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Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by hourago on Monday January 23, 2023 @05:27AM (#34487245)
> I argue that Japan is a harbinger state, which experiences many challenges before others in the international system.

A good example is housing. Japan had a gigantic housing bubble a decade in advance than the USA and Europe. It is also interesting to see that meanwhile declining population has not reduced price of houses in the city, it has made many town houses almost free. I would expect this to be replicated elsewhere.

Another interesting one is technology. Japan got trapped in the 90s, the fax era, and it is difficult to change. Will also the USA and Europe get stuck technologically as the population grows older? Again, it is to be expected.

Japan is not the world, but it seems reasonable that can give a heads up for many problems that other places will experience in the future.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by tjpnz on Monday January 23, 2023 @05:39AM (#34487331)
>Another interesting one is technology. Japan got trapped in the 90s, the fax era, and it is difficult to change. Will also the USA and Europe get stuck technologically as the population grows older? Again, it is to be expected.

I've lived in Japan for eight years and the only time I've ever been asked to fax something was by an American company. I told them no.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by pigsty on Monday January 23, 2023 @06:01AM (#34487441)
I recently (months ago)left a company where everything was faxed. All records were typed on computers, printed, and faxed to companies. Orders as well.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by LeanderK on Monday January 23, 2023 @06:08AM (#34487489)
japan, us or somewhere else?
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by anigbrowl on Monday January 23, 2023 @03:05PM (#34494212)
printed, and faxed

Perplexed that they weren't faxed directly from computers. Are the records not considered 'real' until they exist in paper form, for which there are well-established storage/ retrieval/ relocation standards?

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by freetime2 on Monday January 23, 2023 @06:20AM (#34487564)
A few months ago when applying for internet service from NTT they required me to fax a copy of my residence card. I ended up going with KDDI (for that and other reasons).
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by ne0flex on Monday January 23, 2023 @06:25AM (#34487602)
I work for a Japanese bank in NYC. Up until COVID, when we had documents that had to be signed by the Tokyo team, we'd overnight it to them via DHL.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by pezezin on Monday January 23, 2023 @07:30AM (#34488040)
I've only had to sent two faxes in my whole life, and both have been in the last four years while living in Japan. One was for Amazon, and the other for the Sapporo police.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by aikinai on Monday January 23, 2023 @07:52AM (#34488182)
It’s not imposed on consumers as much anymore, but in business, it’s still huge. There are plenty of articles about it even locally in Japanese.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by formerly_proven on Monday January 23, 2023 @06:20AM (#34487567)
Situation in Germany: Housing prices are going down the last few months, but much more slowly than they consistently rose during the preceding 15 years. At the same time interest has sharply risen. Compared to prices there's a much bigger decrease in new construction, which I'd interpret as people increasingly not pursuing houses and instead piling onto the rent market. Urban/suburban/"sprawl" houses were basically a DI(preferably-NK-and-wealthy-parents-chipping-in) and beyond thing before, I'd suspect houses will continue to shrink while drifting even further up the income distribution and everyone else must rent for life - at an average rent/income ratio of around one third which has only ever been going up, and is of course much higher for non-DI households. Home ownership rate has always been falling and continues to do so (fell below 50 % in 2022). It'll get a lot lower when boomers start leaving their houses (feet first most likely), because baby boomers have far high home ownership rate than following generations. And with recent changes to the way houses are legally valuated and inheritance taxation I'd suspect many kids of baby boomers can't actually afford to inherit their parents houses and will have to sell.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by MarkPNeyer on Monday January 23, 2023 @06:54AM (#34487791)
Hi, thanks for sharing - do you mind explaining what DI and NK mean?

Thank you :)

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by TacticalCoder on Monday January 23, 2023 @06:58AM (#34487815)
DINK means "Double Income No Kids".
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by Terretta on Monday January 23, 2023 @06:58AM (#34487813)
DINK == Dual Income No Kids
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by dzonga on Monday January 23, 2023 @07:04AM (#34487857)
I think for you - Germany might be an anomaly since in Germany you guys have strong rental protections. and rentals can have long leases i.e 3+ years. whereas in the UK / US a lease usually last a year. in london with average leases being 6 months to a year.

in the UK new builds are inflated due to gvt shenanigans

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by formerly_proven on Monday January 23, 2023 @07:36AM (#34488086)
That's true, though the only protection for new tenants is rent control (the type where rents can't exceed a reference rent by ~10%), which is active in most cities - but is also generally ignored (~80 % of new leases violate these laws). New construction, modernized (also "modernized") and first-time-leased flats are excluded as well.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by Cthulhu_ on Monday January 23, 2023 @07:19AM (#34487951)
> Situation in Germany: House prices are going down the last few months, but much more slowly than they consistently rose during the preceding 15 years. At the same time interest has sharply risen.

That's the case in NL as well; the causes are multi-fold, housing prices have consistently gone up in the past decade, while mortgage interest rates have gone down, meaning it's more attractive and interesting to get a house and mortgage now and fix the interest rate.

