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Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by zaroth on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @10:29AM (#25359503)
California is actively looking for ways to extract more money from Elon.

It likely posed an appreciable risk to his business ventures that CA at some point will try to tax unrecognized capital gains, which would require him to liquidate shares to pay the tax. Basically akin to a hostile government takeover.

If CA were to aggressively pursue such a policy, they would likely go after anyone they perceived as fleeing just ahead of it.

In a situation like that, best to cut ties from the state as much as possible as soon as possible. This is why he had to sell all his CA assets.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by busterarm on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @10:46AM (#25359747)
Or, framed differently, California is looking for deep pockets to bail out their failing budget rather than adjust their policy to match what they can afford.

The same has been happening in New Jersey with its insane taxes that don't really go to pay for services anymore and have diverted from transportation & infrastructure projects for decades now to bail out their severely underfunded pension funds...where the pensioners have almost entirely moved out of New Jersey to avoid the same taxes.

There's a point where what you get out is not worth what you put in. I don't blame Musk at all for doing what's best for himself, his company and (probably) his employees.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by itsoktocry on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:20PM (#25361793)
>Or, framed differently, California is looking for deep pockets to bail out their failing budget rather than adjust their policy to match what they can afford.

You mean the budget that included tax abatement and subsidies for his factories and the people who buy his cars?

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by beambot on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:31PM (#25362023)
You mean abatements & subsidies required to push "clean" vehicle policies that are among the most aggressive in the world?

Without Tesla & CA's policies, auto electrification would be at least a decade behind what it is today... Being at the forefront of environmental policy has real costs.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by yxwvut on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:41PM (#25363476)
Perhaps the private beneficiaries of those subsidies should bear some responsibility for covering the costs?
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by darawk on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:48PM (#25363605)
Why? The purpose of those subsidies is to benefit all of us. Not to benefit Elon Musk. He's just the only one who stepped up to solve the problems for us.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by elindbe2 on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @04:02PM (#25364913)
California would've had to make that responsibility known up front. They chose not to do that.

And California directly benefitted from the money they spent. That benefit is electric vehicles in the hands of its population, which improves the state's pollution levels long-term.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by yxwvut on Thursday December 10, 2020 @06:43AM (#25372614)
Agreed on all fronts. More of a 'woulda-coulda-shoulda' than anything.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by HeadsUpHigh on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @05:11PM (#25365979)
No that should have been stated upfront. A deal is a deal.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by kobayashi on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:55PM (#25363740)
That would drastically undermine the point of those, and any future, subsidies. I would also find it to be immoral.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by beaner on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @03:55PM (#25364788)
Unpopular opinion:

Electric cars & clean tech generally have made leaps and bounds because consumers want it. Climate agreements help somewhat, but they're a lagging indicator of the trend.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by threeseed on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:50PM (#25363636)
Paris climate targets will have done far more to push EV forward than Tesla/CA.

Most governments e.g EU, UK, China all looking to curtail/ban ICE cars within the next few decades. And of course this has resulted in car manufacturers rapidly pushing EV cars.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by busterarm on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @03:36PM (#25364476)
And mass market EVs weren't really a mass-market thing until Tesla pushed the luxury brands to compete with them.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by threeseed on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @04:48PM (#25365702)
Mass market EVs started appearing exactly after EU regulations forced them to be made.

Tesla has helped but be would have EVs today even if the company had never existed.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by imgabe on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @05:58PM (#25366529)
It's impossible to say what would have happened in a different timeline, but Tesla made electric cars cool. Yes, there were EVs before, they were half-assed token efforts by the big automakers to pretend that they were trying. Tesla forced them to be competitive.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by beambot on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @10:58PM (#25369509)
Are you talking about the same EU regulators that barely gave volkswagen a slap in the wrist for dieselgate?

EU regulations had approximately zero impact on Tesla's formative years -- and Tesla was the first auto manufacturer to meaningfully commit long-term (and not lip service) to EVs. VW and others are still today talking about how they're playing catch-up.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by coryfklein on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @04:14PM (#25365108)
If California wanted to make those subsidies conditional on folks like Musk maintaining residency, they certainly could have done so.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by oh_sigh on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:48PM (#25362448)
It's not like Elon held a gun to the legislature to pass those subsidies.

This sounds a bit like abusive spouse behavior.

"I'm leaving"

"You can't do that - what about all those nice things I gave you?"

