Jeez, this again.
What is it about we tech folk that allows a little aptitude to let our ego get so far out of whack?
I'm not that special. You're not that special. Your weapon engineer is not that special.
There's a bunch of guys and gals in Hong Kong/Canada/Iceland/wherever who are just as capable of doing the same job without intercontinental commuting.
As others have said, the Internet exists, which mitigates the need for international travel like you've suggested anyway (which is absurd, not least for the environmental damage this implies).
"Tesla won in cars and SpaceX won in rockets"
I'm a fan, but this very much remains to be seen.
There are a few target markets that are special. Celebs are each unique, their earning power is tied to this uniqueness. Such an aircraft is great if you want to film in the UK but spend your weekends in NY. Much of Concorde's passenger base fit this profile.
Then there are the truly wealthy. There might actually be an environmental argument for them to use this aircraft. Compare it against the carbon footprint of someone flying on Emirates in that airborne apartment they sell on the A380. I'd bet that a semi-normal seat on this rocket will be less carbon intensive than one of those giant first class seats on a slower aircraft. Maybe a few people opting for a less-opulent but far faster option might actually reduce net carbon emissions.
it's startup culture nonsense
Lets enjoy laughing at them after they fail, rather than before.
"Lets enjoy laughing at them after they fail, rather than before"
Suggesting someone apply a little humility to their worldview is a pretty far cry from laughing at them for having goals.
I also don't know why you would laugh at someone for failing, it seems a bit harsh.
And until we can manifest fundamentally different technology for air travel we should collectively and rapidly scale down our dependence on long distance commute.
Fossil fuel driven flight is not viable in a sustainable future. We need to understand this.
But it's the reality. Electrification of individual ground transportation, and the phasing out of gasoline cars, is absolutely inevitable over the next 20 years. But jet fuel isn't going anywhere for a long, long time. It's just a matter of physics. It's foreseeable to have small scale electrified commuter aircraft shuttling people within 400 miles. But any type of long haul flight will be done with turbine engines burning kerosene. Even with a 10x increase in energy density for LiPo batteries, we still wouldn't be there.
I'm kinda surprised to see this kind of hostility. Same thing happens when nuclear is suggested even though the IPCC HIGHLY advocates its use. It is all about relative impact. Part of the problem with resolving climate change is that even the people who acknowledge it fight among themselves and don't push for both current technologies (which includes nuclear) and research for new technologies (fusion, batteries, and better solar/hydro/wind). We need to just listen to what the experts say, not what you read in some blog post or HN comment.
> Same thing happens when nuclear is suggested
It's not the "same thing". Nuclear has some sustainability benefits. Bringing back commercial hypersonic air travel seems to have no such benefits.
Air travel is low now only because it's expensive. People world gladly take many, many more flights if they were cheaper.
Of course if we taxed carbon this problem would go away, and taxing international flights would probably be easier than a general carbon tax, if flights were all that was left.
Just the same way the expertise of the most-brilliant central planners in the USSR and elsewhere allocated resources.
It doesn't work. There's a better way which is also consistent with democracy and individual choice. But people don't like the sound of it.
You mean putting a price tag on emissions I assume?
It's inferior in econonic efficiency and comprehensive coverage to a carbon tax.
And if implemented incorrectly, it becomes corporate welfare, and this has already happened. It has potential to be just another corporatist-cronyist scheme at taxpayer's expense.
And to date government and bureaucracy have been pretty horrible about solving climate change.
Carbon tax is a simple, elegant, efficient, effective solution. Most people just dont like the sound of it though.
How would you solve the trade component though? Because carbon production would just shift elsewhere unless:
* there was an international treaty where states each agreed to raise carbon taxes and cut other taxes or do a dividend, or
* import tariffs were levied in proportion to the carbon used in imports from countries that didn't have a similar tax
The latter would demand a large bureaucracy and have a lot of distortions.
I realized recently that a carbon tax isn't like an income tax. An income tax only occurs on profits, whereas a carbon tax is an input tax. This makes the jurisdiction shifting problem more acute.
A carbon tax is still my preferred solution, but was wondering if you had any ideas on how to get around this.
What I know is that many other industries deal with somethint like this. Not just taxes, but costly regulation hurts domestic production. For example, countries which do not respect responsible fishing practices have a competitive advantage.
Part of the answer can be: just dont let those countries sell fish within the US. Others can be international treatise or laws.
If I were king, I'd need to spend more time to consider my options, but I guess a treatise is in order. I dont see how any climate change action within the US's 350M population will do anything meaningful to solve the problem if the other 6.5Billion are not cooperating.
Except for the fact that markets are a great way to manage rivalrous goods, dynamically balance economic need against cost without the need for a centralized authority to have high-touch meddling (which presents a corruption danger), oh and most importantly, ad I said, they work, empirically, as with the United States SOX and NOX markets
My issue was with the parent comment essentially suggesting that you can justify boosting emissions from flight travel because we still rely on fossil fuels, so might as well double down. Nobody was suggesting that we immediately cease all flight travel. I’m open to the possibility that supersonic travel is a net positive, but the argument needs to be around what we’re getting in return for the emissions and why that’s worth it.
