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Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by Barrin92 on Thursday December 31, 2020 @05:43PM (#25598031)
>The scarcity of block chain space has led people to re-invent every last feature of the banks they thought they were going to be escaping.

This is a pretty funny point because every time I go on twitter and see people talk about crypto, what they're essentially having is a discussion about public policy, and often they seem to try to reinvent institutions that already exist without even knowing it. From market-makers, exchanges, insurance and so on, precisely as the author points out all the dreaded middlemen they were trying to avoid

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by hombre_fatal on Thursday December 31, 2020 @05:53PM (#25598136)
I don't see the irony.

The point is that Bitcoin has introduced an actual "digital cash" currency without institutional/governmental middlemen. That institutions can be built on top of that, and that some people want such institutions, doesn't change the novel utility of finally having a currency that functions like digital cash.

It's like saying it's ironic that people use physical USD for anonymous p2p transactions when USD banking systems have KYC laws. It's a non sequitur.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by addicted on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:04PM (#25598250)
No one treats Bitcoin as a currency. It’s treated as an investment vehicle.

And the reason behind that is obvious. Something whose value may double in a month or whose value may halve within weeks is a terrible currency.

If I expect it’s value to increase then I would be a fool to spend it. If I expect it’s value to drop I would be a fool to accept it.

Cryptocurrencies are anything but currencies.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by im_down_w_otp on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:15PM (#25598356)
Technically speaking, it's also a terrible investment vehicle for those same reasons. It's a fantastic parlor game of speculation though, where the point is the volatility.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by aplummer on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:48PM (#25598712)
I stopped being annoyed by crypto generally when people stopped pitching me insane scams of how the entire internet 2.0 was going to run on blockchain (its not) and they accepted its a fun gambling vehicle.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by wpietri on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:14PM (#25598938)
Exactly. It frustrates me that the term "investment" has been stretched to include raw speculation. People are welcome to do either one, but it's dangerous when people confuse zero-sum and positive-sum games. Buying any currency, crypto- or otherwise, is like playing the ponies: for every dollar won, there's (at least) a dollar lost. That's very different than investing in a company, which hopefully uses the money to create value.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by nfin on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:30PM (#25599094)
that‘s not true.

Would be true if bitcoin was full premined, but it wasn‘t.

There are still 900 new bitcoins mined per day, and with an open source / patent free environment the space is a competitive market, the cost to produce one should tend towards the price of selling it (less so when the price rises quickly).

So how is at least a dollar lost (for every dollar won)?

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by wpietri on Friday January 01, 2021 @04:18AM (#25601933)
The new coins aren't handed out generally. They are rewards to the "miners". They're relevant only for people going into the mining business. I'm talking about price speculation.

For people speculating, there's always a buyer and a seller. If I buy $100 of Bitcoin from person A and then later sell that for $101 to person B, then I have gained a dollar. A dollar that A would have gotten had they held on, or B would have gotten had they bought in earlier. It's a zero sum game. Except that everybody involved is paying transaction fees, putting in otherwise-valuable time, and taking risk (e.g., of theft), so in reality it's a negative sum game.

That's very different than actual investing. If I put $100 into a friend's company, then they will hopefully use that money to create something more valuable than the total investment. I'll come out ahead, but so will my friend and my friend's customers. That's a positive-sum game.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by nootropicat on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:56PM (#25599396)
If your point was that bitcoin is worse than zero-sum because it generates net losses, then you're right.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by thebean11 on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:27PM (#25598462)
It's volatile, but the overwhelming trend has been upwards. Historically it's a great investment if you can weather volatility
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by bluedevil2k on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:46PM (#25598687)
> overwhelming trend has been upwards

You’re cherry picking your price analysis time period. Last year I could have said “BTC has trended down tremendously the last 2 years” and I’d have been right as well.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by thebean11 on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:51PM (#25598738)
I'm looking a lot further back than two years. What I said is true even if you ignore the current run up.

If you want to make the opposite argument, that it has a downward trend, you have to cherry pick a fairly small period.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by darawk on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:08PM (#25598878)
This is a pretty silly comment. It's you that's cherry picking. The overall trend of Bitcoin over its lifetime has been up. Any complete analysis of its time series would tell you that. Buying at any point in its history would have been a good idea.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by bluedevil2k on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:21PM (#25598998)
This is the same argument Wirecard shareholders always made.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by darawk on Friday January 01, 2021 @01:52AM (#25601418)
No it isn't. I am not arguing that the price going up makes it good. That would be silly. I am merely disputing the characterization of the prior comment as 'cherry picking'.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by scotty79 on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:14PM (#25598930)
Bitcoin never dropped below its previous peak.

You have to cherry-pick narrow enough time period to see bitcoin dropping in price.

If you pick sufficiently large time period bitcoin always grows. This screms 'investment'.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by bluedevil2k on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:16PM (#25598954)
So did Enron
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by scotty79 on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:39PM (#25599188)
Except that bitcoin books are open and they don't describe the thing, they are the thing.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by brianobush on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:17PM (#25598964)
Do any simple technical analysis and you will find an upward trend over its existence. You don't look at a narrow window.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by bluedevil2k on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:21PM (#25599004)
Technical analysis has continually been shown to not work in predicting future prices.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by brianobush on Friday January 01, 2021 @03:08PM (#25606438)
I am talking about past prices.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by ur-whale on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:38PM (#25599187)
While HN pundits have clearly been much more successful at it.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by aplummer on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:50PM (#25598726)
So is roulette if you win. A "good investment" in many contexts has a 20 year lifespan and low risk profile, so TBD.

I'm not saying its bad, but its an extremely high risk investment so not suitable for the money you can't afford to lose. I've heard of many people withdrawing superannuation to put into crypto (or using credit) for example.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by ur-whale on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:37PM (#25599185)
I really dislike the way the finance industry has been conflating two notions that - while related - are actually different: that of volatility and that of risk.

Volatility results from the fact that the markets have a very hard time pricing an asset (because the asset's properties are hard to understand and its future behavior is therefor hard to predict).

This results in the creation of noise on the price signal.

It does not mean the asset is inherently bad. It just reflects lack of knowledge.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by thebean11 on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:59PM (#25598807)
Well I don't think roulette is a good comparison, roulette has a capped upside with a known, negative expected value. Agree with the rest of your comment though.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by scotty79 on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:10PM (#25598902)
Over period of 10 years behavior of Bitcoin price was extremely predictable.

https://miro.medium.com/max/1838/1*Ao2C0phpSfknHvorWl2a3Q.pn...

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by hombre_fatal on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:12PM (#25598338)
I use Bitcoin where ever possible, so your opening claim is wrong.

I've been banned from Paypal. I've run into many verification issues over the last decade with banks because I have no proof of residency once my driver's license expired.

Like physical cash, it doesn't need to be superior in all ways to be useful at all.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by reaperducer on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:27PM (#25598470)
I have no proof of residency once my driver's license expired.

Every state I've lived in (13 so far) has an ID card that looks and acts exactly like a driver's license, with the only legal difference being that it is not valid for driving.

Unless you're not in America, in which case someone else can chime in.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by hombre_fatal on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:34PM (#25598546)
If you don't live in the US, then it becomes difficult to prove state residency as they want things like pay stubs, cellphone bills, and rent payments. Or you need to find someone who can prove residency and then claim (lie) that you reside (domicile) with them.

I don't have any of that. But maybe you can appreciate that I don't want to have to jump through those hoops just to be able to send someone $100 digitally.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by aplummer on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:52PM (#25598750)
> But maybe you can appreciate that I don't want to have to jump through those hoops just to be able to send someone $100 digitally.

Surely you store fiat currency somewhere, and isn't there a "transfer money" button where you plug in an account number and institution and the money arrives shortly after?

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by michaelmrose on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:39PM (#25599193)
for almost 1/4 of the population of the US that isn't actually true.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by jen20 on Friday January 01, 2021 @06:43PM (#25608560)
While I assume you're talking about those without bank accounts in this statistic, it's also not true of most bank accounts in the US either so far as I can tell.

