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Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by fnordpiglet on Saturday May 27, 2023 @04:21PM (#36097919)
I for one am sick of all the covid related back biting and second guessing. There was no way a major pandemic was going to be anything but an unmitigated natural disaster of global proportions. Policies chosen as “least bad” are still bad. Maybe they were worse, maybe they were just less bad. No one sold them as good. Now the job of science is to pick out what was efficacious and what was worse. But the moaning about policies that were unpleasant to my mind ignores the fact that it was a global natural disaster and it was never going to be ok, or pleasant, or not inconvenience you. For some people the policies were worse than the disease. For millions that didn’t die, they were better. As a species I wish we could put down our gripes and figure out how to make the next time less bad, but we need to realize even then it’s going to be a global natural disaster and those might interfere with your preferred daily routine.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by was_a_dev on Saturday May 27, 2023 @04:29PM (#36097995)
I agree. I was thinking today how during covid, my country was short of PPE for doctors and nurses. As were many countries

One policy failing in this instance, was our reduction of stockpiled PPE several years earlier.

Since COVID, there has been no discusion or suggestion of how to prepare better for next time

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by lazide on Saturday May 27, 2023 @04:57PM (#36098236)
We likely won’t see any real retrospectives for another 5-10 years. It’s still too raw and difficult to process the reality, as you can see in some of the other responses.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by ls612 on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:35PM (#36098583)
We realistically won’t see a good retrospective until the political leaders in 2020 have exited the political scene. Until then reactions to Covid stuff will just be a culture war reflex response of self-preservation.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by TechBro8615 on Saturday May 27, 2023 @06:08PM (#36098865)
There are many covid counterfactuals we'll never know the answer to, but personally, I wish we could see the timeline where Trump won the election. Would the vaccination positions have been completely flipped? Pre-election you had democrat leaders saying things like "I wouldn't take a Trump vaccine." If we could only see that play out, I think it would expose how arbitrary much of the US political division really is.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by ls612 on Saturday May 27, 2023 @06:11PM (#36098900)
Or similarly what if Clinton wins in 2016, and gets stuck with the mess and cratering economy in her re-election campaign.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by daveguy on Saturday May 27, 2023 @06:46PM (#36099168)
This seems very inconsistent with what I remember. "I wouldn't take a trump vaccine" is completely incongruent with the fact that the vast majority of "the gubment can't make me wear a mask or take a vaccine" were in the middle of trump country. Trump got boo'd for promoting the vaccine after he lost. They would have been just as anti-gubment regardless. There was a brief period of time I heard "I wouldn't take a trump vaccine", but that was about a month or two before the election. It completely disappeared as soon as it was obvious that the FDA wasn't going to let trump circumvent basic safety controls to push a vaccine in 6 months (before the election) instead of 12 months (after the election).
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by TMWNN on Saturday May 27, 2023 @09:25PM (#36100213)
>>re-election you had democrat leaders saying things like "I wouldn't take a Trump vaccine."

>This seems very inconsistent with what I remember.

Biden, Harris, and Pelosi all saying they won't trust any Trump vaccine <https://www.newsweek.com/anti-vaccine-covid-trust-skepticism...>

>There was a brief period of time I heard "I wouldn't take a trump vaccine", but that was about a month or two before the election.

Ah, this is you doing some searching, realizing that TechBro8615 is right, and trying to justify what you had already written.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by lazide on Sunday May 28, 2023 @11:20AM (#36104777)
There was a period of time where the political rhetoric was definitely going in that direction. If I remember correctly, it was when Trump was trying to get it fast tracked before the election and people were freaking out about that. Which, given the circumstances, is kind of understandable.

Personally, I read the study data for it (and for some of the other 150+ vaccines that had been attempted), and figured I'd go for it when it was available. Which took forever.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by skinnymuch on Sunday May 28, 2023 @01:41PM (#36106118)
The US partisan divide, yes. Actual US political division between left and right wing politics is around and was not going to change for people on the left (not just socially on the left or in the US bubble of how many confuse liberalism and leftism).
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by tstrimple on Sunday May 28, 2023 @02:59PM (#36106732)
I find it curious that you have to take out of context statements to paint this as “both sides”. The Democratic Party position on vaccines didn’t change. There was a lack of trust in Trump not vaccines or science. This would be much more obvious if you’d use an actual quote instead of paraphrasing to obfuscate the meaning.

"Well, I think that's going to be an issue for all of us. I will say that I would not trust Donald Trump. And it would have to be a credible source of information that talks about the efficacy and the reliability of whatever he's talking about. I will not take his word for it. He wants us to inject bleach. I — no, I will not take his word."

"If the public health professionals, if Dr. Fauci, if the doctors tell us that we should take it, I’ll be the first in line to take it. Absolutely. But if Donald Trump tells us that we should take it, I’m not taking it."

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by abirch on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:57PM (#36098760)
The difficult thing for the USA is that we treat healthcare as a profit center. This leads to focusing on efficiencies instead of extra capacity. You don't want extra beds, unless you have a pandemic. There aren't hospital beds as a services.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by disgruntledphd2 on Sunday May 28, 2023 @09:44AM (#36103945)
If you have government funded healthcare, you only want enough capacity for average needs because otherwise you're wasting taxpayer money.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by scarface_74 on Sunday May 28, 2023 @03:04PM (#36106788)
Now use that same argument about military spending…
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by Izkata on Sunday May 28, 2023 @06:08PM (#36108257)
Except we actually did make that extra capacity in several parts of the country in March 2020, those extra beds went almost entirely unused, were quietly disassembled in April 2020, and everyone forgot they existed.
[dead]
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by londons_explore on Saturday May 27, 2023 @04:38PM (#36098072)
There aren't many claiming it was deliberate...

The main claims seems to be accidental release of a virus. If it was deliberate, you probably wouldn't release it right at the lab that developed it...

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by zmgsabst on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:39PM (#36098612)
Okay, but if you’re driving recklessly and cause a car crash which kills someone, I don’t say they died “naturally”.

There’s a reason the US banned that variety of gain of function — and a reason why people are outraged Fauci and EcoHealth Alliance sponsored it in China to circumvent that.

[dead]
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by _Microft on Saturday May 27, 2023 @04:34PM (#36098030)
(This is just a placeholder in case you get downvoted too much until I got my reply ready)
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by commandlinefan on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:27PM (#36098505)
> There is no arguing though that curfews can and did help

I absolutely argue that they did not “help”. COVID is still here. Everybody will still get it at some point in their lives and it’s no less deadly than it was when the curfews started. They delayed some cases of COVID but did t prevent anything. At enormous cost, any way you measure it.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by fzeroracer on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:47PM (#36098674)
The point was the delay of cases. During COVID many people died of preventable diseases or issues because COVID patients were siphoning our hospital and medical systems of resources. This man died of something that could've been prevented because hospitals were full and he couldn't get an ICU bed [1]. There are many more stories of this during the height of COVID of people dying from things that were low risk emergencies that became high risk ones because of hospitals being stressed.

In a situation where we did not have any lockdowns or curfews or measures in place, there would've been far more deaths because of limited hospital capacity being entirely consumed.

[1] https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/0...

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by PlunderBunny on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:51PM (#36098710)
Omicron is certainly less deadly that the earlier variants, and the time gained with lockdowns allowed the population to get vaccinated, and gave hospitals time to build more ICUs. I think it's fair to say that these things are facts, not opinions!
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by terminatornet on Saturday May 27, 2023 @06:07PM (#36098844)
i would argue they did help. i have not gotten covid yet as far as I know. If and when I do, I guarantee I will be much happier to have gotten it when vaccines, treatments and therapeutics are improved compared to 3 years ago.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by revelio on Sunday May 28, 2023 @07:30AM (#36103127)
Curfews and other such measures had no effect and this is clear in the data. It's been looked at extensively and there's no correlation between severity of lockdown measures and outcomes.

It was clear lockdowns would end this way almost immediately. The diamond princess cruise ship proved that SARS-CoV-2 spread through aerosols, like a gas. It can spread through air ducts between locked rooms. The moment you accept that, the failure of lockdowns becomes entirely foreseeable. Nor was this unexpected. SARS-1 could spread the same way, as proven by outbreak investigations at the time.

