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Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by mulmen on Friday December 27, 2024 @11:42PM (#42528648)
> The hi-tech equipment on board was abnormal for a merchant ship and consumed more power from the ship’s generator, leading to repeated blackouts, a source familiar with the vessel who provided commercial maritime services to it as recently as seven months ago.

Am I having a stroke or is this article translated?

I'm not a Russia defender but this is comically inept if true. Why commit such brazen sabotage with a spy ship?

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by reactordev on Saturday December 28, 2024 @12:01AM (#42528731)
Ships are often balanced between providing power and consuming it. Excess power gen is wasted fuel. Excess power draw is a blackout so it’s very typical of a ships captain or owner to max out power consumption while minimizing power generation. Its a cost index.

I do this on my own sailboat with a solar power source and battery setup.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by applied_heat on Saturday December 28, 2024 @01:59AM (#42529164)
Diesel generators simply use less fuel if there is less load than the maximum.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by GenerocUsername on Saturday December 28, 2024 @02:22AM (#42529248)
But it's not perfectly linear, and as should get bigger, the incentive to optimize grows
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by bluGill on Saturday December 28, 2024 @09:19AM (#42531199)
Not exactly. A diesel engine uses less fuel at 80% load than 50%. At maximum load it uses the most fuel but in general as load increases the engine gets more efficient and so the calculations are weird.

Note that generators need to run at constant rpm to provide the correct ac frequency. Your car has gears so that it can run at lower rpm at low loads and so you won't see the same effect.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by giantrobot on Saturday December 28, 2024 @11:40AM (#42532203)
An independent diesel generator could have been loaded onto the ship as easily as the spy equipment. It was a tanker, there was plenty of room for a genset and its own fuel. Then the ship's power plant wouldn't be taxed at all.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by reactordev on Saturday December 28, 2024 @12:03PM (#42532407)
Then you have radio equipment in addition to an independent diesel generator and fuel to explain…

Yes it was a tanker. The bigger the ship doesn’t mean it has more people or more power generation like a cruise ship. A tanker has a crew of 4 plus captain, maybe?

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by giantrobot on Saturday December 28, 2024 @03:19PM (#42534255)
You've got the spying equipment to explain if boarded. An extra generator is hardly a concern. If anything an auxiliary generator can be explained as a backup/replacement for the ship's mandated backup generator.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by bluGill on Saturday December 28, 2024 @11:45AM (#42532240)
Generally the people ordering radios don't think about that. They are used to land where you have more power to the building than you could possibly use.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by mensetmanusman on Saturday December 28, 2024 @10:12AM (#42531579)
Less fuel less efficiently
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by slow_typist on Saturday December 28, 2024 @04:12AM (#42529666)
There are many parts on a ship of that size which need power and are critical for safety. That is not comparable to leisure craft.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by watt on Saturday December 28, 2024 @04:34AM (#42529765)
Thank you for your insight. Hard to believe nobody else thought of it before.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by Normal_gaussian on Saturday December 28, 2024 @05:13AM (#42529919)
Whilst basic, its a critical and valid point. It is being made on a forum where shipping, ships, and related engineering issues are not well known (at all).

It does lead to questions about how backup and failover power work on large ships. Secondary generation? Central batteries? Per device battery failover?

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by pas on Saturday December 28, 2024 @05:28AM (#42529995)
Batteries, yes. And there's an emergency generator that runs on diesel (big ships run on "bunker oil") which can be started with batteries or manually.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/_Y2VNS5TFFY (this one with a hydraulic hand pump)

https://marineengineeringonline.com/emergency-generator-on-s...

