The reverse is also true. Economic dependence between China and the west make conflict very expensive to both sides. That Russia is kind of out there means they can act (or be acted against) with fewer economic consequences.

This interdependence is kind of interesting. You could argue that China won't invade Taiwan because it will hurt the China economy or you could argue that China can invade Taiwan because any sanctions will hurt others' economies. In the end it's just a big unpredictable poker game.

???

Russia is actively threatening nuclear war. That’s a threat to everyone, not just Europe.

He is talking about the sanctions. Less than <1% of revenue of SP500 is derived from Russia so US isn't directly affected by any of the sanctions in any way. They are indirectly affected by the impact on the price of commodities (which also affects China more than the US) so overall this whole sanctions situation is mostly fine for the USA.

With the caveat that China will export all that extra inflation to them which will exacerbate the domestic problems Biden faces.

If however China was to invade Taiwan and US/EU were forced to impose sanctions on them then you can basically expect a financial nuclear winter, everyone will be in pain, US most of all. China actually is a highly self-sufficient economy outside of energy markets (which it could adapt to especially if Russia remains an ally) while the US is heavily import dependent from China (hence the whole trade imbalance/surplus that Trump was bitching about).

TLDR: No one currently cares about Russia sanctions except Europe. The world can't afford Chinese sanctions.

> China actually is a highly self-sufficient economy outside of energy markets

China depends a lot on importing food, especially meat. The two most essential things they need. Food and Energy. And they currently struggle with both.

This is true but their biggest food trading partner is actually Brazil (second biggest is US though...) which would decline to impose sanctions on China. This is because Brazils economy is highly reliant not just on food exports to China but also iron ore.

They have already declined to impose sanctions on Russia because of their reliance on Russia for raw materials and fertilizer.

Any shipments may end up being blocked by Japan because they would need to go between Japan and Taiwan to get to China. During the conflict it will be delayed and risky.

Lets just hope none of this ever happens. I live in Taiwan at the moment. I just want to enjoy life with my family.

Such immediate sanctions are still pretty risky even with Russia’s small economy; you don’t know how leveraged someone’s investments there can be. It could also lead to them becoming a client state of China, though I don’t think that’s their style.

Russia isn't going to nuke anyone. It's a gambit to make NATO pause and slow down their reaction.

History is full of nuke threats and no follow through (well except 2 incidents).

A week ago Russia wasn't going to invade Ukraine. I think if there is a lesson to be learnt, then that some things we thought are certain really aren't that certain.

You thought Russia wasn't going to invade Ukraine. I had other opinions.

Actually I didn't. But everyone else did, even though Russian troops were surrounding Ukraine. Now Russia is under much more pressure than Putin ostensibly anticipated. They wrongly published a victory piece after just a few days into the invasion. Also they 'made' a referenadum to station nuclear weapons in Belarus. So, I wouldn't be so sure is all I am saying.

Yes I agree with you and Descartes the only thing we can be certain of as conscious observers is we exist.

But I moved on from moderate uncertainty leading to a default of skepticism.

Some actions have very predictable outcomes even if they aren't guaranteed. with those I like to use the vernacular that implies certainty. That's how I feel about nuclear exchange. But I don't associate the probabilities of expectation of nuclear exchange and invasion as conditional upon each other. A surprise outcome in an invasion of a nonnuclear non-nato state wouldn't lead me to feel a nuclear exchange probability suddenly becomes inverted similarly.

Because countries have invaded others during nuclear times. That should come as no surprise to a student of history even if many didn't expect Putin to in this particular instance.

But the pressing matter is would Putin use nukes? Would he use nukes if it means easy escalation to a mutual exchange where him and his country would end up as ash? Nah I don't believe he would unless some development allowed him to nuke with impunity.

I didn't expect them to invade that quickly. I thought it's just a gamble by Putin to get concessions. What's his endgame? Keep an occupation or install a puppet government?