And yes, there were people pointing this out in early 2020. The idea that nothing was known so the most extreme response possible was justified is:

1. Wrong

2. Illogical anyway! There are always unknowns, if you always overreact any time you're in s new situation we diagnose you with an anxiety disorder. It's not normal or healthy.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by PlunderBunny on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:16PM (#36098402)
I don’t wish in any way to minimise or attempt to refute how you feel about the events your family missed, and I know a great many other people had similar experiences. Lockdowns, when done properly, do work. Here in New Zealand, we enjoyed more than a year of _normal_ life between our first Nation-wide lockdown at the beginning of the pandemic, and the eventual emergence of omicron in the community. That period not only provided time for the population to be vaccinated (we got to 92% fully vaccinated) but also saved many many lives, and allowed people to do things like attend funerals and births which they wouldn’t have been able to do (safely) if there was no lockdown. History will record that it was the right approach.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by 015UUZn8aEvW on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:34PM (#36098567)
The US has 70 times the population of New Zealand, an underclass that's larger in percentage terms and less functional than New Zealand's, a porous border through which literally millions of people pass illegally, outside of the government's control, and tens of millions of illegal residents who have illegal or no ID and studiously avoid being tracked by the government. There was no possible way that the US could ever have implemented New Zealand's policy successfully, even if Americans wanted to do so.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by PlunderBunny on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:49PM (#36098688)
Sure - I think I agree that the same approach wouldn't have worked in the USA. But it's also not a binary choice between 'lockdown until elimination' and no lockdowns, but having said that, I don't know what the US or similarly large countries should have done.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by User23 on Saturday May 27, 2023 @06:03PM (#36098816)
And Sweden did nothing and got an equally good outcome and doesn't even have the benefit of being an island country.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by PlunderBunny on Saturday May 27, 2023 @08:04PM (#36099738)
It doesn't take much time to find articles from reputable sources that show that Sweden most definitely did not have 'an equally good outcome' (if I understand you correctly and you're comparing to New Zealand). For example: https://www.newsroom.co.nz/comparing-covid-how-new-zealand-s...
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by revelio on Sunday May 28, 2023 @07:22AM (#36103086)
You're using terms differently. What New Zealand did was border closures. The word lockdowns refers to forcing everyone to stay at home, closing all the businesses and schools.

Neither approach worked. The NZ approach merely delayed the inevitable and was horrific for citizens who wanted to return home and were unable to do so. One NZ citizen had to rely on the kindness of the Taliban because nowhere else would take her. Incidents like that are nothing to be proud of.

Meanwhile, good luck implementing such controls in places where it's easier to get to!

History will record that the country that ignored the hysteria came out with some of the best results in Europe, revealing the truth that expert advice was damaging and futile. Something that was already clear in 2020 to anyone who cared to look.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by PlunderBunny on Monday May 29, 2023 @07:44PM (#36119457)
New Zealand did both, and both worked - it did delay the inevitable, but that allowed time for the population to become vaccinated, for supplies of PPE to build up, for hospitals to build ICUs etc, and provide time for the virus to change to the much-less deadly omicron (delta and alpha never spread widely in NZ - we avoided all of that). Per head of population, our death rate was lower than almost any other country in the world. And we enjoyed an entire year of normal life between the successful elimination of alpha/delta and the eventual emergence of omicron while the rest of the world suffered. All the political parties in NZ were unanimous in stating that the elimination strategy was the right choice, and you'd be hard pressed to find a significant number of New Zealander's that think now that the better strategy would have been to 'let her rip'. Of course you can find personal examples where lockdowns/border closures were a worse outcome for some people (I have a friend whose brother was unable to see his dying father), but being able to quote examples like that doesn't refute the strategy, because we only have to look to other countries to see what the alternatives were - a much, much, higher death rate. You say "the country that ignored the hysteria came out with some of the best results in Europe", but you don't say what that country was - did it have a lower death rate than NZ did?
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by revelio on Tuesday May 30, 2023 @03:53AM (#36122210)
I was referring to Sweden, which did neither lockdowns nor border closures and ended up with one of the lowest death rates in Europe. Lockdowns didn't work, they just made things worse.

Anyway, death rates are garbage data during COVID. They were classifying murders by shooting as COVID deaths. They were classifying people who died at 95 as COVID deaths. Where lockdowns were implemented they wanted the measured death rates to be as high as possible to justify what was being done, so classification criteria were as loose as possible. In NZ the political narrative relied on border closures being effective so they needed deaths to be as low as possible. Public health is so corrupt and malign that you can never really know what's going on if you listen to them.

> All the political parties in NZ were unanimous in stating that the elimination strategy was the right choice

Then they are idiots because COVID wasn't eliminated, was it? As you said yourself, their strategy was at best one of delaying the inevitable.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by shjake on Sunday May 28, 2023 @10:58AM (#36104549)
> Lockdowns, when done properly, do work.

It works when (or rather almost entirely because) you’re in a geographically isolated island.

Maybe the Netherlands could have pulled this of if they really wanted to, like them time they flooded half of the country to keep out the French but it’s not applicable to any other country in Europe

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by zeagle on Saturday May 27, 2023 @10:03PM (#36100442)
I work in healthcare and attended on COVID wards when that was a thing.

One perspective to consider is resource limitation as how it affected individuals and their families.

There are folks who would have died in the peaks due to resource limitations and public policy smoothed this out. Even post vaccine, I know someone close to me who ended up in ICU with COVID.

They would have died if it was earlier because there was not enough resources. Even if there wasn't formal triaging that just meant it was dumped on care providers without the support of policy.

To you and the others here: look, I'm sorry you missed a funeral or your parents missed the birth of a grandchild or whatever, but please appreciate that for every one of you out there there is someone out that is thankful their spouse or mother didn't die. The lack of empathy has made me lose faith in a big part of society.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by peteradio on Sunday May 28, 2023 @11:41AM (#36105021)
Would you rather one person lose a hand or many people lose a finger, that's effectively what you advocate for here.. distribute the impact that would natural affect few onto the many and with no actual analysis to see if we minimized harm overall. I think the lack of empathy can cut both ways.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by zeagle on Sunday May 28, 2023 @02:56PM (#36106713)
I think your argument is disingenuously reductive but I'll bite: yeah. Life over limb is not a hard argument. Thankfully nobody is going around chopping off fingers. Would you donate blood to save lives? Or reduce a company's profit a bit to have less environmental impact through regulations?

I presume you benefit from living in a society. There are trade offs and costs to this benefit. Even if you pulled yourself up by your bootstraps, have a business, self made man whatever you benefit regardless of your feelings on others and their entitlements from the infrastructure. It gives you access to whatever it is that you make you living doing.

You are welcome to go live on the trap line and ignore all this and thus abstain but please, please be consistent and don't show up to clog a hospital bed when you get sick from the consequences of you actions.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by peteradio on Sunday May 28, 2023 @05:01PM (#36107747)
Way to not address the issue at all. Some people have dog allergies should we outlaw dogs to save the unfortunate few? How do you balance the benefits of your interventions with the damages?
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by zeagle on Sunday May 28, 2023 @08:09PM (#36109090)
I acknowledge your point but disagree with the logic behind it. Perhaps someone has died from a dog allergy but not any significant amount to affect society and the medical systems capability to deal with everything else. This was a one in a few generation pandemic and clearly a different situation. Why someone would expect a perfect public policy response to this I also can't imagine and lessons are hopefully learned from it. I think there was a lot of grift in there as humans are oft to do with bailouts, subsidies, contracts and when it got politicized it all went to hell so I can't defend that.

As an aside certainly some have died from aggressive dog breeds. I personally agree with the bans that exist in some municipalities on them to prevent a toddler from getting mauled. But I can see how some don't and that is a valid perspective.

Thank you for sharing your perspective.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by peteradio on Sunday May 28, 2023 @08:54PM (#36109396)
Yes my original comment was honestly in response to your comment that you are losing faith in humanity based on the response you are seeing. I have no conclusion really on which way I think things should have been decided and think the only way things can be improved upon is if we take an honest critical look at what we are doing. My analogies are not similar in extent to COVID but are hopefully illustrative of the pitfalls of solving one problem and creating others and the need to practically account for it, at least after the fact acknowledge it, don't get butthurt because not everyone could immediately get with the program.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by TechBro8615 on Saturday May 27, 2023 @04:46PM (#36098141)
> No one sold them as good.

