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Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by standardUser on Monday September 20, 2021 @11:19AM (#28594750)
Some very clever and influential people better start finding and implementing real solutions to housing prices right now. If they don't, expect overwhelming support from Millennials for massive expansions to public housing and rent control, if not even more draconian measures.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by topspin on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:15PM (#28597600)
"better start finding and implementing real solutions to housing prices right now"

They can't. Providing supply will suffer the wrath of BANANA/CAVE/NIMBY anywhere you dream of living. Constraining demand will either get you voted out of office or devastate your political network or both, depending on which policy you attempt. You're competing with a whole planet full of people that want to live here and have more means than you.

Seek property where demand is lower and development isn't effectively outlawed. Forget any livable cities or high population states. For 99% of you that means living far away from your preferred locale among people you probably loath. If that's not acceptable then keep renting or live in a van.

The good news is many of you can work remote. That is an affordance you can leverage to great benefit.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by Doches on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:37PM (#28597868)
> For 99% of you that means living far away from your preferred locale among people you probably loath.

Parent comment is vitriolic but not actually wrong. Myself, I take great comfort in the idea of huge swaths of liberal, well-educated millennials and xennials migrating out of coastal cities and into small towns across the South and Midwest. Can you work remotely? Want to own your own home on a multi-acre lot for $100k, and live in a place with sunshine and warm weather nine months out of the year?

Sure, you'll end up living in the most conservative parts of deeply red states -- but try it. Live among people you disagree with -- we're all still Americans, it'll be OK -- and if enough of your friends and fellow Ivy alumns make the jump you'd be surprised how easily you could turn Texas or Georgia nicely purple.

We've got to end the big sort, at any cost. And the hilarious difference in cost of living is probably our last, best hope.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by wildrhythms on Monday September 20, 2021 @08:34PM (#28600757)
I grew up in West Virginia. I'm not going back to 'the south'; people there would slash someone's tires if they found out they're gay. In contradiction to the history of the state, confederate flags fly over every half dozen trailer parks on the 30 mile one-way trip to Walmart (the only supermarket). Multiple bomb and shooter threats every semester at a school with 900 students. My high school graduating class had 1 non-white student to give you an idea of the cultural diversity your child might be exposed to. The jobs are leaving and not coming back. I personally know someone who died of prescription opioid abuse. Would you want to raise a family there?

(By the way, the county where I grew up is considered 'progressive' due to its proximity to the NOVA area)

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by jdavis703 on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:44PM (#28598762)
> Live among people you disagree with -- we're all still Americans, it'll be OK

I grew up in the American south, and migrated to California as an adult. As a Black person I can say this doesn’t work as well in practice. It’s better than the old days (when my mom was growing up segregation was still legal and the military warned her parents to be back on base before sunset.) But I’d much rather live in a welcoming area.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by Doches on Monday September 20, 2021 @05:03PM (#28598974)
That is...a very fair qualification. I grew up white in the South, where my mom used to tell me stories about school integration. Knowing that my otherwise-welcoming neighbors/family/peers might randomly turn out to be racist assholes when confronted by someone of slightly different skin tone was and remains my least favorite thing about the place, by a margin that's wider than Texas.

There's "be the change you want to see", and then there's "move to a place where you're likely to murdered in the street for pointless, intractable reasons." I can't say I blame you for getting the hell out; I just hope that in our lifetime you feel comfortable going back to where you grew up.

The weather's great (except for the hurricanes) and the barbecue is amazing (except in the Carolinas). Maybe one day you can get back here and we can all work together on fixing whatever the hell is wrong with (some of) the people.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by jasonladuke0311 on Monday September 20, 2021 @07:24PM (#28600310)
> the barbecue is amazing (except in the Carolinas)

how dare you

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by taurath on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:09PM (#28598315)
I think there’s plenty of real reasons people don’t do this economically, but don’t downplay the social parts of it - we have very Balkanized communities in the US. Ask a minority what it’s like going on a road trip sometime - I guarantee there’s many places where they won’t want to stop.

Living in a place with no amenities, an extremely regressive/borderline extreme social climate and a lack of economic opportunity for people who don’t have remote tech jobs and it gets depressing really fast. Also when you try to buy healthy food from a dollar general.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by rayiner on Monday September 20, 2021 @07:06PM (#28600167)
> Ask a minority what it’s like going on a road trip sometime - I guarantee there’s many places where they won’t want to stop.

Certified brown person here. The only thing I think about in terms of deciding where to stop is how far I can get before needing gas, and what the odds of finding decent food are. I've travelled in rural areas all over the country: midwest (my wife grew up in rural iowa), west coast (wife's family is from the rural oregon coast), and south (worked a summer in southern virginia, my best friend lived in south georgia for a decade). I just got back from a road trip through rural Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming with my white wife, mixed kids, and Latina au pair. In all this time nobody has even looked at me sideways.

Hell, the precinct where I live went for Trump 58-34 in 2016 (the year I moved here). The precinct a few minutes away where my parents live was 57-32. Most of the ones around us were 60-30. Again, no problems.

I have to agree with the sibling comment. I have no idea how these folks would perform on an IAT (and I don't care because they're bad science: https://qz.com/1144504/the-world-is-relying-on-a-flawed-psyc...). Southerners are nice to visitors and keep their thoughts to themselves for the most part. I'd rather deal with that than west coast frigidity or NYC aggressiveness.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by taurath on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @02:14AM (#28602444)
Thanks for sharing your perspective, its nice to get another view.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by bongoman37 on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @03:27AM (#28602798)
This is immaterial. People can be very welcoming to tourists and hostile to the very same people as immigrants. As a brown person who drove extensively through the US both North and South you would mostly see very welcoming people, the same places you would hear horror stories from people like me who actually lived there.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by rayiner on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @10:50AM (#28605596)
The above comment was in reference to a road trip.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by twofornone on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:49PM (#28598821)
>I guarantee there’s many places where they won’t want to stop.

As someone who recently made the jump to a rural area, these problems are almost entirely imaginary. The notion of backwards, ignorant, racist rednecks occupying all the rural lands is nothing but a bigoted stereotype.

Southern hospitality is real; and while rural peoples will be more likely to notice and acknowledge cultural differences, they generally are open minded and just as respectful of nonwhite neighbors as white ones. It's the city folk who don't understand the roles that politeness and respect play in southern living, necessary for the unbelievably high trust society that only really exists outside of cities.

The truth is that urbanites have been hypersensitized to so called racism, and completely mislead as to what rural/conservative culture is actually like. But I don't mind a bit, that means more cheap land for me.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by wildrhythms on Monday September 20, 2021 @08:53PM (#28600887)
This contradicts with my experience growing up in WV. The last time I went back there (5 years ago) I still saw the same confederate flags and n-words being thrown around casually. The reality is that 'the south', like anywhere, has pockets of diversity and acceptance; but your stereotype of universal 'southern hospitality' is not in line with my experience at all.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by rayiner on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @10:57AM (#28605672)
Appalachia is very different than the rest of the south, much less rural areas in other parts of the country. It was populated by Scots-Irish herders, versus say German farmers in the rural midwest.

Appalachian culture is extremely insular, even with respect to other white people. I once had a conversation with a (white) guy who had married into a family in Appalachian Kentucky. Folks in town regarded him as an outsider even after a decade of living there.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by taurath on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @02:09AM (#28602420)
I'm happy to hear that's your experience. My experience comes from being raised in such a place (not the south, just rural conservative), and fleeing to the nearest metro region as soon as I was able while growing up. That was a while ago though, and this was over LGBT things - a bit less about abject discrimination and more that it was impossible to even think about finding a date, and a fear of being found out with people regaling me of stories of houses of known queers being firebombed in recent years. I don't really speak about the stereotypes of the ignorant rednecks - the most virulent haters were the orderly christian pastors and the true believers who opened up multiple conversion camps in my area. There were 2 black students in my high school of 1500 kids, and both of them got pulled over literally dozens of times in just a few short years, and it wasn't for driving fast.

