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Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by standardUser on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @03:53PM (#37756697)
"On the whole people commit crime because they are desperate"

Great comment, but this line demands a response. When so many consensual acts are considered crimes, we end up with a situation where most people are commiting crimes because... they want to. They aren't "desperate" to snort coke, or pay for a blowjob, or play an illegal card game, but they want to do those things and will do so regardless of the criminal status of that act. The only way that changes is by using extreme state violence under an authoritarian regime or, my preferred option, by changing the laws so every Tom, Dick and Harry isn't committing a crime simply by living their lives.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by bumby on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @04:17PM (#37756988)
>by changing the laws so every Tom, Dick and Harry isn't committing a crime simply by living their lives.

I think your comment provides some necessary nuance to the discussion but it may also miss an important consideration. Most Western societies are also highly concerned with stability as well as personal freedom. Making all consensual acts legal may maximize personal freedom at the detriment of stability. It's a balancing act.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by standardUser on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @04:24PM (#37757074)
Sending people off to jail to lose their families and jobs because the drug they like is different than the one the state likes does absolutely nothing to improve social stability. Very much so the opposite.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by bumby on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @04:40PM (#37757234)
Very much agreed. But to the original point, it's about finding a balance. Just like imprisoning people for long periods isn't always conducive to stability, neither is a society full of addicts who struggle to hold down a job or take care of their family. It shouldn't be characterized as an either/or but as finding a reasonable balance.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by standardUser on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @04:44PM (#37757285)
I think the "balance" argument is a diversion because when you examine the actual policies and their outcomes, at no point does it appear that stability is the actual goal. Yes, the idea that we need a balanced approach to individual vs collective rights is valid and should be a guiding star for us. My argument is that it is not - that our policies instead cause greater instability - and the balance argument is nothing more than a rhetorically nice-sounding cover story for these destructive policies.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by hyeonwho22 on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @05:16PM (#37757688)
I would argue that rather than stability a lot of the puritan instinct comes from a desire to see one's children thrive.

The relevant analytical unit at the small scale is the family: I don't want my kids to be temperant because of stability, I want them to abstain from drugs/games/$VICE because that's the path which maximizes the chance of their living a fulfilling life, or (more cynically) which maximizes their chance of bearing me successful grandkids and great grandkids. This is why puritainism is selected for evolutionarily (at least in environments where resources are limited).

To return to the large scale policy questions, I also don't want to see the continent of my children fall to a mercantilist China (using China as an example because Chinese law cracks down hard on drug sales and limits students to one hour of video games per night). Accordingly, I support policies to limit access to addictive substances and stimuli, despite the inevitable conflict between those laws and individual rights. The inequitable enforcement of those laws is another problem entirely, and one which I think would be well solved by starting with the prosecution of celebrities and thought leaders who openly partake in $ADDICTIVE_STIMULUS, and their suppliers.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by bumby on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @05:22PM (#37757749)
This is a pretty reasonable hypothesis, but to add a counterpoint: the nuclear family is relatively recent phenomenon from an evolutionary perspective.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by eastof on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @06:45PM (#37758610)
Not sure how that is a counterpoint, GP doesn't even specify they are talking about a nuclear family. Presumably other family structures have a similar dynamic where they want the youth to succeed.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by bumby on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @07:06PM (#37758786)
Fair enough. From an evolutionary perspective, there is a much smaller distinction between “family” and “society as a whole”. Prior to the nation-state, most of “society” were people known on a personal level.

So I’m not sure that there is a strong distinction between “ensuring my family has a good outcome” and “ensuring a stable society” because a stable society is meant to be a means and not an end. Regardless, this feels a bit like an untestable hypothesis.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by hyeonwho22 on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @12:21PM (#37767428)
On the contrary it is very testable: look at number of grandchildren in families with different moral beliefs and cultural norms. Can look at whether the grandchildren thrive, too.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by bumby on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @12:35PM (#37767677)
Your statement shows why social science is hard. Superficially, sure it seems testable but in reality it is much more difficult.

Good science controls for variables. Counting the number of offspring turns a blind eye to a number of variables that can influence the outcome beyond just moral beliefs or cultural norms. Can you say your results aren't influenced by factors like genetics, environment, war, etc. that are outside those moral beliefs? Even if you could control for them, a lot of that data isn't available from an evolutionary perspective. And even if it was, moral beliefs are not static; you could have one set of morals that leads to higher numbers of offspring in one stage of your life and change morals later. It makes for a messy, and probably untestable, hypothesis.

That's my main gripe that led me to the OP. People tend to take an enormously messy social situation and think they can distill it to a simple model. Real life tends to not work that way.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by bumby on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @04:56PM (#37757456)
This might be confusing my point.

The initial goal of drug laws may be in the vein of stabilizing society, while poor implementation strays from that goal. Both can be true at the same time. Poor implementation begs for better implementation, not the nullification of the goal. I am not defending current drug policies, I'm guarding against the notion that the "solution" is just to make consensual crime legal.

This side-steps a relevant discussion about how you measure societal stability, but that would be a long digression to itself.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by vlovich123 on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @05:15PM (#37757678)
AFAIK the drug laws the US deals with today primarily stem from the “Drug War” which was politically motivated to target Nixon’s “enemies” (blacks and anti-war activists):

> Americans have been criminalizing psychoactive substances since San Francisco’s anti-opium law of 1875, but it was Ehrlichman’s boss, Richard Nixon, who declared the first “War on Drugs” in 1971 and set the country on the wildly punitive and counterproductive path it still pursues.

> [Ehrlichman, Nixon’s advisor for domestic affairs] “The Nixon campaign in 1968, and the Nixon White House after that, had two enemies: the antiwar left and black people. You understand what I’m saying? We knew we couldn’t make it illegal to be either against the war or blacks, but by getting the public to associate the hippies with marijuana and blacks with heroin, and then criminalizing both heavily, we could disrupt those communities. We could arrest their leaders, raid their homes, break up their meetings, and vilify them night after night on the evening news. Did we know we were lying about the drugs? Of course we did.”

https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/the-shocking-and-sickening-st...

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by blq10 on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @06:24PM (#37758456)
Ehh, sort of.

The congressional black caucus were ardent supporters of the war on drugs https://www.wnyc.org/story/312823-black-leaders-once-champio...

So I'm pretty sure that whatever motivation Nixon had, the Black community in the United States wasn't a big fan of drugs and wanted them gone.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by yterdy on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @09:02PM (#37759659)
There's a difference between not being a big fan of drugs and wanting the onerous law enforcement and incarceratorial regime which was eventually implemented. Without much meaningful input from the CBC, I imagine. Your "Ehh, sort of," is quite weak. Going back to marijuana, opiate, and even alcohol prohibition policies, drug laws have always been more about controlling the conjured threat of minority populations than anything else.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by blq10 on Saturday October 07, 2023 @03:58AM (#37799908)
Again, the Black congressional representatives (which, due to districting were mostly representing Black people) were rather openly upset with him...for not going even harder.

That is difficult to square with Nixonian plot to use the carceral apparatus to keep Black people from gaining power.

I guess it does track with revisionism to make anything we currently disagree with to be a product of original sin.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by bumby on Saturday October 07, 2023 @04:12PM (#37805125)
I had never heard of prohibition as a tactic to oppress racial minorities. It seems like you’re trying to shoehorn a narrative.

“nearly every major Black abolitionist and civil rights leader before World War I—from Frederick Douglass, Martin Delany and Sojourner Truth to F.E.W. Harper, Ida B. Wells, W.E.B. Du Bois, and Booker T. Washington—endorsed temperance and prohibition.”

Hardly the group I would associate with oppressing minorities.

[1] https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/02/06/forgotten-...

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by yterdy on Wednesday October 11, 2023 @01:01PM (#37847079)
>I had never heard of prohibition as a tactic to oppress racial minorities.

Not everyone who is white today was white 100 years ago.

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=prohibition+anti+immigrant

Take your pick.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by standardUser on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @05:31PM (#37757848)
I would just add that, based on the prevalence of drug use and abuse in this country, the increasing availability and increasingly reduced cost of illicit drugs, combined with the exceptionally high rate of incarceration and probation compared to other wealthy nations (and even non-wealthy nations), we are clearly doing something spectacularly wrong. And this wrong approach is costing us billions upon billions of wasted dollars, not to mention the cost in human lives and livelihoods. No alternatives should be off the table.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by nikhizzle on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @06:21PM (#37758438)
Just want to say that your comments in this thread are excellent synthesis of a quality I rarely find. You should blog if you don’t already.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by babymode on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @05:17PM (#37757703)
agreed that the discussion about how you measure or even define social stability is probably what's really at stake in this discussion. Policing and the concept of criminality provide a kind of 'stability' in the form of social control to governments. On the other hand, those same forces can be incredibly destabilising to the social lives of everyone who is criminalised, their families and friends, especially given that criminalisation for so many people is often a death sentence.

The other thing I'd like to just bring up is that the either/or between criminalising/not criminalising drugs can sometimes miss that there are many creative, diverse and humanising responses to problematic drug use that don't depend on control via the threat of punishment

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by bedobi on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @06:01PM (#37758203)
do you also think the state should criminalize religion? given the ubiquitous problems caused by religion in the public sphere, the domestic lives of countless millions families etc etc?
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by bumby on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @06:34PM (#37758536)
Not unless the mechanism includes repealing the 1st amendment. Part of finding a good balance recognizes there is a hierarchy of principles.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by rexpop on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @05:21PM (#37757738)
Au contraire! Persecution of the lower classes can do wonders for the preservation of a certain order. Aldus Huxley imagined an imposition of fetal alcohol syndrome to keep the trades in their place, but we do it more cheeply by destroying families and carting men off to work slave labor. Overzealous policing synergizes nicely with the myth of meritocry by helping the middle class (MLK's "white moderate") attribute socioeconomic divisions to heritable "merit."

