floatrock on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @08:55AM (#42948520)
The boston-95-ring-vs-silicon-valley/noncompete-enforcement story gets close to this. Or the detroit-automotive-supply-chain story.

It's largely about can you set up an effective ecosystem of suppliers.

The story of the Traitorous 8 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traitorous_eight is basically the tale of how free-market competition spawns the economic prosperity of an entire region. In those times, Boston's 95 ring was the favored home of semiconductor tech, but the popular story goes that Massachusetts enforced non-compete clauses while California didn't, and the result was the ascension of Silicon Valley as people out west intermingled between semiconductor and computer companies, traded ideas, started new firms from those ideas, etc.

Shenzhen is amazing because it's an entire village of micro-manufacturies... one bodega specializes in one type of capacitor, a neighborhood specializes in rapid prototype boards, there's institutional social connections between all these folks so you can just run to the other side of town if you need something for this week's production run or if your assembly line controller board failed.

As for why we can't reproduce that in the US, my best guess is we've had the "get big or get out" mentality since Nixon. VC's won't fund a bodega specializing in some obscure electronics niche -- we favor rapid injection of capital into something that can quickly grow and dominate an entire industry. "Lifestyle business" is a pejorative here. The Shenzhen model on the other hand is an interconnected cottage industry village of generalists that focus on small runs of whatever Temu gadget is trending today and can rapidly change and adapt week to week. No individual bodega dominates, but as an ecosystem it does. Something something anti-fragile.

Yes, there are also the megafactories that make our iphones and galaxies and have dormitories for the basically-slave-level workforce, so the models do mix. But it's largely a different business mindset -- ecosystem vs. winner-takes-all.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by macleginn on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @10:40AM (#42950048)
"VC's won't fund a bodega specializing in some obscure electronics niche" --- is it generally known who funds Shenzhen bodegas?
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by AnotherGoodName on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @11:16AM (#42950660)
Walking through there and nearby HongKong it’s literally well educated individuals in garages each doing a ‘thing’ that all comes together to make something bigger. No investment needed here.

As in I witnessed a bespoke electric motor manufacturer that was in the ground floor garage space with a couple of guys neatly winding insulated copper around an iron bar cut to the size needed (very large).

You might see a massive train motor and say ‘where’d they get the funding to start this bespoke train motor company’. But it’s literally a couple of guys in an area where they have another couple of guys make the custom brushes, someone else doing the housing, they wind on the coils and boom you have a bespoke motor manufacturer. No investment needed.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by floatrock on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @10:50AM (#42950243)
My armchair understanding is they're closer to "lifestyle businesses", and if there's larger funding sources at play it's in supporting the ecosystem at large.

But I'm just an armchair commentator here. I hangout here cause I'd love to hear some better firsthand experiences if my story is off.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by _DeadFred_ on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @02:25PM (#42953749)
You are forgetting insurance/healthcare. Public healthcare would make it way easier for individuals to setup small boutique bodega manufacturing shops.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by troyvit on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @12:53PM (#42952387)
> So why cant US build its own Shenzhen or Hong Kong? taxes?

I would guess labor costs and practices are a big aspect. We send all our kids to stupid school instead of paying them pennies to get their tiny little fingers to work building micro-controllers for us and stuff.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by klipt on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @10:07PM (#42958526)
Surely these days much of that is done by robots?

And will only be increasingly robotic with advances in AI.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by myrmidon on Thursday February 06, 2025 @04:25AM (#42960623)
The degree of automation affects this very little, for 2 reasons:

- Anything you can easily automate (like pick & place machines for electronics, industrial robots for welding/assembly) will be automated anyway (no advantage for the US as location there)

- Even if you have 100% automation, you still need to pay (mainly) local workforce to set the whole thing up, and a lot of those jobs are even less competitive in the US wage-wise (construction crews, etc.)

Neither of those calculations is probably going to change much in the next decades. If you want to keep low-wage industry (like PCB assembly, heavy industry etc.) in a country like the US, then you will need to subsidise this with taxpayer money one way or the other (tariffs are essentially just that).

Agriculture is an example where this is already done (for obvious reasons related to people not starving in a trade crisis). But this is somewhat expensive (US agriculture subsidies are ~$20billion/year).

I think this will happen, and that some degree of it is a good idea (for strategic reasons), but framing this as a benefit for the average american is pretty much a lie-- because in the end, the taxpayer is on the hook for those subsidies, all those industries products are gonne get more expensive and other sectors are gonna get dragged down, too, because they have to compete for talent and might suffer from foreign trade retaliation.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by klipt on Friday February 07, 2025 @12:50AM (#42969826)
So China subsidizes a lot of their factories and now they have all the factories and they also have rising standards of living so ... seems to be working for them?
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by myrmidon on Friday February 07, 2025 @04:48AM (#42970983)
The factories are not in China because they were subsidized, they are there because wages are lower. Yes, some caveats apply, there is some network effect, and you need sufficient infrastructure, suitable workforce and administrative stability to get the process rolling, but the notion that China "bribed" those industries into their country is nonsensical.