Culture has changed somewhat since then. I don't presume to speak for anyone's experience but my own, and I go off of the stories that my friends have told me for other things.

That said, Trump flags fly everywhere, and BLM flags get torn down/burned/vandalized. I don't think its really fair to say that its all politeness and mutual respect - in my experience that is how it is until you accidently fall into one of the cultural battlegrounds, and then its more conform or die. Lastly..

> The truth is that urbanites have been hypersensitized to so called racism

I think this can be true while the rest can also be true.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by twofornone on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @11:05AM (#28605754)
Well, to be fair, my experience is limited to a couple locales and only an hour or so away from major cities. I might have lucked out because I made a solid first impression on the community and don't have to worry too much about having the wrong opinions.

I suppose you could say that ruralites are more tolerant of intolerance in general, even when they individually may be welcoming. No argument about the flags around here...but I get the impression that, at least where I've settled, even if you're a little different, if you stick to your property and don't make waves nobody is likely to mess with you...and to be honest I kind of appreciate that sort of live and let live attitude, even if it requires some degree of conformity.

As far as I can tell, a somewhat rigid common culture is sort of the price of high trust living, where you can leave your doors unlocked and your keys on the porch. That doesn't justify violence against minorities/lgbt of course but... there's always the city for that I suppose. It's definitely a very different non-pc attitude around here. I certainly understand why a guy like Trump is so popular in these parts.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by GaryTang on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @02:21AM (#28602474)
As a brown minority who travels regularly all throughout the US, I believe your statement only rings true for minorities with strong politically left-leaning identities. The only reason that persuades me against stopping in any location is the price of gas is too high or there’s better food options in the next town. Additionally, I find the contrary to be more true — people in major cities generally make me much more nervous.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by rayiner on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @11:09AM (#28605793)
That's an interesting point and I wonder what's the cause. It's possible that minorities who had bad experiences growing up in rural areas moved to urban areas and developed left-leaning political identities.

I think there's also an element of cultural mismatch. Trevor Noah has a great passage in his autobiography about how he could cross the intense inter-tribal antipathies in South Africa by speaking another tribe's language: https://www.josephineelia.com/power-of-language. Rural places in America are like places everywhere else in the world--you have to "speak the language" of the people in the place where you are. If you go to rural France and conspicuously don't speak French, you'll face hostility. Obviously in America we speak English everywhere, but if your mannerisms and attitudes give you away as an outsider, you might not get the same warm reaction as someone who knows the cultural cues.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by rjbwork on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:51PM (#28598074)
I was ready to buy an estate in the Georgia mountains earlier this year - then I saw the internet connection options. Then I looked up how much it would cost me to get a decent wired connection out there.

Totally unviable for tech workers to live in most of the solid red areas of the country strictly due internet capabilities, or lack thereof.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by HeyLaughingBoy on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:36PM (#28598669)
Then keep looking. I'm a liberal, minority techie living on a farm: one of my base requirements for moving here 15 years ago was at least a minimal amount of wired broadband.

This summer the phone company has been pulling fiber all over the place. I was told that it's not going to be put in use until next year, but at least they're planning ahead.

Especially after the last year and a half of distance learning and working from home, there is a big push all over the place to get faster internet connections because the people already living out here are demanding it.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by dogman144 on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @12:01AM (#28601942)
Correct. There is fiber all over non-Asheville Appalachia right now. It’s reflecting in home prices too.

I’m looking at this move myself and the final decision point is state taxes (TN, WA, FL) or fiber/cheap homes (largely Western NC and GA), both paired with some cool nature.

All ears on places with $200k and below homes and fiber, quite candidly.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by JoeAltmaier on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:40PM (#28598715)
Got mine a month ago! In rural Iowa.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by kyleblarson on Monday September 20, 2021 @05:37PM (#28599327)
Extrapolating from 'rural mountainous Georgia' to all red states, including Texas and Florida is a bit of a stretch. I live in a remote mountain town in North Central Washington and there are dozens, if not hundreds, of remote tech workers. I have good internet through a local ISP and starlink is now prevalent in our area as well.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by rjbwork on Monday September 20, 2021 @05:47PM (#28599425)
Fair enough. I was looking in the triangle between Asheville, Nashville, and Atlanta. The few homes i was like "I will buy this now if i can get good internets" did not play out for me. I'm looking for an excess of land though, to indulge my many hobbies, so that is certainly constraining my options. It's okay though, I'm in no rush. Once Starlink is rolled out en masse I'm sure the equation will drastically change for me.

Also, FWIW, I meant more rural areas than just "red states". Even in solidly republican states there is a fairly prominent urban/rural divide.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by dogman144 on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @12:02AM (#28601946)
There’s fiber all over that area now because of Morris Broadband
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by ladyattis on Wednesday September 22, 2021 @09:23AM (#28616015)
I think it's already a foregone conclusion at this point with respect to the migration. Places like Boise Idaho have already been smacked with the SV stick and their housing market has been a horror show ever sense. The problem won't be the personal politics of the migrants but rather the effects that come from them eating up more resources which the governments in those red states haven't accounted for, especially housing and schools. There's already a strong anti-migrant (or rather anti-Californian migrant) sentiment in places like Colorado and Idaho last time I read up on it. I expect this to get worse and probably cause some strange events (not like personal violence but more political upsets in the coming decades).
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by polskibus on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:22PM (#28598486)
Hey, you can leave US you know. Europe will probably gladly have you.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by ChuckNorris89 on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:35PM (#28598647)
Please don't. The housing market is fucked in EU urban areas now too. Without an inheritance you can't afford to buy anything decent around a developed city with jobs even on a tech salary.

As selfish as this may sound, the last thing we need is more foreign competition on the housing market with bigger pockets.

It would be fair that if people from the US want to buy property here with their foreign megabucks, we should also get unrestricted visa-free access to the US labor market. Tit for tat. Otherwise it's just unfair to Europeans to be outspent out of their own housing market.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by silisili on Monday September 20, 2021 @05:54PM (#28599510)
You've basically described the sentiment and current situation with the US midwest and south.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by quantumBerry on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:42PM (#28598739)
Yes, because nothing would ruin Albania or Georgia more than a few tech workers siphoning profits from US into their local economies.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by ChuckNorris89 on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:48PM (#28598808)
Of course it wouldn't ruin the countries themselves, the countries would profit somewhat, but it would however hurt the middle class since now they have more competition on the housing market that's much wealthier so you're increasing inequality.

Just because the country is profiting from your megabucks, doesn't mean the average Joe is.

Look at Austria. The most touristic areas are profiting a lot from all that foreign tourist money, but a lot of the locals can't afford to live there anymore as all that tourist money is only going into a few pockets. Those who don't already own something or have an inheritance have been royaly fucked by that tourist money. It increases inequality between the haves and the have-nots.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by quantumBerry on Monday September 20, 2021 @05:04PM (#28598978)
> it would however hurt the middle class since

If the middle class are the ones buying the properties, then they're the ones selling them. Therefore it actually injects money into the middle class, foreign capital that never existed in that country.

>he most touristic areas are profiting a lot from all that foreign tourist money, but a lot of the locals can't afford to live there anymore as all that tourist money

Those who move to a country to work and live there on anything but a very short term basis on not generally considered tourists. Most of the money flowing into the rich is a function of capitalism, not just tourism. You can examine virtually any industry and make the same statement. Yet, some fraction of money is usually better than nothing for the middle class people benefitting.

