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Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by cj on Thursday July 21, 2022 @01:35PM (#32182301)
While not exactly aligned to the research, I've been surprised how poor Nest Thermostat's learning feature is.

The main selling point for Nest is having a "learning thermostat". Perhaps my schedule is just not predictable enough, but the auto-generated temperature schedules it generates after its "learning" period is not even close to what I would manually set up on a normal thermostat.

Maybe I'm just an "edge case" or part of the "long tail"

Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by Slackwise on Thursday July 21, 2022 @01:44PM (#32182432)
"Why am I sweating right now? Oh, the Nest set the temperature too high again!"

And then after a few instances, I just turn off all the automation and set up a schedule like normal.

Same with the "away from home" which seems to randomly think I'm away and I have no idea why.

Oh, and the app doesn't show me filter reminders, only the actual device, which I never touch all the way downstairs. There's not even any status to let me know if it's accepted a new dialed-in temperature, as I've had it fail to capture a request, and then I go back, and see it never updated/saved the new temp. Just zero feedback to confirm that the thermostat has responded to any input, and zero notification from the app if this happens.

Just thoroughly unimpressed.

Thankfully I didn't buy this junk, as it was pre-installed by the owner of my rental. Can't imagine actually paying for something that's only real feature is being able to remotely control my temperature once in a while.

Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by mbesto on Thursday July 21, 2022 @05:18PM (#32185224)
I've always heard this, and so when I went for my first smart thermometer I went straight to Ecobee (which I'm very happy with btw).

So I gotta ask HN...what the heck was so popular about Nests?! It's one thing to be go after shiny lures like new iPhone apps or luxury items...but a Thermostat?!

Mind boggling...

Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by Eugr on Thursday July 21, 2022 @06:33PM (#32186060)
It looks good on the wall, has a bright large display that lights up when you approach and intuitive enough for non-techies to operate. Also it can be installed without a common wire.
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by bqmjjx0kac on Thursday July 21, 2022 @07:10PM (#32186394)
And you can control it from your phone, or with your voice by talking to Google assistant.
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by AlexandrB on Thursday July 21, 2022 @11:06PM (#32188002)
The industrial design of the thing is really nice. I wish someone could/would copy them. I don't use any of the smart features nor do I connect it to the app, but it's still the nicest looking thermostat out there.
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by Melatonic on Thursday July 21, 2022 @07:39PM (#32186630)
The problem I think with all of these ML functions is that there is never enough of an in between full manual and full auto magic. The Nest could simply ask you a few times a day how you feel about how its doing (too hot ? too cold? too expensive?) or you could opt in somewhere and to give feedback. And then it could keep doing its behind the scenes mumbo jumbo.
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by mjevans on Thursday July 21, 2022 @08:01PM (#32186826)
How I feel is at least psychosomatically related to how the system is operating, but also how things are outside of the controlled environment.

Generally this is an algorithm that might work for one person:

* Is it equal or higher than the upper temperature outside? Run COOLing function (if it exists) until the LOWER inside temperature bound is reached.

* ELSE Is it equal or lower than the lower temperature outside? Run HEATing function (if it exists) until the UPPER inside temperature bound is reached.

In both cases DO NOT continue to run the circulation fans, at least above a whisper quite slow circulation, past the thermal shift operation. Luke-warm airflow makes the system perceptibly anemic and the results dis-satisfactory.

Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by wutbrodo on Thursday July 21, 2022 @10:48PM (#32187900)
This is more of a product problem than a technological one. I don't think the issue is lack of imagination, but hostility from consumers.

There are a million and one cases where a pdocut could be 10x better with 10% more effort from me,and where that tradeoff is more than worth it (hell, it's why I use Linux). But the average consumer is aggressively turned off by having to do any "work", and the type of person hanging out on Hacker News is very high-percentile for wanting to put a nonzero amount of work into optimizing this type of thing.

Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by soco on Friday July 22, 2022 @05:42AM (#32190243)
I have already a solution where I can put zero amount of work for optimizing it, it's called a button. Why would I bother with something as needy as this "smart" thing?
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by wutbrodo on Saturday July 23, 2022 @04:00PM (#32207049)
I don't understand your comment or how it's remotely relevant to the thread. Is this just a non sequitur Luddite rant about the very existence of new tech?
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by 8note on Thursday July 21, 2022 @10:54PM (#32187932)
Surely each time I change the temperature manually that's a signal it's been wrong for the past half hour or so
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by TaupeRanger on Thursday July 21, 2022 @02:47PM (#32183223)
Same story. We moved into a house that had a Nest preinstalled. Got everything set up, and noticed after a couple of days we would always wake up freezing in the early morning. Nest was all over the place and I just turned off the automation.
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by bryanrasmussen on Thursday July 21, 2022 @04:16PM (#32184424)
>And then after a few instances, I just turn off all the automation and set up a schedule like normal.

If you have a fairly regular life I would think a schedule would outdo ML pretty much all the time, because you know exactly what that schedule should be. ML might be useful for a secret agent whose life is so erratic that a schedule would be useless.

That is to say ML is maybe better than falling back to nothing.

Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by capableweb on Thursday July 21, 2022 @04:39PM (#32184710)
If your schedule is so irregular/erratic, how is a ML algorithm supposed to be able to learn it?

Sounds like in that case it's better to just control things manually.

Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by bryanrasmussen on Thursday July 21, 2022 @04:46PM (#32184799)
ML can learn patterns that humans might not be aware of, so you there might be certain things that happen that show you will be on a mission to East Asia for a couple days.
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by tomrod on Thursday July 21, 2022 @05:43PM (#32185533)
Only when data is supplied to it to match the trained pattern,

ML is pattern recognition. Anything outside of that is still AI, but it isn't ML. I can think of very few feature sets we could supply to help predict someone will be deployed to East Asia for a few days other than scraping calendars and mail for religious and military organizations.

From a design perspective, Nest and others are either additively learning in situ to enhance a base model or they are working from a base model that doesn't directly learn, just classifies workflow to categorize observations on a base model. I doubt heavy training is occurring where the Nest and similar is treated as the central compute node.

Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by sarahlwalks on Thursday July 21, 2022 @05:32PM (#32185401)
One niche that ML seems to be growing into is /assisting/ humans, but not doing the whole task. ML might give you an image that is 90 percent what you want but needs a few tweaks.

If the task is clear enough, ML can take it on by itself, but this requires clear rules and an absolutely unambiguous definition of what winning means. For example, the best chess players in the world are machines, and are FAR better than the best human players. Same for Go (the game, not the programming language).

Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by dreamcompiler on Friday July 22, 2022 @09:17AM (#32191573)
I bought one back before Google bought the company, because it seemed like a well-designed product with a good UI. In addition to the problems you mentioned, it was constantly updating its firmware. That sometimes bricked the device temporarily and sometimes it changed the UI so I had to relearn how to use the device. One update removed the ability to manually set "away" mode. I finally wised up and reset the thing so it couldn't attach to my wifi any more. Which made the app useless of course.

Then it became clear the thermostat wasn't getting enough power from my 2-wire thermostat transformer and that made it even flakier. I finally threw it away and replaced it with a $20 dumb thermostat, which will still be working fine after the zombie apocalypse. No more Nest products for me.

Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by itissid on Friday July 22, 2022 @12:06AM (#32188406)
> Same with the "away from home" which seems to randomly think I'm away and I have no idea why.

Away from home should be an easy problem to solve assuming Nest can talk to your phone(which is almost 100% true in real life). IN my experience there are several easy heuristics that can achieve ~ 90% precision and recall in home detection, like are you connected to a wifi or even combining it with some IMU data to be more confident.

Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by soco on Friday July 22, 2022 @05:45AM (#32190255)
Everything should be an easy problem to solve yet it somehow stays a problem. For me it's quite binary: the problem is solved yes/no. And if the easy problem is still not solved, it's still not solved, period.
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by HWR_14 on Thursday July 21, 2022 @05:26PM (#32185316)
The ability to remotely activate it is useful in the case of erratic short term rentals. Other than that, I'm not sure of the point
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by miguelazo on Thursday July 21, 2022 @05:41PM (#32185519)
Which is something that a cheaper, more basic Honeywell model with way less surveillance potential can also do...
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by HWR_14 on Thursday July 21, 2022 @06:47PM (#32186177)
Indeed. I wouldn't buy a Nest. But there is a use case for an IoT thermostat.
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by dominotw on Thursday July 21, 2022 @03:00PM (#32183382)
Maybe it considers environmental impact of air conditioning in its models and tries to nudge users into tolerating higher temps.
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by tristor on Thursday July 21, 2022 @06:23PM (#32185956)
Which is not respecting your users. In fact, in my previous house the Nest was provided by the utility company and they used it /exactly/ for this purpose (although were legally mandated to notify us and allow us to opt out on a daily basis) where they'd intentionally raise your temperature during the hottest part of the day to reduce energy usage. But the thing is, I work from home, and if I'm sweating out a liter of fluids while I'm trying to work, I am getting nothing done and look unpresentable on meetings to boot.

In the end because most of the house was empty, I let the Nest do its thing and installed a separate mini-split AC in my office I kept set at 72 year-round because that's a sane and reasonable temperature for an office. Don't try to "nudge me into tolerating higher temps", respect my agency and choice about what is a comfortable environment for me to work in.

As a side note, I will never again buy a Nest product.

Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by idontpost on Thursday July 21, 2022 @04:14PM (#32184400)
If you have to guess why it's making decisions you don't want, it's a shitty product.
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by kayodelycaon on Thursday July 21, 2022 @02:08PM (#32182707)
Things like this are exactly why I went with less "intelligent" smart thermostat. (Honeywell T9)

The only learning feature it has is figuring out how long it takes to heat or cool the house given the current weather. Before a schedule change, can heat or cool the house so it hits next target temperature on time. This seems to work extremely well.

Everything else like schedule and away settings are configured by the user.

Once nice feature is it is fully programmable from the thermostat, without internet. You only need the app for setting a geofence for automatic home/away.

Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by connicpu on Thursday July 21, 2022 @02:47PM (#32183216)
Building my own thermostat so I have total control was a fun project, I learned a lot about electrical engineering and built a circuit with some TRIACs to control the HVAC lines. Though I still need to give it an interface so I can program it some way other than uploading the program as a JSON blob to my raspberry pi!
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by bavell on Thursday July 21, 2022 @10:46PM (#32187889)
This has been on my project list for a long time haha, would you happen to have any blog posts or references for those of us who aspire to do the same?
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by connicpu on Friday July 29, 2022 @03:44PM (#32281010)
Sorry for the late reply! Hmm, I don't have any particular posts I followed on hand, but I learned a lot by watching ElectroBOOM and Ben Eater's videos on YouTube. A general background in C++ development made getting started with Arduino code (you can use arduino frameworks for chips like the ESP8266) a snap as well
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by Melatonic on Thursday July 21, 2022 @07:40PM (#32186640)
Sounds nice. Let the machine figure out something other than people - it will probably be much better at that.
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by PaulHoule on Thursday July 21, 2022 @01:42PM (#32182394)
When people hear that FAANG is involved in something an "Emperor's Clothes" effect kicks in and people stop making the usual assumption that "if it doesn't work for me it probably doesn't work for other people"
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by fshbbdssbbgdd on Thursday July 21, 2022 @03:56PM (#32184120)
Not only does the Nest ignore my preferences, I think it actually lies about the current temperature.

Example:

Setting is 72, reading is 73. AC is not on, I guess the thermostat is trying to save energy. I lower setting to 71, reading instantly drops to 72! I don’t think it’s a coincidence, this has happened several times.

Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by dreamcompiler on Friday July 22, 2022 @09:32AM (#32191718)
> Setting is 72, reading is 73. AC is not on, I guess the thermostat is trying to save energy.

This can be explained by hysteresis [0], which all thermostats use to avoid cycling the A/C too fast.

