News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by malfist on Thursday April 02, 2026 @01:14PM (#47617221)
An passive investors are going to get hosed by this thanks to NASDAQ cooking the rules to favor Elon and his band of misfits.

No longer will there be a year of price discovery for index funds, 15 days. Meaning index funds have to buy it at the peak of the hype cycle. Will be a huge wealth transfer from mom and pop retirement accounts to the ultra wealthy.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by taurath on Thursday April 02, 2026 @01:40PM (#47617601)
When index funds became such a default I knew they’d change the rules.

They’re taking everything thats not nailed down. A wealth tax is the only way, it cannot continue like this.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by jaredklewis on Thursday April 02, 2026 @03:54PM (#47619375)
Geez this comment is a melodramatic non sequitur.

There's no rule you have to own QQQ and indeed most people don't. There are thousands of low cost ETFs that provide passive exposure to the market. If this new rule bothers you, be like most people and buy one of those instead of QQQ. Problem solved.

Like sure, let's improve our tax systems (as an aside, I would say there are many more efficient and progressive options than a wealth tax, but whatever), but I don't see how there is even a tangential link between that topic and the NDX rule change.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by yabutlivnWoods on Thursday April 02, 2026 @04:22PM (#47619683)
As soon as you try to do something more efficient than:

mv some_rich_ppl_money some_poor_ppl

You're making it more inefficient; any other hop in such a system is inefficiency.

Such a tiny minority of real people are not that important to the species. Maybe that important to some mind palace of some contemporary meat suits but they're going to die anyway; kicking the can down the road for future people. If we can fuck the future, fuck us then. Our existence is just as forfeitable

My neighbors and family have been expressing such. If we're just going to screw the next generation via environmental collapse and serfdom to rich overlords they opt to give up on the living enabling it

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by tripletao on Thursday April 02, 2026 @04:36PM (#47619838)
If you already own highly appreciated QQQ in a taxable account then your options are limited, since moving to a different ETF would realize the capital gain. It may be preferable to hold even if you think you're losing money buying SpaceX at an inflated price, if selling would lose even more in taxes.

If you own an ETF that buys SpaceX but without overweighting vs. float, then you're not contributing to the inflated price in that sense. You're still buying at the inflated price though, so the NASDAQ rule change still affects you indirectly.

I guess the point of the "wealth tax" comment is that any higher taxation of the wealthiest individuals would reduce their power to shape the rules to their favor, and a wealth tax is potentially harder to avoid than income taxes. I think most prior attempts just made them emigrate, though.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by underlipton on Thursday April 02, 2026 @08:03PM (#47621813)
We'll happily take the exit tax.
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by ddp26 on Thursday April 02, 2026 @02:56PM (#47618680)
Got a source on this? I didn't take into account in this forecast that public markets could be very inefficient in this way.
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by conorcleary on Thursday April 02, 2026 @03:00PM (#47618712)
oh baby, that's the just 'new' way they screw ya
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by gigatexal on Thursday April 02, 2026 @02:02PM (#47617931)
Yeah imma get out of index and hold my basket and just rebalance. This is dumb. Why bend the rules for a trillionaire?
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by Nevermark on Thursday April 02, 2026 @03:12PM (#47618863)
> Why bend the rules[?]

> for a trillionaire[!]

This writes itself. It shouldn't, but "should" as a concept needs a lot of work.

And even that isn't accurate. They are not bending the rules for a trillionaire, they are maintaining the consistency more systemic rules. This is how it has always been. We can all point to real or perceived ethical islands. They certainly exist, and are worth creating and preserving. But for now, the sea still sets the rules, and the sea is deep. For the deeper system, island visibility is a useful distraction. Sometimes something heavy moves near the surface and we misinterpret visibility as exception.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by gigatexal on Thursday April 02, 2026 @03:18PM (#47618930)
Did you get lost and start writing a poem? What’s all this about the “sea”? Fine. Let me turn down my anti-Elon-ness for a bit and caveat that the timing of these changes coinciding with this listing is suspicious, no? Grant me that at least. And then we can, with new found common ground, investigate the motives behind such a change.
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by Nevermark on Thursday April 02, 2026 @03:46PM (#47619278)
Lol. Yeah, I am tired and need a nap. Half unconscious over focus. Pay no mind!
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by Nevermark on Thursday April 02, 2026 @06:05PM (#47620780)
Nap achieved.