And thus is the pyramid scheme maintained.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by shuckles on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @05:29PM (#37757818)
Very few people are in prison for simple possession. The American justice system, contrary to most popular sentiment, is quite diversionary. As a percentage, Sweden probably has more people in prison for drug possession than America.

Most prisoners have been convicted of a violent crime.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by bumby on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @05:45PM (#37758008)
I was originally skeptical of this. Based on what I found it seems like incarceration levels are about 1.27x higher for violent crimes.

State data:

Total violent crimes (2020): 651,800

Non violent crimes (property/drug/public order/other) (2020): 141,100/131,600/109,100/6,800. Total=388,600

Federal data:

Total violent crimes (2020): 10,547

Non violent crimes: (property/drug/public order/other) (2020): 5,950/66,474/58,894/433, Total = 131,751

Combined:

Violent crime (2020): 662,347

Non-violent crime (2020): 520,351

With that said, there is massive disparity in federal crimes, where there are almost 7x the sentences for drug crimes compared to violent crimes. But that includes trafficking etc. and can't be characterized as 'simple possession'

https://felonvoting.procon.org/incarcerated-felon-population...

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by bryanrasmussen on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @05:55PM (#37758130)
as a general rule when one makes statements that go against the common wisdom one should also make some sort of effort at showing the cause for ones arguments, but at any rate here is a stat that says 1 in 5 prisoners are in prison for a drug offense https://www.prisonpolicy.org/graphs/pie2023_drugs.html

yes I know a drug offense is not just simple possession but I mean, you didn't try to provide anything for your astounding claims, so I figure I could get the ball rolling here.

as far as Sweden https://www.statista.com/statistics/534214/sweden-persons-se...

3237 people in Swedish Prison for drug offenses

Sweden has a population of over 10 million so less than 0.03%

going by this https://www.prisonpolicy.org/blog/2020/01/16/percent-incarce... I figure the American rate must be 0.2%

It is not close. Which is what I think most people would predict - that it was not even close.

on edit: I see Bumby went and got some stats too, to clarify I don't doubt that violent offenses outweigh other offenses, what I doubt is that America does not have a large number of people incarcerated for drug possession.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by shuckles on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @06:19PM (#37758402)
> It is not close. Which is what I think most people would predict - that it was not even close.

With the caveat that drug offenses include manufacturing, trafficking, and sales:

Your data is consistent with my claim: I meant the denominator being the prison population, not the entire population. Sweden has about 8600 people in prison so about 37% of their prison population is in there for "drug offenses", whereas in the United States it's less than 1 in 5 per your Prison Policy citation. Obviously if you treat entire population as the denominator, then any comparison of Swedish and American prisons is useless because we incarcerate a much larger percent of the population.

Edit: I realize my original comment said "people" not "proportion of people", but in my defense interpreting it to be people literally is a bit absurd. Sweden's population is about 30x smaller than the United States, so there's no way the counts are comparable!

Edit 2: Actually no I did say “As a percentage”. Whew.

Next, you can see from this sample of federal prison (table on page 2): though drug offenses were the most serious charge for half of prisoners, only 0.1% was for possession. The rest was for trafficking and sales. https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/dofp12.pdf

This data is from 2010, and the United States has undergone a decriminalization revolution since regarding possession, so new prosecutions are even less likely to be possession claims.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by OkayPhysicist on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @08:00PM (#37759185)
> With the caveat that drug offenses include manufacturing, trafficking, and sales

With the caveat to your caveat that "sales" in the US tends to include anything above 1 or 2 doses. I'm no bartender, but I'll still buy beer by the twelve pack.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by shuckles on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @08:45PM (#37759549)
It’d be hard to convince a jury beyond a reasonable doubt that you intended to distribute beers from a 12 pack.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by OkayPhysicist on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @12:43PM (#37767846)
Only because most jurors have some background knowledge of what constitutes a "normal" amount of beer to buy and consume. A gram of cocaine could be described as 6 lines, or it could be called several dozen bumps. The prosecution is going to go up there and wax poetic about how you'd only buy multiple thirtyracks if you're planning on throwing a party i.e. distributing, and your average jury will eat that up.

Assuming you even get to a jury trial. For most pseudo-distribution cases like this, the defendant is going to plead out, because they know they're dead to rights on the possession charge, and if the judge throws the book at them for that then they may well have been better off taking the distribution plea deal.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by shuckles on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @01:36PM (#37768747)
This varies a lot by jurisdiction so it’s hard to determine aggregate impacts. For every anecdote of judges throwing the book at someone, I could probably offer one of judges letting off someone easy. The important point stands regardless: Sweden has a larger percent of its prison population incarcerated for drug offenses than the United States. Most people going to prison were convicted of a violent crime.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by OkayPhysicist on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @02:46PM (#37769765)
Sorry, maybe I was unclear: the potentially high penalties for possession are used a threat, to push people into pleading guilty on the distribution charges. Possession alone can potentially land you in jail for up to 3 years. Distribution has a wider range, from 1 year up to potentially 9 years.

If you're caught in possession of a couple grams of coke, then the prosecutor is going to want to get you on distribution. They can say something like "You will be found guilty of possession, we both know that. If you plead guilty on both counts, we can recommend concurrent sentencing and you'll be out of prison in less than two years. If you don't take the deal, we're going to push for everything we can get: even if you get off on the distribution charge, you'll still be in prison for 3 years for possession."

Now, you or I, affluent tech-bros that this forum attracts, know that this is a terrible deal. We'd hire a lawyer, fight it tooth and nail, and walk away with a possession conviction and a slap on the wrist sentence. But if you're some broke kid, with a public defender who's really just there to counsel you on what plea deal you should take, it might not seem like such a bad idea.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by shuckles on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @07:52PM (#37773257)
I understand how pre-trial negotiations work, and I am not an affluent tech bro. In fact, I spent some time consulting DA offices throughout the country on how to adopt best practices in criminal justice reform. Public defenders are not universally pushovers and judges and juries are not universally looking for blood.

Like I said, getting aggregate statistics on how pleading down impacts the composition of the prison population is very hard, but the fact of the matter is most people who end up in prison don’t do so because of anything which looks like only recreational drug use.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by komali2 on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @11:43PM (#37760608)
Functionally, some % of those "trafficking" or "sales" charges are actually "possession" charges.

https://www.justcriminallaw.com/drug-charges/2023/04/24/drug...

> You can be charged with drug trafficking even if you have not actually sold any drugs. Prosecutors will try to show that you were in possession of a controlled substance and planned to sell or distribute it, even if you were going to distribute it for free or use it with friends.

Texas is finally calming down on weed but back when I was in college I knew plenty of friends that were slapped with "trafficking" because they had some normal amount of grams on them and the cops just went for it. That lets prosecutors scare them into shitty deals because with trafficking you're looking at years of prison.

Considering the scale of the American prison industrial complex, I'm sure plenty of people didn't have good enough lawyers to get the bogus trafficking charges thrown out.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by pclmulqdq on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @01:59AM (#37761347)
Also, some of the possession charges are about sales and distribution. Cops often put the lower charge on reports, and prosecutors also often plead down your case.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by bryanrasmussen on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @01:52AM (#37761299)
Ok, fair enough that you meant the percentage of the population incarcerated was higher, as opposed to the percentage of the population as a whole. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

As per OkayPhysicist's point about what counts as possession and trafficking, many drugs require larger dosages with habitual use and the courts do not take this into account.

on edit: I see Komali did a better job pointing out that lots of traffiking and sales are actually possession.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by shuckles on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @07:00AM (#37763407)
Komali only claimed some percent are possession, not “lots”. And I’m going to disagree: overcharging is definitely a problem but there’s lots of pleading down as well. There are jurisdictions where you can plead down a violent crime to a drug offense. Because these strategies vary so much between DAs, it’s hard to get aggregates on how much this is happening.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by phatskat on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @09:30AM (#37764855)
I would like to note that the terms “possession”, “sale”, and trafficking” are a bit tricky when it comes to drug law. My home state could consider anyone with over a quarter ounce of cannabis to have “intent to distribute”. I would regularly buy whole ounces for personal use because it’s much cheaper than buying small amounts, but that also meant that if I were ever caught I would be facing charges for sale and trafficking.

These also vary state to state, and while a white kid with a 1/4 might not get possession, a black kid with the same amount might get the book thrown at him depending on who’s prosecuting the crime.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by gruez on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @06:06PM (#37758252)
>yes I know a drug offense is not just simple possession but I mean, you didn't try to provide anything for your astounding claims, so I figure I could get the ball rolling here.

The same source[1] lists drug possession as 34k of 132k total in state prisons. That suggests only a quarter of the drug offenses are actually for possession, and it's only 3.2% of the overall state prison population. That said, those figures represent the upper bound of of people in prison for possession, because offenses could be pleaded down.

