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Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by class3shock on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:02AM (#42061623)
The economy I think was the huge sticking point. You can't have everyone in your party saying "the economy is good, it's growing better than ever, look at all the jobs, etc." while literally no average person is seeing that. They are so out of touch that they think if finance/econ majors on tv say the economy is doing good than it's doing good.

Compared to pre-pandemic - Housing prices have shot up incredibly - Loan interest rates are two or three times higher - Every day goods are higher - Car prices are higher - Insurance is higher - Utilities are higher

And that would be fine, prices go up over time after all, but all of that is on the back of pay, that for most people, has not gone up anywhere close to enough to cover all of that, if it's gone up at all.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by gruez on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:16AM (#42061813)
>And that would be fine, prices go up over time after all, but all of that is on the back of pay, that for most people, has not gone up anywhere close to enough to cover all of that, if it's gone up at all.

BLS data shows real (ie. inflation adjusted) wages has gone up since the pandemic.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by class3shock on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:50AM (#42062255)
Their methodology produces results that are not representative of the economic situation of average american families.

The average household income is 80k(ish) the average house is 420k(ish)

In Bethlehem, PA (a fairly middle of the road place tax wise) that means $5050 take home pay a month and a mortgage payment (FHA 3.5 down, 6.7 interest) of $2650 a month. That is more than half your pay just on a mortgage, not pmi, not insurance, not utilities, not anything else. Do this calculation across the country with localized numbers, do it with rent instead. Add a car and insurance for it into the mix. Then try adding in health insurance, groceries, etc. You are going to find that the numbers result in average people being squeezed and guess what? That lines up with peoples actual experience.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/paycheck-to-paycheck-definition...

https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2024/amid-a-resilient...

My interpretation of this is that pay has not kept up with inflation.

Edited to be less witty

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by itissid on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:09AM (#42062509)
There was a graphic in John Kings (CNN). Segment that showed a vast majority of the counties had wages falling behind inflation. This is just extremely real for the 5k(ish) takehome pay guy. I noticed the 4.5 ish $ eggs and milk.

The overall situation of housing and college costs have been increasing for a while this last round of inflation really was a big part of the last straw.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by gruez on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:03AM (#42064337)
>There was a graphic in John Kings (CNN). Segment that showed a vast majority of the counties had wages falling behind inflation.

Source? Is this simply because rural counties are doing worse than urbanized counties, and there are more rural counties than urbanized counties, such that if you don't account for population you'll come to the conclusion that "vast majority of the counties had wages falling behind inflation", even though that's not true for the country as a whole?

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by tanjtanjtanj on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:00AM (#42063338)
A $2650 mortgage in Bethlehem PA is a very, very big house. You can’t apply the average mortgage price to a place where you can get a 2000 sqft house for under $200K. Additionally Bethlehem PA is an above average area for PA when it comes to affluence.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by thrwaway1985882 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:48AM (#42064088)
The median price per square foot in the US is $226[0]. The insanely economically depressed rust belt area where I was born has a median price over $150 per square foot (you do _not_ want to live there). I suspect your mental model of housing prices is anchored in the past when the world has moved on.

[0]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDLISPRIPERSQUFEEUS

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by tanjtanjtanj on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @12:01PM (#42065314)
Okay, but we were not talking about the median house, we are talking about Bethlehem, PA. I got my data by going to Zillow and seeing that there are many 10s of houses near the 2K sqft mark that cost around $200k. You can do the same yourself.

Pennsylvania did not experience the same uplift in housing prices in 2020-2022 that much of the rest of the nation did as people are net leaving the state.

PA is actually one of the places least affected by inflation not just in the US but in the world.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by thrwaway1985882 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @12:15PM (#42065558)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDLISPRIPERSQUFEE10900

The median home in the Bethlehem, PA core based statistical area costs $200 per square foot in October 2024. In October 2019, it cost $120 per square foot.

I'm sure you can find homes that list for half the cost per square foot just as well as someone could find homes that list for double the cost per square foot. That's why the median is useful – and it has increased 66% over the last five years.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by class3shock on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @01:24PM (#42066828)
Just fyi, I just used it for a location for a online calculator to grab tax for because PA is fairly middle of the road in taxes. If you want to do the math for Bethlehem PA specifically look up the average house sale price and the average income and take a look.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by kalkin on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:30AM (#42064753)
The question is supposedly whether things are better or worse, not whether they're "good enough" in some abstract way.

If you think things aren't good enough for an average person in one of the statistically best periods a capitalist economy has ever seen, there are redistributive alternatives. That doesn't seem to be what Trump voters are expecting. Instead there seems to be a nostalgia for past better times, which isn't really explained by "people are squeezed" based on math that would almost certainly have worked out just as tightly ten years ago.

Something else is going on. I don't claim to have a full explanation but none of the attempts to "fix" BLS statistics that I've seen have been more persuasive than this.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by Jeff_Brown on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:10PM (#42070265)
You responded to a statement about change by talking about state. Both things are true: that average people have it better and that they have it hard.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by no_wizard on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:38AM (#42062093)
But still haven’t matched productivity gains since the 1970s[0]

Everyone likes to point this out like it somehow made up for all the wage stagnation of the last 40 years and it most definitely did not.

Not to mention these wage gains are slowing fast.

[0]: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/19/heres-how-labor-dynamism-aff....

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by gruez on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:22AM (#42064638)
>But still haven’t matched productivity gains since the 1970s[0]

The gap might be real, but it's existed for decades. Moreover at least when it comes to explaining why people voted for Trump: while I have no data to support it, "we're poorer because of inflation" is a much more popular sentiment/election issue than "the top 1% are taking the gains for themselves", especially among republican voters.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by no_wizard on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @02:32PM (#42067960)
Considering his very pronounced and persistent support of broad tariffs on all imports, I'm not sure why people would vote for Trump and the Republican platform he steers if they're worried about the economy and prices. This will absolutely drive prices up across the board, exacerbating the situation, while the Republican platform has no proposal for even attempting to offset that, they also want to put the boots on the neck of labor, as it were (see Project 2025 or even the miniaturized version Agenda 47)
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by endemic on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @03:29PM (#42068843)
> the top 1% are taking the gains for themselves

They deserved it because they worked hard for it!

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by ggu7hgfk8j on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:41AM (#42062136)
It's worth keeping in mind that inflation is a theoretical construct based on assumptions and formulas that may not apply for every individual or subpopulation.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by gruez on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:47AM (#42062205)
>It's worth keeping in mind that inflation is a theoretical construct based on assumptions and formulas

That might be so, but it's better than people's vibes, which famously flip-flops based on whether their preferred party is in power.

>that may not apply for every individual or subpopulation

I never claimed that, but the parent comment did imply real wages have not gone up "for most people".

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by auggierose on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:08AM (#42063465)
So, CPI adjusted it means that median people are "doing better" about $30 (also CPI adjusted) than in 1980 per week? Given all the "progress" in that time, that is just not enough, and that is what people feel. People feel they don't have the money to participate in modern life, and yeah, an extra $30 per week is definitely not enough to do that.

Also, the median stats say nothing about how people below it are doing. By definition, that is 50%, and that is also about the number of people voting for Trump, alongside your run-of-the-mill racists and fascists.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by gruez on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:10AM (#42064432)
>So, CPI adjusted it means that median people are "doing better" about $30 (also CPI adjusted) than in 1980 per week?

They're actually doing about $50 better, because there was a recession in 1980. Moreover, the $50 (or $30) dollars are "1982-84 CPI Adjusted Dollars", not today's dollars. In today's dollars it would be $158.28 (or $94.97). Moreover, given most people's expectation and discussion for income increases are the raw dollar amounts (ie. not inflation adjusted), it's not a fair benchmark for real wage increases.

>By definition, that is 50%, and that is also about the number of people voting for Trump, alongside your run-of-the-mill racists and fascists.

Given how the votes are roughly 50-50, you can make the opposite argument for Harris, replacing "racists and fascists" with "college students and woke activists".

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by auggierose on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @06:16PM (#42071054)
That is about $650 more per month, inflation adjusted in todays dollars, for 45 years of progress?

> Given how the votes are roughly 50-50, you can make the opposite argument for Harris, replacing "racists and fascists" with "college students and woke activists".

