Now, whenever something new comes out, my first thought is: “how is this thing going to suck up my personal data and monetize me?” And my second thought is “how is this going to wreck some part of life and/or humanity and turn it into profits for the rich?” You can’t be a techno-optimist anymore. Everyone is working on a similar, but slightly different wealth-siphoning Torment Nexus these days.
My opinion is that "the big sellout" happened when apple introduced the iphone and the apple app store.
and it basically came down to a couple nuances in their policies...
#1 apps have unfettered network access
#2 apple would never approve security apps like a firewall (because #1)
and when a big player sets an example, it normalizes the situation for everyone else.
I think it was seen (or sold) as "advertising will fund everything" just like television, radio and print advertising did in the past.
Except the old advertising was one-way. Advertising today means ubiquitous surveillance and dossier building on every person on the planet.
It's been ~ 17 years of this iphone BS, and now behavior is creeping into every app, device and platform. Look at microsoft breaking new ground in appalling behavior with each software update.
Thank goodness for linux, open software, open hardware and people coming up with great hacks all the time.
Google is far more likely to fit your profile. It’s where ads (adwords and adsense) started to transform the web. First just a few cute banners at the top. And these days some sites just plaster the whole page with them.
Even still it’s hard to pick any singular company that started to make tech suck, they all followed or initiated trends that made things worse from a consumer standpoint.
And every ad-based business has the same underlying strategy: steal from the finite amount of attention you have and use it to extract your wealth.
but apple made it a free-for-all on the device that you arguably own.
for example, you can block google in your browser. web browsing still has choices and is still somewhat democratic. But you can't block google in an app on your phone.
While the past 30 years have absolutely put the "personal" into "personal computer", I'd rather have a personal assistant than a personal overseer.
Modern technology lost this. Everything now comes with a hidden, or not so hidden, tether to various companies. Unlike the PC of the 90s, ModernDevices today are limited. And the limits are artificial and set by the device and OS manufacturers, not set by physics or your own personal skill with the device. Now you constantly have these manufacturers looking over what you're doing, to ensure it's OK with them, and to ensure it's still making them money. And as soon as what you want to do with your ModernDevice conflicts with what all these various companies want you to do with them, they get to ultimately decide, not you. The companies are more and more deciding when the device can be turned on and off, what can and cannot run on it and when. These devices exist for the benefit of their manufacturers.
Companies' paternalistic attitude of "What should we allow users to do?" is what soured new technology for me.
This may just mean that early adopters are now signaliing that they are getting bored with software/tech and the rest of the market may soon follow that opinion.
In the past we adopted new startups such as JustinTV, YouTube, and Instagram because they gave us something we didn't have front and center. Live streaming, video, and stylized photos. Now every social network offers all kinds of media and in different engagement foemats, and the algorithms keep us entertained enough. There's not a whole lot of reasons to adopt something new, unless it's even more addictive.
Maybe the reign of the incumbent social networks will last much, much longer than we initially expected.
Personally, I prefer 720p. It's easy to play on any device, the file sizes are much smaller, and the quality is fine. I don't need 4K for most content and save it for exceptional visuals like Godfrey Reggio's Trilogy or Yojimbo — one of the most visually stunning movies I've ever seen in high resolution. My preference also reduces hosting costs for platforms, at least from my account.
Social media constantly pushes high-res, addictive content, but alternatives like Fediverse exist. After adjusting to these communities, I deleted my X account and rarely use Facebook. On Fediverse, server operators encourage efficient file sizes (and types,) unlike Instagram or TikTok.
The network effect drives people to the few social networks, but I'm not convinced people actually want what they're being given. Repeating for emphasis: I'm not convinced this is what people want!
This sounds way too much - prohibitive, in fact, when cheap all-you-can-eat dubiously-legal IPTV services exist.
On the one hand, AWS quote something similar as an estimate ($12,000 for 10 hours for 10,000 viewers at 1080p) [0]. All but a rounding error of this is paid to AWS CloudFront for per-GB distribution costs and this assumes 99% of bits can be served by the CDN.
On the other hand, Amazon note that this is typically an overestimate because it's unlikely all your viewers will get the 1080p, and they can degrade service to some (QVBR) and pass you on the savings. Additionally, Twitch video content (disproportionately, video games) seems like it should be more compressible than most video. And most importantly, Twitch don't pay the retail price.
Still, it's going to come in an order of magnitude above what I thought Youtube/Twitch etc needed to pay their bills.
[0] https://docs.aws.amazon.com/solutions/latest/live-streaming-...
my source for the part you quoted - apparently this is in their dashboard? it could be a third party site. I no longer have access to a twitch account (as an aside i blame starlink and not using gmail) so i can't verify if streamers on the platform have access to those tools.
