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Re:Fraud, so much fraud by testfoobar on Friday September 27, 2024 @02:22PM (#41673954)
Similar - when I was younger, I would never have suspected that a scientist was committing fraud.

As I've gotten older, I understand that Charlie Munger's observation "“Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome.” is applicable everywhere - including science.

Academic scientists' careers are driven by publishing, citations and impact. Arguably some have figured how to game the system to advance their careers. Science be damned.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by huijzer on Friday September 27, 2024 @04:21PM (#41675140)
> Academic scientists' careers are driven by publishing, citations and impact. Arguably some have figured how to game the system to advance their careers. Science be damned.

I’ve talked to multiple professors about this and I think it’s not because they don’t care about science. They just care more about their career. And I don’t blame them. It’s a slippery slope and once you notice other people who start beating you, then it’s very hard to stay on the righteous pad[note]. Heck I even myself in the PhD have written things I don’t agree with. But at some point you have to pick your battles. You cannot fight every point.

In the end I also don’t think they care that much about science. Political parties often push certain ideas more or less depending on their beliefs. And scientist know this since they will often write their own ideas such that it sounds like it solves a problem for the government. If you think about it, it’s kind of a miracle that sometimes something good is produced from all this mess. There is some beauty to that.

[note] I’m not talking about blatant fraud here but about the smaller things like accepting comments from a reviewer which you know are incorrect, or using a methodology that is the status quo but you know is highly problematic.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by jonas21 on Friday September 27, 2024 @05:48PM (#41675897)
> They just care more about their career.

It's not even that.

In most fields, you need lab space and equipment and grad students to get stuff done. And to pay for that, you need funding. And to get funding, you need to publish and apply for grants.

You have to pay attention to the "career" side of things -- otherwise, you won't get to do the science at all.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by BostonFern on Friday September 27, 2024 @10:06PM (#41677312)
That’s exactly the rationale the corrupt senator uses to justify his actions in Mr. Smith Goes to Washington.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by strbean on Saturday September 28, 2024 @04:19AM (#41678757)
And yet it rings true. Sure, if everyone was a Mr. Smith it would be fine. But with poor incentive structures, people are collectively going to do what they have to do.

The same applies to police who aren't actively corrupt, but don't combat the corruption around them. The ones who do fight corruption end up fired 'with cause' at best, or forcibly committed to mental institution or killed at worst.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by cube00 on Saturday September 28, 2024 @07:34AM (#41679560)
Used in the movie Wall Street to justify insider trading too:

Bud: Lou, I got a sure thing. Anacott Steel.

Lou: No such thing, except death and taxes. Not a good company any more. No fundamentals. What's goin' on, Bud? You know something? Remember, there are no short cuts, son. Quick-buck artists come and go with every bull market. The steady players make it through the bear markets. You're a part of something here, Bud. The money you make for people creates science and research jobs. Don't sell that out.

Bud: You're right, but you gotta get to the big time first, then you can do good things.

Lou: You can't get a little bit pregnant, son.

Bud: Lou, trust me. lt's a winner. Buy it.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by sally_glance on Friday September 27, 2024 @05:35PM (#41675778)
Citizen science may be a direct response to these circumstances. When you think about it, it's basically just people who love science but _don't_ depend on it for income.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by atrettel on Friday September 27, 2024 @09:59PM (#41677275)
I have also talked to many researchers and professors about this, but to me it just seems to come down to survivorship bias. We all observe a lot of scientists who care a lot about their careers because the ones who don't focus as much on advancing their careers are no longer around. I've commented to many people at my own place of work about how I dislike the up-or-out nature of current research practices, because it incentives people to play it safe and focus on incremental ideas that get results by the end of the current funding cycle. But as other people are saying here, we need to change the incentives to reduce these kinds of behaviors. Form follows finances.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by sitkack on Friday September 27, 2024 @03:00PM (#41674341)
If humanity is to mature, we should be an open book when it comes to incentives and build a world purposefully with all incentives aligned to the outcomes we collectively agree upon.

https://fs.blog/great-talks/psychology-human-misjudgment/

Charlie Munger's Misjudgment #1: Incentive-caused Bias https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-2yIO8cnvw

https://fs.blog/bias-incentives-reinforcement/

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by dennis_jeeves2 on Friday September 27, 2024 @03:07PM (#41674409)
>outcomes we collectively agree upon.

lol, what are the chances?

The average Joe is interested in Dem vs Rep or what the latest show on Netflix.

The average researcher is worried about his livelihood, tenure etc.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by acchow on Friday September 27, 2024 @04:15PM (#41675087)
“Average joe”. Humanity evolves slowly over long periods. The average joe today is far more educated than one from 200 years ago.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by jfengel on Friday September 27, 2024 @05:43PM (#41675848)
Far more educated. But certainly not smarter.

And it's not at all clear if that education does anything other than magnify their intellectual predispositions. The smart people can make great strides, but the stupid will be stupid louder and harder. And the average may well just be... more average.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by ipaddr on Friday September 27, 2024 @06:32PM (#41676175)
IQ levels has risen on average because of nutrients, not using lead and education.

An increase in blood lead from 10 to 20 micrograms/dl was associated with a decrease of 2.6 IQ

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by jfengel on Friday September 27, 2024 @08:11PM (#41676771)
Risen by a few points. Statistically significant but not really meaningful.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by worik on Friday September 27, 2024 @06:56PM (#41676338)
> Q levels has risen on average because of...

...nobody really knows why

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by miramba on Saturday September 28, 2024 @12:58AM (#41677997)
…and to still believe that IQ levels measure something meaningful is pretty average Joe anyway. Could be the rise of videogames for all we know.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by daymanstep on Saturday September 28, 2024 @05:08AM (#41678991)
IQ score rises (Flynn effect) are most likely spurious and do not reflect any increase in actual on-the-spot problem-solving ability.

IQ scores were never intended to be used to compare across cohorts. To do so is invalid.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by mym1990 on Friday September 27, 2024 @03:38PM (#41674717)
This is a weird take, assuming the average researcher cannot be an average Joe, and also that average people aren't also worried about their livelihood...you might want to revisit your view of the world.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by talideon on Friday September 27, 2024 @05:46PM (#41675875)
No, it's not. A researcher might an average Joe, but that doesn't mean that the average researcher is the same as the average Joe.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by mym1990 on Wednesday October 02, 2024 @04:23PM (#41724664)
The initial comment makes the 2 mutually exclusive. You reframing it doesn't change what the original comment said. You also blew past the more important of the 2 points: that regular people care about their livelihoods as well.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by mmooss on Friday September 27, 2024 @03:34PM (#41674664)
We do achieve some things, though usually not by spending time pondering questions like,

> lol, what are the chances?

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by mensetmanusman on Friday September 27, 2024 @04:39PM (#41675308)
Average Joe does not care about politics…
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by bboygravity on Friday September 27, 2024 @04:54PM (#41675431)
If one only cares about democrats vs dems (or left vs "far right" in Europe) one also doesn't REALLY care about politics.

Caring = caring to understand how the system works and how the incentives work for participants in it.

If I'm super generous I would guess maybe 0,1 percent of the population cares by that definition.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by jfengel on Friday September 27, 2024 @05:45PM (#41675863)
I think you're a little too harsh in that judgement. I'd say it's at least 1%. Possibly even 5%.

It still means that they are massively, massively outweighed by loud tribalism.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by tim333 on Friday September 27, 2024 @06:00PM (#41675970)
There's a problem that if you care, as an average person, it's hard to do much with it. Every few years you can vote left or right, which unless you happen to live in a marginal constituency or swing state, has no effect.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by nobody9999 on Friday September 27, 2024 @06:28PM (#41676152)
>Every few years you can vote left or right,

If you're talking about the US, you can vote center-right (Democratic) or far right (Republican). There is no viable left wing party in the US.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by Wyoming23 on Friday September 27, 2024 @07:28PM (#41676538)
These posts are tiresome. They all boil down to "my view should be the middle".

You could just as well claim the Democrats are far left and the republicans center left.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by kbelder on Friday September 27, 2024 @07:59PM (#41676702)
This is often done by contrasting the US with Europe, as if Europe is a political gold standard.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by rixed on Saturday September 28, 2024 @02:07AM (#41678243)
The political "spectrum" is not a range of subjective opinions, it's a range of objectively documented ideas.

I don't know how well they can fit in a unidimensional scale though.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by nobody9999 on Thursday October 10, 2024 @06:24PM (#41804188)
>These posts are tiresome. They all boil down to "my view should be the middle".