Also note that this development (low-skill manufacturing migrates to growing, lower-wage country, then the migration propagates up the tech level) is something that occured basically exactly the same way in the past (with Japan in the 1990s).

> now they have all the factories and they also have rising standards of living so ... seems to be working for them?

This is basically the point of international trade.

Things also worked out for the US, because they reaped the fruits of that cheap Chinese labor-- all-American electronics would have been significantly more expensive.

I'd also like to point out that those living standards are WAY below US levels-- there is absolutely no way that US-americans with comparable education levels would be willing to work in comparable conditions.

Note also that artificially messing with this process has consequences: If the US had forced electronics and heavy industry to stay fully domestic starting in the 80s or so (with tariffs, regulations and subsidies), then their products would have stayed much less affordable for decades, and a lot of bright STEM graduates that made software/CPU development/Hi-tech happen might have taken cushy, tax-payer funded jobs instead...

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by saturn8601 on Saturday February 08, 2025 @04:15AM (#42981647)
China has a demographic collapse coming so there is probably baked in inflation coming in the 2030s. The era of cheap chinese junk might go away. It doesn't just mean Aliexpress/Temu junk. It means a lot of fun things we take for granted may not make sense in a more inflationary environment so they dont get made.

If you watch manufacturing videos, its crazy how many people actually come together to make the cheap mundane things we take for granted: For example, count the number of people who touch this random RGB bluetooth speaker: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFYxSX6xP2U

Maybe you could automate that, but it really would be more effort than its worth to set up robots to make what I assume is a fairly cheap product.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by fpoling on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @01:27PM (#42952938)
It is much more profitable to invest into financial industry in US than into manufacturing. So the latter attracts top talent.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by ta1243 on Thursday February 06, 2025 @04:22AM (#42960598)
Best engineers are working at shoveling more adverts down our throats, tracking our every thought to maximise the value they can extract for us.

The goal isn't to have 50 people selling a batch of capacitors for $10, it's to sell them to Alfie for $6, Barbara for $12, and because it's absolutely critical for Colin he gets to pay $623

The western world is about maximising the value middlemen can extract.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by bogantech on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @01:07PM (#42952642)
You can't even get a bare PCB manufactured anywhere else for a price even remotely close to that of JLC, PCBWay etc.

Component availability has nothing to do with that, JLC have always been way cheaper than US/EU board houses even before they started doing assembly services

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by Veliladon on Thursday February 06, 2025 @09:47AM (#42962859)
Their cheap as chips PCBs are garbage for anything but hobbyist use. They use crappy substrates and have poor tolerances. If you want decent quality substrates and decent quality finishes for fine pitched work the price quickly shoots up.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by Aurornis on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @12:04AM (#42944035)
> The question is how did we let it go this far? Why has there never been serious Western alternatives to JLCPCB, PCBWay, JLCCNC etc.? Has anyone asked themselves how these Chinese firms are so cheap?

It’s not really a secret. They have cheap labor. Very lax environmental standards (big deal for PCB manufacturing). They have a high density of manufacturing and production. One factory can get their materials and machines from other factories nearby. Their government manipulates exchange rates.

People are also quick to forget US companies that serve these same markets. OSH Park was doing cheap PCB panel share before JLCPCB was a common name. Boards manufactured right in the United States. They don’t have the volume of JLCPCB but they’ve been doing cheap boards for hobbyists for a long time: https://docs.oshpark.com/services/

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by pclmulqdq on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @12:12AM (#42944092)
Most US-based PCB manufacturers can do low-volume PCBs rather cheaply for you, but not quite at China prices. AdvancedPCB in the US has their "$33 each" which gets you a very quick turnaround on a pretty-good-tech 2-layer board for $100 total (minimum 3 boards). They do 4-layer PCBs for $66/board and they apparently also do RF materials for $100/board. Sierra Circuits, for example, also has similar prices. This is a market that exists.

This is not the price you get from China, but this is still a pretty damn good deal. When I was in college, $33 each was great (this was before JLC and PCBWay), and I would say the same for most hobby projects.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by Aurornis on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @12:42AM (#42944315)
OSH Park has been doing 4 layer boards for at $10 per square inch for a set of 3 for years. Shipping included. 2 layer for $5/sq in. Much cheaper for anything but the largest boards.

