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Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by bragr on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:26PM (#32740224)
Give the corresponding housing crisis in the Bay Area, one wonders if the solution is to "simply" start converting office space to living space until the corresponding demand for office space recovers from a combination of increased demand and decreased supply. Now I'm sure there are all kinds of challenges to doing that, engineering, zoning, other practicalities, but it seems overall reasonable to me, though perhaps someone with a better understanding of the situation might enlighten me.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by ptmcc on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:42PM (#32740436)
Most offices have physical layouts that make conversion to residential difficult to impossible. Big things like lots of interior square footage without windows and plumbing only to a few central locations.

And while some or even most of this is fixable, major renovations are a ton of cost and effort to convert them to something that will still be expensive and weird, if even possible to meet the legal requirements of residential space.

https://sfstandard.com/housing-development/turning-downtown-...

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by ethbr0 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:48PM (#32740522)
Maybe SF should relax the legal requirements of residential space, then?

If they choose not to build sufficient housing... they can at least choose to use what they have.

A windowless room with a community bathroom doesn't sound appealing, but at a certain price point it's better than nothing.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by silicon2401 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:05PM (#32740769)
> Maybe X should relax the legal requirements of Y

That's a slippery slope. Lots of legal requirements exist to protect someone. Legal requirements for windows are pretty reasonable to ensure people have at least some bare minimum of access to natural light in their home, rather than just living in a box.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by lghh on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:08PM (#32740815)
Seems to me like lots of people in SF would rather live in an indoor box than an outdoor box.

Why not let those without homes choose if they are willing to take the risks associated with ignoring those rules over l king on the streets?

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by raydev on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @05:25PM (#32743396)
> lots of people in SF would rather live in an indoor box than an outdoor box.

Yes, and people voluntarily placed themselves under indentured servitude before it was made illegal.

If there's a housing shortage, the solution isn't to remove bare minimum housing standards for everyone.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by entropicdrifter on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:14PM (#32740900)
Because that's how you get the haves taking even greater advantage of the have-nots, to the point of injury, illness, and death in the name of slightly greater profits.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by lghh on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:58PM (#32741589)
How? By letting them sleep inside? I don't understand.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by bluefirebrand on Wednesday September 07, 2022 @01:14AM (#32746605)
By lowering acceptable living standards, the haves, aka the landlords, would be able to cheaply produce bottom of the barrel, barely acceptable living spaces and then since there is a housing crisis they could charge a premium for the have nots, aka the renters, in order to live in those shitty, barely acceptable homes.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by stavros on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:13PM (#32740880)
Presumably an office space would still cost more than a homeless person could afford, so it's not economical to convert an office to ultra-cheap housing.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by JumpCrisscross on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:33PM (#32741183)
> Presumably an office space would still cost more than a homeless person could afford, so it's not economical to convert an office to ultra-cheap housing

It may be something a marginally housed person could afford, though. Maybe that makes room in their budget for healthier food, addiction counseling or after-school tutoring. Or maybe they're already strained and would otherwise be on the street.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by jcadam on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:18PM (#32740951)
An open floor plan office has plenty of space for rows of bunks. Better than sleeping outside.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by silicon2401 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:16PM (#32740921)
> Why not let those without homes choose if they are willing to take the risks associated with ignoring those rules over l king on the streets?

I'd rather have a government that enforces a high quality of life.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by ethbr0 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:51PM (#32741491)
As would we all, but we have to be cognizant that enforcing a high quality of life also means ignoring people who can't afford the raised minimum.

By and large, I'm a fan of American-style freedom-to-succeed-or-fail, but in the context of NIMBY anti-density housing supply crunches, it feels exceptionally cruel.

'We're going to have policies that limit supply and increase the cost of housing' + 'We're going to prevent you from finding other housing by making it illegal' is a heavy one-two punch.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by lghh on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:57PM (#32741581)
Sure, but if the choice is this in the immediate term vs "a government that enforces a high quality of life" in the maybe-but-not-for-certain long term, I'd much rather take steps in that direction instead of waiting for some mythical perfect situation to present itself.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by trcarney on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @05:29PM (#32743444)
Or maybe it's government involvement that has caused the whole issue in the first place and more government involvement would lead to an even bigger problem.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by whartung on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:13PM (#32740884)
I can't say for certain, but I think most regulations about windows are about having an escape in case of disaster.

Specifically, there was house we were looking at, and one of the previous owners covered up the back porch.

However, one of the bedrooms used to overlook that back porch, and had a window on that wall.

They were not allowed to remove that window because "bedrooms have windows", even though the window was an interior window.

Similarly, we considered replacing our bedroom window with a bay window, but the code would not allow it because the windows were too small to allow egress.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by silicon2401 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:17PM (#32740947)
I completely forgot about the fire thing, and that only strengthens my argument/stance. The Triangle fire was a terrible tragedy in American history during which a lot of women died not even because of lack of windows, but because doors and windows were barred. Now imagine how many people would be at risk if they didn't even have windows in the first place.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by coryrc on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:24PM (#32741065)
The windows in a 50-story skyscraper are not very useful for escape.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by rileyphone on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:50PM (#32741460)
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by JumpCrisscross on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:17PM (#32740933)
> Lots of legal requirements exist to protect someone

That someone is often the homeowners [1].

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/05/19/upshot/forty-...

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by silicon2401 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:18PM (#32740949)
Paywall, can't read that
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by dredmorbius on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @08:28PM (#32744921)
There comes a time when one expects that experienced Internet and Web users know the usual workarounds, such as Archive.Is:

https://archive.is/https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/...

