I mean, you're obviously correct, human drivers do idiotic and deadly things all the time. But I think we can distinguish that from the behavior in the article.
Gently rolling a stop sign at a high-visibility intersection sounds like a safe and principled violation. Driving around a car waiting to turn left is a bit less safe, but still a principled or predictable violation. The Pittsburgh left is a (fairly) safe and principled violation.
None of those things are comparable to texting and driving, or ignoring a red light. They're informal adjustments to the traffic code that other drivers really do anticipate, and which aren't nearly as dangerous as general "bad driving".
If you do this yourself, please reconsider. My experience is that drivers who do this (especially at 2-way stops) are watching carefully for perpendicular traffic while blithely ignoring pedestrians approaching the crosswalk that they are rolling through. As a pedestrian, I consider this the second highest threat to my personal life+limb, after left turners who (again) watch for cars and not pedestrians.
To give one example, drivers are required to yield to pedestrians in cross walks and to pedestrians approaching crosswalks while pedestrians are only required to "exercise due care," which is a much weaker requirement. If you want to see how weak this requirement really is, look at the case law. In many cases in which the average driver thinks the pedestrian is in the wrong, the law disagrees and would place the lion's share of blame on the driver.
Is that actually the case? I know that the former is true, but I haven't come across a law stating that drivers are required to yield to pedestrians who are not already in a crosswalk. Does case law differ from the text of the law it refers to?
> while pedestrians are only required to "exercise due care," which is a much weaker requirement. If you want to see how weak this requirement really is, look at the case law. In many cases in which the average driver thinks the pedestrian is in the wrong, the law disagrees and would place the lion's share of blame on the driver.
I would be curious about what case law would say about a collision like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=io_XBK0twtQ. Specifically, who would be found at fault/liable.
Heavier, faster-moving vehicles are typically expected to yield to slower ones, whether on the roads or on the local multi-use path, because they're the ones likely to cause the most damage when a collision occurs.
If you introduce the danger then you should take responsibility for safety.
I did this when I lived in a rural setting and there were no sidewalks or crosswalks. In that case, I'm talking about rolling stop signs at entirely-empty intersections, where you can see that there are no cars or people around. At that point, I'm not sure I feel so bad about it - seeing a person at all is an adequate cue to drive differently.
I don't anymore, though, because I live in a city. Noticing everyone and working out their intentions means actually stopping.
Which, I suppose, is the sort of difference we might get between a self-driving car and a responsible human driver; the car isn't likely to treat stop signs contextually.
It's true that a self-driving car will likely not be designed to substitute it's judgement for those of the authorities placing signage, though I'm not convinced that this is a bad thing for safety, or that the predilection of some human drivers to disregard such signage is a good, or even harmless, thing.
A lot of times, they will be placed as a form of speed control. The MUTCD has requirements regarding the use of stop signs, but they don't appear to be followed most of the time. Otherwise, we wouldn't have nearly as many stop signs at intersections where there is plenty of visibility of cross traffic.
Of the two parts pertaining to complying with a stop sign (first stop, then yield), the second is far more important than the first when it comes to avoiding a collision. You can certainly come to a full stop and subsequently fail to yield and then collide with a pedestrian or vehicle. But even if you don't come to a full stop and do yield to a pedestrian or vehicle that has the right-of-way, you're not going to collide with them.
An interesting thought: what's the lowest speed limit sign you've ever seen?
I've seen 5 MPH in parking lots, but never on an actual road. For official road signs, I virtually never see anything below 15 MPH. I'd be pretty surprised if this was actually the ideal driving outcome. There has to be some intersection at which 5 MPH and a yield sign is the ideal arrangement.
But given how traffic laws are enforced, and how people tend to ignore low speed limits, it's not a very practical arrangement. Instead, stop signs go in everywhere that very low speed limits are required.
(I'm still vaguely wondering whether a lot of people in this thread have ever driven somewhere very rural. Gently rolling a stop sign at an intersection with a mile of visibility and no one else around is not some wild risk.)
The CBC had some nice coverage of this.
You do not even notice the small ones, which happen all the time. How many people cross solid lines? How many people sometimes drift a bit out of their lane? How many people scrupulously follow the speed limit like a computer does, not even accidentally drifting above it? How many people simply screw up the order of operations at a busy stop sign? How many people always scrupulously use their turn signals in accordance with the local laws? (You may use them frequently, even scrupulously, but I bet you often turn them on what is legally too late.) I've been driving through a construction zone all summer. People definitely don't drive "45 when workers are around". They don't slow down when the workers are behind the concrete barriers and a dozen feet from the road, and may drive 25 when they're sitting right next to the road with just a barrel a bit between you and them.