The inability to make transfers immediately and without fees between accounts held at different banks is bizarre for those used to UK banking.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by Trasmatta on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:27PM (#25598464)
Do you live in the US? If so, how do you deal with the tax implications of buying lots of things with crypto? It's my understanding that each of those is considered a taxable event that you have to report on your tax return.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by gruez on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:35PM (#25598568)
>It's my understanding that each of those is considered a taxable event that you have to report on your tax return.

Isn't that trivial to do from a reporting point of view? Just export your wallet history and do a lookup on that day's price.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by Trasmatta on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:40PM (#25598628)
Yeah I guess so, it still seems like it could be a major pain. Especially if somebody, say, transferred money between wallets and didn't keep good records. Or messed up the cost basis somehow. Or didn't think to set aside the necessary taxes every time, and then finds themselves with an unexpectedly large tax bill at the end of the year.

It's another reason why using a cryptocurrency is still a gigantic hassle in comparison to fiat.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by ojhughes on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:35PM (#25598564)
You also need a valid ID verification to buy BTC from the main platforms now
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by hombre_fatal on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:40PM (#25598620)
Yeah, Coinbase changed the other year, only for US citizens, where a passport is insufficient, you need to prove state residency (i.e. for most people, a driver's license).

But one of my points here is that, while I'm sure some people here are chomping at the bit to nail me with a gleeful "see? ironic!", I simply don't have to use Coinbase. I can, for example, exchange Bitcoin locally the same way I can trade USD for pesos with my roommate. I was SOL at one point when I was simultaneously banned from Paypal while my bank at the time spontaneously rejected further access to my own account, the two institutions I was depending on to operate abroad. It's what made me turn to Bitcoin, and I began considering how ridiculous the state of our financial status quo where I have precarious access to my own money.

I can appreciate that my outlier needs make it hard for people to relate to me the same way most people don't understand why an HNer cares about Linux when Windows works for them, but I think most people here are disappointingly eager to reject any possible upside of "digital cash". Even if its upsides are exceedingly niche for most people, that's not reason to dismiss them.

To me it's like reading an HN thread where everyone dismisses Purism's smartphone because Android and iPhone do the job for 99.9999% of people, and who the hell could possibly care about separating the CPU from cellular baseband? Or maybe they're claiming that only criminals would care about that. Well, that very few people are in a position to appreciate it has no basis on whether we deserve the option.

This is my last comment on this particular submission.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by uep on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:10PM (#25598898)
Are you primarily engaged in illegal actions for your source of income? Your other comments in this thread seem to imply that is the case. No judgement, but if so, I think this is a pertinent piece of information.

It is not difficult for most citizens in first world nations to keep and maintain a bank account.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by michaelmrose on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:43PM (#25599252)
22% of the US doesn't have a bank account. For myself when I lost my house I also ended up owing my bank money for an almost $500 overdraft used to pay the cost of moving bam no bank account and auto denial insofar as opening another account anywhere else.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by wpietri on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:19PM (#25598987)
Those analogies don't work for me. I already have "digital cash". The great bulk of the money I spend never takes physical form. And I use Linux because it's demonstrably superior for the tasks most important to me. Bitcoin, though, mainly seems to solve problems for speculators and people engaging in light financial crime. Is there a niche I'm missing?
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by _red on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:25PM (#25599039)
>Bitcoin, though, mainly seems to solve problems for speculators and people engaging in light financial crime. Is there a niche I'm missing?

Do you have a source for that?

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by galvin on Thursday December 31, 2020 @08:04PM (#25599495)
The comment you replied to is the source. What other type of source would you like for what something "seems" like to an individual?

It seems to me that asking for sources is a common technique for discrediting opinions on HN. It looks like a legitimate question but obviously if they had a source it would be a fact rather than an opinion.

If you are actually interested in how that opinion is formed ask a relevant question or point out what they are missing.

Personally I find that opinion entirely reasonable given that there are no problems I have that Bitcoin would solve better than the alternatives unless I was inclined to buy something online anonymously or to speculate on Bitcoin itself.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by rualca on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:18PM (#25598386)
> I use Bitcoin where ever possible, so your opening claim is wrong.

Just because a random guy barters bitcoins for goods/services, that by no means implies that bitcoin is anything close to money.

There is a very specific definition of what money is, and bitcoin's volatility alone rules it completely out.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by wongarsu on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:37PM (#25598597)
It's not one guy bartering, it's a lot of services offering it as a payment option, treating it effectively like a foreign currency with a different set of payment providers
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by rualca on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:36PM (#25599164)
> It's not one guy bartering

It takes two to barter.

> treating it effectively like a foreign currency

They really aren't. They accept bitcoins in exchange for goods/services, just like we see in any barter system.

Calling bitcoins "foreign currency" is just a desperate attempt to hide the obvious consequences of it's volatility, which eliminates it's role as money, not only as a store of value but also as unit of account.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by sunshinerag on Friday January 01, 2021 @04:44AM (#25602047)
oh what is this very specific definition of what money is does the non-random guy on internet have?
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by rualca on Friday January 01, 2021 @06:09AM (#25602427)
> oh what is this very specific definition of what money is does the non-random guy on internet have?

Each and every single random guy on the internet who wants to buy stuff with money cares about money, and the properties that allow something to work as money.

Specifically, properties like being stable in its value within the market, and reliable both as a means of deferred payments and meet debts.

Bitcoin, or any cryptocurrency, is nothing of the sort. Far from it.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by sunshinerag on Friday January 01, 2021 @11:55AM (#25604560)
>> Bitcoin, or any cryptocurrency, is nothing of the sort. Far from it.

For some random guys on the internet. yes. Some other guys are using it without waiting for it to be everything the previous system had. (deferred payments etc.).

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by newdude116 on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:33PM (#25598536)
Well bitcoin is as much money as FIAT money, except if you consider money credit. Than indeed, bitcoin would not be money.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by dragonwriter on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:55PM (#25599385)
> Well bitcoin is as much money as FIAT money

No, it's not. It’s too volatile to be an efficient store of value or a useful unit of account for general purposes; it's got some use as a competitive medium of exchange for certain circumstances (but again not really with the generality of any major fiat currency.)

It's commodity that seems to (retrospectively, at least, and there is some reason to expect this to continue for the near future) have good investment performance if you are in a position to wait out down periods, which makes it nice as a component of an investment portfolio.

It's good at things that aren't the purpose of money, but mostly not good for things that are the purposes of money, except for a narrow subset of one of three major purposes of money.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by rualca on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:42PM (#25599229)
> Than indeed, bitcoin would not be money.

Bitcoin is obviously not money, and among the many reasons the fact that it does not serve as a store of value nor a means to defer payments, which is a single requirement that comprised the very definition of money, is just one of them.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by bluedevil2k on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:48PM (#25598706)
The US government would not accept BTC as payment for anything, so it is definitely NOT a fiat money.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by phpwutz on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:51PM (#25599340)
The actual only criteria of fiat money I learned in austrian high school was "government will accept taxes in that currency". We have quiet a long history of taxes here, ranging from cows or sacks of grain to gold to gold coins to gulden to reichsmark to schilling to euro. Probably a good measure of centuries more than the US (which basically got kickstarted with the UK system at the time). Funnily enough, the above definition was the only thing holding true through the centuries. Thing is, if your government accepts taxes in a certain currency (even if it's a foreign one, that's perfectly fine too) it creates a stability by itself which fosters the usability (call it user friendlyness if you like) of the currency. In that sense, I'm fairly sure that unless you are personal friends with the president you cannot pay your taxes in Euro the same way you cannot pay them in ₿, Pesos or ¥ because the currency the US claims their taxes in is USD. Please prove me wrong or gib a better definition if I'm wrong :) Happy New Year everyone!
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by louwrentius on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:38PM (#25598607)
The kind of problems you have are not solved with crypto currency, let’s be real about this.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by yunesj on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:21PM (#25598412)
> No one treats Bitcoin as a currency. ... And the reason behind that is obvious. Something whose value may double in a month or whose value may halve within weeks is a terrible currency.