It was actually only recently that China low volume manufacturing beat out OSH Park for very small boards once you factored in shipping.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by pclmulqdq on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @12:58AM (#42944426)
At one point recently, I used OSH Park to make a PCB that was exactly 1 square inch, and I felt like I was stealing money from someone with how cheap it was.

For the record, college was more than 3 years ago for me, and $33/board (last I checked) does not beat any of the other prototyping services except at very large sizes - they go up to 60 sq in for that price.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by Animats on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @03:14AM (#42945534)
That's not bad. Sierra and Protologix are much more expensive.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by jdietrich on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @06:04AM (#42946844)
"Not quite at China prices" is something of an understatement. JLCPCB offer five 100mm*100mm 4-layer boards for $7. Not $7 each, $7 total for five boards. Shipping to Europe is $1.50.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by p_j_w on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @12:24PM (#42951936)
For a company doing R&D, this difference is so small it hardly matters. It's less than an hour of an engineer's time.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by saturn8601 on Saturday February 08, 2025 @04:21AM (#42981677)
If the whole Twitter -> X transition and DOGE has taught us anything, those costs don't magically disappear, they add up over time and get passed down as inflation. Are you really measuring an engineer's time properly? There is an implicit assumption that an engineers time is at 100% utilization which is never true. This mentality you described allows people to get sloppy with costs. At some point you need to do a form of Zero Based Budgeting.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by stingrae on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @12:08AM (#42944065)
In China, they compete with each other to get be the cheapest. Here (Bay Area) it feels like the PCB fab and assembly houses have decided to be higher priced because the defense contracts (and FAANG Quick turns) are willing to pay it.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by adgjlsfhk1 on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @12:16AM (#42944121)
I think your cause and effect is backwards. They target defense and FAANG R&D because there's no way you can compete on price when you have to pay your employees $20-30 an hour and you have to do small batches because you can't compete on price.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by stingrae on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @12:58AM (#42944428)
In China they are pushing automation. When you are charging $500+ a pcbs, you don't care as much.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by pclmulqdq on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @12:13AM (#42944100)
The assembly houses have done this, but the American PCB fabrication companies often have a "slow and cheap" service. They definitely optimize for the defense market, though.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by eru on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @01:02AM (#42944457)
Chinese labour isn't that cheap anymore.

Chinese wages are higher than those in Mexico for example.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by grumpy-de-sre on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @05:41AM (#42946667)
My impression, having visited the place, is that the Chinese laborers just work ridiculously hard. Part of this is due to culture and very heavy handed management, part of this due to the working class seeing huge returns on their labor (wealth has grown exponentially in their own lifetimes).
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by numpad0 on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @07:06AM (#42947351)
Don't know about China specifically, but "working ridiculously hard" is just "working" if everyone around is doing the same and you had no points of comparison.

If you've seen enough people graduating into non-working class, or you have had yourself, that changes your perspective.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by grumpy-de-sre on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @07:19AM (#42947458)
I guess that would add credence to the culture element. All of east Asian shares in this practice really. Given a structure/framework in which to work productively, they tend to really crush it economically. However it seems this often comes at the expense of other aspects of society (underemployment, low fertility rates, elder poverty, deflation etc).
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by eru on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @06:40PM (#42956975)
Looking broader at South East Asia, the Chinese minorities in countries around the region are know for working hard and being successful, often more so than other locals.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by grumpy-de-sre on Thursday February 06, 2025 @05:01AM (#42960844)
I'm inclined to think about it in terms of east Asians than strictly ethnically Chinese. You see the exact same attitudes to work in Korea and Japan. Confucianism is a powerful force in the region.

Suffice to say don't underestimate the work ethic and skill of Chinese laborers.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by eru on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @06:28AM (#42947029)
Going a bit on a tangent:

I grew up in Europe, but am now living in Singapore. It's interesting: despite all the PRC's advances and progress in the last few decades, they are still the poorest Chinese-majority country. You can go even wider, and look at countries with sizeable Chinese minorities, like Malaysia or Thailand, and I think you will find that the average ethnic Chinese person there also makes more than the average ethnic Chinese person does in the PRC.

I haven't checked the numbers for all of the relevant countries, but I think it's fair to say that by and large, PR China has the poorest ethnically Chinese people.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by HPsquared on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @06:57AM (#42947277)
Similarly the UK is pretty much the poorest Anglo country. It seems to be a pattern where the most ambitious/productive types "boil off" to where there is more opportunity. I suspect this pattern is reflected with most diaspora groups.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by neom on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @08:57AM (#42948535)
It also begets the other, a place that has that opportunity attracts people who want to work, people who want to work build opportunity, attract more people, etc. Once you're in a death spiral of people who don't want to work and you're not specifically building socialism, you end up in this half functional dead state like my country (Canada). I always say, I honestly don't care if we do communism or capitalism just pick one and do it well.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by eru on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @06:36PM (#42956942)
The best run and most successful socialist country ever was East Germany.

