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Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by unquietwiki on Thursday January 16, 2025 @11:59AM (#42727815)
A lot of single-family housing burned in the fires. For the sake of density, we need to put in more apartments, and ones that don't cost $3-4K/mo for a 1-2 bed. Metro is expanding ahead of the Olympics, and Waymo services a decent chunk of the city (not the burned areas though); you could go with less parking to save costs, but a lot of folks have roommates, so you end up needing double the parking, and that clogs up the streets... there are no easy answers to this situation, unfortunately.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by calciphus on Thursday January 16, 2025 @12:13PM (#42728013)
LA is one of the most car-centric cities I've ever seen. "we can have less parking" would require a fundamental shift in culture.

Doing it right after a major fire where people are alive precisely because they were able to put themselves and a few belongings into their personal vehicle and go where they could shelter with friends or family is bordering on an impossible ask.

Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by whimsicalism on Thursday January 16, 2025 @12:46PM (#42728417)
in 10 years time self-driving will be all over LA, we should build with foresight
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by grajaganDev on Thursday January 16, 2025 @12:51PM (#42728476)
I think this is optimistic.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by grardb on Thursday January 16, 2025 @12:56PM (#42728527)
The idea that self-driving cars will be anywhere in any timeframe is actually very pessimistic to me.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by whimsicalism on Thursday January 16, 2025 @01:01PM (#42728595)
really? i can already call a self-driving car in LA but the idea that this will scale up in the next 10 years is out there?
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by HDThoreaun on Friday January 17, 2025 @08:39AM (#42737393)
Waymo is not self driving. It’s remote operated, much more expensive. People will not give up their vehicle for an expensive taxi service. There are no self driving cars that actually work and there are none on the horizon.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by whimsicalism on Friday January 17, 2025 @10:29AM (#42738547)
it’s not remote operated and it is also not much more expensive and i have no idea why you assume costs will be constant.

i take waymos all the time, often replacing my car, i have never had a single issue

Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by HDThoreaun on Friday January 17, 2025 @10:32AM (#42738589)
Literally so easy to find out that it’s remote operated with the operators taking over on average once per mile. That can’t scale in a cost effective way unless you only use it like once a week. People who need to drive everyday can’t afford it. Otherwise they’d just be ubering everywhere now instead of owning a car.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by whimsicalism on Friday January 17, 2025 @10:39AM (#42738728)
you literally do not know what you’re talking about, source me a number on the “once per mile” intervention - i’ve driven hundreds of miles in waymo and never had an intervention

of course they can scale in a cost effective manner, the operating costs are theoretically the same as just owning a car but they get to amortize it across many different users and don’t have to pay for human labor

Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by HDThoreaun on Friday January 17, 2025 @02:28PM (#42742272)
They do have to pay the human labor because it’s not self driving.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by whimsicalism on Friday January 17, 2025 @04:09PM (#42743261)
source your claims. i’m pretty sure waymo doesn’t even support remote operation as such, just waypoint drawing
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by fragmede on Thursday January 16, 2025 @01:01PM (#42728599)
No need to wait 10 years, Waymo currently operates in LA.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by kristjansson on Thursday January 16, 2025 @01:46PM (#42729211)
In a service area that _very_ purposefully stops before the sort of narrow, hilly streets that covered most of the evacuation zones.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by whimsicalism on Thursday January 16, 2025 @01:58PM (#42729361)
yeah i’m sure that’ll stay the same for 10 years, technology famously stays constant
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by kristjansson on Thursday January 16, 2025 @02:13PM (#42729561)
I suspect you're right, I was pointing out the current limits.

But so what if they do have full coverage in 10 years? We can build apartments with no/fewer parking spaces, and therefore somewhat lower costs. Why do we build those sort of apartments on some of the most desirable land on the planet? Look at the One Coast development on the bottom of Sunset - denser than SFH, plenty of parking, and no trouble selling condos starting at $3-5m. At that's at the bottom of the hill!

Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by whimsicalism on Thursday January 16, 2025 @02:16PM (#42729601)
why should we only build large buildings in places where poor people live? i don't see why these neighborhoods should be reserved for the wealthy rather than mixed income if the demand is there. generally the market pressure for larger buildings is going to be highest in wealthy areas and for good reason
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by kristjansson on Thursday January 16, 2025 @03:36PM (#42730549)
They're not reserved for the wealthy, they're desirable. Self-driving and associated parking minimum reductions doesn't materially change those economics. If you had permission to build large buildings with an ocean view and beach access ... you'd build it with parking and start the studios at $1m like they do half a mile away on Ocean. Build 115% of the units by omitting parking, and you'd probably still sell a studio for $1m, honestly. The demand is deep, global, and pretty inelastic.

