motbus3

I understand nothing but I want to join the conversation.

It seems to me that nvidia bubble is still to burst. There is a trust me bro circle where Nvidia somehow sold GPU to itself so it can host someone else's models. Maybe three years ago or a little more they announced they plan to move away from consumer end and focus on cloud. Back then it did not make much sense because everybody though "how the f Nvidia will manage clouds like AWS?" And their business model seems to me that it is a shared risk model where Nvidia don't "own" the cloud but pay for its GPU to have that market share. I think it would make much sense if the thin layer those, how did the greedy musk said, neocloud/cloudfronts or whatever, were not so brittle due to the lack of market demand.

I have the impression they had a gold strategy for them but for some reason they rushed it too much and now they broke the market before they could profit from it.

I can imagine that if they didn't hoard their own resources to create scarcity artificiality, they would possibly have a stronger position in the market. I can only think they did this because (A) they know the current government will bail them out and (B) someone was worried that China could hoard those GPUs first.

But as I said, I don't understand much of the topic, but it seems to me they are try to get as much money as soon as possible and that looks scam-ish to me. They all put investment rounds too close to each other, started creating concerning stories and "rogue" AIs at the same time. Maybe I'm being too paranoid, but so far those guys have been pulling some hat tricks and I think I know who will pay the bill

That's one of them. Also not paying back in taxes is a way where you contribute less to the system that generates you more.

This hits people much more than only getting less money.

If you go to a restaurant and some corrupt people, criminals, or people who clearly are working against the folks, people would leave but not after complaining about the guest. And if the owner does not send the guest away, he we'll be met by empty tables for weeks or months.

But this is just an example. Unfortunately, Argentinean people are now brain-dead and they are quite lenient to corruption and puppet governments anywhere. I find it funny for them to complain about Malvines/Falklands while their president is American.

Not sure who pretends to work. I work unhealthy amounts since I was 15, and that was a long long long time ago

Don't quote me on that, but people are saying that despite American companies are getting more money, people are getting even less. Or that's my understanding. Happy to be corrected though

You will own nothing and you better like it

We are not sure yet. As every tech we show the benefits first then we see the cracks.

I think we might see more soon. I think the fact the are hiding the harness and the "real" model is a signal they are not confident they will keep improving. openai reported 95%+ on some benchmarks with an unpublished harness but when running with public harness and public model it is not a 30%+ improvement it is a 6% if that much...

I really wonder why they need to do that

Have you heard about Argentinean escraches?

Any french would care to explain?

Tell me in 1 year about it.

If this is real, this is ridiculous. This would make most internet businesses even more unaccessible

It is despicable that large language models have depleted the content of Stack Overflow. Even before the advent of LLMs, online communities were plagued by individuals who would pointlessly complain and downvote questions or answers, as well as those who would post low-quality content solely to farm points, sometimes even using sock-puppet accounts to inflate their own metrics. It was great when they offered prizes and similar incentives, but they were essentially seeking free labor; once they established themselves as a primary reference, they discontinued the practice, which is understandable.

The only thing community driven I used nowadays is for cooking because LLM recipes are always the most generic thing. (Though I use LLMs for converting metrics or question if something goes wrong)

I feel it is a bit naive to think Jansen would be a spy. He would hire all the spies and be the boss of both sides. It is not like he has to choose it

*what they did to coding

Software engineer is far from be solved

You can't say they are spending 10s of millions on that. First, you cannot calculate their usage cost by what they charge you. Second, if the prompts from the math researches were not there they would not be able to solve the problem, and they know it, and that's why they are trying to silence people or make noise enough so people don't realise what they are doing

Your comment about academics is not based. If you take the time to read any of the papers they published you will see most if not all are pure garbage nonsense.

Read Terence Tao about ai, or anything about the "supposedly" improvement in the FFT. Their claims are all nothing burgers.

I think OP is saying that the work should not be credit to OpenAI. They are basically rehashing the research from someone else. Previously with the fluid problem they sang glories to themselves only to be exposed. They not only tried to shut up the researches but also displayed several concerning behaviours.

There is nothing that guarantees now that they will not steal your ideas and publish themselves.

By now I want them to be sure on what they say they did before they claim they did. It all sounds like propaganda to me. From the I dont know how many works they published earlier, almost none was a significant improvement or proof. And the one that was, was clearly stolen from someone.

I dont know why it is taking so long for investors to catch up with this suspicious behaviour

I think you are on to something maybe. I also think there is a key part where Microsoft and others would hire people so nobody would. I know cases where people were hired and stayed on irrelevant or useless projects for years. Because of non compete agreements this means a good professional would stay few years out of the hands of the competition.

I think now LLMs might play a part of those dismissals but also I think those companies are embracing for thin cows season.

The record profits and etc are the last few for a while I am guessing. My guess they might have up to a year of positive numbers as consequence of deals and layoffs up to this moment.

I think at some point it will be clearer what are the real productivity gains of LLMs. My opinion is that there is a gain but we are already on the phase where there is a deceleration on the improvements and the costs have not yet caught up. The reason for this is the frequent change in the reporting of results. Now they hide the models, they hide the harnesses, they hide the results. They would not be doing that if they were 100% confident it was working perfectly. Also they have been putting too much effort on blocking other initiatives by hiring important researchers with no clear proposition on what they will be doing. One might argue that when you hire Karpathy you never know what he will might be doing anyway, but I digress. We also see some of the huge investment funds starting to switch strategies.

Unless there is no breakthrough, we might see LLMs results in a couple of years. The company I work for and others from friends I know have all started restrictions on costs. Some even started hiring people back.

