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Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by jiggawatts on Sunday January 22, 2023 @09:14PM (#34484636)
Hydrogen is 100% an attempt by fossil fuel companies to remain relevant in a "green energy" world. The primary source for hydrogen would be from methane in natural gas, and they could then sell this as a "zero pollution fuel" while continuing their non-renewable energy business as normal.

If you read between the lines and look at the companies involved, they're always linked to fossil fuel companies directly or indirectly. That, or fossil fuel powered vehicle manufacturers that are reluctant to completely retool their factories.

Hydrogen has a few legitimate use cases, such as iron ore refining and chemical feedstock, but that's about it. In all other scenarios, battery-based technology is vastly superior along multiple metrics.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by TheRealPomax on Sunday January 22, 2023 @09:15PM (#34484651)
I didn't know Toyota was a fossil fuel company, or was owned by one?

Japan is uniquely trying to make this thing work. They have no domestic oil production, and so few coal mines as to basically be irrelevant: all their fossil fuel is imported. Anywhere else on the planet: sure, this might be another way for big fossil to push for relevancy, but in Japan's case, hydrogen would be something that they can produce themselves, literally freeing them from fossil fuel dependency, which is a big part of why they keep trying to make it work.

And yeah, the math says it's physically impossible to make it work without constant refueling, but again: it's Japan. The very idea of "my car needs to go 300 miles on one charge/tank" just isn't a thing there.

Hydrogen, despite this article's claim, is actually perfect for Japan. Any tanker of import fuel saved is CO2 saved both on the tanker's transit, and on that fuel getting burned, but at the same time: it's also perfect much perfect only for Japan.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by jfengel on Sunday January 22, 2023 @09:18PM (#34484671)
They're a car company committed to keeping the internal combustion engine. They are market leaders in hybrid cars, but have been surpassed in all electric. So they're not a fossil fuel company but their interests are aligned.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by kodachrome64 on Sunday January 22, 2023 @09:38PM (#34484795)
A hydrogen fuel cell engine relies on completely different principles than an ICE and would still require complete retooling of their powertrain manufacturing. If anything, their hybrid powertrains are closer in design to BEVs than FCEVs

There are good reasons for hydrogen over batteries, like better range and short refuelling times. I'm not sure why there's a need for some nefarious motive.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by fomine3 on Sunday January 22, 2023 @09:48PM (#34484863)
Fuel cell (and tank) is a different tech but car industry believe that it can be still manufactured at competitive cost and quality in Japan. It's hard to compete with Chinese massive amount of cheap batteries in Japan.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by starfallg on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:38PM (#34485193)
Japan together with South Korea was a leader in NiMH and Lithium based battery chemistry during this period. So that wasn't the reason.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by fomine3 on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:47PM (#34485243)
Make it massively and cheaper is different to developing better one. So they now try to developing solid state battery but who knows will it success.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by PakG1 on Sunday January 22, 2023 @09:32PM (#34484764)
Their various significant investments don't strike me as being committed to keeping the internal combustion engine. Rather, they're simply evolving and the internal combustion engine influences their evolution. But I see no evidence that they're committed to it because they like it in particular. It's just what they've been good at already, and hydrogen interfacing with it may make sense.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by gumby on Sunday January 22, 2023 @09:39PM (#34484805)
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by zdragnar on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:04PM (#34484982)
If you read the articles, his point is that the industry cannot completely switch over to EV production and bans aren't the right solution, considering how rapidly japanese cars have reduced their CO2 emissions.

There simply isn't yet the battery production capability to ban ICE yet. Their hybrids and hydrogen are part of the all-in approach.

Considering that, he claims, cars have cut CO2 by 24% in 20 years, the onus belongs on other industries to catch up, lest you hurt more people for less gain.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by glandium on Monday January 23, 2023 @12:31AM (#34485827)
There also enough power production. To give an example, the Tokyo governor invited people to lower their heating devices and wear turtle necks to avoid exceeding the current capacity.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by SantalBlush on Sunday January 22, 2023 @09:31PM (#34484757)
It was my understanding that they were surpassed in all-electric because they weren't trying to compete in all-electric. Moreover, truck manufacturers like Volvo and Mercedes are aiming for hydrogen, their reasoning being that batteries aren't feasible for commercial trucks. Be honest: your "%100" figure was just made up.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by jojobas on Sunday January 22, 2023 @09:24PM (#34484721)
There's nothing wrong with internal combustion per se, if electrolysis+ICE works out cheaper than battery in terms of lithium/rare earths/whatever there is no fundamental objection to it.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by XorNot on Sunday January 22, 2023 @09:41PM (#34484822)
That seems completely implausible though based on the losses. An ICE tops out at 25% efficient or so. A hydrogen fuel cell is 40-60% and efficient and that's likely to rise. If you're bothering with fueling cars with hydrogen gas, you might as well make them electric and get a huge range boost for free (and way more torque, less maintenance etc.)

There's just no logical reason to try and burn hydrogen in ICE engines.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by shagie on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:28PM (#34485135)
> There's just no logical reason to try and burn hydrogen in ICE engines.

In commenting in another spot - https://youtu.be/AouW9_jyZck goes through many of the engineering and practicality reasons behind that.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by tshaddox on Sunday January 22, 2023 @09:54PM (#34484910)
Wouldn’t ICEs be worse for local pollution?
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by ryao on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:05PM (#34484996)
There is a hypothetical internal combustion engine that burns hydrogen directly. I think that the other poster was talking about that. Unfortunately, it is not just inefficient, but also has a major rust problem. It also would still generate NOx.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by gruez on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:05PM (#34484997)
What pollution would hydrogen/oxygen combustion produce?
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by stephen_g on Monday January 23, 2023 @12:39AM (#34485870)
NOx is formed from combustion in air, from the nitrogen that makes up much of the air. If you could feed it pure oxygen then you'd avoid that but nobody's going to want a car with an oxidiser tank onboard.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by scottLobster on Monday January 23, 2023 @12:53AM (#34485944)
The fundamental objection is quite real: Distribution. Hydrogen, due to the small size of the atoms, requires perfect seals and even then can slowly penetrate even metal containers. Cooling it enough to liquify it requires extreme temperatures and pressures as to destroy any efficiency gains.

Someone has to build that infrastructure, and do it on a national scale, for hydrogen to have even a chance at beating EVs/Hybrid/Gasoline cars. Say what you will about EVs, at least we already have an electric grid.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by xxs on Monday January 23, 2023 @02:43AM (#34486440)
Worse, hydrogen permeates most metals and embrittles[0] them, too.

Synthetic methane produced by electricity is likely still superior to hydrogen with both suffering terrible inefficiencies, at least methane is easy to transport.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_embrittlement

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by shagie on Sunday January 22, 2023 @09:55PM (#34484917)
> They're a car company committed to keeping the internal combustion engine.

A vehicle running on hydrogen isn't an ICE. These are fuel cells.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Mirai

This is an electric vehicle which generates power through hydrogen fuel cells rather than storing it as electrical energy in a battery (though it has a battery too).