Nope. I don't buy things in crypto only because of the reporting burden. Every cup of coffee bought with crypto has to be reported on a tax return.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by ur-whale on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:12PM (#25598920)
> t buy things in crypto only because of the reporting burden.

You should.

And then report every cup of coffe on your tax return.

And file on actual physical paper, preferably printed with a font that's hard to machine-read.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by imtringued on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:43PM (#25599253)
That makes no sense unless you are converting the bitcoin to dollars but then it's not being used as a currency. If it was a currency the business would accept bitcoin directly and thus there would be no need to report it on your tax returns.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by yunesj on Friday January 01, 2021 @12:27AM (#25601127)
That’s incorrect. When you buy something with bitcoin, even if it is priced in bitcoin, the IRS considers it a sale or exchange of a capital asset and you have to report the transaction on your return.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by christiansakai on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:42PM (#25598649)
I didn’t know this is the case. Source?
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by freeone3000 on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:48PM (#25598707)
https://www.irs.gov/irb/2014-16_IRB#NOT-2014-21

It's reported as a security - other, which is laid out like the stock trades 1099. Your taxable amount is the difference in price between what you paid for the currency and what you "sold" it for (both in USD).

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by px43 on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:47PM (#25598693)
[deleted by user]
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by kens on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:51PM (#25598731)
> I've been advised that there's an income tax exemption for "hobby income" ... up to 10k USD per year

If you're talking about the US, I think you're wrong: you need to declare all your hobby income, and since 2018, you can't deduct hobby expenses.

See e.g. https://www.creditkarma.com/tax/i/hobby-income-taxed https://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tips/self-employment-taxes/4...

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by px43 on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:01PM (#25598817)
Ah yeah, looks like things might have changed since I got that guidance.

That's annoying. Would be nice if they didn't keep changing things around all the time.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by thelittleone on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:36PM (#25598577)
"No one treats Bitcoin as a currency. It’s treated as an investment vehicle."

I, for one, have and will continue to use it as a currency in some cases. I'm quite sure I'm not the only one.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by ashtonkem on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:39PM (#25598614)
To a first order approximation, nobody uses bitcoin as a currency. There are a handful of enthusiasts who might use it such as yourself, but you are in the absolute minority of bitcoin holders.

HODL would not be the meme it was if the goal was to actually use bitcoin in day to day transactions.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by thelittleone on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:02PM (#25598825)
This is an opinion presented as a fact. A source would be helpful.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by bluedevil2k on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:39PM (#25598612)
I’ll call BS on this - are you actively selling it to buy things online? And you buying BTC when you have spare money in checking accounts? Is your turnover like 10-20%? I’m guessing you’re a buy and hold person with BTC, which makes you an investor in it.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by thelittleone on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:05PM (#25598845)
I've accepted payments for a holiday rental via Bitcoin, some of which I've used to purchase other items.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by colinmhayes on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:48PM (#25598708)
I'll admit that I do buy bitcoin for use as currency. It is still the easiest way to remain pseudonymous digitally. To me it's similar to gold. Most people use it as an investment vehicle, some use it because it's an efficient way to store value that is hard to track.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by icedchai on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:44PM (#25598668)
I used to buy things with bitcoin, but every time I have regretted it. It would've been better to use cash and keep holding.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by ur-whale on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:16PM (#25598958)
> t buy things in crypto only because of the reporting burden.

There's an easy solution to that problem: spend BTC when you buy things, and then every week-end, buy it back to get rid of whatever monkey money (fiat) people gave you (salary,payments,etc...)

That seems like a lot of work, but it's easy to automate.

And if enough people do this, this will strengthen the BTC economy and weaken fiat, so you can feel good about yourself when you go to bed.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by reiderrider on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:16PM (#25598948)
I also use Bitcoin as a currency (via Coinbase). I love the reactions. It’s not commonly accepted in my area so I’m only using it for haircuts and holiday bonuses, but would gladly buy more with it. Excited about Etherium’s DApps but having trouble creating viable ones in my industry (insurance). BTC’s transaction cost is worrisome (who is spending $6 in transactions fees for small purchases). Monero has some serious advantages over BTC (privacy and transaction costs).
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by drschwabe on Thursday December 31, 2020 @08:12PM (#25599592)
Encourage your current 'Bitcoin friendly vendors' to accept Lightning network payments. Your Bitcoin tx fees can then be fractions of cents.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by tshaddox on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:12PM (#25598336)
Isn’t it impossible for the market value to change without both a buyer and a seller?
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by arthurcolle on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:31PM (#25599104)
This is solved on the vendor and the buyer side by using "acceptable thresholds of difference" that can be specified with a configuration file. For example, Coinbase Commerce uses this mechanism.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by ojhughes on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:27PM (#25598467)
Buying drugs with BTC is very widespread and probably what fuelled the initial adoption. How is that anything but a currency?
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by ashtonkem on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:42PM (#25598643)
By that logic, Tide is now a currency.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by almost_usual on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:40PM (#25598624)
So buying drugs in 2010 makes it a currency, gotcha.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by ojhughes on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:47PM (#25598701)
Last time I checked drugs were still pretty popular in 2020 and no one wants to hang around big Daves dirty house to buy some weed
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by TedDoesntTalk on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:56PM (#25598780)
Monero is used now. Not Bitcoin.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by sn_master on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:17PM (#25598965)
Most of Monero is actually paid for in Bitcoin via online exchanges. WH stopped doing auto-exchange just few weeks ago, but many other exchanges are still up with barely any kind of validation, not even an e-mail.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by sn_master on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:08PM (#25598883)
> No one treats Bitcoin as a currency.

Ask the people who bought hundreds of millions of dollars (without inflation) of drugs on Silk Road, Empire Market, White House Market etc since 2013 until now. I am making up hundreds of millions based on the seized Bitcoins by the FBI, the real number probably exceeded Billions a long time ago already.

The WannaCry and other ransomware folks don't sit on their millions of dollars of extorted Monero/Bitcoin either. They buy cars and fancy things with them, and that's one reason many of them got arrested.

Few real world examples of scams against everyday folks:

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=canada+bitcoin+...

Safeway now has BTC ATMs and we we'll be able to drop "canada" from the query and get good results from the US soon.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by option on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:09PM (#25598299)
I grew up in Ukraine where my parents were earning and spending hryvna (local currency, high inflation) while saving in USD (much more stable). And a big value prop in favor of US dollar was its immunity to local country’s politics.

Bitcoin has a potential to serve as that kind of saving “currency” a lot of people actually need.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by tekkk on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:54PM (#25598760)
Not to burst your bubble but assets with extreme volatility, like bitcoin, are not suitable for saving purposes. Investment maybe, but not saving. I assume "saving" purpose in this case means that it withholds its value while being easily liquidable.

If you on the other hand have a long saving window so you can tolerate huge swings in the price of the bitcoin (or other cryptocurrency) then the question arises why not diversify your investments like regular people and buy ETFs or other assets?

Maybe buying ETFs is harder than buying bitcoins, but in general the idea is (I assume) the same. However, what I feel most people are allured by with bitcoin is its random price movements where out of nowhere its price surges up and creates a total hysteria in the market.