[1] https://www.prisonpolicy.org/reports/pie2023.html

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by zlurker on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @06:15PM (#37758347)
> Most prisoners have been convicted of a violent crime.

this challenged my conceptions a little bit, while I wasn't blown a way by it, I did expect possession to be a higher percent of the whole. Here are some sources for others who are curious:

At yearend 2019 (the most recent year for which state prison offense data are available), 58% of all persons imprisoned by states had been sentenced for violent offenses (710,800 prisoners) [https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/p20st.pdf page 28]

For the same year, 46,700 people were in prison with the most serious crime being possession. This represents 3.8% of the prison population.

However; the above are statistics for STATE prisons. The federal system seems to be murkier, with 46% (67,000~) of inmates being their for drug related reasons. Unlike state breakdowns, drug crimes are differentiated here. If we assume the breakdown between possession and other charges is the same as state levels (a VERY shaky assumption) we'd expect 10% of the federal system to be related to possession.

Averaging some of these numbers, it seems that even in a 'worst case scenario' roughly 9% of inmates are in for possession, but more realistically we're looking at around 4%.

I expected this to be in the 10-20% range prior to looking into this more deeply, something that isn't helped by the piss-poor dashboards by BOP https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_offen...

EDIT: started researching this prior to seeing that others had posted :)

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by shuckles on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @06:24PM (#37758458)
0.1% of federal prisoners in 2012 were in there with possession being the most serious charged crime: https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/dofp12.pdf

I would bet good money that rate is even lower now. Many states proceeded with decriminalization campaigns for possession in the meantime, most reasoning from false premises.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by Legogris on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @10:13PM (#37760063)
> Sweden probably has more people in prison for drug possession than America.

Don't know if you picked Sweden in particular intentionally but they are very much an outlier of their own when it comes to drug-related crime. Simple possession of small quantities for personal use can still have you end up in jail or even prison for up to 6 months.

They're still all-in on the War on Drugs.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by shuckles on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @10:30PM (#37760167)
Outlier in what sense? Oregon is more of an outlier than Sweden. Let’s not even add East Asia to the spectrum of drug policy approaches.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by blq10 on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @06:20PM (#37758426)
The state does not like those drugs because society does not like those drugs, and in the case of certain drugs, like heroin and other harder drugs we have decided that it is rational to attempt to keep them off the streets rather than agree to legal use.

It's fun to declare it "things the state doesn't like", but I legitimately don't see anyone legalizing meth or heroin anytime soon.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by alasdair_ on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @06:59PM (#37758729)
>It's fun to declare it "things the state doesn't like", but I legitimately don't see anyone legalizing meth or heroin anytime soon.

Portugal did exactly this (or decriminalized them for personal use anyway).

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by whats_a_quasar on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @07:05PM (#37758775)
There are signs that policy is not going well: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/07/portugal-dru...

The state has a legitimate interest in limiting the number of people taking opioids in public. It's self-defeating to do that through mass incarceration. To be determined how well decriminalization works. But it's definitely not that the government just doesn't like drugs - hard drugs really do have societal costs.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by a_bonobo on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @08:56PM (#37759622)
I think the article makes a point that is overlooked:

>After years of economic crisis, Portugal decentralized its drug oversight operation in 2012. A funding drop from 76 million euros ($82.7 million) to 16 million euros ($17.4 million) forced Portugal’s main institution to outsource work previously done by the state to nonprofit groups, including the street teams that engage with people who use drugs. The country is now moving to create a new institute aimed at reinvigorating its drug prevention programs.

Can't decriminalize drugs if you stop funding drug treatment programs and chuck it all onto underfunded NGOs who have their own motivations.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by bumby on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @10:09AM (#37765443)
I think this underscores that these problems are more complicated than may want to acknowledge. I don't think you're doing this, but part of this thread started as a pushback to the simplistic sentiment that implied we just need to decriminalize.

As you point out, we can simultaneously criticize our current policies while acknowledging simplistic replacement policies aren't really solutions.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by cwkoss on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @12:37AM (#37760908)
Meth is already legal. It's called desoxyn
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by bumby on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @10:11AM (#37765460)
I believe they meant recreationally legal. There are lots of medications that are also used as recreational drugs (cocaine, opiates, etc.) but their use shouldn't be conflated.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by diogenes4 on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @04:36PM (#37757199)
> Most Western societies are also highly concerned with stability as well as personal freedom.

All states are at least seemingly concerned with balancing the collective and individual freedoms. Western ones just have the arrogance to claim they do it the best. If it's any consolation the chinese claim the same.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by rexpop on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @05:22PM (#37757750)
So, by your own words, there's plenty of arrogance to go around.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by diogenes4 on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @06:17PM (#37758374)
Absolutely, the state prerogative is to presume excellence. That doesn't mean we need to take this attitude at face value as rational humans.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by Buttons840 on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @05:35PM (#37757883)
Are you claiming that, all else equal, the government that criminalizes common acts is more stable than the government that does not?
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by bumby on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @05:49PM (#37758059)
Not necessarily. I'm saying a government that takes measures to mitigate increasing the extremes of common acts that lead to destructive behavior can be more stable.

E.g., I'm not sure the current trend of increasing access to gambling will lead to a more stable society, although it increases freedom. There's a balancing act there too.

What I'm not saying: the current policies are the best ways to mitigate those risk in order to increase stability.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by haroldp on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @08:38PM (#37759506)
> Making all consensual acts legal may maximize personal freedom at the detriment of stability.

From a practical standpoint, this depends on the notion that prohibitions actually increase stability. No place that drugs have been legalized or decriminalized have seen significant increases in addiction rates, for instance. No place that legalizes drugs will need criminal gangs to supply them anymore. Restricting consensual acts reduces a society's stability considerably.

From a moral standpoint, giving anyone the authority to prohibit victimless acts is a pandora's box human rights violations. Who chooses what is worth oppressing in the name of stability? So soon after gay marriage (or just being gay at all) was legalized and we are already forgetting this lesson.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by pc86 on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @08:58AM (#37764419)
"Making all consensual acts legal" is certainly an easy strawman to argue against, but maybe there's a middle ground between that anarchist hellscape and "owning this fish that is not explicitly illegal in the US but is illegal in Honduras can land you in federal prison."[0]

[0] https://youtu.be/d-7o9xYp7eE?si=SRgwkNR5fef7m3M4&t=308

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by bumby on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @10:14AM (#37765516)
Assuming my reply is advocating for those types of policies is a strawman as well. Central to my post is that there needs to be a balance.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by tech_ken on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @04:05PM (#37756842)
That’s a really good point, although I do think the desperation/desire line in the case of ex. snorting coke is somewhat blurry. Overall though yes, in my mind I was imagining “serious crimes” like theft or interpersonal violence, rather than vice crimes like sex work or gambling. Definitely in many cases desperation is not a factor, but in many other cases I believe that it is.

Edit: I would also say that providing sex services is probably an act of desperation in many cases, even if paying for them isn’t.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by standardUser on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @04:22PM (#37757047)
Ok, I have to push back again. Having known many sex workers, while it is certainly an income option of last resort for many people, it is not always. I know some people who are very established in their careers and there is nothing desperate about it (even if the origin of the career path in some cases was). And others, like dominatrixes, often train specifically and purposefully to purse a career in sex work that they enjoy. There's a million variations, but this knee-jerk "all sex workers are desperate" nonsense is starting to sound really antiquated and ill-informed. And rude.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by tech_ken on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @04:35PM (#37757192)
Sure I never said "all sex workers are desperate", I said "in many cases". There was a great book I read a while back "Revolting Prostitutes" which talks about this distinction between types of sex workers. There are many, many sex workers who are perfectly happy doing their work, and I believe that these are the people you know (the book gives this group the tongue-in-cheek name "happy hookers"). However on the whole these people tend to be affluent and well-connected (which could also be extrapolated from knowing an HN poster), and as such get over-represented in our current sex-work discourse IMO. Responses like this, which use these "happy" sex workers to push back on the negative aspects of sex work experienced by people who are acting out of desperation obscures a lot of important nuance at play. No doubt that the moralizing "all sex workers are abused and need saving" is equally if not more harmful, but I think it's really important that we acknowledge that for many people sex work is often just that: work (which is also the take of "Revolting Prostitutes"). Understanding it as a form of labor, subject to all the usual abuses of labor plus the extras unique to sex work is IMO a really important framing for thinking about sex work as a crime. This is where I'm coming from when I describe "many" sex workers as "desperate"; they are people who really need income doing the best work they can find (either best pay, most flexible hours, etc). Not trying to condemn anyone for their choice of career or side-hustle, but ignoring the reality that many sex workers are exploited by their employers and clients is IMO far more rude than my previous comment
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by standardUser on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @04:41PM (#37757246)
Upvoted and apologies for being too aggressive in that last comment.

I would only add that it is my understanding that most sex workers would very much like sex work to simply be considered work, and that the only way to improve conditions for all sex workers is to end criminalization of consensual sex between adults, paid or otherwise. At least that's the overwhelming consensus of the swers I know and the stuff I read/follow on the topic.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by tech_ken on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @04:52PM (#37757409)
Thanks, and no problem! It's a touchy subject and there's lots of shitty takes on it so I get the reaction. Definitely agree that the best solution is simply decriminalization, maybe with the addition of improved support services for the populations that do find themselves turning to sex work out of need.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by mrWiz on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @04:43PM (#37757271)
The comment you're responding to doesn't say anything about "all" sex workers, nor even "most". Just "many", the same as you say in your post.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by standardUser on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @04:48PM (#37757350)
It says "providing sex services is probably an act of desperation in many cases" which was enough to trigger me, but I agree I overreacted and posted a follow up.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by ziddoap on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @04:00PM (#37756777)
>but they want to do those things and will do so regardless of the criminal status of that act

Isn't doing something regardless of potential consequences just another way to define desperate?

