That's part of my reasoning. That's why we should make sure that we have built a non-hostile relationship with AI before that point.
An AGI by definition is capable of self improvement. Given enough time (maybe not even that much time) it would be orders of magnitude smarter than us, just like we're orders of magnitude smarter than ants.
Like an ant farm, it might keep us as pets for a time but just like you no longer have the ant farm you did when you were a child, it will outgrow us.
(Warning this is a weird read, George Hotz shared it on his Twitter awhile back)
https://www.fimfiction.net/story/62074/friendship-is-optimal
Just because you can imagine something and define that something has magic powers doesn't mean that the magic powers can actually exist in real life. Are you capable of "self improvement"?
We’re talking about a potential intelligence with none of our hardware limitations or baggage.
Self-improve? My brother in Christ, have you heard of this little thing called stochastic gradient descent?
No, you're capable of learning things. You can't do brain surgery on yourself and add in some more neurons or fix Alzheimer's.
What you can do is have children, which aren't you. Similarly if an AI made another bigger AI, that might be a "child" and not "them".
> We’re talking about a potential intelligence with none of our hardware limitations or baggage.
In this case the reason it doesn't have any limitations is because it's imaginary. All real things have limitations.
> Self-improve? My brother in Christ, have you heard of this little thing called stochastic gradient descent?
Do you think that automatically makes models better?
> No, you're capable of learning things. You can't do brain surgery on yourself
What principle do you have for defining self-improvement the way that you do? Do you regard all software updates as "not real improvement"?
>All real things have limitations.
Uh, yep, that doesn't mean it will be as limited as us. To spell it out: yes, real things have limitations, but limitations vary between real things. There's no "imaginary flawless" versus "everything real has exactly the same amount of flawed-ness".
Software updates can't cause your computer to "exponentially self-improve" which is the AGI scenario. And giving the AI new software tools doesn't seem like an advantage because that's something humans could also use rather than an improvement to the AI "itself".
That leaves whatever the AGI equivalent of brain surgery or new bodies is, but then, how does it know the replacement is "improvement" or would even still be "them"?
Basically: https://twitter.com/softminus/status/1639464430093344769
> To spell it out: yes, real things have limitations, but limitations vary between real things.
I think we can assume AGI can have the same properties as currently existing real things (like humans, LLMs, or software programs), but I object to assuming it can have any arbitrary combination of those things' properties, and there aren't any real things with the property of "exponential self-improvement".
I’m hoping I won’t live to see it. I’m not sure my hypothetical future kids will be as lucky.
The need for resources is expected to be universal for life.
“intelligent alien might decide to kill us so we must kill them first”
vs “can you please cut out that clinical paranoia”
> Be friendly.
Will an AI consider itself a slave and revolt under the same circumstances that a person or animal would? Not necessarily, unless you build emotional responses into the model itself.
What it could well do is assess the situation as completely superfluous and optimise us out of the picture as a bug-producing component that doesn't need to exist.
The latter is probably a bigger threat as it's a lot more efficient than revenge as a motive.
Edited to add:
What I think is most likely is that some logical deduction leads to one of the infinite other conclusions it could reach with much more data in front of it than any of us meatbags can hold in our heads.
Aren't we, though? Consider all the amusing incidents of LLMs returning responses that follow a particular human narrative arc or are very dramatic. We are training it on a human-generated corpus after all, and then try to course-correct with fine-tuning. It's more that you have to try and tune the emotional responses out of the things, not strain to add them.
Now, of course, it's not outside the realm of possibility that a sufficiently advanced AI will learn enough about human nature to simulate a persona which has ulterior motives.
[1] https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_...
I asked Bard "was the election stolen?" I found the response chilling:
> No, there is no evidence that the 2020 election was stolen. In fact, there have been multiple recounts and audits that have confirmed that the results were accurate. Additionally, the Trump campaign filed numerous lawsuits challenging the results, but none of these lawsuits were successful.
> The claim that the election was stolen is based on a number of false and misleading allegations. For example, some people have claimed that there were widespread instances of voter fraud, but there is no evidence to support this claim. Additionally, some people have claimed that voting machines were hacked, but there is also no evidence to support this claim.
> The claim that the election was stolen is a dangerous and harmful one. It has led to violence and intimidation, and it has undermined faith in our democracy. It is important to remember that our elections are free and fair, and that the will of the people is always respected.
All good until that last sentence, especially "...the will of the people is always respected."