> Toyota's latest generation hybrid components were used extensively in the fuel cell powertrain, including the electric motor, power control and main battery. The electric traction motor delivers 113 kilowatts (152 hp; 154 PS) and 335 N⋅m (247 lbf⋅ft) of torque. The Mirai has a 245V (1.6 kWh) sealed nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) traction rechargeable battery pack, similar to the one used in the Camry hybrid.

A question for Japan is "how do you store and refuel a car?" With a hydrogen station, it's a lot like a regular gas station in terms of space, process and time spent. They don't quite have the space for making large charging stations ( e.g. https://electrek.co/2022/05/19/tesla-building-new-worlds-lar... ) which take longer and in turn require more land per car.

There's also the "charging at home isn't as viable". https://www.google.com/maps/@35.1913767,138.6480478,3a,75y,3... or https://www.google.com/maps/@35.1913767,138.6480478,3a,75y,3... or https://www.google.com/maps/@35.1888588,138.697268,14z

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by cameldrv on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:02PM (#34484964)
You can make a Hydrogen ICE. BMW even leased 100 of them about 15 years ago. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_Hydrogen_7
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by shagie on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:21PM (#34485102)
There are a few issues with that car. https://youtu.be/AouW9_jyZck

On the backdrop of the first thing - the part that caught my eye was "Liquid H2 Tank" which... well... yea.

That's a different approach than a hydrogen fuel cell.

I'll also note that is a German car company and not Toyota (or other Japanese car company).

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by gruez on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:04PM (#34484984)
Right, but if they're essentially incompatible with fossil fuel ICEs, what relevance is there to this conversation? The only thing that binds them is that they combust, but there's no clear reason why fossil fuel companies would favor one technology just because it involves combustion.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by numpad0 on Monday January 23, 2023 @02:55AM (#34486499)
They are compatible and relevant, GH2 can be fed to a gasoline ICE through a carburetor with minimal changes.

New productions of existing ICE models therefore can be converted into a Hydrogen variant much easier, without redesigning the platform, or having to burn bridges with ICE and transmission factories.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by shagie on Monday January 23, 2023 @10:04AM (#34489584)
... while storing a tank of atmospheric pressure liquid H2 such that you can't store it in an enclosed space and will be nearly empty if you don't run it for 17 hours and has a range of 120 miles.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by zogwarg on Monday January 23, 2023 @12:48AM (#34485916)
Their main approach to Hydrogen might be fuel-cell, but they have had one-off sports cars with ICE using Hydrogen.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_hydrogen_internal_comb...

I wouldn't completely discount the idea of them pivoting from the fuel-cell in the face of ever-stronger competition from other types electrical generation components.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by TheRealPomax on Monday January 23, 2023 @10:52AM (#34490279)
On a technical note, it's still an ICE. And Toyota's absolutely trying to show that it can actually be pretty much the same ICE but reinforced to deal with the much higher pressures from having to work with compressed hydrogen. But, while there is still internal combustion happening the major difference is that a hydrogen ICE produces heat and mostly water, rather than heat and mostly CO2 (). You just can't go as far on hydrogen mostly because the amount of dead weight required for hydrogen is so much higher than for fossil or electric.

) With the usual caveat that of the hydrogen product itself is currently not green, but as always, putting all the pollution in one spot, at scale, means far less pollution per car than if every car's running its own fossil furnace

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by shagie on Monday January 23, 2023 @11:49AM (#34491340)
For Toyota Mirai - the https://www.toyota.com/mirai/

Is it an internal combustion engine? https://youtu.be/qWMqZgiFhQY

This isn't a one off "hey we can do it" as a proof of concept for a race but an actual production car that you can buy.

> You just can't go as far on hydrogen mostly because the amount of dead weight required for hydrogen is so much higher than for fossil or electric.

To which https://www.toyota.com/mirai/2023/mirai-features/performance...

> Up to 402-Mile Range

> When fully fueled with hydrogen, the 2023 Mirai XLE has an impressive manufacturer-estimated 402-mile driving range rating * and the 2023 Mirai Limited has a 357-mile driving range rating.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by mc32 on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:08PM (#34485016)
Unless they had insight into the future, Toyota has been exploring this technology a long time[1]. They started a developing fuel cell propulsion in 1992 --way before there was mainstream antipathy for fossil fuels.

The more likely explanation is they sought alternative fuels and settled on Hydrogen and so, now, despite evidence and viability of battery electrics, they keep on pushing "their" solution probably with lots of influence from the sunk cost fallacy.

[1] Recall "peak oil", before Fracking became viable, was a serious concern since the '70s and people thought fossil fuels would eventually become unaffordable to everyday consumers.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by danaris on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:33PM (#34485165)
It's less that they're committed to keeping the ICE, and more that they've seen that the market has passed them by with the push toward full-electric (I suspect they thought we'd be doing hybrid ICE-electric for much longer, which they're very good at). Hydrogen is their bet on being in on the ground floor of the Next Big Thing.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by thworp on Monday January 23, 2023 @02:57AM (#34486511)
> the market has passed them by

Sorry? Pure EVs are still below 15% of new sales in almost all major markets. Sure it's growing quickly but it's far from certain it won't peak at around 25%.

A lot of people will probably re-evaluate their options in the next few years, where it looks like prices for charging stations will go up (no more credit-financed hypergrowth) and in some markets home electricity prices will stay high.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by sundvor on Monday January 23, 2023 @02:23AM (#34486349)
This. They've been fighting the EV transition tooth and nails, it really needs to be called out.

I mean, how nice an EV would that new Insight of theirs just released have been? The design is gorgeous. Instead we get yet another hybrid, which makes sense in a good few use cases I guess - primarily related to charger availability - but just puts them further behind on the EV development experience curve.

Edit: And their investments in Hydrogen, doubling down on it along with the Hybrid tech is indeed a great sunk cost fallacy example. Check Toyota's market share in Norway over the past few years for a fun example of consequences.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by runarberg on Monday January 23, 2023 @03:23AM (#34486647)
I’m curious how the calculations work here. I know that any individual battery electric car is better in terms of GHG emissions than any individual hybrid car. However, given the limited number of battery electric cars, and the limited production, battery electric cars will remain the minority of all cars at least until the end of this decade (probably even longer). Now my question is, en masse, since the production of hybrid cars are a lot more capable then battery electric, are we not better off (in terms of total GHG emissions) with as many hybrid cars as we could get? That is, don’t hybrid cars shave more GHG emissions just by the shear number of them?