What? Why'd we implement them then? Plenty of people were criticizing the policies, but they were generally overruled in favor of vague goals which were "sold as good," like "flattening the curve."

Relatedly, one of my pet peeves is when people talk about the harms of lockdowns but frame it as "the damage that covid did to children's education." It wasn't the virus that did that damage. It was the policies.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by carlmr on Saturday May 27, 2023 @04:56PM (#36098222)
While I agree with you that a lot of the damage we did wasn't the virus, I feel like OP was quite clear in saying if there's only bad and worse, pick bad.

Which logically I agree with, although I still think that post CDC study on statistically negligible outdoor transmission, any government that didn't allow people to socialize and gather outside was not listening to science and picking worse over bad.

I think we could have done a lot better, even with the available evidence at that time, in finding ways to socialize that wouldn't cause so much mental and economic harm.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by Izkata on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:51PM (#36098716)
> was not listening to science and picking worse over bad.

The problem was anyone trying to say this, no matter how much evidence they had, was censored and ignored. Called an idiot. Asked "why they wanted to kill grandma". So on and so forth.

"Worse" was treated as "good" for years in spite of the science.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by lazide on Saturday May 27, 2023 @04:55PM (#36098217)
Uh, they were sold as better than the alternatives.

And even without the policies, things were going to happen.

The initial economic impacts preceded any of the policies by weeks, for instance, and the social changes (including WFH) started rolling out before any formal policies did. The tech companies started to do it weeks ahead of public policy on the matter for instance, because they didn’t have any better alternatives, and it would have been worse otherwise.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by revelio on Sunday May 28, 2023 @07:14AM (#36103042)
Of course they did. The alternative was to just keep calm and carry on, like for every other virus outbreak. The idea that COVID required unique measures is not true and had been proven untrue many times in many ways. The correct response was the traditional one: let doctors get on with it and otherwise continue with normal life.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by disgruntledphd2 on Sunday May 28, 2023 @09:41AM (#36103919)
The hospitalisation rate made this implausible. Sure, we could have kept calm and carried on, but the health care system would have collapsed. It almost did in a bunch of European countries, including mine. And that's with the lockdowns.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by lazide on Sunday May 28, 2023 @11:16AM (#36104747)
Yeah. There were areas in the US (parts of Texas, Los Angeles County, New York) where the system did start to collapse, even with lockdowns and warnings. It likely would have been much worse without them. It likely would have been much better if folks had taken the warnings more seriously. Most didn't.

Oh how we forget!

I had a business acquaintance in Florida that went from 'COVID is all liberal propaganda', to literally almost dead in the hospital (they had to induce a Coma in him for 2 weeks), to 'I almost died, holy fuck, it's real' all in the space of a month last year.

And an in-law that almost died of it a year and a half ago in Spain, requiring a week in the ICU. He kept insisting it wasn't COVID even after his family had all tested positive (and he refused being tested) until he woke up in the middle of the night and realized he was dying (his words).

Luckily they had figured out the anti-inflammatory treatment at that point, or he likely would have been dead.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by revelio on Sunday May 28, 2023 @12:07PM (#36105267)
It wouldn't. Governments said the hospitals were collapsing because they needed to justify their actions, whilst simultaneously publishing dashboards that showed plenty of free capacity.

The problem is that most COVID cases in hospitals were of people who were infected in hospital itself. They weren't admitted for it. Just looking at "covid cases in hospitals" would therefore be misleading. That was never highlighted by the media or government officials because it was embarrassing but sometimes dashboards would reveal it.

As an example look at Switzerland's data. It's useful because it was still being updated as recently as May.

https://www.covid19.admin.ch/en/hosp-capacity/total?hospCapZ...

As you can see, it made no difference whatsoever and actually at the start of the dataset the hospitals are way under utilized.

Some countries have worse hospital systems than Switzerland, and regularly experience shortages of care even in normal times. But this example shows that for a good healthcare system COVID could be handled easily without even coming close to running out of capacity.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by disgruntledphd2 on Monday May 29, 2023 @05:29AM (#36112246)
Switzerland have like one of the best numbers of beds per person in the OECD.

Ireland (where I live) have one of the worst, and I followed the numbers religiously for most of Covid. Without the lockdown/other measures to reduce spread, the health care system would have collapsed multiple times (hence why we had some of the longest lockdowns in the world).

Like, my mother had cancer and suffered massively due to the lockdowns (I firmly believe it was a large contributor to her death last year) but that doesn't mean that they weren't necessary, at least in Ireland.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by revelio on Tuesday May 30, 2023 @03:57AM (#36122238)
You had lockdowns because politicians were following the instructions of corrupt academics. Lockdowns made no impact on hospital load (can you determine the dates and times of interventions by looking at the graphs I just linked?). Nor did they have any impact on death rates or anything else.

> the health care system would have collapsed

You were told that but the Swiss were told that too. In fact they were told the hospitals were collapsing, even as their own dashboard said the exact opposite.

Governments lied about COVID, all the time. Lockdowns had no impact on spread, and there's a ton of studies showing that by now, just go searching for them on Google Scholar. But you don't even need studies. Just eyeball the graphs of various countries and try to spot the impact on case numbers of these supposedly mandatory interventions. There isn't any. SARS-CoV-2 like all coronaviruses spreads like a gas and these viral clouds can hang around and travel long distances in the air. Lockdowns are meaningless given such a modality of spread.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by geekpowa on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:32PM (#36098552)
The living complain about the adverse impacts they experienced, while the dead remain dead.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by TechBro8615 on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:39PM (#36098611)
I see this argument a lot but I don't understand it. Are you suggesting the dead people would have been grateful for the policies that didn't stop them from dying? Or are you suggesting the policies didn't go far enough, and if the dead people could complain, then we'd be convinced to implement even stricter policies next time?
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by dmbche on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:50PM (#36098699)
It's not about what the dead would say - it's about the difference in degree between inconvenience and death.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by TechBro8615 on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:58PM (#36098774)
The implication of this argument is that if people are dying, the government can implement any policy they want with the nominal intention of "saving lives," and nobody has any right to complain about "inconveniences" because they're not dead, unlike the people who died despite the policies meant to prevent their deaths.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by dmbche on Saturday May 27, 2023 @06:03PM (#36098812)
While I agree with your statement, I think you might be projecting a little - this is a simple comment, kind of like saying "nothing new under the sun". Not all statements are necessarily prescriptive.

This is used to keep things in perspective when talking about such emotional subjects, not be a final word, I believe

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by geekpowa on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:58PM (#36098765)
It’s an argument about survivorship bias in any critique of Covid policies that imply Covid response was unnecessarily harmful

My personal pandemic experience was luckier than many . 3 wilderness years of lost time only; of no growth. no loss of business, work , home etc. more importantly I’m alive and so is everyone I love

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by zizee on Saturday May 27, 2023 @04:56PM (#36098229)
The GP means the policies were sold as the "least worst" option.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by jen20 on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:13PM (#36098378)
Less bad need not be good. One only need look at electoral politics in the US for this to be obvious.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by joshuamorton on Saturday May 27, 2023 @04:54PM (#36098206)
> Why'd we implement them then?

Because they were, as the post you're replying to makes pretty clear, still in the realm of less bad, or at least very probably less bad. The point GP is making is that there were zero "good" options. In a global pandemic, every choice has only bad options, and you try to pick the least bad.