And the pricing seemed about right. You can't tell but i am napkin-ing this right now: twitch recommends 4500kbps for 1080p30 on the uplink side, which fans out to 40gbit. per second. So maybe you can get that for $5000/month; or you can get 10gbit links in four places. Receive bits, transcode, stream. how hard
wait transcode?
A certain very large media company was paying a third party $250,000 per month for transcoding, on three 24x7 streams. I'm not saying that spend was necessary, because it isn't, just that it is a pain point.
anyhow that video shows $0.132 per half-viewer-hour (or something) at 1080p - probably 60fps. Come to think of it that's suspiciously close to what i'd guess AWS would charge for transit (which you alluded to, i think) - so this is showing streamers what they would be paying if they self hosted?
It was always going to be something like that. It's unlikely Amazon/Twitch wants to reveal exactly its costs. In general, people complain that egress bandwidth seems to be a high-margin line item for AWS.
So the cloud providers tend to be the one's paying and consequently their legitimate customers pay.
That's what Peertube is for. The original video comes from a specific web site. If the viewer count goes up, the people watching it also stream it out. So a hugely popular video won't overload the source server.
This is not like Bittorrent. It's not distributed file storage, just distributed streaming. It's only a load on the viewer's system when they are watching the video. Now that there are large numbers of users with symmetrical network connections, this is a practical way to distribute video.
I put technical videos on Peertube because there are no commercial interruptions.[1] I recommend it for content which doesn't need "discovery" service - that is, users arrive from some other source than the hosting site.
There's a reason that's the prime demographic. At some point you see the recycled shit dressed up as something new, and realize your "new" was also repackaged poop.
You can be, we're just getting old. LLMs are very exciting! WASI (and a bit older WebAssembly) is a bold idea! Rust is a breath of fresh air and ancient tools are finally being rewritten! Edge computing may change the way we write programs! Hardware is finally ready for VR!
Now, I'm quite sceptical and pessimistic about all of the above. But I think this says more about me than about the world. Younger me would be prototyping a LLM in Rust and compiling it to webassembly to use in his VR game right now. Current me thinks similarly to you.
This just goes back to your grandparent comment: "I want AI to do my laundry and dishes so that I can do art and writing, not for AI to do my art and writing so that I can do my laundry and dishes."
Also, I'm not particularly excited about my day job becoming about fixing up half-broken scripts that other people pump out with LLMs.
> WASM/WASI is a bold idea
I will admit that I have not looked into this a lot, but how is WASM substantially different from other bytecode interpreters like the JVM?
> Rust is a breath of fresh air
Finally something that I agree about.
> and ancient tools are finally being rewritten
But as someone in their 30s who has now personally witnessed several hype cycles, I am increasingly frustrated by the observation that most things billed as "progress" are either "change for the sake of change" or "reinventing technologies that existed decades ago under different names" (e.g. JVM -> WASI or FreeBSD jails -> Linux containers).
To read this and get upset is very bizarre to me. LLMs as most of the public know, is just a few years old. The things these services are doing are nothing short of sci-fi ideas 10 years ago. And were complaining it can't do our laundry?
IMO this is peak first world complaning. Give it some time.
As I read it, the complaint is that it looks like it will be automating the things we don't want automated rather than automating the things we do.
But did the world really change? Are dangerous technology and hype cycles new? Or maybe the world is the same but it is me who have changed? Will current day teenagers recollect 2020s as a golden age of tech?
I am actually excited about LLMs that are entirely mine to tinker with, run 100% on my own silicon, open up and modify, publish my changes.
You can't? Just yesterday, Waymo opened their self-driving taxi service to the general public in San Francisco. We now have self driving cars. You draw a stick figure and the computer draws the rest of the fucking owl. I have an AI that I talk to on my phone and I tell it about my life's bullshit and it guides me through it. It helps me with my writing and my programming. Robots are getting better and better. Pretty soon we'll have humanoid robot companions to help around the house. I earnestly believe that I'll live to see the singularity.
Two routes have been discovered and milked to high heaven -
Financial engineering - this is where if you accumulate more capital and faster than the next guy you win. Add to that globalization ie arbitrage on interest rates/tax rates/forex/labor cost/rent/real estate/govt regulation in generating capital.
Demand engineering - related to capital raising - since attention is finite - who spends more on marketing/ads/pr captures more attention faster than the next guy.
The creatives/engineers/scientists haven't spent enough time coming up with a response to either. So they all end up dependent on the financial and demand engineers.
This will change with time as people come up with ways to respond.