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by ein0p on Saturday December 28, 2024 @12:09AM (#42528757)
I'm having a hard time believing that "a few suitcases" of equipment would strain the generator of a large ship. There's also no way _three_ countries (one of which is a member of NATO, further straining credibility of the article) would be using the same super secret spy equipment.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by asdff on Saturday December 28, 2024 @12:22AM (#42528806)
The article said “huge portable suitcases” which in my mind went to those giant rock concert equipment suitcases with caster wheels. And then the article is talking about how these ships are ancient and in poor repair. The power was probably going on and off long before they overloaded it.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by AYBABTME on Saturday December 28, 2024 @12:31AM (#42528839)
But 20y isn't ancient, as far as I can tell?
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by dietr1ch on Saturday December 28, 2024 @02:35AM (#42529293)
I guess it's long enough for poor maintenance to let salty water do its thing. AFAIK even cars sent across the Pacific show damage when they arrive and special care is put to coat them.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by postalrat on Saturday December 28, 2024 @02:50AM (#42529350)
No. It's a clear lie.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by martin8412 on Saturday December 28, 2024 @05:10AM (#42529904)
They're called flight cases :)
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by pinewurst on Saturday December 28, 2024 @01:10AM (#42528981)
Why do you think that the Indian and Turkish monitors were working for their own countries instead of getting a mercenary bonus from Russia?
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by ein0p on Saturday December 28, 2024 @03:54AM (#42529601)
Turkish "monitors" had _their own keyboards_ if the article is to be believed. Nobody foreign would be anywhere near any real spy equipment, let alone someone from a NATO member country, whether "mercenary" or not. It just doesn't make any sense.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by _blk on Saturday December 28, 2024 @03:20AM (#42529458)
Spy devices are often of passive "listening" nature.

Is it operating an RF jammer or laser? Those things suck power.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by Terr_ on Saturday December 28, 2024 @03:27AM (#42529483)
> I'm having a hard time believing that "a few suitcases" of equipment would strain the generator of a large ship.

Perhaps it's a mistake in reporting, and the added equipment strained the local wiring/breakers of the bridge area it was installed into, causing "blackouts" that weren't ship-wide.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by 4ndrewl on Saturday December 28, 2024 @03:38AM (#42529532)
Are you having a hard time believing this _because_ of your experience in such maritime matters or _despite_ of it?
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by magicalhippo on Saturday December 28, 2024 @01:18AM (#42529013)
> Why commit such brazen sabotage with a spy ship?

That part seemed odd to me too.

Spy folks aren't the ones conducting sabotage? If one division has installed apy equipment then surely they don't want that fact plastered all over documents, so perhaps the sabotage guys just saw a suitable ship in the harbor and presuaded/replaced the crew?

Doesn't look good either way though.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by clort on Saturday December 28, 2024 @03:06AM (#42529414)
The way I read it, this is reportage from a person who worked with the ship about things which happened some months ago. There is nothing to say this equipment was still on board.

> They said no further equipment returned to the ship after it was offloaded for analysis, to their knowledge

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by magicalhippo on Saturday December 28, 2024 @03:27AM (#42529481)
Good catch, missed that bit.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by Terr_ on Saturday December 28, 2024 @02:29AM (#42529272)
> Why commit such brazen sabotage with a spy ship?

Perhaps it wasn't brazen sabotage, but incompetent attempts to attach something to the lines?

Or conflicting agendas trickling down to the same ship, where the left-hand of "go cause some mayhem" didn't know what the right-hand of "collect signals intelligence" was already doing with that asset.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by fi358 on Saturday December 28, 2024 @03:36AM (#42529520)
I don't think it was incompetent attempts to attach something to the lines. It severed 4 data data cables and electricity cable called Estlink 2. If it hadn't been stopped, it would have severed also Estlink 1 within half and hour later perhaps also Balticconnector gas pipe.

About year ago Balticconnector gas pipe was already damaged by a Chinese ship, which had been dragging the anchor for long time in a very suspicious manner:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balticconnector

And again in August several data cables were severed by a Chinese ship. According to one analysis, that time they may have dragged the anchor for 400 kilometers:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fB-vEp3wr-0

BTW, Russia seems to have for years spend time finding out the routes of sea cables and perhaps also spied them or prepared some kind of sabotage:

The global internet is powered by vast undersea cables. But they're vulnerable. https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/25/asia/internet-undersea-ca...

Ukraine war: The Russian ships accused of North Sea sabotage https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65309687

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by cinntaile on Saturday December 28, 2024 @05:19AM (#42529941)
> Russia seems to have for years spend time finding out the routes of sea cables and perhaps also spied them or prepared some kind of sabotage:

The cable positions are public info, they don't need to spend time finding out where they are.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by fi358 on Saturday December 28, 2024 @06:27AM (#42530264)
Is the exact positions public info or is it just crude positions? BTW, if the exact cable positions is public info, where is it available?
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by jabl on Saturday December 28, 2024 @08:08AM (#42530799)
What do you consider 'exact'? Approximate positions are drawn on nautical charts, so that ships don't accidentally go and try to anchor in the vicinity. Plenty accurate enough for a ship to 'accidentally' drop an anchor and drag it along the seabed for miles.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by bluGill on Saturday December 28, 2024 @09:22AM (#42531214)
I suspect the exact position is not known. The drop the cables over the side and currents make then drift on the way down.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by roenxi on Saturday December 28, 2024 @03:44AM (#42529557)
> Perhaps it wasn't brazen sabotage, but incompetent attempts to attach something to the lines?

