If you're going to make an outlandish claim like that, I'd like to see some arguments to back it up.
E.g. ask it about the molecular description for anything. It'll start with something fundamental like the CH3N4 etc then describe the bonds. But the bonds will be a mishmash of many chemical descriptions thrown together. Because similar questions had that kind of answer.
The worst part is, it blurts forth with perfect confidence. I liken it to a blowhard acquaintance that will make up crap about any technical subject they have a few words for, as if they are an expert. It's funny except when somebody relies on it as truth.
I don't think GPT3 at its heart is an expert at anything. Except generating likely-looking text. There's no 'superego' involved anywhere that audits the output for truthfulness. And certainly no logical understanding of what it's saying.
https://www.reddit.com/r/pinescript/comments/1029r7p/please_...
People have taken to asking ChatGPT to create entire scripts to trade money. When they don't work, they go into chatrooms or forums and ask "why doesn't this work" without saying it was made by ChatGPT. It causes people to open the post, read it a bit and only maybe after a minute or two of wasted time, realize the script is complete nonsense.
I've played with chatgpt enough to notice that for some queries it's fundamentally doing an auto-summarize of such content.
Consider this. Someone very early posted that a neat feature of chatgpt would be to give chatgpt a list of ISBN numbers and then demand it's answers are cited from this corpus. We're not there yet but this would be amazing.
My prediction is that those with money will have power to influence their chat bot. Consequently, they'll have access a higher-quality and wider corpus of information. There will not be any restrictions on how chatgpt would answer due to for example, woke agendas. Also, players such as Goldman Sachs would feed their model content generated by their analyst that consumers would not have access to. This already happens but chatgpt will make this information so much more potent.
Furthermore, as this technology continues to improve it will increase the productivity of our population and ultimately generate higher GDP. I'm super excited.
It currently has the ability to do this. It'll make the citations up, of course – but that behaviour is inherent to the architecture; a system that didn't do that would have to work differently at a fundamental level.
> chatgpt will make this information so much more potent.
How do you imagine this would work?
> and ultimately generate higher GDP.
Again, how do you imagine this would work? GDP is a specific economic measure; how would (a better version of) this technology increase GDP?
Tangentially: why is "increase GDP" a good ultimate goal to have in the first place?
> How do you imagine this would work?
Don't overthink it. It's just the nature of the tool. Imagine you're a detective trying to investigate a crime,
- "list the plates of blue hondas in this area at this time, that have a missing rear bumper and a scratched driver side door" - "send a notifications to all gas stations along this route and notify them of a blue honda"
And, if you're a Goldman Sachs analyst, you can just use natural language to gather information. "i have this scenario, list companies that will benefit" would be an abstract question that you'd ask it. Obivously, the system isn't this good yet but you get the idea. You'd just have to ask more fine grained questions and use some of your domain knowledge to fill the gap until it does become this good.
>> and ultimately generate higher GDP.
> Again, how do you imagine this would work? GDP is a specific economic measure; how would (a better version of) this technology increase GDP?
Google (or chat gpt) would do a better job than me answering this,
"Increases in productivity allow firms to produce greater output for the same level of input, earn higher revenues, and ultimately generate higher Gross Domestic Product."
The reason you want to increase gdp... the following quote was derived from one of Herbert Hoover’s memoirs.
"[Engineering] It is a great profession. There is the satisfaction of watching a figment of the imagination emerge through the aid of science to a plan on paper. Then it moves to realization in stone or metal or energy. Then it brings jobs and homes to men. Then it elevates the standards of living and adds to the comforts of life. That is the engineer’s high privilege."
By increasing GDP, you elevate the standard of living and add to the comfort of life.
I think this shows a significant misunderstanding of what chatgpt does fundamentally. It will never be able to do this unless also fed a description, location, and time of cars in a certain area as context beforehand(either as training data or a prompt). In either case you have access to the data and just need to do a simple search, so chatgpt is providing negative value since it's capable of providing results that don't exist in the dataset.