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by seanmcdirmid on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:14PM (#32740890)
> Legal requirements for windows

These are mostly for fire safety, not quality of life. Turns out not having a window during a fire has killed lots of people.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by HereIGoAgain on Wednesday September 07, 2022 @01:33AM (#32746736)
This is SF (and a major US city) we are talking about.. A whole shitload of those "requirements" are meant to keep prop values up and exert total control over who and what gets built and when.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by throwaway0a5e on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:18PM (#32740963)
>Lots of legal requirements exist to protect someone.

SF is the poster child for what happens when a bunch of people incapable or unmotivated to engage in planning more than 5min into the future write a law about everyone's pet issue.

Clearly there's a balance to be struck and it's to be struck somewhere on the less regulatory side than it is now.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by google234123 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:14PM (#32740893)
California has taken housing requirements to an extreme: https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-broughel-hamilto...
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by koheripbal on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @07:04PM (#32744308)
In general, that may sometimes be true, but in the SF Bay Area, those restrictions on residential development have always been excessive and about protecting property values for existing home owners.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by UnpossibleJim on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:12PM (#32740862)
Given that we spend at least 8 hours a day working in these places, working, is anyone surprised at the resistance to return to the office? It's "basically unlivable" but ok to toil in for a third of your living day in (minus the traffic)... I'm sure I'll face a lot of backlash for placing the argument in this framing, but I think more than a few people feel this way.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by ptmcc on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:53PM (#32740594)
But that is also key to the problem: the cost to convert these buildings is already prohibitively expensive, and converting them into dormitories cannot possibly recoup the cost.

It's like how sometimes it just doesn't make sense to refactor code because it is fundamentally designed for a different purpose. Sure you can grind it out but will it be any better or cheaper than starting fresh?

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by mortenjorck on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:21PM (#32741011)
> converting them into dormitories cannot possibly recoup the cost

Once we start talking easing housing code requirements, especially if it's done in the name of increasing access to housing, the conversation becomes about just how much conversion is really necessary, and how little can be done to break even. And there's a big continuum.

If one end of this continuum is a standard college dorm setup, the other is literally just letting people camp out in an otherwise-unmodified office floor. In between are probably SRO-level accommodations, building four-wall cubicles with open ceilings for sunlight and ventilation (sometimes traditionally covered in chickenwire).

As grim as this sounds, it might actually be preferable to the current practice of allowing tent cities to proliferate downtown. The idea of an office tower slum is incredibly dystopian, but if the alternative is the properties becoming write-offs, it may be the most likely outcome.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by ethbr0 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:57PM (#32741570)
> The idea of an office tower slum is incredibly dystopian

It's hard to get more contemporary cyberpunk than an organic community nesting in an ex-Facebook office building.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by cycomanic on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:37PM (#32741242)
Why should anyone care about the rich owners of the office buildings having to write off their losses and instead make it easier to accommodate people like cattle. The only way they are going to recoup some of their costs is by charging significantly for the right to live in a windowless box.

So it seems this scheme is much less about helping some poor homeless person and much more about some rich investor keeping some money.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by ethbr0 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:58PM (#32741598)
In the event regulations are relaxed, I have absolutely zero problem haircutting the hell out of the formerly-commercial owners.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by adam_arthur on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:10PM (#32740830)
It's not prohibitively expensive... office to residential conversions have already been done in many cases.

Of course the specifics of the building matter a lot, but it's certainly cheaper than ground up net new development.

And even if the conversion leads to abnormal units per modern standards, it will still get occupied at the right price.

Seems a no brainer to rezone most office space to residential. Free market will figure it out. You can bet buying these commercial properties at firesale prices will open up a profitable path to residential

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by sharklazer on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:00PM (#32740690)
Even bigger, most of the buildings are highly leveraged. There literally is no incentive unless the mortgages can be restructured, as the ultimate prices will be forwarded to the renter.

Everyone’s underwater a there isn’t a good solution without massive price decrease (crash) or commercial space demand re-invigorates.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by JumpCrisscross on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:01PM (#32740702)
> most of the buildings are highly leveraged. There literally is no incentive unless the mortgages can be restructured, as the ultimate prices will be forwarded to the renter.

This is what recessions are useful for. Underwater mortgages still need to be serviced. There might be a deal in providing assistance to the lender in exchange for financing conversion.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by adam_arthur on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:12PM (#32740870)
It's called default and foreclosure, followed by liquidation by the lender.

The mortgages will fail for most new office space, because the underwriting used unrealistic assumptions about rents.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by klooney on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:05PM (#32740766)
I mean, SF residential prices are still super high, it seems like it oughta pencil out.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by metadaemon on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:15PM (#32740911)
I think flooding the market in new living spaces would decrease demand, leading to lower rent.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by olyjohn on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:31PM (#32741156)
Sometimes it feels like the people who own these buildings would rather let them rot, than make less than premium top-dollar market value.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by kyleee on Wednesday September 07, 2022 @12:31AM (#32746330)
yes, i think there must be tax and accounting strategies that allow buildings to remain vacant, really to the detriment of all except the owner(s)
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by gibsonf1 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:06PM (#32740776)
The requirements for residential units are primarily the International Building Code, which are the expensive ones. The city only manages planning, such as a residential use can go in a certain area. To actually build, you need a building permit which has to conform to City and State building codes [2], which right now is basically the International Building Code [1]. And yes, it would cost a fortune to convert office into residential use. However, if office buildings become truly deserted and can be bought at very low cost, then it can start making financial sense.

The building codes have evolved over time to protect life/safety of the occupants, so not something you would want to have the City bypass.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Building_Code [2] https://sfdbi.org/codes

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by gernb on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:23PM (#32741045)
Many of those codes have been designed to protect incombents from competition and various other forms of encouraging one form of living (car dependent) over others.

Plenty of people in Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, etc live happy lives in much much smaller living areas. This makes them more affordable. But building codes in many places in the USA disallow making places that small.