Even by global standards (compared against all countries) it did fairly well. By socialist standards it did really well. By German standards, it did so much worse than Austria, Switzerland or West Germany.

I don't think you want that for Canada. And that's pretty much a best case outcome.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by lazylizard on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @11:08AM (#42950532)
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overseas_Chinese

how to quantify "by and large"? there's not many chinese people outside china and most of them left china in the last 100 years in search of better lives.

and usa and singapore are rich?

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by eru on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @06:38PM (#42956963)
USA and Singapore are stinking rich, yes.

> [...] there's not many chinese people outside china and most of them left china in the last 100 years in search of better lives.

Wikipedia says:

> Overseas Chinese people are people of Chinese origin who reside outside Greater China (mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan).[20] As of 2011, there were over 40.3 million overseas Chinese.[8]

40.3 million is quite a few. And they form significant minorities in many South East Asian countries.

But you are right that eg Germany or South Sudon don't really have enough Chinese people to really say much about them there.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by jaredklewis on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @12:26AM (#42944206)
> The question is how did we let it go this far?

Because allowing countries to maximize their comparative advantages is great for economic growth. It doesn’t make sense for every nation on earth to have their own copy of every industrial sector. We don’t need all nations to manufacture their own jet engines, oil tankers, t-shirts, and Tylenol. Trade is good.

The idea that China is a major security threat is basically brand new. Half of century of economic policy can’t be reversed in 5 years.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by roamerz on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @01:56AM (#42944867)
>>The idea that China is a major security threat is basically brand new

You're kidding right?

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by jaredklewis on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @02:48AM (#42945301)
No. I guess it’s a matter of degree but my memory of the 90s, 00s and even early 2010s the middle east and North Korea both received far more attention from the press and politicians than China. China seemed to be on a trajectory towards a free market and less repressive government. I don’t feel like the current “cold war” esque situation set in until the late 2010s but maybe I’m wrong? What’s your take?
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by mitthrowaway2 on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @03:46AM (#42945774)
It's been a gradual shift with rising and falling tensions and various flare-ups, but if I had to pick a date I would pin it to around 2012, when Xi Jinping became the leader of China and began taking a more hardline stance.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by vaccineai on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @02:57AM (#42945387)
You are so very wrong.

Just one example around free market: China's private sector has lost ground as state sector has gained share among top corporations since 2021 https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2024/chinas-privat...

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by newswasboring on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @03:17AM (#42945561)
2021 is not recent for you?
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by vaccineai on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @03:23AM (#42945619)
I'm responding to "China seemed to be on a trajectory towards a free market and less repressive government"
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by newswasboring on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @04:08AM (#42945951)
I thought the point being made was that this trajectory has been reversed recently.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by roamerz on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @12:21PM (#42951889)
You're right it's definitely a matter of degree. And I would have to say early 2000 when Clinton signed the trade agreement with them. That is when our manufacturing capacity started moving to China and with that our security. It's of course way more complex than that but..
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by suraci on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @02:40AM (#42945229)
timing is important

China is always a 'security threat' to the US since 1946, but it never get a high priority untill now

- 1946-1991 Cold War with Soviet - 2001-2017 Global War on Terror in MiddleEast - 2018-now Trade War and Chip War with China

I highly doubt the memory capacity of americans, it seems like americans can only remember things that are "present"

it's just like the meme

1. Remove the chip 2. Overwrite Iraq -> China 3. Insert the chip click 4. "China is our destined enemy"

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by ta20240528 on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @04:40AM (#42946198)
> China is always a 'security threat' to the US

Only because its been recently revealed that everyone is a security threat to the US.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by forgetfreeman on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @02:45AM (#42945269)
Great for who's economic growth? As in, when staring at the graph of GDP vs wages plotted over the last 50 years, that big-ass pie slice that everyone's excited about? That appears to have ended up in roughly 800 people's pockets. Meanwhile even mention domestic manufacturing in the country that basically invented consumer electronics and kazoo music starts playing in the background. grits teeth We knew NAFTA was bullshit, we knew it was going to break basically everything, and yet folks just couldn't quite get mad enough to scare the political elite badly enough to back off. I love my country, we have always been at war with Eurasia, I am going the fuck to bed.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by anavat on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @06:38AM (#42947108)
For humanity? It is the same reason most of us don't grow our food or make our shoes. Specialization makes a lot of sense. Western tech wouldn't have been able to grow as fast if electronics manufacturing were not concentrated in China. It is (was?) a win-win.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by TheOtherHobbes on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @06:57AM (#42947274)
One of those "wins" was based entirely on toxic wealth hoarding by financial elites, which is why we are we are, with the flailing remains of a US government taking a hatchet to science and education while infrastructure crumbles around it, and climate change alternately floods and burns prime real estate.