Yeah, that is exactly what I am saying. And it seems to bear out: In the demography of income of > 100K, democrats win, below it, Trump wins.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by AnimalMuppet on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:30AM (#42061981)
The data may show that. The people don't feel that. (Many of them don't see it in their budgets, either.)
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by ZeroGravitas on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:01AM (#42062402)
Voting for the guy that complained American wages were too high and thinks tariffs are paid by other countries will definitely not help.

Please be more specific if you are explaining why American voters have got angry and done something stupid that will make things worse or if you are defending that stupidity as a good thing that will help the situation you are talking about.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by toomuchtodo on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:44AM (#42063037)
Like Brexit, you have to let the electorate find out the hard way.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by schnebbau on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:46AM (#42063069)
My theory is that social media has given people this skewed perspective of reality where everyone else appears to be rich and living in luxury.

This makes their own lives, in which they are still better off than 99.9% of the history of humanity, feel worse.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by nsxwolf on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:40AM (#42063968)
When your lifestyle suddenly has to change in drastic ways because of a rapid increase in prices none of this makes anyone feel any better. "Think about how much worse it COULD be, kids!"
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by gruez on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:11AM (#42064457)
>When your lifestyle suddenly has to change in drastic ways because of a rapid increase in prices

Where's the evidence this is happening for a majority (or even something vaguely resembling one) of people? I've already posted official statistics that show inflation adjusted median wages are up.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by nsxwolf on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:25AM (#42064678)
Ok, well, my wages aren't up, and everybody I know's wages aren't up either. Being told this over and over again, that everything is great, despite what's obvious to our own personal experience is why you got the result you got today.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by no_wizard on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:23AM (#42063703)
or you know, wages stagnated for 40 years and haven't kept pace with productivity gains, and it was inevitable that this would wear most American citizens down and we'd feel it more and more over time.

The most recent wage gains failed to make up for this fact

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/19/heres-how-labor-dynamism-aff...

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by no_wizard on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:43AM (#42062164)
But it’s a skewed picture of the actuality, which that those wage gains didn’t make up for the 40 years of stagnation preceding it.

If wage gains kept pace with productivity gains it’d be a very different and vastly better economic story for the average American

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by gruez on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:13AM (#42064486)
>which that those wage gains didn’t make up for the 40 years of stagnation preceding it.

It stagnated in 2008-2016 but they still voted for obama, but when it finally started rising in 2016 they voted for trump?

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by no_wizard on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @02:47PM (#42068224)
It wasn't really rising in 2016. The flat wage growth lasted past 2020, with a relatively recent blip, but it has not meaningfully risen to outpace the stagnation that existed for decades.

If wages increased with productivity increases we'd be in better shape overall as a society, but here we are.

[dead]
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by InDubioProRubio on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:58AM (#42062360)
Reality is always a social construct, and by having air superiority you can talk anything into reality.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by croes on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:39AM (#42062112)
You don’t feel earth rotation either but it still exists.

You can’t argue about feelings

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by psychoslave on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:24AM (#42062721)
People definitely can feel the impact of earth rotation on a daily basis. They literally would not even have the notion of a day without it actually.

https://sciencenotes.org/what-would-happen-if-the-earth-stop...

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by croes on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:31AM (#42062829)
You can measure the effects but people don’t feel it, just ask flat earthers
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by oefrha on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:55AM (#42062321)
When (some) people feel they’re worse off and blame it on the government, telling them government produced statistics says they’re actually better off is totally going to make them trust the government more. /s

Edit: Without the snark, lots of people believe their rent, grocery bills, energy bills etc. have gone up a lot more than official inflation numbers (and that can be true even if the inflation numbers are “accurate” for some definition of accurate), and you’re not going to convince them using anything derived from these inflation numbers.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by otteromkram on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:32AM (#42062003)
We're still at 390 levels of cost in a 370 world.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by gruez on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:34AM (#42062033)
>real (ie. inflation adjusted) wages
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by no_wizard on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:15AM (#42061786)
And Trumps proposed tariffs will only accelerate price increases[0]

It’s clear it has support from rank and file republicans as well, it is more than feasible that if republicans win the house too we will see tariffs in short order

[0]: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/trumps-new-tariff-proposa...

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by mastax on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:29AM (#42061973)
The president has huge amounts of executive authority over tariffs. I don’t know where the boundaries are but I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw huge tariff increases in the first hundred days.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by greentxt on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:56AM (#42063256)
Right. You would want to do it immediately so that initial hits to economy can be claimed as belonging to Biden. And then you can cut the tarrifs and make things improve.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by vundercind on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:29AM (#42063802)
Nah, he’ll make the Fed a political appointment and goose the economy that way, already seemed pretty annoyed that he didn’t have direct control of it last time and seemed to partially blame that for his loss. His voters will ignore the resulting inflation, say it’s awesome, and you won’t be able to convince them otherwise maybe until the really bad crash on the other side.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by MisterBastahrd on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:42AM (#42064970)
Even worse, he'll throw gasoline everywhere just like he did last time and throw the match right before he leaves the room. Fuel prices and the Afghanistan withdrawal were both done specifically with that in mind.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by vundercind on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:53AM (#42065151)
Afghanistan is one of those cases where I strongly agree with the idea (and with his pushing back on DoD crying about how it’d take a really long time to pull out the troops and equipment—I get it’s landlocked but it’s a small force, you control the air, and resistance on the ground is near-zero, so if that’s super-hard for you, guess you’re bad at a really basic part of your job and we should be very concerned) but absolutely hate the inept execution, like the dumb-shit bargain with the Taliban. Cracking down on Chinese cheating on free trade is another—yes, more of that, but be less shit about it please?
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by ericd on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:49AM (#42063134)
It will almost certainly accelerate inflation, but won’t it also give domestic manufacturing workers hurt by globalization a lot more demand for their work, and leverage to increase their wages? It seems like the main people hurt by this would be the upper middle class and above, the execs, designers, and managers who’ve directly and indirectly managed large international teams of laborers working at low rates, as they’ll get hit by the inflation, but see no additional demand/leverage to increase their wages. They’re the part of the bimodal wealth distribution that has until now done very well by globalization, and I think this election is largely a reaction by the other mode.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by xnx on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:32AM (#42063845)
> won’t it also give domestic manufacturing workers hurt by globalization a lot more demand for their work

Temporarily perhaps, the push for automation in manufacturing (and farm operations) will be very strong.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by no_wizard on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:02AM (#42063376)
It hurts everyone, the price shocks will be felt for years, and any gains that can be made won't matter.

Wage gains won't keep pace with any price increases either, Republican's have already outlined policies that are regressive to average Americans[0][1]

About the only thing tariffs will do is consolidate power at the top and allow the largest corporations to buy out smaller ones that can't cope as well.

We are remember, talking about broad spectrum tariffs here, which will hit any import, from food to solar panels.

[0]: https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/32a303df-1977...

[1]: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/10/30/trump-reduce...

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by ericd on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:09AM (#42063477)
That JEC doc doesn’t seem to mention tariffs?

Yes, prices will rise, the question is whether it will increase their leverage in the job market enough to boost their earnings enough to counteract the higher prices.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by no_wizard on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:20AM (#42063669)
my point with the JEC wasn't about tariffs its about Republican policies that show that "will it increase their leverage in the job market enough to boost their earnings enough to counteract the higher prices" is fantasy

The highest levels of leadership of the Republican party have shown time and again that they want a permanent poor underclass through their policies (both enacted and proposed) and actions.

There's no sense in speculation here, if they can put the boot on labors neck, they will 100% of the time

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by ericd on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:54AM (#42064199)
I mean, we were just talking about tariffs, not whatever else may be in their plans.

But point taken, you think that the net result will be worse for poor people. I don’t necessarily disagree, it just seems that this one bit might be somewhat positive for the poor.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by no_wizard on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:28PM (#42070517)
The net result will be worse for all people except those in power
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by anigbrowl on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:05AM (#42064372)
No. You can't just wave a magic wand and order manufacturing home. Capitalists exported a lot of skill and industrial infrastructure to overseas markets, which can't be rebuilt overnight.