Maybe the watering down of the term started with "social engineering". Engineers build things that do things and/or are built to last.
Honestly if you did make tech work for you, not too much has changed. But yes, since people always opt for the easy solution, more engineers will supply their demands.
Or so is a school of thought of contemporary political economy (read Why Nations Fail by Daron Acemoglu. et. al. )
Example: the cotton gin did not make for a healthier middle class, since the political apparatus barred access to capital (and human rights and civic participation) for so much of the population.
Today access to capital is as easy as it ever was (except maybe '06). The people who take risks are rewarded and there are countless stories of people moving out of middle class.
Below: a chart of "share of gross national income from wages", read this as "Labor Share of Income."
Once a certain segment of the population realized that real estate was "undervalued" relative to the potential for collecting rent on the undervalued property - yeah. rent goes up, wages don't at the same rate, more credit card debt. High debt means you're paying nearly all interest, so that ain't going down.
Oh and does anyone actually remember earning a decent amount of interest at a bank? man, those were the days. 12 month 7% CDs, lol.
Small business owners and others who get much of their income via ownership rather than wages/salaries are often indirectly but strongly dependent on the salaries of the working class to stay competitive.
So really most people are in the same boat when it comes to these things. It just manifests differently.
The middle class owning more assets than working class sure is better off. But both derive most of their income through wages rather than assets.
Since everybody now has a washing machine, fridge and vacuum, the profits fell and the manufacturing just barely sustains itself.
Since the founders / owners / shareholders extracted all excess profits, the companies became brittle in crises, causing them to buy each other until there is just about 1 per continent, possibly 1 in the whole world.
The only way to jack up prices until then, barred burying the whole planet under a pile of planned obsolescence electronics garbage, is to invent new ways to introduce scarcity. Like gating certain features behind a subscription fee.
And temporarily also to lay off as many people as possible, replacing them with automation.
Please elucidate how do you envision next win-win capitalism-based boom. Time savings to everyone have been driving the last one. The only area with a low-hanging time-saving fruit remaining is time on job. Which is exactly the time capitalism seeks to maximize for workers.
You live at the cusp of an inflection point. Something potentially to consider and be grateful for.
The number of people in tech grew in absolute terms. That also means the fraction of people giving back to open source also grows and we are getting better open source software. Many however don't give back, they just take.
Yes.
The friction to create something good and useful is as low now as every. Anyone can create a github account, share source and overnight millions of people can use that thing. It happens here on HN frequently.
Was there? I remember the 90s as an intermittent software dark age we had to crawl out for the next decade until things started to improve around 2010. The unbearable OOP hype, turds like CORBA and Itanium, UML, "Enterprise scale" software development with Java, the first big VR hype cycle, the worst of the desktop operating systems won (Windows), and I could go on and on... there was also the same amount of human bullshitters in important positions.
We are much better off today than in the 90's in that good stuff can actually win traction (at least as long as no money is involved - once there's money involved, the bullshitter will home in like flies on a pile of shit).
&c
From the consumer's point of view, the parent is completely right. In the 90s/early 00s there was a real feeling that tech was trying to improve your life and make it easier without necessarily controlling every aspects of it.
Not to mention the whole SEO industry that pushed off smaller, high quality websites for gargantuan mess of word salad articles.
And finally now the present generation of developers are slavishly solving leetcode to get a high TC (total compensation).
We need a whole new generation of hackers to take us out of this mess.
There are some clues, in the Patron, open source, community. I just hope kids make useful software for them and their friends.
I'm not sure where that leaves today's kids - there's nothing what you can just push a button and a few seconds later be at a prompt and just start typing commands and statements; further, nearly no-one will be impressed with filling a screen with random characters in the same way adults and kids were impressed back when there were 9 computers in the entire school and 4 didn't work.
I know there's projects out there that attempt to capture that magical spark of all of those 6502 and 808X machines just had by merely existing.
Well you can do ctrl shift J or similar in the browser and start typing javascript, or open the terminal. It is all a bit more complicated than BASIC in the old days though.
Somehow money ruins everything. The internet just made it easier for people to extract money from everything.
Not only that, but the rich tend to be the early adopters of these very innovations - that is, capitalism begot these innovations specifically to cater to those able to afford them, and only later (after the requisite infrastructure and economies of scale took hold) did they serve as any sort of boon to the common man. Electric lighting and automobiles are two particularly-egregious examples, and they continue to be examples to this day; it ain't the rich who are still reliant on candlelight and animals pulling wagons, after all, but rather the poorest of the poor.
Millions of companies and indie developers have a platform to make money. This never existed before.