This theory, with glorious irony, supports the idea that the cable cut was accidental.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by ajuc on Saturday December 28, 2024 @02:44AM (#42529328)
Why not? Let me remind you the Russian capital ship of the Black Sea fleet during this war had most of it's self-defense systems inactive and half of them broken and was destroyed with 2 missiles. And the only Russian carrier - Kuznetsov - is famous for sailing everywhere with tug boats in escort because its engines are broken more often than working :)

Russian fleet's second name is "comically inept".

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by cpursley on Saturday December 28, 2024 @08:17AM (#42530836)
Carriers are great at projecting power against poor people but sitting ducks against a near peer. And you probably know about the UKs recent propulsion system boondoggle…

Anyways, they just launched this very potent sub yesterday as well as several other hypersonic carrying boats this year (4 subs, 7 surface ships - all fake according to Reddit):

- https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/russian-navy-receives-fif...

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by ajuc on Saturday December 28, 2024 @11:04AM (#42531950)
Oh they are always great in the press releases :)

And it's not like the ships are badly designed. The Kuznetsov sister ship that was a casino for a while and now is Chinese works perfectly well. The problem with Russian navy is lack of maintenance, total disregard of safety and procedures, 0 fucks given about human life, uneducated, drunken crews and widespread corruption.

I recommend reading about K-429 - a nuclear submarine that sunk not once but twice. First time because it was ordered to do exercises while the hull was in maintenance. Despite protests of the crew. Second time in dock during repairs after it got recovered. Worker negligence apparently.

Fun fact - it's not the only Russian nuclear submarine that participated in 2 disasters.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by cpursley on Saturday December 28, 2024 @12:39PM (#42532700)
Where do you think those big missile barrages are coming from - Black Sea dolphins? You clearly spend too much time on reddit - sure, their carrier, Mosvka and that sub were ancient. But their recent boats are capable and pack a lot of offensive punch. One of their new corvettes could probably disable a carrier battle group. Only fools and immature people play the "the other side is incompetent and has shitty gear" game. I can assure you, the Pentagon and other Western militaries take it all very seriously.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by ajuc on Saturday December 28, 2024 @03:52PM (#42534617)
Russian navy is objectively shitty.

For one simple statistic - USA has about 2 times the number of nuclear submarines Russia has. Despite that Russia/USSR has lost 7 nuclear submarines and USA have lost 2. You cannot dismiss accident rate higher by order of magnitude as propaganda or bias.

Russian fleet is good enough to launch missiles at a country without fleet from long range. It's not good enough to do it without significant loses. It's also not good enough to do it while keeping the sea in question under control.

There's a reason Russian Black Sea fleet left Crimea and rebased to a port in occupied Georgia.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by cpursley on Saturday December 28, 2024 @05:39PM (#42535463)
The US has more than twice the population of Russia and didn't collapse in 1991 and have to crawl back from sub-Saharan Africa economic conditions, so of course America has more. And there's a reason the US Navy backed off from Houthi antishipping missile and drone range. All surface ships are sitting ducks to antishipping missiles (read about the boats the UK lost in the Falklands). In in a hot war, all of the carriers and other capital ships in the theatre would be sunk with a week, probably faster (on all sides).
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by ajuc on Saturday December 28, 2024 @05:52PM (#42535549)
USSR alone lost 5.

We can make excuses all day long, some are even true, but the hard cold facts remain - russian navy sucks.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by cpursley on Saturday December 28, 2024 @06:01PM (#42535608)
Ah, you're Polish (or Ukrainian?). Now I get it.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by int_19h on Sunday December 29, 2024 @12:45AM (#42537869)
I'm Russian, and I agree with them. It's not even exactly a secret in Russia itself. The country has always seen itself as a land empire, not a sea one. You can even see it in little things like, which parts of the armed forces are considered more "elite" compared to the common infantry (it's paratroopers in Russia, not the marines). See also Dugin with his "tellurocracy vs thalassocracy" etc. From this perspective, it makes sense that center of gravity of its military is the army, not the navy.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by JumpCrisscross on Sunday December 29, 2024 @12:33AM (#42537803)
> there's a reason the US Navy backed off from Houthi antishipping missile and drone range

Well, yes. If I can shoot you without your shooting me, that’d obviously better. Just because you have armor and defences doesn’t mean you want to always use them (or broadcast their capabilities and limitations).