Other examples of questionable codes are codes that require parking spaces, codes that require front yards, codes that require backyards, etc....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCOdQsZa15o

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bnKIVX968PQ

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by gibsonf1 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:44PM (#32741357)
(I'm an Architect who has built in SF)

Parking spaces, front yards, back yards, building heights, building types, density etc are all City Planning functions, and you're right, have little to do with life/safety typically, and in many ways are quite destructive by making walkable livable cities very difficult to do now.

The Building codes, on the other hand, have evolved with each disaster over the last century or two - a building collapsing in an earthquake, people dying in fires, etc. So those have real life/safety protection as a primary directive.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by yonran on Sunday September 11, 2022 @02:59AM (#32797431)
One San Francisco-specific building code that might make it difficult to subdivide an office building into smaller rooms is SFBC 1204 https://codelibrary.amlegal.com/codes/san_francisco/latest/s... that requires almost all habitable rooms to have a window for natural light. In San Francisco, we trust mechanical ventilation, but for some reason we don’t trust electric lights. I think this code is an obsolete holdover that has nothing to do with health or safety anymore.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by 5d8767c68926 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:46PM (#32741391)
>But building codes in many places in the USA disallow making places that small.

Given how little exercise people get and that we are typically glued to a screen (tv, laptop, or phone) during waking hours, I could see an argument for lowering floor space minimums.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by gibsonf1 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:51PM (#32741497)
Code minimum bedroom sizes are pretty small: https://buildingcodetrainer.com/minimum-bedroom-size/
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by s0rce on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:52PM (#32740577)
As long as its safe to occupy for permanent living it should get permitted, not sure how its much different than a hostel/rooming house-like arrangement. You don't need a kitchen and bathroom in your unit to live.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by notch656a on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:01PM (#32740707)
Safety will always be a top argument to constrain and block off new housing. Look at current building codes. Sure all those things make us safer -- if you ignore the homeless left on the streets and the people who no longer have money left over for good food, education, and healthcare after paying the high price it costs to build an up-to-code house in America.

You can restrict housing practically as tight as you want by raising permitting requirements, safety assessments, and safety factors and other safety features until it's practically impossible for anyone but the rich to build.

There are people out there that would be safer in a run-down tinder-box shack than an up to code and zoned house. Not because the house is safer, but because it allows them to have an affordable roof over their head and round out their finances for other things that bring them wellbeing. Building and zoning codes fail to account for this.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by seanmcdirmid on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:21PM (#32741015)
China has a lot of people living in subbasements ("ant tribe", not just the immediate floor before ground, but the 3rd or 4th floor below ground). No egress, crappy ventilation (mold is a huge problem), but its cheap. Also, a lot of restaurants in Beijing have their staff sleeping out in their dining room after they close up as a form of worker dorms (people also sleep in their shops, which is why they cover the windows up after closing). So this is all very crappy housing situations, but its cheap, and one reason why China doesn't have a huge homeless problem (though still larger than the government admits).

Japan has a lot of 2.5 tatami sized apartments that you can get for $500/month (even in Tokyo). No heat, but you can plug in a space heater. Shared toilet, and no shower necessarily in building (so you have to use a bath house down the street).

America goes out of its way to avoid such living arrangements, and to avoid things like slums. I think we could do a better job at creating lower end housing, however, by sacrificing some of our livability principles. But it isn't going to fix the guy who wants to cook meth in their state provided housing.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by fakethenews2022 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @05:18PM (#32743320)
My opinion is that the problem with SF isn’t as much housing. It is more with mental health and drug addiction. You do know where many immigrants live right? It isn’t so much on the streets. It is 16 packed into a single apartment. So the mechanisms people talk about already exist. It is that the homeless can’t work because of mental or social issues that compound with drug abuse. You need to fix the mental issues, social issues, and the drug abuse. The housing helps a little but the underlying problems are still there. I think the results already show this.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by seanmcdirmid on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @08:39PM (#32745001)
> It is that the homeless can’t work because of mental or social issues that compound with drug abuse.

You mean "chronic homeless." There are homeless that you don't notice because they aren't standing out. They are living in cars or maybe crashing on someone's couch. Let's not equate homelessness with mental illness drug abuse.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by fakethenews2022 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @09:22PM (#32745308)
Agree.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by fakethenews2022 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @05:31PM (#32743462)
We can just measure this. What percentage of people we give just housing to get off their feet after say a year or two? What percentage of people we allow to shoot up in city approved areas go clean after a year or two? From what I have read, it is a percentage in the low single digits.

We are perpetuating a permanent dependent underclass along with a bureaucracy that is incentivized to maintain the class to maintain their power.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by seanmcdirmid on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @11:27PM (#32746027)
> We can just measure this.

How? Getting accurate statistics is impossible, and what we get is self reported. "I'm not on drugs anymore!" (while smoking fent) is not uncommon. Every group will roll out self reported data to support their positions, scientific studies are frowned on, if they are even possible anyways.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by fakethenews2022 on Wednesday September 07, 2022 @12:22AM (#32746274)
SF rolled out stats. Their stats did the opposite of supporting their position. Some stats are so bad that you can only lie in interpretation.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by vkou on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @07:40PM (#32744587)
SROs were a housing solution for low-income people who were not functional[1] enough to live with roommates, but were functional enough to be able to live alone.

When we got rid of them, many of their former inhabitants ended up on the street.

[1] For an incredibly broad definition of 'not functional'.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by fakethenews2022 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @08:17PM (#32744834)
I agree. Your Democratic mayors and supervisors did that. They tore down the SOMA SROs and replaced them with tech campuses without a plan of where to house those people. But it is multi-factorial. You have mental health institutions closed down a decade earlier as well. They should have been reformed instead of closed down.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by seanmcdirmid on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @08:41PM (#32745027)
> Your Democratic mayors and supervisors did that.