Edit: was attempting to be pithy, but apparently would need to spend quite a bit more time to get my point across (and, in the end, doesn't change/add to the discussion), so consider me wrong

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by standardUser on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @04:06PM (#37756843)
>Isn't doing something regardless of potential consequences just another way to define desperate?

No, it is not. If you give a speech in front of a crowd you may embarrass yourself. Are you desperate to give that speech because there are potential consequences? If you go rock climbing you might fall and break your leg. Are you desperate to go rock climbing, simply because it involves risk? I don't see the logic at all.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by bumby on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @04:14PM (#37756939)
You might be conflating the proximate and root causes of the act. I may not get in front of a crowd because I'm desperate to give a speech, but I may be desperate to keep my job, or desperate for status, or something else. Likewise, with rock-climbing, maybe I'm desperate for an adrenaline high or a novel experience. To be generous to the OP, I think "desperate" just means the gains from the experience outpace the perceived risks.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by ziddoap on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @04:16PM (#37756969)
This is more aligned with what I poorly expressed, thanks.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by saulpw on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @04:20PM (#37757026)
desperate: Having lost all hope; despairing.

It's just the wrong word, then, by a huge margin.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by bumby on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @04:41PM (#37757250)
In such discussions, its usually better to strive to understand what the commenter actually meant rather than being pedantically correct. The OP clarified their point.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by ziddoap on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @04:22PM (#37757054)
desperate: needing or wanting something very much (Cambridge Dictionary)

There's multiple definitions

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by itishappy on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @05:00PM (#37757526)
I think you actually make a good point for rock climbing being a desperate act. Most humans don't climb rocks. Whether out of complacency or fear, that feels pretty rational! Some choose to ignore the risks. Desperate for adventure, perhaps?

I don't give speeches to large crowds either, that sounds hella stressful. That won't stop me, but I'd have to be desperate for the respect or attention.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by louthy on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @04:06PM (#37756852)
Of course it isn’t. If a law is idiotic then breaking it can either be an act of rebellion or just outright contempt
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by IIAOPSW on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @05:36PM (#37757904)
I'll chime in.

There's 4 things we call "crime" and the only thing they have in common is that the state sends in an agent to physically restrain you from doing it.

1) Rational crime. Someone looked at the payoff to getting away, the cost to getting caught, and the probability of each and concluded the expected payoff was positive.

2) Victimless crime.

3) Political crime. Crime where the point is to openly defy the law itself. From Rosa Parks sitting in front of the bus to the unknown man standing in front of the tank, we all know what this looks like.

4) Deranged crime. Actual anus-type personality disorder.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by gruez on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @06:03PM (#37758223)
Where does "use illegal substances" and "illegally camp in a city park" fall in the above classification?
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by eastof on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @06:12PM (#37758325)
> use illegal substances

victimless crime on it's own

> illegally camp in a city park

rational crime, you want payoff of not sleeping in the rain and probability of being swept out of the area is unlikely depending on where you set up

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by gruez on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @06:16PM (#37758371)
>victimless crime on it's own

Seems reasonable for something like weed, but for "hard" drugs like meth there's clearly a negative externalitiy imposed on the community from your unstable behavior.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by tnorthcutt on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @06:27PM (#37758483)
Yes, but perhaps the poster's point is that the drug use isn't the problem, it's the harmful behaviors of the person who is using the drugs.

So perhaps their point is that the crime should be the harmful behaviors, not the drug use.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by jojobas on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @07:14PM (#37758850)
When someone has already sold all he could to buy drugs and is now resorting to theft to get a fix, it's a bit too late to intervene. Hard drugs have a very high preponderance to cause detrimental behaviours, and convert a productive member of society to a welfare-consuming blob at best. Of course they should be banned.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by TheOtherHobbes on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @07:46PM (#37759079)
This is looking at effects, not causes.

Addiction is made worse by social and economic stresses. So is anti-social behaviour.

If you want to fix addiction and personal violence, start by removing systemic political and economic violence and assembling a reliable social contract.

Start modelling and dramatising pro-social behaviours in the media - which can be done in a gritty and relatable way, not a saccharine and patronising way.

This won't end addiction, violence, and mental illness, but it will make these problems less prevalent and easier to target and manage.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by jojobas on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @08:02PM (#37759211)
Economic violence gets dumb kids hooked on meth. Warning: this is what Scientologists actually believe.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by komali2 on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @11:35PM (#37760557)
https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/poverty-homelessness-and...

> But in another, critical sense, addiction does discriminate among people, in a way that is unjust and deadly, and in a way that shines a spotlight on tears in the socioeconomic web that is holding our society together. It has long been observed by clinicians that social determinants of health (SDoH) can tip the scales against people, in their already daunting quest to recover from any type of addiction. According to the World Health Organization, SDoH are defined as "the conditions in which people are born, grow, live, work, and age. These circumstances are shaped by the distribution of money, power, and resources at global, national, and local levels."

https://stjosephinstitute.com/understanding-the-relationship...

> Poverty Increases Addiction Risk Factors

As they said, it's not a causal link, but it is correlative.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by jojobas on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @07:03AM (#37763426)
The conditions of the poorest 10% have vastly improved over the last 100 years, both in relative and absolute terms, and keep improving. Wherever you draw the poverty line, both the percentage and quantity of people below the line keeps diminishing.

Poor Americans of today have better healthcare than kings of 300 years ago.

Somebody will inevitably be in the bottom 10% of any measure. Your reductionist approach to human agency and freedom of will is appalling.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by komali2 on Thursday October 05, 2023 @05:19AM (#37776479)
> Your reductionist approach to human agency and freedom of will is appalling.

I don't understand where this is coming from at all. I value human agency and freedom most of all.

> Poor Americans of today have better healthcare than kings of 300 years ago.

Yes, in the last 300 years we started using soap and also discovered penicillin, this has indeed caused enormous leaps forward in medical care. Did you mean medical access? That is still highly striated based on class, and our royalty class seems to be smaller but far more wealthy now (the difference in net worth between our top .1%, 1%, and 90% is astounding).

> The conditions of the poorest 10% have vastly improved over the last 100 years, both in relative and absolute terms, and keep improving.

People say this all of the time but outside of soap and penicillin I'm not exactly sure what people are talking about. The poor and starving seem to only exist in greater numbers than ever in history. Perhaps the conditions of the absolute poorest in American society are slightly better than the absolute poorest in American society 200 years ago, but at the cost of creating new poverty classes abroad in colonized places that previously had relatively low technological development but much higher happiness and quality of life than they do now.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by haroldp on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @08:23PM (#37759396)
Hard drugs can be extremely harmful. So you make them illegal. Now you have two problems. Most of the problems that you associate with drug abuse are exacerbated or wholly created by the prohibition rather than the addiction that it purports but entirely fails to fix.

> resorting to theft to get a fix

Does this pattern characterize alcohol addicts as well? Or do the vast majority of alcoholics generally just hold down jobs to buy booze? Heroin is only expensive because it is illegal. Poppies will grow pretty well in just about every state in America. It is the prohibition that forces heroin junkies to rob and steal and whore for money. It is the prohibition that creates the gangs and cartels and adds the violence. When was the last time you saw a street battle between the grocery store and the bodega over alcohol territory? 1933 is the answer. When was the last time someone died from a mis-dosed, tainted or adulterated cocktail? 1933.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by jojobas on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @08:36PM (#37759494)
It typically takes many years of irresponsible alcohol consumption to become so dependent on it as to not survive a normal working day without, and then typically liver cirrhosis will take care of you.

Heroin is ludicrously more potent in that regard, in mere weeks you're either high or in withdrawal.

The fact that alcohol was once also illegal doesn't make them somehow equally harmful on physiological or societal level.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by haroldp on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @08:50PM (#37759590)
This is very silly. Highly dependent alcoholics are all around us every day, and very few of them are living on the streets. They will shorten their lives, on average, but cirrhosis isn't an assassin that comes in the night after 10 years of alcoholism. There are millions of old drunks in the world. Most of them buy their own booze with their own labor.

And indeed, if you are rich enough or have enough clout to avoid police problems, you can be a heroin addict for decades. You can even stay productive. Take for instance, The Rolling Stones.

I don't even feel the need to debate that the primary and secondary effects of legal alcohol addition are huge and expensive.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by chii on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @12:56AM (#37761002)
Those anecdotes are more the exception rather than the rule.

Most addicts cannot function well without some outside resource being used up to keep them well functioning.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by hutzlibu on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @02:50AM (#37761701)
That is maybe, because most of them start doing hard drugs, when they are already not functioning well. And then Heroin gives them the rest and they turn into messed up junkies and criminals.

And since it is illegal, it is hard to get data on how many people use hard drugs while maintaining a normal life. Those who are successful, don't draw attention. I always thought otherwise, but was surprised a couple of times, by finding out seemingly normal people use heroin on a semi regular basis. So apparently some people can do it.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by haroldp on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @03:17AM (#37761892)
> Those anecdotes are more the exception rather than the rule.