> Grant me that at least

Granted, indeed, and with the summarily bestowed honor of our royal favor.

Yes. The changes for Elon are exactly what they look like. Preferred treatment in exchange for the priveledge of being paid vast sums to serve him.

My sober point is that this is absolute par for the course. Every whale gets this treatment. Elon can take his business somewhere else, and expects something for not doing so.

The exception here is not a bent rule. But that the special treatment his spending power "merits" is so enormous, that the proportional conflict-of-interest sacrifice, is unusually visible.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by gigatexal on Thursday April 02, 2026 @07:05PM (#47621359)
because it's the way things are done doesn't mean it's right ... but it's not like money or capital has ever been moral. I see the point.
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by gruez on Thursday April 02, 2026 @02:04PM (#47617973)
Who's "they"? Billionaires? Wall st? SpaceX insiders and investors?
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by motbus3 on Thursday April 02, 2026 @02:21PM (#47618185)
By now, questioning "who are they" is naive or plain weak.
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by gruez on Thursday April 02, 2026 @02:49PM (#47618576)
Someone who can't articulate who the villains are out of a pre-selected list and has to fall back to personal attacks is pretty "weak" as well.
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by Teever on Thursday April 02, 2026 @03:03PM (#47618757)
If you were to apply the principle of charity[0] to the person you originally asked the question to, who do you think that they would mean by the word 'they' in this context?

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principle_of_charity

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by gruez on Thursday April 02, 2026 @03:28PM (#47619052)
>who do you think that they would mean by the word 'they' in this context?

It's really not clear, which is why I listed 3 plausible options. I'm also not going to bother attacking an imaginary position and be accused of "strawman" or whatever.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by scythe on Thursday April 02, 2026 @02:43PM (#47618484)
The unknown subject is a valid construction in language. It is not necessary to be able to answer "who's they?". It is semantically equivalent to saying "I knew the rules would be changed."

There are also perfectly ordinary situations in which this pattern is used to imply the influence of an unknown party. "They built a bridge over the river." Clearly the speaker does not believe that bridges over rivers construct themselves. She doesn't need to know who built the bridge.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by gruez on Thursday April 02, 2026 @02:47PM (#47618553)
>There are also perfectly ordinary situations in which this construction is used to infer the influence of an unknown party. "They built a bridge over the river." Clearly the speaker does not believe that bridges over rivers construct themselves. She doesn't need to know who built the bridge.

This excuse only works if who built the bridge isn't central to the discussion. Otherwise this is just generic conspiratorial thinking that we're being oppressed by The Elites™.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by throwway120385 on Thursday April 02, 2026 @03:08PM (#47618813)
Aren't we, though? Like it's hard not to argue that there's one or more groups of people that get together at lunches and dinners and galas and have ongoing projects to do things like institute rule changes at NASDAQ that effectively require index funds to take on outsize risk from a known-overvalued IPO just in time for that IPO to happen.

To understand why this isn't a conspiracy of a sort by some "elite" group of people to take money from 401ks and IRAs, you'd have to argue that there's a good reason to shorten the window that outweighs the reason the window exists. The fact remains that many many IPOs crater within a few months. The rule change seems to exist to leave small low-effort investors holding the bag.

Just because we're paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get us.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by gruez on Thursday April 02, 2026 @03:38PM (#47619183)
>Like it's hard not to argue that there's one or more groups of people that get together at lunches and dinners and galas and have ongoing projects to do things like institute rule changes at NASDAQ that effectively require index funds to take on outsize risk from a known-overvalued IPO just in time for that IPO to happen.

It's also not hard to think of half a dozen other groups that could possibly benefit and plausibly have enough clout to steer things in their favor, hence why the need to make a specific claim rather than beating around the bush a vague "they" that can't be refuted.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by scythe on Thursday April 02, 2026 @04:46PM (#47619934)
>This excuse only works if who built the bridge isn't central to the discussion.

It isn't central to the discussion. The appearance of corruption is clear; nailing down the culprit is difficult. It isn't reasonable to expect people to have a theory of corruption in order to complain about it.

>Otherwise this is just generic conspiratorial thinking

The perception of corruption is not a conspiracy theory. Corruption is an ordinary financially motivated crime, while conspiracy theories usually involve some kind of grandiose or mystical objective ("new world order").