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by ranman on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:58PM (#25363788)
> Or, framed differently, California is looking for deep pockets to bail out their failing budget

They certainly waste money but... they also make a lot of it... why is the budget failing? This is a common refrain I hear but I've never really understood it.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by jxramos on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @05:43PM (#25366366)
There is something incredibly ironic about that, unfunded pension liabilities for pensioners who no longer reside in the locale that gave them their pension.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by busterarm on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @06:33PM (#25367072)
Well, pensions are taxable just like regular income. Minus some exclusions usually. People are just trying to extend their retirement as far as possible.

It might just be that income tax isn't the best/fairest tax.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by dmode on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:19PM (#25363114)
California has been running budget surpluses for many years. And will run a surplus again this year, despite the pandemic
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by dschuler on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @03:26PM (#25364302)
It currently looks like CA will face a 54B budget deficit for 2020 [0], and "could see" a "one-time surplus" of $26B for 2021 [1,2], followed by projected deficits in 2022-25 [2].

[0] https://www.npr.org/2020/08/03/895377375/california-has-lost...

[1] https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-aler...

[2] https://lao.ca.gov/reports/2020/4297/fiscal-outlook-111820.p...

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by dmode on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @06:19PM (#25366873)
California budgets from mid year. So 2020-2021 and that is projected to have a $26b surplus. There is projected deficits beyond that, but not sure anyone can say for certainty how fast the economy will recover
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by hed on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @04:37PM (#25365514)
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by dmode on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @06:20PM (#25366882)
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by o-__-o on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:26PM (#25361905)
> where the pensioners have almost entirely moved out of New Jersey to avoid the same taxes.

(Income) Tax free Texas sounds good right about now!

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by WillPostForFood on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:41PM (#25362286)
Texas is a no income tax, but moderately high property tax state. That's good when you are making money, but can be hard when you retire: low income, high tax on your house.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by nrmitchi on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:35PM (#25363352)
It also disproportionately impacts mid-tier earners. Ie, those who earn enough to own their home, but still have it make up a significant portion of their net worth.

Someone making 100k/year, and making 1M/year, both living in 400k houses (not uncommon in the Austin area), will be paying the dollar-amount in tax.

Ie, a high property tax and low income tax is very regressive.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by jdbernard on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:47PM (#25363596)
Wait a minute, where are all these $400k homes you're finding in Austin? I thought those disappeared about 5 years ago...

Joking aside, it wouldn't surprise me if $400k was close to the median price for homes within the city limits.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by nrmitchi on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:58PM (#25363806)
Within the city currently I believe 400k is actually on the low end.

Originally I wrote 500k, but changed it to avoid "no one should be complaining if they life in a half a million dollar home, that can buy so much in Ohio!!" type comments.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by mbesto on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @05:20PM (#25366082)
Funny enough $400k is pretty spot on: https://www.zillow.com/austin-tx/home-values/
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by yao420 on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @04:06PM (#25364988)
I bought a house this year for $250k in 78744. Plenty others near that price range are available, but it is in a Mexican neighborhood with bad schools.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by o-__-o on Saturday December 12, 2020 @04:27PM (#25401872)
Late to respond but NJ, where I used to live, has property tax of 10%+. Texas, where I live, is 2%

But I don’t mind if people don’t know this, this state is great as is :)

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by busterarm on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:10PM (#25362932)
Yes, it's mostly Florida where New Jersey's pensioners have gone to.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by apcragg on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @10:48AM (#25359779)
Failing budget? I get that it's super popular right-wing talking point but it just hasn't been true for years. Prior to COVID (which has decimated state budgets Red and Blue) California had a huge surplus and massive rainy-day fund.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by busterarm on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @10:52AM (#25359830)
California has a $54B deficit this year.

It's been all over the news, including very left-wing sources like NY Times and Politico.

The state _projected_ a surplus and was off by an entire order of magnitude into the red.

The state has been campaigning to Congress all year for about $14B in bailout money.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by jlmorton on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @10:57AM (#25359944)
Did you miss the part where there's been a massive pandemic and sky-high unemployment for the past year?

California had the nation's healthiest budget prior to the pandemic, with the highest per-capita surplus, largest rainy day fund.

It's true that California relies heavily on income taxes, which include capital gains, both of which are much more strongly impacted by the business cycle than states primarily funded by property taxes. You can make an argument about that, but California's budget was extremely healthy prior to the pandemic.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by busterarm on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @11:06AM (#25360065)
From 2019:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/patrickgleason/2019/04/16/no-ca...

Where do you expect California to get the money for $1T in unfunded pension liabilities? California's budget is "healthy" only for as long as they ignore their long-term liabilities.