There was talk about this in the first term too, and it ended up with a lot of money from tariffs being used to subsidize farmers because they found themselves doing so poorly that suicides spiked.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by ericd on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:21AM (#42064611)
Right, it seems likely to be disruptive in the short term, and there would be skill shortages and big holes in the domestic supply chain. I mean more abstractly/directionally. It does seem like it’d be best if it was phased in predictably over a longer period of time, but doesn’t seem like that’s the plan.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by ericd on Thursday November 07, 2024 @11:37AM (#42078193)
Elon at least seems to be against sudden implementation of tariffs, he wants them phased in in a predictable over time, he talks about exactly this near the end of his JRE interview: https://youtu.be/7qZl_5xHoBw?si=0XNnSP8psUtXLK2K&t=8426

They also talk about the problems of losing competitive pressure from protectionist systems.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by tayo42 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:53AM (#42064176)
I don't think the US is the only place where US companies sell things. What about when tariffs are placed on US items, demand will drop with US made things.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by ericd on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:57AM (#42064245)
It’s not, but our balance of trade is very deeply negative. We import a lot more than we export. Partly because our currency is kept artificially strong by reserve currency status, preventing our exports from becoming more competitive when we go deeply into debt.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by tayo42 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:54PM (#42072440)
we import some important things though right now. Like a lot of our food. I don't think we can turnover all of the inedible corn we grow for real food?

I can't imagine there will be iphone factories all of the sudden in the US.

Those kinds of items effect people day to day.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by ericd on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:36PM (#42073451)
Yeah, it'd probably be at least a bit messy.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by samatman on Thursday November 07, 2024 @01:00PM (#42079105)
What real food are you thinking of exactly?

I look in my refrigerator and I see a couple cheeses from Europe, butter from Ireland (and from the USA), a Belgian beer I still have around, and food from the US. We are, as a nation, completely self sufficient in food production, we turn a bunch of corn into ethanol (very stupid) and export enormous amounts of foodstuffs of all kinds.

There are very few nations, in fact, who could completely close their borders, in and out, and feed themselves. American could do this easily, furthermore, there would be widespread and worldwide starvation if we stopped exporting (no one wants to do this, just making a point).

This is such an odd claim to make.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by tayo42 on Thursday November 07, 2024 @02:45PM (#42080150)
I guess Google about the US being a net importer of food

And how much we get from Mexico

https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2021/november/u-s-fresh...

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by samatman on Thursday November 07, 2024 @09:04PM (#42083397)
Well yes, we're the richest country in the world, of course we import food, why wouldn't we?

But we can easily feed our entire population off our own agricultural production, and well.

Google leads me to this link.

https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistic...

This has taught me nothing new. We produce and export positively enormous amounts of food, we also buy a lot of it.

My point remains: that last part is completely optional because this country is food sufficient. If world trade were to shut off, and America could neither export nor import food, many millions of people would starve to death.

But none of them Americans.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by tayo42 on Thursday November 07, 2024 @11:11PM (#42084062)
The link explains we import food and do so at a growing rate becasue there is demand for food that can't be grow year round in the US.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by rstuart4133 on Thursday November 07, 2024 @08:24PM (#42083166)
I come from a country that tried the high tariff route (Australia).

> What about when tariffs are placed on US items, demand will drop with US made things.

Maybe that will happen, but over long term that isn't the dominant effect. The main effect is the tariff protected industries raise prices because the don't have to complete with international suppliers any more. They soon price themselves out of the international market. It doesn't take very long - a couple of years usually.

That's how it starts. It is usually tolerated because the jobs at the expense of higher local employment was the goal. Then it flows outward as industries that aren't tariff protected are forced to buy local stuff at more expensive prices than their overseas competitors. "Stuff" here includes labour, because these tariff protected industries can afford to pay their employees more. (That was one of the attractions of the tariff idea, right?) The solution is obvious - tariffs for those industries too. Your exports go through the floor.

Eventually it becomes obvious even to Joe Citizen in the street. Locally produced stuff can cost multiples of what the overseas producers can make it for. (Literally, multiples. People start to yearn for the time an electric drill could cost $20.) The quality goes down as well.

The time for change arrives. I still remember our treasurer calling Australia cowering behind tariff walls a "banana republic" [0]; NZ had the same moment without such theatrics. The tariff band aid was eventually ripped off in both countries.

The pain was immense. Protected industries go rapidly broke, unemployment sky rockets. It takes years for the new internationally competitively industries to develop. But here we are, 30 years later, the last 20 without a recession and now with a GDP bigger than Russia's.

Still if the tariff plan is implemented, the next few years will be very nice for USA citizens. I guess the even frog in the pot enjoys the warmer water for a while. Enjoy it while it lasts.

[0] https://theconversation.com/revisiting-the-banana-republic-a...

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by y7 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:14AM (#42061779)
I guess, from a Western-European perspective, the problem is that with the choice of Democrats and Republicans you get the choice between right-wing and ultra right-wing. Having right-wing politics that funnel money from the poor to the rich, or the tenants to the landlords, is in the interest of the financial backers of both parties. Messaging-wise, the Democrats have always been "more honest" (low bar, it's hard to be more dishonest/convoluted than Trump anyway), so maybe that's why Trump seems to come out ahead there.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by arethuza on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:26AM (#42061936)
Reminds me of the quote by Gore Vidal:

"There is only one party in the United States, the Property Party … and it has two right wings: Republican and Democrat."

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by wwweston on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:49AM (#42063128)
I'm not sure I understand the criticism. This is bad? People like property rights. Progressives like them. Conservatives like them. Economies like them.

Meanwhile there are substantial differences between the two wings, what services and programs they think government should provide, how problem solving should be approached.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by penjelly on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:28AM (#42061957)
normally I'd agree about Trump's honesty, but in the debate and subsequent Harris interviews I saw a lot more deflection, misdirection, lies/mistruthes and non-answers than I did from trump. Sure trump says some wild things which are often only 50% ish true. But kamala would openly call things lies that were verifiable fact, those are lies too, and she lied a lot.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by intended on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:47AM (#42062209)
I dont want to get into a flame war, 50% is a generous number, since many times he isn’t speaking full intelligible sentences. Trump gets a pass on absolutely outrageous things, which he creates by the second. I feel that he is so bad, and so incessant with his content creation., that he causes an integer overflow in the audience. At that point, he is once again assessed with an average rubric.

I feel that his success here suggests that this is a strategy that will succeed globally, and that many political candidates are going to be emulating his “style”.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by tartoran on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @12:25PM (#42065737)
Yes, the Pandora's box is about to open and show us how bad we've had it, by showing us how much worse could really be.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by intended on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @02:06PM (#42067556)
Hey, this is what works, we have to get rid of our emotions and feelings about it. Be productive, efficient and deliver. /s
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by philistine on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:20AM (#42062661)
I think you perceived that because you expected Trump to lead the election and her to follow in his wake. She deflected to the things she wanted to talk about to a usual degree, and did not lie more than usual for core-Democrat politicians, which is not a lot. They just don't address what they don't want to talk about.

Ultimately she lost, and probably should have even more aggressively emulated him by promising things that aren't even real. Like how do you circle the promise that the war in Ukraine will be over tomorrow. I'm not making it up, that was repeated ad nauseum on the campaign trail. I guess all that matters is winning.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by rdtsc on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:49AM (#42062240)
> I saw a lot more deflection, misdirection, lies/mistruthes and non-answers than I did from trump

Yup, it just came without the crass jokes and the mannerisms but I guess the confidence was pretty high that people would forgive her because she's just "not trump".

