Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre-Covid forecasts

Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by someNameIG on Saturday May 27, 2023 @05:21PM (#36098449)

Here in Australia our interventions were longer and more sever that that of the US, our excess deaths are about 4 times less than youse over there.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusDownunder/comments/13pgt...

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Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by zmgsabst on Saturday May 27, 2023 @07:52PM (#36099652)

Sorry for the slow response, I wanted to investigate the data before responding —

Here is a chart listing their cumulative mortality, from the OECD dataset. Measured as fractions of their current populations. This chart assumes all COVID deaths are excess (which undercounts real excess).

USA pop: 334,814,000

AUS pop: 26,479,000

https://zmichaelgehlke.com/images/mortality/covid-mortality-...

Total excess is pink; COVID deaths (total) are orange; non-COVID attributable excess is blue.

A few points:

- COVID deaths are about 4x lower, but excess deaths around 3x

- there’s more non-COVID attributable excess than COVID deaths in AUS

- the USA has higher per capita expected mortality than AUS, as well; by about 1.5x

See here:

https://zmichaelgehlke.com/images/mortality/all-mortality-co...

I’m not sure I’d count this to interventions, which when directly measured seem to provide lower benefits, versus the fact US healthcare is questionable and the US unhealthy in ways dangerous during COVID — as measured by expected mortality being higher.

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Re:Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre... by enslavedrobot on Sunday May 28, 2023 @12:55PM (#36105740)

Take a look at Sweden's cumulative excess deaths.

https://www.thelocal.se/20230310/fact-check-did-sweden-have-...

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