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Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by contravariant on Wednesday February 02, 2022 @03:56PM (#30183964)
So to summarize:

- Freeways account for 93% of distance travelled with Autopilot

- Freeways account for 28% of the distance travelled by regular drivers.

- "vehicles on non-freeways crashed 2.01 times more often per mile"

a quick back of the envelop calculation suggests merely driving on the freeway lowers accidents per mile by ~40%, which accounts for most of the difference between Autopilot and regular drivers.

Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by belter on Wednesday February 02, 2022 @08:49PM (#30187335)
Again the old tricks, from "How To Lie With Statistics."

I get you a perfect Sample around age, income, sex, nationality, times of day and others. Prove to you 98% of people in this Town love Romantic Comedies.

The only thing I am not telling you, is that I am running the Inquiry at the exit atrium door of a Romantic Comedy movie...

Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by stavros on Thursday February 03, 2022 @07:17AM (#30191490)
I doubt you'd be able to get much over 50%, given how often the audience there is couples on dates :P
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by KennyBlanken on Wednesday February 02, 2022 @10:16PM (#30188087)
There are additional factors.

Teslas are on average substantially newer than the average US passenger car fleet and thus have significantly more safety features and driver assistance tech, are better maintained, etc.

If Tesla compared only to vehicles of similar age and class (Audi/BMW/Mercedes etc) their stats would be much less favorable.

Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by josefx on Thursday February 03, 2022 @05:34AM (#30190824)
> are better maintained, etc.

Recent statistics released by TüV^1 show that among relatively new cars Tesla competes with Dacia for the highest failure rate among all cars that go through Germanies mandatory road worthiness tests.

^1 https://www.pcwelt.de/news/TUeV-warnt-vor-typischer-Schwachs...

Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by originalvichy on Thursday February 03, 2022 @08:25AM (#30192078)
Go find the HN discussion on this report. German processes and bureaucracy surrounding road worthiness checks is not favourable towards non-established car brands like Tesla.

In short: big car brands' cars go through a preliminary check at manufacturers' licensed dealerships, and only after that get sent to the government's checks. It enables manufacturers to fix cars before independent verification so their safety numbers look great. Tesla doesn't have this kind of extensive network for "pre-checks".

Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by HWR_14 on Thursday February 03, 2022 @08:32AM (#30192135)
You're explaining (one of) the reasons Tesla is failing at the metric. Far from showing the metric is flawed, you're exposing the value of a dealer system and what Tesla's customers are losing because there isn't one.
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by ZeroGravitas on Thursday February 03, 2022 @08:47AM (#30192297)
What value are you talking about?

Not publishing open stats on test failures? Why is that something the customer would want to pay for?

Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by HWR_14 on Thursday February 03, 2022 @08:53AM (#30192362)
The value is as an additional line of QC. If you think about it as "hiding statistics" then there is no value. If you think of it as the last step in the production process, then clearly the cars making it to the customers are of a higher average level if the bad ones get rejected.

It also lets Tesla play with the numbers of shipped cars, because cars returned by dealers don't count as shipped.

But look at the recent HN story about the Tesla without a brake pad.

Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by ZeroGravitas on Thursday February 03, 2022 @08:56AM (#30192401)
I think you may be confused as to the context. Or else I am, let me check.

Ok, so this is a check done after the car has been used for 3 years.

So, it's not QC before the car leaves the factory, it's fixing things before the government checks them and puts them into the public stats for test "failures".

Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by HWR_14 on Thursday February 03, 2022 @09:11AM (#30192585)
I may have misunderstood. These statistics are generated by the government checking vehicles after they've been in service for 3 years by an end consumer? And only after the dealer gives it an immediately preceding check? If so, that invalidates my point.

If it's just the results of regular dealer maintenance, it's fuzzier.

Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by josefx on Thursday February 03, 2022 @10:35AM (#30193725)
> And only after the dealer gives it an immediately preceding check?

Some dealers are qualified to perform the checks and also offer to perform a pre check for free. However cars checked by a dealer would not end up on a statistic of cars checked by TüV.

Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by originalvichy on Thursday February 03, 2022 @11:19AM (#30194328)
If your mom warned you a day in advance that she is going to see how lean your room is, is she going to get a true understanding of your cleanliness, or just a snapshot of what your room is like?
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by kaba0 on Thursday February 03, 2022 @02:38AM (#30189771)
Also, I think the biggest flaw in tesla’s statistics is that people will turn of autopilot when they see a dangerous situation ahead - it is pretty much as self-selecting “good” samples as it gets.
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by dachryn on Thursday February 03, 2022 @03:27AM (#30190056)
indeed, either they turn off autopilot to avoid the crash, or it crashed. The cases 'would have crashed if the human did not intervene' should also count if you want to claim it is super safe
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by robbiepapiere on Thursday February 03, 2022 @03:35AM (#30190098)
That seems irrelevant for the statistics, though? It doesn‘t give the Tesla driver an advantage.
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by bildung on Thursday February 03, 2022 @04:23AM (#30190440)
It does? Those drivers remove a small portion of the autopilot miles driven, but a large portion of the challenging/dangerous miles. The result are stats with a low accident per mile ratio.
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by dtgriscom on Thursday February 03, 2022 @06:16AM (#30191076)
It definitely skews the statistics. Compare two driver's records, but use all the driving of the first, and only the driving on safe/clear/clean/visible sections of highway for the second. Voila: the second will very probably be the "better" driver.
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by contravariant on Thursday February 03, 2022 @05:07AM (#30190690)
Sure, but the important question is the capability of the Autopilot, not the Tesla driver.
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by nottorp on Thursday February 03, 2022 @07:43AM (#30191714)
I've driven someone's new Tesla. The rear right door didn't align with the body. New, fresh from the factory.