California's "healthy" finances was a lie that the state told you in order to have a hope of meeting future obligations. The legislation they keep trying to pass where they're going to chase after money of people leaving the state shows you the true picture. They wouldn't have a need for such games otherwise.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by jlmorton on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @11:21AM (#25360246)
First of all, it's not 1T. The figure cited in that article includes not just unfunded pension liabilities, but all state and local debt. We're talking about California's State finances here, so the figure you're citing is absurd on its face.

I don't want to sugar coat the unfunded pension liabilities, but they are much smaller than you suggest. The official figure for the unfunded liability for CalPERS is about $140 billion and about $100 billion for CalSTRS.

Importantly, this is over a 30 year horizon. And the more we pay now, the less we pay later. Newsom's 2019 budget included $11 billion in pension liability payments. Even if you assume CalPERS and CalSTRS investments return worse than the 7% (or 6.1%) that they calculate, that's still in the ballpark of what is needed to pay the liability.

While this is a big deal, the funding levels in the 2019 budget are sufficient to pay the entire liability.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by busterarm on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @11:27AM (#25360321)
Lots of places disagree with your figures.

The numbers are only small on an actuarial basis which assumes positive things about the future like: the number of years employees are likely to keep working, the rate at which salaries are expected to increase, the rate of return on plan assets, the discount rate on future benefits.

When conditions are bad, you have to switch to the market basis.

https://www.pensiontracker.org/ https://www.ocregister.com/2019/09/24/californias-pension-de... https://calmatters.org/commentary/dan-walters/2020/08/califo...

And yes, sorry, technically I did lump in other unfunded liabilities (like bonds) in my calculation, but the number does indeed top $1T and California does its best to ignore these liabilities in their budgeting.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by jlmorton on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @12:22PM (#25361012)
The number only reaches $1 trillion when you're talking about the entirety of pension liabilities, not unfunded liabilities. The entire liability is $1.05 trillion.

To put this in perspective, even if you assume zero investment returns, that works out to $35 billion/year over 30 years. The California 2019 budget was $215 billion.

Pension liabilities are a BFD, but I don't think it's fair to say the state is ignoring it. The state is actively pre-paying its obligations.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by ghostwriter on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:03PM (#25361513)
is this liability growing over the years or shrinking? Why do you expect that it's going to shrink at least 35 billion/year over the next 30 years? At some point every debt has either to be paid by the debtor or to be "forgiven" at the expense of someone else's livelihood/savings.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/305287/california-state-...

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by jlmorton on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:16PM (#25363046)
I don't think the liabilities are going to shrink on their own, I'm just trying to put the total cost in perspective.

You see a lot of people talk about the unfunded pension liabilities in apocalyptic terms. And when you hear figures in the hundreds of billions, or trillions of dollars, it sounds insurmountable. It sounds like a bomb waiting to go off that no one is dealing with.

But it isn't. The State is currently over-paying its required contributions. The State is not ignoring the problem. This thread spawned out of the assertion that California's budget is a mess. It started with a discussion of the 2020 budget deficit, and then spiraled into whether the pre-pandemic budget was a fiction which ignores public pensions. My assertion is that the budget was not ignoring the problem, the 2019 budget was funding pension liabilities at a level sufficient to dig out from the hole we are in over the next three decades.

It's also important to point out that the State of California is not the only entity required to fund the shortfall in CalPERS and CalSTRS. The State's liability in CalPERS is about $60 billion. The remaining $70 billion is owed by localities and other special districts.

None of this is meant to claim that the problem is not real. California is going to have to pay an awful lot of money for the next several decades. But that is an awfully long time horizon, with room for an awful lot of economic growth, and if we continue to prudently make payments towards the liabilities each year, it's not apocalyptic at all.

Importantly, the liabilities are owed over a long time horizon, and they don't scale with economic growth, or population growth. They are static. Meanwhile, in the past 30 years, California's real GDP has increased by a bit over 100%. Thirty years from now, it's entirely possible we'll have 2x the 2020 dollars available to pay the liability.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by Apocryphon on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:50PM (#25363644)
It sounds like California is really not the poster child for pension woes. For that, critics should really look to Illinois.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by dmode on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:21PM (#25363145)
Pension liabilities are just a right wing talking point, which shifted from "budget deficits" when California started running huge surpluses and rainy day budgets
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by busterarm on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:26PM (#25363222)
Pension liabilities and the government mismanagement surrounding the fund was a claim charged at the State of New Jersey from the left while Republican Governors Christine Todd Whitman and Donald DiFrancesco ran the state.