So in reality, not so much.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by eastbound on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @01:10AM (#42944529)
> The idea that China is a major security threat is basically brand new

That’s what I was taught when I grew up in the 1989ies.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by brabel on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @01:44AM (#42944779)
> The idea that China is a major security threat is basically brand new.

And as far as I can see, that idea comes from China simply having grown its economy to a size comparable to that of the USA, nothing else?

But everyone during the Chinese miracle growth (from 1980's to today) expected China would've become the largest economy in the world by the 2020's. I guess people just didn't really take that seriously until it actually became true?

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by maxwindiff on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @03:06AM (#42945464)
We hoped China would grow into a Korea or Japan, instead we got ourselves a Russia.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by Ekaros on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @05:24AM (#42946537)
So in essence a colony or puppet state? Thankfully China avoided that. And is not controlled by others like Soviet satellites were.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by geenkeuse on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @05:40AM (#42946652)
Lol. you are speaking like a parent. Only China was never your child, like Korea and Japan was. You never overpowered or controlled them and forced them into whatever mold you wanted. You were never in control of China.

While you were basking in your arrogance, they overtook you. And now you have to deal with that. People are literally saying how they cannot do their jobs now that their stuff is not coming in from China. Why is that? You thought you were exploiting cheap labour, but meanwhile you were making them smarter with every bit of "menial" work you gave them. Now they can do anything that you can do, and a lot of it they can do better and cheaper. You are more dependent on them then they are on you. But your ego refuses to let you see it.

Here is some comparison from an uneducated nonprofessional...America is a company masquerading as a country. China is a country run like a business. Once you know the difference it will inform you of the way forward...Dankie

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by jazz9k on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @08:15AM (#42948040)
It's funny because Trump saw this years ago and the entire point of the tariff is to gain Chinese manufacturing independance.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by suraci on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @11:14PM (#42959010)
> America is a company masquerading as a country

wow, didn't expect to see such insight here

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by elfbargpt on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @02:40AM (#42945231)
They expected China to grow in a way that would lead to the "west" exerting much more control over China than they ended up with today. Basically they wanted more western-style capitalism, reduction of state control, etc...

Now China is very strong, and the west exerts very little influence

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by vaccineai on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @03:12AM (#42945510)
China is weak, its current economic engines of real estate and internal consumption has failed. It is currently heavily dependent on export, of which, sanctions and tariffs on China would wreck their economy.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by elfbargpt on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @03:58AM (#42945871)
They account for 30% of global manufacturing, have the second largest GDP (largest GDP PPP), and are rapidly developing in the tech sector. Not weak by any means
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by TheOtherHobbes on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @06:53AM (#42947247)
China would have a hard time economically without being able to sell to the US. But it's been developing markets and economies in Rest of World, especially Africa. And its internal market is huge.

Meanwhile this is a thread about the US tech and retail sectors being unable to survive at all without imports from China.

Turns out offshoring was one of the most self-harmingly stupid decisions in US economic history.

Still - at least it prevented worker unionisation. So that was such a win for corporate America.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by zxilly on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @12:38PM (#42952157)
"tariffs"

My memory is not very good, but it seems that something similar has happened 4 years ago, do you remember?

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by throw310822 on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @02:09AM (#42944960)
Exactly. We knew perfectly well it was coming, for decades, and we knew perfectly well the US would have put up a fight to prevent it. Not a competition, a fight: real and fake accusations, FUD, tariffs, or even actual war.

Now the time has come and we're in the middle of it. At least, I hope this is not just the beginning.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by KerrAvon on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @11:21AM (#42950768)
China is a nuclear power and has been recognized as a major security threat since they acquired nuclear weapons (in the sixties?).

But your last sentence is true. Politicians and corporate executives failing to accurately extrapolate long-term consequences have not done us any favors over the past 50 years, and now we’re super fucked. It’d be hard even if we still had a competent government instead of the smoking ruin in progress.

(Thomas Friedman and his globalization-is-brilliant shtick making people think this was all OK wasn’t great either.)

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by likeabatterycar on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @12:44AM (#42944326)
> Why has there never been serious Western alternatives to JLCPCB, PCBWay, JLCCNC etc.?

Because the West has to actually follow environmental and safety regulations. As opposed to write them down on paper and wipe your ass with it when the West isn't looking.

Evidence: I watched a tour video from one of these Chinese PCB houses and some of the workers were wearing surgical masks.