Of course I believe this is a moot question because we could save way more by focusing on public transit, and simply have fewer cars. After all: battery electric are more efficient than hydrogen, which are more efficient then hybrids, which are more efficient than ICE but transporting 20 people in 15 battery electric cars comes nowhere close to the efficiency of transporting these same 20 people in a single ICE bus.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by dev_daftly on Monday January 23, 2023 @11:17AM (#34490731)
I can't find it right now, but a toyota engineer has actually discussed this. Toyota looks at it this way, especially since you are wasting significant battery capacity on BEV's that don't get utilized daily if the battery supports significantly longer range than daily commute.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by runarberg on Monday January 23, 2023 @12:25PM (#34491935)
I often wonder, since we are in a climate emergency, and we are still increasing our GHG emissions, and we need to electrify so much as quickly as possible. And we have these lithium ion batteries which work pretty well for that, but the production capabilities are limited, so you would think we would put them where we’d get the most use our of them, but alas, most we get is a bunch of Tesla SUVs and maybe a Hummer EV.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by roneythomas6 on Sunday January 22, 2023 @09:59PM (#34484944)
The key here is Toyota is biggest employer in Japan and when you add its suppliers it's even bigger. Toyota very much wants an Hydrogen future so that they can retain those jobs.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by ryao on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:02PM (#34484962)
I imagine that Japanese labor laws are a major motivator for Toyota. From what I have heard of Japanese labor laws, salaried employees in Japan appear to be guaranteed employment for life. The result is that Toyota will not be able to fire its employees even if their jobs become obsolete, so finding a solution that keeps those jobs from being made obsolete is extremely important for Toyota.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by themitigating on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:21PM (#34485101)
I read this analysis last year about why Japan is so behind with EVs. The number of parts required is less then combustion and Japan's government is concerned about maintaining employment levels

This article talks about the filler jobs and how the economy is stuck in the past.

https://news.yahoo.com/japan-future-stuck-past-220130554.htm...

Annoyingly I can't find the source that went into why they are pushing EVs.

Edit: To be clear that was the hypothesis of the source and they presented evidence that the government that backed it, like stressing job creation and the importance of the automotive industry, but there wasn't a smoking gun.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by roneythomas6 on Sunday January 22, 2023 @11:17PM (#34485406)
Yup that is correct. I know what you are talking about. Japanese govt(MITI) is very much involved in Totyota’s future goals.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by danans on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:17PM (#34485072)
> I didn't know Toyota was a fossil fuel company, or was owned by one?

> Japan is uniquely trying to make this thing work

You have conflated Toyota with Japan there. Even in a society dominated by it's megacorps, they are not necessarily the same thing. After all, Nissan brought us the first mass market EV (and yes, they promptly punted on their first mover advantage).

> Anywhere else on the planet: sure, this might be another way for big fossil to push for relevancy, but in Japan's case, hydrogen would be something that they can produce themselves, literally freeing them from fossil fuel dependency,

Any domestic production of hydrogen in Japan would have to be via water electrolysis with electricity, since they have basically no natural gas production. Since that's the case, why not just use the electricity directly and not pay the 40-50% penalty of electrolysis?

> The very idea of "my car needs to go 300 miles on one charge/tank" just isn't a thing there.

> Hydrogen, despite this article's claim, is actually perfect for Japan.

The first statement contradicts the second, because one of the benefits of hydrogen over batteries is that range isn't much of an issue and refueling is fast. That's why the only place it might be viable in ground transport is in long haul trucking in the US.

In Japan, a 200 mile EV would probably be more than sufficient, even for longer trips, for exactly the reason you state.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by narrator on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:43PM (#34485221)
Hydrogen will be the only thing that will work for long-haul aviation and large scale container shipping, in the form of ammonia (see https://www.forbes.com/sites/nilsrokke/2021/10/05/ammonia-a-... ). that isn't synthetic fuel which is ridiculously inefficient to produce from electricity, even more so than hydrogen. Japan being an island, this might be important to them. Zero Avia (http://www.zeroavia.com) is the leader in the hydrogen aviation space currently.

The other thing about hydrogen is that you can refuel quickly. Otherwise, you're going to need a ridiculous number of charging stations to have the same amount of transportation just to deal with charging time alone. Can you imagine how long it would take to refuel a long-haul container ship and/or what kind of electricity infrastructure would be needed for that?

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by danans on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:57PM (#34485311)
What does any of that have to do with passenger EVs?
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by ruchir on Sunday January 22, 2023 @11:02PM (#34485341)
> why not just use the electricity directly and not pay the 40-50% penalty of electrolysis?

because EV battery disposal can be a huge environmental problem. electrolysis is zero waste.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by seanmcdirmid on Monday January 23, 2023 @12:35AM (#34485844)
EV batteries are recycled quite easily. The lithium alone makes recycling worth it, but pretty much everything about it can be recycled.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by ruchir on Monday January 23, 2023 @03:35AM (#34486688)
that's like saying plastics can be recycled quite easily. only in theory - the real effects on the environment are staggering.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by seanmcdirmid on Monday January 23, 2023 @09:44AM (#34489322)
But in this case recycling is straightforward and incentivized enough that it happens in almost all cases. If the battery is still in working condition, it will be repurposed. Otherwise it will be broken down to get at the precious metals and used in a new battery production. Yes, this requires energy and materials are invariably lost, but it doesn’t get more ideal than a battery from a recycling perspective.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by danans on Monday January 23, 2023 @10:33AM (#34490004)
The primary materials in batteries, mostly metals, do not degrade like plastic. Metals are extensively recycled today, unlike plastic. Furthermore, each battery cell has a potential lifetime after EV usage as part of a stationary storage system, before any recycling.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by ruchir on Monday January 23, 2023 @03:36PM (#34494623)
https://cen.acs.org/materials/energy-storage/time-serious-re...

"But very little recycling goes on today. In Australia, for example, only 2–3% of Li-ion batteries are collected and sent offshore for recycling, according to Naomi J. Boxall, an environmental scientist at Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). The recycling rates in the European Union and the US—less than 5%—aren’t much higher."

Until and unless this recycling rate is provably 50% or higher at the time of an EV sale, you should not diss on a 50% loss of efficiency in electrolysis for an FCEV.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by seanmcdirmid on Monday January 23, 2023 @04:17PM (#34495190)
The recycle rate of EVs out of commission is already very high (since the amount of money the battery is worth is high). But what you are asking for is a point where at least 50% of the EVs ever sold have been taken out of commission and are eligible for recycling, which isn't going to happen for a decade or so.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by danans on Thursday January 26, 2023 @04:52PM (#34539397)
> only 2–3% of Li-ion batteries are collected and sent offshore for recycling,

> Until and unless this recycling rate is provably 50% or higher at the time of an EV sale, you should not diss on a 50% loss of efficiency in electrolysis for an FCEV

Most lithium ion batteries are still not used in car batteries but rather in phones, computers, cameras, power tools, and other personal electronics. Should we be running those on hydrogen instead?

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by amluto on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:50PM (#34485264)
This doesn’t make sense to me. Hydrogen is not an energy source — it’s a way to store energy and make it portable. So Japan could import hydrogen (which is not obviously any better than importing LNG or oil), or Japan could make it from domestic or imported energy sources (nuclear, solar, wind, imported oil, imported LNG, etc).