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by Isinlor on Sunday December 29, 2024 @03:51AM (#42538628)
The task of Russian navy was to invade Odessa and sabotage Ukrainian grain trade. They didn't even attempt Odessa desant, because they knew it was futaile. And they failed at sabotaging Ukrainian grain trade, but not for a lack of effort.

Otherwise these ships served as missile lunchers, but even then they had to widraw to ports far away from Ukraine, because of drone attacks.

Ukraine won the naval battle at tiny fraction of the Russian navy cost.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by rasz on Saturday December 28, 2024 @03:47AM (#42529569)
When you are evil as F the brightest minds tend to disappear leaving you with yes men and idiots. As Ukrainians eloquently put it way back in 2022:

"We are very lucky they're so fucking stupid" https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tdj65n/were_very_l...

In the year of our lord 2024 russians are assaulting using Mad Max modified Ladas and push bikes, its no longer a meme! USSR stocks of armor are finally running out.

27 Oct 2024 'THE ARMOR RAN OUT - THEY WENT IN PICK-UPS. They reach the trenches and the assault ends.' - Combat group K-2 54th brigade https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9uy2KpKj0t8

A Russian Assault Group Riding In Pickup Trucks And Flying The Soviet Flag Got ‘Special Attention’ From Ukrainian Forces https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/12/21/a-russian-a...

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by amelius on Saturday December 28, 2024 @12:57PM (#42532891)
They still have Mach 5 rockets that the US cannot defend against.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by dralley on Saturday December 28, 2024 @04:46PM (#42535058)
Patriot batteries have shot down every missile type that isn't an IRBM like Oreshnik, and those are closer to Mach 11 than Mach 5.

Kinzhal and Zircon have been at least semi-reliably shot down. Iskander is very reliablly shot down. The main issue is that Ukraine just doesn't have enough Patriot batteries to defend the whole country, so the Russians stopped shooting where the air defense is.

They also use a bunch of S-300s as ballistic missiles (a secondary capability to their primary role as air defense) but primarily against cities that don't have air defense. But they're too inaccurate and inexpensive for the Ukrainians to bother attempting to intercept even if they had enough of the appropriate air defenses.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by mountainstar on Saturday December 28, 2024 @05:34PM (#42535430)
"Patriot batteries have shot down every missile type that isn't an IRBM like Oreshnik, and those are closer to Mach 11 than Mach 5."

Keep lying lol

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by dralley on Saturday December 28, 2024 @06:16PM (#42535719)
Do you deny that Ukraine has shot down Kinzhal and Zircon?
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by an_guy on Sunday December 29, 2024 @02:58AM (#42538420)
Do you have any proof of that?
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by mopsi on Saturday December 28, 2024 @05:03PM (#42535197)
Their wonderweapons are artisanal products. That Mach 5 missile needs several days of preparations by specialists from the manufacturer before it is ready for launch. In tech terms: it doesn't scale. And such long preparation leaves ample time to destroy launch sites at any indication of preparations for an actual attack. When Russians fired one without a warhead at Ukraine, they made sure to notify the Americans in advance to avoid exactly that.

It's just a PR stunt. Notice how troll farms tried to hype doomsday scenarios, and how little traction such fears got in the actual national security circles.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by amelius on Saturday December 28, 2024 @05:11PM (#42535249)
Ok, but what if the missile gets out of the prototyping stage?
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by mopsi on Saturday December 28, 2024 @05:44PM (#42535495)
Unlikely to happen. In Russia, all the modern weapons - from Armata tanks to Su-57 stealth planes to doomsday missiles - are mocked as "multiki" (cartoons), because they don't really exist beyond a few barely functional prototypes that are paraded around on national holidays.

