No, that is almost entirely wrong.
You can certainly disagree with their position but you should at least present it accurately. Their position is that this is a pandemic (i.e. spread too widely to eradicate this year), we have moved from the contain phase to the delay phase, and their plan is to gradually introduce measures up to full quarantine rather than jumping to lockdowns straight away. For example here are the measures planned in coming weeks:
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-14/elderly-to-be-quarantine...
If they manage to flatten the curve by timing measures, and if there is a second outbreak this winter, it may well save lives. The Chief Scientific Adviser and other experts are not horrified, they came up with the plan and are defending it, so no, ‘experts’ are not horrified, though some disagree (which is fine).
I’d be more worried living in the US right now given the mixture of denial and bluster which has been the response so far.
It will take some time before we know more about how successful these strategies are. Different countries are at different phases in the infection spread which makes comparisons unfair.
If anything, the politically easy decision would be the lockdowns which shows voters strong leaders capable of "doing something" (even if the value of this "something" is at best unclear).
Teachers are still waiting for test results and are supposed yo come back to work on Monday.
I can't really explain why there are so few casualties yet in Germany, but I think it's because many young and healthy people got infected (that's the case in Berlin, for instance), so hospitals aren't yet saturated.
I hope it stays that way, but I think we can expect much more deaths in the next days.
Germany is doing pretty well at just 9 deaths on 4.5k cases. The WHO is not the only or the best source of recommendations, nor is this over in China. I'd be very surprised if they don't see another outbreak there now that this is a pandemic it will spread to Africa for example, which has a huge no of Chinese working there who will bring it back.
I think much of Europe is a little bit like this. Germany will probably be relatively well off because German culture is fairly anti-social, Germans are typically very healthy, and the healthcare system is somewhat robust.
However, I haven't seen any sign whatsoever of a consistent or coherent response to the coronavirus. I expect whatever response eventually percolates out will be fairly rational, since german civil servants are well-paid and competent, but so far, it's been all over the place.
That has not been my experience. How could the culture of an entire country be antisocial? A nation of hostile hermits?
"I think it is very beautiful for the poor to accept their lot, to share it with the passion of Christ. I think the world is being much helped by the suffering of the poor people." --Mother Teresa
This is how some people think. It seems like there are no serious people in charge. It's going to be a catastrophe like we have never experienced.
The other issue is that of getting the leak at the wrong time. If the UK manages to partly control it, but then realises containment will fail in say November, the peak will occur at the worst possible time in winter.
By controlling the spread and aiming for summer, best medical care can be achieved given limited resources.
This logic is not true for equatorial countries such as Singapore due a lessened seasonal effect, so they should continue with their current Methodology. I suspect others will move to the UK approach once initial social distancing process inadequate (assuming they are that is).
Death and Active cases are a good measure. Both of these are under control in SK vs. still growing in Italy/Spain.
You forgot Taiwan, who is faring much better than all three of the countries you mentioned.
What mostly helped was lack of mainland Chinese people entering the country. Also Taiwanese wear their face masks religiously and are used to obeying the rules set by the government.
Finally (AFAIK) they have a very good health care system which handled the cases quickly and efficiently.
If the whole world closed their borders to China back in early Jan (and followed up with tracing and quarantine), we would be seeing this right now. Unfortunately, China was lobbying heavily against it.
Now China, being a massive exporter, has a global demand problem in addition to the local supply problem of shutting down their country for 8 weeks.
N95 masks, fitted properly, do help prevent catching the virus. For a mask to be called N95 it has to be approved by the CDC. It’s specifically designed to block >95% of airborne particles. That’s why they’re recommended for caretakers at hospitals and frontline workers dealing with infected patients. Replaced every ~3 hours and worn in combination with goggles and ear protection, they minimize the risk of infection through mucosal membranes. They have also been in short supply.
Surgical masks do not prevent catching the virus, but they help sick people not to spread it due to the mask catching some of the spray droplets when they cough / sneeze
That's not true at all. There is a reason why surgical masks are used by surgeons, but for the protection level needed by medical professionals, it is used as a part of a wider system.
Used casually it prevents much of the droplets in the air from entering your respiratory system, as well as preventing a lot of touching of the face. There are studies that indicate wearing a mask decreases virus respiratory several-fold.
The reason the N95 filters work is because when the air is sucked in, it must pass through the filter before entering your respiratory system, and that filter is designed to filter >95% of airborne particles (and often times even higher). For the surgical masks, the air just gets sucked in from the side, the path of least resistance. So the airborne particles would also just get sucked in from the side. The masks may cause changes in behavior that lead to lower infection probability (such as reminding you not to touch your face), but dipping your hand in glitter would be just as effective.
Very early on they instituted a 14-day quarantine period for anyone arriving from mainland China (later expanding this to Hong Kong and Macau), Korea, Italy and Iran. As of today, this now applies to the entire Schengen area (i.e., most of the EU).