The US has your Austrian analogue, it is called Hawaii. In Hawaii most money is made from tourism. The common person there is mostly employed in tourism. Housing prices are high, because lots of people want to live there. The result when it was mostly closed off for coronavirus was that although demand for housing decreased, unemployment skyrocketed without tourism, making the middle class worse off.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by ChuckNorris89 on Monday September 20, 2021 @05:16PM (#28599112)
>If the middle class are the ones buying the properties, then they're the ones selling them.

Sorry but since you make no distinction between someone owning and selling a house ($500k asset in Austria) and someone who doesn't own a house and call them both middles class is just plain wrong.

The property owner middle classer is significantly better off than than the other and would benefit even more from your intention of buying while the other middle classer is worse off without a property to his name and will suffer more from being in competition with you.

Sure, one guy profits, but you can't possibly tell me with a straight face someone else doesn't get screwed from this wealth driven game of music chairs which is the property market right now.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by quantumBerry on Monday September 20, 2021 @05:19PM (#28599142)
You just said the middle class was the competition for these houses. If the middle class are the ones who own these houses it follows they are the ones selling them. You seem upset you were caught up in your fallacious logic and fail to understand it's the middle class making the money off these sales.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by ChuckNorris89 on Monday September 20, 2021 @05:28PM (#28599231)
I think you misunderstood my comment, but whatever. Still, to follow up on your latest example, the classes below those who own the properties you want to buy get screwed since you're still increasing inequality between the asset owners and the non-asset owners by increasing housing demand. Simple.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by quantumBerry on Monday September 20, 2021 @05:38PM (#28599331)
I don't follow. The total wealth inside country starts out here:

value of house + value of rest of economy.

Now someone foreign comes into the country to live there and work in tech from abroad. They buy a house. Now the wealth inside the country looks like this:

value of house + foreign money paid for house + value of rest of country.

You can see that the wealth inside the country has increased. If it is the middle class owning those houses, then the wealth of middle class has changed by the difference in value between the value of the house and what it was sold for. The middle class then further benefits from whatever money the foreign worker spends in the country, which is a net gain for the middle class, plus the injection into the economy of the foreign money paid for the house. The only way the middle class end up worse off here is if the foreigner doesn't live and work here, and is just a foreign landlord (siphoning money out of the country) -- which is something I think we can both agree is detrimental.

I will say here in the US people have a lot of problems with foreign landlords and people who buy property here and don't live here. But only the most backwards rednecks have serious issue with an honest foreigner who buys a normal middle class house to live their lives, especially if they are injecting foreign capital into our economy.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by jeffbee on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:42PM (#28598743)
I know in Berlin they consider themselves to be having a housing crisis but last I checked apartments in desirable districts of Berlin were like a quarter of Bay Area housing prices, for example < €1000/mo for a 2 bedroom / 50 m^2 apartment.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by ChuckNorris89 on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:45PM (#28598779)
When was that? Prices are higher now for something decent. Also I was taking about buying property not renting.

>districts of Berlin were like a quarter of Bay Area housing

So what? Nothing touches Bay Area prices, even in the US. And then there's the income difference as well.

Try comparing to something more similar like Texas. Last I checked average dev wages in Austin are easily 2x more than average dev wages in Berlin while buying a house there costs the same. So who's buying power is stronger then?

Buying something decent in Germany now, in the current market is nearly impossible without an inheritance.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by jeffbee on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:51PM (#28598848)
Before COVID-19, when I was still allowed to travel :-/
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by ChuckNorris89 on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:53PM (#28598869)
Prices are higher now. And please don't compare Berlin to SF it's apples and oranges.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by Ekaros on Monday September 20, 2021 @05:24PM (#28599188)
So are the wages. Or maybe not exactly that bad, but they are no where close.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by polskibus on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @05:39AM (#28603397)
I have no idea why I have been downvoted. There are many comments on HN recommending immigration to US, whereas people can remote work from Europe too. There are plenty of places where you can live well as English-speaking person. It does not have to be a capital of an EU state, there is plenty to choose from, esp. when working remotely.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by CountDrewku on Monday September 20, 2021 @05:12PM (#28599066)
Yeah you might wanna look up housing prices there. Most young people don't own and the average size of the places they live in is much smaller.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by splistud on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:21PM (#28598481)
If you lived in the types of areas where people 'move to', you'd see it's not the state that turns purple, it's the immigrants. Then they turn reddish (or they quickly leave).
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by jeffbee on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:35PM (#28598650)
OK but this is not actually happening. Young, well-educated people with high incomes are the only types of people who continue to flow into California. They are driving out poorer and generally less-well-educated people, because of course that is how it will work in a competitive housing price market.

See this report for details: https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/675

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by onlyrealcuzzo on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @04:14AM (#28603003)
The source just shows a net outmigration of taxpayers from California.

It doesn't say that rich young people are replacing old.

It just says that wealthy & older people are leaving in big enough numbers that there's a sizeable ourmigration.

It's important to note that natural born residents have been fleeing California for a long time, and a substantial portion of the young, high paid workers are on H1B - so non-permanent.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by jeffbee on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @11:47AM (#28606233)
Doesn't sound like you scrolled down. The heat maps clearly show net in-migration of younger high-earners.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by davidw on Monday September 20, 2021 @07:42PM (#28600451)
State level reform is important. Here in Oregon, we have HB2001 that allows for up to 4-plexes everywhere. City council's can't stop it. A local NIMBY lady ginned up a bunch of opposition to its local implementation and even put a full page ad in the newspaper. It went through anyway.

The folks at YIMBY Action are a great resource if you're serious about making progress on this kind of thing.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by sparrc on Monday September 20, 2021 @05:21PM (#28599166)
> Providing supply will suffer the wrath of BANANA/CAVE/NIMBY anywhere you dream of living

TBH I would have said the same thing 5-10 years ago, but I think this notion is outdated now.

I live in a famously NIMBY city (Seattle) and things have changed a lot in the last 5 years. I would guess that single-family zoning will be gone within 5 years.

Although I don't buy it, some people even argue that SFH zoning is already gone in Seattle due to ADU/DADU reforms.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by everdrive on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:40PM (#28597922)
And yet no one is promoting vasectomies. I know exactly how to reduce demand without increasing supply, but it'll take about 30 years.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by CountDrewku on Monday September 20, 2021 @05:13PM (#28599082)
The birth rate is already dropping in the US....
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by topspin on Monday September 20, 2021 @05:22PM (#28599169)
And yet the population is not. Ergo, you're competing not just with your fellow citizens, but the whole planet.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by CountDrewku on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @09:43AM (#28604953)
The OP suggested vasectomies to bring down population, the result is the same.

Are you suggesting we kill off part of the current population? What's your point with this comment?

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by loeg on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:09PM (#28597521)
The solution is to build more housing. California has historically been terrible about that but SB9 and 10 are significant steps in the right direction.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by asdff on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:20PM (#28597663)
California being terrible is only a recent phenomenom. It used to be common to convert your sfh into an apartment complex. There are 5 story single lot brick apartments on my block that are still illegal to build on a neighboring lot today with SB9 and 10.