That is false. Most addicts are nicotine and alcohol addicts and they function ok, in general, without special support. They have plenty of problems, to be sure, but prohibition would only multiply them.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by buttercraft on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @11:11AM (#37766335)
Don't forget caffeine. People brag about being addicted to it.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by haroldp on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @12:05PM (#37767196)
For sure. Lots of people have developed a chemical dependance on coffee/caffeine, and might suffer certain ill effects of withdrawal if they stopped drinking it. Yet most would not be considered addicts, per se because almost all of them drink coffee simply because they enjoy it, could easily quit if they wished, and are not continuing use despite serious negative consequences.

Chemical dependance is neither necessary nor sufficient for addiction.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by sfn42 on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @08:43AM (#37764269)
Most drug users aren't addicts. You just don't see them because they look just like everyone else.

Millions of people use opiates on a daily basis and live otherwise normal lives.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by jojobas on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @05:25AM (#37762796)
About 2/3 of American adults drink alcohol. About 0.3% of Americans took heroin within last year, x200 difference.

Diagnosed alcohol vs heroin use disorder: 14.8M vs 1.1M, x13 difference.

Addiction treatment stats: 50% alcohol, 5% heroin, x10 difference (percentages of all addiction treatments).

The sole fact that the two are on the same scale in terms of deaths, delinquency and even visibility should indicate that that per capita hard of heroin and alcohol are incomparable.

You sure can rock a concert while being high, not so much in withdrawal, and you wouldn't want you bus driver, nurse, teacher or pretty much anyone else around you be in either.

But sure, feel free to count yet another dangerous, addictive, yet inexplicably socially accepted psychoactive drug in the same list with heroin - coffee.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by haroldp on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @11:52AM (#37766978)
> You sure can rock a concert while being high, not so much in withdrawal, and you wouldn't want you bus driver, nurse, teacher or pretty much anyone else around you be in either.

These are problem behaviors with or without prohibition. And prohibition doesn't seem to reduce them. So you have not fixed them with prohibition, you have only imported the additional problems of cartel drug manufacturers, violent drug gangs, purity dosing and adulteration deaths, infectious disease spread through dirty needles, political corruption, an oversized militarized and swamped criminal justice system, and all the crime associated with needing to rob, steal and whore for drugs priced at 100X what they would cost if legal.

> But sure, feel free to count yet another dangerous, addictive, yet inexplicably socially accepted psychoactive drug in the same list with heroin - coffee.

Also pornography, sex, gambling, shopping, etc. Chemical dependance is neither required nor sufficient for addiction to be a destructive force in a person's life. What can't we ban if we decide it is sufficiently harmful?

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by Eisenstein on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @09:28PM (#37759822)
ADHD drugs like adderall are a tiny step from meth (and you can actually get meth under prescription for ADHD; brand name Desoxyn) and people take them every day from childhood on without becoming destitute.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by eru on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @11:29PM (#37760531)
That's broadly true. Though do keep in mind that therapeutic doses of stimulants for treatment of ADHD are tiny fraction of 'party' doses.

Btw, nicotine works well against ADHD for most. (Smoking is about the worst way to get nicotine. Plasters or even vaping are better alternatives.) See https://gwern.net/nicotine

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by Nursie on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @12:31AM (#37760872)
Addicts who have access to 'maintenance' doses of heroin are often able to function relatively normally.

It turns out that if you're having to find hundreds of dollars a day and you're not sure you're going to even be able to find that next hit, and you don't know the purity of what you're getting, or have access to clean needles, or ... things get rapidly worse for you over and above the effects of the drug itself.

Addicts who do have access to cheap or free doses, and who do know that they can access these reliably, and who do have access to clean equipment, known doses of known substances etc, can stabilise their lives, hold down jobs and often can slowly come off the substance, or be persuaded onto programs that can get them clean over time.

I know that western societies in general aren't ready for this, because there would be outraged howls of "OMG we can't just be giving drugs to junkies! And we're paying for their drugs! This is highly immoral!". However from what I've read in the past it's better all round for us to use this sort of compassionate approach to heroin addiction - addicts get help to get their lives together and it's cheaper for the rest of us to support them like this than it is to put up with the high levels of petty crime they otherwise commit, pay the costs to incarcerate them and fight the gangs of drug traffickers. Further, these sorts of things can cut down on new users, and I believe this was found out in Switzerland - there's very little that's alluring about a line of tired, grey, old-looking faces lining up outside the heroin clinic every morning, that's not what edgy, rock-n-roll kids want to get into ...

I'm not advocating that heroin should be sold openly in shops like alcohol, but there is a wide territory between that and where we are now, and I feel a real solution (or at least a better path) lies somewhere in that territory.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by Eisenstein on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @05:53AM (#37762958)
We can do this already without heroin -- suboxone. The problem is that it isn't easy to get it and when you do get it very few doctors will prescribe it as a maintenance medication.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by Nursie on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @06:29AM (#37763165)
That’s not exactly the same and while I understand it’s a great treatment for a lot of people, I think I’m talking about a path that leads people more easily towards suboxone. Just plain giving them heroin safely, cheaply and predictably can help addicts start to get their lives back on track. And then maybe move to suboxone when they’re ready.

But I guess regardless of the specifics (and I’m sure I’m not the expert here anyway), the point is that we ought to be trying what works, for the addicts and for the rest of us to reduce their associated crime, rather than sticking to dogma and judgement.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by CaptainZapp on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @09:04AM (#37764488)
> Just plain giving them heroin safely, cheaply and predictably can help addicts start to get their lives back on track

That's part of Switzerland's drug policy since the late 90s of the last century. It was confirmed multiple times in referundums by the public and I think it's overall very successful.

The greatest success, in my opinion, is that it completely reversed the image of heroin consumption. By turning it from a "hero" drug to a total loser drug.

Cool kids don't do heroin nowadays.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by eru on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @09:23PM (#37759787)
You should probably lobby for opium legalisation, as the comparatively milder alternative to heroin.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by haroldp on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @11:11PM (#37760421)
Strategically? Perhaps. Morally and practically? I support broad legalization.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by eru on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @11:26PM (#37760512)
I support broad legalisation plus taxation. Very similar to what's common for alcohol and nicotine around the globe.

Despite being legalised, alcohol still causes problems. But I doubt banning alcohol would decrease problems on net (especially compared to heavy taxation).

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by haroldp on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @03:14AM (#37761872)
> I doubt banning alcohol would decrease problems on net

This has been thoroughly tested. It was a bloodbath.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by eru on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @04:04AM (#37762224)
Which occasions of testing are you referring to?

The American experiment with prohibition did not work out well, yes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_alcohol... lists a few more countries that current limit or ban alcohol. I don't think they all have bloodbaths?

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by haroldp on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @11:41AM (#37766785)
Banning something is not the main problem, per se. It's banning something the people want. You could ban durians in the US and maybe a couple would get smuggled into an Indonesian neighborhood, but it would never turn into a gang war. If you look at the countries that have banned alcohol, they are also mostly the countries where the culture has strong and effective prohibitions on alcohol, and people police themselves for the most part.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by eru on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @09:25PM (#37773892)
That is a good point.

Do keep in mind that the US did have a strong abolitionist movement as part of their culture. And still has! The Puritan heritage that's against any fun is strong with them.

Another side note: restrictions on smoking in restaurants, workplaces and other areas largely preceded shifts in culture in many jurisdictions. So legislation can predate changes in culture. However, I don't know whether that's just a coincidence, or if there's a causal effect? Also, legislation that makes desirable things inconvenient, but doesn't outright ban them, probably has a much, much lower chance of turning into gang wars. (That's a big part of why not-too-high taxation works fairly well for drugs.)

Yet another tangent: we often see drug production and distribution as part of organised crime. But economically, it is perhaps better to view the drug business as a victim of organised crime: as you can see by the legalisation of alcohol and more recently cannabis, people in the industry would much rather just do their business and satisfy customers; but organised, violent crime can become a parasite on any activity that's shut off from recourse to the police and legal system to defend themselves.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by haroldp on Saturday October 07, 2023 @10:17PM (#37807303)
> Do keep in mind that the US did have a strong abolitionist movement as part of their culture.

To be sure. The 18th Amendment was passed by a majority of Americans. However it outlawed, "intoxicating liquors". It was the Volsted Act, passed to be the nuts and bolts of enforcement for the 18th, that outlawed everything, much to the surprise and dismay of a fair faction of its supporters. The Presidents of the United States maintained a liquor cabinet in the White House throughout Prohibition. The actual implementation of Prohibition lost many of its supporters and the negative unintended consequences of prohibition lost many more.

> But economically, it is perhaps better to view the drug business as a victim of organized crime

Of course. Milton Friedman said, "If you look at the drug war from a purely economic point of view, the role of the government is to protect the drug cartel."

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by dragonwriter on Saturday October 07, 2023 @10:25PM (#37807341)
> The 18th Amendment was passed by a majority of Americans

No, it wasn't, that's not how Constitutional Amendments work.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by dzhiurgis on Thursday October 05, 2023 @07:21AM (#37777180)
Maybe start banning alcohol in somewhere it's already pretty much undesired?
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by eru on Thursday October 05, 2023 @10:33PM (#37786602)
See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dry_county

Btw, in general decisions on drug prohibition / legalisation should probably be taken at the state level or even lower (county or city).

There's no need why there should be a federal law to put the same alcohol regulations on the folks in Utah as on New Hampshire.