Or in other words, they're saying that the "correct" decision was still ultimately a bad one. And you're trying to frame that statement as though the decisions made were incorrect. That's pretty rhetorically unkind of you.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by lucubratory on Sunday May 28, 2023 @11:18AM (#36104767)
This is complete historical revisionism. For basically the entire time that schools were remote and weeks after, any time a school tried to open so many teachers became sick that operating the school became infeasible. It was a choice between sick and dead teachers (and some children) with unknown future consequences and schools shut down without staff, or schools shut down to do remote schooling with significantly lower mortality rates. We saw what your proposed solution did when the policies were abandoned; millions of people died and are still dying, and life expectancy in the US is still 2-6 years below what it was four years ago. That has wiped out 20-40 years of improvements to life expectancy in the US, depending on the population under discussion.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by enslavedrobot on Sunday May 28, 2023 @12:36PM (#36105578)
Huh, my kids went back to school in September of 2020 here in Vancouver British Columbia. There was a short shutdown later in the fall, then schools were open for the duration.

No teachers died, and there was very little in school transmission. Our provincial health officer in charge made the choice based on the data available. BC has a very low overall COVID death rate compared to other jurisdictions. You can go look up the data on deaths and satisfy yourself that closing schools as long as many jurisdictions did was a stupid idea. The idea that we didn't know that at the time is also suspect, since data driven decision makers like the one in BC opened schools back up once the risk of transmission between children was determined.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by skinnymuch on Sunday May 28, 2023 @01:43PM (#36106134)
To be fair, the person was talking about the US and more likely they were talking about the region they are from.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by hanoz on Saturday May 27, 2023 @04:57PM (#36098237)
It makes me sick to my stomach to hear entirely reasonable anger about the catalogue of ill-judged, immoral and inhumane policy cooked up on the hoof by ignorant politicians, egged on by should-know-better power-tripping scientists, belittled as mere quibbles about interferences with thier preferred daily routines.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by peyton on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:05PM (#36098298)
Yeah, my grandmother was very social. She had dementia and didn’t understand what was happening. She cried about how lonely she was every single day for months until she passed.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by pessimizer on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:13PM (#36098381)
My grandfather had been holding off the worsening of his vascular dementia for a long time because he had a lot of family around him to remind him who he was. Cutting him off from the world resulted in quick decline and death. Lockdown killed dementia patients: https://www.alzheimers.org.uk/news/2020-07-30/lockdown-isola...
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by saiya-jin on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:30PM (#36098534)
What if both of you are right? Or wrong for that matter? Everybody acknowledges that some people got hurt pretty badly by policies applied, and those people are in millions on global scale. Clearly you are one of them.

Yet we saved by some estimates lower tens of millions of lives, and we tested en masse extremely promising new way of administering cures/vaccinations. Attacking that takes more than just some emotional outbursts, better come with some cold hard facts. Ie I don't know a single person who doesn't have in circle of family or close friends somebody who passed away directly due to covid.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by zmgsabst on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:36PM (#36098592)
Go ahead and post a study that says we saved tens of millions.

Not one intervention has been shown to reduce mortality by 50% across the general population — you’re making facts up to deny the harms caused.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by tapland on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:59PM (#36098780)
No but we hsve things like Sweden with a demographic and social systems very similar to its neighbors (norway, denmark,finland) ending up with 2x the mortality of said neighbors by choosing milder interventions.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by the_third_wave on Saturday May 27, 2023 @06:37PM (#36099105)
Sweden had a higher mortality at the start but ended up with the lowest excess mortality in Europe starting January 2021 [1]. The country had the lowest excess mortality overall during the SARS2 years 2020-2022 [1].

[1] https://www.dagensmedicin.se/specialistomraden/infektion/sve...

[2] https://www.europaportalen.se/2023/03/sverige-hade-lagsta-ov...

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by tapland on Thursday June 08, 2023 @08:48PM (#36251596)
Yes. The total I quoted was on all covid deaths. If one is fine with killing twice the number of people if it happens fast, I guess you are correct.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by Fgehono on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:07PM (#36098333)
Easy eays captain hindsight
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by pessimizer on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:08PM (#36098336)
I still can't get over how we shut down schools in a huge amount of the world for a long period of time, and didn't come out of that with high-quality, open source, government-sponsored software for remote education. Instead, we just waited it out on every level, while the rich got a lot richer.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by adhesive_wombat on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:17PM (#36098413)
That we don't have that anyway is mind-blowing. An open-source corpus of educational material seems like an obvious social good in excess of many things that do get huge quantities of money sprayed at them.

Why does every school need to figure out sourcing their own worksheets for teaching kids about oxbow lakes or copper sulphate or whatever? Half the time they look like a teacher made them in 1993 using Windows NT clipart program, a typewriter and a photocopier, the other half of the time they are sloppily and half-heartedly cobbled together by some educational company.

The BBC does do quite a bit of this with BiteSize, bit it still seems limited compared to what I would really hope for.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by abirch on Saturday May 27, 2023 @06:09PM (#36098873)
Correct, not a lot has happened in Trigonometry or introductory calculus for centuries but colleges are always requiring newer editions.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by ForOldHack on Sunday May 28, 2023 @08:27PM (#36109213)
Introductory Calculus, my friend, a teacher, during a period, where a new edition proved to be more buggy then the rest, abandoned text books. A recent HS grad, walked into their class, and was dismissed... then dropped my name, and was told to sit down. There are things from recent work that is now being incorporated into the curriculum, cleaner approaches... but the text books have not kept pace, except for one important exception: The amount of free textbooks has ballooned, and a great new proof of integral (1/x)
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by 015UUZn8aEvW on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:25PM (#36098491)
When you observe school policy debates at the local level, you come to realize that, for many parents, school's main function is free daycare for the kids so that they can go to work. Remote school doesn't help much on that front.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by threeseed on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:24PM (#36098476)
Because nobody e.g. teachers, students, parents wants remote education.

Attending schools is about 50% education, 50% social development.

Many students don't have strong family structures at home and fall behind academically and socially if not attending in person.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by ianlevesque on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:31PM (#36098538)
And for many parents 100% daycare.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by quags on Saturday May 27, 2023 @06:01PM (#36098792)
Perhaps but I’d argue society has moved to where this is better (children must have an education) vs the alternative say getting a job or whatever children did 100 years ago. Also it is being paid for, at least in my area, through quite high property taxes where over 60% go to school. So if the alternative is find day care or educate them myself I expect my taxes to go down where I can use that money for education and day care.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by ianlevesque on Saturday May 27, 2023 @08:22PM (#36099872)
It is better. I wish more parents valued the education more than the experiences of the last couple years revealed they do.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by dennis_jeeves1 on Saturday May 27, 2023 @08:18PM (#36099841)
Meanwhile the parents can devote 100% of their time to their corporate/government overlords. 1984 indeed.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by 2devnull on Sunday May 28, 2023 @09:45AM (#36103950)
Being away from a bad family environment and around non-threatening people for a few hours every day is a huge benefit to many people. But there are also good families, where children thrive and can learn well remotely or through homeschooling. Not all families or students are the same. Indeed the effects of the lockdowns on students prove that. Some kids did well. Those who were already struggling got permanently destroyed (for all intents and purposes) by the lockdowns. Overall the lockdowns were bad because, imo, teachers cannot teach well remotely. Remote learning is not a hard problem. Remote teaching— that’s the problem.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by thx-2718 on Sunday May 28, 2023 @11:16AM (#36104739)
Can't really teach kids that are dead or with teachers that are dead.

Kids can catch up. I think people perceive the less than 2 years of remote school that these kids are irreversibly behind in some huge proportion.

The good benefit of not dying easily outweighs the bad effect of a slightly less optimal education for a brief period of time.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by dent9876543 on Sunday May 28, 2023 @11:47AM (#36105081)
That's a gross oversimplification.

It's only close to true for those kids that would have done reasonably anyway.

For those kids that don't have the kind of family environment that will allow them to catch up, it's gonna be a long haul. And they may never get there. That weighs on them for the rest of their time — on the education system, while they're still in it. And it weighs on us, in terms of the resources they take away from other children in education, and then on wider society later in life.

Since the lockdowns, there seems to have been a change in the mindset of some groups — skipping school has been made acceptable. There's a whole bunch of kids that might never return to education as a normal routine. It's likely the hangover will be long and painful for some groups.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by base698 on Sunday May 28, 2023 @04:08PM (#36107286)
Reading the teachers subreddit I have seen post after post complaining about letting kids graduate who willfully missed 100-200 days of school. I was not aware it was as large of a problem if the reddit posts are to be believed.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by thx-2718 on Monday May 29, 2023 @08:35AM (#36113350)
I think you're really missing the forest for the trees.