Amazon, Google and Apple also employ thousands of SWEs that make a good living building these services for customers.
Bezos doesn't "make all the money".
The economy is NOT 0 sum. Inequality in itself doesn't doesn't do anything bad. Billionaires existing can be true while poverty shrinks.
IMO it is a low value argument to state that we could fix world problems by removing "inequality". I'm happy to be proven otherwise.
BUT we need to somehow poke holes in the billionaire that don't both totally drain them or leave them unharmed. The holes need to be large enough that they can help the government support the people.
Problem we have is that the billionaires bought all the hole punchers and aren't letting the gov use them like they used to.
Yeah, sure. At the same time a large European country was falling apart in a bloody and cruel war that saw many innocent people outright murdered or displaced.
I don't literally think it was "peak humanity", worldwide (to be clear I was just quoting from this post, https://www.reddit.com/r/OldSchoolCool/comments/1dbsgnc/90s_...) Yes, there were still wars and genocides.
But, as it relates to the article here, the other part of the title, "Enough tech to make life easy, not enough to become life" is very relevant, and that's the negative change I feel like a lot of us who remember the 90s well can identify with.
We developed machines that would do your laundry and dishes decades ago. The current trend is to make them less and less functional over time.
Laundry and dishes is a standin for all things that technology does very well and we appreciate it for doing that for us.
It is just not a trivial problem, to solve.
:DDDDDD
I’m enjoying the diffusion model art. My wife is a creative director and illustrator and it’s loads of fun for us to play with. Besides I have a washer/dryer and a dishwasher.
80% of Americans are happy with their personal lives so why is everyone so miserable online? One should never forget the 1/9/90 rule of interaction.
Technology is fantastic. Today it’s amazing. Without it my wife and I would struggle to have children. Nah, this is the Golden Age.
I think it's fair to point out that this number (actually 78% who say they are "satisfied" or "very satisfied" with their lives) is "near a record low".
https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2024/02/12/american-...
But I do agree, the "miserableness" online seems much greater than "the real world", but that's also kinda my point. So much tech is designed to addict you (i.e. doom scrolling), that I find I'm happiest when I get rid of tech from my life (leave my cell phone at home, go for long walks in nature, etc.) This wasn't the case for me in the 90s primarily because lots of tech was a nice diversion but not a constant negative distraction.
Except this quote is just...internet clickbait. As though technological development is a straight line with easily predictable outcomes. Hell it's even engaging in a bait and switch argument: "I want to art and writing" -> well, AI isn't stopping you from doing those thing versus the reality of creative work for hire -> "I want to be paid to do art and writing".
Setting aside the obvious "when your hobby becomes your job it tends to cease being your hobby" which so many Twitch influencers discover, the headline argument is as though someone has overtly set out to build generative AI and not "done the obvious thing of making a laundry and dishwashing robot" (while you know, also ignoring that technically we have both those things and built them almost immediately - literally washing machines and dishwashers).
The complaint is...well frankly classist as hell. "Why should lower myself to manual labor? Take those other people's jobs away first". It sounds profound but says nothing: Twitter in a nutshell.
It is entirely about the prospect of technology serving people by freeing their time from chores to pursue luxury activities. Instead of that expectation, the reality of technological advancement that AI has given us so far has been to do those pursuits of pleasure for us, while we still have to do mundane, unfulfilling chores in our daily lives.
It's purely a tongue-in-cheek quip about our daily lives. It follows the standard formula for pretty much all one-liners jokes. Some technology- vacuum cleaners, dishwashers, laundry machines- eliminated many hours of work. Instead of advancing this kind of benefit for people, the technology took the benefit for itself.
Setup, juxtaposed by punchline.
For people who do art just for fun, AI is a net positive.
That's why employment is relevant to the quip.
Would you please clarify something? You're saying that we need to be freed from "artistic and creative chores" -- so that we can be free to do what?
For me personally, the highest-quality leisure I can think of is to follow creative pursuits and hone my artistic abilities (e.g. playing a musical instrument, making something with my hands, etc.)
We've had superhuman chess AI for decades and that hasn't stopped anyone playing chess. But if I want to review a game showcasing the highest level of chess play I wouldn't turn to human games. Similarly, sooner or later, if I want a specific picture of something I'm not going to be wasting the time of an artist to get it.
Like you’re missing a huge and meaningful chunk of one of the best parts of humanity.
And how do you think that attitude is limiting anyone? It seems fairly open to me.
Historically, that has just been not true.
I don't think it's a statement about "classic" at all - it's a statement that people generally enjoy writing and making art, and people generally don't enjoy doing their dishes or laundry. Tech used to be about making the "hard drudgery easier".