You mean: the people who run the cities did that, who all happen to be incredibly Democratic. They also did it in San Diego, where I bet a Republican mayor was in power at the time (since you know, that was mostly true in the 80s, 90s, and 00s), but economics rather than political ideology was the main driver of the gentrification.

> You have mental health institutions closed down a decade earlier as well.

Mostly by that famous Democrat named Ronald Reagan?

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by fakethenews2022 on Wednesday September 07, 2022 @12:23AM (#32746277)
Wrong. It was passed before Reagan got into office.

https://igeek.com/Reagan_emptied_mental_institutions_and_cau...

So you don't assign any responsibility to the people who passed it? How quaint. Why even bother to vote? BTW, one of them is governor right now.

If a Republican did it, vote them out of office too.

In the SF case that I was referring to, it really was all Democrats. I was talking just about SF. Brown opened it up. Newsom continued it.

Having trouble with basic reading comprehension, facts, and culpability? Or just biased?

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by fakethenews2022 on Wednesday September 07, 2022 @12:49AM (#32746425)
I grew up in SF and I was astounded how a city that had trouble getting anything built managed to tear down a neighborhood in such short order. It was as if Brown was in cahoots with powerful developers and used his political power to push it through. Up went a bridge to his liking, down went the Embarcadero, up went a ballpark, and all the SROs went poof. Newsom goes and continues all the policies. Development after development.

Now twenty years later, you have Newsom as governor and angling for the Presidency. Not one peep about how his policies helped cause those problems.

Why was it so easy to build all those tech campuses and tech dorms yet so hard to build anywhere else in the city? People complain about NIMBY SF but where was the NIMBY there and then?

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by seanmcdirmid on Thursday September 08, 2022 @09:29PM (#32774243)
Reagan empties the mental hospitals in California while he was governor of that state.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by vkou on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @09:24PM (#32745326)
This has happened across the entire country, in big towns and small, in red states and blue, (and, to a great extent, across the rest of the developed world). I assure you, the Democratic boogiemen are not responsible for such a broad international failure.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by fakethenews2022 on Wednesday September 07, 2022 @12:51AM (#32746437)
It wasn’t Democrat boogeyman. It was those people fronting for those interests. Those people in SF happened to be Democrats. And those Democrats are still fronting for those interests. I disagree with the fronting of interests and those Democrats were complicit and still are. If there is a Democrat who won’t front for those interests, I will gladly vote for them. In fact I have.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by rapind on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:05PM (#32740763)
> A windowless room with a community bathroom doesn't sound appealing, but at a certain price point it's better than nothing.

You make this legal and tomorrow every RE developer stops putting in windows.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by Longlius on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:11PM (#32740853)
Then put restrictions on it - pass a law that allows you to convert commercial to residential during X number of years and for that converted commercial to have slightly laxer requirements than standard residential housing. Don't allow new residential construction to skirt the regulations and put a time limit on the law to keep property developers from simply building commercial with the off-chance of being able to convert it to residential if the market for commercial real estate doesn't rebound.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by acchow on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @05:51PM (#32743687)
If only making laws was as simple as adding if statements in computer programs...

In the real world, you have millions of agents try to game every law and bend it into their advantage in some way.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by JumpCrisscross on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:21PM (#32741017)
> You make this legal and tomorrow every RE developer stops putting in windows

This sounds like new housing supply. I'm failing to see the problem. Developers still have to sell the apartment, after all.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by sangnoir on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @05:23PM (#32743382)
>This sounds like new housing supply. I'm failing to see the problem

The problem is the new housing supply was always imminent - only now, it's windowless, all because developers can increase margins by 1.07% and shorten build times by a day.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by colinmhayes on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:27PM (#32741096)
Except people will pay extra for windows...
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by jshprentz on Wednesday September 07, 2022 @09:38AM (#32750437)
> A windowless room with a community bathroom doesn't sound appealing, but at a certain price point it's better than nothing.

Last November, HN briefly discussed [1] Munger Hall at the University of California Santa Barbara, which will be just such a building. Housing 4,500 students, only 32 of 512 single rooms on each floor will have physical windows. The remaining 95% will have virtual windows that simulate sunlight.

The HN linked article [2] includes a floor plan and a rendering of an 8-room cluster with shared kitchen, dining room, and bathrooms. UC Santa Barbara has more information on the project [3].

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29096773

[2] https://www.dezeen.com/2021/11/02/architect-resigns-grotesqu...

[3] https://sam.ucsb.edu/campus-planning-design/current-projects...

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by radicaldreamer on Wednesday September 14, 2022 @03:06AM (#32834129)
This building is a recipe for mental illness. It’s like someone saw Kowloon Walled City and was like, let’s do that (or Chungking Mansions).

People do live there (some pretty happily) but this does not seem like a good idea for UCSB freshmen.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by ulfw on Wednesday September 07, 2022 @10:51AM (#32751398)
Terrible way to live for a human being. Hello Matrix.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by HeyLaughingBoy on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @03:15PM (#32741862)
> A windowless room with a community bathroom doesn't sound appealing,

It also likely doesn't meet Fire code, which is there for a pretty good reason.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by fshbbdssbbgdd on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:52PM (#32740573)
Can they be converted into huge units with an open floor plan and bathroom/kitchen near the center?

If someone can figure out how to make it look cool, office conversions could be the 2020s version of the warehouse loft.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by somethoughts on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:13PM (#32740876)
Half jokingly - I wonder if that is what sorta is in the works with Adam Neumann's latest project - Flow. Definitely seems similar to how the original WeWork offices were started - transforming unused loft safe into high end but communal office space. It'd probably be more like an extended stay hotel (just rooms on most floors) with a common restaurant.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidjeans/2022/08/17/adam-neum...