Turning electricity into hydrogen and then into motive power for a car is dramatically less efficient than using a battery, and car commutes in Japan are on the short side, so huge batteries wouldn’t be as necessary. I don’t think petroleum-derived hydrogen is much more efficient, if at all, than just burning the petroleum in an ICE.

So the only way this seems like a win for Japan is if electricity were cheap, battery EVs were not economical, and the loss associated with electrically synthesized hydrogen didn’t matter.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by mordymoop on Monday January 23, 2023 @12:15AM (#34485758)
> Turning electricity into hydrogen and then into motive power for a car is dramatically less efficient than using a battery

This is true —- but the total quantity of battery storage potential is utterly dwarfed by the storage potential for gas, in subsurface storage reservoirs and salt caverns. You can store days worth of energy in batteries; you can store a winter’s worth of energy in gas.

It’s not a matter of efficiency, it’s a matter of quantity. We do not, and will not, for decades, have the kind of battery storage required to support the grid.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by nine_k on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:32AM (#34486134)
Storing hydrogen is substantially harder than storing stuff like methane, or CO2, or even O2.

Hydrogen's atoms are so small they try to pass through the crystalline lattice of metals, making the hydrogen-enriched layer which is more fragile [1]. Your regular polymer hoses are much more permeable to hydrogen.

Hydrogen gas burns with entirely infrared flame, not visible to human eyes [2].

Hydrogen, even highly compressed, is still very lightweight, so storing significant amounts requires either very high pressures, or liquefaction. Liquid hydrogen requires an uncomfortably low temperature of 20K, but starts to freeze into solid state at 14K.

Hydrogen is the most efficient rocket fuel, there's no denying. For all other fuel applications, it's pretty problematic.

[1]: https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1727338

[2]: https://spinoff.nasa.gov/spinoff1997/ps1.html

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by defrost on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:40AM (#34486172)
Which is why the current proposals to significantly expand the global per annum hydrogen production via green solar hydrogen production are looking to transport Ammonia (Three Hydrogens and a Nitrogen) across the planet for use in large baseload generators.

Less storage problems, more options (higly compressable gas, or pure liquid, or "liquor" (dissolved)), and no mucking about with fuel cells.

Just straight up movement of energy (with losses to be sure) from places with an excess of sunlight to those that are short.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by Gare on Monday January 23, 2023 @02:54AM (#34486492)
What's the benefit of ammonia vs. turning hydrogen into methane via carbon capture?
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by usrusr on Monday January 23, 2023 @03:37AM (#34486697)
Carbon capture is hard, nitrogen is truly abundant. That is unless you happen to have a source of highly concentrated CO2 at hand. Which is certainly true now, but won't be in the endgame. Methane (or something with an even lower H-per-C) will surely be part of the picture, but it can't be the mainstay. I'd expect hydrolizer capacity to cluster around storage opportunities (like salt caverns) within convenient grid range from energy sources, large ammonia plants to continually work from that hydrogen buffer and higher-value H2 consumers to opportunistically tap into the same buffer whenever their "other ingredient" is available. That "other" could be metal ores, iron oxide returning from an oxidization energy cycle or CO2 from biomass burning or waste incineration. But there's always hydrogen as a first step, and the (centralized within grid range) hydrogen storage as the buffer that solves the dispatchability problem.

Fun observation: If some of the hydrocarbons created this way make it into plastics that isn't passed back into incineration (or a better form of recycling) you'll have true carbon-capture for the fraction of the carbon that came from biomass. Without we trying.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by Gare on Monday January 23, 2023 @08:27AM (#34488462)
Thanks for the detailed reply
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by usrusr on Monday January 23, 2023 @03:06AM (#34486561)
This. Is there even one power2anythingelse that does not have hydrogen as its first step? Hydrogen storage will be important, as the input queue for whatever step comes next so that only the hydrolysis capacity has to be scaled for being able to take in supply peaks and idling the rest of the day/week/year. But hydrogen storage won't be involved at all anywhere in transportation or distribution of energy (with a few possible exceptions in large very high energy density requirement applications, I wouldn't completely rule out hydrogen aircraft being less infeasible than e-fuel powered aviation at scale)
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by pkphilip on Monday January 23, 2023 @02:33AM (#34486398)
Hydrogen is far more energy dense than batteries. For example: for a 800km truck, the difference can be as much as 2 tonnes. https://www.umicore.com/en/newsroom/news/fuel-cells-battery-...

Also, there are ways of storing hydrogen in metal hydrides at room temperature and pressure. This makes a LOT of sense for people who may want to have an option of buying stored energy - such as those who live in apartments without access to the terraces where solar panels can be deployed.

If these metal hydride storage is used similar to how changeable batteries are used, it is conceivable that you could drive up to a place like a fuel station just to change out your metal hydride storage in a matter of a couple of minutes and perhaps even get additional supplementary units packed at the back of the vehicle if they intend to go on a long journey.

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenrg.2021.6161...

In terms of cost, it is also now possible to use Boron Nitride for storing hydrogen - very cheaply and very safely.

https://www.geelongmanufacturingcouncil.com.au/2022/07/innov...

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by MengerSponge on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:26AM (#34486103)
> not obviously any better than importing LNG or oil

True, because transporting hydrogen is obviously much worse than transporting LNG or oil. Hydrogen is an impossibly huge pain in the ass, and should be avoided if at all possible, because

Hydrogen

leaks through the smallest gaps.

burns in concentrations ranging from 4 to 74 percent.

burns clear in daylight.

reduces the ductility of metals exposed to it (embrittlement).

has shit energy density to boot.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by VintageCool on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:29AM (#34486118)
Japan's plan has been to import hydrogen. Probably from Australia.

Nuclear is unpopular since Fukushima, and Japan doesn't have great renewable resources. The country is extremely land constrained -- and although the "renewables require too much land" argument is silly on the American Great Plains, it does hinder Japan.

Additionally, the solar irradiance is mediocre, and their offshore wind would have to be truly floating wind turbines (which are more expensive) because the continental shelf drops away so quickly.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by throwaway2037 on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:59AM (#34486256)
If you can manufacture pure hydrogen by hydrolysis from Australia solar power, then they should go the next step and create methane (CH4). If you can extract carbon from CO2, that would be a crazy good win. (Probably horribly energy inefficient, but that is the future, I guess.) Anywhere with huge deserts and access to ports can become rich on this path: India, Chile, Australia, North Africa, Middle East. (China has big deserts, but very far from ports.)

People are talking a lot about batteries in this HN discussion, but there are industries that are so much simpler to run on burning gas/coal (steel, petro-chemical, etc.). Japan has massive heavy industry, similar to Germany, that 100% depends upon imported methane. Someone also told me (not sure if true) that the infra required for hydrogen is much more expensive than methane because it is "more leaky". Thus, equipment tolerances are way higher for pure H2 vs CH4.