Even a cop tailing you and desperately hunting for reasons to pull you over still probably lets through plenty of violations. There's too many laws for the cop to keep in their head.
Meanwhile, a lot of highway on-ramps are painted with single-lane-width, high-angle merges that are dangerous to adhere to - they leave you making a ~30 degree turn while accelerating into traffic. As a result, everyone starts their merge early in the gore area, matches speed, and merges at a gentle angle.
(The road designers presumably know this, and keep the marked path narrow regardless so that drivers won't attempt to form multiple lanes.)
This is a pretty great example of what I'm describing - I don't think people make great decisions about violating driving rules, but I also don't think it's fair to call safe decisions "inadvertent". Not breaking that law is genuinely dangerous, and people violate it specifically to be safer.
The problem is that humans easily misjudge what they believe to be an empty, clearly visible intersection.
The lesson: just because it's your turn to go does not mean that others will not enter the intersection when it's not their turn. I agree that rolling stops at a 4-way stop are generally safe when you can clearly see that no other cars are at or approaching the intersection. But in my experience, the fact that the other person is at fault has been little consolation for having to deal with a totaled car and a permanent backache.
At the end of the day you either trust other drivers or you don't. You're not exposing yourself to any significant addional risk by making these 'safe violations' than you do driving in general.
Who died defending his right-of-way.
He was right--dead-right--as he sailed along
But he's just as dead, as if he'd been wrong.
I just ran the math, the kinetic energy of a 2000kg car at 5mph is the equivalent of the kinetic energy of a 100kg bicycle+cyclist at 22mph.
I absolutely roll stops, but it's important to recognize what we might miss. My old commute had a series of 5 (virtually useless) stop signs in a row, an arterial with very little cross traffic but tons of 4-way stops. (should have been roundabouts). The routine of the drive, and the necessity to stop, the focus on the stop signs and stop lines, and the almost total lack of pedestrians meant that I'd occasionally start off before noticing the cross traffic or pedestrian. (yes, this is more of a boy-who-cried wolf kind of thing). Also, modern cars are amazingly difficult to see out of-- pedestrians can be hidden behind thick airbag-containing A pillars. When you're moving, however slowly, everything in your field of view is also moving. When you stop, it's much easier to spot objects that are NOT stopped.
Hell, just last week I was making a left turn on my bicycle. As I approached the intersection, I slowed, looked each way up the road several times as my sightlines improved, and just at the moment I committed to my turn and began to proceed, I saw the minivan coming from my left that was on a collision course with me; I locked up my brakes and stopped just in time. I know I looked exactly where the van was coming from, multiple times, but somehow missed it. I suspect, again, our brains are much better at seeing what's in motion when we are ourselves stopped.
I have been running for 25+ years and have on occasion been traveling at close to 10 mph and usually at least 8 mph. So California rolls are pretty much the bane of my existence.
This is primarily because the "roller" may be planning to take a right turn and are looking straight and glancing left and don't even look my way traveling from their right.
I do take responsibility for my own survival so I wear lights, and try my best to make eye contact before entering intersections etc. but I have had many close calls where they did not even see me due to their own target fixation.
Now that I am on a bike more often I feel even more insecure because my speed is so much higher.
If there are any pedestrians around then you don't.
Yes, there are people who carefully evaluate the situation and only roll their stops when it's safe. They make up a minuscule percentage of the population, though. Most people just do it out of laziness or selfishness, and when they do it safely, it's a happy accident, not a deliberate policy.
It looks a lot more insane when you're paid well enough to outsource those behaviors (and liability) to whoever's driving your Uber.
It's like when a company makes a statement about supporting a living wage and contracts out its janitorial services who pay anything but.
Allow me to fill in between the lines:
"What is this, some sort of (mostly still) free country where people are not given harsh punishments for all behavior that prioritizes the individual over the group?"
(sarcasm implied)
"By accepting a modest delay in going straight, the opposing traffic has saved the left-turning traffic waiting an entire light cycle to turn left, as well as saved an equivalent amount of time for all the cars that otherwise would have been stuck behind the left-turning car. In situations where there is so much oncoming, straight traffic that a left turn would not be otherwise possible during any part of the light cycle, the Pittsburgh left can allow a line of left turning traffic to proceed incrementally."