But the other issue there is a housing shortage, because population increase is not slowing down.

But the other issue is that houses aren't being built fast enough, for diverse reasons - NIMBY, having to give up farmland or nature for houses, counties that want pretty housing estates instead of functional apartment buildings (because 'ugly' houses attract undesireables), and new nitrogen laws making getting licenses more difficult.

And now there's sudden inflation due to a sudden change in situation (to put it mildly), which triggered the EU to rapidly increase interest rates (I'm no economist, I'm not sure how the two are related), which triggered mortgage rates to increase.

Given people were already borrowing the max amount they could, if the interest rates suddenly go up, a gap appears which caused the reduction in interest in buying a house, lowering demand. The other one is that people stopped looking for houses because their energy bill suddenly tripled or worse.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by dzonga on Monday January 23, 2023 @09:19AM (#34488986)
people in the NL are extremely lucky compared to other developed countries.

high quality housing stock at decent prices, compared to the UK / US etc.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by WeylandYutani on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:25PM (#34492840)
The Netherlands ultimately decided on socialism which means that even in Amsterdam a lot of the houses are on government rent control. Also mixed neighborhoods with low income and middle income households so that you never get into a "banlieue" situation.

The government decided what to build, where to build and for how much.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by WastingMyTime89 on Monday January 23, 2023 @07:35AM (#34488078)
> House prices are going down the last few months, but much more slowly than they consistently rose during the preceding 15 years.

You are looking at nominal prices. Inflation adjusted real estate prices crashed hard. They literally went down when everything else rose 8%.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by schroeding on Monday January 23, 2023 @07:47AM (#34488153)
> Everyone renting [...] from huge housing companies?

In cities like Munich, where the real estate is extremly valuable, definitely. The increase in inheritance tax you mentioned makes it very unattractive to not just sell the house to the highest bidder immediately, which in most cases will be one of the large housing companies.

For small tenements, it's very challenging to generate enough rental income to offset the inheritance tax in a single lifetime, especially if the new owners want to keep rents low.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by zeroCalories on Monday January 23, 2023 @06:37AM (#34487678)
Declining population isn't entirely relevant. Japan's major cities still continue to grow, and western countries will probably continue to grow as a whole due to immigration. I still suspect that we will see housing bubbles pop in some major western cities, but many will fight it to the death. I predict that whole industries moving to areas with more reasonable housing policy will be the cause. We already see it in cases with investment in Eastern Europe (especially Ukraine until a year ago), and southern U.S states. Part of me hopes that these cities with horribly selfish housing policy end up like the declining western cities that lost out when manufacturing went overseas.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by rwmj on Monday January 23, 2023 @06:47AM (#34487739)
Housing in Japan is so peculiar that it seems difficult to draw global lessons from it. Are there any other countries in the world where a perfectly servicable house that is over 30 years old is literally worth less than nothing (because it "must" be demolished before the land can be reused)?
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by zirgs on Monday January 23, 2023 @07:20AM (#34487960)
Depends on location. Some houses are indeed worth next to nothing, because nobody wants to live there.

In many cases a big farming company buys land with a house on it and then lets the house to rot, because they only need the farmland that's around it. And they don't bother to demolish the house, because it costs money.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by alangibson on Monday January 23, 2023 @07:05AM (#34487865)
I've never heard this before. Any insight into why values so quickly drop to 0?
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by makeitdouble on Monday January 23, 2023 @07:27AM (#34488021)
Building codes changing and earthquake resistant construction: plumbing is more flexible and less durable, shake resistance technology evolves enough to make old building deprecated (or the house is straight build with light wood with a set life expectancy)
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by rwmj on Monday January 23, 2023 @07:32AM (#34488059)
This is the reason often given, but I don't think it's always the true reason. I think people just don't want to live in a house that another family lived in if they have the choice (rental apartments seem to be different).
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by numpad0 on Monday January 23, 2023 @08:15AM (#34488349)
It's not just regulations and earthquake resistance, thermal and noise insulation too improve over time, following economic growth.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by pezezin on Monday January 23, 2023 @05:39PM (#34496133)
My experience living in Japan is that thermal and noise insulation is pretty much non-existent here.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by makeitdouble on Monday January 23, 2023 @07:00PM (#34496962)
It costs a bunch. Renting a reasonably priced standard room in Tokyo won't land such perks.

Going up to family size appartments in recently built middle-class complexes will usually come with pretty good insulation and you won't hear a baby crying at top volume.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by pezezin on Tuesday January 24, 2023 @06:53AM (#34502457)
The sad thing is that I live in Aomori, and the construction quality here is abysmal. I would understand the lack of proper insulation in warmer areas, but in Tohoku and Hokkaido?

And don't get me started on the lack of proper central heating and the use of the stupid portable kerosene heaters. Today I heard from a guy who is working for the village office that the most common emergency call now in winter are from elder people who suffered thermal shock inside their own houses when walking from a warm room to an almost frozen room.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by makeitdouble on Monday January 23, 2023 @09:51AM (#34489401)
Earthquakes’ influence isn’t just about when they happen. I might be hard to visualize but the actual structure and materials need to change to adapt.