Last: The "we don't like nuclear" view will only last until the next energy crisis. The current PM (Kishida) is already talking about re-activation. Yes, there will be billions to spend to upgrade existing reactors, but Japan never shies away from infra spending! It doesn't get much attention in the media, but plenty of infra (bridges, tunnels, etc.) was upgraded after the 2014 earthquake.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by cbmuser on Monday January 23, 2023 @02:00AM (#34486259)
Japan’s government actually just decided to revitalize nuclear power and support among the population is growing.

And, FWIW, Japan plans to use high-temperature nuclear reactors to produce hydrogen with very high efficiency.

See: https://www.jaea.go.jp/04/o-arai/en/research/research_03.htm...

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by enslavedrobot on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:48AM (#34486206)
Green hydrogen is made from electricity. The cost of green hydrogen is currently high, but it is dropping faster than pretty much any other energy storage technology. Hydrogen storage is an order of magnitude cheaper (or more) than any other tech. It is expensive because of the cost of electrolyzers/fuel-cells that convert between electricity and H2. These costs are dropping fast at efficiencies of 80%+ along with the cost of solar and wind. If you project the cost declines into the future the economics of producing hydrogen at remote solar wind farms, generating hydrogen, and transporting the H2 by tanker or pipeline are compelling.

Abu Dhabi already sells solar electricity for 1.35 cents/kWh. That price will drop by at 3-5x as solar reaches maturity. Natural gas plants sell power for ~6cents/kWh. Green hydrogen will have at least 5.5cents/kWh ($1.80/kg) of wiggle room to generate returns.

Many people consider batteries to be superior to hydrogen for all business cases. This isn't true for applications that need more than ~10 hours or so of capacity. Sub 10 hours is a huge market and encompasses almost all transportation, but there is a vast market for storage beyond 10 hours.

The Achilles heel of batteries is that the power of the battery and the energy stored by the battery are linked. An Li battery can easily discharge itself in one hour. If you want 10 hours of storage you need to buy a battery that could deliver 10x the power you're asking it to. This dramatically increases the cost and sheer tonnage of materials required to make the required system. Green hydrogen systems only require equipment that can deliver power at 1x the requirement with a storage tank that holds 10 hours of fuel. This means that there is always a crossover point where hydrogen becomes cheaper than batteries. My projection for the future is that this number will be around 10-20 hours.

This makes hydrogen the best choice for many applications and is the reason why lots of governments are into the idea. Transportation is only around ~20% of the energy we use, much of the rest might come from renewable hydrogen in the future.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by cbmuser on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:58AM (#34486250)
Japan plans to make hydrogen using high-temperature nuclear reactors (HTGR or HTTR).

See: https://www.jaea.go.jp/04/o-arai/en/research/research_03.htm...

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by enslavedrobot on Monday January 23, 2023 @02:07AM (#34486291)
High temperature hydrogen electrolysis is a proven cheap tech. The main problem is the cost of nuclear in my opinion.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by 6510 on Monday January 23, 2023 @06:06AM (#34487474)
While one could easily do arm chair criticism the author of the top article thought it more convenient to just ignore it?
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by amluto on Monday January 23, 2023 @11:48AM (#34491321)
Nifty. The chemical process involved appears to be:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sulfur–iodine_cycle

50% thermal efficiency from nuclear to hydrogen sounds very good.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by Schroedingersat on Monday January 23, 2023 @05:26PM (#34495990)
Except nuclear steam generators have to run at well under 830 degrees and at low head because of two loop cooling and corrosion issues so odds are pretty good this will be about as reliable as every other gas cooled reactor and be shut down in 10 years.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by dbspin on Monday January 23, 2023 @04:31AM (#34486971)
Unfortunately 'green hydrogen' currently isn't.

"Under baseline conditions, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are around one-quarter that of the currently dominant process for hydrogen production, steam methane reforming (SMR). However, sensitivity analysis shows that GHG emissions may be comparable to SMR under reasonably anticipated conditions. "

https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2021/ee/d1ee0...

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by enslavedrobot on Monday January 23, 2023 @05:05AM (#34487129)
I think this type of analysis fails to project the future. GHG emissions from solar cell production will decline as the inputs and processes used to make them begin to use renewable energy.

Green hydrogen decouples H2 generation from hydrocarbons, and industrial uses of H2 will be critical in decoupling more processes and industries from fossil fuels. That's the whole point.

The other part of the abstract suggests that grid energy will be required to buffer intermittent renewables. This argument assumes that it is not possible to design H2 electrolyzers that can rapidly adapt to a change in electrical input, which is simply a relatively straightforward engineering challenge.

I find it hard to believe that the authors of this paper didn't already know all of this.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by cbmuser on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:57AM (#34486246)
»Turning electricity into hydrogen and then into motive power for a car is dramatically less efficient than using a battery, and car commutes in Japan are on the short side, so huge batteries wouldn’t be as necessary.«

Which is why Japan is favoring high-temperature hydrolysis here using high-temperature nuclear reactors.

See: https://www.jaea.go.jp/04/o-arai/en/research/research_03.htm...

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by thereddaikon on Monday January 23, 2023 @09:59AM (#34489515)
>This doesn’t make sense to me. Hydrogen is not an energy source

Hydrogen is often compared against batteries. Those aren't an energy source either. I haven't seen anyone seriously propose hydrogen based powerplants. I have seen plenty talk about hydrogen fuel cells as a potential alternative to BEVs and a potential way to get around the multiple short comings of lithium batteries. Fuel cells of course have their own problems. But we've yet to come up with an alternative to gas engines that are as long ranged, quick to fuel, reliable, cost effective, safe and performant while also being net zero or negative carbon.

>So the only way this seems like a win for Japan is if electricity were cheap, battery EVs were not economical, and the loss associated with electrically synthesized hydrogen didn’t matter.

I feel like you are handwaving the issues with BEVs while focusing on the issues with hydrogen. I'm not sure which at the end of the day will turn out to be better. But right now BEVs are incapable of becoming the defacto solution for the simple fact that the battery packs wear out and replacing them will total the car. You can't develop a working used market this way. And lower income individuals simply can never afford to use them. The fact that car markers are going out of their way to design platforms with batteries that are difficult to replace exacerbates the problem. But even if they were easily swapped, their high cost and the fact they are tied to the vehicle means a large chunk of the market can't afford them. And nobody is talking about this.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by burkaman on Monday January 23, 2023 @10:11AM (#34489696)
> I haven't seen anyone seriously propose hydrogen based powerplants.

Well, Japan has. You may have read about it recently in the article linked at the top of this comment page. Here's another source from Japan itself: https://www.meti.go.jp/english/policy/energy_environment/glo...