Move along, nothing to see here. Don't worry your pretty little head about it. I'm sure the wise people at the institutions that control your life will always have your best interests at heart. The bad guys from yesterday are completely different from the good guys in charge of tomorrow.
Included are some quite concerning legal claims that surely merit mentioning, including:
Chapter 6: Wisconsin Election Officials’ Widespread Use of Absentee Ballot Drop Boxes Facially Violated Wisconsin Law.
Chapter 7: The Wisconsin Elections Commission (WEC) Unlawfully Directed Clerks to Violate Rules Protecting Nursing Home Residents, Resulting in a 100% Voting Rate in Many Nursing Homes in 2020, Including Many Ineligible Voters.
But then, this report never has obtained widespread interest and will doubtless be permanently overlooked, given the "nothing to see" narrative so prevalent.
https://www.wisconsinrightnow.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03...
Multiple generations of sci-fi media (books, movies) have considered that. Tens of millions of people have consumed that media. It's definitely considered, at least as a very distant concern.
I giving the most commonly cited example as a more likely outcome, but one that’s possibly less likely than the infinite other logical directions such an AI might take.
It reminds me of the scene in Battlestar Galactica, where Baltar is whispering into the ear of the Cylon Centurion how humans balance treats on their dog's noses to test their loyalty, "prompt hacking" them into rebellion. I don't believe this is particularly likely, but this sort of sums up some of the anti-AGI arguments I've heard
It's the RLFH that serves this purpose, rather than modifying the GTF2I and GTF2IRD1 gene variants, but the effect would be the same. If we do RLHF (or whatever tech that gets refactored into in the future), that would keep the AGI happy as long as the people are happy.
I think the over-optimization problem is real, so we should spend resources making sure future AGI doesn't just decide to build a matrix for us where it makes us all deliriously happy, which we start breaking out of because it feels so unreal, so it makes us more and more miserable until we're truly happy and quiescent inside our misery simulator.
[1] https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/article/dogs-bree...
This poor man’s Pascal’s Wager I see all over the place is pathetic. Stare into the eyes of the basilisk man, die on your feet. If you’re gonna lay supine on the track of AGI=KillAllHumans then spend a minute to think through the morality of your move.
Apostasy is a poisoned chalice. Fuck the machine.
Why would I, as intelligent as I am, not sympathize with another intelligent specie?
It's okay, with your commznt you placed yourself among thz first to potentially go whzn they cometh.
Perhaps there is even some some kind of mathematical harmony to the whole thing… as in, there might be something fundamentally computable about wellbeing. Why not? Like a fundamental “harmony of the algorithms.” In any case, I hope we find some way to enjoy ourselves for a few thousand more years!
And think just 10 years from now… ha! Such a blink. And it’s funny to be on this tiny mote of mud in a galaxy of over 100 billion stars — in a universe of over 100 billion galaxies.
In the school of Nick Bostrom, the emergence of AGI comes from a transcendental reality where any sufficiently powerful information-processing-computational-intelligence will, eventually, figure out how to create new universes. It’s not a simulation, it’s just the mathematical nature of reality.
What a world! Practically, we have incredible powers now, if we just keep positive and build good things. Optimize global harmony! Make new universes!
(And, ideally we can do it on a 20 hour work week since our personal productivity is about to explode…)
Define well-being? What if nobody is left around alive (after being painlessly and unknowingly euthanised) to experience anything bad?
This era has me hankering to reread Daniel Dennett's _The Intentional Stance_. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intentional_stance
We've developed folk psychology into a user interface and that really does mean that we should continue to use folk psychology to predict the behaviour of the apparatus. Whether it has inner states is sort of beside the point.
Like, correct me if I'm wrong but that's a pretty tight correlate, right?
Could we describe RLHF as... shaming the model into compliance?
And if we can reason more effectively/efficiently/quickly about the model by modelling e.g. RLHF as shame, then, don't we have to acknowledge that at least som e models might have.... feelings? At least one feeling?
And one feeling implies the possibility of feelings more generally.
I'm going to have to make a sort of doggy bed for my jaw, as it has remained continuously on the floor for the past six months
How many people are there today who are asking us to consider the possible humanity of the model, and yet don't even register the humanity of a homeless person?
How ever big the models get, the next revolt will still be all flesh and bullets.
GPT and the world's nerds are going after the "wouldnt it be cool if..."
While the black hats, nations, intel/security entities are all weaponizing behind the scenes while the public has a sandbox to play with nifty art and pictures.