That kind of reasoning applies to many other areas as well. Eg minimum wage or letting in foreigners.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by dahfizz on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @07:31PM (#37758976)
Vehicular manslaughter is already illegal, we should make drunk driving legal. Drinking and driving without crashing into anything is victimless.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by heavyset_go on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @07:33PM (#37758988)
The equivalent would be banning all alcohol because sometimes people get drunk and do bad things.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by jojobas on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @08:07PM (#37759258)
You chances of drinking alcohol responsibly for decades are way, way better than your changes on not becoming an unemployable wreck in mere years on meth or heroin.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by bdangubic on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @08:54PM (#37759616)
an amazing sentence which sounds like it is rooted in something vaguely factual while in reality there is nothing factual that can support this claim
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by jojobas on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @05:31AM (#37762820)
There's plenty to support this claim: consumption prevalence and disorder prevalence.

Opiod users are vastly over-represented in all sort of statistics - addiction treatments, overdose deaths etc as compared with alcohol.

6% of alcohol drinkers are diagnosed with alcohol use disorder, the number exceeds 50% for meth users.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912a1.htm

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by master-lincoln on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @07:09AM (#37763473)
> 6% of alcohol drinkers are diagnosed with alcohol use disorder, the number exceeds 50% for meth users.

This seems like numbers you can not compare fairly. I would think if alcohol were illegal, a bigger percentage of users would be diagnosed with alcohol use disorder.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by jojobas on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @07:17AM (#37763545)
Diagnostic criteria are quite agnostic (badum-tss) towards the chemical in question.

You could also argue that people consuming illegal substances are less likely to report for treatment and be diagnosed in the first place.

Why is it so hard to accept that different substances are differently addictive and harmful, per capita? Would you shoehorn chocolate and coffee to the same bucket?

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by master-lincoln on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @07:56AM (#37763868)
I am just careful in this area because previous policies have not been based on scientific evidence, but political agenda (as expanded upon other-where in this thread). So I don't trust my common sense... I accept that different substances have different effects.

Harm is a domain that is very broad and hard to quantify fairly I think. Does Meth cause more harm because more Meth addicts have fallen out of society than say Coke? If so, how can we make sure to differentiate between mere correlations and causal relations?

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by eru on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @09:22PM (#37759779)
That would be hard to get data on, because alcohol is mostly legal and meth and heroin are mostly illegal.

So you have a huge confounder: it seems likely people who are willing to do illegal acts, are more likely to become unemployable.

So if meth was legal, and alcohol was illegal, the situation might be reversed.

(I'm not saying this is true, but to make your statement you'd need to carefully exclude the possibility of this effect.)

Btw, heroin and other concentrated drugs are popular partially because we banned comparatively milder and bulkier alternatives. Eg opium ain't as hard as opium, but it's just as forbidden, and its bigger bulk makes it less profitable to smuggle.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by cwkoss on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @11:55PM (#37760683)
Meth is legal, sometimes.

It's called desoxyn, and can be prescribed for ADHD or weight loss.

Also chirality-flipped meth is available over the counter as a nasal decongestant

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by conradev on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @02:29AM (#37761554)
Over the counter… with an ID. It’s not on shelves precisely because it is so similar to meth
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by bratgpttamer on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @09:31AM (#37764869)
It's not on shelves because it's a precursor chemical to actual meth manufacturing, not because it's a dangerous drug (otherwise it'd be Rx-only, like the other meth-like drugs).

https://www.deadiversion.usdoj.gov/meth/cma2005.htm

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by Paul-Craft on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @06:14PM (#37772545)
Neither ephedrine, pseudoephedrine, or phenylpropanolamine are the reversed-chirality methampetamine. "Regular" methamphetamine is dextromethamphetamine; the other version is levomethamphetamine.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by heavyset_go on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @04:50PM (#37771575)
You don't need an ID for levomethamphetamine.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by bryanrasmussen on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @04:25AM (#37762392)
>Eg opium ain't as hard as opium, probably need an edit here. Is it opium isn't as hard as heroin?

all the shows I've ever seen on it suggests it is pretty life destroying though.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by thghtihadanacct on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @09:39AM (#37765005)
Opium literally gets scraped off of poppies. Anyone can actually obtain it with some patience and know how. It would take an enormous individual effort to collect enough to use, let alone hurt oneself or sell any.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by Paul-Craft on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @06:19PM (#37772586)
Yet, ridiculously, sometimes people who have simply eaten a lot of poppy seed bagels or something end up getting tagged as heroin users, because the metabolites are so similar. Never mind that the quantity of poppy seeds you'd have to ingest in order to feel even a little bit of opiate effect is probably more than a human can physically consume. It gets picked up and flagged because the tests are that sensitive.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by Eisenstein on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @09:23PM (#37759780)
Yet we give amphetamines and opiates to people under prescription en masse without such a thing happening with more prevalence than alcohol.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by Paul-Craft on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @06:22PM (#37772616)
Yep, and I tell you what: on the rare occasions when I have accidentally doubled my dose of Adderall, I do not like the way it makes me feel one bit. An actual addict would probably be taking 10x or more of my prescribed dose to get their high. I wouldn't be able to enjoy the high because I'd feel like I was literally dying.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by jimbob45 on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @09:23PM (#37759788)
We do ban alcohol because of that though. Maybe not a total ban but we regulate the hell out of it. You can’t even drink until 21 and then you can only drink in certain areas and you’re cut off once you show signs of intoxication.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by komali2 on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @11:31PM (#37760537)
Ok, so we should regulate the hell out of meth, heroin, ecstasy, etc. It doesn't make sense to federally ban a drug like LSD considering how little harm it causes compared to the drug alcohol.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by chii on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @12:51AM (#37760974)
> how little harm it causes compared to the drug alcohol.

but what harm per dose? May be the harm is high, but there's so few users that nothing shows up in aggregate.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by lynx23 on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @03:05AM (#37761791)
It is far easier to use psychedelics irresponsible then it is with alcohol. Most people crash at some point when drunk, but usually do not undress and walk out onto a busy street... The tendency of psychedelics to unearth mental health problems is IMO too much of an issue given how many people have untreated issues these days.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by sfn42 on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @07:58AM (#37763882)
I've taken most common drugs. LSD, MDMA, shrooms, cocaine, amphetamines, list goes on.

None of them, except maybe some prescription pills like benzos, take control away from me the way alcohol does.

None of them have had me wake up in some random place with no idea how I got there. None of them have made me do things I don't remember, none of them have made me do and say things I regret.

Alcohol has caused all of that and more. The only reason I still drink alcohol is because it's the only socially acceptable drug. I'd much rather do coke or molly, to me those feel significantly safer than alcohol. And they're better, and they don't ruin the next day to the same degree alcohol does, at least not in my experience.

And yes, alcohol absolutely can make people undress and walk out into a busy street. It can also make people aggressive. One time my father came home shitfaced, furious at me for no apparent reason, punched a hole in my bedroom window, came into my room and started screaming at me while bleeding everywhere from punching the glass, then grabbed me by the neck and started choking. I can't remember how it played put after that but I ended up spending the night at my aunt's place. The next day he was in shambles, he would never do anything like that sober. And for the next few years until I moved out, I was anxious every time he went out.

I still do illegal drugs. Not very frequently, I'm a regular guy who works a decent job, is dependable etc. I'm not going to work high or anything like that. Just like most people don't get drunk at work. I know many people with similar lifestyles. I'd bet the majority of illegal drug users are just like me, they have their fun in a responsible way and live normal lives. Just like with alcohol the really messed up addicts are the exception, not the norm.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by shmel on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @07:58AM (#37763886)
It is a statistical bias. The vast majority of psychedelics users don't undress and walk around naked. But you often don't notice them precisely because psychs are illegal and people don't advertise their use. It is however widely accepted to drink in public. Everybody who's been in a busy downtown on Saturday night would agree that alcohol definitely brings up violence in some people. And yet it is typically brushed off because most people manage to drink responsibly. Unless you are in the psychedelic community, you just don't know what the majority of psychedelic users are like.

Go to a psytrance festival and see for yourself. I've been to many and I haven't seen people running around naked. If anything, I feel safer there than on many large events where people drink.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by lynx23 on Thursday October 05, 2023 @04:08AM (#37776026)
I am inclined to not believe that due to my anecdotal evidence. I lost a dear friend at the age of 17 due to him trying the McKenna mushroom dose, and ending up jumping out of the window on the 7th floor. I life in a country where alcohol use is not unheard of, but after roughly 40 years living here, I still dont know anyone how died from alcohol intoxication in a similar way. Alcohol casualties are usually a long-term effect.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by komali2 on Thursday October 05, 2023 @11:26AM (#37779841)
Well, trading stories, I've lost two close friends to drunk driving accidents and one because he slipped into an icy river when drunk.

I'm really sorry about your loss. Situations like that are awful. I think it's really important for people interested in psychedelics to try them in a safe environment with people who have experience with the given drug and are willing to stay sober and keep an eye out. Every time I've encountered psychedelics (hundreds of occasions) it's been in situations like this, and they prevent tragedies.

Those of us who are arguing for legalization are basically arguing for society to create these kinds of safety nets writ large. Rather than counting on having a wookie friend nearby you can straight up call up 411 or something before doing a drug. I know it sounds ridiculous but if people are going to do these things anyway... I mean we're happy to have society teach eachother how to have sex safely, why not drugs? And that includes alcohol.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by itishappy on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @02:42PM (#37769710)
I've experimented with both psychedelics and alcohol (never together). It was alcohol that eventually caused a psychotic break. Scary stuff.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by jahsome on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @12:08AM (#37760756)
Moreover, dry counties exist.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by heavyset_go on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @03:02AM (#37761780)
You can still drink in dry counties and possession of alcohol is not illegal. Lack of liquor licenses is not the same thing has the criminalization of other substances.