Anyway, the question is moot because the only possible answer is "the regulatory authorities". We know who makes the rules! I just didn't want to tolerate this kind of fallacious nitpicking.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by whattheheckheck on Thursday April 02, 2026 @02:24PM (#47618219)
Open your eyes? Everyone on the top 1000 Forbes and at trumps inauguration?
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by nutjob2 on Thursday April 02, 2026 @02:17PM (#47618125)
Yes.
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by tliptay on Thursday April 02, 2026 @02:05PM (#47617991)
Wow! This comment inspired me to dig deeper.

After 20+ years in the market, today I learned: "The S&P 500 is a float-adjusted, market-capitalization-weighted index."

So presumably an S&P 500 index fund is not disadvantaged, since it is tracking a float-adjusted index, i.e. the weight of SpaceX will be tiny if its float is tiny.

Or, is there a nuance that I'm missing?

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by gruez on Thursday April 02, 2026 @02:10PM (#47618049)
>So presumably an S&P 500 index fund is not disadvantaged, since it is tracking a float-adjusted index, i.e. the weight of SpaceX will be tiny if its float is tiny.

Nasdaq already caved. FTSE and S&P are supposedly considering it.

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/03/31/index-providers...

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by AlotOfReading on Thursday April 02, 2026 @03:04PM (#47618773)
Low float, large cap companies will get a 5x multiplier.
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by Zigurd on Friday April 03, 2026 @08:02AM (#47625708)
The SpaceX float is small in proportion to a ridonculous valuation.
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by JumpCrisscross on Thursday April 02, 2026 @01:40PM (#47617591)
> An passive investors are going to get hosed by this thanks to NASDAQ cooking the rules

I’m genuinely confused how a passive investor winds up tracking the NASDAQ 100 versus a broader index.

Also, if you’re picking and choosing your exposures, you aren’t passive.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by lxgr on Thursday April 02, 2026 @02:10PM (#47618047)
That sounds like a "no true scotsman" argument. Even passive investors need to pick some methodology of how to pick assets and how to relatively weigh them, and while you can make that as mathematically simple as possible, it's arguably an active decision.

Or would you say that e.g. an ETF tracking MSCI ex-US is not a passive fund?

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by bitmasher9 on Thursday April 02, 2026 @02:25PM (#47618231)
I’d also argue that "passive investor" applies more to the buy and hold strategy when paired with low engagement in the account (few transactions, or scheduled transactions).

I’d consider someone that puts $50 into Coca Cola stock every paycheck a passive investor

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by JumpCrisscross on Thursday April 02, 2026 @04:16PM (#47619608)
> I’d consider someone that puts $50 into Coca Cola stock every paycheck a passive investor

They’re not. Passive vs active are terms of art in investing. They refer to the degree selection effect is at play.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by JumpCrisscross on Thursday April 02, 2026 @06:58PM (#47621284)
> would you say that e.g. an ETF tracking MSCI ex-US is not a passive fund?

Assets aren’t passive or not; investing styles are. The degree to which one’s returns earn from, or are expected to earn from, selection effects determines if you’re investing passively or actively. If I say trade SPYs, I’m an active investor. If I buy and hold a custom broad-market benchmark, I’m passive. Buying MSCI ex-US without a hedge is an active investment decision. If it’s bought and held it’s more like a passive strategy over time, provided the U.S. doesn’t dramatically over or underperform the global markets.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by malfist on Thursday April 02, 2026 @02:32PM (#47618335)
A broader index that tracks the NASDAQ tracks the NASDAQ 100 and is impacted by this rule.

You buy VTI, you're impacted.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by JumpCrisscross on Thursday April 02, 2026 @04:40PM (#47619880)
> You buy VTI, you're impacted

VTI “seeks to track the performance of the CRSP US Total Market Index” [1]. Not the NASDAQ 100. It will include the latter’s components. But it shouldn’t reference its weights.

[1] https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profi...