My prediction is that the low AI cost per token era will end very soon when investors realise that the market is broken and they want their money back for leverage themselves or other businesses.

I even think this is why Elon Musk is merging all his companies. He might making himself artificially richer, but I think he is focusing his efforts to smart weapons and robots.

I think there will no way back to the inflation of people as in 2020/2021 but probably we are going back to early 2010s number.

Not saying that this alleviates anything, but Grok was doing even worse up to the other day. We need to remember to use the same rule for both cases

Agree. I think slowly companies and governments are ditching US tech. Many companies relied on US tech rather than Chinese with worried of CCP intervention and now it is clear that it will be the same with US tech.

I understand that US is migrating to a no friends policy, but I don't think its internal market is nearly ready to support it if clients start to go away.

Anecdotally, I talked to people in a recent event and the common topic was "what we are doing to avoid a blackout of US tech." People on big companies have reserved hardware and alternative software and are scaling down Amazon and Microsoft solutions at a fast pace. People on smaller companies are doing similar strategies but relying on a multivendor strategy.

I think this was inconceivable 3 years ago. Every company in Europe and Asian would gladly pay for amazon for cloud services and now they are using AI to migrate out the lock-ins.

We are seeing American LLM companies more and more relying on "secretive" methods to increase scores and this can only mean that they are not evolving fast enough. The gaps between the reported benchmarks and measured ones are increasing. It might be "safety" concerns or whatever, but I don't buy it.

Like Musk, Altman and Amodei have been overpromising every time they need more money and each time they need more money and now they internet is poisoned with their own content and they can't even trust any sources anymore.

I think if you do iterate on cycles of development and hardening maybe this can be done, but LLM code, specially by Claude, has been too verbose for me. Other models are less

i reduced my claude expenditure in 80% using other models.

neither did google or any other american company did open source anything for the greater good there is no point in this comment.

there is no point of saying 'the chinese' everyone will do it because it was proven that any political frills might cause an attempt to damage your system.

I dont know when, but i think if you keep menacing of taking technology of people hands for any political reason will be a reason for people to not use it or to rely in a more reasonable party.

I read it but I got curious who is centreforcities.org

The whois marks everything to private

Then you can follow things and you can see they receive 1.10m in donations https://register-of-charities.charitycommission.gov.uk/en/ch...

And there you can see this guy as the charity chairman

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/14/nigel-hugil...

And so he is a house developer? Already sounds a bit of conflict of interest. But then let's check who is the company listed

And Gatsby Is listed as a main source of income for both company and charity parts

Which is a charity by the Sainsbury family https://register-of-charities.charitycommission.gov.uk/en/ab...

I will dig this when I have time but this centreforcities is not an unbiased source of information

We were hiring for a very well paid position and naturally we were expecting certain skills. But even though we were quiet lenient on the skills we required some skills to be there.

I would say that we probably would want someone around 40s or older for that position applied (or I guess so because we never get to ask those things)

I was in the step before the interview with the CEO of the company, and we approved 10-20% of the candidates. First steps were approved at maybe the same ratio, and the CEO decided not to hire anyone in the UK after trying for a long time.

We had only maybe 6 candidates for the last phase, and out of those, there were only 2 candidates we really thought could be approved.

I will say thought, we were committing a sin that now many companies are doing. We were expecting too much from the same person. I am sure that one person would be able to hold what that position required but I don't think the professional with that particular set of skills is easily available in the market. I guess money wise the company did not want to hire more than one person, but if it was me, I would have hired a senior instead of an specialist and a junior.

It never was. They were pretty serious.

I don't know about Boston case, but in Ireland it is common for developers to build and investment funds to buy it all in closed door meetings. So your only option is to rent. In other places of the world where I lived, it was common to rent a completely different region to only find out later the company letting the house/apartment belonged to the same group.

In large cities, housing is now being built specifically for rent, and there are many early sales opportunities available exclusively to companies. In certain cities of Ireland, it is common for a new block of apartments to be sold out within the first hour. You get in a queue to visit on the first day and you don't even have a chance.

Different from others, I don't think the price is fair. But also I don't know the cost structure well enough, I can have only an educated guess.

But what I am definitely afraid of is that they will want to charge games per hour anyway. The talks that consoles will cost 2000 USD is part of it. They don't want you to own things anymore.

You can't buy a house anymore, because they rather buy and keep it to create shortages and make you pay an absurd rent.

We should be talking more about how taxes should fit into this world where they are positioning themselves to not allow people to have things, not even the basic.

For examples, in the housing thing, it should not only have higher taxes for keeping properties empty but also it should be exponential otherwise it will become a cost to people. Making it exponential make it unviable. Also, investment funds should be much more regulated and should require approval for every transaction above a threshold (which imo should be small to close loopholes). This will slow things down enough.

The demand will still exist but companies will fill the gap. We should not be relying on one single investment fund to control your health, housing and employment.

We also should be discussing on closing all the gaps that ultra rich are using to not contribute back to the system they explore. They became leeches/parasites and not putting back the amount they should is causing them to be able to break the system more and more.

The only Pacific way right now is to boy;cott these big fellas. They got to comfortable saying that we are trash and the blame of everything is on us while doing everything they can to not even pay basic rights to employees.

I also think that if you know a trillionaire employee with a white collar, they also should get bit more pressure.

I know someone working in a company which recently caused hundreds of "collateral" deaths, and for him and everyone in the company, it is not their fault they exploded innocent people. We need to put these folks back to reality, because they are the same type of trash as we are, and they don't know it.

Now I guess it is obvious why they have been building so many bunkers lately. They were definitely conspiring.

(Btw, I have a strong feeling that sxai+t might become an investment fund with several companies, but that's another conversation)