What it does stop is getting paid for those activities where they are paid for: but then, that's not "unbridled creativity" anymore - that's "corporate says we need a stylized picture of a man standing in a field by tomorrow".
Or it's the exact thing the author in the linked blog here is talking about: what was their actual job?
> One morning, I sat down at my desk to craft yet another press release touting yet another "game-changing" startup that had raised - yet another - $25 million. And I realized I couldn't remember the last time I'd written something I believed in. The words that used to flow felt like trying to squeeze ancient toothpaste from an empty tube.
Literally getting paid to write...just not what they wanted to be writing.
You can talk about how capitalism ruins art, sure, but that's a different topic than the quote.
One of my hobbies is creating art with machine learning tools - so that’s the opposite, it is enabling me to do my hobby.
I get the dangers of this technology but I really don’t see why it would prevent anyone from pursuing their hobbies.
Edit:// oh an capitalism doesn’t ruin art, quite the opposite. Any political system needs art, and in capitalism it’s extremely individualistic art that is needed, which is why I would argue humanity has produced more and more varied art since capitalism exists than ever before.
Reminds me of Death Stranding, aka "FedEx Simulator". The game also mentioned the topic of automation a few times.
With you all the way on wiping out menial work; if we can automate it away that is a win for all of us. But do be careful when talking about the people who do it - they're generally wonderful and making very real and measurable contributions to the wellbeing of everyone else. They deserve a bit of valorization. Not saints, but but certainly up there on the scale of people putting in a good effort.
1. The obvious thing is that technology (and various things we’ve called AI over time) actually has given laundry robots and dish washing robots. Her follow up tweet said of course she knows and that she's joking, but the joke/criticism relies on those things not existing. I kinda think she just forgot, as we all do, as we take technology for granted.
2. Second takeaway was the same as you, with all the free time we have now—and the free time we hypothetically would get with laundry AI—hard to believe we’re really going to start our great American novel.
3. Her follow up was something like “I don’t actually mean laundry and dishes, I mean it metaphorically”. This just read to me as "I just want things that I want. And don’t want things I don’t want. Don't ask me what those things are." We all do, but it muddles any potential wisdom in the quip if we can just swap laundry, dishes, writing, and art for whatever.
So basically a nothing burger about what AI is today or should be, but loud expression of that nothing anyway. I thought it was more like a spitball take (albeit a tad clickbaity and trolling) and had it gotten lost in the wind it would have been fine, but it going viral said something about current opinion.
Nostalgia is one hell of a drug.
I was a teenager during the 90's, and I do have fond memories of things from that decade, but it would do well to keep your nostalgia in check.
Even when we restrict ourselves to the realm of tech, a lot of things back then sucked horribly. Large tech companies already showed their rent-seeking tendencies, there was crazy hype for shit ideas (the dotcom bubble popped for a reason).
In fact, I think that the current mindset of people being increasingly jaded, skeptical, and mistrusting of tech is healthy. It shows that at least some people are learning their lessons, even if this mindset is somewhat restricted to bubbles like this.
To be clear, since I feel a bunch of comments are taking that "90s was peak humanity" quote overly literal (another commenter pointed out there were still horrible wars during the 90s), I'd point out that it was about the expectations of how tech would improve human lives.
Most specifically, there was a very broad belief that things like the Internet would bring people closer together. But by lots of objective metrics (measures of loneliness, polarization, pessimism for the future, youth mental illness, etc.), not only did tech not "bring us closer together", it actively helped rip us apart. And I think if you time traveled back to the 90s and explained those outcomes, the vast majority of people would be genuinely shocked and surprised.
https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/its-so-sad-when-old-peo...
For a while now, I've been struggling with the realization that I may need to just leave this industry entirely as a dev.
The tickle in my brain that tells me that as an industry we have ceased to be a force for (on the whole) good and have instead become a force for profit extraction above all else is getting too loud for me to ignore.
It seems to me that the tech that I've been helping to build for decades has been repurposed and weaponized against people instead of helping people and improving everyone's situation.
1. I saw a Reddit post that was titled something like "The 90s were peak humanity. Enough tech to make life comfortable, but not so much that it had totally taken over the focus." It was a video of a packed mall around the holidays filled with generally happy people socializing in public.
2. That viral quote that was making the rounds, "I want AI to do my laundry and dishes so that I can do art and writing, not for AI to do my art and writing so that I can do my laundry and dishes."
I just feel there has been a growing chasm over the past 25 years where tech is no longer solving pressing human problems (generally, obviously not true in all areas e.g. decarbonization tech) but is more concerned with just rent-seeking value extraction.