I don't claim that my views are, or should be, "the middle".

In fact, I didn't share my views at all.

Rather, I contrasted the US Republican Party with the US Democratic Party through the lens of the political spectrum.

Perhaps you think your views are "middle-of-the-road" and maybe they are. I have no idea what you think or believe.

But making the claim you did added absolutely nothing to the discussion, nor did it address anything I wrote. And more's the pity.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by rsa4046 on Friday September 27, 2024 @07:24PM (#41676526)
This can't be said often enough. We have two right wing parties in the US. That's it.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by I_am_uncreative on Saturday September 28, 2024 @12:09AM (#41677794)
From whose perspective and what are we considering right and left? The Democratic party is left of center on social issues, even compared to Europe.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by immibis on Saturday September 28, 2024 @04:54AM (#41678925)
No, it is not. Example: Both parties support the extermination of Palestinians.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by immibis on Saturday September 28, 2024 @02:06PM (#41681925)
I guess by the votes, so does HN.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by nobody9999 on Saturday September 28, 2024 @12:55PM (#41681450)
>he Democratic party is left of center on social issues, even compared to Europe.

Actually, the Democratic Party is mostly libertarian (or classically liberal, if you like, which is, inherently right wing) on social issues -- preferring to allow people to make their own choices WRT their bodies rather than seeking government control of reproductive health and other forms of bodily autonomy.

Individual rights and personal agency are not "left wing," except in the eyes of the authoritarian far right (or far left) who seek control over all else.

So no. The Democratic Party has a solidly center-right agenda/ideology -- no collectivism, individual rights not curtailed by the state, freedom of thought and religion, etc.

Despite what some folks may say, there are no Marxists in the US Democratic Party.

That's not to say that the Democratic Party is the ideal. Far from it. But to place them on the absolute "left" is ridiculous on its face.

It's only "left wing" as compared with the far right (read: evangelical christians, white nationalists, xenophobes, etc.) Republican Party who want to limit women's reproductive choices, force the religious doctrines of the Christian church down everyone's throats and spout xenophobic and long debunked genetic tropes related to melanin content.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by NemoNobody on Friday September 27, 2024 @03:40PM (#41674742)
Sounds like regulation to me ;)

I totally agree with you

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by justonenote on Friday September 27, 2024 @04:05PM (#41675008)
What something bottom up, transparent in rules and reward structure and able to iterate quickly instead of something top down?

Also agree with the GP.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by illuminant on Friday September 27, 2024 @03:30PM (#41674623)
If humanity is to mature, we must be critical and take responsibility for ourselves, particularly when the alignment of others are concerned. Such as starting by disagreeing with everything, and validate for one's own.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by Aerroon on Friday September 27, 2024 @09:04PM (#41677046)
I don't think that's really going to work. People won't list all their incentives, because some of them are implicit and others are embarrassing or "creepy". Others will absolutely judge you for what incentivizes your actions, therefore hiding them is the status quo.

If you say that your incentive for working out is to look good and be popular with the ladies then people will judge you for it, even if it's exactly the truth. If you say that you work out "for health" everyone will applaud you for what you're doing. And yet the outcome is going to be the same.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by strbean on Saturday September 28, 2024 @04:16AM (#41678747)
I could be wrong, but I took the parent's comment to mean that we should design incentive structures transparently, instead of obscuring them or outright ignoring the whole concept when engineering society.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by jprete on Saturday September 28, 2024 @09:20AM (#41680059)
At this point I'm so used to this that I mentally translate "for health" into "to look good for the opposite sex".
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by ellyagg on Saturday September 28, 2024 @10:47AM (#41680564)
It’s funny how those incentives are so well aligned.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by tsimionescu on Saturday September 28, 2024 @10:54AM (#41680614)
That's reductive, some of use are doing it to look good for the same sex!
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by Maken on Saturday September 28, 2024 @11:16AM (#41680780)
You got it backwards. It's not about being transparent about what you want to achieve, it's about being transparent about what others expect you to achieve on your current position.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by bmsan on Saturday September 28, 2024 @08:22PM (#41683847)
To check my understanding: say your current position is "unemployed." You would think that the expectation for you is to "get a job", but to get a job is extremely difficult. You have to navigate an almost adversarial job market and recruiting process, often for months. It's essentially a massive negative incentive, considering all of the effort and grief involved. So, the incentives aren't aligned with the desired outcome; the skittishness of each individual hiring company to make sure that they don't get screwed by a bad hire has warped the entire dynamic. Is this a good example?
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by carapace on Friday September 27, 2024 @11:05PM (#41677552)
(I keep mentioning this but no one seems to be picking up on it.) There is an algorithm that was developed in the late 80's in the context of therapy that could be used to align incentives and collectively agree on outcomes.

The algorithm is a simple recursive procedure where the guide or therapist evokes the client's motivation or incentive for an initial behaviour and then for each motivation in turn until a (so-called) "core state" is reached. In crude pseudo-code it would be something like:

    FOO = <some "presenting problem">
    M = evoke_motivation(FOO)
    until is_core_state(M):
        M = evoke_motivation(M)
Generalizing, motivations form a DAG that bottoms out in a handful of deep and profound spiritual "states". These states seem to be universal. Walking the DAGs of two or more people simultaneously until both are in core states effectively aligns incentives automatically, at least that's what I suspect would happen.

(I have no affiliation with these folks: Core Transformation Process https://www.coretransformation.org/ )

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by nathan_compton on Saturday September 28, 2024 @01:48PM (#41681785)
NLP and related stuff is not taken all that seriously among main stream scientists, you should probably say.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by disgruntledphd2 on Saturday September 28, 2024 @02:28PM (#41682063)
That's definitely true and there's lots of craziness around it. However, the best estimates for therapy and it's effects suggest that it's mostly a provider effect rather than anything in the theory.

Which is to say, a lot of this stuff works because you expect it to.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by carapace on Saturday September 28, 2024 @08:47PM (#41683950)
In re: this "NLP is pseudoscience" business, I've lost patience with it. First, I'm living proof of NLP's efficacy. Second, I don't go around suggesting homeopathy or astrology or pyramid power, okay? Like Ron Swanson "my recommendation is essentially a guarantee."

In terms of a Venn diagram the region representing people who have experience with NLP and the region representing people who think NLP is pseudoscience are disjoint, they do not overlap. As in I have never found anyone who claims that NLP is pseudoscience who has also admitted to having any experience with it. That is not science, eh? To the extent that mainstream scientists don't take NLP seriously they make themselves ridiculous. So yeah, in this one instance, ignore the scientists and look at the strange thing anyway, please? Humor me?

Now NLP is not scientific (yet) and it doesn't pretend to be (although many promoters do talk that way, and that's wrong and they shouldn't do that) and in fact there's a video online (I'll link to if I find it) where the co-founder addresses this point and says "it's not scientific".

However it does work. So it seems imperative to do science to it!?

At the time it was developed there were dozens of schools of psychology on the one hand[1] and academic psychologists on the other and the two groups did not talk to each other. NLP ran afoul of the academic psychologists in the mid 1980's and they closed ranks against it and haven't bothered themselves with it since. Again, I think it would be fantastic if we would do science to it and figure out what these algorithms are actually doing.

In any event the important thing is that the tools and techniques that have been developed are rigorous and repeatable. E.g. this "Core Transformation Process" works. That's primary data on which the science of psychology should operate not ignore.

[1] E.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Esalen_Institute | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Potential_Movement | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humanistic_psychology

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by cwalv on Saturday September 28, 2024 @11:35AM (#41680889)
> with all incentives aligned to the outcomes we collectively agree upon

Some things are simply not possible.

> If humanity is to mature

Recognizing and working within the constraints is maturity

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by antisthenes on Friday September 27, 2024 @03:12PM (#41674445)
> Similar - when I was younger, I would never have suspected that a scientist was committing fraud.

Unfortunately many less bright people seem to interpret this as "never trust science", when in reality science is still the best way to push humanity forward and alleviate human suffering, _despite_ all the fraud and misaligned incentives that may influence it.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by gjs4786 on Friday September 27, 2024 @04:09PM (#41675047)
All science does is show us how to move a whole bunch of piles of shit over into one big pile of shit, off in the corner. Or perhaps on to an unsuspecting group of poor people because, the burden demands to be he held and somebody has to hold the bag of shit. Right?