The government has also taken over mask production (increasing capacity) and distribution (with a rationing system and an online map of where they can be bought).
Their website is very informative, with very transparent information about how many have been tested, confirmed, recovered, etc.: https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En
The strategy of UK seems valid as long as you protect the more vulnerable, which they don't do.
What is the strategy after a lock down? You go back to work? It needs only one person infected to get the virus propagating again...
The UK and devolved governments signaled on Thursday that the plan is for the vulnerable to be self-isolating for a long period; and based on the briefings to UK jornos on twitter - it'll be 16 weeks of self isolation for over 70s and those with underlying health conditions (they've not said what conditions yet) - I've seen it referred to as 'cocooning' by some.
I think the UK was doing a really good job, and has been doing a good job with this - I do think they've really misspoken when they've talked about herd immunity and have been trying to walk the term back.
You've got to bare in mind, that they aren't doing the politically easy things here. It would be easy to close the schools. Based on people I've spoken to, its going to happen soon - but I suspect they want this to happen after the over 70s and the vulnerables are into self-isolationg, and not shouldering childcare responsibilities. None of this is easy, we can't magic this virus away.
The schools issue is very tricky as a lot of NHS staff will not be able to work if their children need to stay home. I can see them going to a softly, softly approach - parents working from home will be able to keep kids out of school with no consequence and they will probably extend all the school holidays a bit as well.
I can't believe this government wants to kill off the elderly out of choice, it forms a good section of their voter base, if nothing else.
I think overall it's good long term strategy, though very risky, which is never going to be perfect, but seems to have a lot of science and rationale behind it, even if not obvious at first.
I had no choice but go out and to do my weekly food shopping yesterday. This was definitely not what I experienced at all. Families crowding out in the supermarket with small children and grandparents abound. People coughing openly, not maintaining distance and so on.
People still have no sense of urgency to change their behaviour, and this is the critical time that we need to mobilise. Any success would be down to pure luck rather than their strategy.
You will invariably have people breaking quarantine after a few weeks, especially if there is a sense of the threat subsiding.
I’m guessing that when things start getting Wuhan level crazy people will isolate anyway and they’ll get the worst of all results.
I despise the current government, and have no idea if this plan is better than alternatives, but please if you want to criticise it, do so for what it actually is, not a straw man of your own construction.
The actual plan and how to isolate the almost 20% of the population at high risk is not outlined here or anywhere I've seen. If you know (or anyone in the government knows) what it is, please provide a description or link. I've only seen hope... and undefined "measures".
The idea that a "second wave" can even be avoided or that infection prevents reinfection is not known. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidem...
The U.K.’s Coronavirus ‘Herd Immunity’ Debacle. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/coronavir...
So, _even if_ you ascribe to the current UK government a conspiracy-esque, cold as nails approach to just effectively _murder whole boatloads of older folks_, it doesn't actually make sense: Who would they be so cold as to just casually acquiesce to a solution that results in a lot of death, but they are still human enough to care about the country first and are willing to sacrifice the electoral future of their party?
I'm on 'do not attribute to malice that which can be explained by stupidity', modifying it slightly to 'incompetence'.
Personally, I don’t think Johnson and his cronies are deliberately targeting this or that group. They just don’t care. They are scared like everyone else, and are prioritizing the survival of their immediate circles and their social status - i.e. they keep the economy working, keep an appearance of order, and ensure people they care about are “cocooned”, ready to come out when the worst is over. That is their priority. Working-class lives are not priority, that’s all. Health-service capacity woes are relatively unimportant, because people “who matter” will be prioritized anyway.
If they go to full-lockdown, they risk upsetting the existing social order (economy tanks even harder, unemployed people start rioting, etc). That is their worst fear; consider that we’ve had actual riots in London only a few years ago. Saving a bunch of working-class grandpas is clearly not worth the risk of upsetting the current social order, from Johnson’s position. He’d rather have a functioning elite ruling over rubbles, than risk the very own existence of such elite just to save “nobodies”. Add to it a sprinkle of academic Strangeloves, and there you are.
First, there is the best of them all you forgot to mention, Taiwan.
Second, To sum up the difference as I have posted elsewhere, it comes down to The East willing to do Social Distancing AND Wear Mask. The west simply refuse to wear mask.
Taiwan did heavy school closures but is now coming back online. Hopefully, things hold up.
1. https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/additional-pr...
But, I guess this question is just begging for all of us arm-chair quarterbacks, fear mongers and un-informed to jump in with anecdotes and opinions knowing full well that only time will tell which it is.
Personally, I think only a few things are clear.
1) Our society and government is totally unprepared.
2) This is going to be a bad year financially for most of us and a terrible year for many of the poorer among us. I just hope that we don't end up pushed yet another group into homelessness.