All the weapons actually fielded in large numbers are either directly from the Soviet era, or endless upgrades of upgrades of obsolete designs - like their T-90 tank, which still has a fatal flaw that sends turret flying when the tank gets hit. Russian weapons industry has for more than three decades consistently shown total inability to produce anything new. I'd start worrying as soon as Russia finally produced a decent car; that would be an indication that something has fundamentally changed.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by themgt on Saturday December 28, 2024 @03:48AM (#42529572)
The article is terribly written. It ends with:

The transmitting and receiving devices were used to record all radio frequencies, and upon reaching Russia were offloaded for analysis.

...

They said no further equipment returned to the ship after it was offloaded for analysis, to their knowledge, but other devices were placed on another related tanker, Swiftsea Rider.

What seems implied is that the ship was previously used for spying back in June, then the spy equipment was offloaded from the ship and it was later repurposed to cut the cables.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by slow_typist on Saturday December 28, 2024 @04:14AM (#42529676)
Yeah it’s odd. Maybe a combination of bad planning by the shady owners plus a bad electrician on board.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by newsclues on Saturday December 28, 2024 @05:05AM (#42529874)
It’s not a spy ship.

It’s a ship, that was used for spying. Not a special ship built for spying.

So it’s just an asset at sea that can be covertly used and disposed if discovered.

It’s a burner, something to use and discard when it’s no longer useful.

The spy gear is on another ship and the anchor trick can be played again

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by Hilift on Saturday December 28, 2024 @05:40AM (#42530051)
Russia has many of these types of boats. They are inexpensive. The "equipment" is portable in suitcases. There is a lot of marine traffic in the Baltic Sea. They may have thought they could do it during the holidays and move the equipment to another ship nearby without detection. Or, a Russian port is very close, perhaps they thought they could take off and make it to Russian waters before Finland intercepted them. Check out the route on marinetraffic.com. The cable is between Helsinki and Tallinn, St. Petersburg Russia (the "destination") is about 200 km away to the east.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by simonh on Saturday December 28, 2024 @07:11AM (#42530475)
I cite in evidence of Russian ineptness the entire history of their invasion of Ukraine.

Given their vast and extensive advantages at the beginning of the invasion, if they were even vaguely competent they really would have been holding a parade in Kyiv within a few months.

A competent military wouldn’t have lost their flagship, or let Ukraine counter-invade taking thousands of square kilometres of Russian territory. A competent regime wouldn’t have dismissed US warnings of an imminent terrorist attack on a specific music venue in Moscow and just let it happen.

Loading up a tanker with power hungry kit it’s not able to properly support without discussing the idea with the crew, while threatening the crew if they don’t keep quiet, is par for the course.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by llamaimperative on Saturday December 28, 2024 @07:28AM (#42530582)
It extends for literal centuries before the current Ukraine debacle. The country has been mindless lumbering brute for most of history.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by ANewFormation on Saturday December 28, 2024 @10:32AM (#42531731)
Before the invasion Ukraine had a total military force (including reserves) of 1.2 million backed by sizable numbers of highly motivated and heavily armed 'nationalist' forces. Since 2014 the West had been gradually arming Ukraine and various cities like Bakhmut were essentially fortified citadels enabling a defensive force to pose extreme resistance.

There was 0 chance Ukraine was going to just flop over. Iraq and Afghanistan were humble villages by contrast - one which we lost to, and the other which our 'victory' amounted to bombing the government then hiding out in tiny little ultra fortified 'green zones' while waving a victory flag. In both cases with the wars dragged on for decades. Now imagine if Russia had decided to jump in one of those invasions and start shipping hundreds of billions of dollars of weapons to them, providing intelligence, and so on.

Russia obviously just thought they were ambushing Ukraine and could get some agreement for them to not join NATO without a real war. Then the West decided to get involved, similarly thinking they were ambushing Russia and that the first sight of HIMARS or a Panther tank would send the Russian army scattering.

Everybody was wrong, so we got a real war that nobody wanted.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by yakshaving_jgt on Saturday December 28, 2024 @11:07AM (#42531963)
The russians weren't looking for an agreement.

They were looking to kill Zelensky and control the entire country.

In fact, they still are.

It was a war from the beginning.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by The_Colonel on Saturday December 28, 2024 @04:04PM (#42534718)
> There was 0 chance Ukraine was going to just flop over.