"When Adam Neumann revealed his new venture to WeWork-ify the residential real estate sector Monday, backed by a $350 million≥."

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by kelseyfrog on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:58PM (#32740659)
Sublime. All of the people who hated working in an open office are screaming at the idea of living in one.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by lotsofpulp on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:10PM (#32740838)
I am very over getting together in people’s open plan kitchen + living/family/dining room homes and being unable to have a conversation because 10 people’s voices are bouncing around one room with 10ft ceilings when there is enough space for 2 or even 3 separate rooms. And the TV volume is on for some reason. And the exhaust above the stove is on. And the kitchen faucet is running.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by kelseyfrog on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:17PM (#32740943)
A lot of those conversations could have been just an email.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by mitchdoogle on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:46PM (#32741409)
nice
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by MiddleEndian on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:08PM (#32740805)
The corporate commune!
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by Finnucane on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:07PM (#32740782)
19h century brick and concrete industrial buildings weren't built the same way. Or, obviously, to the same height. It's much easier to just gut them to the shell and then add in your modern amenities.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by zanny on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:25PM (#32741073)
It should be doable to take each floor and put a kitchen / bathrooms / storage in the middle with living space around the exterior windows with connecting hallways. On larger buildings split it in half or quarters (the only issue then becomes stair access, which is often along the edge of a building and would need a hallway from a central elevator). You might have some odd bedroom arrangements with long narrow rooms to get some outside light in each, but I don't think its unworkable.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by gbasin on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:07PM (#32740794)
Take a look at Manhattan's Financial District — seems like half of the commercial buildings have already been converted to residential. Some layouts are a bit awkward but it works fine
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by mancerayder on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:57PM (#32740652)
They did it extensively in lower Manhattan after 9/11 I thought?

The layout doesn't seem so terrible, minus the plumbing and heating concerns.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by starkd on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:05PM (#32740759)
It's like efforts to convert abandoned malls into apartments. Hard to even imagine living in a mall and the exorbitant cost to convert into something livable. Most people would rather be homeless than living in such a terrifying environment.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by anigbrowl on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @04:14PM (#32742629)
Doubt
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by anigbrowl on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @04:03PM (#32742499)
If industrial/warehouse spaces can be converted to lofts office spaces can be repurposed as well. Make the spaces available and affordable and let people figure it out as they go.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by dieselgate on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:34PM (#32741207)
Interesting point and seems pretty logical. There are a lot of warehouse/commercial spaces used for housing in places like Oakland and am sure people would want to live there (mentioned commercial spaces) if they could. Hopefully it’s safe for living, though, the Ghostship fire comes to mind specifically
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by dogman144 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:19PM (#32740973)
I think it is more difficult to impossible to make office to residential units conversions that fit a $/sqft that’s meets the market for normal housing (avoid huge square footage for cheap).

All of these buildings have a hub, bathrooms, and open ceilings for laying more pipes/wiring next to all the fiber cables.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by cronix on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:12PM (#32740864)
Sounds better than living in a tent on the street.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by pbreit on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:47PM (#32741410)
Surely there is more creativity out there than this?
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by ratchetbob on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:11PM (#32740849)
maybe it's the new ware-home? (warehouse home)

similar gluts caused a really vibrant music scene in Berlin

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by lizknope on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:47PM (#32740502)
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by JumpCrisscross on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:58PM (#32740665)
> why it is difficult

The argument in the Washingtonian hints at a policy solution. It cites a "lack windows on at least two sides" with cavernous floors making "direct natural light" rare. The "complexity of adding hundreds of bathrooms and kitchens (not to mention the accompanying venting and plumbing)" is real. "Turning rooftops into amenity spaces" is not.

So yes, these aren't going to become luxury apartments. Will they have less direct sunlight and no rooftop garden? Yes. Are those remotely necessary? Of course not. Fewer windows doesn't mean no windows; this isn't a safety issue. We will probably need code amendments. But that would require political will to legalize affordable housing.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by paxys on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:52PM (#32740575)
Sure the Bay Area housing crisis can be pretty easily solved if you throw zoning laws out of the window. Don't need to convert office space for that.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by guywithahat on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:47PM (#32740505)
The underlying issue is government preventing development of both houses and office space. If you were to build more housing in any capacity that would risk lowering housing values and people (including politicians) would lose tens or even hundreds of millions in assets. This would be incredibly unpopular and won't happen anytime soon
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by onlyrealcuzzo on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:48PM (#32740531)
> The underlying issue is government preventing development of both houses and office space.

We live in a democracy. The underlying problem of government is voters.

Most home owners (especially in The Bay) refuse to allow anyone to build anything because they see that as a threat to their home value.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by tcmart14 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:56PM (#32740629)
This guy gets it. It is NIMBYism at work. Whether it is keeping those ugly affordable apartments out of my neighborhood or wanting the housing supply restricted so I can keep my home value at peak value.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by woah on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:13PM (#32740887)
Building with no affordable units in it? Beyond the pale, the evil developers hate poor people and the units will all be bought be foreign billionaires who won't live there.

Building with x% percentage affordable units in it? Not enough affordable units and the units are not affordable enough. This will not offset the gentrification caused by the market rate units.

Building with high percentage of deeply affordable units in it? You can't just solve societal problems by throwing housing at it. The residents who will live in these deeply affordable units need social services to get their lives back on track.

Building with 100% deeply affordable units with on site social services? You can't put a homeless shelter in our neighborhood! The honest working class residents of this neighborhood have suffered enough from gentrification without having the homeless problem dumped on them too!

