You're right but I hate that future, to be honest. I don't really want to buy a Garmin phone to talk to my Garmin watch so I can buy into their ecosystem. Apple watches may be fantastic but there are still better dedicated fitness watches out there and frankly the idea of a watch dictating my cellphone choice (as the Apple Watch does) makes me completely reject the idea of buying that watch.
While I generally agree with you, Apple is putting apple tv+ on roku - it's not a stretch to suggest they would use a similar strategy for fitness+:
https://www.theverge.com/2021/4/13/22381067/apple-tv-plus-ro...
Everyone else is going to the gym because they don’t want to look at another screen, or they want to hang out with other people, or they realise you can’t learn to snatch from YouTube. Etc.
Traditional gyms and activity aren’t going anywhere.
Did you just say 'Crossfit' without saying 'Crossfit'?
'Gyms' without saying 'Gyms'?
I agree, these products realize that the physical movement via machine is only one part of the greater whole... if these companies can replicate the rest of the Gym/CF/WE experience, there is a great win hiding in plain sight.
My friends was. It was a grotty thing in the basement. It was primarily about the equipment. It was a lifting gym. The folk that went there would hang out, help each other, and talk plenty. They all had a common interest: lifting. They also thought people like me in my gym above were posers. That’s fine too.
Not everyone uses a gym the same way. Not all gyms are the same.
Perhaps this won’t be replicated in the digital sphere, but the identity behind “leader boards” and physical aspirationals, which I believe these digital offerings still provide, is an effective means to create community and followings.
Heck a couple great friendships began in silence for months, with strict social distancing before it was cool
first, the market opportunity is much smaller. everyone listens to music (and has a phone nowadays). that's a huge reachable market. only the well-off will pay for fitness+, so you're looking at <20% of everyone to start.
second, music was already in the transition from physical (cd's) to digital (mp3's) to streaming (just waiting for high-speed internet penetration). the fitness market is not in that same transition. it's still constrained by the physical world, no matter how 'social' it gets.
third, peloton's hardware is what makes the ecosystem, not the other way around (which is apple's strategy). it creates a halo of influence around the purchaser through price and product that apple simply can't replicate with just an apple tv, a watch, and a subscription. (i don't like peloton personally, but the market dynamics here are recognizable)
i'd be surprised if fitness+ really takes off. it has narrow appeal, a relatively high price, and little cachet or differentiation. zooming out, apple's "plus" strategy overall strays away from their strength in hardware-based consumer products, and i'm skeptical they can differentiate enough to retain that business long term, whereas homekit, carkit, and the like couch very neatly into that strength, and likely represents durable future expansion.
Fitness+ comes with one of the tiers of Apple One. That makes it "free" to the user. Let's say you only wanted Music, TV+, and the storage (especially useful if you have multiple iDevices in your family and you want cloud backup):
Music - $9.99 individual, or $14.99 family
TV+ - $4.99 (already at $20 for a family here)
2TB Storage - $9.99 (now we're at $30)
So Fitness+, News+, and Arcade are "free" additions if you get Apple One Premier. Of course, you need an Apple Watch to use Fitness+ but you can use it with any garage sale treadmill, bike, rowing machine, yoga mat, dumbbell set, etc.
And if you have the Apple Watch you've already been able to drop things like Runkeeper and Strava for tracking running and cycling.
apple has historically targeted the mass premium customer segment, able to command a higher price and still entice the broader public to buy. fitness+ (and apple one) has the higher price but not the broader appeal. it's just not differentiated enough.
a personal anecdote: i've had apple tv+ for free for the past year and have watched it maybe a half dozen times. the shows are so overproduced to be tone-deaf. they're now trying to buy their way into the market via awards, so we'll see if that turns into any compelling content and moreover, more subscriptions.
apple tv+ is just not robust or differentiated enough from netflix, hbo, disney+, or anything else to be a thing. disney+ goes all-in on family, while hbo goes all-in on adult. netflix has the all-you-can-eat buffet model where you'll be comforted to find something, anything, to watch in a pinch. apple tv+ has nothing like that. there's no brand or identity to form a memorable market segment around.