I myself heavily dislike assets which price is mainly driven by emotional rationale and while bitcoin's idea may be good, I would not suggest anyone to put their savings in bitcoin. It would seem to encourage people to treat markets with magical thinking where the prices are set by otherworldly powers and not as tied to the revenue stream that is generated by the said asset.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by bitxbitxbitcoin on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:04PM (#25598842)
Despite the crazy year, bitcoin still has less extreme volatility than some actual country's currencies. So for that small percentage of the world, bitcoin is a better "currency" too - besides for obvious things like local brick and mortar acceptance.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by tekkk on Friday January 01, 2021 @03:22AM (#25601704)
Sure but the de facto standard way of dealing with this issue is storing cash in a well-established fiat currency, like US dollar. Although I'm not sure what are you implying. I would assume buying US dollars is as easy as buying bitcoins in most cases. And more accepted too. The only problem being having to have either a bank account or physical notes somewhere stored.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by drschwabe on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:47PM (#25599288)
As a freelance programmer/UX designer I offer my clients to pay in Bitcoin (yes, as a currency).

So far over the course of my decade-ish long career most invoices are paid via fiat but actually my record sale was paid in Bitcoin. The client paid for approx 500 consulting hours in BTC (and is still a client to this day, paying for many more hours than that batch in subsequent purchases albeit sometimes in fiat).

I prefer Bitcoin over government fiat currency when doing large transactions like that because of the risk that a bank will freeze the funds or hold the transaction arbitrarily without warning and on either side of the equation; ie- you don't know if the party sending or receiving may be subject to the freeze.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by glenstein on Thursday December 31, 2020 @08:18PM (#25599654)
>No one treats Bitcoin as a currency.

I wouldn't necessarily say that most of its market cap is coming from people treating it like a currency. But I most definitely think it is effectively a currency in some places and in some special circumstances.

I take it that the point of the post is that, by and large, due to the fact that the blockchain is public and analyzed and mining is conceivably traceable to special purpose hardware, it's not for many practical purposes usable as a stateless, institution-free vehicle for transactions.

I'm not sure how to square the circle on this, but it certainly is a currency in some cases.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by hunter-gatherer on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:18PM (#25598981)
My spouse in European and before her immigration to the US happened I would send her bitcoin or litecoin when she needed money (she was in school). It worked despite the volatility. She'd tell me when she needs some, I'd send it and she'd sell. Total flight time was ~10 minutes. Super useful for sending amounts that are less than 200 dollars.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by StavrosK on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:16PM (#25598367)
This is only true if everyone using the currency agreed completely on its future value. Currently, some people think it'll tank and sell, and others think it'll rise and buy.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by hnracer on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:19PM (#25598395)
You can just hedge your exposure on a futures exchange and still use BTC to transact but be unexposed to any price movements. Although doing that is very complicated and defeats the purpose of an easy to use alternative to centralized cash.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by bostonsre on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:34PM (#25598550)
That sounds like it could be a PITA for everyday people tho.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by hnracer on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:55PM (#25598774)
Indeed but I wonder if one could build a platform that does this behind the scenes. User sends BTC to the online wallet, and the site hedges on behalf of the user on one of the liquid future exchanges, locking in the prevailing BTC price. People can make payments out of this online wallet with just as much ease as they're currently doing. Then they have an easy to use digital cash without any price risk.

The site charges a small fee for the service of derisking the holdings.

This does seem to solve a real user pain point (risk and the complexity of hedging) and benefits from scale economies.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by mandelbrotwurst on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:01PM (#25598820)
Bitcoin is volatile because it is not yet widely used and the market for is still relatively small.

Yes, people are investing to speculate on its price, but they are also investing because it has a fixed supply that cannot be inflated away by governments.

Take a look at the U.S. M2 money supply YTD and the DXY and consider what happens next as more wealthy investors begin to recognize this advantage inherent in Bitcoin.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by majewsky on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:22PM (#25599013)
Wealthy investors are exactly the kind of people who (through lobbying) designed the current financial system.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by mandelbrotwurst on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:42PM (#25599241)
That's true, how does it relate to what I was saying?
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by pvg on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:01PM (#25598217)
The intent was 'actual digital cash', the result was 'instrument for speculation, money laundering and other fraud' which is entirely dependent on actual real money (and its institutions). Whether one finds that ironic or not is a matter of taste but it's clearly not exactly what the goal of "digital cash" was supposed to be.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by hombre_fatal on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:06PM (#25598266)
That's just the reality of cash, no less in digital form, so it would be naive to think Bitcoin wouldn't inherit the same uses of USD (speculation, money laundering, fraud). It's just not very damning. Though I'm sure various people in the government/Visa would love to ban USD cash with the same demonization.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by VintageCool on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:14PM (#25598351)
Except that cash in USD is also used as a medium of exchange.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by wongarsu on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:41PM (#25598635)
Any VPN service offers the option to pay in bitcoin, as do many other sites. There are entire marketplaces on Tor where bitcoin is the primary currency.
[dead]
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by dang on Monday January 04, 2021 @03:09PM (#25637157)
Please make your substantive points without swipes or name-calling. Your comment would be fine without that first bit.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by ricopags on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:43PM (#25598664)
How does getting paid in BTC work? Are you set a rate of bitcoin you get paid that amount or do you have a salary in dollars and you get paid whatever btc satisfies that?
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by gautamcgoel on Thursday December 31, 2020 @09:22PM (#25600183)
Can you explain how you paid rent in Bitcoin? There's no way my landlord would put up with that!
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by colinmhayes on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:43PM (#25598658)
This is an extremely tiring response. Just because you're a pyscho doesn't mean bitcoin makes sense as a currency. The vast majority of institutions will not accept bitcoin as payment because they realize it's a horrible currency.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by dang on Monday January 04, 2021 @03:09PM (#25637166)
Taking threads further into flamewar like this will get you banned here. Personal attacks especially.

If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and sticking to the rules when posting here, we'd be grateful.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by nwienert on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:12PM (#25598340)
Not the reality of cash as cash doesn’t change value like Bitcoin (in either direction), it’s also usually not scarce, and always much easier to use.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by StavrosK on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:17PM (#25598378)
The dollar doesn't change value like Bitcoin, not cash as a whole.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by nwienert on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:49PM (#25599316)
What we define as a good currency doesn’t. A currency that inflates or deflates dramatically is foundering.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by StavrosK on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:52PM (#25599351)
So are we talking about "a good currency", or "cash"? Because the initial comment said "cash".
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by nwienert on Thursday December 31, 2020 @08:19PM (#25599665)
I guess we’re just establishing that Bitcoin doesn’t fit the definition of a functional currency of which cash is a subset.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by StavrosK on Thursday December 31, 2020 @08:22PM (#25599691)
I disagree, I think Bitcoin is excellent digital cash, but not of a great currency yet.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by sunshinerag on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:27PM (#25598463)
oh yes it does, it has crashed more than 2000% vs Bitcoin in a decade.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by bluedevil2k on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:41PM (#25598631)
That’s completely wrong. You would never say “the US dollar has crashed compared to Microsoft stock“. That’s a dumb comparison to compare a currency to an investment. The dollar has been mostly stable the past 10 years. A gallon of milk is still around $3.50
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by sunshinerag on Friday January 01, 2021 @11:56AM (#25604565)
why are you comparing a currency (bitcoin) to a stock.

USD vs Bitcoin is a comparison of currency.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by nwienert on Friday January 01, 2021 @07:34PM (#25608934)
Bitcoin is a security closer to gold than anything. Limited supply and high cost of production.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by wongarsu on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:43PM (#25598660)
The dollar also lost a lot of value when compared to the stock market, or compared to land prices, or to gold.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by zik on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:59PM (#25598806)
The value of cash dollars changes all the time. You just don't notice it because you pay for everything in the same dollar denomination. But when everything gets more expensive year by year that's your dollar devaluing. CPI is one measure of that.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by sunshinerag on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:26PM (#25598459)
Dollar is still the king of money laundering. Regulatory support, shoddy bank regulations makes it a smooth experience of money launderers and mafia with USD.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by pvg on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:41PM (#25599218)
Yes because the dollar is still the king of, well, money. All the Bitcoin fraud and money laundering ends up being dollar fraud and dollar money laundering, otherwise nobody would care.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by sollewitt on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:36PM (#25599162)
So even for one of the things Bitcoin is actually good for - moving money "surreptitiously" - it's less good at than real dollars?
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by phkahler on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:04PM (#25598248)
>> The point is that Bitcoin has introduced an actual "digital cash" currency without institutional/governmental middlemen.