Then again with Jim McGreevey (Democrat) from the right.

It's a very bipartisan issue and both parties have fucked it all to hell.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by boringg on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @10:55AM (#25359908)
Yes, most places in the country have a massive deficit this year because states are spending money to protect their citizens and stimulate the economy. So this year is an odd year for most states... don't try and single out California as this bad actor that can't manage its finances. That narrative is misleading.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by busterarm on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @10:59AM (#25359971)
California has historically had budget problems for decades and resolved things 8 years ago through increased taxes. It also increased taxes by about $2B this year.

As recently as 2017, the state miscalculated the costs of Medi-Cal and had a 1.6B deficit for the year.

The argument that I'm framing is that the state has to continuously dig further into its citizens pockets in order to fund its appetite for spending. It's entirely true.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by boringg on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @11:58AM (#25360727)
Listen, CA is a state of big numbers - big deficits and big surplus's (Surplus of $9B in 2018, $7B in 2019). It's a function of being the 5th largest economy of the world Gross State Produce ($3.2 Trillion) larger than India and the UK. It has raised taxes, but mostly in a progressive way targeted at high income earners. At lot of marginal tax revenue comes from IPOs and equity sales. It has intrinsic problems and some pretty bad policies that linger to this day (impacts from prop 13 for example). It's still the best state to live in, has great opportunity for many people and tries to implement long term policies benefitting is citizens and is a global leader.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/debt-by-sta...

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by ghostwriter on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:31PM (#25362015)
> It's still the best state to live in, has great opportunity for many people and tries to implement long term policies benefitting is citizens and is a global leader.

This is all good, until we put another element into the equation. How about stability of the system? It turns out it's predicated on your current- and future- (especially future) citizens' productiveness and willingness to cope with ever growing appetites of the state government. It's been accumulating debt since 1990s, and all the growth that you attribute with a "success" tag is predicated on the expectation that the future generations will figure the solution to the ever growing debt problem. What happens in fact is that the government is stealing the future from the generations to come - it's they who will have to pay for the debt of the current government. And they may just rightfully refuse to do it by moving elsewhere.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by boringg on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @03:34PM (#25364434)
Listen, the debt problem is still a debt problem that isn't fixed in one year and definitely not this year or the next couple. We aren't near a tipping point on debt so out of all our problems right now that one is sitting very low at the bottom. There are many lenders standing quite happily to provide debt to California for ultra cheap rates.

We aren't getting out of this pandemic financial mess through cutting spending. Literally no republican or democrat is pitching that solution - do you have your own economic crystal ball to read the future? Go look to how that worked out for the austerity measure put in play in the EU or during the great depression.

As well right now debt is ultra cheap so any borrowed money to cover downtime when people can't work to protect their health is likely going to have upside in generation of jobs, general well being and future revenue.

If you want to go take that generational wealth tax fight argument probably better to start with the federal government instead of wagging your finger at California.

And in terms of stability of the system that is a much larger macro economic question. There is a great amount of debate in the academic community on how much debt countries can sustainably support especially with Modern Monetary Theory getting traction. I don't think MMT is grounded in its origins but it has pointed to a greater sustainability of deficit on our countries balance sheet as well as us getting to a higher level of employment in our population than we had previously though.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by gnusty_gnurc on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @11:09AM (#25360105)
> Yes, most places in the country have a massive deficit this year because states are spending money to protect their citizens and stimulate the economy.

This is Stockholm syndrome.

Are citizens being protected? Because last I checked, the "smart" people have largely outlawed working, destroyed any semblance of normal life, the average person is $5k behind on rent, and all the old people died.

The federal government has all but given up pretending money is a finite resource. Likewise states are much the same. There really is no such thing as fiscal discipline nowadays.

You can't stimulate an economy if no one is allowed to work besides the already well-off that can work from home.

It's just class war under the guise of public health.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by jlmorton on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @12:28PM (#25361087)
> and all the old people died.

California is a geographically large state, but the bulk of the population lives in dense coastal areas. Given that, you'd expect California to have a very high death rate from Covid. But it's actually ranked 38th on a per capita basis (where higher is better), right behind West Virginia.

California has about half the deaths per capita as Florida does, another warm climate, fairly dense large state. It has a quarter of the deaths per capita as New Jersey, the densest state.

San Francisco has one of the lowest rates of any city in the country, despite being the nation's second most dense city.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by boringg on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:03PM (#25361508)
Agreed - I think one of the things most depressing about the misinformation narrative from the current govt and the far right narrative is that they are hurting their own voting base the most. In that rural counties that should have the lowest rates of transmission and mortality because of the amount of space are actually getting some of the worst outcomes per capita.