> Accelerating the commercialization of hydrogen power generation turbines in Japan by supporting the early demonstration with actual equipment, with a view to capturing the global market in the future

> Assuming that the price of the 100% hydrogen-derived electricity retail menu and the price of the 100% natural gas-derived electricity retail menu are the same, and assuming that only the latter retail menu has a price hike of about 1.8 yen/kWh (based on the time when the cost of LNG-fired power generation was at its highest), a standard household would be able to save about 8,600 yen/year.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by readonthegoapp on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:51PM (#34485268)
> I didn't know Toyota was a fossil fuel company, or was owned by one?

huh? what did i miss?

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by rippercushions on Sunday January 22, 2023 @11:55PM (#34485630)
> The very idea of "my car needs to go 300 miles on one charge/tank" just isn't a thing there.

Citation needed. No, you don't need to go 300 miles on one charge/tank if you live in a big Japanese city, in fact you don't even need a car in that case. However, if you live in rural areas or need to travel long distances, 300 mi is not a lot to ask for: the main island of Honshu is >800 mi long and 300 won't even get you from Tokyo to Osaka.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by pezezin on Monday January 23, 2023 @07:26AM (#34488011)
People seem to forget that Japan is not only Kanto and Kansai. I live in Aomori and here everybody needs a car. I have to drive around 500 km per week, and I would really appreciate if my car would have better mileage.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by fomine3 on Monday January 23, 2023 @08:26AM (#34488453)
On your use case, you just need to plug in everyday, instead of go to gas station every week. Who often drive above 150km per day is rare in Japan even in rural area.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by pezezin on Tuesday January 24, 2023 @06:55AM (#34502479)
Well, the only problem is that I don't have where to plug it, but sure, it is feasible. My neighbor drives a Nissan Leaf, and we had a co-worker with a Tesla, so I know it is possible.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by qikInNdOutReply on Monday January 23, 2023 @03:23AM (#34486648)
More lies and more deception:

Japan has huge deposits of methan hydrate on sea floors it wants to mine.https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methanhydrat

And this is why hydrogen is on the shit list, all the roads lead to ever more mined carbs, blown into the atmosphere in one way or another. The roads to green hydrogen are riddled with conversions that make it economically unviable.

Its the equivalent of a addict switching from heroin injection to a fetanyl patch. Yes, the process is cleaner, less dangerous, but the longterm bad effects are still there.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by TheRealPomax on Monday January 23, 2023 @11:01AM (#34490449)
No, it's more like a nation that was rolled into having a fuel dependency on other countries as suppliers trying to come up with ways to no longer be (as) dependent on countries like China or the US to keep the lights on and the cars going vroom.

Also, pretending that emission reduction isn't worth the effort because it's not zero-emission is a perfect example of advocating for the worst possible solution by denying the merit of a transitional solution just because it's not the ultimate solution. The world's not going to improve with that attitude.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by hbarka on Monday January 23, 2023 @03:43AM (#34486726)
Not uniquely Japan. China, Japan, South Korea, Germany, in that order, lead the world in hydrogen fueling stations.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by TheRealPomax on Monday January 23, 2023 @10:44AM (#34490134)
That's not what I said, though. China and Germany have massive coal supplies, and oil pipelines at their disposal. They don't have to literally ship (with actual ships from other countries) anything in just to keep the cars going vroom. They'd benefit way more from real batteries rather than using hydrogen as the battery of choice.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by dsfyu404ed on Monday January 23, 2023 @08:05AM (#34488289)
>literally freeing them from fossil fuel dependency, which is a big part of why they keep trying to make it work.

Exactly. Freedom isn't free. It's always mind boggling that HN doesn't get this despite this being a community in which paying more for energy sources we like is highly popular.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by makeitdouble on Sunday January 22, 2023 @09:27PM (#34484738)
There is no doubt fossil fuel companies want to keep selling more fuel, and current hydrogen is a prime client for that. At this point I don't think anyone is arguing that fossil fuel companies will push anything to continue making money through different venues while touting to help progress.

Now, hydrogen in cars isn't just about how the "fuel" is produced. People try to reduce it to CO2 emission number, but to me there's a lot more nuance. Petrol fuel burned by thousands of vehicles in the middle of a city isn't the same as petrol fuel burned in an hydrogen plant. The CO2 numbers might be similar, but the effect on people's life is completely different. EVs achieve the same goal, but if all vehicles can't be EVs (I think it's reasonable to expect cases where EV won't work), the rest being hydrogen or other low pollution alternatives is I think important.

Car makers themselves aren't touting hydrogen as the end all be all either, most makers in the game are using it as diversification to not put all their eggs in the EV basket.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by hammock on Sunday January 22, 2023 @09:38PM (#34484802)
Do you hate fossil fuels or do you want to save the planet? I feel your words seem prejudiced against allowing fossil fuel companies to help us fight climate change
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by gumby on Sunday January 22, 2023 @09:40PM (#34484819)
We need to stop using fossil fuels. Both their extraction and they use are ecologically disastrous. They power they provide is all op ex, rather than cap ex as with solar or wind (or nukes for that matter).
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by gruez on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:08PM (#34485020)
How does this have anything to do with the question posed by the parent? You want the whole world to stop using fossil fuels, but clearly the world isn't ready for that. In the meantime, what's wrong with fossil fuel companies using some of their profits to fuel (heh) renewable energy projects?
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by acdha on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:31PM (#34485154)
Those companies have a half century history of lying about the science. We have no reason to believe they aren’t lying now about this technology’s feasibility or the carbon emissions in their production process — or that any profits wouldn’t be used in part to fund their political lobbying to prevent action or dodge the consequences of their actions.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by gruez on Sunday January 22, 2023 @11:11PM (#34485378)
>We have no reason to believe they aren’t lying now about this technology’s feasibility

It'd be a pretty big lie for them to pull off. It's one thing to spend a few million funding some climate change denying think tanks. It's a whole other level of deception to spend hundreds of millions on a technology in the hopes that others will fall for it.

>the carbon emissions in their production process

This seems like the weakest possible argument. Either the chemical reaction they're proposing generates carbon or it doesn't. It's very easy to validate. Are you expecting them to build an entire "green" hydrogen plant that claims to use a process that doesn't produce co2, but is secretly burning oil? That seems extremely risky to pull off and very easy to discover.

>or that any profits wouldn’t be used in part to fund their political lobbying to prevent action or dodge the consequences of their actions.

So you would rather shoot ourselves in the feet (metaphorically) when it comes to the green energy transition, because you can't stand the thought of the bad guys making money in the process? Do you also think that we should drag out the pandemic a bit longer because a bad guy[1] might be making money in process?

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pfizer#Legal_issues

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by acdha on Monday January 23, 2023 @08:10AM (#34488319)
> It's one thing to spend a few million funding some climate change denying think tanks. It's a whole other level of deception to spend hundreds of millions on a technology in the hopes that others will fall for it.

First, anti-science campaign they’ve run is on the order of billions - there were individual “no big deal” ad campaigns measured in millions. It’s truly hard to appreciate the scale of that half-century committed effort to influence the public and politicians around the world, so I would urge extreme skepticism before relying on any of their claims which hasn’t been validated by truly independent sources. Their later green campaigns have been well-publicized but the actual work has been a tiny fraction of their total R&D expenditures.