I think they totally bungled the messaging and stuck their head in the sand. With all the billions of campaign money, they spent most of it calling trump a fascist or orange idiot a bunch more times, hoping that's enough to bump voter numbers. There is a dose-response curve there and after some point it just doesn't yield linear results.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by thunky on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:48AM (#42062218)
All politicians lie. They're only ever called out by the "other side".
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by class3shock on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:13AM (#42062571)
You're touching on one of the struggles for many left leaning voters and why the democratic party struggles with enthusiasm and to win. To many on the left, the party markets itself as "the least bad option" and thus "the only choice". Anyone in sales would tell you that is not the best pitch.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by dfxm12 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:51AM (#42063166)
I get where you're coming and the Dems' greatest sin is probably pulling the rug under progressive candidates in primaries of some elections, but at some point you gotta look at the things Biden/Harris did for all Americans as president and consider if it passes the threshold from "least bad option" to, dare I say, "good, but obviously not perfect option". Things like increasing the threshold for overtime pay, an anti-redlining mortgage lending framework, pushing the HHS to reschedule cannabis to schedule III, actually showing up on a picket line, etc.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by class3shock on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:20AM (#42064596)
I agree with all of that but I'm not the voting block that should be seeing that and voting democrat but not. To those people it will never matter how many incremental gains the dems push through. They only see the big things not attempted or failed, that the party is once again running a uninspiring insider, that they are being told who they have to vote for because there is no other option, and that having done that last time not much in their day to day lives has improved.

I don't care about that but the people that do make or break the democratic party. Unfortunately the democrats seem incapable of learning that if you don't appeal to those people, they will lose.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by jghn on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:48AM (#42062224)
> You can't have everyone in your party saying "the economy is good, it's growing better than ever, look at all the jobs, etc." while literally no average person is seeing that.

Isn't that literally what happened in his first term? Remember "I built the greatest economy the world has ever seen"? These claims were backed fully and completely by the stock market and not the rank & file. And this is the same situation we find ourselves in now. All these years later we're still in a situation where "the economy" is going gangbusters, but the average person feels left out.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by class3shock on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:00AM (#42062392)
I would say absolutely yes, which is ironic to say the least. I think the fact that he didn't follow through on his promises got lost in the crazyness of the pandemic times but do remember, he did not get re-elected. Also americans don't really think that far back when it comes to presidential elections, they tend to be here and now things.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by notahacker on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:04AM (#42062449)
I think the bigger problem isn't that the Dems didn't try to take credit for growth, but that they didn't point out that actually things weren't that rosy in 2020 and basically conceded the entirely false argument that Trump's term made the economy better and Biden's made it worse.

Sure, Trump didn't cause the pandemic, but neither did Biden and the inflation isn't unrelated to Trump's fiscal policy being looser than it needed to be even before the pandemic either, as well as being fundamentally the Fed's job to solve[2]. It's difficult[1] for an incumbent to win by attacking the track record of the last government especially when much of it was factors outside their control, but not impossible, especially since Trump has presented wavering voters with plenty of other reasons not to vote for him. Trump is living proof that excuses work...

[1]Not impossible though: an unpopular British government won a majority in 2014 by constantly blaming slow post recession growth on the other party's borrowing five years earlier

[2]You can absolutely guarantee that if Trump was in power the US would have experienced at least as much inflation, and he'd have wasted no time in blaming the Fed

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by xnx on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:53AM (#42063216)
I agree, but also think the number of voters that have the attention to be influenced by such a nuanced argument is vanishingly small.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by notahacker on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:17AM (#42063611)
Tbh I imagined it less as nuance and more as attack ads which focused on reminding people that 2020 was a really shit year for people's incomes and that Trump didn't actually deliver on his promises, not even the wall.

Would have been more effective to remind people why they didn't vote for him than remind them of his behaviour afterwards which he's perfectly good at doing himself.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by jghn on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:24AM (#42062723)
> I think the bigger problem isn't that the Dems didn't try to take credit for growth, but that they didn't point out that actually things weren't that rosy in 2020 and basically conceded the entirely false argument that Trump's term made the economy better and Biden's made it worse.

This is more or less the direction I was heading w/ my post. I don't think it's a messaging issue per se. Rather it's control of the messaging. The economy in general has been on a steady path for a while, despite ups & downs: it's trending towards a bimodal distribution where certain parties are doing quite well and others are doing less well. But what I've seen the last several election cycles is the indicators that dominate what I see on TV, read online, etc swap depending on who is in power. So my expectation is that literally nothing will change yet we'll be hearing about how awesome the economy is for everyone in several months.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by dcuthbertson on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:02AM (#42062418)
> All these years later we're still in a situation where "the economy" is going gangbusters, but the average person feels left out.

It doesn't matter. Trump claimed he'd build the greatest economy again. He didn't provide any details on what he plans to do that will actually improve people's lives. He just let people jump to their own happy conclusions.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by phkahler on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:36AM (#42062904)
>> He didn't provide any details on what he plans to do that will actually improve people's lives.

He did provide high level detail. He said he'd use tariffs to exclude foreign made stuff, which will necessitate "made in America" and bring manufacturing back. He said he'd balance the budget, which (theoretically) has long-term effects. He said he'd deport illegals, which should reduce demand for housing and hence prices.

You can disagree with any of those things, but I don't think it's right to say he didn't offer anything specific.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by w0m on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:25AM (#42063734)
> I don't think it's right to say he didn't offer anything specific

I mean; he offered 'specifics' - they simply didn't make any sense on cursory examination. How to fight inflation? Tariffs! How to make already expensive goods cheaper? Tarriffs!

Hell, re: deporting illegals, he didn't even bother to do that his first term, Obama did it at a dramatically higher rate.

It's all a "I'll fix everything by doing nothing" smokescreen.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by stormfather on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @12:07PM (#42065433)
You're being disingenuous. The closest Republican talking point to reducing inflation was increasing energy production. That is a legitimately deflationary policy. What I think most people don't understand on the left is how far their credibility has fallen with the common person, and is because of attitudes like this. If you actually want to understand this election at all, you have to understand that people on the right feel constantly lied to by institutions and media figures, and disingenuous rebuttals like this don't help, they hurt.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by w0m on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:40PM (#42073131)
> that people on the right feel constantly lied to by institutions and media figures, and disingenuous rebuttals like this don't help, they hurt

Trumps literally running on Tariffs and fixing inflation. Claiming you can do both and it's disingenuous to combine them when discussing each candidates approach is honestly asinine. "Yes, he's pro-gun! but He's also in favor of confiscating all guns. But they're two different policies so it's a disingenuous rebuttal to link them."

> how far their credibility has fallen with the common person

This is True. Somehow there's an incredible double standard at play in the minds of waaaay too many.

In the middle of a national emergency, Trump toured the country spouting fabricated tales about Kamala wasting FEMAs budget on transgender surgery for migrants - which had a clear and direct adverse affect on the actual recovery efforts as multiple centers had to deal with bomb threats, armed insurgents, and a general hostile populace as they tried to help people. It was of course all fabricated idiocy that directly hurt the very people who needed help the most, but that's not "constantly lied to"?

"He just talks, you can't assume anything he states is true or that he'll follow through" is incredibly stupid because people really do believe him, and it's incredibly damaging to the core of our country. But somehow he gets a free pass, while calling out his exact words is "constantly lied to".

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by aiiaai on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:37PM (#42073456)
> fabricated tales about Kamala wasting FEMAs budget on transgender surgery for migrants

It's not fabricated, this is based on a question she was asked by the ACLU.

> ACLU: As President will you use your executive authority to ensure that transgender and nonbinary people who rely on the state for medical care - including those in prison and immigration detention - will have access to comprehensive treatment associated with gender transition, including all necessary surgical care? If yes, how will you do so?

> Harris: Yes. It is important that transgender individuals who rely on the state for care receive the treatment they need, which includes access to treatment associated with gender transition. That’s why, as Attorney General, I pushed the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation to provide gender transition surgery to state inmates. I support policies ensuring that federal prisoners and detainees are able to obtain medically necessary care for gender transition, including surgical care, while incarcerated or detained. Transition treatment is a medical necessity, and I will direct all federal agencies responsible for providing essential medical care to deliver transition treatment.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by w0m on Thursday November 07, 2024 @12:29AM (#42073695)
That's such a copout deflection; was it FEMA budget? Was it even national funds? The hypocrisy is astounding. Pick something that is copmpletely but TRANSGENDER or IMMIGRANT or SCARY DARK PERSON and make up a bunch of absolute tripe around it, then scream about how 'liberal media' is misleading you.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by tayo42 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:34AM (#42063875)
Illegals are not competing on buying homes. Working for cash is not going to allow you to purchase a home
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by ungreased0675 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @12:47PM (#42066159)
Maybe not buying houses, but they have to live somewhere, right? That has an effect on housing prices.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by FirmwareBurner on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:43AM (#42063014)
>He didn't provide any details on what he plans to do that will actually improve people's lives.