We may interpret this as convenience... But the tragedy of the commons says that we can't even have science if someone isn't holding what it is we don't want to be holding... I'm not saying I didn't love science or not think it's super interesting or anything... Can we really say it alleviates suffering or does it displace it for one group of people until a new problem comes in and takes that one's place? How many people here will be holding the bag of shit tonight? USA numba 1!!!

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by drevil-v2 on Friday September 27, 2024 @04:05PM (#41675011)
In defence of the "less bright people" or deplorables as others have called them - they are deeply suspicious of Science(tm) used as a cudgel.

They intuit that some parasitic entity or entities has latched on to Science and is co-opting it for it's own gain to achieve it's own purposes which run counter to the interests of the people.

The heavy handed Covid response and censorship is a prime example of that.

The whole system has been corrupted and therefore it is not possible to have a de-facto assumption of good faith of the actors.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by lupire on Friday September 27, 2024 @04:25PM (#41675180)
You're not wrong, but people who oppose "science as a cudgel" tend to support "religion as a cudgel", and don't see a difference between science and religion, except that one is the Yellow team and one is the Purple team, and they have a preferred color.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by jonhohle on Friday September 27, 2024 @05:33PM (#41675765)
When the public is told to “trust the science”, it is no longer science and is now religion.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by chasd00 on Friday September 27, 2024 @08:09PM (#41676755)
This happened all day long during Covid. The answer was never “we don’t know yet” which was at least honest but instead it was always “just trust us”. Exactly like i use to hear from preachers growing up.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by lanstin on Friday September 27, 2024 @11:45PM (#41677696)
The difference between public health and basic research. To stop an epidemic in flight one has to go with ones best guess and that saves lives so they do it.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by dukeofdoom on Saturday September 28, 2024 @12:25AM (#41677850)
Even if you still be the fiction of the vaccine saving lives. It was the life of an obese 80 year old with 3 other comorbidities ... for a few months.

The lockdowns resulted in inflation, and caused a lot more poverty and deaths worldwide since. And retarded the normal development of many children.

And we still don't know what kind of long term damage the vaccine caused. My friend that trusted the science, and took every booster, only stopped when she got myocarditis.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by moduspol on Saturday September 28, 2024 @01:40AM (#41678157)
We weren't told it was the best guess to save lives. We were told it was the science, and this science was very fast to adapt to alarmist narratives while being incredibly slow (sometimes taking years) to adapt to reality.

And that's before you take into account things like BLM rallies being encouraged during COVID while less politically correct gatherings were banned or decried as "super spreader events." [1]

[1] https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/06/04/public-hea...

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by lanstin on Saturday September 28, 2024 @10:03PM (#41684277)
Public health also studies the most effective communication strategies for sharing public health info even in the face of uncertainty. I bet they will be more explicit about uncertainty next time based on the last time, but that is why they didn't say it. The field started out with a person breaking the handle to an invented ell, not even using communications but taking physical actions to stop the spread.

As far as the speed of revisions, my memory is the initial advice to wash your hands so much faded within months, as well as the wash your groceries advice. It took the US some time to notice how effective masks were in Japan, and push for masking. And now good air filtration for public spaces is gaining momentum, even as the deaths from COVID declined.

And you aren't a bit alarmed anytime a novel virus hits an immunologically naïf population, well you should be.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by moduspol on Sunday September 29, 2024 @10:13AM (#41687557)
> I bet they will be more explicit about uncertainty next time based on the last time

This is highly euphemistic. We were explicitly lied to for our own good, over and over again. Including about masks being ineffective early on (to save them for healthcare providers), about ventilators, about the effectiveness of the vaccine, about the vulnerability of normal populations as compared to older ones, the plausible origins of the virus itself, etc. It was over and over again. And again--that's without the injection of left-wing politics as noted in my previous comment.

> As far as the speed of revisions

We had kids out of schools for years. An entire generation is now significantly behind comparable cohorts, and the only reason we even stopped is because the opposition eventually made it untenable. We forced many small businesses to fail and gave out interest-free loans to many others that never need to be paid back. People were forced to get vaccinated or lose their jobs.

I feel like our response to COVID-19 (at least in the US) is like a litmus test for how well one accepts authoritarianism. If one lived through that as an adult, I don't know how one would trust what the medical establishment says next time around, except to trust that it's what they want the unwashed masses to think.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by ungreased0675 on Saturday September 28, 2024 @04:33AM (#41678813)
I’d just like to add that the epidemic wasn’t stopped at all. Everyone still caught COVID.

Were outcomes worse than they otherwise would have been? That’s an impossible question to answer. Are there serious studies on the impact of public health interventions?

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by lanstin on Saturday September 28, 2024 @09:53PM (#41684227)
I saw one study of relative death rates that concluded if all US has followed California standards, about 800,000 fewer people would have died. And remember "flatten the curve"? The goal isn't to stop everyone getting the virus but to slow it down enough that the health care capacity is sufficient. A quick google finds this study and a few more recommended: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-31709-2 even the way the virus isn't killing as many vulnerable people as we get it the Nth time after M vaccinations is a success if the lower the curve strategy.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by dukeofdoom on Saturday September 28, 2024 @12:14AM (#41677811)
It's like paid clergy of old, except we now call them scientists. Sometimes they reveal truths. Most of the time, and most of them are kind of useless. It's self serving bullshit, served by ever growing bureaucracy.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by momoschili on Friday September 27, 2024 @04:32PM (#41675245)
How are "heavy handed covid response and censorship" a prime example of that?
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by tim333 on Friday September 27, 2024 @06:16PM (#41676085)
Preventing people from working if they didn't get a covid vaccine was a bit heavy handed.

And saying it was likely made in a lab in China is kind of censored to this day. I think partly because the science community doesn't want to take flack for doing risky stuff and killing millions.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by worik on Friday September 27, 2024 @07:02PM (#41676378)
> Preventing people from working if they didn't get a covid vaccine was a bit heavy handed.

Nobody did that. They prevented you from working with me

Nobody here or there was forced to get a vaccine. But if you refused it was right to shun you

Freedom is about more than the individual. We as a group should be free from the consequences of individual actions

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by chasd00 on Friday September 27, 2024 @08:03PM (#41676720)
My employer of 750k people made it very clear, upload proof of vaccination or be fired. That’s a fact.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by nostrademons on Friday September 27, 2024 @08:07PM (#41676739)
That was GP's point. Being fired != being prevented from working. You are still free to get a job at a different employer that has different policies.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by booleandilemma on Friday September 27, 2024 @10:19PM (#41677372)
You're splitting hairs. If people didn't get vaccinated during covid they became social pariahs. People were literally calling for their deaths.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by rdtsc on Saturday September 28, 2024 @02:53AM (#41678424)
Exactly. That kind of Machiavellian games is what they played. See, we’re not firing you. We just won’t pay you.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by tim333 on Saturday September 28, 2024 @04:48AM (#41678892)
My point as a Brit was it seemed a bit heavy handed in the US. In the UK we didn't really have that and still got most people vaccinated.

It would have made more sense if the vaccines actually stopped catching it and transmission but they don't really, they mostly just seem to reduce the harm when you catch it. In terms of not spreading it to others you are better isolating than relying on the vaccines - I've had that as a practical issue with my late 80s mum who I visit. Although I've had 4 jabs I've still had it caught it twice since, and have avoided giving it to her by testing if I feel ill and staying away. Which is kind of to say some of the politicians views on it were heavy handed and a bit iffy scientifically.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by LtWorf on Saturday September 28, 2024 @07:13AM (#41679490)
Workers are free to work or free to starve.

-- Karl Marx

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by Meekro on Friday September 27, 2024 @07:41PM (#41676608)
The Biden administration had OSHA make rules to force employers to make their employees get the vax. The Supreme Court stopped them.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by rdtsc on Saturday September 28, 2024 @02:51AM (#41678410)
Wrong they did that to me. Not a small company either. Yeah you can play games with “we won’t fire you, we’ll just stop paying you and won’t allow you to work”.

It’s like they watched Office Space and thought they’d “Milton” everyone.

> Freedom is about more than the individual.

The individual is what it starts with.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by viridian on Monday September 30, 2024 @01:18PM (#41699649)
This is misinformation. My employer mandated it for all employees, and my entire IT organization 100% WFH, coming in wasn't even an option.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by momoschili on Friday September 27, 2024 @08:42PM (#41676925)
From a philosophical perspective, I don't see how the vaccine mandates for public jobs is appreciably different than vaccine requirements for public school that already exist.