For instance in europe lead pipes were widely used for the internal plumbing and nowadays it’s replaced by rigid and pretty durable polymers. The plumbing goes into the walls, floors, etc. to each place where water goes.

Except that doesn’t work if your walls and floor can shake. You don’t want pipes break into your walls and leak internally. So pipes can’t be rigid, and you’ll have to compromise on durability for flexibility.

When buying an appartment, our plumbing was rated for 30 years. After that, even if everything else is in a perfect state, we’d all have to tear down the building walls and change the plumbing. It can be done, but cost wise it’s not so far from rebuilding from scratch.

Public buildings get away with way longer life by either paying for way more expensive techniques, and/or having the plumbing and any other things that could need inspection or maintenance put outside the walls. It works great, but is ugly as fuck and can have other practical issues (all pipes being exposed has weird safety issues, some europeans house do that and it’s really not great)

And that’s just plumbing.

PS: the second hand housing market is actually super healthy. In particular you get to see how the buildings and neighbors are doing after a few years, and the risk of a bad surprise is that much lower.

PS2: you can live longer than 30y in a house/appartment. Its value just plummets, except if you prove you made all the recommended updates to extend its useful life. It’s basically the same as keeping a car for 40 years. It can be done, but it’s not the generic nor recommended use case.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by freetime2 on Monday January 23, 2023 @07:45AM (#34488147)
Posted a similar comment up above, but this isn’t really true anymore. Search in any non-rural area and you’ll see lots of 30+ year old houses that have recently been remodeled, or are in the process of being remodeled.

Here’s one that I found in Takasaki with very little effort.

https://suumo.jp/chukoikkodate/gumma/sc_takasaki/nc_70960514...

Most of the houses being torn down are not what I would consider “perfectly serviceable”. There are usually serious issues such that the home isn’t worth saving.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by timr on Monday January 23, 2023 @11:05AM (#34490510)
It's true for more places than not. Yes, you're seeing more homes that have been remodeled and put up for sale than in the past, but these are the minority -- mostly newer mansions in cities. For many/most homes, it's often financially better for the owner to just tear them down, or leave them to rot (the latter is a big problem across Japan).

Small towns really do have programs to give away homes if you commit to remodeling them or tear them down. Even in bigger cities it isn't difficult to find abandoned properties.

(I'll also add: people see things like Cheap Houses Japan, and make incorrect assumptions about the state of the resale market. For a large portion of those "cheap" properties, you'd have to put in 2-3x the sales price just to make them livable. In other words, the owners are trying to solve their financial problem by dumping it on someone else who is more willing to deal with it. This could be appealing for someone who wants a vacation home and loves the area, but it's not a healthy housing market.)

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by freetime2 on Monday January 23, 2023 @06:04PM (#34496371)
I think we are talking about different things here. The parent was referring to the practice of demolishing “perfectly serviceable” homes in order to construct a new home on the same land, implying a sort of deliberate wastefulness in the Japanese housing market.

But you’re talking more about markets where there is very little demand (due to declining population) for both new and used housing. Or homes that are in such a state of disrepair that it makes more sense to demolish them and rebuild from scratch.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by gkanai on Monday January 23, 2023 @07:06AM (#34487871)
> A good example is housing.

I think housing is a bad example to use wrt Japan.

Japan is one of the few markets in the world where, for the most part, only land has value. Buildings LOSE value over time. This is for multiple reasons but mostly due to ever-changing earthquake-related construction regulations such that it's almost always cheaper to rebuild from scratch than keep an edifice and retrofit to regulations.

This is also why Japan has more architects than any other country- if buildings are not kept and are almost always destroyed after a 30 year mortgage, the owner can build whatever they want and not have to be concerned about resale value- so lots of unique residential architecture.

Alastair Townsend first covered this in ArchDaily years ago and it went on to be covered extensively by NPR and other outlets.

https://www.archdaily.com/450212/why-japan-is-crazy-about-ho...

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by freetime2 on Monday January 23, 2023 @07:25AM (#34488003)
I think this is becoming increasingly less common. I am seeing lots of 30+ year old homes for sale in my local market that have been renovated by the seller before putting it up for sale. Housing quality has improved significantly since the post-WW2 era, so there’s no need to tear down a 30-year old home anymore. Some new appliances, wallpaper, and flooring is enough to attract a buyer.

I do still see a lot of houses being torn down. But they are more like 50+ years old, and in such a state of disrepair that they are not worth saving.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by dsfyu404ed on Monday January 23, 2023 @07:59AM (#34488254)
>I think this is becoming increasingly less common.