Even just straight up rolling back to zoning codes that existed in 1960 without much further change would do a lot for supply. Los Angeles in 2010 had a population of 4 million and was zoned for 4.3 million homes. Los Angeles in 1960 on the other hand had a population of 2.5 million and was actually zoned for 10 million homes.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by tharne on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:12PM (#28597566)
It consistently shocks me how rarely this is brought up as a solution. Price of something too high? Increase the supply.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by tomkat0789 on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:23PM (#28597713)
Me too! I think the average American thinks "increase supply" means skyscrapers with apartments, rather than lower impact multiunit, mixed-use apartments/street shops that are more common in Europe.

Another issue with increasing supply/density: where is every household going to park its 2-3 cars?!

(Disclaimer: I've been watching tons of City Beautiful and Not Just Bikes on Youtube)

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by corpdronejuly on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:48PM (#28598014)
The issue is that those kinds of mixed use neighborhoods are literally illegal in most American Suburbs. Strong Towns goes over this, but our zoning laws are basically designed to create and exacerbate this problem long run
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by bernawil on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @12:41AM (#28602097)
people are arguing here that housing in Europe is even less affordable than in the US, so what is even the point?
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by scrollaway on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @04:55AM (#28603189)
The demand in Europe is just as high as in the US. Density is not the same however... Think about how large European cities would have to be in order to match US population at US density.

We don't have as many skyscrapers here.

Regardless there are plenty of reasons not to want car-centric suburbian neighbourhoods. Unwalkable, outrageously expensive to maintain, encourages car ownership and usage (yay more debt and running costs), etc.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by noneeeed on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:22PM (#28597694)
It's been so frustrating watching people celebrating UK governments who have repeatedly failed to really tackle the supply side issues while propping up the demand side with tweaks that just increase the prices.

The most amazing example of this was the stamp-duty holiday to help stimulate the market for a few months during covid. The maximum you could save was £15k. The average house price increased during that time by about £16k...

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by russx2 on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:59PM (#28598200)
They were still likely benefiting to be fair. Remember stamp duty is paid externally to the mortgage so it effectively comes off your deposit, not your loan.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by cryptoz on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:22PM (#28597695)
This is brought up all the time. There is frequently huge opposition from locals anywhere regarding increasing housing supply.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by toxik on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:32PM (#28597817)
And many times rightly so, living next door to a long construction project is a mistake I will only make once in my life. Utter insanity to be woken up by literal bombs going off in the bedrock.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by loeg on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:35PM (#28597844)
Yeah, this is why SB9/10 work - they override the problem of that vocal minority of locals.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by giantg2 on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:26PM (#28597752)
Increasing supply can help some. But when you do that, you increase demand for material and labor, which can negate some of the benefit depending on what markets we're looking at.

The real problem isn't supply at all, it's the distribution of supply and the choices of people to live there.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by ashtonkem on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:48PM (#28598027)
> The real problem isn't supply at all, it's the distribution of supply and the choices of people to live there.

I’ve said this plenty of times; America has plenty of homes, it just doesn’t have enough homes where people actually want to live.

You can get a home in my parents home town (which they left) for $60-100k right now. The issue is that there are no jobs and even fewer services. It was probably a great place to live 80 years ago when small towns were the norm, but now it’s shrinking, aging, and a long distance from any of the amenities that most Americans now demand.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by km3r on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:57PM (#28598156)
The same problem of the house price to income ratio shows there is as much of a housing shortage in rural America as well. "Solving" housing by moving all high CoL people to rural America is just going to price out all those with lower CoL area salaries. Our vacancy rate nation wide is low, likely well within the frictional margins that need to exist for a healthy market.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by giantg2 on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:42PM (#28598742)
"The same problem of the house price to income ratio shows there is as much of a housing shortage in rural America as well."

Not necessarily. You can't use the overall picture data to make claims about localized or subcategories of data. Especially if the bulk of the people live in suburban and urban areas.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by ashtonkem on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:20PM (#28598462)
This is certainly happening in small cities right now, as prices skyrocket.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by giantg2 on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:57PM (#28598177)
Remote work could solve a lot of this. I would love to live in a more rural area with cheaper housing.

"... a long distance from any of the amenities that most Americans now demand."

Like what? Many amenities and services have been moving to the at-home or online model for decades - arcades, movies, shopping, car buying, telehealth, etc. It seems there should be less reliance on physical amenities now than in the past.

We are starting to movement from HCOL and high tax areas. Companies are moving for tax and regulatory purposes and most people seem happy to follow when the cost of living is significantly lower.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by ashtonkem on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:16PM (#28598401)
The data seems to imply that remote work is letting high paid workers move from the coasts to smaller cities, not rural towns. The persistent low prices of houses in rural America certainly backs this up. Meanwhile home prices in small cities are skyrocketing.

> Like what? Many amenities and services have been moving to the at-home or online model for decades - arcades, movies, shopping, car buying, telehealth, etc. It seems there should be less reliance on physical amenities now than in the past.

My parents town’s nearest major store is a Walmart 45 minutes away. There is a significant difference between “we need less amenities now” and “we need no amenities”. Committing to an hour and a half drive for anything Amazon can’t deliver is sub ideal.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by 0xffff2 on Monday September 20, 2021 @05:30PM (#28599260)
The price of houses in rural America seems to also be skyrocketing. My house 40 miles outside of the nearest "smaller city" (population ~20k) has gone up in value over 50% since I bought it 3 years ago.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by harambae on Thursday September 23, 2021 @09:26AM (#28628784)
The price of land in the middle of the desert east of San Diego (Ocotillo Wells, Borrego Springs) is skyrocketing.

It would be utterly impractical to live there most of the year. And yet compared to NFT's and some cryptocurrencies it's probably a great investment. There's definitely a bubble going on, I just don't know when it will end or why.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by km3r on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:54PM (#28598117)
No, vacancy rates are at near all time lows. Any reputable study will show we have a housing shortage. Even in rural America, house prices are skyrocketing. We need to build more, ideally near transit hubs as to minimize the effect on infrastructure, and reduce our environmental impact.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by giantg2 on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:12PM (#28598358)
Tons of empty houses in the Appalachian region.

The vacancy rate may be at a low, but it is still about 10%. Sure, we still need to build more houses, but the point here is that distribution is important to both. If you build houses in a HCOL area, the cost will be higher. We should be looking at redistributing to areas with the highest rates of vacancy an LCOL.

Part of why prices are going up is inflation and cost of materials and labor. Prices in rural america are up, but I wouldn't say skyrocketing. There might be places that are skyrocketing, but I'm guessing they are in commute distance of the cities.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by resonantjacket5 on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:41PM (#28598723)
Those aren't really useful homes then.

The housing crisis is more accurately an imbalance of houses-to-jobs in a metro area.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by giantg2 on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:47PM (#28598793)
Remote work can unbound that, at least within a low percentage situation, like under 10% vacant. Not to mention that some companies are moving out of higher cost areas to lower cost ones (like CA to TX).
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by resonantjacket5 on Monday September 20, 2021 @05:24PM (#28599192)
Lol, and once you build houses in those new regions, I'd assume those neighbors also block new housing from being built near them? Plus there's still plenty of jobs that cannot be done remotely, I feel generally in the tech world people are highly overestimating the amount of remote jobs proportional to the rest of the population.

Why the companies are moving from California to Texas is exactly because Texas' local zoning laws aren't as stringent allowing for cheaper housing.

The fix really isn't that complicated, it's allow more houses to be built where jobs are demanded. Not quite sure why people always twist and turn justifications for why only 1-story houses should be built.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by giantg2 on Monday September 20, 2021 @06:46PM (#28600024)
"The fix really isn't that complicated, it's allow more houses to be built where jobs are demanded."

Or move jobs to areas where housing is cheaper and easier to build. Just allowing more houses to be built doesn't solve it entirely. For example, labor will be more expensive in HCOL areas.

