stale2002
The alternative is don't invest in them?
Or, if you are this certain that they are going to fail, then short their stock. You could make millions.
You better hope it is. Because if peace never happens, Israel is going to win and all the palestinians will be kicked out, and the rest of the world isn't going to do anything about it.
I mean, people are already calling it a genocide, so if peace isn't possible, just kicking out all of the palestinians seems like the most likely outcome here. And the more fighting that happens, the more arabs will die for nothing.
Because the countries are working together quite well right now, there is significant economic benefit to peace, and there is little to gained from controlling wide swaths of empty land, when peace and trade is much more profitable. Occupation is expensive and if its possible to maintain strong economic relationships that is much more mutually beneficial then the nonsense that you propose.
No actually. They would rather fight till the end than be ethnically cleansed (the vast majority of people being born there). They will never do that, and it would require military action to get anywhere close to that.
At which point it brings us back to the fact that they have a modern military and nuclear weapons, so military action won't work.
> What they do next is not my concern
Well, if peace isn't possible what would almost certainly happen is that most of the Palestinians will be kicked out. I mean, if it is that or them being kicked out, like what you propose, obviously they will fight to win.
> Nothing short of that is a peaceful solution unfortunately.
Oh I fully agree that the arab population isn't going to stop fighting. What is almost certainly going to happen is that peace won't happen and Israel will simply Win The Conflict, by exporting most of the gazan population.
I mean, the rest of the world is barely doing anything against them. They have little reason not to at this point, if peace isn't possible.
Which is sad, but hey. Thats war. It is unfortunate though just how many arab lives have been scarificed for nothing though, failing to achieve an impossible goal. Impossible because Israel is never going to let itself be destroy nor ethnically cleansed, and the rest of the world is barely doing anything against it, and, you know that modern military + nuclear weapons.
> And if they want to use nukes over such an insane point
Nukes would only be used in the case of a military invasion that seriously threatens them. If its just trade embargoes, and local militant conflicts, Israel would simply weather the storm, and/or kick out all the palestinians if they don't stop throwing their lives away for nothing.
> then the world far outnumbers
The rest of the world isn't doing shit right now dude. And the point is that no invasion is going to happen of Israel, precisely because of the nuclear weapons. Nobody is going to nuke anyway, nor will any other countries take action, and if the palestinians keep fighting for nothing the end result is that they will probably just be kicked out pretty soon.
Nobody is going to nuke people over trade.
But, if the only thing that happens is that there are trade sanctions, well seeing as Israel considers changing up their country's demographics an existential threat, well it isn't going to end the state of Israel and nothing short of military action will cause that to happen.
Its certainly possible to motivate Israel to make some changes, but its not going to let itself be destroyed, nor will it ever accept 10 million immigrants into the country, and there would have to be military action to every make that happen.
The point being, Israel isn't going away. Its not going to be destroy. And if it was every a real threat, well they'd use the nukes.
Peace is certainly possible though. If the only thing you want is for both the existing middle east militant groups and Israel to stop fighting each other, and everyone exists where they are today, then great that peace is absolutely possible.
Whatever the government is of Egypt, it seems quite clear that peace is possible. There is no war with Egypt. Egypt is getting paid a bunch of money. Israel's army is not marching on the capital. It seems like they are at peace.
So the point stands that peace is clearly possible, such as the clear peace that we see between Egypt, Jordan, and Israel.
They aren't going to massively change their demographics. They will never agree to that, and they would have to be invaded to achieve anything close to that. Which brings up back to them haveing 100+ nuclear weapons.
This goal of destroying israel, or massively changing their demographics has caused hundreds of thousands of arabs to die, over and over again, wasting on a doomed goal, seeing as Israel has a modern military and nuclear weapons that they would absolutely use if their military was at risk of being defeat.
The actual peaceful solutions look something like Jordan or Egypt, which are perfectly able to be at peace.
Oh great proving my point. They get to be at peace and get paid money to do so. Looks like a good deal all around. I guess peace is possible with the surrounding countries after all right?
The US government is perfectly able to make peace with countries like Egypt and Jordan. Because those countries aren't funding proxy groups to destabilize the region.
As soon as Iran stops shooting missiles at tankers and stops funding militant groups, peace would be achieved.
Its called mutually assured destruction bro. Every country in the world would use their nukes if they were actually under threat of destruction.
Thats the point of having nukes. For them to be used as a deterent against collapse.
> All the more reason to check
They have the nukes already dude! They aren't going away. They aren't going to be destroyed. And the nukes don't disappear just because funding stops going to them.
The point being, the destruction of Israel would just result in all of their enemies being destroyed along with them, so you better hope it doesn't happen.
The militant groups obviously. If peace isn't possible of course Israel is going to play to win.
Israel was perfectly able to make peace with Egypt and jordan, for example, and they aren't invading them.