That should be the case. As regulations get stiffer and stiffer the amount of area under the "long tail" get smaller. Of course there's always people who want to screech about how more is needed but at some point the tail is so narrow that society just ignores them because the amortized cost per improvement is just so high it's a no-starter.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by zztop44 on Monday January 23, 2023 @08:20AM (#34488387)
I agree. I just bought a 20 year old place and it’s still in fine condition (and freshly renovated). Im planning to live in it for a while but honestly I wouldn’t be surprised if so long as I renovate it before selling I can get basically the same as what I paid now in another 10 or 15 years.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by InCityDreams on Monday January 23, 2023 @10:15AM (#34489750)
>I can get basically the same as what I paid now in another 10 or 15 years.

Accounting for inflation, or without (even approximately)?

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by TylerE on Monday January 23, 2023 @10:19AM (#34489800)
Is Japan inflationary? I know their central bank actually had negative interest rates for a long time.. still, maybe.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by richiebful1 on Monday January 23, 2023 @11:14AM (#34490675)
A whole 4% year-over-year. Seems like a pretty healthy level of inflation to me.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-19/japan-s-i...

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by anigbrowl on Monday January 23, 2023 @03:00PM (#34494132)
May I ask how difficult this was, in terms of paperwork and so forth, and (if you're not Japanese) getting to know your new neighbors? Thanks.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by jstarfish on Monday January 23, 2023 @05:39PM (#34496138)
From what I've seen, buying a house is easy (you can hire brokers/realtors to do the paperwork) but the biggest hurdle is your visa status. Owning property does not entitle you to stay in-country longer than 90 days. You'll need a local job or spouse in order to reside there.

Loans can also be difficult for foreigners to acquire, so prearrange financing or cash.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by lovemenot on Monday January 23, 2023 @06:14PM (#34496468)
I am not the person you responded to. I bought a house in Nagano last year. After living in Tokyo a long time The paperwork was not too difficult. Takes about 3 hours to walk through it all, in the presence of the seller, realtor and scrivener. Hand over the cash and take ownership.

The neighbours have been unexpectedly wonderful. Very kind. I live there most of the time and wish to contribute. I actually think it's advantageous to be a (European) foreigner. They realise all the little nit-picks that Japanese do to each other in the service of community would be mostly lost on me. YMMV.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by freetime2 on Monday January 23, 2023 @06:28PM (#34496634)
Having lived in Tokyo for a long time probably helped, as you are familiar with the language, local customs, and dealing with beaurocracy. I'm not sure if the parent has prior experience living in Japan, but if not I would think the whole process could be quite bewildering.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by anigbrowl on Monday January 23, 2023 @06:36PM (#34496721)
I do have longtime priors, but there are always new things to learn. Thanks.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by freetime2 on Monday January 23, 2023 @07:47PM (#34497448)
Ok then I would agree buying a house is easy. A real-estate agent should take care of everything and you are only really responsible for stamping your seal (about 100 times) and transfering the money.

Getting a loan is also fairly easy provided you are employed and have permanent residency (or a spouse who is a permanent resident or citizen). Shinsei Bank (recently acquired by SBI) seems to specialize in loaning to foreigners.

Neighbor situation is highly variable. I have some neighbors who I am quite friendly with, and others I literally have never seen. Typically neigbors will at least be polite, but you do hear horror stories of neighbors quarreling about taking out the trash, snow falling from the roof onto the neighbor's property, etc. My next-door neighbors live with their aging parents, and the grandfather (who has dementia) once shouted at someone who was doing work on my house. And people do tend to gossip, but it's mostly harmless.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by anigbrowl on Monday January 23, 2023 @10:18PM (#34498694)
That's helpful advice. Thanks again.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by dilznoofus on Wednesday January 25, 2023 @10:03PM (#34527253)
I have some passive knowledge of seals as used by Japanese folk

What determines the design of ones' seal as a foreigner? Just transliteration?

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by freetime2 on Wednesday January 25, 2023 @11:57PM (#34527824)
A Jitsu-in, which is the most official type of seal and is registered with the city office, needs to match your legal name. So mine is just my family name in latin characters. It looks funny but does the job.

For less formal seals you can pretty much pick whatever you want. For those I use my family name transliterated into katakana.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by fomine3 on Monday January 23, 2023 @08:35AM (#34488536)
Most important regulation for earthquake proof was made in 1981, that is about 40 years ago. It's often mentioned first on buying house checklist. So I expect that more houses will be supplied to market.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by KaoruAoiShiho on Monday January 23, 2023 @10:31AM (#34489966)
I wonder if japan has an architect industrial complex that would lobby to keep regulatory changes regular.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by zurn on Monday January 23, 2023 @07:20AM (#34487970)
Buildings lose value over time in most places. And in many places where they don't, including renovation investments in the picture results shows declining value.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by imtringued on Monday January 23, 2023 @08:48AM (#34488659)
The only places where buildings go up in value is where the building has been grandfathered in and is no longer able to be built in accordance with modern zoning rules.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by ryukafalz on Monday January 23, 2023 @09:31AM (#34489156)
Which is rather common in my experience. The town adjacent to the one I just moved to has a bunch of duplexes, but if you look at the current zoning it's all single-family-only. You couldn't build much of the town as it is today, which is a shame as it's very nice.