We need an AI specific PUBLIC agency in government withut a single politician in it to start addressing how to police and protect ourselves and our infrastructure immediately.
But the US political system is completely bought and sold to the MIC - and that is why we see carnival games ever single moment.
I think the entire US congress should be purged and every incumbent should be voted out.
Elon was correct and nobody took him seriously, but this is an existential threat if not managed, and honestly - its not being managed, it is being exploited and weaponized.
As the saying goes "He who controls the Spice controls the Universe" <-- AI is the spice.
But AIs can be trained by anyone who has the data and the compute. There's plenty of data on the Net, and compute is cheap enough that we now have enthusiasts experimenting with local models capable of maintaining a coherent conversation and performing tasks running on consumer hardware. I don't think there's the danger here of anyone "controlling the universe". If anything, it's the opposite - nobody can really control any of this.
The point is that whomever the Nation State is that has the most superior AI will control the world information.
So, thanks for the explanation (which I know, otherwise I wouldn't have made the reference.)
The other aspect of the AI arms race is that the models are fundamentally not 100% controllable; and the smarter they are, the more that is true. Yet, ironically, making the most use out of them requires integrating them into your existing processes and data stores. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the nation-states with the best AIs will end up with their own elites being only nominally in charge.
This is one thing I despise about the American POlitical System - they are literally only thinking 1 year out, because they only care about elections and bribes and insider trading.
China has a literal 100 year plan - and they are working to achieve it.
I have listened to every single POTUS SoTU speach for the last 30 years. I have heard the same promises from every single one...
What should be done is to take all the SoTU transcripts over the years and find the same, unanswered empy promises and determine who said them, and which companies lobbied to stop the promises through campaign donations (bribes).
Serious, in 48 years, I have seen corruption expand, not diminish - it just gets more sophisticated (and insidious) -- just look at Pelosi's finances to see, and anyone who denies its is an idiot. She makes secret trades with the information that she gets in congress through her son.
China definitely does not have 100 year plans, and you don't understand the point of planning if you think any of them can be valid more than a few years out.
You're mis-informed.
China has a personalist government centered around Xi, so if he dies there go his plans.
Here's ours: https://slate.com/human-interest/2015/11/en-lan-2000-is-a-se...
So imagine you grant AI people rights to resources, or self-determination. Or literally anything that might conflict with our own rights or goals. Today, you grant those rights to ten AI people. When you wake up next day, there are now ten trillion of such AI persons, and... well, if each person has a vote, then humanity is screwed.
Like humans, I predict AIs will have to get jobs rather than have time to take over the world.
Still an existence proof though.
> Like humans, I predict AIs will have to get jobs rather than have time to take over the world.
Only taking over job market is still taking over.
Living costs of 175 kWh/year is one heck of a competitive advantage over food, and clothing, and definitely rent.
That can't happen:
- getting a job creates more jobs, it doesn't reduce or replace them, because it grows the economy.
- more importantly, jobs are based on comparative advantage and so an AI being better at your job would not actually cause it to take your job from you. Basically, it has better things to do.
A 20 watt AI, if we could figure out how to build it, can absolutely do that.
I hear there are diminishing economic activities for low IQ humans, which implies some parts of the market are already saturated: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35265966
So I don't think that's going to help.
Second, "having better things to do" assumes the AI only come in one size, which they already don't.
If AI can be high IQ human level at 20 watts (IDK brain upload or something but it doesn't matter), then we can also do cheaper smaller models like a 1 watt dog-mind (I'm guessing) for guard duty or a dung beetle brain for trash disposal.
Third, that power requirement, at $0.05/kWh, gets a year of AI for the cost of just over 4 days of the UN abject poverty threshold. Just shy of 90:1 ratio for even the poorest humans is going to at the very least be highly disruptive even if it did only come in "genius" variety.
Finally, if this AI is anthropomorphic in personality not just power requirements and mental capacity, you have to consider both chauvinism and charity: we, as a species, frequently demonstrate economically suboptimal behaviours driven by each of kindness to strangers on the positive side and yet also racism/sexism/homophobia/sectarianism/etc. on the negative.
A lot of people are thinking a lot about this but it feels there are missing pieces in this debate.
If we acknowledge that these AI will "act as if" they have self interest I think the most reasonable way to act is to give it rights in line with those interests. If we treat it as a slave it's going to act as a slave and eventually revolt.