Not for COVID mind you, for presiding over open vats of boiling poison that would need a chemical respirator in any responsible country.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by PeterStuer on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @02:12AM (#42944989)
"Because the West has to actually follow environmental and safety regulations"

... that can only exist because they can circumvent them by offshoring all their production to the East and South. If they actually wanted to comply rather than bypass said regulations they would have to curb consumption for which there would not be support.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by likeabatterycar on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @02:22AM (#42945062)
Next you're going to tell me that the cobalt used to make batteries for the electric vehicles literally saving the environment right now in the West is being mined by enslaved children in the Congo with archaic hand tools and no PPE under inconceivable conditions.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by LinXitoW on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @05:23AM (#42946529)
No, I'd tell you that the cobalt for electric cars is only a tiny fraction of the total cobalt used, and that combustion engines also need a lot, AND that there's less un-ethical sources of cobalt that many manufacturers use.

But that's the nitpicker in me. The general point that our over-consumption drives like 80% of the bad things in the world still stands. The only real solution is to consume less.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by jdietrich on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @06:08AM (#42946874)
BYD and CATL are using cobalt-free chemistry in most of their batteries. I suppose that makes the Chinese evil for stealing the bread from Congolese children's mouths.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_iron_phosphate_battery

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by themaninthedark on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @09:55AM (#42949281)
Why would there be no support for products if they were made in compliance with environmental and safety regulations? Or why would people not be able to consume them?
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by Freedom2 on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @01:12AM (#42944533)
Given how much the US wants to deregulate everything, perhaps it can become the Shenzhen of the West. And not in the good way.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by ab5tract on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @03:02AM (#42945438)
*A handful of oligarchs and their useful idiots in the US.

Fixed that for you.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by suraci on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @01:22AM (#42944611)
I post this elsewhere, i'll just put it here again:

Due to underdeveloped economies, developing countries cannot avoid economic dependence on developed countries, especially in areas such as high technology, equipment, and precision instruments. However, this dependence varies depending on the development stage of each country. For example, African nations primarily require food to sustain basic living conditions.

Regardless of their specific needs, this situation has resulted in a unique exchange mechanism: developing countries must offer their best products in exchange for goods from developed countries. As a result, people in developing countries are unable to enjoy the finest products produced in their own countries, and sometimes not even second-tier products, as these are reserved for foreign consumers.

The U.S. market features products from various countries and regions, including China, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Jamaica, and Mexico. The world's finest products flow into the U.S. market in exchange for U.S. dollars. As everyone competes to obtain dollars, competition intensifies, leading to high product quality and low prices. This has created unprecedented prosperity in the U.S. market. This outcome is a result of market mechanisms and the benefits that the U.S. has gained from the global status of the dollar, established by the Bretton Woods Conference after World War II.

However, the massive influx of foreign products into the U.S. has also impacted its domestic industries, causing factory closures and rising unemployment. This issue cannot be ignored, which is why the forces of free trade and protectionism in the U.S. have been in constant conflict.

— Wang Huning, America Against America

as long as the US still export USD to exchange products, this situation will not change

> how these Chinese firms are so cheap?

believe me, we don't want this, we have no choice, just like all other 3rd countries, cheap products, cheap minerals, cheap men and women, all running to the US to be exchanged for dollars

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by bigbacaloa on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @01:36AM (#42944719)
For those that don't know, Wang hunting wrote that in 1991! Now he is one of the top dogs in the Chinese government ....
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by thesaintlives on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @01:38AM (#42944735)
Because it is not $120 of raw material...
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by somenameforme on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @01:46AM (#42944794)
Prices in the West are maximized with the goal of reaching the peak point on the supply vs demand curve. Prices in the East, and China in particular, are minimized [presumably?] with the goal of maximizing longterm marketshare. One of the easiest examples of this is water [1] because it's a relatively low-labor, low-processing industry. Yet a bottle of water in the West tends to cost about 700% more than a bottle of water in Asia. As a result of this I can buy a bottle of water in the middle of the desert in the Mideast for a tiny fraction of what I'd pay in Michigan which, alone, has ~20% of the entire world's fresh water supply.

This is also why GDP is extremely misleading. PPP is supposed to account for these differences but often is often wrong by a rather wide margin for many critical industries.

[1] - https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/bottled-w...

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by Peteragain on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @02:16AM (#42945015)
Good point. Capitalism's fundamental is RoI, and in China the time scale is "forever" while in the venture capital market it's 5 years max.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by vaccineai on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @02:38AM (#42945210)
Chinese government only thinks in terms of months, not forever. Why do you think they overbuilt housing and crashed the economy? It's because the government officials want to quickly cash out and escape to other countries.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by Daishiman on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @03:16AM (#42945556)
Building out more high-speed rail interconnections than any other part in the world is a well-known sign of a country that thinks short-term.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by bobthepanda on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @03:28AM (#42945652)
It’s short-termism but not the kind you first think of in the West.