Similarly for your Goldman Sachs example, you're imagining that chatgpt is greater than it is. It is capable of providing something that would likely follow a given text on the internet at its time of training(aka it's training set) somewhere. It can't reason about new information or situations since it's incapable of reasoning. To believe that it could generate business strategies is to believe that effective business strategies don't require any intuition or reasoning to progress, just statistical recombination of existing strategies.
> By increasing GDP, you elevate the standard of living and add to the comfort of life.
How do you reach this conclusion from the information presented? Why use GDP, a measure of the profitability of corporations, as a proxy for the standard of living instead of measuring the standard of living and seeing how it will be impacted directly instead of through many layers of abstraction.
You are asking a question that is outside of scope here. GDP per capita has been used as a proxy for standard of living for quite some time now.
> Any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes. — Charles Goodhart
GDP (£) per capita in London has doubled since 1998. Has the standard of living "doubled" for the median person? What about the standard of living for the poorest 1%? Has the productivity boost due to automation translated into correspondingly shorter working hours, or correspondingly larger compensation for work done?
What questions do you actually mean to ask, when you talk about GDP?
The answer was a story about Gandalf beeing hurt badly, beeing rescued by some random dwarfs, and so on.
I asked ChatGPT in which book this is described, and it told me that you can read about it on both The Hobbit and The Lord of the Rings.
So it makes up fun stories. This makes me wondering how much of its explantions about physics (which I don't understand completely) are made-up.
Then we realize they’re like anyone else and they’re massively demonized
It's apparently really hard to objectively measure/report the "truthiness" of LLM results
Allowing an LLM to "improvise" and be a bit fast-and-lose is unfortunately a necessary ingredient in how they currently work.
In most ML cases (and ChatGPT likely), "confidence" would generally just correlate how closely the query matches data and patterns it's seen in its dataset and inversely correlate with how many conflicting matches and patterns it sees.
Humans are subject to the same problem of course. If you asked how confident a person living many centuries ago was that the Earth was flat, they'd probably say "very confident" because there was nothing in their training data / lived experience to conflict with that view. But they'd be wrong.
But humans still have a significant advantage in that they report lack of confidence when they sense logical inconsistencies and violations of reasoning to a level that ML models can't (at least not yet).
Maybe a fan-out of the possible ways it could answer would be interesting, but really we more need a disclaimer next to every answer that says "this thing that's answering in fully formed language does not have human reasoning capability and can't be trusted (yet)"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myth_of_the_flat_Earth
"The earliest clear documentation of the idea of a spherical Earth comes from the ancient Greeks (5th century BC). The belief was widespread in the Greek world when Eratosthenes calculated the circumference of Earth around 240 BC. This knowledge spread with Greek influence such that during the Early Middle Ages (~600–1000 AD), most European and Middle Eastern scholars espoused Earth's sphericity.[3] Belief in a flat Earth among educated Europeans was almost nonexistent from the Late Middle Ages onward ... Historian Jeffrey Burton Russell says the flat-Earth error flourished most between 1870 and 1920, and had to do with the ideological setting created by struggles over biological evolution"
I asked ChatGPT the same question and it prevaricated:
"There is evidence that some people in medieval times believed the Earth was flat, while others believed it was round. The idea that the Earth is round, or more accurately, an oblate spheroid, has been around since ancient times. The ancient Greeks, for example, knew that the Earth was a sphere. However, the idea that the Earth is flat also has a long history and can be traced back to ancient civilizations as well. During the Middle Ages, the idea that the Earth was round was not widely accepted, and there was significant debate about the shape of the Earth. Some people continued to believe in the idea that the Earth was flat, while others argued for a round Earth. It is important to note that the medieval period was a time of great intellectual and scientific change, and ideas about the shape of the Earth and other scientific concepts were still being developed and debated."