"Why the companies are moving from California to Texas is exactly because Texas' local zoning laws aren't as stringent allowing for cheaper housing."

Not really, although it might be a secondary component. The main part is taxes and regulation.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by resonantjacket5 on Monday September 20, 2021 @06:58PM (#28600108)
> Just allowing more houses to be built doesn't solve it entirely. For example, labor will be more expensive in HCOL areas.

Labor increased cost is really nothing compared to the zoning barring new construction. If labor was truly the barrier then when upzoned no construction would take place. Additionally a large reason why labor is so expensive is from the constrained housing in the first place -- again stemming from the zoning.

> Not really, although it might be a secondary component. The main part is taxes and regulation.

Zoning is regulation.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by giantg2 on Monday September 20, 2021 @07:42PM (#28600443)
"Zoning is regulation."

Business regulation.

"If labor was truly the barrier then when upzoned no construction would take place."

Not a barrier, but a factor. You seem to be misunderstanding me. It's not that it can't be done in the populated area, but that it's better done in areas not already in a precarious situation.

"Additionally a large reason why labor is so expensive is from the constrained housing in the first place -- again stemming from the zoning."

So we have circular logic here. If the labor is expensive, you aren't going to make it cheaper (at least short term) by building more houses because the labor cost to build those houses will still be high. They have to pay their existing mortgages.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by resonantjacket5 on Monday September 20, 2021 @08:15PM (#28600647)
"Zoning is regulation." > Business regulation.

Are you really not aware that when people are mentioning Texas' easy regulation many times they are literally often talking about zoning?

> You seem to be misunderstanding me. It's not that it can't be done in the populated area, but that it's better done in areas not already in a precarious situation.

No I completely understand you, and find the "too many dense already" line of logic ludicrous. Most of these American cities have zoned over 80% of their land at one story buildings only. American cities are already at the lowest density compared to European or other countries density. They can accommodate plenty of housing fine.

> So we have circular logic here. If the labor is expensive, you aren't going to make it cheaper (at least short term) by building more houses because the labor cost to build those houses will still be high.

No there is no circular logic here. As I already noted the larger burden of the cost of housing comes from zoning restricting the amount of buildable land. And yes you will need to build lots of housing -- thats what happens one restricts building housing for decades.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by giantg2 on Monday September 20, 2021 @08:34PM (#28600756)
"Are you really not aware that when people are mentioning Texas' easy regulation many times they are literally often talking about zoning?"

Source? The ones I have seen say "business-friendly regulations". They also mention companies moving their headquarters to the state, which means taking advantage of incorporating there, which extends to out of state worker, for which zoning does not apply.

The cheaper housing is why many individuals are moving to TX.

"They can accommodate plenty of housing fine."

If the infrastructure is only set up for single family homes and the land is covered in them, then you would need massive infrastructure updates which the cities can't afford, and you would also have to demolish many existing homes to make room - what a waste.

"No there is no circular logic here. As I already noted the larger burden of the cost of housing comes from zoning restricting the amount of buildable land."

Do you have an economics background? Can you explain how the labor cost suddenly decreases as the demand for labor increase and their costs stay the same?

"... and find the "too many dense already" line of logic ludicrous."

My position is more nuanced than that. It seems you've already made up your mind and dont care to explore my position. Good luck.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by resonantjacket5 on Monday September 20, 2021 @09:56PM (#28601258)
> Source? The ones I have seen say "business-friendly regulations".

Zoning also is for businesses too. For example Elon's relatively fast approvals for their new factories

> the infrastructure is only set up for single family homes and the land is covered in them, then you would need massive infrastructure updates which the cities can't afford

Again another ludicrous claim. Seriously every country around the world can build this infrastructure for supporting beyond 1 story tall. America is not some special snowflake here. Yes it'll cost some money to upgrade it -- not it's not rocket science nor some giant cost.

You're just working backwards justifying why American cities couldn't accommodate anything beyond 1 story tall then grabbing any reason to block it.

> Do you have an economics background? Can you explain how the labor cost suddenly decreases as the demand for labor increase and their costs stay the same?

I could ask the same to you do you have an economics background? But in any case yes I do.

Regarding the labor cost, I was responding to why you think labor costs are a barrier to housing and while it's true, the root cause to solve it goes the other way around. Aka even if labor costs were flat it wouldn't solve the housing crisis.

> My position is more nuanced than that. It seems you've already made up your mind and dont care to explore my position. Good luck.

It can be as complicated as you want but as the end of the day if it's stemming from blocking housing it really isn't that special.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by maxsilver on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:39PM (#28597903)
Because it doesn't actually work. It helps a tiny little bit, in the places that are actually somewhat constrained (like SF/BayArea specifically). But it's not any kind of significant fix. Housing is an investment asset for stock market folks, it doesn't follow a Econ-101 understanding of "supply" and "demand" in any meaningful way.

The Midwest and the South are both way ahead of California on the whole "just build more housing" thing, for example, and have been for many years. And yeah, it makes us somewhat cheaper than a coastal city if you have California dollars to burn. But our Price-to-Income-Ratio's are still in the high 5-7+ range too, just like everywhere else.

We have basically zero population growth, and every single stray piece of land is getting built on right now (record high construction, record high new housing starts, for the past three years straight) and housing prices still rise 10% to 15% every single year like clockwork, with no end in sight.

"Just build more" sounds really pretty, but that alone will never get housing prices back down to a real-world-affordable figure for most people.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by marvin on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:03PM (#28598243)
Are you saying that if the housing market has 10 million homes and 7 million people live there, prices will continue to appreciate to stratospheric levels because someone will magically appear to buy the excess 3 million properties and leave them without tenants? That's what it sounds like to me.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by BirdieNZ on Monday September 20, 2021 @09:33PM (#28601146)
That does actually happen; see China, for example.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by resonantjacket5 on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:43PM (#28598750)
> Housing is an investment asset for stock market folks, it doesn't follow a Econ-101 understanding of "supply" and "demand" in any meaningful way.

You are partially right that Econ-101 doesn't explain it well, but if you take Econ-201 it does explain how housing supply/demand works. Why it doesn't work as easy as 101 is that the location matters for the 'good' unlike say cars which can be shipped in from anywhere. And also zoning artificially constrains land from being used for housing.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by taurath on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:15PM (#28598395)
We don’t build enough - density levels are extremely low compared to much of the world. Most US cities have a small downtown dense area and are surrounded by single family homes. Even the Bay Area is something like 80% single family zoned.

NYC on the other hand is a good example of what you’re talking about - it’s expensive to live there and pretty dense already. But Tokyo for example had 150k housing starts on a recent year, which is more than LA, NYC, Boston, and Houston combined (source: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/what-h...) - amp link to get around paywall.

I think there’s tons of evidence that we just don’t build enough myself. In bangkok, another market, they’re throwing up more new tall buildings every year than almost the entire USA does.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by Doches on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:40PM (#28597914)
The solution, like it's been for pretty much all of American history, is to _move_. We're a migrant people; when opportunity calls or the cost of living where you are gets too high, we go west in search of greener, cheaper, less heavily-zoned pastures.

Seems fitting that in the 21st century we flip that on its head. Cost of living in SF or Seattle got you down? Go East, young man! Head down to Texas or east to Ohio, and register to vote when you get there.

Be the change you want to see.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by tomtheelder on Monday September 20, 2021 @06:08PM (#28599653)
This is emphatically not the solution, nor is it a viable option for the vast majority of people. Uprooting oneself and losing your personal and professional networks is simply not realistic for most who aren't already very comfortable. Not to mention the damage that does to the communities that people migrate into.