The emergent cartel of miners becomes that.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by beaner on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:26PM (#25598451)
If you think this, you don't understand Bitcoin.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by xapata on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:34PM (#25598545)
Or maybe the other way around. Don't just assert. Explain.

From the article:

> The whole idea of proof-of-work mining is broken the instant hardware comes out which is specialized for mining and useless for general computation because at that point the need to have compute power for other purposes is absolutely irrelevant in having any effect on mining, and there ceases to be any force that causes mining to be distributed around the world. It becomes a "race to the bottom" to find where people can get the cheapest electricity, and then mining anywhere else - anywhere the government tries to make sure ordinary people actually get the benefit from electricity bought for tax money, for example - becomes first pointless, then a net loss.

It's the same story as some countries not having good quality coffee, avocados, quinoa, etc. because the export-quality goods are priced out of widespread domestic consumption.

With electricity production and distribution being a natural monopoly (and therefore typically regulated by the government), blockchain can't escape the realities of foreign exchange rates and government control.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by beaner on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:41PM (#25598633)
Miners have no ability to retract or redirect transactions. And to exclude them would require 100% collusion. Miners as "middlemen" doesn't make sense.

Edit: Your comment was edited after I made this one. I see no relation between the quote from the article and how miners are supposed to be middlemen.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by xapata on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:52PM (#25598743)
> collusion

It doesn't take 100% collusion, but certainly no more than 51%, and I've read speculation (though no proof) that less is sufficient.

> middlemen

A mining cartel can't edit a blockchain, but they can choose to accept a different blockchain, which is effectively the same thing. Do you accept the premise that a sufficiently large cartel can exist, by state intervention in the price of electricity?

[Apologies for the edits. I often find I dislike my first draft.]

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by beaner on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:00PM (#25598813)
It requires 100% because it only takes one miner to include the transaction for it to eventually be included.

Chain splits do not "edit" blockchains, they still require their own proof of work, and they cannot modify transactions, only drop them. Honest participants in a chain that is orphaned will not have had their money spent in the new chain, leaving it available to spend again. That's all that can be done. It requires a lot of work to be done once, let alone maintained over time on consecutive blocks, and in extremely short order the rewards sacrificed by fucking with the blockchain make continued attacks expensive to the degree that they'd be practically impossible.

People aren't thinking this through. The "race to the bottom" endgame is not that miners consolidate in one state with subsidized electricity, but that mining operations eventually power themselves off-grid through renewables, making distribution entirely detached from geography and jurisdiction.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by xapata on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:46PM (#25599273)
> continued attacks ... practically impossible

I agree that continued attacks makes a complicated situation, given the cartel participants would probably hold a significant amount of coin and would risk devaluing themselves against some other currency (though in the end-game scenario, what other currency matters?).

Let's imagine that the majority of domestic and international trade is conducted in Bitcoin, with maybe some alterations to the protocol to enable hundreds of thousands of transactions per second at essentially zero cost from the perspective of an individual actor (non-miner), even bursting up to tens of millions of transactions per second, somehow. Suppose then that two large governments, say the Unites States of America and the People's Republic of China, get into a little tiff about some boats hanging around the Taiwan Strait. Would these societies (in aggregate) prefer that their domestic and international trade be conducted in Bitcoin, or in a domestically-controlled currency?

A cartel could lock out a set of accounts from the Bitcoin network. Perhaps only temporarily, but long enough to have serious effects.

> power themselves off-grid through renewables

That'd be cool, but I doubt that off-grid will ever reach the efficiency and scale that on-grid will provide, due to fluctuations in the power sources and the economies of scale. It's hard to make a currency choice by betting on that technology, especially as the calculation could swap as the technology changes.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by PaulHoule on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:57PM (#25598789)
Bitcoin is the digital version of those huge coins people had on Easter Island. Had the Easter Islanders invented fractional reserve banking they might have taken over the world instead of England.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by xapata on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:33PM (#25598535)
Since Bitcoin transactions are enabled only by spending electricity, isn't the whole system dependent on utility companies, which are either in part or in whole extensions of the government?
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by gruez on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:37PM (#25598598)
If you want to be reductionist, you can argue that since almost all of the world's land, people, resources, and equipment are under the control of some government, it's hard for anything to be independent of them.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by xapata on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:39PM (#25598617)
I don't think that's reductionist. I think that's a reasonable statement. It is indeed hard for anything to be independent of government control, except perhaps in failed states. Which is sort-of the definition of a failed state.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by majewsky on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:28PM (#25599074)
Well, yeah. Why else would Elon want a Mars colony so badly?
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by zik on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:13PM (#25598921)
If electricity became less available the mining rate of Bitcoin would automatically adjust to the scarcity of available computation - it's not like there's a specified amount of electricity that has to be used per transaction.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by xapata on Thursday December 31, 2020 @08:01PM (#25599450)
It's less about steady-state global availability than burst capacity. What if the People's Liberation Army decides that temporary control of the Bitcoin network is a valuable capability?
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by oblio on Thursday December 31, 2020 @05:57PM (#25598185)
What's "digital cash" in this context? What does it offer extra compared to regular cash and online payments?
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by Anon1096 on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:05PM (#25598260)
Theoretically companies like Mindgeek who have been kicked off of the VISA/Mastercard duopoly, would be able to use Bitcoin as a censorship-resistant way to accept online payment. There's additional benefits as mentioned earlier like not needing to comply with KYC laws.

Of course, as Bitcoin currently stands, it's difficult for this to come to fruition because most holders are speculators rather than people interested in using it as currency.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by overscore on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:19PM (#25598389)
> There's additional benefits as mentioned earlier like not needing to comply with KYC laws.

Why would Bitcoin transactions be exempt from KYC?

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by Spoom on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:42PM (#25598655)
Because the fact that it's (in theory) anonymous means that most people think that it also cannot be regulated by laws. People just don't outright say that though because it might sound like enabling fraud, tax evasion, and other unsavory activities was the point.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by NovemberWhiskey on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:29PM (#25599084)
>like not needing to comply with KYC laws

You can also not comply with KYC laws in the traditional banking system; you're just going to get roflstomp'd by the financial authorities, c.f. $200mm fine for Deutsche Bank for insufficient AML/KYC controls in 2012-2015 time period.

Why would you imagine the result will be any different for crypto-banking? FinCEN is already promoting KYC for exchange-hosted wallets.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by oblio on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:37PM (#25598599)
> There's additional benefits as mentioned earlier like not needing to comply with KYC laws.

In many situations lack of KYC is a bug, not a feature.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by ur-whale on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:22PM (#25599016)
>In many situations lack of KYC is a bug, not a feature.

Some people seem to be actually believe that.

You just happen to be one of them.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by oblio on Friday January 01, 2021 @05:48PM (#25608085)
How do you track money laundering? Not everyone doing it is a virtuous rebel Fighing The Powah. A lot of them are just plain old crooks or other kinds of criminals.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by ur-whale on Saturday January 02, 2021 @10:08AM (#25613261)
> How do you track money laundering?

You don't.

Just like free speech, tracking what people do with their money is a violation of basic human rights.

Giving governments that kind of power is downright crazy.

If you want to catch criminals, resort to traditional ways.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by exclusiv on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:03PM (#25598243)
Exactly. And barring an unlikely collapse, cash/dollar isn't going to fluctuate much at all in value. So... a feature.

At this point, bitcoin is a competitor to gold as an asset store. Maybe it will be more like a currency at some point. But there's a long way to go and a lot of forces against it for that to occur.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by radiator on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:26PM (#25598452)
Just pointing out; there exist also those who consider the possibility of a collapse of cash/dollar more likely than your estimate.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by oblio on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:37PM (#25598592)
There exist those who predict the collapse of everything. That's not a valid answer.