All of it much more manageable and probably many fewer businesses would have had to have been closed, jobs lost, people dying if we just adopted some straightforward measures at the beginning. Super depressing.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by echelon on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @04:43PM (#25365609)
> California has about half the deaths per capita as Florida does, another warm climate, fairly dense large state.

That's not a fair comparison!

Florida's age demographic skews elderly because it's an extremely popular retirement destination for folks living along the eastern seaboard.

This census website is a little out of date [1], but it has good proportional data:

* California 62 years and over = 4,253,854 (12.6% total population)

* California 65 years and over = 3,595,658 (10.6%)

* Florida 62 years and over = 3,245,806 (20.3% total population)

* Florida 65 years and over = 2,807,597 (17.6%)

Florida is a retirement home. The reason it has double the deaths is because it has double the old people. That counts for a lot when age is the largest risk factor.

[1] https://www.infoplease.com/us/census/california/demographic-...

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by jlmorton on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @05:34PM (#25366257)
Fair point. But you could just as easily pick neighboring Georgia, where 9.6% of the population is 65 and older. Same result.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by busterarm on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @11:11AM (#25360127)
Right!

All of these state budgets depend on projected tax revenue which isn't coming.

People aren't working. People aren't having kids. People aren't staying in the state.

The cuts MUST be massive.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by umeshunni on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @05:01PM (#25365880)
> The cuts MUST be massive.

This is California - there will be no cuts, just massive tax increases.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by busterarm on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @06:37PM (#25367119)
Yes, and that's why so many people are leaving.

California won't accept that it's destroying its tax base and so will fail.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by boringg on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @12:04PM (#25360790)
It's a long game guys, come on. It's not this year's budget or next years -- it's a multi year cycle. The stress off our health care system as a result of lockdowns and the lives saved is enormous. If California adopted a libertarian approach to the pandemic it would be in a step change of pain compared to where it is. I do get the sense that right now I am just feeding the trolls - it's a bad feeling.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by gnusty_gnurc on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @12:34PM (#25361173)
> The stress off our health care system as a result of lockdowns and the lives saved is enormous.

This is all supposition that says nothing about the horrific costs.

You could be right, but this won’t be apparent for a while and it’d be nice if people at least had the humility to admit they’re making a bet and forcing a plan on people that will destroy their livelihoods.

What makes this particularly offensive is that the authorities have little accountability and skin in the game. The “libertarian” approach at least respects the dignity of people to assess risks they’re willing to take and assume the responsibility for the costs of the measures they take.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by boringg on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @12:57PM (#25361444)
I don't think any authorities have taken these decisions flippantly and if you have seen the amount of hate fired specifically towards them and their families I challenge your assumption that they have no skin in the game.

Is it a well educated bet based on science? Yes. No one is saying it is proven to be successful, no one has had a pandemic or a virus this dangerous replicate itself globally in an incredibly short period of time. This isn't a panacea it's survival mode. We've been in a pretty unknown unprecedented state since February with some pretty bad information coming from the Feds to sow doubt into the equation.

What is your solution given the benefit of hindsight? Go the Texas approach? If you look at death per capita in CA it's highest in the red counties that didn't do any lockdowns and have the lowest population density. Meanwhile the second most dense city in North America (SF) has an incredibly low rate of mortality and infection with some pretty tough measures in place.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by gnusty_gnurc on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:31PM (#25362005)
> Is it a well educated bet based on science? Yes.

Was it well educated when the surgeon general said don't wear masks?

The takeaway is that practically no one should be feeling sure-footed right now about their understanding of something as complex as the net-effect of a pandemic and counter-measures.

The hubris I see in practically everyone nowadays suggests to me people are more politically devoted to their opinions and defending them.

It is totally possible that lockdown measures will be shown to be marginally effective or net-negative in terms of life-years lost in several years time, factoring in the disruption to everyone's lives, children in particular.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by boringg on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:59PM (#25362707)
Your gambit is a bit tough to swallow. Saving the lives of people currently and reducing the spread of a virus quickly vs a speculative view that in the long term the pandemic will have a worse out-come factoring in all the costs. Thats a very tough operational decision to make. Though, to be fair, I think we will have a good sense of how that factored out in comparing Texas to California over the next medium to longer term. I don't feel sure footed in the pandemic. I do feel absolutely certain in the science that masks work, vaccines work as do social distancing measures for reducing the spread.