As you might expect given this, the town has steadily lost population.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by Tiktaalik on Monday January 23, 2023 @12:00PM (#34491543)
Existing buildings will go up in value in an environment where construction costs are rising and the cost of replacement is increasing.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by FranzFerdiNaN on Monday January 23, 2023 @09:11AM (#34488900)
Here in the Netherlands this is absolutely not true for houses. My house, despite no renovations done, has more than doubled in value over the past ten years. Housing shortages make sure that existing houses are definitely not losing value.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by dbsmith83 on Monday January 23, 2023 @09:47AM (#34489354)
But is that the value of the building, or the land that is increasing for yours? My home (building + land) value has gone up a ton due to the housing shortages in tech centers, but on the assessment, the building value has gone down, while the land value has shot up a lot.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by wodenokoto on Monday January 23, 2023 @08:13AM (#34488338)
Buildings always lose value over time unless they have exceptional historical value.

A small, new apartment next to the old, big apartment I live in is much more expensive than mine. And mine was considered high end when it was built.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by TheDong on Monday January 23, 2023 @08:18AM (#34488381)
Your claim is something different.

You're claiming that _relative to newer buildings_, yours has lost value.

The parent poster is claiming that _relative to the same building in the past_, prices go down in japan and up elsewhere.

Would the apartment you live in now have cost more or less 5 or 10 years ago? That's really the thing the parent poster is talking about, and other newer constructions are unrelated to that point.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by onlyrealcuzzo on Monday January 23, 2023 @09:05AM (#34488818)
> Buildings LOSE value over time.

This is not unique to Japan. Buildings depreciate.

You only notice it in Japan because general inflation has been close to 0% and sometimes negative.

Also - people in Japan tend to spend much less money updating their home compared to the rest of "The West". If you're sinking 1% of the value of your home into updates annually - the home isn't going to depreciate as much as if you didn't.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by pharmakom on Monday January 23, 2023 @10:50AM (#34490236)
Buildings lose value in almost every market. It’s just that in western cities the land increases by so much more than the building decreases we don’t notice it.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by Tiktaalik on Monday January 23, 2023 @11:59AM (#34491520)
Yes, but there remain factors that cause the value of western building to rise in value even decades later (my 120 year old house is worth $90,000 and going up in value). For example as construction costs increase, replacement costs increase, which causes the value of an existing building to rise.

This is apparently not the case, and for some odd reason (probably government and tax policy) a house absolutely goes to $0 in 25 years and stays there.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by Tiktaalik on Monday January 23, 2023 @12:04PM (#34491608)
It is very weird how houses depreciate very quickly in Japan.

There is surely intentional government policy behind this, and this would have significant impacts on the broader housing environment.

I recall reading at one point for example that the property transfer tax is lower for empty lots than it is for occupied lots. Another subtle housing policy that incentivizes people to tear down old houses.

Much has been written about Japan's zoning impacting its housing prices and rents, but imo it's as likely that the various tax and housing policy that creates this incentive to tear down homes is as important of a factor in creating a housing market that looks very different from other rich nations.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by tamade on Monday January 23, 2023 @02:42PM (#34493878)
It's just a notional loss for tax purposes. Japan has generous depreciation loopholes, some of which was closed a few years ago.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by Tangurena2 on Monday January 23, 2023 @12:29PM (#34491979)
In Japan, houses were treated as capital expenses. Other countries treat housing as capital assets. Things may have changed in Japan in the past two decades, but that's how things worked up into the late 90s/early 00s when I stopped studying all things Japanese. This financial treatment was why so many smaller/rural communities were turning into ghost towns.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by tamade on Monday January 23, 2023 @02:32PM (#34493754)
Not really. Japan isn't unique in how property is valued. Real estate values in market-based economies are set by the market. Cap rates in Japan are comparable to the US and other major markets. Assigning value to land or improvements is just accounting. Buildings in Japan (and elsewhere) "lose value" over time due to depreciation, not because only land has value. There are huge tax advantages to owning real estate vs other asset classes. For example, Japanese real estate owners take advantage of accelerated depreciation for wooden structures as a tax shield.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by steveBK123 on Monday January 23, 2023 @07:10AM (#34487903)
Europe - sure US has mostly solved our population aging problem with having fairly open immigration and high immigration numbers relative to the rest of the developed/rich world.. Now if politics change that, it's another story.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by zirgs on Monday January 23, 2023 @07:26AM (#34488015)
High immigration numbers are fine for countries like the USA. But for many small countries it's a death sentence.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by ericmay on Monday January 23, 2023 @07:31AM (#34488051)
Why? And do you mean small geographically or small population-wise? Perhaps both/neither?
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by zirgs on Monday January 23, 2023 @07:48AM (#34488161)
Population wise. Imagine 500k immigrants a year. It would be nothing for a country like India. But it would be a death sentence for Iceland.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by ericmay on Monday January 23, 2023 @08:00AM (#34488257)
Death sentence in that you envision the services and economy can’t handle that many new immigrants?
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by zirgs on Monday January 23, 2023 @08:08AM (#34488304)
Iceland with 80% of immigrants would not be Iceland any more. Its language and culture would be completely marginalised and replaced with something else.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by steveBK123 on Monday January 23, 2023 @08:27AM (#34488465)
No one is saying Iceland should take 80% immigrants. A rational conversation is that US takes a higher % of immigrants than most of the developed world. No one sane is comparing notional numbers comparing a 330M country & small 5M countries.