No, but he had a very simple and catchy message that even people with the lowest IQ can understand and remember: "Fuck illegal immigrants, fuck China, America first, USA no. 1".

Election messages need to appeal to the lowest common denominator of education and intellect. If you start boring people with facts and high brow speeches that only the well educated can understand, you lost from the start.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by dfxm12 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:49AM (#42064114)
Election messages need to appeal to the lowest common denominator of education

Republicans understand that the less educated a voter is, the more likely they are to vote R. It's not a coincidence that they are trying to gut the education system.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by FirmwareBurner on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:15PM (#42070328)
What did democrats do to improve the education system?
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by paulryanrogers on Thursday November 07, 2024 @08:58AM (#42076679)
Consistently fund it, integrated races, feed malnourished and vulnerable children, didn't demonize POC, removed magical thinking and religion from it, etc.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by FirmwareBurner on Friday November 08, 2024 @04:27AM (#42085540)
> integrated races

How?

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by paulryanrogers on Friday November 08, 2024 @07:03AM (#42086200)
By ending segregation
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by FirmwareBurner on Friday November 08, 2024 @09:11AM (#42086977)
I thought we were talking about recent history. Nobody cares about the good stuff you did 70 years ago if your monetary policies form 2 years ago means they can't afford food and housing.

Do you see the problem?

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by paulryanrogers on Friday November 08, 2024 @03:07PM (#42090054)
They've been doing that stuff long ago and have to fight to keep doing it. Private schools and vouchers today are draining the public school system, creating de defacto segregation all over again.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by astine on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:06AM (#42062474)
Yes, that's true, but the problem is that these past four years have been bad for everybody, so they remember the Trump years as being better than they actually were.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by jghn on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:26AM (#42062755)
> these past four years have been bad for everybody

They've been pretty good for some people.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by enraged_camel on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:47AM (#42063095)
Yeah, if you're a high earner living the urban/suburban life you've probably done really well. The problem is that rural turnout was off the charts last night, which what handed Trump the popular vote - something that has not happened with a Republican candidate since 2004.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by nsxwolf on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:34AM (#42063870)
Absolutely not. Inflation hit us very hard and we had to make real lifestyle changes to get back in the black.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by endemic on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @01:34PM (#42067022)
I'd love to know the details.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by bcrosby95 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:30PM (#42070549)
We got hit too. We adjusted mostly in our eating habits. Moved to zero eating out, more bulk buying, cheaper foods, etc. We're also much more discriminating on what activities we do for the kids.

I'm not gonna go all "woe is me" since we're doing fine, but as someone with a family of 5 the discretionary income basically went to zero the last 4 years.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by nsxwolf on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @07:32PM (#42071826)
Yes, I was going to come back to say basically all of this. We noticed that not only were we no longer saving money, but we weren't even living paycheck to paycheck and had to make all these sorts of changes and cuts to get off a very bad trajectory.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by jghn on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:59AM (#42063308)
I agree. But GP said that everybody was feeling pain. That's not true.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by purple_ferret on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:37AM (#42062932)
They've been great for US Stock holders, which basically comprises most of the Upper and Upper Middle Class.

In fact, so good, people think anything buy 10-20% yearly gains on assets is bad

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by throw_that_away on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:16AM (#42063602)
I lost my job a few months back, and I feel like the messaging from Harris/Biden was everything's great! Keep doing whatever is happening. Voted for who spoke to me.

Every company I join literally has an arm in Mexico, India, Pakistan, Colombia or Ukraine - and it always started feeling like at any minute those people would have my job. And they do. I want an administration that makes it so that those people don't have my job. And yes, I have always been willing to work for a lot less, but all the other Americans want more and more and more, so that it's expected for a programmer in the US to make 200k, so these companies decide to hire someone in Colombia for 80k. I'll take 100 and work a lot closer than that person in Colombia. But no companies here will listen to that. And I'll do it as someone with 20 years of experience.

But the only thing people on the left care about, as usual, are issues that actually don't matter. Yes I get it you want Gay rights and you want Abortion rights, but the reality is those things are not going away in the states you're already in. But on the other side, American people are being pushed into a terrible economic state.

Go ahead and not listen, HN doesn't. It's WAAAY to left.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by stcroixx on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:39AM (#42064934)
Whatever measures are used to portray the economy as great(it's not just the stock market) or unemployment is down do not match with the impact people feel in their own lives. Maybe they aren't lies, but they aren't accurate either. Massive layoffs in our industry and a glut of H1Bs still hanging around are a problem for an American job seeker in this industry and we'll look out for our interests despite what we're told.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by anthonypasq on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:26AM (#42063751)
unemployment was at historic lows, you just got unlucky. idk what to tell you man
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by ANewFormation on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:57AM (#42064248)
There was a massive downward revision in August, with most sectors hit hard, leaving the gains that remained increasingly dominated by government/education/healthcare jobs.

Telling people 'X' when their eyes/lived experiences tell them 'Y', and then frequently insulting them for not agreeing on top is certainly part of the reason for the popular vote going as it did.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by anthonypasq on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:11AM (#42064462)
this person basically just went: bad thing happened to me -> blame the president -> vote for the other person.

i have no interest in coddling people's feelings and telling them how right they are when they are operating with this level of analysis. Im not a politician so i dont have to deal with that, but im so tired of trying to explain how the world works to stupid people and getting shit for it because im not validating their delusions.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by ANewFormation on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:33AM (#42064801)
When presidents are quick to take credit for economic successes, surely it isn't unreasonable to hold them accountable for economic failures.

The disconnect between government data and the economic realities MANY people experienced (as evidenced by exit polling on the economy) only further salts the wounds for people not doing well.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by anthonypasq on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:58AM (#42065257)
again, youre assuming people's delusions about their personal finances are worth entertaining. theres absolutely no economic indicator you could point me to that validates people's feelings about the economy.

There were no economic failures during Joe Biden's presidency.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by Detrytus on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @06:04PM (#42070945)
Economic indicators are manufactured by government agencies to support the narrative the current administration wants to spin. Meanwhile, people living in the real world observe some actual state of economy, based on things such as "how hard it was to find a new job".
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by themaninthedark on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @12:44PM (#42066093)
Or maybe they said that "Bad thing happened to me", tired to recover, no recovery happening and it begins to feel like being lied to, blame the president.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by throw_that_away on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:27AM (#42063757)
Exactly what Harris was saying, hence the direction of my vote! Also, 50 job apps and no call backs, this is the WORST economy ever. In 2018, I would submit 3 and get 3 offers at the end of it.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by anthonypasq on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:50AM (#42064124)
your level of critical thinking is remarkable, i guess this is what we're competing against.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by islanderfun on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @01:36PM (#42067053)
I think the issue is that when people are desperate (lost job, can't pay for needs, etc) critical thinking can be limited to just short term survival mode. Even if it doesn't make sense big picture wise.

Democratic party needs to listen and at the very least fluff up a response that people in this situation feel heard. Even if there nothing they can really do. It's all about appeasing emotions.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by sophacles on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:55AM (#42065204)
Sounds like a skill issue. I never even saw a slowdown of recruiter spam. Maybe you should just try a little?

Also, maybe look into a little history while youre at it - the economy is not even close to the worst one ever, see: 1930s, 1970s, the turn of the millenium, and 2008-2012 for examples in living memory.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by Der_Einzige on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @12:48PM (#42066164)
It is a skill issue. The folks at the bottom today within the USA economically when unemployment is so low and social mobility is so high do so out of choice. I've traveled the rest of the world and seen what actual poverty looks like (the kind where you have no real hope even if you work hard or are smart). I've seen how much better the US handled every crisis/pandemic vs others. We have it better than anyone else BY FAR.

I'm tired of pretending it's not. Want to call me a coastal elite like it's a slur? I'll wear it with a badge of honor. We are better than you at economic planning and becoming prosperous - also with defending social freedoms (i.e. legalizing the mushrooms).