If you are implying that the surgeon general said don't wear masks then yes I would say it was an uneducated statement or alternatively that he was under political duress to appease the president's administration. After all the Surgeon General is a political appointee serving at the whim of the president.

Are there better ways to implement shutdowns? Probably yes. Are those difficult decisions to make? Absolutely. Are they made with imperfect information? Yes.

I'm not politically devoted to my position - what part of my comments have been political?

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by ghostwriter on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:45PM (#25362377)
> Is it a well educated bet based on science? Yes.

I'd like to see that scientific research that proved that it's definitely permissible to continue filmmaking in LA County, while dining outside a small restaurant is an intolerable risk.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-86gfJosHc

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by boringg on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @03:24PM (#25364269)
I think you are conflating what I am talking about being the general scientific consensus that says that masks, social distance and vaccines work compared to specific local rules on shutdowns.

You are using one locations shutdown rules to make a broad unfounded statement against the broader scientifically proven base of research.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by ghostwriter on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @05:36PM (#25366284)
ok, I'd like to see a scientific research that proves that face coverings (not medical face masks within the first couple of hours in a hospital environment, and not n95 masks, but all these various "face coverings" that are mandatory in the majority of places across the nation) that people use on a daily basis, without access to proper washing and cleaning facilities available at hospitals, are indeed effective at preventing the spread of the virus.

> You are using one locations shutdown rules to make a broad unfounded statement against the broader scientifically proven base of research.

Does it mean that in the context of this particular location and this particular ruling, you condemn Newsom and Garcetti and are willing to inform your elected government representatives about it?

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by boringg on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @07:31PM (#25367778)
Go do your research, I’m not here to do the research that you can’t be bothered to do yourself. And I’m not here to get into a political argument with you about lockdown in LA. You brought both those things up and clearly have an ax to grind. Best of luck sorting it out.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by ghostwriter on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @08:14PM (#25368211)
I will spare your time, there's no such a research. I've done my research and I'm just exposing your unsubstantiated broad claims about scientific basis of the lockdown measures introduced by the government figures of that locality, as well as your bias and hypocrisy. If your standard is scientific, you'll have no problem condemning the authors of the initiatives that ruin individuals' lives in the name of "safety proven by science".
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by boringg on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @09:07PM (#25368691)
My bias and hypocrisy - if that was your goal you have failed. All you have shown is that you have an ax to grind. I haven't talked about lockdown measures at all, only in response to you bringing them up. And at that I haven't even said anything. Like I said before, you have an ax to grind and aren't reading what I am writing.

I will wade in here. Lock down measure do restrict the spread of covid - that I won't refute - and that is scientific in nature and if you are of scientific worth you can't deny that. It's merely physics - if people don't see each other there is no ability to transmit the illness. The debate that you are referring to is whether the severity of the lockdown measures are worth the cost. Thats a political calculation. I haven't waded into that in any of my comments and don't intend now.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by ghostwriter on Thursday December 10, 2020 @07:34AM (#25372997)
> I haven't talked about lockdown measures at all

> Thats a political calculation. I haven't waded into that in any of my comments and don't intend now.

you literally began this thread by posting under the comment that questions the degree of "responsibility for the costs of the measures they [authorities] take", and you proceeded with defending authorities' actions and stating that they have their skin in the game and that they follow the science. Your comment was about politicians making political decisions and enacting certain rulings regarding the lockdown.

> Lock down measure do restrict the spread of covid - that I won't refute - and that is scientific in nature and if you are of scientific worth you can't deny that.

What lockdown measures are you talking about? Generic lockdown measures or particular measures like enforcing "face coverings"?

> It's merely physics - if people don't see each other there is no ability to transmit the illness.

If people don't see each other, there's still a physical world they interact with. They can still pass stuff around and to each other, like food and clothing, right? Or do you live in a vacuum world of abstractions where no one sees nobody and lies still like a rock?

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by boringg on Friday December 11, 2020 @04:06PM (#25390978)
Are you trying to refute physics of breathing? Most of the virus spreads by air. The world of physics goods can be accomplished without breathing on other people hence the physical distancing. What world are you living in?

Yes the restrictions work at reducing spread. Literally all of them do reduce the spread of the virus. The question is the efficacy vs the cost not whether they reduce the spread of the virus.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by matz1 on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:13PM (#25362988)
Saving lives is good but not at the expense of destroying other people life due to lockdowns.

The virus is much less danger than the risk of lockdown.