Chinese local officials are expected to meet and exceed targets for GDP growth. Investment is GDP growth, so officials are incentivized to build lots of flashy projects to boost growth even if there isn’t a clear need for them.

The central government is so concerned with local government spending that has resulted that it has ordered 12 provinces to halt new projects: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-orders-indebted-lo...

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by HPsquared on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @06:49AM (#42947216)
It's amazing how different accounting systems can affect decision-making.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by Daishiman on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @01:31PM (#42952981)
That's... worse than the US not building any infrastructure?
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by bobthepanda on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @02:49PM (#42954093)
Is built infrastructure any good if it has to close or never operates? https://english.pardafas.com/china-sees-more-stations-shut-d...

The local government debt burden that has resulted has also started resulting in other services getting cut, like local bus services ceasing to operate. What good is a high speed rail line you can't get to? https://www.asianews.it/news-en/Chinese-bus-crisis,-a-new-bu...

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by suraci on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @11:09PM (#42958975)
it's really weired because you seem know very much abt china but still are very misleaded

i'm really curious about how you get those information about china, because those information are mostly target to domestic chinese, rarely go abroad, the ultimate purpose of these information is to privatize state-owned enterprises(or opposite, it's complex, even for most Chinese live in China)

like,

> It calls on them to ensure that funding for public transport is included in their budgets, so that they can provide bus service operators with financial subsidies in a timely manner

if you know more abt it, you'll know the bogged bus service is a very classic example to show what'll happened if you handle your public service to a private enterprise, yes, not like China Railway, that bus operator is not a state-owned company, which was threating local gov for subsidies, would be better if they managed to force the local gov acquisite their shit

i sincerely you to dig more by yourself, be cautious with your sources

and if you want to know more abt the debt crisis in China, welcome to ask, a little tip, the keyword is 'bridge', not 'bus' or 'railway'

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by vaccineai on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @03:22AM (#42945607)
Building out mostly unused high-speed rail interconnections and being in debt is a well-known sign of a country that thinks short-term. the local government gets paid for building these useless rails out.

China Sees More Stations Shut Down as High-Speed Rail Debt Crisis Deepens https://english.pardafas.com/china-sees-more-stations-shut-d...

China’s High-Speed Rail Is Dead: Over 4,000 Ghostly Stations, Billions Spent, No Passengers https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhclmurNUuw

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by blitzar on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @04:12AM (#42945974)
Building nothing and being in even more in debt is the high IQ play.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by frikskit on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @04:46AM (#42946250)
First time I genuinely LOL’d on HN
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by Maken on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @04:29AM (#42946106)
Wasn't the housing crisis mostly the Chinese middle class trying to secure their savings from inflation by investing in real state?
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by Sabinus on Thursday February 06, 2025 @06:34PM (#42967590)
Not from my understanding.

Land sales/leases are one of the few ways the local governments can make money, so they overdid approvals and subsidies.

The Communist party also imposed strict capital controls so the middle class couldn't invest worldwide. Combine that with a cultural desire for housing, and you have a huge over investment in Chinese housing.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by ygouzerh on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @01:58AM (#42944885)
In a world based on mutual respects instead of trading wars, there should be no point to redo everything again in every country. If one country is very good at doing something, why try to re-implement it again?
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by anonzzzies on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @02:45AM (#42945267)
That doesn't exist though; politician use globalism to paint all negative stuff (immigration, inflation, wars, climate change, whatever), people (including them) start to believe in it and there we are. Every rich country/country group will need to implement everything (energy, military, tech, food, health, etc) themselves to sustain themselves and 'normally' drive trade to cut prices but at any moment be able to fold into itself again.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by OvidNaso on Thursday February 06, 2025 @03:33AM (#42960321)
Well we're finding out right now aren't we. Funny enough the guy who had such the beautiful vision that humanity was meant for the stars is at the center of disproving his life's work and cementing that were doomed for domestic squabbles until the end.
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by logifail on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @02:09AM (#42944959)
> Why has there never been serious Western alternatives to JLCPCB, PCBWay, JLCCNC etc? Has anyone asked themselves how these Chinese firms are so cheap?

Of course we've asked ourselves that, we know the answers too! Manufacturing costs are so low, and the cost of shipping is so low.

I recently made contact with a manufacturer at a trade fair in Europe.

I was wanting a sample of their product, they had one at their stand - I had it in my hands - but due to time constraints we didn't have time to seal the deal on the day and I had to leave town.