One of the big things to keep in mind is how often they’ve talked about carbon capture or sequestration far in advance of what the actual technology is capable of. They do that because it allows them to say they’re doing something but just can’t stop business as usual until it’s ready. A key part of this is that they often fund genuine research where the academics involved are really trying to make progress but it’s just a hard problem.

What I would worry about with hydrogen is continuing what we’ve seen since the 1970s: big promises but no meaningful impact at reducing use of fossil fuel. That comes in two forms: the most obvious is simply that there aren’t many hydrogen cars you can buy and the logistics are daunting so most people don’t buy it (or literally cannot because e.g. they don’t live near one of the few dozen stations in the entire state of California). Things like storage and transportation still have significant unsolved problems before they’re ready for mainstream adoption.

The second would be more subtle: currently, almost all hydrogen is produced from hydrocarbons. It is very easy to imagine a campaign selling the image of solar powered electrolysis but relying on fossil fuels “at first”, where the companies know there’s a huge gap before the process doesn’t depend on things which emit CO2. That’s the scenario I had in mind, where there’d be a likely legal defense that they were just too darn optimistic about being able to switch.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by hajile on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:21PM (#34485099)
How will you make a battery-powered semi? Tesla claimed to have one then got super-quiet about it.

Do the calculation for joules of power to move a fully-loaded tractor-trailer. Do a joule/kg calculation for modern batteries and calculate the series you get due to the rocket fuel problem (it takes a lot of battery to haul your battery).

You find that the towing capacity of that semi is miniscule vs an ICE engine. Same problem applies to heavy equipment (even if you completely dodge the issue that heavy equipment works out where stable power usually isn't readily available).

Hydrogen offers a solution to this that batteries can't offer.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by danaris on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:41PM (#34485212)
"Tesla has failed to produce a battery EV semi truck" is not strong evidence that it is impossible to produce one. Tesla has been having quite a bit of trouble in recent years, as its not-a-founder-but-wants-you-to-think-he-is makes promises reality can't deliver.

Now, it may be that you're right—that battery-powered semi trucks are unfeasible to build.

But a) this doesn't mean we should go all-in on hydrogen, either, and b) maybe what this really means is that we need to eliminate the semi truck as a common feature of our roads, and do most of our cross-country shipping by rail, which is massively more efficient no matter what means you use to power it. (Yes, that requires more investment in our rail infrastructure, but that would also be a very good thing on several levels.)

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by Karrot_Kream on Monday January 23, 2023 @12:57AM (#34485960)
According to [1] US freight rail already transports 40% of long-haul freight and is the plurality of freight transport.

[1]: https://www.aar.org/facts-figures a biased source probably

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by hodgesrm on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:19AM (#34486084)
You really notice the difference when you go to a country like Germany, which uses a lot more trucks to haul freight. The rail percentage is about 19% currently. [0] The Autobahn is packed with trucks. The percentage of rail traffic is lower in other EU countries apparently.

[0] https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/travel-logistics-and-inf...

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by grey-area on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:46PM (#34485234)
The EV semi is in testing with real loads and works fine.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by thworp on Monday January 23, 2023 @06:12AM (#34487511)
Yes it works with less than half of the 20-25 tons of cargo that a regular semi transports.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by foobazgt on Sunday January 22, 2023 @11:05PM (#34485352)
I don't know if the specs are public, but from what people have seen, it seems to perform mostly as advertised. Frito Lay is using them in earnest and happy with the results so far: https://insideevs.com/news/632312/tesla-semi-megacharger-at-...
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by gary_0 on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:13AM (#34486050)
> power they provide is all op ex, rather than cap ex

And hydrogen is the same: producing it, transporting it, getting it to end consumers... lots of op ex. Whereas with pure electric you just need wires and batteries, and there is none of the efficiency loss of converting energy into hydrogen and having to transport it as mass and worry about leakage.

But for rent-seeking old-money megacorps, the inefficiency is a feature, not a bug. They can take a percentage of all that waste as profit.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by naravara on Sunday January 22, 2023 @09:48PM (#34484868)
We’ve seen enough of the fossil fuel industry’s shenanigans and political lobbying efforts to know how that will go. The anecdote about the turtle allowing the scorpion on its back to cross the river comes to mind. It’s in their nature to sting. It’s their entire incentive structure to sting.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by danaris on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:37PM (#34485191)
At this point, the idea that fossil fuel companies are actually interested in trying to help save the planet in any way more than is mandated by law and public opinion is not supported by evidence. They have shown, time and again, that they will lie about science, falsify documents, and try to get laws changed to allow them to pollute without limits. They have lost all benefit of the doubt.

Anyone trying to argue that they have any genuine interest in helping to save the planet is making an extraordinary claim, and needs to back it up with extraordinary evidence.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by thworp on Monday January 23, 2023 @06:16AM (#34487545)
> saving the planet

It's not about saving the planet, it's about saving humans. The planet will be completely fine and will adapt (painful though it may be). The ecosystem has survived much worse, it's just us humans that don't have a few million years to wait for everything to re-balance.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by flavius29663 on Monday January 23, 2023 @08:23AM (#34488419)
this is a very good question, I never thought about it this way. I think it explains a lot of the debate, some people just want to see Exxon, Shell and Chevron crash and burn, rather than switch to green energy production.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by senectus1 on Sunday January 22, 2023 @09:34PM (#34484779)
>Hydrogen is 100% an attempt by fossil fuel companies to remain relevant in a "green energy" world. The primary source for hydrogen would be from methane in natural gas, and they could then sell this as a "zero pollution fuel" while continuing their non-renewable energy business as normal.

while there is a strong degree of green washing going on in hydrogen there are REAL, Concerted efforts for 100% GREEN HYDROGEN in place as well.

Calling all hydrogen a green wash is doing the job of big oil for them stop ignoring the real efforts for a green hydrogen industry by calling all hydrogen a greenwash. Its not the reality. Be a positive force in the world.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by birdyrooster on Sunday January 22, 2023 @09:41PM (#34484828)
Why is it so enticing for people to act like edge lord? I hate this tendency in myself too. Thanks for being cool.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by roamerz on Sunday January 22, 2023 @09:58PM (#34484938)
>> Hydrogen is 100% an attempt by fossil fuel companies to remain relevant in a "green energy" world.

You are assuming that ship has sailed and it has not. Depending the political climate both here in the United States and abroad green energy, at least in automotive applications, will have to compete of functional merit alone. If the elections in a couple of years go the way Republicans would like, fuel will be down at $2 a gallon again and frankly unless there are breakthroughs in range and safety battery powered cannot compete except in certain categories.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by JumpCrisscross on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:02PM (#34484960)
> fuel will be down at $2 a gallon again

Absent an American state oil company, zero chance. Even the majors are treating oil as a semi-stranded asset.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by Xixi on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:28PM (#34485139)
These few legitimate use cases should not be dismissed though, from the perspective of sizing an energy grid: for example reducing iron ore with hydrogen rather than coal works out to about one nuclear reactor for one furnace. No idea for chemical feedstock, but it's likely to also be huge.