Schools aren't the solution to the problem you're describing (children with bad homes) and was a problem before COVID.

Bigger picture is that it is better to keep a larger portion of the population from dying or developing long term complications than slightly (very) protect a few children that are already being abused.

If you're really going to stand by your position then I suggest a reasonable compromise and that is expanding access to licensed professional social workers and community health programs that are there to help parents and children succeed in life.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by maeil on Sunday May 28, 2023 @11:44AM (#36105059)
> Because nobody e.g. teachers, students, parents wants remote education.

Plenty of students do. The percentage of parents that does is indeed small, but not trivial either.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by MattGaiser on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:20PM (#36098439)
Has government done software well anywhere in terms of user friendliness?
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by adhesive_wombat on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:26PM (#36098493)
The UK Government Digital Service has produced some pretty excellent, useable and consistent online services, with a particular focus on accessibility. Also great care taken to keep the services functional on very old and low-spec devices, far in excess of any private company I have used a website from, which are usually so bogged down with JS glitz that they barely actually work.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by limograf on Sunday May 28, 2023 @01:43PM (#36106139)
GDS is really brilliant, it's true.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by tapland on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:53PM (#36098733)
Yes. Many examples in the EU
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by tomrod on Saturday May 27, 2023 @06:07PM (#36098856)
Check out US digital services and 18F
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by fnordpiglet on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:50PM (#36098701)
Outschool is pretty amazing. I think through a Darwinian process a lot of remote education tools will emerge. I think people ignore that remote education tech is helpful for homeschooling, for extracurriculars, for people trying to get a degree while working, people in very rural areas, developing countries, and a whole host of other use cases. There was definitely a “we will hack this stuff together and throw it aside asap” mentality which baffled me as an engineer, but I’m certain a lot of very capable and smart people have learned amazing things and built great tech. It’ll take a while for the bitter after taste to wear off, and as I discussed above, the back biting and second guessing and the indignation that they had to sacrifice or suffer in some way in a disaster. But as emotions cool, I think we will see a resurgence of the techniques and technologies.

Re: governmental open source - the government is typically bad at such things. It’ll be private sector, educator, and contributor sourced as with all great things in the space of tech, for better or worse.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by bsder on Saturday May 27, 2023 @09:09PM (#36100128)
Because remote education doesn't really work. Humans are just not wired for it.

One of my friend's daughter was 6 years old in the middle of the mess. He simply could NOT get her to "mode switch"--if she was home and daddy was home it's "vacation time" and anything else was a miserable fight.

He and couple of other families finally got together to pay a teacher and have a "pod" of 4 other children in their local housing development. That way the daughter went to "school" for some number of hours a day and her father didn't have to fight the "mode switch" any more.

All four of those students are now WAY ahead of all their classmates.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by 2devnull on Sunday May 28, 2023 @09:52AM (#36103993)
I agree but would also note that your proof isn’t very fullproof. You can pull 4 students and send them to a tutor under any condition, and those students will come out ahead. You prove only that a teacher with a 4 person classroom of students of concerned parent-types tends to outperform the baseline, a pandemic remote learning environment with a mix of students and public school salaried teacher.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by giardini on Sunday May 28, 2023 @11:01AM (#36104590)
(S)he didn't claim a "proof"!

But the story (s)he tells is extremely interesting and is useful to others.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by bsder on Sunday May 28, 2023 @07:06PM (#36108682)
The point was that my friend couldn't get his daughter to learn, period, without a fight until he solved the mode switch problem. And that parents in the same housing development didn't seem to be able to solve it either as their children are now far behind those of my friend's daughter and her compatriots from that pod.

Neither individual home tutors nor parental tutoring nor online schooling seemed to be able to solve the problem. The solution required an in-person mode switch of the teacher and environment.

Now, this could obviously be different for, say, college age or adult learners. Young children don't have the same general understanding of conditions that adults do. On the other hand, "mode switch" is a thing even for adults as we talk about "flow" all the time.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by 2devnull on Monday May 29, 2023 @01:22PM (#36115938)
I think you’re right. I’d just love better data. I used to do the typical Silicon Valley commute and arrive at work unable to focus for an hour or two because mode switching so quickly know it’s a thing. What I wonder about is why is it more of a thing in some situations compared to others, and is it not a thing we want to make students practice doing.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by Viliam1234 on Sunday May 28, 2023 @05:26PM (#36107940)
I have seen a few teachers who discovered their new talents during COVID, and made YouTube lessons for their students. Most of them simply filmed themselves in front of the blackboard, talking and writing, just like they would in a classroom full of students.

The ones I know about were mostly elementary school math teachers, so it was like you had online lessons covering grade 5-9 math, almost overnight. Of course it made me think: "How much work would it take to systematically cover everything?" At least, everything on the elementary and high school level -- perhaps universities are a special case, but for every elementary or high school lessons, you have hundreds of teachers that teach it every year, so a few of them should be capable and willing to do a solid work in front of the camera.

And it would be so incredibly easy! Not in the sense that I would underestimate the work of a good teacher required to make a good lesson... but in the sense that the teachers are already preparing those lessons anyway -- it is their everyday work. The only thing that is needed is for them to repeat the lesson once again, in an empty room in front of the camera.

The greatest actual obstacle is probably that many don't think about it, or don't want the extra work of learning to use the camera, buying the right camera, cutting the video, making and maintaining an online account, etc. Which is why this would benefit from some division of labor. How about letting the teacher prepare and do the lessons, and have someone else operate the camera and cut the videos? The advantage is that the camera person can be the same for many different subjects. More teachers would probably be willing to join the project this way.

Now imagine the easiest possible implementation: very simply edit the videos (just remove the mistakes, or maybe the parts where the teacher took a break, speed up 3x the erasing of the blackboard, etc.), upload those videos to YouTube (to the teachers' accounts if they have some, or to a project's common account if they don't), and then create a simple web catalogue of all the videos. So that the person would visit the homepage, choose the subject, choose the grade, choose the topic, and then see a list of videos from different teachers teaching that topic.

I think the "minimum viable product" should cover at least one subject in one grade completely, so that it is a reliable resource that the user can keep visiting during the entire year, knowing that they will always find what they are looking for. Otherwise, there is really not much advantage over using Google. Expand from there to cover more grades and more subjects. Basically, always provide an equivalent of a textbook for the entire grade, not just a video here and a video there and a disappointment everywhere else. -- But of course, once you have the entire grade of a subject covered, you can keep adding more videos from other teachers even if they do not cover the entire grade. If you have 1 video for one topic, and 3 different videos for another topic, that is perfectly okay. The important thing is that all topics (in given subject and grade) are covered at least by 1 video. Alternative videos are good, because if you don't get it after watching a video, it might help to hear another person explain it differently.

I think you could do all this relatively quickly and cheaply. I mean, if you find teachers willing to do this for free (and I believe you could, considering the fact that a few of them already did it alone), and if the schools provide the empty classrooms in the evening, you basically just need to pay someone with the camera to record the videos, someone to cut the videos, and someone to make the web front end. That would be like, three people's salary, and in return you get hundreds of videos each year.

Providing all those videos for free could dramatically change the experience of education. Anytime a child didn't understand the lesson at school, or was sick, they could watch the lessons at home. This would be an awesome resource for homeschoolers, or for talented kids who want to learn the knowledge of higher grades. Adults could refresh their knowledge, whether out of sheer curiosity, or because they want to help their kids.

And because the contents of school education do not change so fast (except maybe for computer science lessons), the content once produced could be used for decades. And once it is there, it can still be further improved -- like, if you think that some teacher did not explain a certain topic properly, make a better video yourself. If certain knowledge becomes obsolete, or something is added to the curriculum, just record that one lesson.

You could also dub those lessons to the languages of minorities (by different people, again the division of labor), etc.

*

In before "but isn't Khan Academy doing exactly this?" -- yes and no. Yes, Khan Academy provides awesome online education, a strong alternative to schools. And it does much more than I propose here; such as automatically evaluated exercises, tracking of student progress, etc. But the cost is that preparing all this takes a lot of time. Also, the barriers to contributing are high; a random teacher cannot just record their lessons and add them.