If people just wanted to turn left, this would happen everywhere. Instead, I see it almost exclusively in cities with narrow streets lacking left turn lanes. In extreme cases, it's even personally beneficial for the yielding driver - the alternative is sometimes gridlock that circles back around to them.
None of which makes it safe, but it's pretty obviously common for reasons other than selfishness.
(We don't seem to have this problem out here in California, where every street has at least four lanes!)
Wikipedia does hint at a legal kludge, though - "I judged oncoming traffic to be moving so slowly that I could safely turn". The idea I guess being that it's not a change to driving rules, it's just slow acceleration and a legal turn.
I can't imagine that would hold up real well legally, especially if people are flashing headlights and making an invitation. On the other hand, I've never heard of this leading to a ticket in Boston - it just can't compete with the other violations that happen constantly!
Thank you. I'm going to use this reasoning next time someone complains.
http://www.wheels.ca/news/auto-know-jumping-light-for-a-left...
Although I'm in favour of the law in general, I really dislike the 'stunt driving' name. I'm not sure that many (or any) of the offences covered under the law really qualify as stunts. Dumb and dangerous, yes, but not stunts.
Call this law something else, and save 'stunt drving' for people who drive their cars on two wheels and other related craziness. :)
Yes, people do drive differently in different regions. Boston is the only place where I have had two cars totaled. It was parked both times. The second time the driver of the other car seemingly backed up and smashed into it again.
I love that dirty water.
I've always heard this called a "California stop." Are you in California? Looking for a point of data.
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2015/10/was-california...
Google will find more results.
I feel like this is going to be a huge problem if we have mixed human operated and self-driving vehicles on the road at the same time. If we ever move to entirely self driving cars we could move to some sort of protocol for cars to communicate about ambiguous self driving actions.
It's really common to see the Uber Volvo's driving around, but it definitely causes me to tense up when driving around them. I have no idea why, I realize there is significant risk when around any other car on the road. It's new. Hopefully these issues get worked out in a reasonable time frame, but it is software.
The real issue is not self driving cars, it's poorly designed intersections.
Your comment also reminds me of a proverb to the tune of "bad drivers aren't a problem until they meet".
Sure, one can be that driver that leaves death and destruction in their wake but still look good on paper if the metric is legal and financial penalties since those only loosely correlate with actual bad behavior.
Why exactly would they follow the new rules?
I am curious how we sort this out. Will roads become stricter with cars self enforcing the limits? How do self driving cars know who is next at a four way stop?
There is not a hard law that states speed limit at least in California; instead the law sets 'reasonable and prudent' as the limit, and that lawfully set and posted or legislated limits set forth evidence of what is reasonable and prudent. Driving over 100 mph is separately off limits, however. (I would rarely find that speed to be reasonable or prudent!).
A self-driving vehicle would likely be recording evidence of conditions which could show that the speed was reasonable and prudent given the conditions, which include other traffic on the road.
The basic California speed law is:
> 22350. No person shall drive a vehicle upon a highway at a speed greater than is reasonable or prudent having due regard for weather, visibility, the traffic on, and the surface and width of, the highway, and in no event at a speed which endangers the safety of persons or property.
It is furthered by:
> 22351. (b) The speed of any vehicle upon a highway in excess of the prima facie speed limits in Section 22352 or established as authorized in this code is prima facie unlawful unless the defendant establishes by competent evidence that the speed in excess of said limits did not constitute a violation of the basic speed law at the time, place and under the conditions then existing.
Additionally section 22348 describes a specific additional infraction for driving at a speed greater than 100 miles per hour.
> There is not a hard law that states speed limit at least in California
Incorrect.
I don't know what you mean by "a hard law", but, in California, there is a section, from the very statues you present, that sets a statutory maximum limit.
The complication, being that there are three maximum speed limits in California: 55mph, 65mph and 70mph, depending on the scenario.
CVC §22349 sets a maximum speed limit of 65 mph throughout the state (except for the 70 mph limit on some freeways).
CVC§22349(a) reads: Except as provided in Section 22356 [70 mph on some freeways], no person shall drive a vehicle upon a highway at a speed greater than 65 miles per hour.
The CVC§ 22356 referred to above allows a 70 mph speed limit if justified by an engineering and traffic survey where a 65 mph limit would otherwise be applicable.
Try arguing the 22350 while you have been cited the §22349 on a ticket. Not going to fly regardless of what one might read on websites online.
From an implementation perspective that sounds like a lot of overhead just to let Californians drive fast.
So it's not a 49/1 rule.