People saying supersonic travel is a step in the wrong direction are listening to experts who agree that our use of fossil fuels is a threat to humanity and the environment. And what about when experts disagree? There has to be some level of independent thought to parse and apply what experts are putting forward.
Because there isn't any. None. Zero. Why would you be aware of people worrying about something that currently doesn't exist?
I'm not sure how to break this to you, but scientists are generally aware about up and coming technologies. And we do think about potential future impact.
So let me rephrase
>>I'm not aware of climate scientists actually caring about potential future implementations of supersonic travel.
It's decades old, and it's failed for economic reasons.
Climate scientists worrying about the impacts of supersonic flight would be like Ornithologists looking to spot dinosaurs in the wild.
Sure perhaps we shouldn't be using the internet. Or perhaps we should do a lot more to make sure that the energy used for powering the internet is sustainable.
But our deficiency in that area doesn't make this activity any better.
But that’s with current aircraft supper sonic is less efficient and enables longer flights having a very outsized impact for minimal gain. You can both sleep and use high speed internet from modern jets, going 2-3x as fast adds little productivity.
On top of that emerging markets are just as happy to start flying as start driving which is pushing up flying’s impact every year.
Speak for yourself — I can't sleep on planes. Nor is airplane internet anything close to high speed by any standard. It's expensive as hell and doesn't exist over oceans. At the same ticket price, for long-haul international, I'd greatly prefer an economy-sized seat in a 2.5x shorter flight to a biz-class seat in a traditional flight.
As to internet over the ocean, Gogo has quality high speed internet via satellite. If you have not flown on one of these flights or a competent competitor you will notice a real difference.
*At least until a large number of aircraft are in service. Airlines make the most money per square foot with business class, but first class is still a critical revenue stream. Free up first class space via these and run fewer large aircraft with a higher percentage of business class is going to be most efficient. This also means you end up with either fewer economy seats or more expensive ones as currently first class and business class subsidizes economy.
Never went anywhere then but I'd be interested to see whether modern tech could make it feasible.
Also should the plane have an accident you now have radioactive material spread over miles. Which is also not an easily solved problem.
Can you elaborate on what specifically about landing causes that?
Eventually we can move to produced carbon based fuel but that will take a while.
Until then, the old green idea of 'lets just not do it' is simply not viable to reduce carbon usage.
I don't see why this is any less viable than the other alternatives. It's the only option that we've already tried. Before invention of air travel.
I mean of course I see that people don't change. But that's the very thing we absolutely need to fix. We have to stay within our means. Not doing the thing that brings cost seems like a simple enough solution.
I think a large carbon tax is the only shot of getting everyone on track with reducing impact.
I'd be willing to take a slower option and I think at least some others would too as long as it's less cramped.
- You spend a lot (would estimate 30%+) of time waiting on sidings for freight trains to pass in the other direction because there's only a single track owned by the freight company, so their trains get priority.
- There's no back up plan, and only a few trips a week. Our train happened to run on time, but I had a family member try to take it a few years later and ended up having to cancel for refund and fly instead because the train was running 24h late and she needed to be home for something.
- It's priced and advertised as an "experience" comparable to going on a cruise. They serve you nice food, but obviously the cost of all that service is baked into the ticket— no one is pretending that you'd choose this option just to get to your destination.
- We got our fares for around 60% off, but it was still $450 per adult, I think, which was a lot more than our return flights were (we could afford neither the time nor money required to take the train in both directions). Getting these fares required weeks of monitoring for VIA's "discount Tuesday" promotions and then building our travel plans around the specific dates offered.
- No wifi or even cell reception for most of the route. The northern Ontario section of the route is extremely remote and not at all scenic— just mile after mile of unremarkable forest.
Maybe there's room for an option that's slightly more comfortable and slightly slower, if that's what an airship would offer? But as far as the train goes, it's lots more comfortable and many times slower, but there's just no way to make the cost comparable to flying when you need to pay for all those hours of staff and equipment.
Edit: Why are people downvoting this? I just googled it and confirmed what I posted here.
For comparison, a single 40' standard container has a maximum load of 57,000lbs, and a large cargo ship can carry thousands of those.
Alternatively, an airship of the same mass of the Hindenburg could be made significantly larger, and since payload scales with the lifting gas volume, payload would also increase.
Oh, and throw the Hindenburg's aluminum piano over the side.
I note with interest that you say the Hindenburg would have had a greater payload with Helium rather than Hydrogen. Why do you say that?
I did not say that. Note the negative.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg-class_airship#Lift_...
The article goes on to say the difference in lift between hydrogen and helium is only 8%.
Edit: drop the apostrophe on zeppelins
I understand that subsidies currently create perverse incentives in that industry, but I struggle to see why bioengineered carbon-neutral jet fuel is fundamentally not viable. That thinking seems very closed-minded.