The equivalent to that are towns that forbid the sale of marijuana in states that legalized it. It's still legal to use and possess.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by jahsome on Monday October 09, 2023 @05:10PM (#37825519)
Great point thank you for making the distinction.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by eru on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @09:19PM (#37759762)
You are going for a reduction to the absurd here, but what you are saying isn't actually that far off what is practical.

In general, many behaviours influence the chance of bad things happening. Eg getting behind the wheels of a car in the first place increases the chance of vehicular manslaughter (compared to walking).

Society can punish the probabilistically bad behaviour, or the bad outcome or any combination of the two (including none).

If the punishment is purely financial, and enforcement is certain and actors have deep pockets, it doesn't really matter which combination you pick.

You can emulate the deep pockets by requiring people to get insurance. Even if the law only polices the bad outcomes, a rational insurance company might want to police its customers behaviour. (Eg your health insurance gives you a discount, if you show them evidence of healthy habits. That's equivalent to charging people who fail to provide that evidence more, but the discount is more PR friendly.)

Both driving at all and drunk driving increase the chance of a person committing vehicular manslaughter. Societies largely allow driving, but ban drunk driving.

Drunk driving is dangerous, mainly because drunkards have slower reaction times and are more prone to taking risks. The more alcohol you have in your blood, the harsher the fines and punishment. But we typically don't check people's sober reaction times and risk appetite, and charge them more for driving sober.

It's all about trade-offs.

In the case of vehicular accidents, most people don't necessarily have deep pockets, and the damage of injuring or killing people can't be undone by paying money. However we eg still let old people drive, and only do something about them when they actually get involved in an accident.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by NovemberWhiskey on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @11:12PM (#37760428)
The essential element of vehicular manslaughter that differentiates it from "a crash in which someone dies" is the mental state of the driver - specifically, that they're acting in a reckless or negligent manner.

This is fundamentally nothing to do with economic trade-offs: it's about generally disincentivizing risk-taking when in command of a multi-ton vehicle moving at speed.

We can know this because even if a "bad" driver is objectively more risky than a professional race-car driver who is 20yo, but has drunk a beer; it's the latter that's committing a crime when they drive.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by Retric on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @11:21PM (#37760479)
That argument breaks down when you look at how these laws were actually created and changed over time.

People didn’t pick 0.08 BAC and then lower it because they found 0.08 BAC wasn’t low enough, instead the same organizations kept pushing for ever lower limits so they keep dropping independent of any actual impact.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by NovemberWhiskey on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @11:41PM (#37760596)
In fact, that reinforces my argument: it's not about relative risk, it's about the definition of what's considered negligent varying over time based on changing attitudes.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by Retric on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @04:56AM (#37762624)
Zero tolerance laws have nothing to do with impairment. 0.001 BAC doesn’t have a detectable influence on behavior but 7 states set have zero tolerance at literally 0.000. The definition of negligence isn’t changed by these groups, they are going to arbitrarily increase penalties over time because that’s why they exist.

Nobody advocates for drunk drivers as a group so there’s no equilibrium reached, just ever harsher penalties and lower limits. I don’t drink, but it’s obvious that using literally 0 as your threshold will pointlessly waste money going after edge cases unrelated to drinking.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by hwillis on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @06:42PM (#37758584)
Obviously separate problems, like alcohol and drunk driving. People use prescription meth (desoxyn) and opioids responsibly, just like alcohol. Negative externalities are a separate choice.

Using meth is as victimless as using alcohol, and I think it's pretty silly to say there's a victim when I have a beer at home after work.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by gruez on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @07:34PM (#37758993)
>Using meth is as victimless as using alcohol

Just because it's legal, doesn't mean there's no victim.

>and I think it's pretty silly to say there's a victim when I have a beer at home after work.

This is getting into hair splitting territory. Meth has therapeutic value. It's available as a prescription drug under the name Desoxyn, and it's indicated for treating ADHD and obesity. It's possible for someone to get illegal meth and use it to self-medicate their ADHD responsibly, but that's not the typical use case. The typical use case is someone taking far above the therapeutic amount, getting tweaked out, and engaging in harmful behaviors that hurts them and their community. Sure, you could argue that using the drug itself isn't harmful because theoretically you could be using it responsibly, but it quickly leads to a slippery slope. Is driving drunk victimless, because if you don't crash nobody is harmed? Is violating health codes victim less as long as nobody gets sick?

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by Eisenstein on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @05:58AM (#37762979)
It isn't the typical use case because it is illegal. Going through the trouble of buying meth to help your self-diagnosed ADHD is not generally what people choose to do if they have access to a doctor who will prescribe them Adderall instead.

We have no idea how many people would be using it responsibly in other situations but the current one so your examples are flawed.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by whats_a_quasar on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @07:00PM (#37758739)
Some people use meth and opioids responsibly, but they very much are not the same as alcohol. Alcohol is a much safer recreational drug. Some people become alcoholics, but a higher percentage of people who try opioids get addicted, and addiction happens after fewer exposures.

The whole reason addiction is a problem is that it alter decision making, once someone is addicted. So you incur much of the moral responsibility the first time you decide to take the drug for fun.

And also, opioids are a curious example for responsible drug use, given how many people who used prescribed painkillers became addicted to them.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by hutzlibu on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @02:57AM (#37761746)
"The whole reason addiction is a problem is that it alter decision making, once someone is addicted."

This is true, but there are many things people can become addicted to and only some of them are illegal drugs.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by whats_a_quasar on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @06:51PM (#37758667)
You're getting downvoted for this, but you're right. I used to believe that recreational use of hard drugs was victimless, but I don't anymore. If you take opiates, meth, or crack-cocaine, there is some probability that you will become addicted, and once addicted, there is some probability that you will impose a cost on your community.

Hard drugs are really, really bad for you, and really bad for society. It really is the drug that is the problem - some substances simply cannot be used safely for recreation. If you choose to take them, you're rolling the dice on where you'll end up, and that makes it a crime with society as the victim.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by OkayPhysicist on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @07:36PM (#37759005)
Addiction potential is heavily tied to one's circumstances. The more desperate the circumstances, the greater the abuse potential. For example, you specifically listed crack as opposed to run of the mill powder cocaine. The only difference between them from an abuse potential perspective is the purchasing power of the user. Likewise, the raver who's popping some mystery mix of amphetamine, methamphetamine, and MDMA at a party once a month is far less likely to succumb to addiction than poor sap living in Redding where the only thing available for entertainment is smoking meth. Opiates are self-selecting in this regard: they're not that pleasant relative to other drugs, except for their ability to make you content, which only really appeals to the desperate.

If we follow your "it's illegal because there's a probability" theory of law enforcement, then it should only be illegal to do drugs while poor, which is pretty much where the law stands today without the deceptive veneer of equality. Now, that should sound like an absurd legal take, because it is. The reasonable response is that it's poverty that's the problem, and it's not a problem we solve by throwing all the poor people in jail.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by chiefalchemist on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @08:16PM (#37759346)
The irony? The more impoverished people we incarcerate, the more the social fabric is stretched and torn. That is, the more poverty persists.

The Poverty Industrial Complex (i.e., law enforcement, gov agencies, non-profits) is quite content with a persistence of the status quo.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by nicoburns on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @08:05PM (#37759246)
I think we’d do better at solving problems with these drugs if treated the user as the primary victim as opposed to the perpetrator of the crime.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by hutzlibu on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @02:54AM (#37761729)
"some substances simply cannot be used safely for recreation."

Do you have hard data on this? Because otherwise you are creating lots of victims with the war on drugs, who would otherwise just use drugs recreational without harming anyone.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by bratgpttamer on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @09:38AM (#37764992)
In the medical world, this is typically quantified by the Therapeutic Index[1], which is basically how much margin there is between an effective (therapeutic) dose and a lethal dose. (Fentanyl and heroin have notoriously thin margins, while cannabis is famously wide.)

It's a big consideration in what's OTC vs Rx, and what guardrails (inpatient only, regular blood draws, etc) are needed.

There was a good "magic quadrant"-style plot of this against addictive potential, but I can't seem to find it just yet. (This [2] is close.)

It doesn't consider externalities, so it's not great for the "do drugs and you'll end up unemployed, and if you're unemployed you'll end up homeless, and homeless people are a cost on the community" class of arguments.

  [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Therapeutic_index

  [2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Rational_scale_to_assess_the_harm_of_drugs_%28mean_physical_harm_and_mean_dependence%29.svg
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by makeitdouble on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @07:23PM (#37758905)
> negative externalitiy imposed on the community from your unstable behavior.

It's the same externality as being in a depression or bipolar for instance. I see the moral argument where intent is taken into consideration, but more on the practical level, the community as a whole should have mechanism to deal with unstable members.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by gruez on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @07:38PM (#37759023)
>but more on the practical level, the community as a whole should have mechanism to deal with unstable members.

Right but what does it mean in terms of legality? We have mechanisms to deal with store theft (eg. anti-theft systems, insurance), does that mean it's okay to steal stuff?

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by makeitdouble on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @11:04PM (#37760380)
Yes, we need to draw the line somewhere.

Personally I draw the line at "are you directly acting on someone else or someone else's property ?".