Please don't compare it to high end german cars.

Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by Robotbeat on Wednesday February 02, 2022 @10:53PM (#30188394)
People often save up especially for a Tesla (incorporating gas and maintenance savings in the price), including a lot of people who wouldn't be buying a BMW, so I'm not sure price would be the right metric there.
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by ChuckNorris89 on Thursday February 03, 2022 @02:28AM (#30189722)
Are you saying just because more people are being financially irresponsible when buying Teslas, we should cease such comparisons?
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by Robotbeat on Thursday February 03, 2022 @12:42PM (#30195727)
No, I’m saying that people incorporate a $10k price of gasoline into the price of the vehicle instead of paying for them separately as you would with a BMW.
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by beberlei on Thursday February 03, 2022 @02:23AM (#30189694)
Parent does not include price as a metric, but cars of the same age and class, which probably have many of the same default extra safety features. Older cars might not even have ESC, they certainly don't have cameras that help you detect cars in blind angles and so on.
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by Robotbeat on Thursday February 03, 2022 @12:43PM (#30195738)
“Class” here refers to pricing, does it not? Luxury car owners will be quick to point out that the Model 3 and Y are not “luxury” class even if the cost ranges aren’t far apart.
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by avs733 on Wednesday February 02, 2022 @05:07PM (#30184753)
so in sum, Thomas Bayes just kicked Tesla square in the ass?
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by nwiswell on Wednesday February 02, 2022 @08:31PM (#30187165)
Square in the frunk.
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by noworld on Thursday February 03, 2022 @07:20AM (#30191516)
> more often

This is what matters. If/when it becomes less often, the case will be made (i.e. driverless doesn't have to be perfect to be better).

Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by alfor on Wednesday February 02, 2022 @07:44PM (#30186733)
From what I heard the autopilot code is pretty old by now, with the new developpement on FSD I think we will see a lot of improvement, in human driving... not so much.
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by adolph on Wednesday February 02, 2022 @06:20PM (#30185668)
There are additional confounding variables noted in the paper:

  - Age of driver
  - Specific highways used (congestion, road conditions)
  - What is classified as a highway
Overall this is pretty good news for "autopilot" systems. It gives some humans an ego-boost as they clutch to steering wheels like John Henry. It gives others interested in a more relaxed driving experience the confidence that the computer isn't going to kill them any worse than they already do.
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by AtlasBarfed on Wednesday February 02, 2022 @07:18PM (#30186426)
And you know what? All I want out of the first fifteen years of self-driving is a really good highway autopilot.

As in one I can hopefully sleep at the wheel on a late night trip between midwestern US cities.

John Henryism can navigate the suburbs, stroads, and drivethrus. If they achieve a backup safety system that monitors the humans, well, ok great.

But right now, I want long distance automation, and I can handle the messy last mile. Highways are much easier to get uniform infrastructure convergence: some sensors, PSA warnings, better signs + markings + construction notices, etc.

I think Uber making as big a splash at it did sidetracked this low hanging fruit. IMO that was where the bootstrap bucks were, because you would have gotten freight/shipping to pay the cost of the next gen software, and would have provided the impetus for the convergent infrastructure.

Alas, they are obsessed with robotaxis.

Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by gefhfffh on Thursday February 03, 2022 @12:16AM (#30188967)
Actually, seems like you want a train
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by Yaggo on Thursday February 03, 2022 @12:38AM (#30189083)
Trains don't operate from door to door. The last mile problem persist, unless you travel between railway connected city centres. Not everyone lives anywhere near a railway station.

(I live in Europe which has relatively good railway network, still I prefer my Tesla as transport method.)

Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by robbiepapiere on Thursday February 03, 2022 @03:36AM (#30190107)
There are trains that transport cars.
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by Yaggo on Thursday February 03, 2022 @06:29AM (#30191155)
True, they also run such a trains here in Finland, an overnight trip from south to north (Lapland). The train tickets for our family of 5 plus a car are so expensive (total 1200 eur) compared to minimal marginal cost for using our EV (150 eur), that we always choose the car.
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by shaklee3 on Thursday February 03, 2022 @01:07AM (#30189243)
highways don't go door to door, and that's what they were suggesting.
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by fedorareis on Thursday February 03, 2022 @01:19AM (#30189316)
They were suggesting they want to use the same vehicle door to door with it being automated during the freeway bit. A train would still mean find some transport to the station, wait for the train, ride train, find transport from station.
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by meheleventyone on Thursday February 03, 2022 @02:15AM (#30189626)
Or a train that takes cars, like a Ferry, obviously that massively cuts down on space efficiency but it’s not impossible.
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by caf on Thursday February 03, 2022 @03:12AM (#30189963)
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by dmoo on Thursday February 03, 2022 @02:57AM (#30189870)
Like the euro tunnel
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by AtlasBarfed on Thursday February 03, 2022 @02:05AM (#30189573)
I'll answer that with another piece of prognostication: good highway self-driving will cause massive disruption to the airline industry.

Would you rather do this for a business trip to a 400-500 mile away city:

- fixed time to depart (and fixed for leaving your destination!)

- have to book ticket weeks in advance for a reasonable flight

- no flexiblity if plans change

- pack a small bag

- transit to an airport (parking or cab or whatever)

- arrive a sufficient amount of time in advance

- check in

- go through security

- get on plane, stuck in seat, no/crappy food

- get off plane, go to car rental place

- rent car (not yours, sucks)

- cost: 100-200$, and if you want to bring anyone it's a multiple of that.

- no cell phone, restricted to plane wifi if they have it

- door-to-door is what, 4 hours? Man I hope there isn't a delay....

Or, with self-driving:

- pack your car or minivan to the brim with stuff you need

- leave when you want

- sleep / stop to eat / stop to bathroom when you need it

- full cell coverage / hotspot

- take additional people

- EV cost is like... 20-40$ for the trip if you include wear and tear?

- door to door is... 5-6 hours

If the car is driving for you, it is far less stressful, flexible, much cheaper, especially if you want to take your family.

Trains are a ... bit ... better than airplanes, but still inflexible, surprisingly expensive, won't have your car at the other end, have to haul around your luggage rather than chuck it into YOUR CAR.

When good highway self-driving comes, I will probably never fly anything less than 1000 miles. If I get a self-driving RV that's EV self-recharging at charge stations? Hell I might get rid of my apartment.

Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by HWR_14 on Thursday February 03, 2022 @08:42AM (#30192253)
I don't see how self-driving changes the calculus. Sure, sometimes I'll drive 5-6 hours instead of flying, but that's already the status quo.

Meanwhile, I don't see many people going somewhere 400-500 miles away regularly. Most places seem either much closer or much further.

If money is a concern, you can always take the bus.

Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by flarg on Thursday February 03, 2022 @03:10AM (#30189945)
Both trains and planes centralise assets, services and pathways, allowing for rent seeking and anti competitive behaviour, government and regulatory capture, and by their very nature are anti consumer and pro big business. Hence their dominance and the increasing pressure on self driving EVs.
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by ohgodplsno on Thursday February 03, 2022 @04:41AM (#30190547)
>allowing for rent seeking

You are saying this in a thread about a company that regularly sells features as a subscription and revokes them upon resell, as well as voids warranty if you get it repaired anywhere that's not a Tesla shop. Tesla have entrenched themselves as rent seekers from the beginning.

Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by darkwater on Thursday February 03, 2022 @03:56AM (#30190278)
But cars need infrastructure (roads) which tend to create the same exact thing (big construction corps getting all the cake, thanks to political connections). The scale is for sure smaller but still...
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by flarg on Saturday February 05, 2022 @05:10PM (#30226735)
... the scale is smaller
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by bratwurst3000 on Thursday February 03, 2022 @07:03AM (#30191389)
Lol you describes me. I could fly my work routes but I take the car exactly because every reason you stated
Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by Dylan16807 on Thursday February 03, 2022 @12:34AM (#30189065)
Sure, and let me know where I can effectively vote and petition for extensive trains.

But until they get built freeway autopilot is nice.

Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by dreamcompiler on Wednesday February 02, 2022 @10:49PM (#30188360)
> But right now, I want long distance automation, and I can handle the messy last mile.

Me too, and my Tesla handles daytime good-weather non-construction highway driving pretty well with just the standard autosteer. I finish a long road trip much less fatigued in a Tesla than I have in any other car. (Part of that is the seats. Tesla really sweats the details of making seats comfortable.)

But FSD is kind of a sad joke. Off-highway navigation only works in particular major cities, the car stops at green lights, tries to turn right from the left lane, etc. And Elon thinks that's worth an extra $15k. Nope. It really isn't, at least for me.

Re:Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe t... by contravariant on Wednesday February 02, 2022 @07:22PM (#30186478)
Obviously the article goes into a lot more depth, though in my opinion things could be a bit clearer if they first established if Autopilot performs any differently on freeways or not and then try to see if controlling for any of the other possible confounds has any effect. I'm also not overly fond of their reweighting method, if not done carefully you'll just be amplifying a lot of noise.