That's where they end up making money anyways, 75% or so of their revenue is from device sales (computers, phones, tablets, watches, etc.). The services help to keep people within that hardware ecosystem which gets people onto the upgrade cycle or to consider a second or third Apple device instead of just having one.
I don't quite get it myself, so I am not advocating for one or the other. But it seems to be working for her.
I mostly use Apple Fitness+ when on the rower, but iFit is nice in that it is not restricted to studio workouts. There is a far deeper library on iFit, and more variety. Outdoor workouts, indoor if that's your thing, a "Time to Walk" equivalent before Apple thought of it. I don't know if we'll renew the sub or not, but I think iFit gets it just fine.
That being said there are apps that bring this up a level and let you connect multiple products and devices. If one of these apps becomes popular then it's less dependent on what device you own.
We definitely saw this with Nike+ back in the late naughts [0]. Then Strava in the mid-teens, and now Peloton.
Competitive people want to compete with their friends, not just against themselves.
Avoiding this is why Apple made the iPod compatible with Windows.
Spotify is thriving on Apple platforms even though Apple has had its own music products for longer than Spotify has been around.
Some portion of Spotify's success, I'd argue, is that they were the first successful entrant in the streaming space. The product isn't particularly remarkable compared to other options and in fact has some notable downsides (such as its ever-changing-for-unclear-reasons UI) but it's what people know and thus what people use.
It having a free ad-supported plan is also a massive factor, but I suppose that would fall under "lowering the bar".
It is not that Spotify is exceptionally good, it is just the others are comically bad.
I am hopeful Apple pushes hard on GymKit in retail equipment otherwise I think Peloton’s ecosystem will prevail. It just works.
I've only tried online exercise classes once or twice, but there hasn't been much social interaction - everyone's on mute, and a few feet away from the screen and keyboard to have space for their activities.
Or is it more the Strava-style 'log your exercise and get likes and gamified motivation' asynchronous model?
https://blog.onepeloton.com/peloton-community-features/
Leaderboard: Compete with friends/others.
Tags: Like groups/circles, you can be invited/invite on the basis or compete with people in that tag.
High Fives: A "Like"
Following Friends: Essentially their fitness "stream" showing what they've done/are doing.
Video Chatting: Chat with friends while you workout together.
Plus you'll get alerted when a friend is in a class, encouraging you to join them.
https://blog.onepeloton.com/peloton-sessions/
Schedule workouts with friends, compare each other on the leaderboard.
There's also a talent component. I've done everything from spin, to weight classes, to powerlifting for many years when I was younger, and the Peloton trainers are very good. They are good motivators, and they have taught me quite a few warmup techniques I'm carrying to other areas as life gets back to normal. YMMV.
If you're speaking about just the apps and not hardware, again, I don't think they're direct competitors. Peloton's app sans Peloton hardware is basically just YouTube videos... There are dozens of content producers that cater to everyone's style or form of working out. Why pay Peloton $13/mo. just to get into the ecosystem? An ecosystem that was designed from the ground-up for people who make +$100K/yr., so the average American probably doesn't have friends who are using Peloton's app. Apple Fitness+ on the other-hand is designed to work in tandem with your cheapish Apple Watch. The fusion between hardware and software is where the magic happens. Peloton doesn't have that unless you have a spare bedroom + $3,000 to spend on fitness upfront.
Seems like Zwift is Peloton's biggest competitor then?
Also Corona: Outdoor sports is one of the few accepted social activities, at least in some parts.
You look at something like Peloton and your natural instinct is to compare it to other equipment manufacturers, but that's wrong. Consumers aren't spending 50% more of Peloton because a Peloton bike/tred is 50% better than their nearest competitor. People are spending that money to be in the Peloton ecosystem. To work out with friends in Peloton.
So I say to people that Apple is Peloton's biggest competitor, and they look at me like I'm a moron. Because they see equipment and I see ecosystems. I believe fitness will be the next "social media" land rush, and most traditional equipment makers are unprepared (they're naively copying Peloton on features without really grasping what Peloton is building).
PS - Phase 1: Social Media Fitness, Phase 2: Gamification of Fitness (apps/games inc. achievements tied directly into equipment, like the "iPhone" of fitness equipment).