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by Spivak on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:13PM (#32740878)
Unless your plan is to undermine democracy I don't see how you can really fix this. With some exception, the people who decide the rules for what is and isn't allowed to be built in an area are the people who live there. I can be mad all I want that a city/township doesn't want to provide me the kind of housing I want but it would be wrong to force them.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by suoduandao2 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:52PM (#32741507)
I think it was one of the US founding fathers that said, "The primary responsibility of a democracy is the education of its citizenry".

It sounds like Bay area residents are working against their own interests (home values) by reducing housing supply, thereby making their city so unlivable that home values will collapse anyway. Getting people to see the problem and vote accordingly may be difficult, but it doesn't seem completely impossible.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by colinmhayes on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @07:19PM (#32744424)
DOesn't have to be this way. NIMBYism is a failure of hyperlocal politics where the population looks out for their own interests at the expense of everyone who wants to move there. It can be solved by higher level governments banning restrictive zoning. California has already begun that process with the mandatory duplex zoning.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by ErikVandeWater on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:00PM (#32740686)
> We live in a democracy. The underlying problem of government is voters.

Pretty sure dictatorships have the same problem with improper zoning.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by JumpCrisscross on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:03PM (#32740738)
> Pretty sure dictatorships have the same problem with improper zoning

I can't find it now, but there was a study measuring the straightness of the road between capitals and their airports. The straighter the road, the more authoritarian the regime that built it.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by treeman79 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:04PM (#32740751)
See China and 3 gorge dams
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by innagadadavida on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:28PM (#32741110)
Agree, but will never ever happen thanks to commercial RE mafia errrr lobby... Most of the commercial RE is vacant but still somehow get tax breaks and they also keep the rents very inflated. I don't buy this argument of "this is not fit to be a home" - neither are the streets, parks and sidewalks. The commercial RE mafia err the lobby is very powerful and they will protect their interests no matter what. These spaces are already up to code for fire and habitability. They have bathrooms. All you need to do is put more bathrooms and have small 10x10 rooms like they have in Japan with a bed, coat hanger, table and chair. This is just temporary to house the homeless and get them off the streets. Give preference to folks that have a job. To make is sweeter for the owners, the city can keep the tax breaks that they already get for keeping the place vacant and get rid of all other tax breaks given to the commercial RE folks.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by pessimizer on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:41PM (#32741308)
> I don't buy this argument of "this is not fit to be a home" - neither are the streets, parks and sidewalks.

Are you proposing that the city rent out licenses to live in the streets, parks and sidewalks, or are you just pooh-poohing the entire idea of housing standards? How do you feel about food standards?

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by innagadadavida on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @09:52PM (#32745502)
I’m proposing new standards to house the homeless who sleep on the streets. Specifically if a building is empty and already fit for humans to occupy, it should be ok to put some beds there and allow people to be moved from the streets.

This post is not about food.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by foobiekr on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:46PM (#32741389)
The real solution to the housing crisis in the bay area is to shift the center of jobs to the south - san jose. There is more land there, the city is willing to build highrises, and so on. The "crisis" is because people went from a focus on the already-crowded peninsula to the ultra-limited-space SF.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by 121789 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:43PM (#32740452)
From my understanding, it’s just like a legacy code base. It is just easier/cheaper to start from scratch than converting the entire thing a piece at a time.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by nemo44x on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:02PM (#32740714)
That's mainly how renovations go. Just easier to have the demo team demo and then have the trades come in and do their thing. Working around existing infrastructure and integrating with it is unpredictable and messy. Not to mention, once you touch something you have to bring it up to code so best to leave it alone or replace it entirely.

I did a renovation once where the idea was to preserve a few of the old wood windows that would be lost due to the nature of the renovation. The original idea was to reuse them and move them into the new renovated space and install them. Turned out it was going to cost more to carefully remove them, fit them, etc than just buying the highest end Marvin windows. So new windows were purchased and the old ones are used for parts now.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by GekkePrutser on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:01PM (#32740705)
Cost isn't the only thing. Tearing down and rebuilding is probably much slower than conversion.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by asveikau on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:11PM (#32740854)
During the summer I heard a KQED segment of some prominent examples of this from SF and why it's very expensive to do, rare to be able to pull off. Maybe it was this one: https://www.kqed.org/forum/2010101889483/what-would-it-take-...

Just to pick one example out of a hat, the discussion of elevators was one that made an impression on me. They said the allocation of elevators for residential vs office space is very different, and in some SF examples they had to put in entirely new elevators and staircases.

Seems there's lots of these things you wouldn't think about unless you're in that industry...

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by hollywood_court on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:41PM (#32740418)
Those commercial spaces make it incredibly easy to build them however you like. The access to plumbing and electrical would make it simple to convert them into small dwellings.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by yodon on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:49PM (#32740535)
Modern office buildings only have plumbing available in the center of the building. The flooring is designed to function as a highly efficient membrane. If you start punching holes in the flooring to place plumbing and toilets away from the central core you weaken the floor membrane to the point where it loses the required structural integrity. If you try to build raised flooring to provide space for the plumbing the cost of the raised flooring becomes prohibitive.

For most large modern office buildings it is cheaper to take them down and build new than to try to retrofit them for residential use.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by hollywood_court on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:57PM (#32740647)
Perhaps we’re each familiar with different codes or perhaps they do things differently where you are?

I spent 4 years as a commercial superintendent on various projects in the Caribbean, Dubai, and the DFW.

None of those projects would have any difficulty adding plumbing wherever they wish.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by hn_version_0023 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:54PM (#32740601)
Every place I've ever lived had plumbing in the walls. Now, it also had it in the floors, so your point is well taken. But I seriously doubt that a central plumbing stack is a serious holdup on plumbing out an entire floor.

