Democratic countries need to bond together so the current two powerful authoritarian dystopian dictatorships as well as any future ones are not able to destroy them. You don't have a right to destroy my country (looking at China and Russia) because you don't like the fact that we are democratic.

There is no “we” anymore. No way in hell am I sending my kids, or allowing my kids to be drafted to fight for this stupid ass country.

I don’t like Russia either, before anyone accuses me of that.

I’m just pointing out that your collective interest delusion no longer exists, I feel no connection to the country I was born in. Fighting to protect its decaying corrupt corpse is the last thing I’ll do.

You point out some red herring, claim it's the base case, and thus it proves the entire viewpoint that it's some "decaying corrupt corpse"

Compared to what, exactly?

And that was a message coming from someone whose family can be assumed to be relatively priveleged. How much cooperation will the draft man be met with in, say, our nation's black ghettos?

Our problem is that our leaders have not fostered the necessary unity to actually prosecute any sort of war that requires "all hands on deck". We can't just say, "they have bad attitudes." (Well, we can, but then we'd be foolish in the extreme to go to war with China over Taiwan. It would be Vietnam all over again.) We have to find out why that guy/gal's family feels dejected, and address those issues. We've made so many people in the US feel like they're not part of the team that it's actually become dangerous as the world enters this new, unprecedented, and more precarious phase.

Because it threatens the future for myself and the kids I would like to have.

Not sure again on the context of the last sentence.

But if it's Russia, and Russia begins to expand further into more of Europe than I'd also step up, but not right now as it stands.

It's an existential threat.

No you won't.

You'll talk tough on the internet, like a lot of other wardrummers. But when push comes to shove, you won't grab a rifle and go to work. That'll be somebody else's job, but you'll totes "stand with them in solidarity".

The Ukrainian government looks to have created its own foreign legion, so you'll even technically be fighting under the Ukrainian flag as a uniformed soldier.

Enlistment period is indefinite: until the "state of emergency" ends.

The second push comes to shove and we need to mobilize the nation ala-WW2 our leaders will realize just how deeply they played themselves.

Is a Chinese or Indian American 20, 25, or 30 year old faced with the prospect of dying for the EU going to join up? Or go live a happy life in Ningbo or Hyderbad? And those are the relatively successful immigrant/minorities. What will your average Colombian or Brazilian 25 year old do? Sign up to fight in the Balkans? Or go live a happy life in Rio well away from potential radioactive fallout zones? Not to even speak of Mexican 25 year olds or Black 25 year olds who already have a strained relationship with the US government as it stands.

Now there will always be some people who choose not to fight, but the past 40 years or so we have fostered an atmosphere where we have greatly increased the number of people likely to fall in that camp. At least in the US. It'd be foolish to assume that in a nation of immigrants, people would not exercise the choice to return to their nations of origin faced with the prospect of a (likely nuclear eventually) conflict with Russia. Especially when we'd want to put most of those very people on the front lines of that conflict.

This. Our leaders are morons. They’re not going to be able to draft their star demographics to fight China/Russia, they’ll all just go home.

Also from the immigrants I know most would HAPPILY stand up for freedom and Democracy. Despite how shit we treat immigrants almost all are way better off here. There's a reason people are fleeing in record numbers. An all out global conflict just increases this exponentially.

Not to mention it's already great way to get legal papers. US army, France foreign legion, etc.

Though it is gross how we have treated some who have served for the US; the second they commit a petty crime they are deported. They should have the same rights and serve in jail here and then release here. Especially given the huge issues & obstacles our vets face.

Are you actually suggesting most first/second generation immigrants would tolerate the US regime drafting their children, and not just immigrate home?

“Europe” will fight to the last American.

You have a continent fat on decadence and social programs that has neglected military for 50+ years, content to let others protect them.

Germany has less than 20 functional attack helicopters ffs. Russia is garbage but come on.

But yeah, Europeans by and large lack the mindset of traditional Americans, who look at military service as a right of passage. It's been fascinating to talk with Europeans about the present situation. Most of them still really don't understand even the short-term ramifications of the current conflict, nor do they understand the underlaying causes.

That all said, I'm not sure where the next generation of American warfighters is going to come from. After the überbungle that was the withdrawal of Afghanistan, every person I know currently serving wants out now.

I doubt I would be fighting as infantry though so there's that for sure.

The world would have to be in way big shit for the us mil calling up 30+ year olds, even though I'm in pretty great shape (i'm short though).

Myself, and a lot of people here over the age of 25 with tech skills, would probably still be useful assets.

Not to mention they invented bubble tea.

If it’s the US nobody is ever getting drafted again. That’s just silly. Surprised you have kids if that’s the way you talk to your wife though.

There's a reason the cold war was a, well, "cold" war; the consequences of resolving it would have caused far greater harm. This is also the reason NATO is careful to avoid too much direct involvement right now.

So in short, also insert something about the road to hell being paved with good intentions.

Oh you sweet summer child.

In the light of the Ukraine situation strategic ambiguity is looking less and less attractive. A bit more clarity and commitment might have avoided this whole situation.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentar...

Going after China would be magnitudes more painful than going after Russia. It would also hurt the US whereas Russia is mainly causing problems for Europe.

Russia is actively threatening nuclear war. That’s a threat to everyone, not just Europe.

With the caveat that China will export all that extra inflation to them which will exacerbate the domestic problems Biden faces.

If however China was to invade Taiwan and US/EU were forced to impose sanctions on them then you can basically expect a financial nuclear winter, everyone will be in pain, US most of all. China actually is a highly self-sufficient economy outside of energy markets (which it could adapt to especially if Russia remains an ally) while the US is heavily import dependent from China (hence the whole trade imbalance/surplus that Trump was bitching about).

TLDR: No one currently cares about Russia sanctions except Europe. The world can't afford Chinese sanctions.

China depends a lot on importing food, especially meat. The two most essential things they need. Food and Energy. And they currently struggle with both.

They have already declined to impose sanctions on Russia because of their reliance on Russia for raw materials and fertilizer.

Lets just hope none of this ever happens. I live in Taiwan at the moment. I just want to enjoy life with my family.

History is full of nuke threats and no follow through (well except 2 incidents).

But I moved on from moderate uncertainty leading to a default of skepticism.

Some actions have very predictable outcomes even if they aren't guaranteed. with those I like to use the vernacular that implies certainty. That's how I feel about nuclear exchange. But I don't associate the probabilities of expectation of nuclear exchange and invasion as conditional upon each other. A surprise outcome in an invasion of a nonnuclear non-nato state wouldn't lead me to feel a nuclear exchange probability suddenly becomes inverted similarly.

Because countries have invaded others during nuclear times. That should come as no surprise to a student of history even if many didn't expect Putin to in this particular instance.

But the pressing matter is would Putin use nukes? Would he use nukes if it means easy escalation to a mutual exchange where him and his country would end up as ash? Nah I don't believe he would unless some development allowed him to nuke with impunity.

On one hand they could stop sending gas, on the other hand what else would they do with that gas? I am hoping that they do not have significant storage or transportation to Asia infrastructure.

Maybe China just takes the Russian gas and pays them in Yuan.

I have a hard time believing that China will forward energy resources to anyone else when they, themselves could be using said resources. But I could be wrong. Maybe they're big hearted like that.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-28/russia...

That's the point. The sanctions EU is imposing on Russia are getting very serious, so even without any military threat involved, China would think twice before invading Taiwan. Also I believe some countries already working on alternatives, which of course is a very long and costly process, but better late than never.