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by lxgr on Thursday April 02, 2026 @05:08PM (#47620212)
That index seems to add new listings even more quickly (5 trading days!), so this effect doesn’t seem to be easy to escape just by switching indexes. MSCI is also on the order of days.
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by JumpCrisscross on Thursday April 02, 2026 @06:40PM (#47621135)
> That index seems to add new listings even more quickly

I’m not recommending that index. Just saying it’s separate from the NASDAQ 100. You can absolutely find a total-market index biased towards mature, seasoned issuers.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by yandie on Thursday April 02, 2026 @01:23PM (#47617327)
Now I need a fund that will honor a year of price discovery rather than 15 days. Any recommendations?
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by malfist on Thursday April 02, 2026 @01:25PM (#47617349)
Legally, any fund that tracks the NASDAQ 100 must follow the rules set by NASDAQ, so you'd want something that is neither a total market index, nor tracks the NASDAQ. Something like an S&P500 index would work
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by JumpCrisscross on Thursday April 02, 2026 @01:41PM (#47617604)
> Legally, any fund that tracks the NASDAQ 100 must follow the rules set by NASDAQ

No? Contractually, maybe. But legally you can do whatever you want with index constructions.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by lxgr on Thursday April 02, 2026 @02:01PM (#47617921)
Are indexes not covered by copyright, even if you don't mention the underlying data source by name?

If they are, you'd only get a license when accepting their terms.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by JumpCrisscross on Thursday April 02, 2026 @04:14PM (#47619582)
> Are indexes not covered by copyright

Index providers definitely own their trademarks. You can’t market an S&P index without paying S&P. But “the available authority indicates that copyright protection for indexes may extend to the index constituent lists but not index averages, and copyright preemption principles may limit misappropriation protection for indexes to a very narrow class of ‘hot news’ uses” [1].

> * you'd only get a license when accepting their terms*

Sure. But plenty of indices allow for mixing and matching. The terms are designed to avoid confusion—you can’t use the term NASDAQ 100 if it isn’t exactly that. More broadly, there are tons of indices and benchmark portfolios.

[1] https://www.blegalgroup.com/market-index-licensing-a-review-...

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by JumpCrisscross on Saturday April 04, 2026 @12:15AM (#47635671)
> Are indexes not covered by copyright, even if you don't mention the underlying data source by name?

If there were a good autopilot energy policy option, it would probably entail doing the opposite of whatever Germany votes to do.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by malfist on Thursday April 02, 2026 @02:02PM (#47617930)
You might be surprised to learn that the stock markets are heavily regulated.
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by JumpCrisscross on Thursday April 02, 2026 @04:07PM (#47619503)
> You might be surprised to learn that the stock markets are heavily regulated

How is this a response?

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by oa335 on Thursday April 02, 2026 @02:34PM (#47618367)
Not legally, only by contract/specification. Funds could get sued for deviating from the index, but funds generally have a decent amount of discretion in my experience in how they handle rebalancing.
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by dmoy on Thursday April 02, 2026 @01:32PM (#47617467)
What is an example nasdaq 100 fund that isn't float adjusted?
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by gruez on Thursday April 02, 2026 @02:01PM (#47617914)
>that isn't float adjusted?

AFAIK the problem is that they're lobbying the nasdaq 100 index provider to add a 5x multiplier for free float for spacex. Otherwise it would be far less controversial.

edit: https://keubiko.substack.com/p/nasdaqs-shame

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by charcircuit on Thursday April 02, 2026 @01:28PM (#47617413)
What law prevents someone from choosing to buy stocks from the NASDAQ 100 however they want for a fund?
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by dmurray on Thursday April 02, 2026 @02:13PM (#47618087)
Actively managed funds like that charge around 0.5% to 1% a year. E.g. [0] The most prominent Nasdaq ETF, QQQ, charges 0.2% [1]

Spacex will be around 4.5% of the index [2].

If you believe the thesis of the article that Spacex is about 30% overvalued, and if the only advantage your fund manager has over the rest of the market is that they will avoid Spacex, they will save you 1% of your money over the lifetime of your investment. Assuming you're saving for retirement in 30 years time, the fees will cost you 15% or more.

Maybe your fund manager finds a Spacex-level mispricing every two years. In that case, they're worth the fees. Some people will tell you nobody can beat the market. My employer among others believes very strongly in the idea that some people do make better investment decisions than average. What is certainly true is that not everyone does.

[0] https://helpcenter.ark-funds.com/what-is-the-fee-structure-e...

[1] https://www.invesco.com/qqq-etf/en/home.html

[2] https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/01/how-the-spacex-cou...