We lost the low information voters. Bad from the perspective of winning elections but good from the perspective of self selecting your friends and people you associate with. The democrats really are a social club.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by samatman on Thursday November 07, 2024 @12:43PM (#42078954)
> We lost

This is what matters.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by ballooney on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:24AM (#42064661)
Do you genuinely think that this is the worst economy ever?
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by throw_that_away on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @12:14PM (#42065530)
In my lifetime, yes.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by 8note on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @01:08PM (#42066541)
Does that include the 2000s tech crash? AI winters?
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by themaninthedark on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @12:40PM (#42066033)
It's at historic lows while layoffs are happening all over. I don't know what to say but it doesn't feel like good times to a bunch of people.

John Deere: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/john-deere-faces-b...

GM: https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/21/business/gm-layoffs-kansas/in...

Stellantis: https://www.npr.org/2024/10/11/nx-s1-5145932/stellantis-jeep...

https://intellizence.com/insights/layoff-downsizing/leading-...

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by tharmas on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:47AM (#42064086)
Under Biden, Mexico is the China replacement for manufacturing.

I have my doubts that Trump will change that.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by anuraj on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @01:22PM (#42066785)
China heavily invested in Mexico. They are building up Mexico's manufacturing capacity to cover American demand. Either way, China wins.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by tayo42 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:49AM (#42064110)
you think trump is going help programmers in the US at all? How? Trump merchandise isn't made in the US. His daughters brands are manufactured in Asia.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by 8note on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @01:04PM (#42066472)
My prediction is that the next four years won't see any improvement either, and the republicans will similarly be voted out again next election.

If "the economy" is going to be fixed, first Congress and the senate will actually have to start passing bills again, but that's probably not happening for another decade

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by ttyprintk on Thursday November 07, 2024 @10:13AM (#42077338)
The economy is about to become the only 2020-era talking point left. The only Congressional action will be a national abortion ban, which is simply and anticlimactically saying that abortions will be moved to Canada. And the popular vote in this election proves no widespread Democratic party vote tampering. So there will be a day, sometime in 2025, when a critical mass of Trump supporters need to ask, "Who is this Elon Musk guy who I didn't vote for?"
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by chrisBob on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:59AM (#42062369)
My theory is that legal sports betting makes the economy seem artificially worse for a lot of people. It has had a measurable impact on bankruptcy rates, and is causing a lot of self-inflicted financial stress. Trump's main platform is that your problems aren't your fault, and I think that resonates well with people struggling because they are throwing out their disposable income every month.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by jonhohle on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:22AM (#42063691)
I’ve never bet on sports but watched my grocery bill skyrocket. A few years ago I posted year-over-year grocery prices and in aggregate the bill was 50% over the course of 12-months. Since then we’ve seen insurance and utilities skyrocket, creature comforts like streaming services are all up. CPI may say one thing, but my checkbook feels much worse. Disposable income has all gone to sustain a reduced quality of life.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by lokar on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:29AM (#42063803)
What do you think will happen to grocery prices now?
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by jonhohle on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:55AM (#42065187)
It depends on how gov spending changes. If the federal government stops hemorrhaging debt hopefully they stay at current levels.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by nradov on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:06AM (#42064384)
Does that really impact a lot of people? The total size of the legal sports betting industry is $11B, which is only about 0.04% of US GDP.

https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/39563784/sports...

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by fullstop on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @01:39PM (#42067114)
I am not on Facebook, but my wife is. According to her there are countless posts from women complaining that their husbands / boyfriends are wasting their money on sports betting.

So while it's a small percentage of GDP, it is a much larger percentage of their budget.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by nradov on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @02:51PM (#42068275)
I am Facebook friends with a lot of women and haven't seen a single such complaint. That's obviously not a real population survey but if it was really a widespread problem then I think I would have seen it.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by fullstop on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @02:53PM (#42068313)
I'll have to ask her, but I'm pretty sure that this is in closed groups and not people posting about it on their wall.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by camdenreslink on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:33AM (#42062848)
When looking at some profiles of celebrating Trump supporters on Reddit, basically 100% had a large number of posts in sports betting topics, or Wall Street/day trading topics. An interesting demographic overlap there.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by Der_Einzige on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @12:53PM (#42066258)
Back in my day I remember when the same anti-porn conservatives would also tell you that gambling bans are good. I can't believe that conservatives gave up on moral purity.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by ConspiracyFact on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @07:40PM (#42071890)
This is peak “tone-deaf coastal elite”.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by throwaway13337 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:01AM (#42062403)
This is an interesting phenomanon. The median purchase power is increasing but people feel poor.

Things with limited supply are becoming more unaffordable because the rich are much richer than they were before. So if housing is limited and is seen as an investment vehicle, it becomes unaffordable.

The same goes for health care. There is a limit supply of medical care. Some people can afford much more than others which compounds the issue.

Americans (and most of the collective West) can afford all things that are not in limited supply - food, clothing, gadgets, transportation, etc. This is amazing in the context of history.

The weirdest thing is that both health care and housing do not need to be limited supply. It's completely artifical. We make bad governing decisions that force it to be so. Our problems are not economic but social/organizational ones.

Relatedly, I was quite surprised when recently I realized that the median (adjusted for PPP) disposable income in America was the highest in the OECD (except Luxembourg):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Median_income

This means that the average american really really is financially better off than anywhere else in the world. I'd say that their quality of life isn't - they die much earlier than the rest of OECD, for example. But they are definitely the richest. And not just the richest american but the average american.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by Workaccount2 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:48AM (#42063116)
There is a fundemental problem that cannot really be solved with housing:

People want a single family homes with a nice property in nice area. They want a short commute and all the convenience of modern life.

There is in fact a hard limit on how many single family homes you can have in a an area. You can build them somewhere else, but then you get long commutes or short commutes to low paying work.

HN, let me remind you, most people do not work in tech banging on a keyboard all day with mild collaboration. Most people still need to commute to their jobs at least once a week. The majority still need to go in everyday.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by zeroonetwothree on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:52AM (#42064170)
Families tend to want single family homes. But singles/couples are happy buying townhomes or condos, which we could build a lot more of on the existing land. And we should encourage older couples to downsize (eg CA makes this undesirable because of prop 13)
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by angmarsbane on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @07:31PM (#42071818)
More families would be open to townhomes and condos if they had 3-4 bedrooms.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by simoncion on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:20PM (#42072618)
Yeah.

If I ever raised a family [0], I would very, very strongly prefer them to live in a reasonably-sized condo or apartment in a big city, rather than in the suburbs or in the sticks. There's more to do, better and more diverse food, a far more diverse set of people (and ideologies) to meet, and the environmental impact of one's consumption is much, much smaller per-capita than living outside of the city. [1]

It's to city managers' great discredit that they don't prioritize making it reasonably possible for families to have a decent quality of living within the cities that they manage. (If they did this, one would expect the quality of living for every ordinary person in the city to inevitably become substantially better.)

[0] And I will not, because I would be an absolutely terrible parent.

[1] Or, that was the case prior to the collapse of shopping in many big cities. Now, I guess many folks get stuff shipped direct to them, just as if they were living in the middle of nowhere.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by eszed on Thursday November 07, 2024 @04:20AM (#42075062)
Same same. We bought a two-bedroom house in an inner-ring suburb when the kiddo arrived. We'd be happier (even renting) in a two-bedroom place in the City. Not possible. I vote the local YIMBY coalition's ticket - even though it's notionally (now) "against my economic interests" (I don't actually think it is) - and wish there was more I could do.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by doron on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:32AM (#42064797)
Add to that a systemic lack of investment in public transportation infrastructure and it makes said commutes completely reliant on private resources.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by light_hue_1 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:23AM (#42063707)
People are willing to live in condos just fine. But everything is unaffordable now. Every new condo building has crazy HOA fees with prices that are totally out of reach.

We're not building out or building up. So yeah. It's bad.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by simoncion on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:11PM (#42072554)
> Every new condo building has crazy HOA fees with prices that are totally out of reach.