The solution is, and always has been, to increase supply, specifically in the form of increased density.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by reidjs on Monday September 20, 2021 @05:16PM (#28599111)
Most of my friends and family live here. I would rather fix the problems here than move.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by m_ke on Monday September 20, 2021 @11:42AM (#28595027)
Simple solution would be to put a property and sales tax ramp on additional homes. Make landlords who own N homes pay 1.5^N the normal rate.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by corpdronejuly on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:49PM (#28598046)
The issue then becomes silly games with shell corporations hiding how many homes people own, which pushes homes into the hands of larger landlords who can afford to pay someone to play those silly games.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by soperj on Monday September 20, 2021 @05:13PM (#28599080)
Don't allow corps to own housing.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by kadomony on Monday September 20, 2021 @10:31PM (#28601456)
This is what pisses me off the most. America's housing is being sold to the wealthy, who then just turn around and siphon the rest of the wealth out of the middle-class and younger generations by forcing them into renting because the barrier to break into homeownership simply eclipses them.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by m_ke on Monday September 20, 2021 @11:27PM (#28601807)
There's a whole cottage industry of house hackers now thanks to biggerpockets who specialize in BRRRing, as in buying, doing minor renovations, raising rents and then cash out refinancing to have money for the next downpayment.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by m_ke on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:40PM (#28598704)
Make it pass through to the shareholders.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by splistud on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:28PM (#28598558)
What other ideas do you have for drastically raising the price of rent?
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by m_ke on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:37PM (#28598679)
I'd expect this policy to tank the real estate market, causing rents to fall along with it.

Since you asked, another idea would be to slap a vacancy tax on top of this.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by user_named on Monday September 20, 2021 @10:56PM (#28601633)
The simple solution is to build more.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by m_ke on Monday September 20, 2021 @11:06PM (#28601697)
As long as landlords can use equity to buy up new buildings driving up property values and rents they will continue to do so.

It's the same equation as crypto mining, as long as there's a return on investment they will continue to buy up GPUs.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by alex_sf on Monday September 20, 2021 @11:46AM (#28595103)
Millenial homeownership is almost at 50% this year. The people priced out are the loudest, but it's not overwhelmingly common in most parts of the US.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by Miner49er on Monday September 20, 2021 @12:23PM (#28595526)
That's still way lower then older generations.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by itake on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:13PM (#28597582)
I don't know if this is a problem? I am perfectly happy focusing on my career and my hobbies and not worrying about home repairs, insurance, taxes, natural disasters, etc.

It is more financially and emotionally rewarding for me to prep leetcode, solve software problems, etc. than it is to deal with home renovations, plumbing repair, etc. on a home.

Plus the flexibility of location is huge. I can follow the job market much easier if I am not locked into an address.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by gtaylor on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:50PM (#28598058)
Not everyone has the same goals or mobility as you. What you described is especially tough for families with kids.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by itake on Monday September 20, 2021 @07:44PM (#28600468)
the mobility will be less valuable, but I'd imagine if I had children, renting would give me more time to spend with them since I won't have to maintain a home.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by ac29 on Monday September 20, 2021 @12:44PM (#28595789)
Of course it is, Millennials are as young as 25 this year. Its doubtful many can afford a house just a few years out of college (and even more doubtful if they didnt go to college). Even those that can may not be ready to settle down and commit to such a large purchase.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by Miner49er on Monday September 20, 2021 @01:10PM (#28596109)
Yeah, but it's still also lower then it was for the older generations when they were at the same age.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by Thorrez on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @12:38AM (#28602084)
Older generations also went to college less frequently, so had less student debt and were able to start buying houses sooner.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by djrogers on Monday September 20, 2021 @02:47PM (#28597294)
citation?
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by Miner49er on Monday September 20, 2021 @02:55PM (#28597365)
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by admax88qqq on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:51PM (#28598075)
Older generations consumed resources at far higher than sustainable rates. I don't think older generations is an acceptable benchmark.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by refurb on Monday September 20, 2021 @12:26PM (#28595563)
Indeed. Canadian home ownership is a decades long high yet housing affordability is a hot topic.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by Doches on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:41PM (#28597930)
It's not so much that they're the loudest as it is that the other 50% of us are busy living in affordable parts of the country and getting on with our lives.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by ido on Monday September 20, 2021 @11:27AM (#28594843)
Why do you consider the 2 examples you gave “draconian”?
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by zbrozek on Monday September 20, 2021 @11:39AM (#28594985)
Not the OP, but I'll guess that it's because both of them strongly erode property rights. Another, more freedom-preserving, approach is to make it easier to build build build. Planet Money had a decent introduction a couple years ago.[0]

In the current NIMBY climate, my neighbor is struggling with the red tape to repave her driveway. Building a new home around here seems about as improbable as a hobbyist making the first human Mars landing.

[0] https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2019/03/05/700432258/the-...

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by bakuninsbart on Monday September 20, 2021 @12:02PM (#28595278)
Are property rights freedom-preserving? One of the most infuriating bits of my visit to the US West coast was driving up from LA to SF and a lot of the really nice bits of coast not being accessible to the public. There's compromises like germanic Jedermansrecht [0], but overall I think limiting property rights is often a net gain of freedom.

I do agree on the problem of NYMBYism though. There's a funny-if-not-so-sad dispute here in Berlin at the moment, where the leftist state government is desperately trying to build public housing while the leftist local government in the district of Lichtenberg is blocking a major developing due to local concern. Sadly I can't find an article in English, but I am sure there are dozens if not hundreds of examples for that.

[0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_to_roam

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by quartesixte on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:08PM (#28597508)
Those coast lines are most likely either inaccessible due to environmental protection concerns, or just straight up not easily accessible — lots of cliffs on the West Coast.

Or just not very fun to be on. The beach cities of Southern California are blessed with having some of the most accessible beaches.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by reducesuffering on Monday September 20, 2021 @12:42PM (#28595754)
All of the California coastline is public.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by jcrawfordor on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:10PM (#28597536)
California coast is public up to mean high tide. This is appreciably different from, for example, Oregon where it is public further in (typically to the vegetation line, details are slightly complex). It makes it significantly easier for California property owners to de facto remove public access to beaches, which is very common in some areas. On top of this, CA courts have often been reluctant to enforce public rights to beaches.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by ashtonkem on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:05PM (#28598260)
> Are property rights freedom-preserving?

You’ll find that historically speaking “freedom” and “property rights” are treated as synonymous for some political theorists, including the ones that founded the United States. This is one of the foundational aspects[0] of liberalism that has come to rule the western world; the idea that property rights are sacred and must have an exceptionally high bar for the collective to intercede on.

Whether or not that equivalence is true is a debatable matter. One of the unfortunate outcomes is the ability for the individual to withdraw their property from public use, often to the detriment of the whole (such as the beach example you provided).

Also, the fact that the founding thinkers of liberalism and America itself tended to own slaves or trade in them doesn’t necessarily disprove the basic argument, but it’s a pretty strong counter point at least.

0 - There are of course other tenants to liberalism that I’ve not included here, due to their irrelevance for the subject at hand.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by spoonjim on Monday September 20, 2021 @12:20PM (#28595494)
How does public housing abridge property rights?
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by zbrozek on Monday September 20, 2021 @02:37PM (#28597179)
Sorry, I think I conflated "public" with "low-income" housing in reading the comment. They're clearly different, though often uttered together.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by spoonjim on Monday September 20, 2021 @02:44PM (#28597257)
How does low income housing abridge property rights?
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by zbrozek on Monday September 20, 2021 @09:14PM (#28601026)
You're forced to rent or sell at certain prices for a certain number of units as a condition for your permit to build. So you're not building what you want to build, nor are you pricing it at market rates.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by mrfusion on Monday September 20, 2021 @11:34AM (#28594931)
Rent control really doesn’t make sense. If we could make things cheaper by passing a law we’d do it for everything.