Talking % terms means it doesn't matter the base size.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by andsoitis on Monday January 23, 2023 @11:03AM (#34490473)
> Talking % terms means it doesn't matter the base size.

I think wether or not it matters depends on whether the effects of an increase is linear, sub linear, exponential, etc.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by distances on Monday January 23, 2023 @09:07AM (#34488845)
That's a bogus reason though. No culture is static, Japan or US or Germany 100 years ago were very different to the current day. Culture is how citizens live their lives, and it's pointless to try to immortalize something that is naturally in constant flux.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by ericmay on Monday January 23, 2023 @09:31AM (#34489157)
On the other hand, what rights do people have or not have to preserve their culture or their way of life?

An exaggerated example, but a good litmus test here is something simple like are you ok with lots of Americans moving to country X (let's use China and Norway) and making it culturally more like America? You can't say that this is a problem but then Iceland (since that's the example we're using) being weary of accepting large numbers of immigrants out of fear of culture change isn't a valid concern also.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by avar on Monday January 23, 2023 @10:46AM (#34490182)
Iceland's combined first- and second generation immigration is around 18% of the total population[1], [2] seems to suggest it's around 25% for the US.

The country has also signed up to accept practically unlimited immigration. It's a part of the EEA (the economic area of the EU), meaning that a population of around 500 million can move there tomorrow with very few legal hurdles. "Unlimited" in the sense that the difference between 500 million and the world population of 8 billion hardly matters for a country with a population of far less than 1/2 million.

1. https://www.hagstofa.is/utgafur/frettasafn/mannfjoldi/mannfj...

2. https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publicatio...

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by steveBK123 on Monday January 23, 2023 @12:13PM (#34491747)
Sure, but the practical limit is basically the attractiveness of an environment, economy & availability of jobs.

All things being equal, how many people want to flock to Iceland to work in tourism and fishing? Maybe with the right immigrants one could replicate their last financial bubble & crisis.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by kmeisthax on Monday January 23, 2023 @11:57AM (#34491491)
None of this actually requires immigration. Cultural imports are enough to utterly destroy aspects of local culture without a single person immigrating.

I don't know about Norway or Iceland specifically, but I have been told that English is so trendy in Sweden that not a lot of cultural works are actually written in Swedish anymore. As for China, we've actually gotten cultural backwash from Hollywood doing so much business there. Specifically, a lot of western media companies have had to self-censor in order to retain Chinese market access.

If we really wanted to coat every culture in amber then we would need a lot more than just immigration controls. We would need to emulate pre-Meiji Japan in every country in the world: i.e. no migration whatsoever, and heavy restriction and censorship of cultural imports. So no Internet, no imported cinema or TV shows, no international phone calls... hell, no international postal system.

Less dramatically you have countries like Canada or France that have local content quotas, but those have their own issues. But those are less "stop cultural change" and more "keep Hollywood from completely smothering our local creative industry".

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by ericmay on Monday January 23, 2023 @12:08PM (#34491687)
Yes none of this required immigration but that's besides the point when we're talking about a country absorbing immigrants.

> If we really wanted to coat every culture in amber then we would need a lot more than just immigration controls.

Following this extreme reasoning we should equally just dissolve all borders. Let's start with Japan or Switzerland perhaps? I've always thought it would be cool to live in Switzerland myself. I'm disappointed I can't retire to the Scottish countryside or to Brittany. Who are they to tell me I can't live there?

Obviously this is a non-starter, but being dismissive of others wanting to hold on to their contemporary culture is ridiculous too.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by dropit_sphere on Monday January 23, 2023 @12:16PM (#34491800)
>No culture is static,

indeed, the dodo would agree

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by ROTMetro on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:14PM (#34492664)
The Santa Cruz I grew up in, with vibrant cultures from hippies to punkers is gone. All the people that lived there have been forced to move due to lack of affordability, and the people and local culture has been replaced with immigrants. While there is a town, culturally, it is not the town I grew up. If you asked us in the 80/early 90s if we wanted that, we would have said no, we would like to be able to live the life we created, have the neighbors we have known our whole lives, etc instead of being California refugees spread across Oregon/Washington/Idaho/Nevada/Hawaii. It's not really bogus to those peoples whose entire way of life is being displaced, and shouldn't they have a say and some sort of agency over their local culture?
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by avar on Monday January 23, 2023 @10:51AM (#34490260)
As an Icelander, our traditional culture has already been completely marginalized and destroyed by the outlawing of piracy, as well as of raping and pillaging.