Does Monaco have apartments for $300k? Does the LES? West Palm Beach?

Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by thrance on Thursday January 16, 2025 @12:56PM (#42728543)
I don't see what that's got to do with city planning and increasing density.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by whimsicalism on Thursday January 16, 2025 @01:02PM (#42728605)
feel like it has obvious salience around the necessity of parking requirements going forward just like if a rail line opened up near you
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by sagarm on Thursday January 16, 2025 @03:17PM (#42730341)
Plenty of people had to abandon their cars and flee on foot
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by likeabatterycar on Thursday January 16, 2025 @12:28PM (#42728211)
Malibu and the Palisades were exclusive neighborhoods where celebrities and other well-off industry personnel lived. They're not adding low income apartments or execute any urbanist pipe-dream for the same reason they're not bulldozing Pac Heights to install homeless shelters. Not going to happen. Ever.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by mmooss on Thursday January 16, 2025 @01:28PM (#42728974)
It's a bit paradoxical that people on HN believe anything is possible in technology - we're going to live on Mars! - but advocate hopelessness in other matters.

It's just like technology: If you make it happen, it will happen. If you don't, it won't. Some people are working hard, developing the technology, while many sit around saying it's impossible, etc.

Opportunity knocks, right now. There's no guarantee of success. Let's go!

Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by HDThoreaun on Friday January 17, 2025 @08:42AM (#42737423)
Politics is much harder than technological innovation.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by mmooss on Friday January 17, 2025 @01:18PM (#42741511)
For some people!
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by laweijfmvo on Thursday January 16, 2025 @01:05PM (#42728650)
This. It's not like all of downtown LA was leveled and we get to re-imagine it through rose-colored glasses.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by whimsicalism on Thursday January 16, 2025 @12:44PM (#42728390)
the electorate controls the people with guns, so we can kinda make whatever we want happen if we vote for it
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by caseysoftware on Thursday January 16, 2025 @12:54PM (#42728508)
> the electorate controls the people with guns, so we can kinda make whatever we want happen if we vote for it

"Do it the way we want or die" is a pretty bold take.

Are you going to enforce this or demand to have law enforcement or even military units do it?

Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by palmfacehn on Thursday January 16, 2025 @01:02PM (#42728607)
Ultimately this is the basis for governance, including zoning and code enforcement. However, I agree with your sentiment.

You'll notice the loaded language used in the title of the article: "California's future depends on how leaders rebuild". Ideally I would think that the landowners should have priority in deciding what is built on their land. After all it is still at least nominally their private property.

Expect further arguments towards a subjectively perceived "greater collective good" to follow from that point. After this is established, the ends justify the means. In this case, the above poster explicitly describes the means as "men with guns".

Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by mmooss on Thursday January 16, 2025 @01:32PM (#42729029)
> Ultimately this is the basis for governance

That's a myth / fantasy of gun and violence zealots and anti-liberals.

Obviously, to scholars and to anyone looking at the world, the basis for governance is consent. There are not enough guns in the world to do it otherwise. And I've never and I don't know anyone who has ever done something because the government pointed a gun at them. They did it because they are law-abiding people, social beings, and want a fair, ordered society.

Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by Ancapistani on Thursday January 16, 2025 @02:29PM (#42729776)
> the basis for governance is consent

For governance, perhaps, but not for government.

A trivial example: I do not consent to the authority of my city, county, state, or country. I have withheld that consent my entire life, and yet all those levels of government continue to not only exist, but to grow.

Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by mmooss on Thursday January 16, 2025 @04:52PM (#42731391)
You're weird. Humans normally, almost all consent.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by Ancapistani on Thursday January 16, 2025 @05:53PM (#42731933)
… and those humans who do not consent are coerced by any means necessary, up to and including force.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by hollerith on Thursday January 16, 2025 @01:37PM (#42729086)
I don't suspect that OP fails to understand the importance of consent, but I do suspect that you fail to understand the importance of lawful carefully-target violence.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by mmooss on Thursday January 16, 2025 @04:53PM (#42731402)
I understand the fantasy of a world where sociality doesn't exist. Maybe nerds find it easier to calculate, not understanding the social part well at all.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by hollerith on Thursday January 16, 2025 @05:13PM (#42731580)
If our police departments and jails were disbanded and torn down, would that constitute an improvement or a worsening of our society in your opinion?
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by whimsicalism on Thursday January 16, 2025 @06:02PM (#42732023)
always a sign of a winning argument when you call your interlocutors nerds
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by mmooss on Thursday January 16, 2025 @10:17PM (#42733726)
It's not an insult to me; is it to you?
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by whimsicalism on Thursday January 16, 2025 @01:02PM (#42728609)
? that is how all laws ultimately work
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by mmooss on Thursday January 16, 2025 @01:33PM (#42729036)
It's not, except around the fringes. Consent is how governance works.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42729029

Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by palmfacehn on Thursday January 16, 2025 @01:07PM (#42728676)
In practice, yes. In principle, it is a matter for debate.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by Ancapistani on Thursday January 16, 2025 @02:27PM (#42729741)
It may be California, but it's still the US. The electorate are the people with guns.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by piva00 on Thursday January 16, 2025 @12:37PM (#42728306)
Altadena isn't one of those exclusive neighbourhoods though.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by likeabatterycar on Thursday January 16, 2025 @12:47PM (#42728434)
Middle class and minorities in Altadena don't want to raise their families in Soviet-style apartments because some hipster urbanist thinks its best. They want SFH, that's why they live there.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by piva00 on Thursday January 16, 2025 @01:20PM (#42728864)
Using those buzzwords really doesn't invite much of a conversation, even less when it's basically strawmanning from your part. Still I will bite a bit...

There are many examples of places around the world who managed to intersperse SFH with medium-density housing (3-4 stories apartment buildings) so it's not an either-or situation. For example: many suburbs of Stockholm have developed this way, it allows options based on people's budgets and needs, while also creating enough density to attract local businesses so people are not entirely car-dependent for basic necessities, creates third places for meetings, etc.

I'm preaching to the choir though, I do understand you will probably never understand or see it that way given the vitriol you started with. It's quite sad because there are other ways for a community to live that can cater to different needs where mixed-housing exists while also making these neighbourhoods more interesting and livable in themselves.

Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by grajaganDev on Thursday January 16, 2025 @12:54PM (#42728502)
But those celebrities and other well-off industry personnel are now burned out.

The city could issue no permits to rebuild SFH on that land and then buy it for 15-minute walkable development.

Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by ceejayoz on Thursday January 16, 2025 @01:00PM (#42728581)
If they want to be in litigation with angry deep pocketed people for a few decades, sure.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by umanwizard on Thursday January 16, 2025 @12:57PM (#42728547)
You are living in a fantasy.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by palmfacehn on Thursday January 16, 2025 @01:18PM (#42728840)
It may be a fantasy for some, but for those who are derided as conspiracy theorists, it is a nightmare scenario.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by bilbo0s on Thursday January 16, 2025 @12:28PM (#42728219)
Everyone wants to rebuild in accordance with their favorite urban planning theory.

Very few want to give developers the profits they need to match the profits they get rebuilding in accordance with maximizing the return on their investments.

People asking for cheap apartments are just not being realistic. Why rent that square footage at less than luxury prices when the market will readily eat up the square footage at prices far exceeding the national luxury median?

And that’s before we even get to the people who want condos or luxury homes.

You would basically need to make a law that caps how much an owner can make on his land for some of these ideas to work.

Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by ravenstine on Thursday January 16, 2025 @01:04PM (#42728635)
It's amazing how many are in denial about this. If it were so self evident that cheaper apartments were worthwhile to developers in LA, then we'd be seeing more new ones being built as opposed to the luxury megacomplexes that have been popping up everywhere.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by ProfessorLayton on Thursday January 16, 2025 @01:48PM (#42729227)
It's literally illegal to build anything other than a SFH in most of LA. It's no wonder why cheap apartments aren't being built.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by whimsicalism on Thursday January 16, 2025 @12:43PM (#42728370)
building up gets you more square feet and is almost certainly going to be the profit maximizing approach delta regulation in an environment like this
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by bilbo0s on Thursday January 16, 2025 @12:52PM (#42728483)
Sure.

And that’s where luxury condos and apartments come in.

There is no scenario where building for less than luxury returns makes sense in these areas. Renting a set square footage for 1500 makes no sense when I can rent the same square footage for 3200.

And that’s at the bottom end.

Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by whimsicalism on Thursday January 16, 2025 @02:18PM (#42729634)
i find the word 'luxury' not very useful in these discussions. they wouldn't be luxury compared to a SFH in the same area, they would be lowering price.

> Renting a set square footage for 1500 makes no sense when I can rent the same square footage for 3200.

uhhh, except for location?

Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by bryanlarsen on Thursday January 16, 2025 @12:36PM (#42728290)
Multiple apartments should be more profitable than a single family luxury home.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by orionsbelt on Thursday January 16, 2025 @12:42PM (#42728359)
Not in some of these areas. This was some of the best real estate in the country. $80M homes burned down.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by ta1243 on Thursday January 16, 2025 @01:53PM (#42729305)
$70m of that $80m house is the land its on, and that hasn't been destroyed.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by Ancapistani on Thursday January 16, 2025 @02:32PM (#42729801)
It depends.

How much of that location value was because of the views, proximity to LA proper, etc.?

How much of it was due to the types of houses that were in those specific neighborhoods and the type of people that lived in them?

If the "rich and famous" don't return to those neighborhoods and rebuild their multi-million dollar homes, those parcels will be worth significantly less.

Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by whimsicalism on Thursday January 16, 2025 @12:44PM (#42728381)
generally “most expensive real estate in country” is where profits from apartments/condos is highest, not the other way around
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by orionsbelt on Thursday January 16, 2025 @01:04PM (#42728640)
Not up in the hills or on oceanside lots on the Pacific Ocean next to the PCH. I’m no builder, but my sense is, even if the zoning were relaxed, you are at best building like a quadplex. Four apartments are not going to equal an $80M home.

Maybe in the flats of the palisades.

Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by bilbo0s on Thursday January 16, 2025 @12:46PM (#42728408)
Multiple luxury condos? Definitely.

Multiple luxury apartments? Maybe? Depending on amenities and view.

But multiple non luxury apartments for the hoi polloi? Not a chance. I challenge even the politicians championing non luxury apartments to run the numbers and make them work. They just don’t.

People are out here advocating that we make multiple apartments available all under 3K. That’s insanity. The same space can easily be rented for much more than 3K. If I’m a developer, what’s my motivation to forgo that ludicrously high return? Being a good guy? I’ll take the return and make a donation to the boys and girls club instead thank you very much.

Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by rayiner on Thursday January 16, 2025 @12:38PM (#42728320)
We shouldn’t rebuild at all in many of these places.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by grajaganDev on Thursday January 16, 2025 @12:50PM (#42728464)
We should build glass and steel high density apartment buildings with no parking.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by bilbo0s on Thursday January 16, 2025 @01:06PM (#42728668)
Those apartments would all cost more than 3k a month. Putting up high rises in LA is expensive. (Earthquakes, fires, etc). So there is zero motivation for developers to not get the maximum amount of rent possible for a given square footage.

No one has explained why a given developer should rent for less than 3K when they could easily rent the same space fo 4K? Is the government providing an incentive covering the shortfall?

Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by lavelganzu on Thursday January 16, 2025 @02:17PM (#42729623)
Build enough housing & prices go down. It's worked everywhere it has been tried, and it'll work in LA, too.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by indymike on Friday January 17, 2025 @08:12AM (#42737166)
This would shift the political dynamics in the rest of the US as people left for car-friendly cities where they could own their homes.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by HDThoreaun on Friday January 17, 2025 @08:41AM (#42737414)
You can’t get to these areas without driving. Where will the residents park?
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by ravenstine on Thursday January 16, 2025 @12:58PM (#42728561)
The reason modern apartments in LA cost an arm and a leg is the same one for why new houses are no longer starter homes but McMansions.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by seanmcdirmid on Thursday January 16, 2025 @03:21PM (#42730400)
McMansion is a Texan thing. New homes in LA are a fairly boxy west coast style. Box housing maximizes square footage use and takes advantage of the fact that it doesn't really snow in LA so no very sloping roof is needed.
Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by kristjansson on Thursday January 16, 2025 @01:57PM (#42729356)
Density is an imperative for Los Angeles, and big sprawl-y cities generally. And we're building density! DTLA is getting more residential, train stops are getting surrounded by everything from 5+1s to superblocks, Santa Monica is getting taller, ...

That global imperative does not translate into a local demand that every SFH (and in particular, these SFHs) be replaced with denser housing. As you realize in your comment, the damaged areas aren't exactly well-positioned to support substantially denser housing.

Re:California's future depends on how leaders rebuild after ... by seanmcdirmid on Thursday January 16, 2025 @03:18PM (#42730355)
These are the palisades though so very hilly with lots of great views. I can't really imagine building apartments up there, and they are really not very centrally located anyways, not like lower Brentwood or most of Santa Monica.

Even Hong Kong builds mostly between its hills and only on them when really rich people are involved (e.g. Victoria Peak).