At least here in San Francisco, even old condos have HOA fees that are within shouting distance of "market rate" rents... on top of the absolutely absurd purchase price. It's madness.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by themaninthedark on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @12:47PM (#42066163)
Factor in good schools and other wants well.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by Izikiel43 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:08PM (#42072130)
An SFH in a big city is a luxury, as you say, something has to give. You can't have cheap SFH in a nice neighborhood next to your job for everyone, there is reason why buildings exist
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by kelnos on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:55AM (#42063239)
> I was quite surprised when recently I realized that the median (adjusted for PPP) disposable income in America was the highest in the OECD

That doesn't really tell you all that much useful. Disposable income just deducts taxes from your gross income. What really matters is the cost of those other things we're talking about: food, housing, healthcare, childcare, etc. When you subtract those out as well, you get discretionary income, and I bet the US is not leading at all there.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by zeroonetwothree on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:56AM (#42064221)
It’s not really a straightforward comparison because those categories are discretionary to an extent. For example people in the US seem to eat out at restaurants far more than in other countries. That would certainly increase food spending but clearly it’s a choice people make to improve their life and doesn’t represent a defect in the economy.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by zeroonetwothree on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:51AM (#42064143)
Life expectancy in the US is below average but it’s certainly not “much lower than the rest of the OECD”

https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/d90b402d-en.pdf

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by no_wizard on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:21AM (#42062685)
Frankly, if wage gains kept pace with productivity gains it’d be a very different and vastly better economic story for the average American. The reality is the recent blip of wage gains didn't make up ground on the last 40 years of stagnation, and it shows signs of slowing in any case, and Americans are feeling that
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by bryanlarsen on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:26AM (#42062753)
Ironically wage gains have outpaced inflation in the last 4 years, but that's such a minor effect compared to the lost ground over the previous 40 years that it's not noticeable.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by stormfather on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @12:14PM (#42065527)
It depends on how you measure inflation. The most important expenses for a young person trying to start a family are health-care, housing, food, child care and college tuition. Inflation in these categories is wild. I don't care at all if a big screen TV has gotten cheaper.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by bryanlarsen on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @12:48PM (#42066180)
Given that big screen TV's are a negligible portion of the inflation basket and housing is by far the biggest component of the basket, I think the current basket is a fairly decent reflection.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by Jeff_Brown on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @04:59PM (#42070138)
Yes, but for the electorate to blame the current party for the last 40 years is irrational.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by surbas on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:30AM (#42062812)
The definition of “disposable income” used in this chart is gross income minus taxes.

I don’t think this corresponds with what most people think that means. i.e. gross income - (taxes + housing costs + food + health/childcare). I certainly didn’t.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by kelnos on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:53AM (#42063195)
That's the correct definition of "disposable income". The latter value is called "discretionary income", and a lot of people incorrectly say disposable when they really mean discretionary.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by jmpetroske on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:14AM (#42064498)
It’s always cases like this that make question if the dictionary is wrong, or if everyone speaking the language is wrong.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by vundercind on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:54AM (#42063234)
Yeah it’s hard to calculate a comparable figure on this when savings in one country is basically just temporarily holding money for the medical industry and getting to collect gains on it in the meantime, and in another, it’s actual savings.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by frmersdog on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:30AM (#42063809)
Much like, say, IQ, wealth shouldn't be compared across populations without massive amounts of contextual normalization. Individual wealth measures don't account for institutional safety nets, nor social/cultural affordances, nor geography, nor weather, nor history, nor-

Suffice it to say that trying to directly compare individual wealth across disparate populations is so disingenuous as to be tantamount to spreading falsehoods. People feel poor because they are poor; Americans simply cannot afford many of the things that other developed economies provide for their residents. We can make lots of small changes to help with this^ (i.e., we don't need a massive overhaul or revolution), but the people calling the shots have to actually admit that people are not doing well, and that the costs people face today are burdensome. They won't, because they're afraid of not being reelected (and then they lose anyway).

^Solve food deserts by opening bodega-like shops in both urban AND suburban neighborhoods.

^Replace surface parking with structures housing amenities that people can walk to.

^Increase mass public transit access by building rail and bus/bike lanes.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by Jeff_Brown on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @12:59PM (#42066398)
Whether one thinks things are bad or good is subjective and should not be relevant, although it does appear to matter electorally. A rational voting public would vote on a forward looking basis -- which candidate would deliver the biggest expected improvement.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by frmersdog on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @03:58PM (#42069277)
A rational voting public will not vote for someone who normalizes genocide. This is reasonable, because that which is normalized becomes probable for all. Looking at the numbers, it doesn't seem so much that America chose Trump as they refused to choose Harris; her popular vote total is in the middle of Obama's, and Trump's is roughly the same as last time. I recognize and agree that Trump is worse. As much as Harris wanted to make that what the election was about, as with Biden in 2020, that's simply not what it was. The election was about if Harris could do better than Biden, as an executive. She couldn't show that she would, so the people who came out for Biden did not come out for her.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by oporo on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:17AM (#42062626)
It takes $600k now to have the buying power of $200k in the 80s

The economy is 100% intentionally managed to protect the prior generations story mode way of thinking

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by gwurk on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:14AM (#42062591)
That would make it a left/right thing. As a European: there is no left in america, there is a liberal right and a conservative right.

The economy is good in america, but that just means that the amount of "resources" in the country is increasing, but, if "average joe" benefits from that or not is a question of how those resources are distributed.

Left/Right is about economy.

Being on the right means that you find it more important that the total pool of resources is increasing.

Being on the left means that you care more about how the resources are distributed.

What happened here is IMHO that the conservatives did the populist thing, they claimed that regular people would get more resources if they won, while still claiming that they would distribute less resources away from wealthy people.

They are not wrong in saying that the economy is good, it is just that since there is no left in american politics, it seems like some people have forgotten the other perspective, since redistribution of wealth have been almost an insult in america for so long. Yet, last time he was president, trump managed to send everyone a check, signed by himself, but paid for by taxes, without being called an evil communist.

I listened to a radia program where poor americans where interviewed, and that was the thing that they remembered about trump, he sent them a check.

So, in conclusion, there is a large group of poor americans, that associate the guy that wants to remove taxes for rich people with what I (according to the above definition) consider to be left wing politics.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by ywvcbk on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:18AM (#42062641)
> there is no left in america

There is, though? It’s just no represented at all because of FTPT there is based no constituency where it can get 50%. Usually not even in Democrat primaries.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by lokar on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:24AM (#42063724)
Sanders got 25% of the primary vote in 2020 despite being a lost cause for most of the voting.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by gwurk on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:37AM (#42062928)
Yes, that was what I meant.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by ywvcbk on Friday November 08, 2024 @11:13AM (#42087946)
That was not what I meant, though.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by zeroonetwothree on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:58AM (#42064273)
Europe seems to be pretty good at being on the right lately. Even compared to America. I think the two party system just creates more centrist government, which is perhaps a strong argument for it.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by jimbob45 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:58AM (#42064271)
As a European: there is no left in america, there is a liberal right and a conservative right

This gets parroted too often. America objectively provides more abortion access than Europe. Speech here is undoubtedly more expansive than in Europe. Sure, unions may have more power in Europe, but not so much more that I'd be saying "there is no left in America".

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by eszed on Thursday November 07, 2024 @06:44AM (#42075817)
I think GP means economic left / right.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by tmnvix on Saturday November 09, 2024 @03:03PM (#42096540)
It's astounding how often the left/right dichotomy gets discussed without any acknowledgement that there are many axes. For the purposes of this discussion I assumed the collectivist/individualist axis (in my opinion usually the most pertinent one).
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by burntalmonds on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:23AM (#42062702)
I don't buy it. There's a reality distortion field at work here. If Trump had been in office he would he would have been touting the economy as the greatest in history. And 'average people' would have 'seen that' despite not 'seeing it'.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by light_hue_1 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:55AM (#42063252)
I don't vote for Trump. I don't know anyone aside from some crazy family members who like him. I'm in an extreme blue state that was called when only a few percent of the vote was in. I don't even know anyone who listens to Trump's speeches or sees this ads.

Every single person I know feels this economy is terrible. Of every age. From new graduates, to senior people. Even the most extreme Obama or Bernie people feel like things are going very badly.

Everyone on campus was consistently outraged when Biden would gloat about his economy.

It's not Trump. I have no idea what his message even is.