Who are they? How many are they? What insight do they have that we don't have? Is this chance higher than the possibility of collapse for Bitcoin?

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by exclusiv on Thursday December 31, 2020 @08:35PM (#25599819)
Seriously. Will it do the equivalent of being ~20k then go to 3k. Then come back to 29k? Highly unlikely. As much as people want to predict a collapse, you can't store a ton of money safely outside of Treasuries.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by zik on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:07PM (#25598870)
With cash you can hand it to another person in payment. With conventional digital payments you request a trusted intermediary (your bank) to transfer that value to them. What if you don't trust banks but still want to be able to pay people?

Bitcoin was born in the Global Financial Crisis when the world was discovering the massive scam which the financial services industry had perpetrated, causing the whole problem. People wanted a way to do transactions without having to trust institutions which demonstrably couldn't be trusted. Hence Bitcoin which acts like digital cash with no trusted intermediary.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by hombre_fatal on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:02PM (#25598236)
Well, take the upsides of cash (e.g. don't need to open a bank, prove residence, etc.) and now add the ability to exchange it digitally without the pointless gatekeeping of large corporations like Paypal.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by rjurney on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:07PM (#25598278)
Who will be the largest Bitcoin vendor because they are trusted.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by seibelj on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:13PM (#25598344)
But they won’t be the only vendor. There is no license required that gives them a monopoly on bitcoin. If they serve a market segment, great! Others will use something else. Bitcoin is entirely open - it’s a protocol.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by rjurney on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:14PM (#25598931)
So is EDI used by banks with other currencies. I am old enough to have used it :)
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by hombre_fatal on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:15PM (#25598359)
That's fine. Bitcoin adoption by these institutions makes it easier for people to receive it who don't actually want to hold it.

Still, note that you don't need Paypal to move Bitcoin.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by adventured on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:27PM (#25599058)
Bitcoin isn't going to be a currency. It's a digital store of value. It will never be anything other than that. People may build new currencies on top of it in the near future. As the volatility fades from Bitcoin over time and it becomes extraordinarily boring (ie quite stable), some small nations will experiment with linking their fiat to Bitcoin for stability (seems laughable today, it won't be in a decade).
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by JacksonGariety on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:00PM (#25598210)
Don't all currencies work that way?
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by hombre_fatal on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:06PM (#25598272)
How do you send USD to someone digitally?
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by exclusiv on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:10PM (#25598322)
A lot of ways. And the banks reconcile the cash movement behind the scenes. As I understand it, in a simple example, if you send $1k to someone. And someone at their bank sends $1k to someone at your bank, there's nothing that the banks need to do other than record it.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by hombre_fatal on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:24PM (#25598426)
That you brought up banking is precisely my point. Imagine if you needed a bank account to give someone $100 cash. Or to spend a few bucks at a street hotdog vendor.

Most people take it for granted that they need a bank to do anything, and they don't really consider how powerless they are over their own money. Like how it's illegal to carry too much cash (and it can simply be taken away). And how your bank can impose arbitrary restrictions against you like rejecting transactions and freezing your account. I've lost various bank accounts over the years as a permanent traveler. I'm banned from Paypal.

I want to be able to send $100 cash digitally with the operational minimalism of giving someone $100 cash in person. I want some control over my money even when I want to exchange it digitally.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by exclusiv on Thursday December 31, 2020 @08:27PM (#25599741)
Understood that is a concern for you and some. I hope it gets there. But I'm not sure most people care.

Bitcoin isn't a currency yet. Most people can call up their credit card and get stuff blocked and returned instantly. Debit cards are definitely less of a service in that regard though and shouldn't be used like credit cards.

But the services are valued by most people.

As a currency, and as someone mentioned earlier - it's currently terrible due to it having an unstable valuation.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by literallycancer on Friday January 01, 2021 @08:13AM (#25603004)
Credit cards are debt instruments. Very easy to use of course, but having credit card UX isn't required to qualify as a currency. There were no credit cards 100 years ago. Many countries still rely exclusively on cash and debit cards.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by exclusiv on Monday January 04, 2021 @05:11PM (#25638965)
Agreed. My comment wasn't organized well and I can see that it linked the two statements, but I don't mean it like that.

I was referring to credit cards being a service that consumers value because they have fraud protection and other things. The parent was talking about arbitrary restrictions and freezing accounts. That typically happens when you have fraud on cash accounts (bank account, debit card, etc). And a credit card layer works extremely well.

I just had someone accidentally send me money on Venmo and I returned it to them right away. Cash or cash equivalent digital services are nice, but it limits "purchasing power" (great for consumers IMO, bad for merchants), has no rewards, and little to zero fraud protections.

Countries that use chip and pin on debit cards are definitely more secure. This should be in place in all countries. Fraud on a debit card is a nightmare. Fraud on a credit card is not usually a big deal for consumers.

Regardless of the various financial instruments, bitcoin cannot be a real currency when it's value is unstable.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by lottin on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:47PM (#25599291)
> Most people take it for granted that they need a bank to do anything, and they don't really consider how powerless they are over their own money

People use banks because they provide financial services. You don't have to use banks, if for some reason you want to avoid them, but then you're left without access to those services. As far as I know, Bitcoin doesn't provide financial services, so it's not a replacement for banking.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by literallycancer on Friday January 01, 2021 @08:21AM (#25603066)
Most banks provide most services at loss and make most of their money on mortgages. So they will provide payment services in the hope that 20 years later you get a mortgage from the bank you are familiar with.

Notice also that the whole business model relies on the bank having privileged access to central bank money and sharing that access with the plebs for some percentage interest. However current technology makes it feasible for central banks to simply interact with consumers directly. The only remaining problem is how to decide who is likely to pay back the loan. Retail banks could be relegated to credit check providers.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by viraptor on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:28PM (#25598481)
> Like how it's illegal to carry too much cash

Which country is that? It's not illegal anywhere I know of.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by gruez on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:40PM (#25598618)
He's probably talking about the horror stories of people getting their cash/assets seized via civil forfeiture. eg. https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2018/09/01/police-seiz...
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by viraptor on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:44PM (#25598667)
Yeah, that's different from carrying cash being illegal.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by cryptochamorro on Thursday December 31, 2020 @09:04PM (#25600053)
It makes it illegal in practice, just not in name.

Are you really free if you have any arbitrarily defined “large” amount of money, only to have it sorted and it become YOUR burden of proof to show the origins of the cash?

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by zik on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:17PM (#25598963)
Cash transactions over 10,000 lakh are illegal in India [1]. Spain, France and Greece have all recently introduced limits [2]. Germany [3] has tried to introduce similar limits but have failed (so far). Australia's introducing a limit soon [4].

[1] https://babatax.com/cash-transaction-limit-in-india-cash-pay...

[2] https://wolfstreet.com/2017/01/28/europe-limits-on-cash-tran...

[3] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/08/german-plan-pr...

[4] https://www.accountantsdaily.com.au/business/14087-governmen...

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by viraptor on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:35PM (#25599143)
Sure, there are limits of non-tax-traceable payments in a few places. The part that surprised me was literally "carry too much cash" which is not quite the same thing.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by alerighi on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:13PM (#25598924)
In my country (Italy) is kind of illegal. I mean, not carrying too much cash (but of course if they find you with a suitcase full of cash, they will ask you where you got all that cash from), but you can't pay in a shop more than 2.000 euros (and they will lower this limit to 1.000 and possibly less in the future). Also you can't pay your employee cash, you have to pay in traceable manners something that you want to deduct from taxes like medical expenses, and so on.

Transaction with cash between private citizens are permitted tough (like buying a used car in cash), but it's not a good idea to do so if you don't trust the other party (because then how can I prove that I gave you the money?)