I would like to see a system where contributing is simple for teachers, and therefore we could reasonably expect to have the elementary and high school education covered systematically; to have alternative explanations for the same topic, to keep getting new and improved videos for the existing topics, etc. (And there is nothing wrong with having Khan Academy as an alternative to this; the more options, the better.)

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by tmaly on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:10PM (#36098359)
I think Andrew Huff would contest your qualification of it as "natural"
[dead]
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by someNameIG on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:21PM (#36098449)
Here in Australia our interventions were longer and more sever that that of the US, our excess deaths are about 4 times less than youse over there.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusDownunder/comments/13pgt...

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by zmgsabst on Saturday May 27, 2023 @07:52PM (#36099652)
Sorry for the slow response, I wanted to investigate the data before responding —

Here is a chart listing their cumulative mortality, from the OECD dataset. Measured as fractions of their current populations. This chart assumes all COVID deaths are excess (which undercounts real excess).

USA pop: 334,814,000

AUS pop: 26,479,000

https://zmichaelgehlke.com/images/mortality/covid-mortality-...

Total excess is pink; COVID deaths (total) are orange; non-COVID attributable excess is blue.

A few points:

- COVID deaths are about 4x lower, but excess deaths around 3x

- there’s more non-COVID attributable excess than COVID deaths in AUS

- the USA has higher per capita expected mortality than AUS, as well; by about 1.5x

See here:

https://zmichaelgehlke.com/images/mortality/all-mortality-co...

I’m not sure I’d count this to interventions, which when directly measured seem to provide lower benefits, versus the fact US healthcare is questionable and the US unhealthy in ways dangerous during COVID — as measured by expected mortality being higher.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by enslavedrobot on Sunday May 28, 2023 @12:55PM (#36105740)
Take a look at Sweden's cumulative excess deaths.

https://www.thelocal.se/20230310/fact-check-did-sweden-have-...

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by AgentOrange1234 on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:18PM (#36098419)
What’s your source on this? I haven’t heard anything like this.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by zmgsabst on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:41PM (#36098626)
On what?

I cited the OECD data; I downloaded it, added up COVID deaths, excess deaths, and subtracted COVID from excess to get “non-COVID attributed excess”.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by commandlinefan on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:24PM (#36098471)
> Policies chosen as “least bad” are still bad.

But they deliberately chose the least _good_ policies, when it was very obvious that the choices they were making were by far the worst.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by jiggawatts on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:34PM (#36098574)
I raised a child during the pandemic, during the lockdowns. His grandparents missed out on most of the first year of his life because of travel restrictions. They lived just across town.

What lesson did I learn from this?

I learned that toddlers will throw an epic hissy fit if they don't get what they want, even if what they want is impossible, impractical, or goes against either their own personal interest or the interests of their family. They'll insist on doing things that have a very decent chance of killing them on the spot.

"I want it!" followed by 120 decibel screeching is the behaviour of a toddler.

We're teaching him better, of course. We're teaching about sharing. About saying sorry. Telling him when to say "thank you" and "please". I'm also teaching him not to poke metal utensils into power sockets or to sneeze in my face.

Apparently not all parents bothered with this. Their children grew up to be big children, unable the grasp these simple concepts despite having adult bodies.

Yes, the speed limit on the highway is inconvenient for you if you're late for a meeting. No, nobody cares about you and your stupid appointment, we care about the family of four you might kill for your own convenience if we let you drive as fast as you possibly can.

This is the crux of it. Some people think being allowed to drive as fast as they can is freedom, and any curtailment of that freedom is oppression.

What's truly sad about all of this is not the political polarisation over the type of health policy that goes back centuries[1]. No, it's that Katalin Karikó, the woman who spent here entire life toiling away in obscurity, never got a proper "Thank you!" from the world that she saved.

She should be more famous than Beyoncé and richer than Bill Gates, and instead she's a little-known scientist with a few pats on the back from jealous colleagues mumbling "I could have invented that" under their breath.

[1] Go look up how old the word "quarantine" is and where it originated from.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by jfengel on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:46PM (#36098665)
Everything that went wrong is evidence that if everyone had done my thing, it would all have been perfect.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by erulabs on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:56PM (#36098753)
You’re missing the forest for the trees. It’s not about if the lockdowns were better or worse, not even a bit. It’s about whether or not governments should have the power and ability to enact lockdowns in the first place. This was a somewhat mocked perspective when the general idea was the lockdowns were absolutely necessary. Now that the data, retrospectively, seems muddled and unclear, the conversation can recenter on if the government we want should even have the power to do what they did.

It’s not even a little bit about being inconvenienced, and anyone who says that is either a straw man or an idiot. It’s about the basic principle of the individual and their rights versus the group.

Of course it was a chaotic natural disaster. The question is, in the face of a natural disaster, do you or do you not want the ability to make your own decisions.

I’m no anarchist or libertarian, but if we can’t understand why those folks are really pissed off and why it has nothing to do with whatever the R-naught actually was, we’ll never make progress.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by doug_durham on Saturday May 27, 2023 @06:27PM (#36099025)
Public Health == Police == Fire fighting. They all exist to protect the population. They are peers. That some how Public Health would occur outside of the government is truly odd. Would you be in favor of Fire Departments being left up to individuals?
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by viraptor on Sunday May 28, 2023 @12:58AM (#36101281)
Slight tangent but that's an interesting example, because while healthcare and police have (at least in theory, not the point here) training/accountability requirements, there are many places with locally organised fire response units alongside of the gov organised ones. Especially in areas far away from larger towns, communities pick up a lot of organisation and responsibility for practical reasons. In extreme cases of very isolated farms, it's literally the individuals that deal with the problems unless it's likely to becomes a widespread issue.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by discreteevent on Saturday May 27, 2023 @06:11PM (#36098894)
It depends on what you mean by "your own decision". For example: If someone wants to smoke in the office that should be their own decision.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by pupppet on Saturday May 27, 2023 @06:29PM (#36099042)
I would argue it is the government’s job to ensure there is room in our hospitals.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by fzeroracer on Saturday May 27, 2023 @06:22PM (#36098986)
I mean ultimately the answer is yes. People look at COVID and say it's not a big deal, but I look at it and say that we're lucky it wasn't something far worse. We're not at all prepared if we have something like a Black Death 2.0 and ultimately your ability to function as an individual depends on society's ability to actually function. Even the half-assed measures we took against COVID helped prevent our hospital systems from completely collapsing which would've led to far more deaths.

The fact that people don't see this means they've grown too comfortable with modern society and how far we've become in preventing disease spread. Maybe it'll take a Black Death 2.0 for people to understand this.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by eastbound on Sunday May 28, 2023 @04:20AM (#36102154)
> but I look at it and say that we're lucky it wasn't something far worse

So it wasn’t. We knew it was mild, certainly worse than flu, but still mostly killing the elderly above life expectancy.

- We knew newspapers were grossly exaggerating information to the point of saying obvious bait (“the vaccine enlarges the penis” — yup they said it),

- We knew newspapers were under gag order to publish misinformation.

- We knew that most governments declared the law of exception and state of emergency, so from that point, no information could be trusted.

We knew it was mild because everyone was in a state of hysteria, from “SO YOU WANT TO KILL ALL GRANDMOTHERS” to “IN NYC THEY USE GIANT DUMPSTER TRUCKS TO CARRY THE DEADS TO THE MORGUE, SO WHY ARE YOU AGAINST LOCKDOWNS”. We knew it was all a gross exaggeration.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by cortesoft on Saturday May 27, 2023 @07:08PM (#36099340)
Whether or not you agree if these particular lockdowns were needed, I can't believe anyone would argue there is NO situation where a government should have the legal authority to order a lockdown.

What if Covid had a 50% mortality rate? Would that not have justified a lockdown?

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by dennis_jeeves1 on Saturday May 27, 2023 @08:13PM (#36099802)
> Would that not have justified a lockdown?