This is an own goal. Democrats believed the total bullshit that economists spew about how good things are. When people actually feel how terrible they are.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by lokar on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:26AM (#42063748)
And trump voters, not understanding inflation, think he will bring down prices.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by usaar333 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:26AM (#42063749)
I'm in the Bay - am I the only person that thinks the economy is going great?

My wages are up since Biden started. My rent, my biggest expense, has held the same. NW up a lot from stock market gains.

There seems to be a lot of inflation with food ,restaurants and domestic work, but isn't lower wage people getting higher wages a good thing?

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by uxp100 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:56AM (#42064228)
Yes, it’s been good for the rich. Stock market gains do nothing for most people.

I’m skeptical about the vibes based methods of evaluating the economy, I think the economy really is better for the lowest income workers, but forget stock market gains. Also, rents remaining flat might be a Bay Area specific phenomena. Or even SF specific? Don’t know where you live.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by anonymousab on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:34AM (#42063867)
> but isn't lower wage people getting higher wages a good thing

Their wages did not rise anywhere near commensurate with the increased costs of those goods and services - the same goods and services that those people would be buying

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by usaar333 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:59AM (#42064285)
I don't think that can be true in the Bay. They would have an even higher percent of expenditure to rent, which is flat.

America wide looks at worse flat: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q (ignoring covid years which distort this)

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by frmersdog on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:06AM (#42064382)
What you're doing now is what people are so angry about. Stop, "But the numbers..."ing, humor people's feelings for a moment, and figure out what would need to be done to lift those spirits. Gaslighting is not a good tack.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by usaar333 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:29AM (#42064747)
I agree that maybe people need their feelings humored, but how is this gaslighting? I'm not denying that there's food inflation or restaurant inflation - I pointed out that it's a narrow way to look at even your own economic position.

Food might be up 30% in biden's term for all I know. And maybe wages are only up 20%. But as long as rent is 0% and asset growth kept track with inflation (it's blown past it), you are still ahead.

I suspect this is just standard human loss aversion at work. I feel this even from my own wife who looks at our economic position worse than me even though it is the same numbers. What's worsened becomes more important than what's improved, even if rationally, it nets out even.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by frmersdog on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @12:08PM (#42065455)
>But as long as rent is 0%

My rent was up 30% and it was my largest expense. DoJ has been dragging its heels on punishing the companies that were a part of this gouging-via-algorithmic-price-fixing-and-warehousing, and now that Trump is going to be in office, those lawsuits are likely dead in the water. Very much a "Thanks for nothing, Joe," situation.

In gaslighting, the perpetrator insists on denying the victim's perception of reality, while actually controlling the facet of reality that he denies is altered. In this case, Democrats control the means to alter the economy via leaning on Congress, the Treasury, and the Fed. They manufactured an environment where earners would lose out to the concerns of asset holders (the "soft-landing," rather than a swift and severe FFR rate hike and tightening of Treasury holdings that would have squelched inflation), but insist on telling earners that everything is okay, because the metrics that matter to asset holders are doing well. In carrying water for this line of argument, you're participating in their gaslighting. People aren't doing well, full stop.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by usaar333 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @12:21PM (#42065662)
Dems don't control the fed.

A fast rate hike might have caused massive unemployment which would be much worse.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by frmersdog on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @12:49PM (#42066189)
They can lean on the Fed, and they did.

A fast hike would have caused pain, but the money printing that we did anyway would have helped mitigate that. Instead, it just went to propping up asset prices. Bank Bailout 2.0; we didn't learn our lesson, and the incumbent party was yet again ousted.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by usaar333 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @02:20PM (#42067781)
America's economy probably did better than anywhere else in the rich world. I don't see how we can view this as a fail
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by frmersdog on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @03:46PM (#42069090)
You're doing it again.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by vundercind on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:31AM (#42063821)
Housing’s still shooting up really fast and I guess used cars are just always gonna be expensive now.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by usaar333 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:56AM (#42064231)
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by 0xBDB on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:30AM (#42064751)
I'm in Texas, in Big Tech. I didn't vote Trump. But I understand.

I'd like to get out of here but can't move because of mortgage rates, among other reasons. I'd like to change jobs but tech layoffs have flooded the job market. It's an anxious time. My 401k is doing great though.

I don't blame Biden for all this. There was absolutely no choice but to pour enough stimulus into the economy to cause massive inflation in order to prevent a revolution during COVID. But if I'm feeling the hangover I'm sure the real working class is staggering.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by themaninthedark on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @12:56PM (#42066327)
There was someone upthread that was talking about how unemployment is lowest ever while we have all these layoffs going on. It's kinda surreal.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by 0xBDB on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @01:13PM (#42066622)
I believe the unemployment statistics, but I'm not sure what industry is doing all the hiring. I doubt it pays as well as the industries that are shedding people right and left.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by eric-hu on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:14PM (#42072179)
I’m also in tech. I’ve been looking for work for the last several months. Took some time off after my work contract ended last year.

I likely don’t count towards unemployment statistics. I don’t qualify for unemployment since I was a contractor before.

In my current job search, I’ve sent out more applications and had more interviews than the rest of my career. Granted, I found jobs more through connections than cold applying in the past. I’ve been tapping connections in this search too, though. It’s rough out there. I’ve contemplated taking an exit from tech and picking up a trade.

It sure feels surreal to me when I see reports of a strong economy.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by vundercind on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:26AM (#42063744)
Becoming the refuge-party for fleeing Republican neoliberals (joining the existing Democratic ones) is really gonna cripple the party when the party that popularized (among the political set—voters never liked it) that damn world-view is abandoning it.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by l33t7332273 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:48AM (#42063108)
> while literally no average person is seeing that

I mean, frankly as a Gen Z man I don’t understand this at all. I’m doing a lot better than I was 4 years ago. Finished school, got a good job, etc.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by lokar on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:28AM (#42063786)
I was about to retire early, with the risk to the ACA I’m not sure.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by wbl on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:51AM (#42063158)
Pay went up a ton too for low income people.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by no_wizard on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:43AM (#42064006)
But still haven’t matched productivity gains since the 1970s[0] Everyone likes to point this out like it somehow made up for all the wage stagnation of the last 40 years and it most definitely did not.

Not to mention these wage gains are slowing fast.

[0]: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/19/heres-how-labor-dynamism-aff....

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by jandrese on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:28AM (#42063785)
I agree "It's the economy stupid".

Where the Democrats went wrong is they looked at the economic figures for stuff like corporate profit margins and the stock market and said "look how good the economy is!" when those profit margins are high because they've jacked prices and regular consumers are feeling the squeeze. Unfortunately there's little a President can do about that. Corporate consolidation was largely complete before they even took office and monopolistic behavior is to be expected. The pandemic supply chain disruptions gave companies cover to increase their margins and that's what they did.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by pants2 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @12:25PM (#42065745)
Theodore Roosevelt was well known for monopoly-busting. It is something the president can influence and the U.S. has a dozen major monopolies that should have been busted long ago.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by dfxm12 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:34AM (#42063873)
"the economy is good, it's growing better than ever, look at all the jobs, etc." while literally no average person is seeing that.

I think I'm an average person. Car prices came down and I was finally able to buy a sedan. Unemployment seems low. Eggs are expensive, sure, but on the other hand, my brand of yogurt always seems to be on sale and oatmeal prices are flat, so it's kind of a wash there. The economy seems pretty fine to me.

Certainly, there have been no threats to shut down the government (like in '18-'19), which did do a number on my retirement plan at the time...

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by miltonlost on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:50AM (#42064136)
And that inflation was caused largely by pre-Biden Trump policies of giving tax-breaks to billionaires and allowing blatant corporate greed. Inflation is not a quick phenomenon. It has lags. It has stickiness. People don't know this because they don't take any economics.

And, more importantly, today's inflation is by large firms exerting their market control and monopolistic tendencies. How many grocery companies are there and in their region? Kroger is trying to buy out Albertsons to completely dominate the midwest, to lower quality and increase prices like all monopolists. What needs to be done is anti-trust enforcement which Biden has attempted. But none of this is known by 90% of the country and 0% of Trump voters.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by endemic on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @03:38PM (#42068974)
Yeah, Kroger's behavior is infuriating. I've stopped shopping there; fortunately I have choices.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by Jeff_Brown on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:30AM (#42064759)
You left out wages.