If the rest of the world would agree to look the other way on those topics, I'm sure we could be persuaded to once again accept double-digit percentages of the population as sla..., ahem, immigrants every year.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by hnbad on Thursday January 26, 2023 @08:04AM (#34531140)
Why is that a problem? Languages and culture change all the time. Iceland is hardly "Iceland" anymore compared to any sufficiently past "Iceland" (e.g. pre-Internet, pre-aviation, pre-motor vehicles, etc) but I don't see any reason why that is a bad thing in principle.

This seems an odd concern to be raised in a language that can charitably be described as the bastard child of Norse and French mostly spoken by people who never sat foot in Great Britain. You also seem to assume all of those immigrants are culturally and language-wise homogeneous, which is unlikely to be the case unless, say, something catastrophic happens to Canada causing its population to flee to neighboring countries (and even then that's a bad example because Canada is heterogeneous itself).

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by gotorazor on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:03PM (#34492500)
Considering that Iceland has a population of less than 400k, more than doubling the population over a 12-month period in the cold would be a death sentence not just the the country, but for all the new immigrants that are moving there.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by manuelabeledo on Monday January 23, 2023 @10:13AM (#34489722)
> US has mostly solved our population aging problem with having fairly open immigration and high immigration numbers relative to the rest of the developed/rich world

I'm not sure about that. For starters, it's easier to immigrate to Germany or the UK than to the US, and by percentage of the population, Germany does host a higher number of immigrants.

The US does accept more foreigners yearly, but it makes it a long way, if any, to stay in the country permanently.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by codekansas on Monday January 23, 2023 @10:32AM (#34489991)
A key difference is jus soli citizenship in the Americas, if you're born here you're a citizen
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by steveBK123 on Monday January 23, 2023 @12:31PM (#34492011)
Yup, we don't have permanent citizen sub-classes like Koreans in Japan who end up being neither Korean nor Japanese even multiple generations in.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by eldaisfish on Monday January 23, 2023 @10:40AM (#34490082)
Skills. The US hoovers up the world’s skilled immigrants. Germany - like much of the non-english speaking world is left with the scraps.

Don’t take it from me, look at what the German government is doing with allowing foreigners to immigrate there. When a country throws open its doors the way Germany has, you must ask the question - why?

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by m0llusk on Monday January 23, 2023 @12:18PM (#34491823)
Population crash, that's why. You can choose not to have kids but enterprises cannot choose to not have employees. People can be taught new skills.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by nemo44x on Monday January 23, 2023 @11:20AM (#34490764)
Maybe legally but we literally have millions of people that come here to work every year and are not documented. Nearly 3 million last year and although there are many refugees that are here for help, it's mainly people that want to work in everything from kitchens, the landscaping, to construction, to farming, to whatever else can make use of people that want to work hard every day at a manual job and show up.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by steveBK123 on Monday January 23, 2023 @12:04PM (#34491610)
I suspect EU country vs US comparisons get thrown off as well by EU freedom of movement vs US interstate mobility. We should probably be looking at aggregate EU immigration from non-EU nations when comparing to other developed countries.

Someone born in France but lives in Germany vs someone born in New York but lives in California are both similarly easy from a legal standpoint. However counting the Frenchman in Germany as an immigrant seems kind of dubious given that's kind of the point of the EU.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by mardifoufs on Monday January 23, 2023 @12:50PM (#34492314)
That's only true if you are educated and from the west. Otherwise, it's much harder to legally (or illegally) immigrate to germany. The USA is a lot more open to immigrants, and in my experience, there is more xenophobia/racism towards non-western immigrants in germany.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by manuelabeledo on Monday January 23, 2023 @02:41PM (#34493872)
I'm not comparing Germany to the US from a societal standpoint, but their legal immigration frameworks.

For instance, the US has immigration quotas for pretty much everything, thus the backlogs that resulted in Chinese and Indian born people to wait for a decade or more to achieve their permanent residency status. The process is also extremely complex and, as a result of that, it is quite expensive, in the order of thousands of dollars.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by Cthulhu_ on Monday January 23, 2023 @07:14AM (#34487925)
> Will also the USA and Europe get stuck technologically as the population grows older? Again, it is to be expected.

You already see it in some countries that just skipped cable TV, desktop PCs and wired internet, and that went straight to smartphones with mobile internet (or wifi). These are countries where you can do everything with your phone, whereas here some (e.g. government, banking organizations) are still trying to catch up and adjust.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by ROTMetro on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:06PM (#34492533)
But is this MORE technological? Using smartphones imparts way less tech capabilities on the user than does using PCs, and definitely doesn't push users to learning new things (how many people are discovering IDEs on their phone and learning development as a hobby?).
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by gonzo41 on Monday January 23, 2023 @07:22AM (#34487988)
Old people love buttons. I don't say this disparagingly. I too long for my feature phone days. Things were simpler.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by Mumps on Monday January 23, 2023 @07:24AM (#34487998)
Typed from a Cherry MX "keeb".
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by ehnto on Monday January 23, 2023 @07:53AM (#34488196)
> Will also the USA and Europe get stuck technologically as the population grows older? Again, it is to be expected.