No, not even a 100% mortality rate justifies a lockdown

Movement of individuals (as long as he/she is not moving into your home/territory etc.) is IMO a sacred 'right' that one must offer one's fellow humans. It's a slippery slope if a dire situation however real is used as a justification for a lockdown.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by sangnoir on Saturday May 27, 2023 @09:20PM (#36100179)
After reading your comment, I have a better understanding of the thoughts that may be going through the mind of "Tuberculosis Tammy", who has infectious TB and has been on the run from isolation/treatment since January 2022[1].

I disagree with the concept that individual freedoms trumps the safety of other's, as does society at large, which deems some level of negligence to be criminal.

I hope the next pandemic has a short incubation period and ultra-high mortality.

1. https://arstechnica.com/health/2023/05/fugitive-with-untreat...

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by eastbound on Sunday May 28, 2023 @04:10AM (#36102121)
> individual freedoms trumps the safety of other's

See, you’re using the fallacy, right here. We can still do both.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by sangnoir on Sunday May 28, 2023 @03:03PM (#36106776)
> We can still do both.

I was hoping you'd explain in more detail, so I wont have to assume what your reasoning. By "do both", were you perhaps referring to measures like masks mandates while allowing people move freely? Unsurprisingly, some people felt mandates violated the sanctity of their individual rights too.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by dennis_jeeves1 on Monday May 29, 2023 @07:14PM (#36119233)
>I was hoping you'd explain in more detail, so I wont have to assume what your reasoning. By "do both",

sangnoir, Think really hard and you will be able to come up with something (where 'both' can be done).

If you cannot come up with anything then I'd say that even having a discourse with someone who can potentially come up with something is pointless because of the wide chasm.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by cortesoft on Saturday May 27, 2023 @10:04PM (#36100450)
I think it is a slippery slope to say that freedom of movement trumps all other rights. No one has the right to kill me and my children just so they can exercise their right to go wherever they want whenever they want.
[dead]
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by dang on Monday May 29, 2023 @04:28PM (#36117718)
We have to ban accounts that post like this, no matter how incorrectly someone else read a comment, so if you'd please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and stick to the rules when posting here, we'd appreciate it.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by dennis_jeeves1 on Monday May 29, 2023 @06:18PM (#36118760)
Go ahead, ban it.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by drukenemo on Sunday May 28, 2023 @03:08AM (#36101826)
You can lockdown your children and not expose them to the ones who choose risking being exposed. Can’t you?
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by dent9876543 on Sunday May 28, 2023 @04:26AM (#36102185)
But freedom of movement does trump your right.

At least as far as COVID is concerned, and that's because COVID isn't a realistic concern for most children.

There are people (children, but also others) for whom it is a marked concern, and appropriate risk mitigation strategies should be taking. Working with the gung-ho assumption that all spaces are essentially risk free would represent a fail in your duty of care.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by cortesoft on Monday May 29, 2023 @03:05PM (#36116881)
I was not necessarily talking about Covid, but about a hypothetical worse pandemic with a much higher fatality rate. The person I replied to said there would be no situation worth restricting freedom of movement for, no matter how deadly the disease.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by base698 on Sunday May 28, 2023 @05:59PM (#36108201)
If you're of child rearing age your risk of dying was like driving 10,000 miles. Also, you're delegating your responsibility to the "other". As other posters mentioned if that level of risk is unacceptable you can choose to take measures that bring the risk more inline with whatever tolerance you have.

Some of us are more afraid of an all powerful state using any excuse to further their own interests.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by cortesoft on Monday May 29, 2023 @03:05PM (#36116891)
I was not talking about Covid, the person I replied to said there would be no possible disease that would justify lockdowns.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by lucubratory on Sunday May 28, 2023 @11:26AM (#36104825)
This is really interesting. So you would genuinely be okay with with the death of something like 99% of the human population, because government imposed lockdowns are worse? Because that's what a 100% mortality rate COVID means without NPIs, 90-95% of people dead from the virus directly and almost all of the rest dead because society had collapsed around them. I am absolutely fascinated by the kind of person that can genuinely believe that, is it a sort of extreme libertarianism? Or maybe an ecological thing, you think the death of humanity would be a genuinely good thing and this 100% mortality COVID would just be a means to an end?
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by dennis_jeeves1 on Sunday May 28, 2023 @02:19PM (#36106425)
>okay with with the death of something like 99% of the human population

No, certainly not. I want people to make their own informed choices. It can be heart-wrenching for oneself to observe people make (what you think) an obvious wrong choice, but if you had any any life experiences of substance, you will realize that all you can do is give people the most accurate information that you have, but you should never, ever impose your decision (even if it's for the person's good) if the person does not consent to it. One could probably make an exception for very young kids.

Like they say, the road to hell is paved with good intentions.

Side note: who exactly decides what is good for the individual?

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by lucubratory on Sunday May 28, 2023 @08:09PM (#36109092)
>No, certainly not. I want people to make their own informed choices.

These are two contradictory sentences. Wanting people to make their own informed choices unimpinged by government action while a virus with the transmissibility of COVID and a 100% fatality rate exists is definitionally being okay with the death of 99% of the human population. Like, that is the outcome so by definition if you're in favour of only dealing with pandemics through personal responsibility and you're saying that would be the case even with a virus with the transmissibility of COVID and a 100% fatality rate, then you are saying that the death of 99% of people in existence is an acceptable outcome. What I am asking is why you believe that.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by dennis_jeeves1 on Sunday May 28, 2023 @08:31PM (#36109241)
What? are even _trying_ to understand me? People can stay at home and impose their own 'lockdown' and save their own lives. The one's that venture out should know that they will die, it's their choice.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by lucubratory on Sunday May 28, 2023 @10:01PM (#36109764)
The obvious outcome of that is that 99% of existing people will die. I am not asking about and do not care about whether they're "choosing to die" (an absurd thing to say about the need for food and water, anyway), I am asking why you are okay with the outcome where 99% of people are dead.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by dennis_jeeves1 on Monday May 29, 2023 @08:10AM (#36113162)
So you assume that people are too stupid (a fair assumption) to know the correct decision to take . Who is to say that you (or the govt) are not stupid, in the eyes of others? The arrogance here that you actually think you know better than others (again a fair assumption) and you want your way to be the only way(the really evil part).

>I am asking why you are okay with the outcome where 99% of people are dead.

Do you have any real life experiences? this happens all the time, why the fuck do you keep repeating that I actually _want_ people to die? Really evil things happen, when you try and help people even if it is for their own good without their consent. Often _more_ than 99% people will die if you do that. Let me repeat: you do not have enough life experiences. Let me also say another thing you do not read enough history especially of the 'extermination' kind. There is also a good possibility, that you are a nerd/sociopath if you do not understand the concept of live an let live.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by Izkata on Saturday May 27, 2023 @09:51PM (#36100370)
It wouldn't have been needed. Nor was the one we did have. The huge amount of fear in March 2020 resulted in evidence of that*: Cell phone tracking data in the US showed people were staying home about a week before a single lockdown started. The lockdown orders had no effect, no additional people stopped moving around, and movement started creeping back upwards only a few weeks later while the lockdowns were still in full effect.

*I've looked for this over and over since then and haven't been able to find it, I get the feeling it might have been taken offline.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by cortesoft on Saturday May 27, 2023 @10:05PM (#36100454)
This simply isn’t true. If every single person had stayed fully locked down, the pandemic would have stopped in its tracks.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by misterhtmlcss on Sunday May 28, 2023 @01:00AM (#36101290)
Source?
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by dent9876543 on Sunday May 28, 2023 @04:36AM (#36102224)
But that simply isn't true either.

Perfect eradication has to be the objective, not simply stopping it in its tracks. Otherwise, whenever you open up, you start spreading again.

It's also a rather offensive appeal to human superiority in as much as it totally ignores the various animal reservoirs.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by peteradio on Sunday May 28, 2023 @11:31AM (#36104895)
Yes because everyone would have died of starvation, problem solved right?
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by joe_the_user on Saturday May 27, 2023 @07:08PM (#36099346)
It’s about whether or not governments should have the power and ability to enact lockdowns in the first place. This was a somewhat mocked perspective when the general idea was the lockdowns were absolutely necessary.

I'd never mock the perspective, the situation is too serious.