But from what I know, it's wrong, at least as far as we know the historical record (of course there may have been peasants who believed otherwise but their views weren't recorded). The fact that the Earth is a sphere is obvious to anyone who watched a ship sail over the horizon, which is an experience people had from ancient times.
For example:
> I'm going to share some information, I want you to classify it in the following JSON-like format and provide a responses that match this typescript interface:
> {
> "isXXXXX": boolean;
> "certainty": number;
> }
However, I got either 0 or 1 for the certainty every time. Not sure if it was because they were either cut-and-dry cases (certainty 1) or not-enough-information (certainty 0).
I'm actually trying to think of a good example of text I could ask it to intuit information from and give me a certainty
For example, ask it to subtract 2 20-digit numbers. It will come up with an answer X where the first couple of digits are correct, and everything after that is wrong.
It gets better.
Ask it to correct itself. It will come up with a different wrong answer Y.
If you then ask it to explain why the answer is right, it will give you an explanation. At the end of the explanation it states the answer is X again, and then in the very next line concludes by telling you that is why the answer Y is correct. :)
I'm only half joking. Even experts in their field tend to inject their own biases and experiential preferences when answering questions in depth.
Even when it's wrong, it's confidently wrong.
I'd expect that the boring reality is that it's trained on highly ethos/logos text (academic works) and thus always presents itself as such, even when its weights cause an invalid assertion.
For example, there was a voice actor that lied about being paid a pitiful sum of money for a gig. Everyone took her side initially (as one should _if_ it were true) but the people saying "well, this just seems odd" were being more or less attacked and told their opinions were awful.
The quality of discussions I have on HN and niche forums are 100x better than reddit.
Honestly feels like they're both pretty important datasets to ingest if trying to build a model on human speech, I reckon social medias, comment sections and co have the most natural human conversational text online.
Their training objective, which is to predict the next piece of text in their training data, does not incentivise them to respond that they don't know something, as there no relation in the training data between the AI not knowing something and the correct next text being "I don't know" or similar
ChatGPT is a tool; it's value depends on how well I can trust it. Humans are not tools.
> experts in their field tend to inject their own biases and experiential preferences when answering questions in depth.
Another typical argument - everyone makes mistakes, therefore my mistakes aren't relevant. Everyone can do math, but there's a big difference between my math and Timothy Gowers. Everyone lies and everyone tells the truth at times, but the meaningful difference is in degree - some do it all the time, with major consequences, take no responsibility, and cause lots of harm. That's different than the person committed to integrity.
What we should be saying is this: there will always be benefits of experiential knowledge and there will always be faults with experiential knowledge, regardless of man vs. machine.
there are things about a chat model that you can't say about humans, like, it's not really ethical to keep a human stuffed in your pocket to be your personal assistant at your whim.
I think one of the things folks struggle with in grokking the value of these models is that we're really used to tools being like you say; they're reliable and do a thing. As though there are two states of work - perfect and useless. There are other patterns to interact with information, and this puts what we used to need humans for in a place that we can do other things with it. stuff like:
- brainstorming - rubber duck debugging - casually discussing a topic - exploring ideas / knowledge - study groups (as in, having other semi-knowledge entities around to bounce ideas off of, ask questions, etc)
when it comes to self driving cars, well, that's a bit of a different story and really is more a discussion about ethics and law and those standards. I, and others like you speak of are held of the opinion that the expectation for autonomous vehicles is a bit high given the rates of human failure, but there's plenty of arguments to be made that automating and scaling a thing means you should hold it to a higher standard anyway. I don't think there's a correct answer on this one - it's complex enough to be a battery if opinion. You mention the potential for harm, and certainly that applies here.
I'm less worried about chatgpt being wrong. Much less likely to flatten me at an intersection.
Maybe, but look at it this way: Do you work in business? If so, step back and reread that - it seems a lot like a salesperson finding a roundabout way to say, 'my product doesn't actually work'.