Rent control won’t work for the same reason a price control for food or cars won’t work.

https://freakonomics.com/podcast/rent-control/

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by standardUser on Monday September 20, 2021 @11:37AM (#28594962)
Some forms of rent stabilization make perfect sense. But most of the policies implemented in big cities are far too restrictive. There is a lot of policy to be explored between "your rent never goes up forever" and "you can't be immediately evicted for no reason". No one wants the latter, but there are better ways to address that, like much longer notices for rent increases, or requiring multi-year lease options.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by nradov on Monday September 20, 2021 @12:09PM (#28595356)
San Jose limits annual rent increases to 5%. That seems reasonable (unless inflation gets out of control). Tenants aren't immediately forced out of their homes if the market rate jumps 20% in one year. But landlords can still eventually raise rents to market rates spread out over several years. There's no absolute limit on maximum rent.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by laverya on Monday September 20, 2021 @02:37PM (#28597175)
If it was inflation + 5%, I'd be fine with that - but a flat 5% limit only works so long as inflation stays low.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by dragonwriter on Monday September 20, 2021 @06:30PM (#28599885)
Technically, it only works if the (notional, I’m not sure this is an actual tracked category) PPI for rental housing is low, general (CPI) inflation may loosely correlate with that, but its not directly relevant.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by ralph84 on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:05PM (#28598267)
Inflation may not be out of control yet, but certainly things like insurance, parts and labor for repairs and maintenance, and HOA dues are already increasing more than 5%/year. And property taxes alone are guaranteed to increase 2%/year in California. Not saying we should feel sorry for landlords, but when some parts of a market have price controls and other parts don't, distortions are inevitable.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by dragonwriter on Monday September 20, 2021 @06:27PM (#28599860)
> And property taxes alone are guaranteed to increase 2%/year in California

No, they aren't. Assuming no increase in property tax rate (which is a good assumption, since your local taxing jurisdiction almost certainly already charges the maximum nominal rate of 1% allowed under Prop. 13), your property taxes will increase only by the amount your assessed value for taxation increases, which is capped to the lower of 2% or the actual annual (trailing) rate of inflation.

For 2021/2022 the actual cap is 1.036%, based on the actual California CPI for October 2019 through October 2020.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by mrfusion on Monday September 20, 2021 @11:46AM (#28595097)
Sounds feasible. I don’t normally think of that as rent control.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by lordnacho on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:25PM (#28597738)
As described by Freakonomics and general economic education, this is more or less right.

However keep in mind there's two kinds of rent. You can rent a house, or you can rent money and buy a house.

Historically and across countries there's been some willingness to restrict mortgage LTVs and interest-to-income ratios. At least in some European countries the interest ratio depends on a fixed interest rate (eg 5%) rather than the current interest rate.

We can create and destroy money more easily than we can create and destroy homes, maybe that's a worthwhile lever to try.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by antisthenes on Monday September 20, 2021 @11:45AM (#28595080)
> If we could make things cheaper by passing a law we’d do it for everything.

Price controls for medicine are proven to work, based on single payer European systems. They cost cheaper and provide better outcomes than the US system.

Yet here we are.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by nradov on Monday September 20, 2021 @12:14PM (#28595423)
That is an example of what economists call the free rider problem. European countries get cheap drugs only because they are effectively being subsidized by Americans.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/free_rider_problem.asp

Outcome differences are due more to public health and social factors like obesity. Expensive drugs or lack thereof have only a tiny impact at the population level.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by toomuchtodo on Monday September 20, 2021 @12:53PM (#28595907)
US pharma spends an outsized amount on sales and marketing, expenses that could be eliminated if public funding was spent directly on R&D.

Europeans aren’t free riding; they’re paying a reasonable rate for these goods while Americans are shouldered with extraction of revenue for pharma profits and those inefficient (and arguably unnecessary) sales and marketing expenses.

Only two countries in the world permit marketing directly to consumers to promote pharmaceuticals: the United States and New Zealand.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by nradov on Monday September 20, 2021 @01:02PM (#28596015)
There is already a lot of public funding for basic biomedical research. Actual drug development is another thing entirely. If this were publicly funded then funding would be allocated based on political priorities rather than realistic scientific and economic assessments. That misallocation of resources would overwhelm any savings from reducing sales and marketing expenses.

But in general the traditional drug development approach of finding small molecule drugs to treat specific diseases is running out of steam. Most of the low-hanging fruit has already been picked.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by cestith on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:30PM (#28597791)
A ban on marketing prescription-only drugs directly to the public existed in the US until recent decades. The amount spent on marketing skyrocketed when that ban was removed.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by nradov on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:44PM (#28597963)
Since there's no way to reinstate the marketing ban short of a Constitutional amendment (basically impossible) that point is moot.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by cestith on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @09:55AM (#28605044)
An outright ban would be very difficult now that the genie is out of the bottle. The FDA can regulate what goes in the ads, like requiring disclosure of the expected benefit, how prevalent some of those side effect them mention are, how common the condition it's meant for actually is, and of the list price of the medication. Many of these drugs are for rare conditions and the drugs, though approved, help a smaller percentage of patients than the ads portray and to a lesser extent.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by rurp on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:09PM (#28598321)
It's not like profit motive is a great allocation method either though. There are massive perverse incentives to favor expensive ongoing treatments over cures or prevention.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by disordinary on Monday September 20, 2021 @05:30PM (#28599263)
But, because healthcare is public in NZ you wouldn't bother with the brand names as you'll have to pay for them (generics are funded by the taxpayer through Pharmac, which is the crown entity that is responsible for buying all publicly funded medication for NZ).

It's like Private hospitals, we have them, but very few people use them as the public system is better equipped and paid for by the tax payer.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by JamesBarney on Monday September 20, 2021 @01:07PM (#28596070)
The way price controls affect supply is people build less of the thing who's price your controlling.

Since medicine is mostly a technological good, it lets the rest of the world freeride off America paying for much of medical R&D.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by mrfusion on Monday September 20, 2021 @11:47AM (#28595115)
That’s a little different because we’re dealing with a monopoly which can raise prices above the market rate.

But you are correct that in those cases it can work well. Same with other monopolies like utilities.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by FredPret on Monday September 20, 2021 @11:53AM (#28595177)
That’s different. The drugs are invented and produced all over the world and can be imported to Europe. So low European drug prices will harm overall pharma innovation a bit without killing the entire market.