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by umeshunni on Thursday December 31, 2020 @11:06PM (#25600755)
Using one of the 100s of services, apps and websites that exist.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by amelius on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:29PM (#25599083)
You missed the last part of TFA:

> The more scalable the network becomes, the more centralized it becomes, until ultimately a "scalable" cryptocurrency would be doing things exactly the same way as a credit card processor.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by chemmail on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:23PM (#25598424)
That is a good way of thinking about it. "The Internet of Money" is a very good way of labeling it. The internet protocols itself and it's openess are very foundational like bitcoin. Everything we use today is built on top of that. BTC is really just the brand right now. Moving forward we will see if BTC is Yahoo/Myspace and who will be the Google/Amazon of this new sector.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by vulturalcptlst on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:37PM (#25598601)
No, this is the incorrect way of thinking of it.

It's more like TCP/IP than businesses built on top of the protocol.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by IfOnlyYouKnew on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:42PM (#25598652)
I prefer "The US dollar without democratic institutions"
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by idlewords on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:09PM (#25598313)
Every Bitcoin transaction is crawling with industrial and governmental middlemen, often with the latter trying to arrest the former for stealing all your money.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by Glyptodon on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:02PM (#25598235)
Ah, yes, physical currency doesn't have institutional/governmental middlemen because private regulated banks aren't the government. /s
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by hombre_fatal on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:07PM (#25598284)
Try to make a concrete point without encumbering it with sarcasm. I don't want to guess at what you mean and then have a meta discussion over whether I correctly interpreted your point.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by sunshinerag on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:25PM (#25598441)
Amen
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by mrjin on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:28PM (#25598480)
Well, obviously the designer of bitcoin or any so called cryptos did not take a serious thought why centralized financial authorities are there. They believed books kept by those financial authorities are the real problems and thus they made the books public and introduced the mining process. The real problems have never been about records, they are really about the integrity of the transactions, which in turn pointing to the trustworthiness of the counterpart. By making books public can never ever resolve those trustworthiness issue and actually introduced more problems such as everyone is storing heaps of info which does not concern them at all, 51% attack etc. To establish trust between parties in the transactions, as you mentioned, market-makers, exchanges etc came into play, which defeats the purpose: to decentralize by introducing other centralized authorities which are actually less trustworthy than current ones. In other words, catch-22.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by duxup on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:47PM (#25598694)
Bitcoin has done a great job educating me as to why we have the rules we have regarding financial orgs, and currency.

Every new scam or venture that runs into regulatory issues is a fascinating trip that often results in "well yeah that's a terrible idea..."

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by tyre on Thursday December 31, 2020 @05:49PM (#25598090)
Your inalterable blockchain either dies young or lives long enough to see a hard fork.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by smabie on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:03PM (#25598244)
I agree with you mostly, but market makers on exchanges are not middle-men, they are simply market participants like any other. Conceptually, there's no difference between a professional market maker and a individual who puts a limit order on the book.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by clemens2000 on Thursday December 31, 2020 @08:04PM (#25599493)
The problem is not with Bitcoin. The problem is the 1mb block size cap. The block size cap restricts the number of transactions that can be processed in a block. It's an artificial restriction of supply. When demand increases the price (tx fee) goes (way) up.

There is some magical thinking within the Bitcoin community that only a fixed block size will prevent centralization. I have never heard a solid argument to back that up. Everything in technology is growing exponentially (cpu power, network throughput, disc space). So in relative terms the block size is decreasing exponentially. Technically Bitcoin mining should get exponentially more decentralized. This is not happening.

If we let the block size grow at the same rate as the surrounding tech, or at least at some rate, the supply problem would go away. The transaction fee would go down and we would not need to use flaky and centralizing tech like the lightning network that mimics the financial system that we wanted to escape.

For a long time this was a theory. However several forks of Bitcoin have tried it in practice (eg BCH, LTC, BSV). Over several years these experiments have shown that if you stop restricting the block size you get a system that is dependable, cheap to use, and scalable.

My wish for 2021 is for people in Bitcoin to reconsider if they have made a mistake in restricting the blockchain. I hope they will have the courage to change their minds in light of data.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by darawk on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:07PM (#25598868)
This isn't a very good criticism. Lots of new things recapitulate the structures they are replacing in many ways, while improving on them in just one or a few areas. The fact that ground is being retread is not itself a criticism or a sign of a lack of innovation.

Yes, Bitcoin requires many of the same structures as traditional finance. That does not make them equivalent. Traditional finance does not allow you sovereignty over your money. Bitcoin has central custody, sure. But it's opt in. That's what makes it different. You may or may not care about this property, but its undeniable that it's novel in the digital realm, and empirically many people do care about it.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by ineedasername on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:25PM (#25599038)
It's not that the structures are inherently bad, it's that such structures are, philosophically, the exact sorts of things that many early (and current) proponents of crypto wanted to avoid. In that sense bitcoin hasn't failed as a system in & of itself, but it has failed to achieve the philosophical goals of those people.

Bitcoin & crypto also might not be sovereign in origin but they have plenty of sovereign influence, basically as much as any sovereignty wants to impose on it. Especially as entities like the SEC & IRS come to terms with it, it will be just as vulnerable to government control as fiat currency. This is especially the case because any wide-spread adoption will require adoption by large financial institutions, which cannot avoid regulatory regimes of their local jurisdictions. From the US government's standpoint, US citizens holding bitcoins is not much different than US citizens holding Euros. How that money enters into the US economy & interacts with US financial institutions or changes hands from person to person are basically subject to the same rules & regulations. If you're conducting a a transaction in excess of $10,000 then whatever mechanism facilitates that will still be subject to CTR's, and any "suspicious" transaction of lower limits will still be reported, by law, to the government.

Basically, if you want to convert bitcoin to the local currency to buy something, you'll need to use some sort of off-ramp that will be a regulatory bottleneck. Want to build a "shadow" economy purely driven by crypto exchange? Well, you'll still have to deal with the IRS knocking on your door & saying "You have things of value that you are performing work to receive. We don't care what currency or form you received them in, you received things of value. Give us our cut."

In short, it doesn't matter that it wasn't created by a sovereign authority: The control a sovereign authority can exert over it is, contrary to many of the most philosophical hopes for crypto, indistinguishable from sovereign currency in everything but name & source of origin.

Let me be clear though: I'm not anti-crypto. I'm probably a little ambivalent, and a little optimistic that it might replace high-friction mechanisms that exist in current financial infrastructure. What I do believe is that crypto cannot both go mainstream and fulfill the philosophical hopes that many had wanted for it.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by darawk on Friday January 01, 2021 @01:49AM (#25601402)
> It's not that the structures are inherently bad, it's that such structures are, philosophically, the exact sorts of things that many early (and current) proponents of crypto wanted to avoid. In that sense bitcoin hasn't failed as a system in & of itself, but it has failed to achieve the philosophical goals of those people.

I'm not sure that's quite true. Decentralization was a goal, but it wasn't necessarily the case that that decentralization had to pervade all use of the currency. The values of the ecosystem are that more decentralization is better - that's true, so Satoshi et al would have preferred to make decentralized transactions sufficiently scalable not to require centralized exchanges, but I don't think that it has fundamentally failed in its goals just because a lot of transactions happen in bank-like entities. The point is that users have the power to do it in a decentralized way.

> Bitcoin & crypto also might not be sovereign in origin but they have plenty of sovereign influence, basically as much as any sovereignty wants to impose on it. Especially as entities like the SEC & IRS come to terms with it, it will be just as vulnerable to government control as fiat currency. This is especially the case because any wide-spread adoption will require adoption by large financial institutions, which cannot avoid regulatory regimes of their local jurisdictions. From the US government's standpoint, US citizens holding bitcoins is not much different than US citizens holding Euros. How that money enters into the US economy & interacts with US financial institutions or changes hands from person to person are basically subject to the same rules & regulations. If you're conducting a a transaction in excess of $10,000 then whatever mechanism facilitates that will still be subject to CTR's, and any "suspicious" transaction of lower limits will still be reported, by law, to the government.