When there was an active fire threatening my town a couple years, emergency issued an evacuation order and arrested people who came into the area. When I worked as a teacher in the 1990s, I had to get various vaccines as a condition for having a job. When I traveled in 2012, I also had to get some vaccines to visit various countries. Health departments have required restaurants to control the behavior of their customers including preventing them from coughing on the salad bar.

Covid involved the state using it's existing powers on a larger scale, no doubt. And how well it did that can certainly be debated. But all the powers the state used existed already.

So the arguments that try to put paint this situation as fundamentally new and wrong are incorrect. That they were accompanied by efforts to also falsify the nature of the illness itself reinforces the perspective that they were disingenuous. But I recognize people can convince themselves of a lot when it suits them.

if we can’t understand why those folks are really pissed off

As far as I can tell, the anger about state actions against and claims that it was some new are part of the generally polarized state of American politics. So, I think I understand. People are map 'cause they're convinced themselves of self-serving baloney. That's not an unusual source of anger for humans. But this doesn't make me "understanding" as you can imagine. Indeed, those people sure aren't the only angry ones and shouldn't be treat as special for their anger.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by Gibbon1 on Saturday May 27, 2023 @09:37PM (#36100286)
My early memory is when I was a kid they were drafting 18 year olds and sending them to Vietnam. 15 years before that they were sending young men to Korea. And before that 10 million men to Europe and the Pacific.

If you want something more related in 1948 or some such there was a small outbreak of smallpox in New York. And they vaccinated 80% of the city in a couple of months.

Speaks to me that while the state has and always had had these powers it's become loath to use them.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by poorUs on Sunday May 28, 2023 @02:22AM (#36101650)
You think you’ll have freedom to make your own decisions when millions of others are doing the same?

I think you’ll just have a natural disaster and a man-made disaster as people start shooting over toilet paper.

Look how they acted over haircuts. Look how 3 years later people are shooting folks who use their driveway to turn around.

Americans have a huge credibility issue, and act like god damn chimps flinging shit in the best of times.

You and too many others are afflicted with the idea you live in a vacuum. Your mind palace doesn’t exist to me.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by lazide on Sunday May 28, 2023 @04:42PM (#36107592)
The assumption here though is that there is not a situation where lockdowns are not only entirely appropriate, but would be uncontroversial except for a tiny majority. But there are trivial examples where it would be.

Like outbreaks of:

- Smallpox

- Ebola

- Weaponized Anthrax

- Some other novel bug with high fatality rates.

You don't have to go very far back to figure out WHY the laws being used were put in place. Even in the 60's-70's, if someone had Measles they'd be in enforced quarantine in their house along with the rest of their family until it cleared. Because not doing that kills people. Innocent people. Often a lot more innocent people than the original infected, all because someone got selfish and couldn't control what they were doing.

Look at the number of people killed by Typhoid Mary [https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3959940/]

That people are angry is very true. But frankly they'd be angry regardless. It doesn't stop the very real reason why society needs to protect itself.

Then the discussion comes down to 'when is the societally acceptable threshold for measures to be taken'.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by disambiguation on Saturday May 27, 2023 @08:38PM (#36099956)
I think the sentiment here applies generally. The world would be a much kinder place if we embraced radical cooperation. Why wait for disaster to strike before we start working together? But humans are egotistical by nature. That goes not only for the individuals that defied mandates, but for the policy makers too.

I think it's hard to define the "greater good" and even harder to tell who represents it. If you want to have the kind of cooperation you're talking about, it first requires trust. The data confirms trust makes a difference when you compare vaccine uptake in countries like Japan vs. Russia.

There's certainly much to be fed up about, but we can at least derive some practical questions from this experience.

* What was the source of distrust during the pandemic? Was it legitimate or illegitimate?

* Have our institutions earned trust since then so we can do better next time around?

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by revelio on Sunday May 28, 2023 @07:17AM (#36103058)
> The world would be a much kinder place if we embraced radical cooperation.

It would be a horrific dystopia as everyone who tried to implement that has found. Competitive and free socialists always outcompete "radically cooperative" societies because the latter is always implemented through violence and coercion. There's no such thing as "radically cooperative" and also kind, the two are incompatible.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by peteradio on Sunday May 28, 2023 @11:16AM (#36104730)
Good god, things get better when people advocate for themselves aka griping.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by hedora on Sunday May 28, 2023 @01:57PM (#36106239)
> I’m down with learning and evaluating. I’m down with building a better society from our pain.

No offense, but from the first part of your comment, it is clear you were part of the problem, not the solution, on this front.

We did all the things you suggest after the last pandemic. The findings strongly cautioned against attempting another lockdown. For covid, that advice was ignored, and now we are seeing excess deaths comparable to the “isolate just the most vulnerable, and get it over with in a month or two” approach, along with huge economic and societal costs from the lockdowns.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by piloto_ciego on Monday May 29, 2023 @09:10PM (#36120076)
This is revisionist nonsense in America. We didn’t do a damn thing here and 1m people died. We didn’t have real lockdowns here, we had 1 year of remote school but, beyond that not much.

It was perhaps the single greatest tragedy in America since WWII and we basically said “think of the economy!” and happily sent everyone back after a very limited period of time.

We learned nothing.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by faffffaf on Sunday May 28, 2023 @03:19PM (#36106879)
>the inconvenience

Oh hell no. I did not live through an "inconvenience". I and my kids now inhabit a world that will deal with the societal and economic damage for many years.

And no, I'm not just going to let slide a historically unprecedented, in scope and scale, change in citizen/government dynamics, and for a disease where you couldn't even begin to question the official narrative without being branded an evil anti-vaxxer.

We absolutely need to analyse what was done, and sort the panicked, fear-driven polices from what was useful.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by lazide on Sunday May 28, 2023 @04:34PM (#36107506)
So maybe analyze it instead of leading with the conclusion first? Don't forget to come up with a plausible better concrete alternative so we can compare/contrast.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by faffffaf on Sunday May 28, 2023 @05:37PM (#36108046)
Sorry, where did I present a conclusion?
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by lazide on Sunday May 28, 2023 @06:09PM (#36108264)
In the tone
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by faffffaf on Monday May 29, 2023 @12:41AM (#36110727)
And my "tone" reaches what conclusion?
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by lazide on Monday May 29, 2023 @12:56AM (#36110798)
That someone deserves to be punished.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by terminatornet on Sunday May 28, 2023 @08:02PM (#36109044)
i swear, with the exception of china, no country has had anything remotely resembling a lockdown since early 2021. what are you still complaining about? you won, no one likes a sore winner.
Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by faffffaf on Monday May 29, 2023 @12:40AM (#36110708)
Where I live (Wales, UK), we had "local lockdowns" (where citizens were not allowed to leave they county they lived in) until late 2021. Even without that, there were still significant restrictions in place on our daily lives, like in many other places.

>what are you still complaining about? you won, no one likes a sore winner.

"Won" means that we are all allowed out of our houses?

I'm complaining about the damage that has been done.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by terminatornet on Monday May 29, 2023 @12:15PM (#36115314)
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/27/long-covid-c...

weird, this headline doesn't say lockdowns costing workers up to £1.5bn in lost income. But i'm sure you're very concerned about that damage too.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by tomhoward on Monday May 29, 2023 @03:49AM (#36111718)
Melbourne, Australia had government imposed lockdowns for most of late May to late October 2021.

https://www.platinumaccounting.com.au/blog/melbourne-lockdow...

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by ForOldHack on Sunday May 28, 2023 @04:21PM (#36107396)
>Global proportions... So you agree its a pandemic?

It fit the logistics curve to <0.1%, except for super spreader events, which afterwards, it still was very close.

All the policies, were designed around herd immunity which maximizes deaths, except for the WHO which fallowed Fauchi.

An acquaintance of mine, M, lost 19 family members to the pandemic. My family, mostly very well educated, went super paranoid, and we only had two late Omichron infections.

I am sorry it was hard for everyone, I wish we followed proticalls.

You are a commenter, for whom I read ever post.

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by ForOldHack on Sunday May 28, 2023 @04:35PM (#36107510)
Just read this: "If covid had a high mortality rate we would almost all be dead. Next time we may not be so lucky" -isetprettygirlsonfire