That's a huge hindsight bias. Even the most optimistic scenarios from various secret services / think tanks predicted only weeks / few months of resistance at the most. If you read Ukrainian accounts, most weren't very optimistic either. You can also read up how many commanders in the south defected - having more such defectors could flip the war quite quickly. The question of whether to defect or not (or simply run) is something which many did on the spot based on their personal circumstances and outlook, it's extremely difficult to predict.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by Sammi on Saturday December 28, 2024 @06:16PM (#42535720)
Most Ukrainians didn't defect. Most Ukrainians knew then what we all know now. No hindsight bias here.

In fact there were even analysts outside Ukraine that did listen to Ukrainians and who also knew what was going on.

Here you can listen to Anders Puck Nielsen explain in jan 2022 what we all understand now, that it would be a large and terrible war: https://youtu.be/23JYPb_jHpg?si=6lMedJpEkeuPRuhv https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=krhmeUkfhu4

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by belorn on Saturday December 28, 2024 @09:20PM (#42536848)
There was no news article where I lived (or international) that predicted that resistance would only last weeks or months. Those that did make any prediction about the length of the war pointed towards modern wars like those in the middle east, which demonstrated that modern wars do not end suddenly regardless of what progress either side makes. As long as people have access to weapons there will be enough resistance to make an area a constant war zone.

In the past you needed large armies standing in a line, and tanks to crush that line. When armies made enough progress the remaining soldiers either surrender or ran away. Today you can have a handful people operating a drone to sink a warship, or fire a missile against a plane, or just planting random explosives and mines. They get killed and a new group pop up elsewhere doing the exact same thing. The only method to actually win by eliminating resistance becomes burning down every building and killing every person who used to live there, which obviously is immoral and hurts military moral, takes a lot of time, a lot of resources and people, and diplomatic resources. For a country like Ukraine or Russia it would take decades or centuries.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by The_Colonel on Saturday December 28, 2024 @11:41PM (#42537575)
> There was no news article where I lived (or international) that predicted that resistance would only last weeks or months.

Then you must have not been paying attention.

A summary of those failed predictions: https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-invasion-predictions-...

It's a roughly equal part of underestimating Ukrainians and overestimating Russians.

> Those that did make any prediction about the length of the war pointed towards modern wars like those in the middle east, which demonstrated that modern wars do not end suddenly regardless of what progress either side makes.

You mean like Crimea where the resistance never died down and was an active battlefield with daily activity of partisan groups? /s

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by ANewFormation on Sunday December 29, 2024 @07:24AM (#42539502)
That article offers extremely little in the way of citations (and lots in the way of unsourced speculation), and that's probably because the original quote about Kyiv falling in days didn't come from Russian political or military leaders, but from Mark Milley [1] - the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

After that claim was demonstrated to be clearly idiotic, the propaganda machine then began subtly (and then not so subtly) suggesting it was actually Russia that was making such claims.

But that was always plainly absurd. The last normal war Russia had was against Chechnya, another country that was tiny and practically unequipped relative to Ukraine, yet that war lasted a decade and had tens of thousands of deaths with a huge culture of great music [2] perpetually reminding people how brutal that war truly was.

You won't find a single source from a Russian political/military leader saying it'd be short, because they all knew it wouldn't be if there wasn't a quick agreement reached. The one quote people were able to find was from some television personality in some segment. But I hope Russia(ns) aren't citing e.g. Rachel Maddow to get insight into American positions on issues !

[1] - https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mark-milley-ukraine-war-pre...

[2] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8e5GDbkS3Gw

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by tuukkah on Sunday December 29, 2024 @09:07AM (#42540026)
The point isn't what Russia said. The point is Russia didn't prepare for a war longer than a few weeks. After the initial attacks stalled, they've had to improvise logistics, drafts, equipment, moving in troops from other directions, making deals with Iran and North Korea, long-term economic solutions to sanctions, etc.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by kikimora on Sunday December 29, 2024 @12:00PM (#42541125)
If you trust anonymous in the Internet then I’ll tell you I saw many such predictions in Russian and Western media.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by The_Colonel on Monday December 30, 2024 @01:16AM (#42546968)
My original comment was mainly about the western agencies / think tanks making such predictions. Russians were denying the invasion till it actually began, so there aren't any public statements, of course.