Yes, i much much prefer to live in place where there are no covid related restriction or lockdown whatsoever.

Lockdown is never needed in the first place.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by WanderPanda on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @12:41PM (#25361258)
As a fellow troll I say: short term: step change in pain long term: exponential growth with a biig base
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by boringg on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @12:59PM (#25361462)
I think thats the right way to frame the bet. Paying for it now with future growth, health and improved revenues coming our way.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by gnusty_gnurc on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:41PM (#25362293)
> Paying for it now with future growth, health and improved revenues coming our way.

If the majority of the people dying are at the end of their lives (or at least at the end of their working lives), doesn't that mean we're shutting down society with no return in the future?

Healthy immune systems seem to be able to handle the coronavirus fine. That's the science.

You can't get revenues (or future health/growth) from the dead.

I don't mean this in a heartless way, but if we're going to say we all believe in science, you can't claim future benefits where there are none.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by boringg on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:02PM (#25362778)
Are you implying that older people don't have value? They teach the younger generations, they work and produce value, they help raise families and communities. I don't know what kind of jaded economic math you are trying to conjure.

The thought that we could let our older and at risk population get decimated because we didn't think they had economic value is a crass oversimplification and belies a lack of understanding of how our systems work.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by gnusty_gnurc on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:20PM (#25363134)
> Are you implying that older people don't have value?

No I was explaining the contradiction that you're saying there's some large future benefits from locking everyone inside and essentially halting public life to protect people who are defined by their very much bounded future.

And we've essentially failed to protect the elderly even with lockdowns.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by dcolkitt on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @04:28PM (#25365348)
> don't try and single out California as this bad actor that can't manage its finances

California's 2020 budget shortfall is projected at $54 billion.[1] Florida's 2020 budget shortfall is projected at $2.7 billion[2]. In other words, on a per-capita basis, California has ten times the shortfall as Florida.

[1] https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/06/29/governor-newsom-signs-2020... [2] https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/news/politics/state/2020...

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by majormajor on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:08PM (#25361582)
I haven't seen that all over the news myself.

The 54B seems to be a projection from May?

I saw stuff like https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-06-29/californ... and https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-aler... which seems like there will be a surplus this year but people aren't sure they're out of the woods just yet, which seems reasonable.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by skrtskrt on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:12PM (#25361656)
> very left-wing sources like NY Times and Politico

These are center-right sources by any reasonable standard

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by Darmody on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:31PM (#25362001)
The far-left managed to create an "amazing" (and terrifying) perspective.

If you're a leftist but not as leftist as them, you're a centrist, maybe even center-right which makes everybody on the right to be automatically far-right.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by skrtskrt on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:38PM (#25362178)
It's not a purity test. To be more clear, the New York Times is left for the media, but (like our entire government-corporate-media complex) center-right of public opinion.

They beat the drums of war for Afghanistan and Iraq, as well as every other imperialist act of war that the US dreams up, breathlessly reports the opinions of the NSA, CIA, and FBI as fact, and generally shills for the corporate-backed opinions of both political parties.

Poll after poll after poll shows these positions to be out of touch with the average American.

The fact that the NYTimes sides more with rich, hypercorporate big-govt Dems more than rich, hypercorporate big-govt Republicans is all part of the charade of choice between the two sides.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by busterarm on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:19PM (#25363104)
Public opinion in the US _is_ center-right.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by Darmody on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:54PM (#25362573)
Keep the elites outside as they don't fit into the left-right political spectrum. They side with an elite that gets its power from the left, which is turning very radical.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by Apocryphon on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:54PM (#25363721)
The left wants to dismember corporate power and redistribute wealth, and there are those who want to defund law enforcement and scale back the military, all of which are actual power structures that elites depend upon. The culturally leftist policies that elites adopt are not where they derive their power from.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by chillwaves on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @03:00PM (#25363837)
Such a worthless comment. Can you keep this kind of invective off HN?
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by busterarm on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:14PM (#25363008)
The NYT hasn't been center-right in years and Politico has always been firmly left.

I said very left-wing (as in firmly left-wing), not far-left.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by bosswipe on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:11PM (#25361632)
> very left-wing sources like NY Times and Politico.

Those are not very left-wing sources.

Edit: to the downvoters, this is objectively true. In actual leftist media NYT is considered conservative. The reality is that they are mostly mainstream.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by chokeartist on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:52PM (#25363674)
> In actual leftist media NYT is considered conservative. The reality is that they are mostly mainstream.