3) It seems like most of us don't know some really basic information about disease - like:
Q: How many died in the 2017-2018 flu season?
A: 61,000 in the US.
Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html. And, nope, that's not 61 people, not 610 or not 6100. That's right, the CDC estimates 61,000 people who died in the US alone in 1 year from the flu.
Which left me wondering why hasn't more been done to stop the spread of the flu?
How many have died from Coronavirus? A: 68 as of today in the US. 3,199 in China. 6,515 WorldWide. 3,213 in China, 1,809 in Italy. Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Time for an anecdote. My wife had a medical emergency about a month ago - before Coronavirus. The emergency room was swamped. Sick people everywhere. Some not too sick. A bunch who were really sick. The nurses were handling out masks to everyone asking them to wear them to avoid making others sick. It was crazy. I had no idea.
Why now?
drawing the infections out so that the hospital system can stay stable and thus minimizing the amount of people who die from the disease. Not to mention that there will likely be a vaccine within 12-24 months and medication approved within the next few months.
Mind you this is in addition to South Korea having ~13 hospital beds per 1000 people, compared to ~8 in Germany and 2.5(!) in the UK. This strategy in the UK to let the virus eat through the population is insane.
The long term strategies for Korea and China are the same: carefully identify new cases as they come in from outside, find their contacts, and isolate them as soon as possible. Temporarily lock down small regions on an individual basis if necessary. They've already been doing that with some new cases coming in from Italy.
That was true a day or two ago, but that's a bit outdated now: Wuhan at most has had a bare majority of total cases in the world now, and probably a minority. In any event, it'll be a minority in a few hours.
Before quarantine we had many people infected not knowing they are infected, spreading the virus around.
After a few weeks of quarantine the ones infected will be known and separated from the rest, so the virus should be stopped. That is assuming the quarantine is strict.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-si...
The success of Hong Kong and Taiwan look like extensions of the social distancing paradigm to me.
Of course, maybe UK government recognizes that the its citizens are equally incapable of effective social distancing. Whatever the case, this looks like madness.
Not nothing, the latter is what #flattenthecurve thingy is. Reducing the exponent thereby keeping the NHS load below maximum.
Being an island is definitely a contributing factor though.
Both of them have more than 5 million people so they aren't tiny either.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-care/doctors-push-trea...
Antivirals won't stop the outbreak but they could save thousands of lives.
The British Society for Immunology have also wrote an open letter of concern. They are immunologists and know about immunity.
Yes, not everybody signing is a specialist in epidemiology, but so what? The point is that a good number are -- there is no clear consensus among UK experts for the UK government's position. And among global experts, there is a clear consensus against their position.
Well there is a huge government drive to portray that this is the case right now.
Whenever that happens, it always arouses suspicion that something is not quite right.
As a group, it's hard to imagine that UK experts in Epidemiology and related fields deviates significantly from their peers globally.
On a more serious note, petitions and other methods by experts to publicly state a position isn't just about influencing government policy. It's also a political tool in the aftermath of failed policy. Just like the current panel of experts is a political tool employed by the government to justify the biases in its policy.
So I should listen to a bunch of students, astronomers and others over the Chief scientific officer and health scientist in the country? Riighht....
Or the British Society for Immunology: https://www.immunology.org/news/bsi-open-letter-government-s...
Or the two distinct open letters from UK scientists, which are now hitting 1200 signatures total: http://maths.qmul.ac.uk/~vnicosia/UK_scientists_statement_on... https://sites.google.com/view/covidopenletter/home
If you believe nobody credible opposes the UK government, you've been fed a narrative.
That's a complete strawman. You gave a letter signed by a massively padded out list of "academics" (probably intended to scare your average layman) and when pointed out that astronomers and students probably don't have much to offer right now
While that may be technically right (under some optimistic, unverified assumptions, e.g. no reinfection), it's a false dichotomy. Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea aren't under lockdown, they're stopping the spread by just having good testing and case tracking capacity, and good hygiene. And the longer things go on, the better they're getting at doing that. If things are getting out of hand, a temporary lockdown is effective (as it was in China), to get the numbers down while building up this kind of capacity. But lockdown doesn't have to last forever; China has already lifted restrictions in most cities.
The UK seems to be ignoring this, and I don't understand why. I suspect the real logic, as some government officials have outright said, is that a completely failed response would free up money for the NHS by killing off "bed blockers".
The social signalling around it is "prudent caution", in the sense that they are talking slowly and confidently while using big words. This gives some people the gut feeling that this must be the "rational" thing to do, but it's just window dressing. The plan is neither prudent nor cautious; it's recklessly endangering millions of lives. Experts in the UK are horrified; there's an hours-old petition against this with hundreds of academics already signed on [0]. The WHO has condemned it, and half the people I know studying abroad in the UK have fled the country over it.
0: http://maths.qmul.ac.uk/~vnicosia/UK_scientists_statement_on...