As far as the China lab goes, there were plenty of scientific papers that studied the China leak theory, though I personally don't know what they found.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by aziaziazi on Saturday September 28, 2024 @05:55AM (#41679180)
The difference between the vaccines you're talking about lies in their development time: The one in school have been (tested) around for decades before getting mandatory.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by ProjectArcturis on Saturday September 28, 2024 @01:33PM (#41681691)
The COVID vaccines have now been around for 4 years now, and there is no evidence they are appreciably more dangerous than those other vaccines that took longer to develop.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by dotnet00 on Friday September 27, 2024 @05:16PM (#41675621)
A decent chunk of the pandemic response was politicians power tripping in the name of The Science and later having to roll things back, either because of public backlash (eg hotlines to encourage snitching on their neighbors), because it was actually illegal (requiring all large businesses to have their employees vaccinated or tested weekly), or because of politics (initially telling the public that masks were ineffective, then tripling down on mask mandates, Harris saying the vaccine could not be trusted based on Trump talking about its efficacy).

There was also dumb stuff like social media suppressing mention of covid, even to this day youtubers use euphemisms to refer to that period.

To me it seems perfectly understandable how people who aren't actually involved in science might mix up The Science and actual science after all the political nastiness of those years, especially when we add on top all of the awful pop science reporting from the past decades.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by LtWorf on Friday September 27, 2024 @07:14PM (#41676465)
It's not that it was heavy handed. But it was completely nonsensical.

For example here restaurants were open, but they had to close at 19. So instead of spreading the clientele over more hours, they were always 100% full.

Also, they CUT ⅔ of public transport rides, so they were incredibly overcrowded. People with real jobs that can't be done from home still had to go to work. BUT they put stickers on the floor telling people to keep distance. Also hired people to be at crowded stops to spray hand sanitizers on who wanted it, and tell people to keep distance (while seeing them having to push their way in).

In general all the restrictions were about the "having fun" stuff, but not about the "go to work" stuff. Even companies had no obligation to let people who could work from home stay at home. Some companies kept having their offices full.

Oh and let's not forget the recommendations of staying home if you so much as sneezed. But you wouldn't get paid. How did they expect people to pay their rent?

I could go on for hours with this. The bullshit measures that were marketed as "what the scientists are telling us to do" did a lot of harm to the trust that the general population puts into science.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by dynamite-ready on Friday September 27, 2024 @05:05PM (#41675516)
I think this comment comes across as slightly ignorant.

Many examples exist where a misguided belief in scientific 'facts' (usually a ropey hypothesis, with seemingly 'damning' evidence), or a straight up abuse of the scientific method, causes direct harm.

Suspicion is often based on facts or experience.

People have been infected with diseases without their knowledge.

People have been forced to undergo surgical procedures on the basis of spurious claims.

People have been burnt alive in buildings judged to be safe.

And look at Boeing.

No one has a problem with science itself per se. Everyone accepts the scientific method to be one of our greatest cultural achievements.

But whether one is "less bright", or super smart, we all know we as humans, are prone to mistakes, and are just as prone to bend the truth, to cover up those mistakes.

There's nothing plebeian about this form of suspicion. In fact, the scientific method relies on it (peer review).

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by maigret on Saturday September 28, 2024 @12:34AM (#41677899)
> No one has a problem with science itself per se. Everyone accepts the scientific method to be one of our greatest cultural achievements

This is just wrong and naive. You can be happy if a majority of people agree to this.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by dynamite-ready on Saturday September 28, 2024 @03:20AM (#41678530)
As written, possibly. Taken literally, it's full of holes.

But if you're not a pedant, I essentially mean that most parents will vaccinate their children, many passengers will book flights, and a majority of the citizens in a population do respect their officials (etcetera).

And I think if you were to dig deeper than this, and test that hypothesis with... well... a scientific experiment of some kind, the result would probably support it.

But a good number of people will naturally question the outcome!

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by LtWorf on Friday September 27, 2024 @07:06PM (#41676403)
I attended the opening talk of a local science festival.

The speaker was a psychology researcher from UK who flew here for that, and the talk was about conspiracy theories. When they introduced her they stated that she wouldn't accept any questions from the audience.

This was received with boos and shouts that it was not real science.

She then proceeded to bundle all the conspiracy theories together. Going from "the government is doing something bad" to "earth is flat".

After that talk I can really believe that the bullshit conspiracy theories are made up and spread artificially so that anyone that comes up with any conspiracy theory can be shushed as a crazy person.

But… in reality conspiracies do exist. One can make a theory and then test if it's true (or get killed/imprisoned by the government while trying).

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by ClumsyPilot on Friday September 27, 2024 @09:13PM (#41677086)
I always struggled with ‘cospiracy theory’ being used as an attack.

Yes, that’s exactly what they are, upfront, allegations of a conspiracy. And some of them are correct,

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by ChainOfFools on Saturday September 28, 2024 @12:59AM (#41677999)
This actually may be true although somewhat indirectly with respect to at least one well-known conspiracy belief.

If I recall correctly, the Flat Earth Society was originally concieved as a prank intended to lampoon actual conspiratorial groups (I.e. Nasa faked the moon landing, JFK was a mob hit etc)

But through some combination of timing, convimcing execution, and media interest coincidentally developing in the same direction resulted in the supreme irony of an unserious sham cult spawning an unironic counterpart community which rapidly outgrew and ultimately succeeded it.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by hyperdimension on Saturday September 28, 2024 @01:36PM (#41681704)
That's the same shape as the OBEY clothing line, incidentally.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by lazide on Saturday September 28, 2024 @08:45AM (#41679900)
‘Heavy handed Covid response’ - lulz. What other emerging pandemic has been so lightly handled?

We used to forcibly quarantine people in their homes at gunpoint for measles. Smallpox? Even crazier.

Hell, we didn’t even shut down international travel until well after it was plainly obvious it had spread well past the point it would matter.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by Qwertious on Saturday September 28, 2024 @04:30PM (#41682767)
>They intuit

They don't need to intuit it; they're outright told not to trust the science, by the parasites who are criticised by other scientists. Like the asbestos industry.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by ksplicer on Friday September 27, 2024 @03:39PM (#41674733)
I try to distinguish between "the scientific process" and building scientific consensus. As rigorous as the scientific process may be, building consensus is always a messy and human thing.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by throwawaymaths on Friday September 27, 2024 @03:44PM (#41674781)
> Unfortunately many less bright people seem to interpret this as "never trust science"

Unfortunately many "smart" people insist on telling "dumb" people how to think instead of having the introspection and humility to examine where we've gone wrong and spending a lot of time and effort on fixing it.

No, easier to gaslight the idiots

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by heironimus on Friday September 27, 2024 @05:08PM (#41675552)
Exactly. “This is bad because dumb people won’t believe us.”

Not “This is bad because it undermines science, is lying, and unethical, regardless of what people think.”

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by ImPostingOnHN on Friday September 27, 2024 @06:20PM (#41676105)
A lot of people are working to fix the K-12+ educational system which is the root cause of many stupid people, but beyond that, it's objectively hard to fix stupid.

Most people, stupid or otherwise, wouldn't take a critical thinking course, for example. Many would have no time for it, to say little of motivation. Fewer are proud of being stupid and will shun anything they consider "intellectual".

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by throwawaymaths on Friday September 27, 2024 @08:30PM (#41676870)
This is a bad take. Because even the craziest of crazies (the flat earthers) are actually doing the scientific method by running experiments to test their crazy conjectures. What makes them crazy is that they have a poor sense of discernment about when it's worth it to trust authorities and when it's not; they're not dumb, and education is not really failing them (in the sense that they "aren't being taught what science is"). They are arguably better scientists than "trust the science" folks because at least they are getting out there and moving atoms to test shit.

On the other hand intellectuals have poor discernment too, they overly trust the literature and the interpretation of working scientists. These two phenomena are two sides of the same coin, and the flat earthers/antivaxx etc crazies are directly downstream of the "trust the science" bad behaviour, especially since the education system has taught them what good science is and they are rightly perceiving that good science is not being done.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by ImPostingOnHN on Saturday September 28, 2024 @12:26AM (#41677856)
> This is a bad take.

This is a bad start to a post on HN. Less confrontational would be better.

> Because even the craziest of crazies are actually doing the scientific method.

I can name several conspiracy theories off the bat which I've heard repeated by people who have not tested the theories. The vast majority of them, at best, found a video of someone on the internet with "dr" in the username. The percent of "jet fuel can't melt steel beams" folks who have actually personally tested whether steel can lose structural integrity at such temperatures, is absolutely minuscule.