Then again, I don't have any real experience, so I'm very much being optimistic here without actual hands-on knowledge. I could be very wrong, and would love to hear why!

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by tcmart14 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:58PM (#32740668)
So, this is me reaching back aways in memory. Walls with plumbing through them are held to different standards to other walls. Walls with plumbing use 2 by 6s. Builders and architects try to optimize by making as few walls as possible walls with plumbing because they are more expensive. Your regular walls use 2 by 4s.

So yes, some walls have plumbing running through them, but not all. Any architect and contractor will try to optimize cost by having as few walls as possible with plumbing. Which is why in some apartments, neighboring bathrooms in units will be close or share some wall space.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by yamtaddle on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:23PM (#32741037)
I've never seen a wall framed with 2x6s because it had plumbing in it. It's all 2x4 regardless, here—you almost never see a 2x6 wall. Is that a California thing?
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by telotortium on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @03:57PM (#32742433)
The most common example is a wall with a toilet drainpipe. In the US, that requires a 3" inner diameter pipe - the outer diameter is 3.5", which is exactly the same as the space inside a 2x4 wall, but if you need any fittings, it won't fit, and even if you don't, the likelihood of being pierced by nails is too high when the pipe is right against the drywall. If you have a single-story house, there would be no need for such a drainpipe, so this is primarily an issue in multi-story buildings. Sometimes there's a central chase that contains these pipes (as well as HVAC ducting), but unless all your bathrooms surround that central chase, you'll need a 2x6 wall somewhere.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by tcmart14 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:59PM (#32741614)
As far as I know, no. I learned about this when I lived in North Carolina. The house I grew up in had 2x6 wet walls with all other walls being 2x4.

It could be state or local building codes based. Here is a mention of it from a city in Illinois. But it definitely isn't just a California thing.

https://elmhurst.org/DocumentCenter/View/1826/Plumbing-Requi...

https://www.reference.com/world-view/standard-wall-thickness...

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by jjav on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @05:08PM (#32743230)
> I've never seen a wall framed with 2x6s because it had plumbing in it. It's all 2x4 regardless, here—you almost never see a 2x6 wall. Is that a California thing?

My California home is all 2x4s everywhere and there's plenty of plumbing in most walls.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by pessimizer on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:10PM (#32740837)
> Every place I've ever lived had plumbing in the walls.

In every wall and under every floor? How many sinks did you have?

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by hn_version_0023 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @06:28PM (#32744033)
Sorry, I wasn’t clear. Every house had plumbing in the walls & under the floor, but not in every wall. Normal houses, not.. a showroom for fountains!
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by mancerayder on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:59PM (#32740675)
I see plumbing exposed in the ceiling in some of the cool fancy new lofts that were converted from offices (in NYC).
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by SoftTalker on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:11PM (#32740856)
Yeah but your ceiling is the next level's floor. If drilling a 4" hole in the floor/ceiling to accomodate a toilet drain is too damaging to the structural integrity (not sure I believe that, but I'm not an engineer) then it's a non-starter.

Maybe you could build the bathrooms and kitchens along partition walls that have space behind them, so pipes could run above the floor, between walls, to the building core where all the main plumbing was designed to be.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by quickthrowman on Wednesday September 07, 2022 @02:36AM (#32747202)
> Yeah but your ceiling is the next level's floor. If drilling a 4" hole in the floor/ceiling to accomodate a toilet drain is too damaging to the structural integrity (not sure I believe that, but I'm not an engineer) then it's a non-starter.

It isn’t, it’s called core drilling and it’s extensively used in commercial buildings with concrete decks for electrical conduits, electrical poke-thru devices, plumbing pipes, hot water/chilled water piping for HVAC, data cable sleeves, fire sprinkler piping, etc.

A typical commercial building floor is concrete in a metal pan that has tensioned cables in the concrete to reinforce it. A few holes aren’t going to ruin the structural integrity. A ground penetrating radar scan should be performed prior to drilling to avoid cutting the cables, if you cut one of those, then the structural integrity is affected and repairs get expensive.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by hollywood_court on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:24PM (#32741061)
A 4" or 6" hole won't be a problem. In fact, if you go to any commercial project you will probably find more than a few holes that shouldn't have been drilled because there was an over eager mechanical employee or someone who could not read plans properly. Those holes are often just covered up.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by chrisseaton on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:05PM (#32740753)
They’re doing this in the UK, and there’s something seriously dystopian about the space it ends up creating somehow. I’m sure it’s better than nothing, but it’s not ideal.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by cjrp on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:03PM (#32740725)
They started promoting this in the UK in ~2013 when the planning laws were relaxed[0]. The early conversions were pretty poor I think; badly-sized and without enough natural light.

[0] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/planning-measures-will-ma...

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by niffydroid on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:59PM (#32740681)
Where I live in the UK, they've converted multiple office blocks to student accommodation. They are also tearing down block of flats due to other structure issues. Generally it's easier to build housing on green field rather than brown sites due to contamination etc. Once you convert the office to housing, when you need office space you'll have to build it somewhere
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by coryfklein on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @05:20PM (#32743340)
What kind of imaginary universe would allow for converting downtown SF office space into residential, but not let you simply build new houses? Both are impossible for the same reason, doing just about anything in SF is impossible.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by evr1isnxprt on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:58PM (#32740664)
But doing reasonable things without deference to “how things have always worked in our society” is unconscionable.

Think of the loss of figurative identity a minority of landlords might incur!