But what Russians expected can be inferred from what they did - their initial Kyiv offensive, Hostomel landing, it's a clear attempt at a decapitation strike. It's actually a carbon copy of the 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia which fell without a fight which is apparently what Russians expected here as well.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by ANewFormation on Monday December 30, 2024 @08:36AM (#42549131)
I completely agree that was an attempted decapitation strike, but where we may disagree is that I don't think they were banking on it succeeding - but it was rather just a high risk, high reward play. For instance they also tried something similar in the first Chechen War, and it failed there as well.

But in this case I'd emphasize that even if that was successful they would have known it would be far from the end of the war. The 'nationalist units' and at least some regular forces would resist, the West would predictably back them endlessly (and probably bring in proxy forces) and the most likely scenario (absent a quick settlement) would be something like Afghanistan 2.0.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by The_Colonel on Thursday January 02, 2025 @12:04AM (#42571787)
> The 'nationalist units' and at least some regular forces would resist

While a great talking point in Russian circles, nationalist units did not represent a significant chunk of Ukrainian forces in 2022. They played a role in the power vacuum of 2014, but not by 2022.

Regular forces were concentrated in the east. If Russia took Kyiv, they'd effectively cut off any supply routes from the West. The resistance would be futile. Remember again how forces in Crimea resisted forever?

> and probably bring in proxy forces

Could you expand on this? Where, who ... how?

> and the most likely scenario (absent a quick settlement) would be something like Afghanistan 2.0.

Most likely based on what? Where do all these fighters hide? Are the Ukrainian plains as good for hiding and launching covert attacks as Afghanistan caves?

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by int_19h on Sunday December 29, 2024 @12:38AM (#42537832)
Putin assumed that those 1.2 million are just "forcibly separated brothers" that will if not support the "reunification" outright, then at least refuse to fight for a country they don't believe is real. Ukrainian nationalists before the war were presented in Russian agitprop as an extremist minority holding the rest of the country hostage.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by dspillett on Saturday December 28, 2024 @07:12AM (#42530479)
> but this is comically inept if true

Comically inept does sometimes seem to be the country's MO, due to corruption and miscommunication (the latter often deliberate to hide the former) between the various levels of control. People get away with it for quite some time, until a mistake/accident too big to successfully cover up occurs or there is other reason for an audit from above, at which point some are removed from their positions (often to particularly unpleasant penal arrangements, or perhaps being moved on via a defenestration "accident", as an example to others) and things improve for a while. This is often the case in other autocratic or anocratic countries too, but it seems particularly endemic in Russia (perhaps due to its wide geographic spread?).

> Why commit such brazen sabotage with a spy ship?

As others have said, other reasons of the article are that the ship has recently been used as a ship for spying, but equipment relating to that was not present at the time of the sabotage mission it was intercepted during.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by panarky on Sunday December 29, 2024 @12:12AM (#42537705)
When dissidents and journalists "fall out of windows", and when enemies of the state drink polonium tea, the obviousness isn't due to comic ineptness.

It's obvious for a reason.

They want the world to know.

The obviousness isn't ineptness, it's a brazen display of power.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by dspillett on Sunday December 29, 2024 @06:12AM (#42539250)
I'm not suggesting the ineptness is present at the top or in key organs of the system, particularly parts responsible for enforcement and espionage.

It naturally forms in the wider system through layers of control with people at each point doing the minimum required (well, the minimum they think that they can get away with) and creaming off any remaining resources.

The obviousness of reactions from the near top when enacted, against those that are too close to failures or deliberately act against the system, while often difficult to directly link to the top, yes, is very deliberate, and generally not ineptly executed.

In fact the individuals further down are often not really inept: they are can very good at doing what must be done with what little resource filters down while benefiting from what they can cream off, passing actual responsibility downwards, and keeping apparent responsibility for themselves (and their circles) when things go well. The comical ineptness is an emergent behaviour of the overall system that results from these behaviours.

This is in stark contrast to some other regimes, for instance the UK under BoJo the Clown and his next couple of replacements where the ineptitude was at times frighteningly and obviously present at and near the top, or over the longer term things like the post office scandal & cover-up which has dragged on for so long through an apparent endemic immorality rather than localised manipulation at each level.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by benterix on Monday December 30, 2024 @11:29AM (#42550774)
> it's a brazen display of power.