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by WalterBright on Thursday April 02, 2026 @02:39PM (#47618431)
> the idea that some people do make better investment decisions than average.

Of course some do. After all, that's what makes an "average".

Some people are taller than average, too!

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by Dylan16807 on Thursday April 02, 2026 @03:14PM (#47618888)
They mean consistently make better decisions than a baseline index investor in a way that isn't luck.

Someone can win at roulette and make more money than the average player over some measurement period, but nobody can be good at roulette (when properly implemented and stuff). Stocks are somewhat possible to be good at but results are mostly random and the fee you'd pay is usually way too much.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by WalterBright on Thursday April 02, 2026 @03:56PM (#47619403)
> They mean consistently make better decisions than a baseline index investor in a way that isn't luck.

How would you know it is or is not luck?

> roulette

Has no winning strategy - it's very different.

The winning strategy with stocks is understanding the underlying businesses better than the average investor. Peter Lynch's Magellan fund did consistently better than others because Lynch had insights others didn't. When others figured it out, Magellan's returns retreated to market levels.

I.e. investors can do better than average if they have insight others don't have and stay below the radar.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by Dylan16807 on Thursday April 02, 2026 @04:52PM (#47620029)
> How would you know it is or is not luck?

It's hard to know in the moment, but almost every promising fund has subpar long term results. Whether they lost their touch or were lucky in the first place, it means that seeking out promising funds is a very bad way to find a place to put your money.

The number of funds with significant valuable insights is low, and the number where those insights are bigger than the fees is lower.

Anyway my point was just that a big spread of outcomes doesn't prove that significantly different skill levels exist.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by dmoy on Friday April 03, 2026 @12:43PM (#47628957)
> Spacex will be around 4.5% of the index [2].

Does that article say that? I didn't see "4.5xm" mentioned anywhere. Also jow does QQQ do float adjusting? Will it do the same 5x that we're hearing nasdaq is going to do? (Which would make it what, <1%?). Or something else?

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by dmurray on Saturday April 04, 2026 @04:34AM (#47637129)
QQQ is the same as Nasdaq, for this meaning of Nasdaq.

The article isn't a great source, agreed. But it does give this calculation:

> Oddly enough, had SpaceX entered the Nasdaq-100 with a market capitalization of $1.75 trillion on Friday, March 27 [assuming the new rules (?)], it would have supplanted Tesla as the fifth-largest holding in the benchmark. The electric vehicle stock accounts for 3.8% of the Invesco ETFs.

So it would come in somewhere above 3.8%, by those calculations. And it depends on market prices from day to day. Not much changes about the argument above if you make it 3% or 6%, holding constant the assumption that it's 30% overvalued.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by dmoy on Saturday April 04, 2026 @02:11PM (#47641667)
I was mostly confused because the article made 0 mention of the float adjustment or the changes to nasdaq float adjusting that is proposed (5x float, which would still put SpaceX at <20% of its market cap, or <1% of the index, no?)

It is just not addressed at all in the article, which makes it seem like they're assuming it's 100% of market cap.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by davey48016 on Thursday April 02, 2026 @01:31PM (#47617457)
You can make a mutual fund or ETF with any stocks you want, you just can't call it a NASDAQ 100 fund if you're not tracking the NASDAQ 100 index.
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by lxgr on Thursday April 02, 2026 @02:25PM (#47618248)
It's an interesting question whether you could legally track the NASDAQ 100 without calling it that, or something very similar, e.g. "NASDAQ 100, but with a one year delay for new listings".

But assuming it is: How would you even call it, and how would you describe your methodology in the prospectus? "Tech 100 (compare with e.g. NASDAQ)"?

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by tonyedgecombe on Thursday April 02, 2026 @01:57PM (#47617861)
Is that really true? It doesn’t sound likely to me. Then again I’m often surprised by this stuff.
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by mandevil on Thursday April 02, 2026 @03:35PM (#47619151)
In order to call it a NASDAQ 100 Tracking Fund you need to pay the NASDAQ a licensing fee (same with S&P500, Wilshire 5000, etc.). The contract you have with NASDAQ will determine exactly how much freedom you have to change rules and still call it a NASDAQ 100 fund. I've never seen a licensing agreement, don't know anything about how they would typically read.