But the second part where the reading drops instantly is strange. Sounds like some kind of software heuristic where they're trying to make the user feel more comfortable about the hysteresis interval. Or something.

[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hysteresis

Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by runnerup on Thursday July 21, 2022 @02:00PM (#32182621)
I also hate how Nest only let me download at most 7 days of "historical" data. They have the rest of my historical data, but I can't get a copy of my own data.
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by amelius on Thursday July 21, 2022 @02:34PM (#32183042)
Presumably they don't want the average consumer to be aware of that fact.
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by switchbak on Thursday July 21, 2022 @07:15PM (#32186436)
The Ecobee is not really any better. It has various "features" which all end up in setting the temperature at a very uncomfortable setting even when you're home.

If I wanted those kind of savings, I could have just turned down my thermostat myself. Jeesh.

Matt Risinger (youtube expert builder guy) mentioned these are not anywhere near as valuable as they seem, and I'm inclined to agree. It's nice to be able to flick it on vacation mode when you're away I suppose.

I'd still buy it again, nice geeky metrics, and it's a quality company, but it doesn't save me anywhere close to 30% (or whatever the claim was).

Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by nahname on Thursday July 21, 2022 @02:32PM (#32183017)
It is bad. I dislike most "smart" things though, so take my agreement with a grain of salt.
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by baxtr on Thursday July 21, 2022 @03:10PM (#32183531)
Google destroys any great product they acquire (except google maps and YT I guess).
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by actusual on Thursday July 21, 2022 @01:42PM (#32182393)
Nah, you're not. I just gave up on mine and have a schedule. I also turned off "pre-cooling" because it would just kick on at like 6pm to "cool" the house for bedtime. I also bought several temperature sensors to use, which are fun. At night I have the thermostat use the sensor in my bedroom, then goes back to the main thermostat during the day.
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by foobarian on Thursday July 21, 2022 @05:30PM (#32185385)
See the next logical step is to outfit the output vents with servo-controlled actuators so you can fine-tune where the air is going!
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by actusual on Monday July 25, 2022 @02:10PM (#32228528)
Additionally:

- Use a python script to switch heating from my heat pump to my gas furnace when energy prices invert. - Have live monitoring of my HVAC pressure health so that my servo controlled actuators don't bork my system.

Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by ryangittins on Thursday July 21, 2022 @09:55PM (#32187561)
This has been my experience as well. I was very excited to turn on the learning mode when I got it, only to turn it off a few weeks later in favor of scheduling. I've tried turning it on a couple times since then, and I always revert to a simple, manually-programmed schedule.
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by pid_0 on Thursday July 21, 2022 @01:47PM (#32182481)
Nest is a terrible product. The learning aspect did not work at all and their app always takes forever to refresh. I switched to ecobee and couldn’t be happier. HomeKit and home assistant integration without hassle. Google products are generally quite terrible.
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by sdoering on Thursday July 21, 2022 @02:06PM (#32182677)
The same for me when I am looking for very specific terms and search engines think the know better and autocorrect me.

Having to make an additional click because I receive something I have never searched for is unnerving.

Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by kumarvvr on Thursday July 21, 2022 @09:53PM (#32187554)
Haha. For current state of AI and ML, 95% of the target users would be categorized as "long tail"
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by foobarian on Thursday July 21, 2022 @05:28PM (#32185351)
Well, the main selling point when it came out was that it was the iPhone of thermostats. It was the only thermostat at the time that did not have a terrible UI cobbled together by communist residential block designers or people who think that setting your own IRQ pins with jumpers is fun. But yeah I never understood the point of the learning feature; maybe a checkbox that needed to be ticked or a founder's pet feature.
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by avereveard on Thursday July 21, 2022 @11:20PM (#32188100)
It's mostly to trick people in thinking they don't need as many sensors for a smart home, once the nest is bought the sunk cost fallacy kicks in.
Re:ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices by bell-cot on Thursday July 21, 2022 @01:43PM (#32182407)
Or, maybe they invested far more cash and care in marketing that feature than in programming that feature...