It's a brazen display of what they themselves consider power and the rest of the world consider stupidity.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by ghjfrdghibt on Saturday December 28, 2024 @07:26AM (#42530573)
You need to read both Red Notice, and Freezing Order by Bill Browder. Truly eye opening, and in line with this type of thing.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by user432678 on Sunday December 29, 2024 @06:18AM (#42539262)
Got me interested, if you had time only for one, which one of two would you recommend?
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by lenkite on Saturday December 28, 2024 @07:55AM (#42530737)
> Why commit such brazen sabotage with a spy ship?

Sorry, but I am just unconvinced. Let's see whether the story is "revised" after a few weeks/months. There is also a massive propaganda war sponsored with billions of dollars by the U.S.

As a citizen of a non-NATO nation, I have lost all faith in the media of NATO nations, esp after the Nordstream sabotage was blamed on Russia with extraordinary outrage against Russia demonstrated everywhere in the media and esp here on HN. Even used as justification for new sanctions. The facts were then slowly transformed over time. No one bothered to discuss the incident later and investigations were all curtailed - hell, the Polish prime minister even said to stop the investigation and keep quiet about it.

Russia would simply have no logical reason to deliberately do this because it gives NATO all the casus belli to break the long standing, centuries-old naval treaties here regarding free ships. The overwhelming advantage goes to NATO nations - all the disadvantage goes to Russia for any sabotage carried out here.

Sure if it turns out that Russia is directly responsible through deliberate intent of sabotage, ban Russian shipping here by all means. But I am willing to bet that the "facts" regarding this incident will be revised over time. We have already seen this happen in the past.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by nobunaga on Saturday December 28, 2024 @08:47AM (#42531014)
Well done comrad. Continue your misinformation efforts. You will be awarded handsomely when you return to Moscow.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by lenkite on Saturday December 28, 2024 @08:52AM (#42531042)
Aaah..the usual brain-dead and brain-washed response. Eyerolling and tiresome quips about Putin and Moscow. Never been to Moscow nor Russia and I don't have their Visa, so not sure how I can even "return" to it.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by nobunaga on Saturday December 28, 2024 @08:56AM (#42531067)
Are you referring to your statement about how russia is innocent and is being targeted for no reason since they never invaded another country and there are many sources for their attempts at sabotage and even assasinations, as braindead? Yes, you are indeed speaking braindead comments. Just re-read what you wrote, and then think about the events of the last 2 years. Try harder comrad.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by lenkite on Saturday December 28, 2024 @09:04AM (#42531120)
No such statements/claims were made. Congratulations sir! You have won an award at the "Strawman Argument". Just re-read what you wrote and then refresh your knowledge of basic logical fallacies. Try harder at reading comprehension.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by phatfish on Saturday December 28, 2024 @10:24AM (#42531681)
Polite concern, check.

Um, it's the US causing all the problems ACTUALLY, check.

Lost faith in western media, check.

It can't be Russia because it doesn't make sense guys! Check.

"Time will tell", check.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by ttkk on Saturday December 28, 2024 @10:29AM (#42531716)
You are either just clueless or Russian troll and that is that. For the first point you can do something.

Living next to Russia means being target of bullying for whatever reason. Now the probable main reason was Estonia getting rid of electricity imports from Russia within coming months.

And if a ship that left from St. Peterburg has anchor chain down when Finnish Border Guard tells it to get it up and anchor is missing, that is as smoking gun as it can get in the crime scene.

This is only part one and the Putinist media just started their shit-throwing against Finland's Pirate Tsuhnas (namecalling for Finns)

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by lm28469 on Saturday December 28, 2024 @08:14AM (#42530829)
> I'm not a Russia defender but this is comically inept if true.

I mean it's the 1000+ day of the 3 day special military operation, we've seen Russians with ww2 era rifles and gear, ww2 era tanks, &c. Being inept is the only thing the Russian army seems to achieve consistently.

Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by sandworm101 on Saturday December 28, 2024 @08:24AM (#42530881)
Power on a ship isn't like power on land. It may be that this gear was all on one phase of the 3-phase generator output, which would make sense if this was radio equipment. Overloading a particular phase/circuit with unplanned-for equipment can quickly trip switches and other safety system, cascading into a blackout.
Re:Cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland 'was loaded with s... by belorn on Saturday December 28, 2024 @10:55AM (#42531870)
The strategy of the shadow fleet has historically been about using disposable and cheap commercial ships for dual purpose of military and economical operations, with plausible deniability as a bonus.

Ducktaping spy equipment onto barely operating merchant ships fits perfectly for this purpose. It is the peace time version of the merchant raider.