And, in any case, 100% of US jurisdictions prohibit driving at a speed above the safe and reasonable speed if that is lower than the posted and/or statutory limit, so you need to be able to determine what is safe for conditions anyway; it's just a minority of states where that is a relevant determination when the results are above the posted limit.
It's easy to insult design but very rarely are intersections, especially in Pittsburgh, easy to design.
The bigger one is to make sure that the next traffic signal down the road is also green. To avoid traffic piling up on an intersection because it has nowhere to go. Of course, this should also depends on the amount of traffic.
Any city can in theory build systems where traffic that wants to go to empty roads gets more green and any traffic that wants to go to full roads gets less green.
Honestly, I'm amazed urban traffic is as good as it is, since the core problems are usually irreducible. (i.e. more people want to go to a place than fit there.) A quick look at gridlock in cities where traffic signals aren't carefully planned and widely respected shows just how bad things can get.
(Suburban traffic is another story, but that mostly seems to be about overbuilt roads with no actual planning at all. My hometown has a couple of intersections that literally don't function - you can get caught at a permanent red light.)
Err... I modeled traffic.
The possible solution would be roundabouts and yield signs, but that would be expensive, require redesign, and we humans pretty much suck at roundabouts.
So, these things are very much fixable given sufficient priority and resources.
Pittsburgh isn't flat, many times it is not "move this road." It's bore through this mountain, build this bridge, fix the drainage issues around this creek, etc. and fixing intersections almost always leads to more issues downstream.
Driving on highways is easy, and solving that is still valuable, but it's going to be amazing to see these things work in situations like those.
:(
There's no better realization of distributed peace. Who is the self-serving person who thinks they are entitled to travel to Paris and drive around without understanding the cultural norms of their unspoken driving rules?
Is it a reality? Sounds like conjecture to me, and the fact that many humans are killed in traffic fatalities certainly suggests otherwise.
Any other such commonly observed violation would probably have to be studied to answer the question - and given humans' tendencies to take on a fairly uniform level of risk no matter what the rules are, I suspect the question may need to be "does this keep the risk level constants while increasing throughput" rather than "does this reduce risk".
So ... it's plausible both ways so far as I can tell.
Who is causing the danger of driving the maximum legal speed.
Also, it's rare that all of the traffic flow is above the maximum legal speed. The ones speeding then cause the differential, which is the danger.
The fault is not with those not keeping up. But rather with those breaking the law because it's convenient.
The fundamental question is who is at fault for the differential in speed (i.e. that which increases risk of injury/death with an accident)?
The answer is the person who breaks the law and the one who does so as a precaution to themselves (i.e. following the flow of traffic). An accident by this group disproportionately affects those obeying the law.
So I see three groups.
1. The speeder. 2. The law abiding citizen. 3. The person who is aware of their surroundings and adapts.
Ethically between 1 and 2, 2 has the upper hand. 3, when driving with 1 increases risk to 2. But if 3 joins 2 they increase risk to themselves and to the larger group 1.
Absolutely. I went into some details here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15495904
You also have to weigh the lives against the value of the time saved -- the whole reason those norms exist. There's no way it comes out in favor of the deaths.
Let's try and ballpark whether it's worth it to speed 5km.
Roughly 410 billion miles driven yearly by the French.
The average speed of a journey in France is ballpark 60km/hr
Average salary is 36k in France with a 1450 work hours a year for €25/hr.
Putting it all together we get €0.42/km or €170B.
Now suppose that everyone always drives 5km over the limit bringing that average to roughly 65km/hr or €.38/km or €156B for a ballpark €14B in savings.
Say you can save 10% of those deaths by driving the speed limit which is extremely generous. I would take odds that not even 1% of the deaths could be traced to speeding 5km over but let's pretend. Even then each life saved still costs €400M.
Is it worth it?
But the intent is not always sufficiently appreciated.
Case in point, urban speed limits at 50Km/h in EU or 35MPH in US. For most drivers (me included), they feel terribly slow and overly precautious. Yet the intent has to do with stopping distance. In those areas, you should be prepared to come to a full stop on a very short notice because a child/dog/ball could be darting out in front of you with zero notice. Not only that but the cars behind you should also be able to stop. Whenever you're driving at 45 in a 35 zone, keep that in mind: not only you need to be ready to slam on your breaks but you must have enough distance with the vehicle in front of you, should they need to slam on their brakes.
Most people only consider the "happy path" scenario, not the "error handling" one.
Let me take a thougher position. The value society gains by upping the speed limit on a major road will quickly outpace the value of the lives lost due to accidents. It's just that the injuries and deaths are more visible.