> They are arguably better scientists than "trust the science" folks because at least they are getting out there and moving atoms to test shit.

Reading something on the internet is moving photons and electrons at best, but I can't speak to whether a given Parler thread which convinced someone of a given conspiracy was read inside or outside.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by throwawaymaths on Saturday September 28, 2024 @03:07AM (#41678484)
Let go man. Science is rotten. I spent a decade doing science. You wouldn't know unless you were there (and half the people who were are so wrapped up in the holiness of science as part of their identity that they can't see the rot).
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by ImPostingOnHN on Saturday September 28, 2024 @02:35PM (#41682111)
Are you sure you replied to the right post? This reply seems to have nothing to do with mine.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by consf on Saturday September 28, 2024 @03:59PM (#41682607)
A cycle where issues remain unresolved
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by momoschili on Friday September 27, 2024 @03:18PM (#41674505)
Agree. The fact that we are seeing this kind of discourse within the scientific community is in my opinion a great argument for the scientific method.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by throwawaymaths on Friday September 27, 2024 @03:46PM (#41674812)
How's this for scientific method. The response to "not trust science" is the inductive step of a model that is validated by the fucking evidence.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by momoschili on Friday September 27, 2024 @03:56PM (#41674919)
not sure what you're getting at
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by mike_hearn on Friday September 27, 2024 @05:15PM (#41675603)
Why? Some guy writing an op-ed saying how frustrating it is that science is full of fraud is a great argument for the scientific method? There have been people writing articles like this for over 20 years if not much longer about all kinds of fields. Nothing ever happens, nothing ever improves, it never goes beyond people saying "tut tut how terrible". This sort of thing is entirely predictable and will keep happening, over and over again. On the current course, there will be articles just like this one being discussed in another twenty years from now.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by momoschili on Friday September 27, 2024 @05:37PM (#41675798)
I don't think Derek Lowe is frustrated that "science is full of fraud", this is likely editorialization on your part. It seems that it stems specifically from Masliah, who is common across all papers in the dossier. Granted, Masliah appears to be prolific, so this is admittedly a large issue in the peer review and verification structure in this field.

To put this into context though:

Let's begin by supposing that fraud exists in all ventures where people stand to gain, which I don't think is controversial at all, especially not in this comment section.

In light of this assumption the fact that this all came out in the first place is proof that being a luminary does not make you immune from investigation. That this happens 'over and over again' simply means that eventually we catching this fraud. The fact that the scientific community is constantly trying to reproduce and verify is why these become public in the first place.

So on the contrary, it's not that nothing ever happens or nothing ever improves. There will be articles like this one in twenty years because there will still be fraudsters in twenty years, and there will still be scientists working to verify their work.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by mike_hearn on Friday September 27, 2024 @05:57PM (#41675949)
I don't think it's true that eventually we are catching this fraud :( This keeps happening because so much is out there, it doesn't follow that all or even most of it is being caught. Even a tiny fraction of a fraction of a percent being caught would yield a constant stream of such stories. I have a collection of articles on my blog dating back years that cover various fraudulent papers in different fields, and even whole fields in which the bulk of all papers are based on fraud (e.g. the literature dealing with misinformation bots on Twitter). None of them have ever been retracted or even had any of the problems be acknowledged outside of the blogosphere.

It's really hard to understand the scale of the problem until you wade through it yourself. Fraud is absolutely endemic in science. Dig in and you can easily uncover bogus papers, and none of them will ever be acknowledged or retracted. In particular there's a nasty attitude problem in which reports of fraud from outside the academic institutions will frequently be written off as "right wing" and thus inherently illegitimate. This can happen regardless of the nature of the criticism or whether it's in any way political. Literally, things like bug reports or reports of numbers that don't add up can be discarded this way. Thus they implement an unwritten rule that only academics are allowed to report fraud by academics, and of course, they are strongly incentivized not to do so. So Lowe is correct. It's really a mess.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by momoschili on Friday September 27, 2024 @09:27PM (#41677153)
Took a quick look at your blog. Some of those examples are quite bad, similar to the fake gels in the Science article. Do you know if any of them gained particular attention?
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by mike_hearn on Saturday September 28, 2024 @08:10AM (#41679736)
There was a paper written by a couple of Germans on the Botometer stuff. The first version of the paper cited me, they spent a year or two trying to get a version published and it was eventually cut down and got into obscure social science journal and ignored. Nothing ever came of it really.

The stuff on PCR test false positives went somewhat viral and got some attention from outside of academia but of course it was during COVID so it was ignored by the institutions.

The stuff on epidemiology and the history of Neil Ferguson was triggered originally by an article in the Telegraph. It went no further than that.

The fake lesion surgery got noticed on Twitter and I think it was eventually retracted but the perps still work for the NHS.

The paper mills and fake biology papers gets published about occasionally in mainstream press. But nothing happens.

So... no. Not really.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by djfobbz on Friday September 27, 2024 @03:26PM (#41674590)
Also science: There are more new cases of cancer in the United States now than there have ever been before.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by worik on Friday September 27, 2024 @07:07PM (#41676417)
> There are more new cases of cancer in the United States now than there have ever been before.

Sigh

That is because antibiotics, essentially

The mechanism by which antibiotics cause cancer is they stop you dying from bacterial infection, once a huge (biggest?) killer.

You still have to die of something....

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by jiggawatts on Friday September 27, 2024 @08:40PM (#41676910)
There’s also improved testing: previously old people would die of “unknown natural causes”, now they’re diagnosed as having cancer.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by consf on Saturday September 28, 2024 @04:02PM (#41682619)
As we conquer one type of disease, others emerge more prominently
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by concordDance on Friday September 27, 2024 @04:06PM (#41675012)
I'm not sure the two uses of "science" in your post are using the same meanings of the word.

Science is the name given to a few different processes, a body of knowledge and statements by designated spokespersons. Each of these have different flaws and failure modes in different environments and domains.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by lupire on Friday September 27, 2024 @04:27PM (#41675205)
Appositive comma, or missing Harvard comma?
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by mike_hearn on Friday September 27, 2024 @05:44PM (#41675859)
Already done: https://imagetwin.ai/
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by jknoepfler on Friday September 27, 2024 @06:01PM (#41675979)
I believe the phrase is "trust but verify."
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by antisthenes on Saturday September 28, 2024 @11:49AM (#41680969)
Culture of being proud of ignorance is on full display in the replies to my comment, btw.

Exactly the kind of less bright people that I inferred about. People so devoid of common sense, that they utterly reject anyone who applies systematic thinking. Unreal.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by BlueTemplar on Saturday September 28, 2024 @12:32PM (#41681277)
The problem is simplifying into the same word "science" both the scientific method (with a pretty good track record, though it does have some blind spots), and groups of people claiming to engage in it (the tendency of which is to become corrupt, the faster the more powerful they are).
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by infamouscow on Friday September 27, 2024 @02:52PM (#41674251)
The Manhattan project was a government project that was run like a startup.

If such a project happened today, academic scientists would be trying to figure out ways to bend their existing research to match the grants. Then it would take another 30 years before people started to ask why nothing has been delivered yet.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by schmidtleonard on Friday September 27, 2024 @03:05PM (#41674385)
Nuclear physics had just "cracked open" and there were lots of highly promising prospects to pursue. You can't recreate that historical situation by switching from agile to scrum, or from scrum to agile.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by griffzhowl on Friday September 27, 2024 @04:09PM (#41675049)
Run like a startup in what respect?

It was a massive government-directed military project in wartime that was able to recruit all the top theoretical physicists at the time around a common aim in an urgent technological arms race to build the bomb. It included a vast effort of army engineers to build the facilities to process the fuel and so on. I'm not seeing the parallels with startups.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by soganess on Friday September 27, 2024 @05:27PM (#41675700)
I just want to echo this!

They built a gosh darned city... oh wait, I was wrong, they built three. It was run like an extremely high-value military project, which is exactly what it was. Sure it was more theoretical than other military projects(at the time), but that is the game sometimes.

I get the sense that some folks just think "faster then we would do it now" is the same as startup. Which, to put it politely, I strongly disagree with. Startups are great and I am grateful for the daily value adds to my life, but pretending everything "fast" has startup mentality is just missing the mark.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by roenxi on Friday September 27, 2024 @08:11PM (#41676766)
In this context I'm not sure what "startup" is supposed to mean; but companies are fully capable of building up new cities if it makes economic sense. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Company_town. Disney was famously looking to run his own nuclear reactor so it is easy to imagine a private company doing fundamental nuclear research even if it isn't part of the nuclear industry.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by neura on Friday September 27, 2024 @05:28PM (#41675705)
Even your description sounds like a startup, to me.