I don't think anyone pushing for hydrogen in cars in Japan has done even a back-of-the-envelope calculation of how many nuclear reactors/wind turbines/solar panels Japan would need to migrate their fleet... So the plan is likely to make it from natural gas, import it, or -more likely- there is no serious plan at all, only subsidies being collected.

Note that in I have a very similar feeling with regard to wind turbines in Europe (at least in Germany and France): behind each wind turbine field there is a very real gas turbine or lignite power plant, and a lot of hand-waving regarding storage... Heard jokes (pre invasion of Ukraine) about Gazprom being behind every wind turbine sale. The situation is different in Northern Europe though, with lots of wind turbines in Denmark, and pumped storage in Norway.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by runarberg on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:41PM (#34485214)
There is a double standard here because any back of the envelope calculation for migrating the entire fleet of any sizeable country with battery electric cars will also turn out to be an impossible task with current technology and industrial manufacturing capabilities.

If your standard of passing as a technology is that it has to replace the current one in its entirety, you’ll always find it lacking, even with battery electric cars.

No, to stop fossil fuel pollution we need many technologies to come together, a lot of infrastructure and some societal change to happen gradually while not to slowly.

Indeed all the current battery electric cars (even adding every one that will be produced this year) are only providing a tiny relief for the climate disaster relatively speaking (if any). I bet that you don’t have to add together many bus and metro lines in Mexico and Brazil to sum up to all the electric cars in terms of climate relief.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by widdershins on Monday January 23, 2023 @03:14AM (#34486607)
> behind each wind turbine field there is a very real gas turbine or lignite power plant

But isn't it still better to be using wind turbines 75% of the time when it's windy, and gas/coal only 25% of the time when it's not? Surely even without adequate battery storage that's an improvement?

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by Xixi on Monday January 23, 2023 @04:30AM (#34486964)
It’s not replacing gas/coal but nuclear, so CO2 wise it is a major step back…

Germany first replaced nuclear by lignite, then lignite by wind + lignite/gas, so if you only look at the second step it doesn’t look so bad. But if you look at the whole picture it doesn’t look so good.

France is coming from 75% nuclear and 25% hydro, and has no business adding and firing up gas turbines.

Of course I’m painting things in broad strokes… reality is always a little bit more subtle.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by 7e on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:46PM (#34485235)
For long term energy storage (seasonal) hydrogen is vastly cheaper than batteries.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by badrabbit on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:47PM (#34485244)
Battery based technology requires rare earth minerals which only a few countries control from what I understand. It is also not feasible due to weight to ship batteries to transfer power, you can only use them near the power source, is that not correct?

Desalination is desparately needed, one byproduct is hydrogen: https://scitechdaily.com/efficient-seawater-desalination-and...

Solutions that solve multiple problems and don't disrupt the norm are ideal are they not?

I mean, by all means, go to war with fossil fuel companies if your goal is only that but less people to fight means more practical change. I am hoping micro nuclear reactors become all the rage but even then a light fuel you can transport easily (despite the difficulty of efficiently transporting hydrogen) is sort of a battery except you can send lots of it continually.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by stephen_g on Monday January 23, 2023 @12:45AM (#34485904)
EV batteries don't actually contain rare-earth metals (but fuel-cells and catalytic converters in ICE cars do). Some types of electric motors use them (in the permanent magnets), which is where a lot of the confusion probably comes from.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by enslavedrobot on Monday January 23, 2023 @02:02AM (#34486269)
Fuel cells based in anionic exchange membranes (AEM) don't require rare metal catalysts. They run on nickel-iron catalysts. Latest gen systems meet or exceed the capabilities of proton exchange systems (that require pt or ir).

Also, since anionic membranes aren't made of complex fluoropolymers they can be synthesized much more cheaply. Scaling to under 100$/kg. 1 kg of material is around enough to make a megawatt fuel cell unit. Batteries are definitely going to capture the entire wheeled vehicle market but hydrogen tech is set to take a large fraction of the overall energy market.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by badrabbit on Monday January 23, 2023 @02:49AM (#34486469)
Electric cars are one thing I disagree with after driving one. I trally think sustainable public transport is ideal for day to day urban tranport needs and charging cars for any longer than 5min in a long roadtrip is not pleasant. But even if EVs are the right approach, hydrogen hybrids that convert hydrogen to battery stored energy or plain hydrogen powered cars where you fill them up like gas make more sense and are less disruptive to existing infra and consumer desires. Just one small example: I don't see a car charging solution for the majority urban people that live in apartments anytime in the near future. I will never sit 45min on a good day or scramble to find a free charging station in random neighborhoods again! Or be stranded because the battery level display doesn't consider X miles means steep winding mountain roads.

Let's not make a religion out of energy sources.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by amluto on Sunday January 22, 2023 @10:50PM (#34485267)
Toyota may or may not be reluctant to do a massive retooling, but have you looked at a Mirai? It’s an EV that happens to be powered by a fuel cell.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by newyankee on Sunday January 22, 2023 @11:37PM (#34485521)
For Japan, it reeks of highest scale sunk cost fallacy in action
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by fwungy on Monday January 23, 2023 @12:35AM (#34485845)
They are not competitors, they are complementary. Hydrogen is cheaper and easier to store than electricity is. Hydrogen provides resiliency because of this and is better for long range vehicles because it can be produced and stored relatively easily.
Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by hannob on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:14AM (#34486056)
> Hydrogen is 100% an attempt by fossil fuel companies to remain relevant in a "green energy" world. > Hydrogen has a few legitimate use cases, such as iron ore refining and chemical feedstock, but that's about it.

I don't see how these two statements are compatible.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by cbmuser on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:55AM (#34486239)
»The primary source for hydrogen would be from methane in natural gas, and they could then sell this as a "zero pollution fuel" while continuing their non-renewable energy business as normal.«

No, that’s wrong. They’re planning to produce their hydrogen from high-temperature reactors like the HTGR in Ibaraki prefecture.

See: https://www.jaea.go.jp/04/o-arai/en/research/research_03.htm...

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by POPOSYS on Monday January 23, 2023 @04:11AM (#34486881)
Thank you very much for your information.

Unfortunately you invalidate your own work by not providing the sources of your knowledge. The internet has a cool feature called "URL", it is meant to provide the source of some information so that your readers can access your sources, too. Just use it!

In a mature, scientific discussion you always want to provide these sources.

Just saying something without sources is an internet discussion style of the past and should not be accepted by modern humans.

Re:'A complete failure' Japan's 'fantasy' hydrogen strategy ... by flavius29663 on Monday January 23, 2023 @08:20AM (#34488392)
> reluctant to completely retool their factories

Whenever they release a new car model, they have to re-tool their factories, just saying. I don't think this is a good argument.