I think they may have escaped to evergreen technology for consumer electronics, but one might argue America is equally as trapped by historical infrastructure. Japan's infrastructure is interesting as it's clear much of it was built in the 80s and 90s, but it's still serviceable and their big bets on trains turned out to be rather future proof. When walking the streets, especially somewhere like Osaka, you can see much of the signage, bridges, pedestrian crossing buttons are very old indeed. You do often feel like you are in a future-past of some kind.

None of these statements apply universally across both countries mind you, there is good rail in the US and modern infra in Japan as well.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by wheelerof4te on Monday January 23, 2023 @08:38AM (#34488563)
"Another interesting one is technology. Japan got trapped in the 90s, the fax era, and it is difficult to change."

I believe that their mindset and stance towards technology is simply different.

Japan had a history of "gadget technology", which was revolutional in the 90's before the Internet became ubiquious.

I am guessing that they (myself included) were dissapointed in the direction technological advances went. Their vision maybe didn't happen, but that doesn't make it wrong, or that the current technological trends are right.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by quartesixte on Monday January 23, 2023 @11:31AM (#34490965)
>Their vision maybe didn't happen, but that doesn't make it wrong, or that the current technological trends are right.

Nicely put. Perhaps the smartphone era will be seen as a odd blip in a long history of gadgets. Who knows what the future might bring?

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by x98asfd on Monday January 23, 2023 @10:23AM (#34489844)
>Another interesting one is technology. Japan got trapped in the 90s, the fax era, and it is difficult to change. Will also the USA and Europe get stuck technologically as the population grows older? Again, it is to be expected.

Would beg to differ. Japan is one those nation with extremely advanced space, robotic and nuclear tech. They can be a nuclear power over night if they are allowed to legally. Far as space, they landed probe on asteroid for space mining (https://www.space.com/41898-hayabusa2-deploys-hopping-robots... ).

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by rayiner on Monday January 23, 2023 @11:55AM (#34491440)
Yeah, this is a very narrow HN definition of “technology”—I.e. web technology. And even then it overlooks the hardware side, since Japan has among the fastest broadband speeds, Japanese companies are leaders in cellular and fiber communications technology, etc.

In terms of “core industrial competencies”—ability to design and build a nuke, ability to make advanced materials, ability to design and build a competitive microprocessor, ability to put things in space, etc.—Japan is still the second most technologically advanced country in the world.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by JamesBarney on Monday January 23, 2023 @06:30PM (#34496656)
And weirdly enough making high quality ball bearings.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by lovemenot on Monday January 23, 2023 @08:46PM (#34497991)
I heard that the pachinko industry got its head start from the post-war surplus production of ball bearings. Perhaps the quality you mention is now feasible as a result of the scale economics from pachinko ball production.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by loeg on Tuesday January 24, 2023 @12:00PM (#34506380)
Yep: NSK, NTN.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by retrac on Monday January 23, 2023 @11:25AM (#34490873)
> Japan got trapped in the 90s, the fax era, and it is difficult to change

The fax machine in Japan is always treated like it's proof they're stuck in a timewarp, an earlier age, and just haven't moved on.

But I think it makes sense. Japan was introduced to fax technology early on. Japanese is traditionally written vertically. It is written with Chinese characters. In handwritten Japanese, people actually invent/modify characters on the spot. (Much as how Engl. text might be littered with randomly-invented abbr'vns.) They're not going to be able to enter those into a computer easily.

Some Japanese newspapers were using traditional typesetting techniques right into the 21st century because vertical text support was, and largely still is, an afterthought in most publishing software. Software has only recently gotten to the point where it can replace a fax machine and handwriting, for reproducing Japanese texts in the manner the Japanese expect. Besides scanning/taking a photo of a page and emailing it, which isn't enough of an improvement to motivate the change. (Particularly as business faxes just end up digitized and emailed anyway.)

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by wk_end on Monday January 23, 2023 @12:04PM (#34491601)
> declining population has not reduced price of houses in the city

Despite overall declining population, Japan's major urban centres are actually increasing their population. Tokyo, Osaka, Yokohama, Nagoya, Sapporo, Fukuoka, Hiroshima, Sendai, and more are all growing cities.

Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by nebula8804 on Monday January 23, 2023 @12:56PM (#34492405)
People like Peter Zeihan argue that the USA seems like it will have a large replacement population just because they had a large population to begin with (boomers -> Millenials -> Gen Alpha). There are things that can blunt this (Millenials can't afford to have kids) but so far it seems like it is holding fairly steady. Given this it would be difficult to argue for them getting stuck in some specific technological era.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by ROTMetro on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:03PM (#34492492)
Considering older people tend to use computers and be more tech savvy while younger generations only interact with tech on their phones it will be interesting how this turns out.
Re:Japan: The Harbinger State by tudorizer on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:59PM (#34493301)
People do like to mention those faxes a lot, don't they? Or pocket translators.

I think there are other uses of tech far beyond it that are far better integrated in the Japanese society that in the western world.