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by downrightmike on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:34PM (#32740328)
The only way SF will be fixed is if there is massive earthquake to take care of all the nimby concerns. Can't be concerned and stop construction if you don't have a back yard anymore.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by orangepurple on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:42PM (#32740433)
Blockbusting is a "thing" as well
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by treeman79 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:03PM (#32740732)
Not again… last time was such a mess.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by downrightmike on Wednesday September 07, 2022 @06:29PM (#32757971)
Might get a few covers of this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XoC_Kvel_vQ
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by coding123 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:43PM (#32740450)
People in SF have backyards? I can see NIMBY as a concern in the rest of the bay area, but SF, it's already stacked housing.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by jeffbee on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:45PM (#32740472)
Nope. On an area-weighted basis most of SF is wasted on detached single-family homes. https://www.google.com/maps/@37.7470676,-122.4914956,314m/da...
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by FartyMcFarter on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:55PM (#32740617)
Why "wasted" ? Does everyone need to live with the least amount of space possible?
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by abawany on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @08:43PM (#32745038)
Plus one thing that gets forgotten in dense housing is that most of them are infested (1) with HOAs (home owner associations) and associated 'management companies' that work hard to suck up the residents hard-earned funds. They, like political systems that don't have mandatory voting, take advantage of resident indifference to perpetuate astounding pilfering, malpractice, and incompetence. Most newer single family homes are also infested with these parasites so you are never safe but they almost seem to be mandatory in higher density housing; the best reason I can think of why newer homes have these is so the builder can milk the hapless buyers one last time as they usually maintain complete control of the HOA while the project is in the building phase. I pine for the old-school townhomes that were not thus infested - I suppose it is too much to hope that builders will build neighborhoods without encumbering them with this atrocity.

1: I use this term deliberately and with intention plus restraint, having suffered through these for years now. I hope you never experience the misery that is an HOA.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by 14 on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @03:00PM (#32741638)
Even in a single family detached home my last neighbor was a nightmare. He was a drunk and would be loud and throw bottles into my yard and start arguments any time anyone said anything. He was a renter so eventually he got into bad terms with his landlord and she booted him. I would dread the thought of loving even closer to someone. At least I had a fence and some concept of space from him. I could only imagine the harassment living wall to wall with this guy. For me single family detached homes are not wasted space but the minimum people should strive for.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by jeffbee on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:00PM (#32740693)
There is a large difference between a preference and a mandate. The city of San Francisco requires this development pattern. It is not known whether the owners prefer it or not. The existence of pre-down-zoning apartment buildings in this area of town suggests that the preference is not universal.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by lokar on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:10PM (#32740826)
The majority of voters and neighborhood groups strongly prefer the current policy.

Prevent new housing and complain about prices is the dominant position. And elected officials comply. Democracy is functioning.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by lokar on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:07PM (#32740793)
They don't. But if you want only detached single family homes you don't get to complain about prices.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by JumpCrisscross on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:15PM (#32740914)
> if you want only detached single family homes you don't get to complain about prices

Or about a collapsing tax base when stuff like a commercial real estate collapse occur.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by echelon on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:15PM (#32740908)
Those with the homes are not the ones complaining.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by lokar on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:18PM (#32740957)
But they are! It's truly bizarre. Somehow the accepted narrative is that prices are high because greedy developers focus only on luxury condos.

I often see new buildings criticized because they will raise the average rent in the area. And people accept that argument. Think about that for a moment.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by zdragnar on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:39PM (#32741287)
It is what happened in several neighborhoods that I used to live in or work near.

New construction was expensive, so they geared the apartments towards the upper end of the market. Rents at existing places didn't go down; if anything, it gave them an incentive to go up since they wouldn't be the most expensive place anymore if they did.

Loans and what not put a price floor on the rents of new units; given how hard it is to evict bad tenants (especially with the current backlog), and how hard it is to bring prices back up in rent controlled cities, they're just as well off leaving units empty at full price as they are renting below cost just to stop the bleed.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by jdkee on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @01:57PM (#32740651)
Americans overwhelmingly prefer single-family detached homes when given other options. How is choosing a higher-quality of life option “wasted”?
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by JumpCrisscross on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:02PM (#32740722)
> Americans overwhelmingly prefer single-family detached homes when given other options. How is choosing a higher-quality of life option “wasted”?

It's not. But it's wasteful in an urban core, where that lack of density forgoes real economic opportunity. It also creates an easily-identified cause for the lack of housing supply.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by pessimizer on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:39PM (#32741271)
> that lack of density forgoes real economic opportunity.

Which is why SF is so poor and underdeveloped.

> It also creates an easily-identified cause for the lack of housing supply.

An easily identified excuse. Now do suburban Tennessee.

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by smcl on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @03:21PM (#32741947)
> Which is why SF is so poor and underdeveloped.

No, it's one reason why some US cities are becoming increasingly unlivable for anyone outside the upper-middle class - those who sell your groceries, make your lunch or deliver your packages (to name only a handful of occupations).

> An easily identified excuse. Now do suburban Tennessee.

Is suburban Tennessee an urban core?

Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by smcl on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:08PM (#32740797)
I think if people were given the choice - particularly somewhere like San Francisco - they'd would much prefer to live in an apartment they could reasonably afford vs a detached home they could only afford if they travelled back in time 30+ years.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by pessimizer on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:36PM (#32741233)
They're given the choice, which is overwhelmingly taken by 99.9% of the people in the world, of not living in SF.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by smcl on Wednesday September 07, 2022 @01:52AM (#32746851)
Very clever, but there is more than one city in the USA and, in fact, the world. Current trend is for people to choose to move from towns and villages - where detached housing is the norm - to cities where apartments are more common.
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by polotics on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:51PM (#32741498)
higher quality of life for the many who commute more than one hour each way in and out of SF this definitely is not...
Re:San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash by thatfrenchguy on Tuesday September 06, 2022 @02:45PM (#32741380)
Yeah most historic apartment buildings in SF actually have a rear yard.