There was a hook to get the funding (easy to get weapons funding in wartime). Recruiting the top talent. Urgency (beat everybody else to the punch). Outsourcing the building of infrastructure while you focus on the unique/hard part.

I'm not seeing how you can't see the parallels with startups.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by griffzhowl on Friday September 27, 2024 @07:14PM (#41676464)
In that case any high-priority military intelligence project is "like a startup". Why say that it's run like a startup as opposed to just saying it was run like a high-priority military-intelligence project?

The GP suggested that a reason for the success of the Manhattan project was that it was run like a startup, whereas it seems more illuminating to point out that it was a massively funded military project in wartime. I was curious if there was some more specific rationale for the startup comparison

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by infamouscow on Friday September 27, 2024 @09:49PM (#41677235)
In a startup—especially one that is heavily funded, like a government—roadblocks that can be resolved by eliminating paperwork, cutting through bureaucracy, or simply by paying money, tend to disappear.

No serious person can argue this being plausible today. Sam Altman will drop 10B at a blink of an eye if it means unblocking a major problem for OpenAI.

The government spends 10x that all of the time without anything impressive to speak of since the moon landing.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by komali2 on Friday September 27, 2024 @10:06PM (#41677316)
I'm baffled, I must be misreading your comment. Are you saying the government is like a startup or just that's heavily funded startups are like the government because the government is also heavily funded?

It's also really odd to me that you claim Sam Altman can do more impressive things with 10 billion than some government. I mean, have you seen a public transit system? A sewer system? A dam? Sam Altman could hand code a true AGI tomorrow and people would still need to flush their poop.

It's also worth noting that without the government there is no economic system that allows for startup investments, nor does the USD really have any value.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by BlueTemplar on Saturday September 28, 2024 @12:14PM (#41681151)
What about the overwhelming majority of startups, which are poorly funded ?
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by ClumsyPilot on Friday September 27, 2024 @09:54PM (#41677254)
> Even your description sounds like a dtartup There was a hook to get the funding (easy to get weapons funding in wartime

Huh? Decision was made by the president Roosevelt, advised by government agencies and even Albert einstein.

This is like top-down, command economy with elements of technocracy. There are no investors, no markets, etc.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by ricksunny on Friday September 27, 2024 @03:01PM (#41674349)
Sounds like Eric Weinstein'a take (which I appreciate) on theoretical physics research.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by infamouscow on Friday September 27, 2024 @08:29PM (#41676860)
I also like Eric Weinstein, but the non-physics aspects of his perspective are essentially the philosophy of Curtis Yarvin distilled and presented in a way that's more digestible to classic liberals.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by ClumsyPilot on Friday September 27, 2024 @09:45PM (#41677217)
> The Manhattan project was a government project that was run like a startup.

Run directly by the government employees, and directly hiring the nessesary people to work for the government. today we would call that socialist or some such, opposite of startup?

> If such a project happened today, academic scientists would be trying to figure out ways to bend their existing research to match the grants

You missed important step- such a project today would start by the government handing out grants, stimulus and tax breaks. If they directly hired the nessesary people, there would be no fighting for grants. People do what incentives demand

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by nextos on Friday September 27, 2024 @02:36PM (#41674083)
Lots of people doing research find this depressing to the point of quitting. Many of my peers left research as they couldn't stomach all this nonsense. In experimental fields, the current academic system rewards dishonesty so much that ugly things have become really common.

In my relatively short career, I have been asked to manipulate results several times. I refused, but this took an immense toll, especially on two occasions. Some people working with me wanted to support me fighting dishonesty. But guess what, they all had families and careers and were ultimately not willing to do anything as this could jeopardize their position.

I've also witnessed first-hand how people that manage to publish well adopt monopolistic strategies, sabotaging interesting grant proposals from other groups or stalling their article submissions while they copy them. This is a problem that seldomly gets discussed. The current review system favors mono-cultures and winner-takes-it-all scenarios.

For these reasons, I think industrial labs will be doing much better. Incentives there are not that perverse.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by svara on Friday September 27, 2024 @03:43PM (#41674766)
> I've also witnessed first-hand how people that manage to publish well adopt monopolistic strategies, sabotaging interesting grant proposals from other groups or stalling their article submissions while they copy them. This is a problem that seldomly gets discussed.

Agree. Everyone has heard about the extreme fraud cases, but the casual toxicity that the pressure cooker environment elicits is rarely discussed and probably a far larger problem. I say that as someone who has spent too much time in this environment and never witnessed outright fraud - that I know of.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by mmooss on Friday September 27, 2024 @03:35PM (#41674682)
So do you believe the author of the OP could honestly omit from their article the things you (and many others here) talk about? Could they be naive?
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by nextos on Friday September 27, 2024 @06:54PM (#41676322)
Nah, I think the article has good intentions. And rampant fraud is important to address.

But as others said, addressing smaller shenanigans is also crucial to steer things in the right direction.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by consf on Saturday September 28, 2024 @03:55PM (#41682586)
Unfortunately, until academia undergoes serious reforms, the very people who should be pushing the boundaries of human knowledge may continue to be driven out
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by _heimdall on Friday September 27, 2024 @04:40PM (#41675310)
The fact that it can still be considered science when intentional fraud is involved is a huge problem itself.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by lazide on Saturday September 28, 2024 @08:43AM (#41679894)
The scientific method itself is a respond to fraud and deception (intentional, delusional, accidental).
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by consf on Saturday September 28, 2024 @03:56PM (#41682593)
Science, at its core, is supposed to be a method of systematically seeking truth through rigorous experimentation, observation, and reasoning. When intentional dishonesty enters the equation, it undermines the entire purpose of the scientific endeavor
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by Qwertious on Saturday September 28, 2024 @04:25PM (#41682729)
Science, at it's core, is figuring out how to make better TVs and phones with longer battery life. Truth-seeking should be done during your lunch break. If you have one.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by consf on Tuesday October 01, 2024 @04:59AM (#41706107)
Commercialization of science! But science isn’t supposed to be about making better consumer products
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by klenwell on Friday September 27, 2024 @04:46PM (#41675377)
I think my favorite Simpsons gag is the episode where Lisa enlists a scientist (voiced by Stephen Jay Gould) to run tests to debunk some angel bones that were found at a construction site.

In the middle of the episode, the scientist bicycles up to report, dramatically, that the tests "were inconclusive".

In the end, it's revealed that the bones were a fraud concocted by some mall developers to promote their new mall.

After this is revealed, Lisa asks the scientist about the tests. He shrugs:

"I'm not going to lie to you, Lisa. I never ran the tests."

It's funny on a few levels but what I find most amusing is that his incentive is left a mystery.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by fluoridation on Friday September 27, 2024 @06:16PM (#41676081)
Well, the incentive is that he didn't want to run the tests out of laziness (i.e. he lacked an incentive to run them). He ran to Lisa to give his anticlimactic report not to be deceptive, but rather he just happened to be cycling through that part of town and just needed to use the bathroom really badly.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by tedk-42 on Friday September 27, 2024 @06:26PM (#41676139)
The writers of these episodes were really on another level considering it was a cartoon.

Lisa's first word is still a personal favourite of mine, especially now as a father.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by fluoridation on Friday September 27, 2024 @07:57PM (#41676694)
To be honest, it's difficult to tell if the subplot makes sense on purpose, or if the writers just wanted to make a joke and it just happened to end up making sense. I don't think I had ever put the three scenes together before now.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by nativeit on Friday September 27, 2024 @09:25PM (#41677138)
One of the first things I learned in film school is _nothing_ in a production at that level is coincidence or serendipity. To get to the final script and storyboard, the writers would have gone through multiple drafts, and a great deal of material gets either cut, or retooled to reinforce thematic elements. To the extent that The Simpsons was a goofy cartoon, its writers’ room carried a great deal of intellectual and academic heft, and I don’t doubt for a moment that there was full intention with both the joke itself, and the choice to leave the character’s motivations ambiguous.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by sobkas on Friday September 27, 2024 @10:34PM (#41677446)
> One of the first things I learned in film school is _nothing_ in a production at that level is coincidence or serendipity. To get to the final script and storyboard, the writers would have gone through multiple drafts, and a great deal of material gets either cut, or retooled to reinforce thematic elements. To the extent that The Simpsons was a goofy cartoon, its writers’ room carried a great deal of intellectual and academic heft, and I don’t doubt for a moment that there was full intention with both the joke itself, and the choice to leave the character’s motivations ambiguous.