Housing, OTOH, is always local. Low rents will discourage development which will make the real, underlying problem worse.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by standardUser on Monday September 20, 2021 @11:32AM (#28594918)
Draconian is a strong word (but cool-sounding) and what I really mean is "antiquated". But they are also somewhat blunt instruments and have historically lead to unwanted consequence. We already have more modern, market-oriented solutions, like vouchers and tax-credit housing, but those have problems too. My bigger point was, Millennials tend to react big when specific issues rise to the forefront, and if there aren't better solution than what is already on the table, we risk people clinging to whatever ideas do exist, which in the realm of housing, are mostly shit ideas.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by beepbooptheory on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:12PM (#28597561)
Its interesting how often on HN the main problem always ends up being how people will "feel" about the next crisis, and the danger of that feeling itself. It's a weird kind of proxy self-consciousness older generations have on behalf of the economy. Always and forever: "no no, it's not that bad, really!"

meanwhile people are very much homeless, whether they are millenials or not, whether they react strongly or not.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by JTbane on Monday September 20, 2021 @11:42AM (#28595036)
Econ 101 says that rent control (in effect a price ceiling) just results in scarcity (people are unable to get ANY housing), rather than actually reducing the cost of housing.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by Enginerrrd on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:36PM (#28598657)
I'm not sure why you're being downvoted. This is the theoretical prediction based on simple microeconomics. By example, I believe NY rent controls were ineffective to the point where rents outside of controlled areas went higher than they otherwise would have and within rent control areas there was (and is) scarcity of housing.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by Rebelgecko on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:48PM (#28598807)
It also exacerbates other problems that go hand in hand with urban areas, such as traffic. Most people would rather stay in their rent controlled apartment and drive an hour to work instead of having to move and pay the current market value
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by tempfs on Monday September 20, 2021 @11:47AM (#28595118)
1. Residential homes are no longer allowed to be 'investment properties' aka every person(or married couple) can own exactly one house. Corporate entities except for Banks(even then can only own it for the time it takes to sell it in the case of foreclosure) can't either.

2. Only actual Americans can own property in America. Single-fam, multi-fam, land,etc. doesn't matter.

Exactly no one needs to rent houses if mulit-fam exists and actual houses aren't speculative instruments or places where foreign nationals hide their money.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by simonsarris on Monday September 20, 2021 @12:23PM (#28595517)
Doesn't that sound insane from a mile away? By the time you are done making exceptions, you'll have infinity carve outs. This is not a solution so much as a way to squish the problem into a different, weirder shape.

1. Everyone is forced to sell their lakehouses, cabins, ADUs? Detached mother-in-laws? (wtf is "Exactly one house?")

No one is ever able to rent a single family home ever again? Right now 14.5 million households / 44 million residents rent single-family homes in the United States. They're... out of luck? On the street? Gotta save for a down payment? If those houses are force-sold, don't you think people-other-than-the-current-inhabitants will come in and buy them?

Actually, can anyone ever rent ever again? Or is it a buy-vs-homeless dichotomy here? Or do towns have to become miniature companies and play landlord? Or states?

2. Timber companies are forced to give up their land, bankrupting all of them and driving the cost of wood sky high. Mobile home land must now be sold, except no one can buy it. Farms except for sole proprietors are forced to give up their land (sorry partnerships, amish, people with discontiguous lots, and everyone who wants to eat this year, you're out of luck)

IMO you should focus on laws that let people build more (eg, ADUs, duplexing) rather than getting out the stick and hoping there won't be huge side effects.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by amrocha on Monday September 20, 2021 @09:06PM (#28600979)
You know public housing is a thing right? You don't need to rent from the private market, that's just how it is right now
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by lastofthemojito on Monday September 20, 2021 @12:08PM (#28595348)
Even "simple" solutions like those you've proposed so often wind up having unintended consequences.

For your first proposal, I wonder about folks buying a house through an LLC or trust as folks often do to protect their privacy. Are we banning that? I also wonder about inheritance - if I own a house and my parents die, leaving me their house, how long do I have to sell one to be "in compliance?". Maybe their house needs work and I'd like to spend a few months or a year fixing it up to maximize what it'll sell for. Is that ok? And speaking of timing - I remember during the wave of foreclosures after the last housing bubble, banks kept a lot of houses off the market for a while to moderate prices, rather than listing everything at once and panicking the market further. Seems like banks ought to have some leeway to maximize their return (e.g. if a house has a pool and is foreclosed on in the late fall, maybe they judge that waiting until spring would get a better response from buyers).

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by leetcrew on Monday September 20, 2021 @12:48PM (#28595837)
> Exactly no one needs to rent houses if mulit-fam exists and actual houses aren't speculative instruments or places where foreign nationals hide their money.

okay, but what if I have (an opportunity for) positive cashflow, minimal savings, and want to move away from my parents' house? does it just suck to be me or what?

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by swiley on Monday September 20, 2021 @01:05PM (#28596043)
There are good reasons to be a renter, it’s hard enough getting an apartment in the time between accepting a job offer and your start date, I couldn’t imagine hunting for a house/condo in that time.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by jakemoshenko on Monday September 20, 2021 @12:20PM (#28595492)
Where do you expect rental housing stock to come from in this scenario?
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by JamesBarney on Monday September 20, 2021 @11:58AM (#28595242)
1. Just bans people from renting houses to other people. This reduces the supply of rentable houses to 0. Reduces the supply of rentable stock in general. And very slightly marginally reduces the price of houses.

2. Can corporations still own commercial property? And can foreigners own corporations ?

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by ch4s3 on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:39PM (#28597897)
Who builds new homes if builders can't own them pre-sale? I imagine you have a carve out for that, but who qualifies as a builder?

What about people who want to live in cities? How do they come together to build say a small condo building? Do we only allow co-ops? How is that financed?

When you say "Americans", do you only mean citizens or permanent residents? Where do temporary residents live?

How do people move to new cities/states? Where will the new housing come from?

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by tov247 on Monday September 20, 2021 @04:17PM (#28598420)
The solutions are political not technical. Housing needs to be something that isn't used primarily to make money. Cooperatives, Vienna-style PPPs, and a society where if your house price doesn't constantly increase you can afford to retire.
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by mistrial9 on Monday September 20, 2021 @03:05PM (#28597473)
California "small house" duplexes are being built at this moment, by the thousands.. maybe permits, maybe not.. just saying what I see
Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by CountDrewku on Monday September 20, 2021 @05:09PM (#28599043)
The solution is to leave cities that aren't affordable. Sorry, but you may not get to live beach-side or be in walking distance from your hipster coffee joint in downtown SF.

I really think a lot of the problem is our generation grew up watching too many movies and they just think it's normal to live in some high end condo in Manhattan while working for Enterprise Rent-A-Car. That's not realistic.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by hiram112 on Monday September 20, 2021 @11:39PM (#28601858)
Yeah a lot of older millennials grew up on shows like Friends. We were disappointed in our mid-20s when we discovered our entry-level job wouldn't afford that large condo in downtown SF or Manhattan.

But it has got out of hand. I earn 90% more than most full time workers. And like 50%+ of "households" out there, it's just me, so no dual income. And I don't think it's appropriate to expect 40 year olds to still live with a bunch of roommates like they did when they're 22.

Forget the 2K ft^2 apartment in Manhattan or Mission District, I can't even afford the starter home out in Jersey or East Bay or Beltway DC. These aren't the mythical "McMansions" that everybody always uses to deflect from the affordability crisis - these are the exact same properties on tiny lots that a single-earning non-college-educated factory worker or postman or paper pusher could easily afford for his family in previous generations.

And if I - earning 2x-3x more than most workers - can't afford these basic homes, how the hell does everyone else who earns the median income of $60K do it?

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by CountDrewku on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @01:34PM (#28607453)
>And if I - earning 2x-3x more than most workers - can't afford these basic homes, how the hell does everyone else who earns the median income of $60K do it?

By living in a rural area or not on the coasts.

>And I don't think it's appropriate to expect 40 year olds to still live with a bunch of roommates like they did when they're 22.

I guess that depends on your culture. It's pretty normal to have multiple families or roommates in other countries.

The only legit way I can see to fixing some of these issues is to ensure you do not let investors outside of your country buy up property. China is notorious for this. Secondly maybe you limit companies like Blackrock as well. I really dislike the idea of rent control. I don't think people that own a few properties should be punished and pushed out of the market. This just leads to larger corporations owning everything.

Re:Home Price to Income Ratio by bserge on Monday September 20, 2021 @11:32AM (#28594905)
That's gonna happen anyway, so as the millennials said, YOLO.