How wonderful then! You should be happy to know that the AI companies are releasing information for free for all to collaborate on then!
> What, precisely, did the mathematics 'oligopoly' gatekeep
Well what they are trying to do is convince the AI companies to stop releasing all of their findings. Because they are upset that other people are able to do their job better than they are. Its the classic gatekeeper move.
> There's very little money
Oh there is much more than money to silly games like these. Instead, clout and the admiration of their peers, in this tiny insular group for sure, is what most of these people are so desperate to acquire.
Fame (well... relative.... in their subgroup) and admiration of their peers is a much stronger motivation factor for humans than mere money.
> but that same system you disdain
I don't distain anyone who is willing to get with the times. My distain is held out only for those who want to prevent the rest of the world from using the latest tools to achieve real results. If a mathmatician simply doesn't care and isn't wineing about all this AI stuff, I have no issue with them.
You missed the perfectly reasonable 3rd option. Iran could stop shooting missiles at oil tankers, stop funding proxy groups, and make an arrangement for peace.
We both know though, that they are unwilling to do that. Because peace was never their goal. Instead, they wanted to achieve regional hegemony, and funded proxy groups to do that. But whatever, look how well that worked out for them.
Sure, if taking out the regime is the only pathway to stop Iran from continuing on its current path, then the USA is of course going to try that. But if there was an actual path the peace here, where Iran simply stopped its attacks, things could get back to normal fairly quickly.
If Iran stopped funding Hezbollah then real peace could have been achieved.
You are going to go back a whole 70 years to make your point? Isn't it time to get over it?
All the surrounding governments are at peace with everyone else. Iran could have had the same thing if it wanted. All it had to do what stop funding proxy militant groups.
As I just said before, if this was their only goal, they could have had it decades ago by choosing peace instead of funding proxy milita groups en mass.
The fact that they fund all they proxy groups shows that actually yes they have other goals beyond surviving (They they are quickly failing to achieve as their proxy groups get dismantled), and they are actually willing to risk war and risk their survival to attempt to achieve them.
No it wasn't. If Iran's only goal is to survive then it would have made peace with the USA and surrounding Middle Eastern territories decades ago.
This whole war is happening because Iran had great political ambitions than just thriving on its own.
Iran has been funding proxy terrorist groups for a long time now, specifically because it is trying to achieve larger goals than just surviving.
And on those fronts, well those proxy groups have taken a ton of damage and aren't long for this world.
Quite the opposite. The mathematicians are the monopolists who are upset that new-comers are able to do their job better than them, and even worse, they are giving it away to the world for free!
The horror! People giving knowledge to the world for anyone to use freely! Won't someone think of the oligopoly that was coordinating to make sure each of the gatekeepers get their slice of the pie?
If we want to talk about "consenting parties" well me decompiling your code and selling it to a 3rd party is consensus, and infringing on IP rights.
The fact that they weaponize the government against me sharing code is a handout given to a group that doesn't deserve it.
What I care about is consumers, not the protectionist racket.
If they don't like it, well there are tons of indie game studios who are taking advantage of the lastest technology to build good games.
Additionally, IP rights are already way too strict, and with technology we don't need nearly as much investment into it to make games. Productivity is massively improving. Huge R&D simply isn't needed anymore.
> Do you have any concrete proof that game decompilation efforts influenced any "mainstream" models?
Yeah tons of games have been decompiled recently. Its a big viral thing now.
Companies never want to be regulated. Almost by definition. Thats why we have a government to force them to follow the law.
If IP rights are weakened by this, and its easier for competitors to reuse other people's code/innovations, then that sounds awesome to be, TBH!
> is not going to be viable for a whole swath of online-only game studios
If there is demand from players to play these types of games then someone will make them.
Its only getting easier to make games, after all. I'm not too worried about the dinosaurs losing their edge.
Society is improved one issue at a time, and if you sit around waiting for the revolution to come, you will end up like the socialists who never win any elections and achieve nothing for decades.
No, we do not need to overthrow all of capitalism overnight, or solve "democracy", or whatever it is that you are advocating for, before we take any action to improve society.
That is code for "just don't do anything except LARP and complain, and attack anyone who actually is accomplishing things". Its a useless philosophy.
Sure they will. They can be forced to by the government which is society's monopoly on violence.
> but we have to be realistic.
No we don't. We can just force companies to do it, using the threat of the law.
Thats great! So in other words it should be perfectly fine for AI to solve all of the supposedly useless math problems so that it might possibly be useful later. No need to worry about the mathematicians hobbies here.
So the magic then? If this is your argument just say "I think AI will be able to invest magic overnight".
See, you said all of these things and then slipped into the sci-stories.
What about, instead of that, grey goo physics defying replicating nano bots aren't real?
People do this thing where they think that if you just linearly increase inteligence that this lets you invent magic overnight, and thats simply not how it works.
The magic takes a lot of time, energy, and resources, if it were even to be possible at all.