There is also the concept of "Index Tracking Error". No fund can perfectly mimic the index, and that is expected and understood, but the goal is generally to have the tracking error <0.1%- 1% would be a bad track. And so an index fund could take the risk that they will have a tracking error and delay picking up SpaceX even after it joins the official index, but then if it goes up they will look worse relative to their real competitors, the other NASDAQ 100 tracking index funds. If SpaceX goes down, of course, they will have positive tracking error, but I'm not sure how much potential investors would value that. SpaceX would be something like 4% of the NASDAQ 100 at it's announced expected market cap, so a 10% movement by SpaceX would be enough on its own to get you into the notable tracking error range if you didn't have any exposure to it.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by bluecalm on Thursday April 02, 2026 @01:42PM (#47617634)
You need enough customers to make it profitable at reasonably low expense ratio.
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by stouset on Thursday April 02, 2026 @02:28PM (#47618291)
They’re also reducing the float requirements, which is absolutely insane. As a passive investor with significant assets outside of tax-protected retirement accounts, I am beyond livid. If I have to switch investments to move away from the rules being changed out from under me, it will result in enormous tax consequences.

I don’t tend to let my emotions out this much here, but utterly fuck everything about this administration, and fuck anyone who voted in favor of it.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by scottyah on Thursday April 02, 2026 @03:07PM (#47618809)
What about those that made this administration so desirable for so many?
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by stouset on Thursday April 02, 2026 @06:10PM (#47620823)
If you’re referring to the manosphere podcasters, pseudoscientists, cranks, and conspiracy theorists that came out in droves to support him, they can get fucked too.

If you’re referring to Biden, who all but guaranteed that Trump would win a second term by having zero sense of urgency or concern, zero drive to push through popular but sweeping changes, zero real vision, falling back to politics-as-usual, and topping it all off with disastrously running for a second term until pulling out at almost the last possible second, then yes, him too, and I will personally never forgive him for stepping in when Bernie had momentum.

For anyone else, it’s hard for me to get as worked up over them. Uninspiring, ineffective, bargain basement levels of corruption is upsetting but not a reason to put fire to everything that has put this country and its residents in a position of economic power, peace and security, and as the diplomatic head of the world. If I could wave a magic wand and strip the right to vote from anyone who thought so and acted upon that belief, I wouldn’t give it a second of hesitation.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by KK7NIL on Thursday April 02, 2026 @03:03PM (#47618752)
Nothing like a forced tax event to get the people rioting in the streets!
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by throwway120385 on Thursday April 02, 2026 @03:15PM (#47618892)
I think you need to consider who is being taxed. I doubt very much that OP is part of the class of people who really should be paying more tax. Rather, they're concerned about their retirement assets. Is that a good outcome here if it applied to everyone?
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by KK7NIL on Thursday April 02, 2026 @05:30PM (#47620452)
You seem to have read some sort of political opinion into my post that is not actually there.

I was just making a joke about the outrage OP is showing, I wasn't making a judgment on whether they get taxed too much or too little.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by stouset on Thursday April 02, 2026 @03:58PM (#47619425)
This is just one more of an endless list of inexcusable, indefensible, corrupt and incompetent acts this government has performed and/or enabled.

In this specific case I am retired and I have done this based on financial projections assuming the game continues to be played the same. So it hits closer to home for me. But it’s a far bigger problem than just me—this is looting the retirement savings of millions of Americans—and it is far from the only thing about this administration and those who have supported it to make me absolutely livid.

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by lxgr on Thursday April 02, 2026 @02:06PM (#47617999)
Huh, TIL, thank you.

Seems like MSCI can add new large constituents very quickly as well [1], so to remain neutral to the frenzy until a price has been discovered, one might need to actively short.

[1] e.g. https://www.msci.com/eqb/methodology/meth_docs/MSCI_GIMIMeth...

Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by cr125rider on Thursday April 02, 2026 @02:21PM (#47618173)
Does the hype cycle even last 15 days in 2026? It seems like they stabilize after a day or two. Happy to be proven wrong here…
Re:A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses by frm88 on Friday April 03, 2026 @03:45AM (#47624165)
The S&P500 will make an exception, too. Patrick Boyle made a video analysing this and pointing to consequences https://youtu.be/8rS3fTbC7TE?si=uYZU230dzqqwp1Np