In this case, and in the case of simple substance use, I'd say no, it doesn't cross that line, and there's a decent argument for depenalizing it.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by NovemberWhiskey on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @11:26PM (#37760511)
Society criminalizes "victimless" behavior all the time for really good reasons.

Like: if I try and kill my neighbor, but my rifle jams as I shoot, there's no victim, right? Or: if my friends and I get together to plan the burning of a synagogue, there's no victim. Or: if I offer to pay you to kill that pesky neighbour, there's no victim (until you go through with it). Or: if I offer to buy goods off you that have you stole, what I am doing has no victim (the goods were already stolen).

The notion that "victimless" crime is somehow in a category of crimes that are lesser or "not proper" crimes is unjustified.

We have above: attempted murder, conspiracy to commit arson, soliciting a murder, receipt of stolen goods - most of which I think people would regard as serious crimes.

Societies criminalize things that are considered "bad", victim or no - and that reflects the contemporary moral viewpoint of the society. Sodomy (of the consensual variety) was a crime many places, and now it generally isn't.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by saagarjha on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @02:00AM (#37761359)
That’s not how people typically define “victimless crime”. Those would fall under “intent to commit crimes that very much have a victim”.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by NovemberWhiskey on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @09:34AM (#37764938)
Intending to commit a crime is not a crime, though. And accessory-after-the-fact crimes (like receiving stolen goods or assisting an escape) don't match that pattern either.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by saagarjha on Thursday October 05, 2023 @05:00AM (#37776360)
Yes, it is. If you willfully intend to commit a crime, you can be charged with a number or inchoate offenses, even if you don’t actually go through with it.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by yetanotherloss on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @02:07AM (#37761414)
This is a silly strawman and victimless crime has never been used in honest discourse to describe a perpetrator too incompetent to cause harm.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by NovemberWhiskey on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @09:29AM (#37764844)
It's not a straw man - the point is that society defines crimes by "bad acts" (usually in combination with "bad states of mind") that should be discouraged and penalized, even if there's no actual overt harm done to people or property.

The notion of a victimless crime is therefore ill-formed: the purpose of the criminal justice system isn't just to penalize people who create victims - it's created to apply penalties to specific acts/mental states that have been deemed morally culpable.

When people talk of "victimless crimes", they don't actually mean crimes that lack victims - they just mean those sorts of criminal acts that they don't really think are actually morally culpable.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by gambiting on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @03:19AM (#37761901)
>>if I try and kill my neighbor, but my rifle jams as I shoot, there's no victim, right?

Unless he was completely unaware that you tried to do so, of course there's a victim - anyone would be severely traumatized from an attempt on their life, even if it was ultimately unsuccessful.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by em500 on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @04:46AM (#37762551)
So if she was in fact completely unaware that you tried to do so, would that be a victimless crime?
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by gambiting on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @05:07AM (#37762690)
In that case it's no different to just thinking about doing it.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by Icko on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @06:10AM (#37763045)
No, it would still be a crime. He wouldn't know to pursue it, but it is very much a crime.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by Icko on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @06:08AM (#37763036)
None of those are victimless crimes. If you attempt to shoot someone and your rifle jams, you still exposed him to the risk of dying. This is a ridiculous strawman.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by NovemberWhiskey on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @09:47AM (#37765123)
If you don't like that one - how about this: the law in the U.S. criminalizes attempts to do things that are factually impossible. So if you try to poison someone with (what you believe to be) "arsenic" but it turns out to be the regular sugar they normally take in their coffee, you can be convicted of attempted murder in most states.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by HPsquared on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @06:26AM (#37763153)
Kinda like a less severe version of drink driving. "A behaviour that increases risk for others in the community".
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by jliptzin on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @08:06AM (#37763960)
If we’re concerned about negative externalities, alcohol would be the first thing to be banned.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by kwhitefoot on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @09:07AM (#37764513)
Possibly, but we are discussing things currently designated as crimes.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by southernplaces7 on Thursday October 05, 2023 @10:32AM (#37779102)
First of all, you need to separate an activity's direct, real externalities from those created by draconian, stupid laws that make consuming and buying those drugs into something much harsher and costly than it need be.

Secondly, everything we do has externalities in some variably extrapolated way and that by itself is a bad, hazy-logic reason to blanket ban it. Instead, you create reasonable checks and try to ascertain motives (as we do for so many other potentially dangerous activities without banning them). If one's motive is to get high in their own private context but they can't do so without becoming a burden on the criminal justice system (because their otherwise personal activity suddenly became a public cost and the target of some bullshit moral crusade), then maybe your anti-drug laws are the bigger problem, not that individual's personal choices and their artificially constructed effects on "the community".

Yes, I know that some people high on meth, cocaine, PCP, etc can become mentally unstable and commit violent acts or crimes, but people in all kinds of reasonably, widely legal situations can also do the exact same things without whole categories of consumption and behavior and activity being banned in a heavy handed push for social purity.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by coryrc on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @08:51PM (#37759592)
If it's a rational crime, punishing it would lower the incidence rate?
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by eru on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @09:05PM (#37759677)
Depends on people's time horizon / discounting rate?
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by TaylorAlexander on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @10:50PM (#37760293)
There is a humanity aspect to things. Sure maybe if you make the crime 10 years in prison the infraction rates will go way down, but also you are using the state to enact very harsh sentences on vulnerable people, which is inhumane, and moreover you are spending loads of money locking people up to solve a crime which arguably is harmless. You could as an alternative build supportive/subsidized housing so that the people sleeping on benches can get a real bed, and provide medical and mental health services and job training. In this case instead of spending all your money on buildings to house these people which take away their rights (prisons) you spend the money on supportive services which help the people get on their feet.

You are still spending money, but one solves the root problem and the other solves only one specific crime.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by gitgud on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @06:21PM (#37758432)
“use illegal substances” is a victimless crime sometimes, other times it creates victims out of friends, family and the general public…
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by hwillis on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @06:43PM (#37758594)
same as legal substances like alcohol.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by makeitdouble on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @07:29PM (#37758959)
If we're pushing on how an individual's behavior affects their family and friend, we should expand to all the other situations it happens.

For instance teens dieting to look thin to the point of getting eating disorders have an effect on their parents every day life, friends (who are also at risk of getting ropped in and follow the trend too), and the general public including the medical system. How much do you want to blame anorexic teens for that ?

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by eru on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @09:24PM (#37759796)
Same for people getting fat. Or people getting into accidents.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by throwaway837367 on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @06:10PM (#37758293)
Victimless and rational.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by ric2b on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @07:45PM (#37759066)
Are crimes of opportunity rational crimes?

What about rage/emotional violence? Is it a deranged crime?

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by jahsome on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @12:06AM (#37760735)
Hey bud, go easy. I've got a couple different anus-type diagnoses myself, and commit very few crimes.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by jojobas on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @07:11PM (#37758825)
Yeah, let's change our laws so that Tom, Dick and Harry can pimp, deal drugs around schools, run underground gambling dives and protection rackets. Genius!

Plenty of consensual acts are detrimental to the society.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by deadbeeves on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @01:55AM (#37761331)
1. What's wrong with pimping per se? Fundamentally, a pimp is an just an intermediary that finds clients for people who sell a service. How is it different from an agency? Yes, pimping can involve violence, but the reason why is that the victim is unlikely to report the violence, as it would require them to incriminate themselves.

2. Tobacco and alcohol are legal, yet you don't see people selling to kids. It happens from time to time to teenagers, but not to young children. The reason why is precisely that children don't have the mental faculties to understand the full scope of their decisions and therefore can't give informed consent.

3. If gambling is legal there's no need for it to be underground, it can just be out in the open. Where are you more likely to get scammed, in some clandestine gambling den, or in a licit casino?

4. A protection racket is clearly not consensual. "Give me money or I'll damage your property" doesn't require consent of the victim.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by yterdy on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @08:49PM (#37759585)
You've misunderstood the nature of desperation. People doing those things are absolutely desperate - for a dopamine hit, for love or intimacy or community, for something to do with their time that is meaningful (losing all your money is certainly meaningful).

No one who has those things - and recognizes it - settles for bottom-barrel surrogates like the ones you've listed. Someone who is starved for them absolutely will.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by Broken_Hippo on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @06:16AM (#37763090)
No more desperate than the person running to get the runner's high or volunteering in a soup kitchen because they get a kick out of it or someone seeing a scary movie because they enjoy the feeling of safe fear.

Drugs are fun. That's the reason a lot of folks do them. It doesn't mean you are desperate in ways that other people aren't. You are just using your time differently.

It isn't even that your comment isn't true some of the time. It does read like DARE propaganda.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by yterdy on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @10:18AM (#37765575)
I disagree. If running or volunteering at a soup kitchen were viewed by the would-be criminal as options for fulfilling their needs, they wouldn't be. There is something - generally psychological or social - pushing them to self-destructive solutions rather than pro-social ones. As for reads, your flippancy indicates some combination of ignorance and apathy. I won't waste any more time trying to make you understand, because I'm unconvinced of your capability to do so.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by lionkor on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @12:31AM (#37760877)
I would be interested to see how "crime" rates are in, say, the Netherlands, considering normal human stuff like prostitution and weed are legal.
Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by secretsatan on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @03:08AM (#37761819)
I we change the laws, how can we selectively police?

If the police wanted a big bust on coke use, they could just raid a financial district.

Re:Predictive Policing Software Is Pretty Terrible at Predic... by commandlinefan on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @11:57AM (#37767072)
> most people are commiting crimes because... they want to

Or because almost everything is a crime in some way.