The evidence should be that almost everyone drives at the faster speed anyway and 35mph roads aren't death traps.
This is self evidently not true though. Humans are terrible drivers, and the road would be safer if all of those people who are unsafely not following the rules instead followed them.
The reality of the world that we live in is one of terrible drivers that get into lots of accidents.
Exactly. This is why the speed limit on highways is always min("one or two under the misdemeanor speed in this state" "as fast as conditions allow").
This is the part humans (who almost invariably overrate their abilities at everything, especially driving) are really bad at determining.
Anyone licensed to drive in France, actually. The requirement is that they understand the traffic laws and regulations.
I live in Paris, and although I do not drive I have the impression that most drivers here are extremely inconsiderate. As an example, there is a crossing which is constantly congested with buses and lorries stuck in the middle here. This is mainly because nobody respects the rules or priorities. When an officer comes in to control the traffic instead of the lights, it gets "magically" cleaned up and the circulation is fluid.
'We'll all just avoid making any mistakes' is a really unwise attitude anywhere, but particularly when driving a car.
You are actually providing an example that the Parisian way of doing things is not as benignly efficient as you suggested in your first post.
The fact that you can not change lane without forcing is a normal consequence of the increase of the traffic. I think the unwritten rule is that people should not turn on flashing lights too early before acting. The better communication of the intents and a fair level of trust that other drivers will understand it (and not try to block you) makes driving a lot easier (in Paris).
A bunch of highly nuanced rules like this seems very fragile. If you are driving in this manner, you have a responsibility to be alert for things breaking.
The facts show that whatever the parisians are doing is definitely the wrong way to do it, and should be changed.
Not so simple.
The rules are created via legislation affected by lobbying.
The AAA for decades have been lobbying to keep speed limits low.
In the perfect world, speed limits would be informed by the 85% percentile speed of engineering surveys.
In reality, it's much different.
If a large number of drivers are driving at a speed higher than a prima facie speed limit, the speed limit could actually be low, in which case, the drivers actually following the prima facie speed limit are creating a hazard to the flow of traffic.
One of the things you learn living in France is a sense of the rules that make no sense and that everybody is probably disregarding, and the ones that are actually useful and probably enforced.
Always smile to a clerk. They will tell you which mandatory paper is not mandatory and which rule you can break. They will also tell you which rule the state is incapable of following and how to get around it.
Try driving in Asia and get back to me.
(Disclaimer: I'm hard line traffic law follower.)
Second, we're not going to replace all cars with autonomous cars overnight, so autonomous cars need to be able to deal with unpredictable human drivers, even if only temporarily.
Thirdly, in my experience, it is oftentimes the overly cautious driver that causes more accidents than anyone else. If the self-driving cars are emulating the people who do the exact speed limit on the highway in the left lane, this is not a good thing because the deviation from the established norms of any given highway is the best indicator for where accidents are going to occur.
It's really weird that you use driving the speed limit in the left lane as an example of dangerous rule-abiding behavior. That's against the rules in most jurisdictions, and definitely should be in any where it's not.
I agree that it's possible to break the rules safely. Rolling a stop sign in a situation with good visibility or exceeding the speed limit by a bit is perfectly fine. I agree that humans sometimes break the rules safely. But I disagree with the statement that humans violate the rules in a safe and principled way. When humans break the rules, it's almost never based on any principle besides sloth or selfishness, and while humans do break the rules safely sometimes, it's almost always safe by accident.
The larger point that autonomous vehicles need to not be slaves to the rules is a good one. But humans are not the model to emulate!
You weren't quite that clear about it in the first post, the rolling stop sign with good visibility was my first mental picture while reading, so I apologize for the misunderstanding. That being said, all of these maneuvers you're talking about could easily cause an accident whether the other vehicle was AI driven or not, so I don't see how it's relevant to the topic at hand: that corner cuts and slights which are technically violations but not inherently unsafe need to be predicted and handled by the self-driving car.
> It's really weird that you use driving the speed limit in the left lane as an example of dangerous rule-abiding behavior. That's against the rules in most jurisdictions, and definitely should be in any where it's not.
Again this was my mental picture, the idea of a robot driving according to the letter of the law reminds me very much of the sort of people who cruise at speed limit in the passing lane, just for different reasons.
> I agree that it's possible to break the rules safely. Rolling a stop sign in a situation with good visibility or exceeding the speed limit by a bit is perfectly fine. I agree that humans sometimes break the rules safely.
Agree.