Not everything, for example I read somewhere that chess "fight" in Tween Peaks was random and didn't adhere to chess rules because no one really paid attention to record or follow moves.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by dmix on Saturday September 28, 2024 @11:16AM (#41680782)
Yes TV shows especially, they are under a lot of pressure to put them out on time so stuff isn’t always thought out fully.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by jshdhehe on Friday September 27, 2024 @09:48PM (#41677228)
Goofy cartoon but I always thought it was very cleverly done in parts. The laugh followed by "fuck life is actually like that" aftertaste.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by vlovich123 on Saturday September 28, 2024 @04:22AM (#41678776)
The entire writing room was Harvard grads and people who went on to accomplish impressive things in the industry (eg Conan O’Brien was a writer, David X Cohen was a writer and then went on to cocreate Futurama with Groening). The early writing team was one of the sharpest ever assembled and dismissing it as a “goofy cartoon” is missing the talent behind it just like if you dismissed Futurama in that way.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by jorvi on Saturday September 28, 2024 @06:34AM (#41679320)
> One of the first things I learned in film school is _nothing_ in a production at that level is coincidence or serendipity.

Perhaps they should have taught you to be less sure of that. So many takes in movies that ended up being the best one are where a punch accidentally did land, something is ad-libbed, a dialogue is mixed up, etc.

To take an example of a very critically acclaimed show: in Breaking Bad the only reason we got Jonathan Banks in the role of Mike is because Bob Odenkirk had a scheduling conflict, and Banks improvised a slap during his audition. Paul Aaron even complained about it indicating that he would not have agreed to it.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by fouc on Saturday September 28, 2024 @03:12PM (#41682352)
This is a cartoon though, significantly less adlibbing, everything has already been storyboarded and scripted out etc.

Pixar's approach to making their movies is a fascinating highly iterative process going through many story boards and internal showings using simplistic graphics before proceeding to the final stage to produce a polished product. I wonder how Simpsons do it.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by creer on Thursday October 03, 2024 @03:57PM (#41734328)
It seems like there is a lot of serendipitous in writing and production. That's not what it was about. The point is how much agonizing and second guessing it takes and how many alternatives explored and how many takes, etc before something, anything makes it in the final product.

The lucky break is first a result of a lot of planning and work - and it gets analyzed to death before included - and then probably re-inforced here or there elsewhere. (So that for me, I do notice when I hear movie or TV dialog as completely natural and said exactly right. It's exceptional.)

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by kenjackson on Friday September 27, 2024 @07:05PM (#41676392)
What's her first word?
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by g4zj on Friday September 27, 2024 @07:18PM (#41676492)
Apparently it was "Bart". I had to look it up because I was curious as well.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by 6LLvveMx2koXfwn on Friday September 27, 2024 @11:42PM (#41677689)
I guess GP is referring to the episode, rather than the actual word . . .
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by gedy on Friday September 27, 2024 @07:20PM (#41676501)
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by tedk-42 on Saturday September 28, 2024 @04:55AM (#41678929)
More incentive to watch the 20min episode if you ever get the opportunity haha
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by garrettgarcia on Friday September 27, 2024 @06:36PM (#41676207)
I thought his incentive was to defend the idea of miracles/faith/angels/God.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by neycoda on Friday September 27, 2024 @07:35PM (#41676577)
More often than not in scientific fraud I've seen the underlying motives be personal beliefs than financial. This is why science needs to be much stronger in weeding out the charlatans.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by belief-in-money on Friday September 27, 2024 @09:33PM (#41677179)
[citation needed]

---

I conjecture the most common underlying motive is to embellish cv, and climb the academic ladder.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by NoPie on Sunday September 29, 2024 @11:15AM (#41687939)
It's actually quite clever from the part of the scientist.

The incentive would be money, maybe the pay for doing this test was not good enough.

Or maybe the scientist was motivated by thirst of discovering something good for humanity like cure for cancer and didn't want to get distracted by other things. Funding is also needed but angel bones are clearly impossibility. Why even spend time on disproving that? But if she had engaged in discussion with people clearly believing in this nonsense it would have taken too much time. Saying, the tests are inconclusive lets her be distanced from all this and allow people to leave her alone, mostly that the groups will continue their disputes among themselves.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by jongjong on Friday September 27, 2024 @06:51PM (#41676300)
That's a good one. In my experience, corruption is almost always disguised as neglect and incompetence. Corrupt people meticulously cover their tracks by coming up with excuses to show neglect; some of them only accept bribes that they can explain away as neglect where they have plausible deniability. It doesn't take much brainpower to do well, just malicious intent and knowing the upper limits.

IMO, Hanlon's razor "Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity" is a narrative which was created to condition the masses into accepting being conned repeatedly.

On the topic, I subscribe to Grey's law "Any sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice" so I see idiots as malicious. In the very best case, idiots in positions of power are malicious for accepting the position and thus preventing someone more competent from getting it. It really doesn't matter what their intent is. Deep down, stupid people know that they're stupid but they let their emotions get in the way, same emotions which prevent them from getting smarter.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by schmidtleonard on Friday September 27, 2024 @07:02PM (#41676374)
I wouldn't attribute malice to Hanlon's razor, but yes, even dogs and small children know how to play dumb and the children just keep getting better at it.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by chiefalchemist on Saturday September 28, 2024 @08:11AM (#41679743)
True story: CEOs, cops,and politicians (and their appointees) are good at it as well.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by kenjackson on Friday September 27, 2024 @07:06PM (#41676414)
Ehh... I think neglect and incompetence are super common. I have a sink full of dishes downstairs to prove it. I think corruption, while not rare, is still far rarer. Horses over zebras still (at least in the US).
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by MichaelZuo on Friday September 27, 2024 @08:14PM (#41676786)
‘Sufficiently advanced’ is the key term, e.g. if your sink was located on the premises of 5 star hotel then that would probably be indistinguishable from malice.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by lanstin on Friday September 27, 2024 @09:38PM (#41677196)
Barry Apppelman, for a long time the boss of all the Unix engineers, said malice was preferable to incompetence because malice would take breaks.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by vasvir on Saturday September 28, 2024 @01:03AM (#41678018)
Yes and in addition malice is enough times predictable while incompetence is just a quantum void where the probabilities are inverted and your hard earned intuition doesn't help you...
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by rdtsc on Saturday September 28, 2024 @01:09AM (#41678042)
However malice is directed. When it doesn’t take breaks it does a lot more damage usually.

One can argue malice can be controlled with incentives at some level, though.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by bmsan on Saturday September 28, 2024 @07:17PM (#41683595)
So can "stupidity". If something is possible for a human to do, it's something that's possible for any sufficiently-enabled/supported human to do. I've heard it put that the inability to understand or do something is a matter of not having acquired the necessary prerequisites. So, the incentives to control stupidity are the incentives to acquire and apply the prerequisite skills or knowledge.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by specproc on Saturday September 28, 2024 @04:27AM (#41678793)
Hmm, sure, but if you want to spot malice, look for the one not taking breaks.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by lanstin on Monday September 30, 2024 @07:14PM (#41703096)
I don't seem to be able to edit this anymore, but there is a grievous gap in the writing: "Barry Appelman, for a long time the boss of all the Unix engineers at AOL."
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by czl on Saturday September 28, 2024 @12:16AM (#41677817)
> On the topic, I subscribe to Grey's law "Any sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice" so I see idiots as malicious. In the very best case, idiots in positions of power are malicious for accepting the position and thus preventing someone more competent from getting it. It really doesn't matter what their intent is. Deep down, stupid people know that they're stupid but they let their emotions get in the way, same emotions which prevent them from getting smarter.

I think you have things backwards. Being dumb is the default. It takes ability and effort and help to get smarter. Animals and children are dumber than us. Do you think they realize it?

Perversely many who are dumb are trapped thinking they are not dumb:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effec...

A dumb person (like a dumb child or animal) are what they are one should not attribute malice. Better to try to see things from their point of view and perhaps help them be smarter. This is what I try to do.

Your other remarks are 100% just the point above was sticking out hence my comment.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by lazide on Saturday September 28, 2024 @05:03AM (#41678965)
While that may be a kind view, practically it is rarely a useful one. At least for the person holding it.