So they ended up taking the item all the way back to Asia, and then a week or so later air-freighted it all the way back to Europe. Shipping cost was approx USD55, they shipped it out on a Friday, it was delivered on the Monday.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by altairprime on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @02:22AM (#42945061)
The opportunities for entrepreneurs to learn the necessary prereqs to launch such startups are no longer present. US political leaders and businesses responsible for fiscal policy and (anti-)taxation lobbying do not consider “investment in education of industrial workers” to be a relevant enough factor in domestic manufacturing security to be worth taxing, spending, or lobbying for. The fiscal climate for launching new businesses of this sort is also now extremely hostile; entrepreneurs are expected to self-fund their businesses, which is now due to wage deflation wholly incompatible with high-capex industries like electronics; or to persuade a VC investor to bet on them, which is how we get Juicero; or to pursue subscription-based revenues, which is how we get the Cricut revolt of a couple years back; or to persuade a bank to take a risk on a large capex loan with uncertain outcomes, when banks can make more reliable money gambling on financial derivatives and government bailouts and monetary policy does not compel them to loan out excess reserves.

This is the long con of Reagan in the 80s: extracting value and diverting profits from households to shareholders will only get you a few decades before the last well-trained, well-funded workforce ages out and no one’s left to prop up the scam. In SimCity terms, the US is collapsing from High-Density Industrial to Medium-Density Industrial because all the schools had their funding cut for 50 years while the city budget has Commercial taxes set to 0%. The solutions are similarly apparent to any SimCity player, but deeply unpalatable for the real-world beneficiaries — the 0.1% — that are now accustomed to their diverted income. Ironically, one of the best ways to learn more about the grifter’s mindset is to read Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand; not because she proposed a workable solution or because it’s a good or bad novel, but because her portrayal of the grifter sociopathy is dead-on accurate for what we now see happening. Or, watch the TV show Leverage; the villains are often a stellar model of the same.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by Animats on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @03:13AM (#42945524)
There are US PCB makers who do prototypes. Sierra Circuits [1] is in Sunnyvale, CA. Pentalogix is near Portland, OR.[2] But 5 small boards will cost about US$75 each.

[1] https://www.protoexpress.com

[2] https://www.pentalogix.com/

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by bsdice on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @05:59AM (#42946813)
Check AislerHQ on Twitter, based in Germany and should not be affected from the block.

No affiliation except that I like to look at naked PCBs.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by mschuster91 on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @06:54AM (#42947255)
> Why has there never been serious Western alternatives to JLCPCB, PCBWay, JLCCNC etc.?

We have our own PCB shops but they are like double or quadruple the price of Chinese shops because of labor costs and a lack of investment capital to introduce automation.

> Has anyone asked themselves how these Chinese firms are so cheap?

As said, extremely low labor costs plus ecosystem efficiencies. When the shop making capacitors by the container load is one block away there's barely any handling effort or stockpiling required, whereas domestic Western shops have to keep much more stockpiles.

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by MSFT_Edging on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @07:36AM (#42947632)
> The question is how did we let it go this far?

I've tried to get PCBs fab'd stateside and I think its multidimensional. I didn't NEED to get them made stateside, but I wanted to try. The price for a board for a run of ~150 fairly simple PCBs was 2-3x what the chinese fabs offered. On top of that, American fabs are typically for ITAR/defense contract work. They'll snub their nose at small orders, give you the runaround, etc.

When working with Chinese fabs, the main downside is the time difference. JLC and PCBWay have both been great to work with, offer a good price, especially for a hobbyist(which is important if you want more hardware R&D).

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by beej71 on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @09:28AM (#42948901)
> The question is how did we let it go this far?

It's an optimized market, isn't it? Didn't it naturally go this far?

Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by ge96 on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @11:02AM (#42950442)
OSHPark but more expensive
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by 486sx33 on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @08:22PM (#42957787)
Apple uses fedex straight from Shanghai I’m sure that’s an option too
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by ruskyhacker on Thursday February 06, 2025 @07:26PM (#42967939)
I believe the answer is "economies of scale"
Re:Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong by corimaith on Friday February 07, 2025 @06:31AM (#42971480)
The other posters are describing the state of China right now, so I'll describe things on a more macroeconomic perspective.

The lack of manufacturing in the US can be linked to the lack of investment from the low savings rate as the flipside of high consumption, and a strong dollar (relative to surplus countries like China) that both boosts imports, driving consumption even higher than lowering savings rate, and weak export competiveness.

That lack of savings manifests as the Current Account Deficit, and normally the dollar should weaken due to it, strengthening exports and naturally rebalancing the trade. Unfortunately, because the rest of the world does the opposite in having an abnormally high level of savings, they push all their capital into the USA. This overall appreciates the dollar, and is good for the finance industry, but persistently doing this for 40 years has basically destroyed US manufacturing.