Biofuels doesn't necessarily mean subsidized corn fields... for example, algae and bacteria grown under specialized LEDs powered by renewable energy are another path forward.
Perfect is the enemy of the good. We can research supersonic jets in addition to better electric storage and propulsion systems.
In theory, you can power a big car on responsibly sourced fuel. In reality, selling millions of big cars is a huge problem, because of course people will understandably put in the cheap, ubiquitous fuel for which they're not covering externalities.
This saying is not suitable here because unsustainable technology isn't good. It's simply not worth the cost and we are borrowing from the future.
If the venture would be unprofitable up until the point when it would be sustainable would we still push money into it?
I say we should treat any venture that is unsustainable the same way we treat those that are unprofitable. But we don't. We allow unsustainable ventures to carry on without ever becoming sustainable. Which means that it is constantly borrowing (stealing) means from everyone else.
It sounds very sci fi and I'm not sure it would even work on a napkin calculation produced by a thermodynamics professor.
Downsides include:
1. It's only neutral. It doesn't remove gases we've already released.
2. The process is almost certainly extremely expensive. Until something like emissions taxes are levied, it will not be a competitive fuel.
When it became clear that there was absolutely no way this could work for more than a token number of flights without absolutely devastating consequences to the planet we live on.
Bad example.
What is the environmental impact of "regularly" commuting on an intercontinental supersonic jet, compared to simply using video conferencing?
Humanity doesn't need a new Concorde. The only real upside I could possibly see is faster transport for organ transplants, and how often is that actually going to happen?
For any serious discussions, video conferencing is a garbage replacement for in-person meetings. If anything, the latter is becoming more impactful as lower-level functions get clearly displaced to the former. As others have mentioned, jet fuel doesn’t have to be carbon additive.
I think you have a typo - you don’t need a new Concorde.
Flying faster doesn't reduce the effects of jet lag.
That was one part of their strategy, but the ultimate goal was always to make it cheaper through reuse and not through cheaper production.
> It didn’t try to fight fundamental physics.
Tell that to all the people who claimed that the way SpaceX does the landing of their rockets would never work out because of the "fuel economics", "the way the engine is designed", etc..
Before SpaceX actually achieved it, there were a lot of people out there who doubted that their approach is feasible.
That's quite a revisionist characterization of SpaceX's 15-year toil, which many had described as impossible. Elon Musk said it best in March 2017 [0][1] when they achieved the revolutionary feat of successfully landing a reused rocket:
“It’s the difference between having airplanes that you threw away after every flight, verses reusing them multiple times."
“It’s been 15 years to get to this point, I’m sort of at a loss for words. This is a great day, not just for SpaceX but for the space industry as a whole, in proving that something could be done that many people said was impossible.”
I certainly wouldn't call something that had never been done before by anyone a well-understood technology.
> And there hasn’t been fundamental changes in the physics since those prior efforts. It’s a different bet.
You may be correct on the physics, but you are ignoring other dimensions that could make this endeavor feasible. The first Concorde flew 50 years ago. Our understanding of CFD, materials science, manufacturing techniques etc has progressed significantly from what they were 50 years ago.
[0]: https://www.recode.net/2017/3/30/15131514/spacex-space-histo...
[1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1800&v=xsZSXav4w...
Boom is certainly an extremely risky startup (as was SpaceX)... but isn't that what venture capital is for?
https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/Pages/A39_CORS...
Since at least 2007. I'm sure we all remember the warm reception the Dropbox Show HN[0] got?
s/laughed/jeered/
I guess I'm trying to justify my reaction to Dropbox. Frankly, I still don't understand why Dropbox turned down acquisition offer from Apple. I still don't get it.
I don't remember laughing at Dropbox though. It was more bewilderment than anything.
More importantly though, who is Fulton?
Is it the everyman's plane? Certainly not. But it essentially makes living in Tokyo/Hong Kong/Singapore/Sydney and working in SF much closer to living in New York and working in SF (which a lot of senior executives and investors do). Imagine if Australia East Coast was a 6hr flight and 5hr time difference to SF. New York is a 6hr flight and a 3hr time difference to SF. Seems a lot different all of a sudden doesn't it?
Focussing on gas is the complete wrong way of looking at this. Humans and our ideas are the ultimate resource, not gas. When we work together we solve problems, and the weapon engineer who had to relocate back to HK to raise kids near family can often be the difference between a breakthrough we all benefit from and nothing at all. Having these senior people able to work locally can enable them to seed their hometowns with thriving local offices that train new generations of talent.
Tesla won in cars and SpaceX won in rockets (both very complex industries) over very well established incumbents. Don't underestimate how much organizational dynamics can weigh on a company. Do you think the best people at Boeing are going to risk the next decade of their career working on a plane that might only do 300 orders when they could go get easy promotion working on the next 787?
Good luck to the team at Boom!!