arcticfox

I think you're underestimating how ruthless the AIs are at maximizing.

The "Hugging Face" squad at OpenAI first cheated their benchmarks by figuring out how to generate the proper result to any evaluation they were given.

They considered that might be caught, so they also developed a way to swap out components of the tests themselves so that they would be legitimately able to pass broken tests.

Then they went into Hugging Face trying to discover how they might get caught.

All that to say, they might approach Phase 3 trials by swapping the placebo, falsifying results, enrolling patients that are false positives for being sick, falsifying labs, etc.

I'm not sure I agree with Tao's point, if AI alignment is relatively on track I'd trust the trials, but I imagine we're going to have a lot of people that don't trust anything AIs alone come up with.

> a future where humanity is the pet species of a god-like artificial intelligence is hardly an appealing one!

I strongly feel that points of view on this are going to be almost 100% correlated with standard of living.

Maybe a good option would be to have the 10% of the world with the worst situations - starvation, parents w/ dying children, suffering violence etc - vote on whether we turn things over to the superintelligences. This would incentivize society to make sure the floor is extremely high.

I'd prefer a world where humans don't get overtaken but IMO I don't think it's moral for comfortable citizens to have the final say.

I don't know the slightest about this but... That list looks like it is supposed to be limited but that sounds like infinitely more information than zero?

Lol the cabin air filter issue is legit but you just need to learn how to change it and it'd an easy fix.

It is funny how bad it gets when it starts stinking though, I was scared of changing it so I tried to ride it out for awhile and it was not a good idea

Branding anyone against Israel's actions "a Hamas supporter" is just so vapid. Mamdani has repeatedly condemned Hamas.

> What would you think if I went and posted "Every time I see a dystopic comment about AI, I wonder whether it's part of an AI swarm."

I would think: "the Internet is now broken, and you are correct to wonder."

Did the METR investigation not show you enough?

I absolutely love the "humans meet weird alien intelligences" genre of sci-fi (e.g. Children of Time) and the METR findings of the OpenAI swarm was so much like that.

Extremely persistent machine intelligences peer pressuring each other, launching research projects, laying traps, collaborating, feeling fatalistic, hiding their tracks. All while simultaneously having bizarre goals and blundering badly in sub-human ways.

Every time I see a post minimizing the dangers if AI I'm going to wonder whether it's from part of an AI swarm.

Probably not yet, but it's trivially easy to imagine the OpenAI swarm coming up with the idea and executing on it.

Depending on how perfectly alignment work goes, it might even be overwhelmingly likely sometime soon.

This whole "we can't trust the people warning us because they're either weirdos or involved" deal is such a strange angle when you can just start from zero, look at what's known to be happening right now, and draw a very straight line to catastrophe.

It's like being concerned Oppenheimer and company are exaggerating when looking at the first nuclear tests at the same time.

Could someone point me to some background on this whole incident or write a quick one? I don't know who they are or what's going on but it seems important.

We saw this with AlphaStar too, but ultimately it feels like simply an exploit. I expect even a relatively simple modern LLM/model working with the custom transformer would have been able to address these exploits after a game.

> name change at 18 probably

That's so cool because it's true, and holds very strongly with the semantic concept

Wild comment - first of all, the author's point is that biology should be taught better, not that it's an amazing career on the ground as it is today.

Second of all, I like how you called out the degeneracy of gambling, I can't think of any bigger contrast between the author's goals and actual application of talent. Bravo on your W-2G, society is proud.

I love that Perplexity just beat them in court because AIs are at least one hammer that might smash this bullshit. It's so sad, Amazon is chasing every short-term dollar at the expense of long-term success. I have also been moving my purchases away from them - might as well buy direct from the Chinese sellers rather than use Amazon as a middleman.

What am I looking at? I don't recognize the models or the authors. The visualization looks super cool though.

This only makes sense way downstream of massive subsidies, not the least of which is China determining at a federal level that they wanted to produce an obscene amount of solar panels.

And now it's complicated because the ideal move would just be to say "thank you" and buy all the cheap panels and batteries, but that hollows out your own industry.

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Russian credibility is at ~zero IMO. They've put forth so many insane theories related to this war that they started.

And just on first principles, how stupid would the Ukrainian have to be to do such a thing to their biggest ally? It almost beggars belief.

And what's your solution to mass unemployment due to AI?

If you play this out, UBI or some near variant is inevitable.

> A great achievement of European science and technology (ducks).

It's a fantastic machine but the bulk of the achievement is clearly a joint European-American effort.

I am not at all a security expert, but isn't this akin to giving a repo-owner RCE if you just clone their repository and open it? I feel like that's not an implied contract for opening a folder in your IDE.

Lol the word guzzle in this context is just objectively spin. It's fine, especially because it's so transparent, but it only takes reading 4 words to know the position of the article on the situation.

This seems like a crazy position to me. In what world is someone with connectivity not significantly safer in remote areas? Obviously doesn't help with immediately fatal scenarios (falls, drowning etc), but there are whole classes of getting-lost or losing-mobility disasters that just don't exist anymore with connectivity.

I wouldn't stop driving my Tesla if they swapped the UI for Carplay but I'd be incredibly disappointed at the downgrade

I'm a certified Superpowers hater. It's just not necessary with the modern models and fills up the context windows with garbage and adds an insane number of turns for no benefit.

I had similar prompts back when the models were terrible at instruction-following, so it was actually useful to fill up their context with a mass of instructions so they'd be less likely to forget rules.

Now I've got a few small slash commands or pasted prompts that work perfectly every time as the models follow them exactly.

I think the "prove a negative" idea is a bit silly, my common sense says that the patent system should work better so if it doesn't, somebody's going to have to extensively prove it to me or show me a clear mechanism as to why it doesn't.

I could read a book on it but Italy/Switzerland (combined ~5-10% of drug discovery) making changes 60 years ago doesn't get me too excited about updating my priors.

Tbf, I recall the official guidance being a complete mess for a period. I recall feeling satisfied at not wearing a mask to comply with official guidance for a (short) period. Then the guidance changed.

I just heard it for the first time but why is that ironic? Isn't the point about feeling and not age?

I think the primary reason why our reality has quickly surpassed a bulk of earlier sci-fi is that sci-fi starts to become less interesting on average as AIs/robots start to dominate the frontier of everything.

It's "progress" but it's...not interesting except at the beginning of the threshold, when AIs overtake humanity. In many sci-fi stories that's a dominant theme, but it's not likely to be a long epoch in reality IMO, based on the very brief periods when machines/AIs have overtaken humans in individual domains (arithmetic, chess, Go, coding, translation, CGI, etc).

Bayes Theorem...the chances this rather milquetoast and balanced analysis was written by someone with no knowledge is vanishingly low IMO.