> But I disagree with the statement that humans violate the rules in a safe and principled way. When humans break the rules, it's almost never based on any principle besides sloth or selfishness, and while humans do break the rules safely sometimes, it's almost always safe by accident.
I would assert that the times they break them safely is not always safe by accident. Every given decision in driving is a balance of risk and reward, the reward more often than not arriving at one's destination faster, and that's where the majority good decisions come from. The bad ones are often not decisions of R&R but of distractions, as you point out like texting, or worse, inebriation. I'm not arguing human drivers are better: I'm merely trying to say that the article is, I feel, attempting to demonize people for driving like people drive, and saying self-driving tech needs to be able to handle the unpredictable nature of human drivers, just as I did on my commute earlier today, if it's going to be a mainstream technology.
Of course autonomous cars need to predict and handle sloppy human driving. But that's not what the article is talking about. It's talking about programming the cars to break the rules "in a safe and principled way" the way humans do because humans will expect it. I don't even have a problem with programming the cars to break the rules in a safe and principled way. Where I have a problem is when the article points to humans as a model because that's what they do. It's not.
> Every given decision in driving is a balance of risk and reward....
This is probably the center of our disagreement. Every given decision should be a balance of risk and reward, yes. In reality, for 99% of drivers, every given decision is a balance of reflex, selfishness, and vague remembrance of rules they learned 30 years ago and forgot 29 years ago.
It's true that safely breaking the rules is not always an accident. It's merely an accident 99% of the time.
There's a busy intersection near my house which I cross on foot fairly often. Cars routinely turn right on red without stopping first. Every time I cross that street, I have to carefully watch the oncoming cars until it looks like they're going to stop, because if I just start walking when the walk sign comes on, I will get hit. These drivers aren't risking my life because they're balancing risk and reward. They're doing it because they want to beat traffic from the other road and are too clueless to understand that what they're doing is dangerous.
Again, I have no issue with programming autonomous cars to accommodate flawed human drivers, or even with programming them to deliberately break the rules in cases where it's a net gain. I merely object to the proposal that humans are the model to follow in that respect.
In my driver's ed course, it was explicitly covered that police will often not pull you over for doing 5 mph over the limit. If we're training drivers to casually break the law, then it's only logical we'd be doing the same thing to self-driving car AI.
The author of the article has not said those words. They were said by Karl Iagnemma who is a scientist from MIT, and the CEO of a company that makes software for self-driving cars.
It didn't sound like something a reasonable person would say so I tried to track down the context of the quote, and it seems to be a mystery. My guess is that the quote came out of a larger interview, and it obviously meant to highlight the fact that 'standing out' by following rules in a way that other drivers are not expecting you to, makes things much more worse. That makes sense to me, as opposed to your interpretation.
I'm coming up to an intersection and I see someone edging out, so I slow down and prepare to panic stop in case they pull out in front of me. They don't, so I proceed. That's good defensive driving, but a failed prediction.
I see someone with their signal on in the next lane, so I back up and give them some room to move over. Turns out they just forgot their signal was on. Again, good defensive driving, but an incorrect prediction.
People don't break the rules in anything like a consistently predictable manner. Not around here, anyway.
Noticing some behavior and thinking of all the possibilities is not predictive behavior. What you are doing is making a reaction based on the action by another driver.
In one case, you notice a driver edging forward, so you slow down in case they pull down. If you were predicting that they were going to pull out, you wouldn't just slow down, you would slam on your brakes.
In another case, you notice a driver with a blinker on, so you assume they are changing lanes, and slow down to give them additional space. This one is closer to a prediction, but in reality a driver would notice the blinker before they get anywhere near the car in question and would have plenty of time to tell whether it's a forgotten blinker or a conscious attempt at changing lanes. Or they don't see it from far away because traffic is moving very fast and/or is very heavy, so they just keep going making the prediction that the car w/ a blinker on will wait until the lane is clear (aka after you pass them) to change lanes.
Thanks, it's nice to start my morning with a good laugh.
Maybe the author lives in some magical wonderland filled with good drivers, but this is not what I observe at all. People drift out of their lane for no reason. They careen past the stop line because they can't be bothered to push the brake pedal a bit farther down. They refrain from signaling because they just don't care. They blast through stop signs and red lights without heed to traffic or pedestrians. They brake spontaneously in the middle of a fast moving road. They drive fast in dangerous conditions and slow in safe conditions. They spend half their drive texting because they think they're the one person on the planet who is able to safely text and drive. How is any of that safe or principled?