Especially when power, violence, money, or sex are involved.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by jongjong on Wednesday October 02, 2024 @07:37AM (#41719457)
Yes this resonates.

I feel that stupidity is evil in the same way as that a shark might be perceived as evil. You could explain it away as "It's not their fault, it's in their nature, they don't know better" but if it's in their nature to cause people harm, if anything, it makes the label more applicable from my perspective.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by ScoobleDoodle on Saturday September 28, 2024 @01:34PM (#41681694)
Dunning Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people with limited competence in a particular domain overestimate their abilities.

That is to say some of the incompetent are so incompetent they can’t distinguish between their incompetence and an actual expert. This is exhibited very publicly in some contestants of the American Idol genre of shows.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effec...

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by brnaftr361 on Saturday September 28, 2024 @02:03PM (#41681906)
D&K ironically misengineered their tests and inadventently misconstrued their data due to floor and ceiling effects. If you ran the gamut of their tests against random noise you get similar results.

https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/critical-thinking/dunning-...

I posit that anyone who uses DK unironically is actually committing to the DK-paradox, something I'll leave you to define for yourself.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by ChrisMarshallNY on Friday September 27, 2024 @10:25PM (#41677403)
Reminds me of this quote:

> "The most erroneous stories are those we think we know best -and therefore never scrutinize or question."

-Stephen Jay Gould

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by logifail on Saturday September 28, 2024 @05:11AM (#41679008)
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so. “

– Mark Twain

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by pwatsonwailes on Saturday September 28, 2024 @08:57AM (#41679955)
Which he never said, making the not-quote doubly accurate
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by ChrisMarshallNY on Saturday September 28, 2024 @09:01AM (#41679978)
"Don't believe everything you read on the Internet."

- Abraham Lincoln

Maybe relevant: https://quoteinvestigator.com/2018/11/18/know-trouble/

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by starspangled on Saturday September 28, 2024 @07:48AM (#41679634)
I think he didn't want to run tests or present results that might be contrary to the mob's dogma, for fear of retribution.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by dmix on Saturday September 28, 2024 @11:18AM (#41680796)
Or it was merely useful excuse for the narrative about flawed humans and anti science vs science arc
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by SkyMarshal on Friday September 27, 2024 @04:50PM (#41675403)
> Academic scientists' careers are driven by publishing, citations and impact.

Publishing and citations can and are gamed, but is impact also gamed on a wide scale? That one seems harder to fake. Either a result is true and useful, or it's not.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by mike_hearn on Friday September 27, 2024 @05:12PM (#41675577)
Actual real world impact? Hard to game. But, nobody measures that. Everything that's tracked is a circularly defined success metric (you're successful if other academics consider you successful).
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by jonhohle on Friday September 27, 2024 @05:30PM (#41675728)
Convince (lobby) a politician that your research will save the trees/whales/global warming/end starvation/any other fear inducing thing and get funding to bribe (lobby) more politicians to further your “research” until anyone would be a fool to question the science.

I feel like this same story happens every year and people are surprised. I often wonder how many “academic” or “scientific” quotes to not conflate valid research and study) need to happen before it becomes as distrusted as politicians.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by frickinLasers on Friday September 27, 2024 @06:47PM (#41676272)
Academic scientists aren't lobbyists, and politicians aren't giving us money. The funding institutions set research goals. Those funding institutions (staffed by people who actually understand science) don't conduct the research--they choose the winning research plans to fund to achieve their stated goals (1 in 12 applicants, last time I tried). These bureaucrats write budget justifications for Congress--just as the military, Social Security Administration, VA, etc, do. And frankly, compared to those entities, our $40-something billion of the $6 trillion budget is pathetic.

https://static.nationalpriorities.org/images/charts/2021-cha...

https://www.nationalpriorities.org/budget-basics/federal-bud...

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by matthewdgreen on Friday September 27, 2024 @05:29PM (#41675712)
The article mentions that there are two drugs that resulted from this research. One of them failed a trial recently. Nobody knows if this fraud means that the drug never could have worked, or if this was just bad luck. So yes: people do measure real-world impact. It's just that it takes a very long time and there are plenty of confounding factors, since even non-fraudulent drug research can fail.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by mike_hearn on Saturday September 28, 2024 @08:17AM (#41679771)
That's true for the rare case that something turns into a professionally run and controlled trial (incidentally there's evidence for many published clinical trials also being fake). But very little research output is ever tested that way. Most doesn't even claim it could have real world impact in principle.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by matthewdgreen on Monday September 30, 2024 @01:53PM (#41700021)
What you're observing is that most research results don't have much impact. The ones that get replicated are definitionally the ones that matter the most, since they lead to controlled trials. In principle this is a pretty reasonable way to allocate limited resources.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by DigitalPaladin on Friday September 27, 2024 @05:05PM (#41675515)
Oh, yes. Repackaging and reframing of data - as mentioned in the OP article too - is a common practice for farming impact and article numbers too.

Why do novel research when you can just partner up with your friends, bring your data and combine with theirs for the umpteenth paper on the same thing, then wade into spamming down the submissions in every academic journal with impact in your field! If it published once in this journal, surely the 3rd recombination will too (and more often than not... it does.)

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by tokai on Friday September 27, 2024 @05:27PM (#41675701)
Impact here actually means citations. They clumsily say citations twice. Underlining the field of bibliometrics is the idea that citations correlates with the impact the a paper has on scientific discourse. It's intentionally vague because its hard to say what even highly cited papers objectively achieve.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citation_impact

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by Der_Einzige on Friday September 27, 2024 @04:53PM (#41675425)
Oh you sweet summer child. Let me introduce you to the world of ML reviewer/citation cartels!
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by almostgotcaught on Friday September 27, 2024 @05:16PM (#41675617)
> Arguably some have figured how to game the system to advance their careers

lol arguably? i would bet my generous, non-academia, industry salary for the next 10 years, that there's not a single academic with a citation count over say ... 50k (ostensibly the most successful academic) that isn't gaming the system.

- signed someone who got their phd at "prestigous" uni under a guy with >100k citations

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by jonhohle on Friday September 27, 2024 @05:31PM (#41675737)
Username checks out.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by Upvoter33 on Friday September 27, 2024 @05:43PM (#41675851)
There clearly are single examples here and you would lose this bet.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by jltsiren on Friday September 27, 2024 @11:15PM (#41677583)
Citation counts are not very useful. They vary too much between fields and topics. I've seen people finish PhDs with ~20k citations, because they got involved in highly visible projects. And even if they stopped publishing new papers, they would have reached 50k citations in another 5-10 years purely on inertia.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by bbconn on Saturday September 28, 2024 @12:16AM (#41677818)
Terence Tao has well over 50K citations. Maybe one can argue that he’s gaming the system because he alone can decide what problems are deemed to be interesting by the broader community, but he can’t help that.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by BlueTemplar on Saturday September 28, 2024 @12:11PM (#41681132)
In this case, it might matter that mathematics aren't strictly speaking, a science.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by ProjectArcturis on Saturday September 28, 2024 @01:27PM (#41681644)
I would take that bet. I postdoc'd with a very accomplished researcher (he won multiple Nobel Prize "precursor" awards). He certainly understood the social aspect of science - you need to be able to convince people your theories are correct and important - but I wouldn't say he "gamed the system" in any significant way.
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by neycoda on Friday September 27, 2024 @07:34PM (#41676573)
That attitude coincides with current delusion in our society that science is perpetuating a fraud at the level of religions whose leaders are trying to control their flock for financial and sexual gain.

A broken system that incentivizes fraud over knowledge is a real problem.

An assertion that scientists chase the money by nature is a dangerous one that will set us back to the stone age when instead we should be traversing the space as a whole.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by Dalewyn on Friday September 27, 2024 @08:13PM (#41676781)
>Charlie Munger's observation

The more I've read about finances the more I've realized it can also be applied to many other things in the world due to its sheer objectivity.

On the other hand, I've also noticed most if not all of it is based on contexts and data from the mid 20th century. Interesting how that turns out.

Re:Fraud, so much fraud by tester756 on Saturday September 28, 2024 @04:41PM (#41682830)
I'd say in general - concepts from one domain sometimes can be applied/novel in other domain
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by lazyeye on Friday September 27, 2024 @08:31PM (#41676878)
How much do these same incentives apply to climate science, where huge amounts of money are now in play?
Re:Fraud, so much fraud by consf on Saturday September 28, 2024 @03:53PM (#41682574)
But when success is measured by metrics like publication counts, the temptation to cut corners can grow stronger