This just isn't accurate. It may in fact be vulnerable to some level of government influence, due to the fiat gateways involved. But it's just not true that it's equivalent to fiat in that regard. Cryptocurrencies will never be as regulable as fiat is, and I think it's pretty clear that that's true, given how widely they've been adopted by cyber criminals and darknet markets. Governments have been completely unable to prevent their use in this way, and will continue to be unable to do so.

It's true from a legal perspective that the government views it just like foreign currency (actually, in the US, they treat it like property, not currency, but we can ignore that for now). But from a technical perspective, its very very different. The technical differences make it very difficult to regulate. Think about music. When music got digitized, its legal status didn't change. It was just as illegal to download an MP3 as it was to steal a CD. What changed is the topology of the technical landscape underneath it, and that is what made all the difference.

> Basically, if you want to convert bitcoin to the local currency to buy something, you'll need to use some sort of off-ramp that will be a regulatory bottleneck. Want to build a "shadow" economy purely driven by crypto exchange? Well, you'll still have to deal with the IRS knocking on your door & saying "You have things of value that you are performing work to receive. We don't care what currency or form you received them in, you received things of value. Give us our cut."

I think you are under-weighting the significance of friction. In principle, sure, the IRS might do that - but we don't live in principle. We live in a physical world with resource constraints. If you make something harder to accomplish, it may no longer be economical to do it. Collecting income taxes from people that keep their money in crypto who don't want to pay them will never be as efficient as doing so in the fiat banking system.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by lottin on Thursday December 31, 2020 @08:03PM (#25599472)
> Traditional finance does not allow you sovereignty over your money.

What do you mean sovereignty? Do you mean property? Traditional finance is not only compatible with the ownership of money, it relies entirely on it!

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by darawk on Friday January 01, 2021 @01:51AM (#25601414)
I mean sovereignty in the sense of actual control. When you put your money in a bank account, you give up control of it to that bank. The money may legally be yours, but they physically possess it, and can keep you from transacting with it whenever they wish. I in fact just had this issue the other day. I have a company, and due to a clerical error with the state its registered in, my company was listed as being "not in good standing", and because of this, Wells Fargo froze my accounts and wouldn't let me transact for two weeks until I got the whole thing cleared up. That could never happen with a crypto wallet, because I have actual sovereignty over my crypto wallets, nobody can freeze them for any reason.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by lottin on Friday January 01, 2021 @03:42AM (#25601786)
Ok, that's not sovereignty. Sovereignty refers to the highest authority in a territory. Yes, in traditional banking, customers cede control of the money they deposit with the bank to the bank. They do not cede the ownership of that money, which they continue to own. Now, transferring money without making a deposit is possible with any currency, not just BTC. You make it sound like it's a feature of BTC but it's not. It's a feature of the financial industry, whether it provides this particular service.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by darawk on Friday January 01, 2021 @01:56PM (#25605644)
Highest authority means actual physical control. When your money is in a bank, the highest authority is the bank. Not you. This is the literal definition of sovereignty, and it's used in many digital contexts, not just crypto. E.g. 'self-sovereign identity'. This isn't a word usage made up by crypto, it's quite common, and this is its meaning.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by lottin on Saturday January 02, 2021 @06:04AM (#25611955)
Possession and ownership are two very different things. Physical control can be transferred without loss of ownership. This is what happens when somebody rents a car, or when somebody deposits money with a bank. Sovereignty is a concept very specific to political science. It doesn't make a lot of sense to use it in other contexts. You can use it, if you want, but it's usually a sign that the person using it doesn't really know what they're talking about.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by darawk on Sunday January 03, 2021 @01:50PM (#25623983)
Or maybe it's that you don't really know what you're talking about. People have been using the term in this way for quite a while, and it isn't specific to crypto. It also comports just fine with the dictionary definition. So it seems to me that it's you who's definition is idiosyncratic. But the meanings of words are beside the point. Sovereignty in this sense is a property crypto has that other financial assets do not, whatever word you want to use for it.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by louwrentius on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:36PM (#25598576)
Yes, I see the irony.

So much talk about the benefit of crypto currencies seems - in my eyes at least - based on a fundamental misunderstanding of how societies work.

And most of all: you can’t replace trust with tech.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by xapata on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:02PM (#25598826)
> fundamental understanding

From the tone of your statement, I think you meant mis-understanding. I'll add also a misunderstanding of macroeconomics and a rejection of empiricism. The cryptocurrency folks read a bit too much of von Mises.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by louwrentius on Thursday December 31, 2020 @08:58PM (#25600000)
Yes, sorry.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by TeMPOraL on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:08PM (#25598880)
> And most of all: you can’t replace trust with tech.

I'd say, you can (Bitcoin is one of many recent exercises of replacing trust with math). But it's not worth the price. Or, put another way, trust is a ridiculously powerful optimization that enabled humanity to form societies in the first place. It's very similar to how introducing a central node into a network reduces communication costs from O(n^2) to O(n). In the general case, it's stupid to not take advantage of it.

I consider Bitcoin to be the closest we've came so far to expressing trust in units of energy. POW shows us how much computation has to happen to achieve mathematical guarantees in lieu of trust. Somebody could probably derive some upper and lower bounds on the energy costs of trust in terms of information theory. I'd love to read such a paper.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by briatx on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:48PM (#25599304)
Bitcoin doesn't solve any trust problem outside of how many bitcoins are in each wallet.

Even in the very basic ecommerce use case: buyer purchases item online with bitcoin. The buyer must necessarily trust the vendor to deliver.

There's no recourse outside of the good graces of the vendor. There's no chargebacks or third party mediation.

Thus Bitcoin actually reverses the risk assumed by online purchases from the vendor to the buyer.

This is the reason why Bitcoin is a failure outside of niche grey and black market concerns. It is far worse for the consumer than existing solutions that isolate them from transaction risk, and will usually kick back a small percentage in cash back.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by harwoodleon on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:32PM (#25599111)
There’s a problem with this argument.

The middlemen are being created again yes, but they are being replaced with mostly open-sourced software solutions like smart contacts and auditable ledgers. Bitcoin started the party, but the other projects are now finding their feet with technology that uses open consensus as the basis for open, functional, opt-in systems.

Look at Gitcoin, this would not have been possible without the Bitcoin project gaining traction.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by stjohnswarts on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:21PM (#25599003)
But in bitcoin they aren't mandatory and there are essentially no borders. I'm not a fan of it personally but you can cut out the middlemen if you like. As to if that will be the case in the future as more and more regulations (and criminal precedents are set) are added on then it because much murkier.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by echelon on Thursday December 31, 2020 @07:02PM (#25598824)
> re-invent every last feature of the banks they thought they were going to be escaping.

> centralized mining activity in a country where centralization means it's effectively owned by exactly the kind of government most people thought they DIDN'T want looking up their butts and where the people who that government allows to "own" this whole business work together as a cartel.

It looks to me like an attack on the reserve currency status of the USD. It's not a sure bet, but China is willing to tolerate it in the event it succeeds. Chins holds the mining power, so they effectively win if Bitcoin takes over. It's easy for them to clamp down and control.

> This is a pretty funny point because every time I go on twitter and see people talk about crypto, what they're essentially having is a discussion about public policy, and often they seem to try to reinvent institutions that already exist

The Bitcoin early adopters want to replace the incumbent systems with their own so that they can enrich themselves.

Now that Bitcoin has had time to play out, it feels like an attack on USD with way too many downsides.

Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by jbob2000 on Thursday December 31, 2020 @05:54PM (#25598150)
It’s like refactoring a codebase without understanding the problems behind the current implementation, and then acting surprised when the code is just as ugly.
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by idclip on Thursday December 31, 2020 @05:51PM (#25598109)
Ironic isnt it
Re:Bitcoin is a disaster by option on Thursday December 31, 2020 @06:05PM (#25598262)
nothing wrong with reinventing the old stuff as long as the new ones are better.