"Actual leftist"? Nice No true Scotsman you got there.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by bosswipe on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:32PM (#25362026)
It's always amazing when I talk to conservatives about california how they know so many little negative details about my state. A lot of times I'll ask them about the budget of their own state and they won't have any idea.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by busterarm on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @03:41PM (#25364550)
I'm center-left. NY has many of the same budget woes that CA does.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by baron_harkonnen on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @12:57PM (#25361445)
> very left-wing sources like NY Times and Politico.

Not disagreeing with your overall claim that CA does in fact have budget problems, but citing the NYT and Politico as "very left-wing" is a pretty hilarious example of just how far right "center" American thinking has gone.

NYT is a classic example of a centrist/liberal publication that is widely reviled by anyone on the left.

edit: If you think "liberals" are the same as the "left" you are about as confused as someone who thinks that JavaScript is the same as Java.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by admiralspoo on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:12PM (#25361663)
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by ecshafer on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:42PM (#25362311)
You are making the gp point. Democratic party is a centrist-liberal party. Not a leftist party. They are a publicly trades corporation owned by wealthy individuals.

They are not a worker co-op, they are not a mutual aid-organization, they are not seeking to overthrow the capital class, they are not socialist, maoist, communist, anarchist, etc. therefore they are not left.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by wolverine876 on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:31PM (#25362019)
Many, many billionaires live, have lived, and thrive in CA - probably more than any place in the world. In fact, I'd guess that more billionaires have made their fortunes in CA than any other place.

The grievance rhetoric has gone too far (and had awhile ago) when it's used by billionaires.

There is also strong reactionary political rhetoric here, the premise that taxes on wealthy people are nearly criminal theft, and nobody would want to live someplace where they democratically invest in their community (i.e., pay taxes). There's also the economic assumption that taxes, whatever their current level, are always too high; AFAIK, taxes on wealthy people are at historic lows.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by imgabe on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @06:04PM (#25366628)
> nobody would want to live someplace where they democratically invest in their community (i.e., pay taxes)

I don't think anybody has a problem with investing in their community, but when there's no return on an investment you cut your losses and move on.

Tent cities, rolling blackouts, no healthcare, no public transportation. What are you getting for the taxes?

I moved to Hong Kong this year. Public health care, amazing public transportation, no tent cities[1], and the top tax rate is 17%. It's not perfect, but this idea that the solution to every societal problem is just to pay more and more taxes is nonsense.

California has the highest taxes in the country. If the quality of life there is worse than in states with lower taxes, then it's time to start questioning how that tax money is spent, not shovel more of it into a black hole that isn't doing anything.

[1] I won't say there's no homeless, because I don't know that for sure, but there are hardly any panhandlers. I know there is subsidized housing available, but I hear the wait list is long. Whatever they're doing, there's hardly any homeless on the streets.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by ddoolin on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @08:39PM (#25368447)
Not discrediting your point, it's just that I'm not sure HK is a great point of comparison. How many people live in a room the size of a narrow walk-in closet? They have a massive, massive real estate problem in Hong Kong -- there is none left where people want to live.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by imgabe on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @09:01PM (#25368632)
It's true, real estate is expensive here, and apartments are small. I'm sure most of the people living in tents in California would be happy to have an apartment, though, even one the size of a walk-in closet. Is it better to have small apartments or thousands of homeless people living on the streets?
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by Voloskaya on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:15PM (#25363029)
I am speaking for myself here, but the way I see it, the issue is more the way in which taxation is exercised than the taxation itself.

If I was in Elon's seat, I personally wouldn't mind paying 20 or 30% of my income in taxes. But vesting shares should not qualify as income. What should qualify as income is me selling those shares. In other words, If I am awarded 1B$ in shares that I have no plan on selling short term, I still have to liquidate 20-30% of those shares just to pay taxes, which may have a pretty high negative impact in term of voting rights.

Why could the taxation not occur when I am selling instead?

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by nrmitchi on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:41PM (#25363470)
> But vesting shares should not qualify as income. What should qualify as income is me selling those shares

I believe that the logic here is the same reason AMT was introduced in the past.

I vest $1M in shares. I get a loan against those shares for 500k. I now have 500k in cash, that I have paid no taxes on. Someone will definitely give me that loan because _worst case_ I have to sell the underlying shares, pay tax, and still pay back the loan. When that loan is due? Refinance against the same shares that I still haven't sold.

If you have a lot of assets, you can always get a loan against those assets. You can kick the can down the road long enough to, effectively, never pay taxes. Or you just kick it long enough for some sort of "tax holiday".

Real estate lets you do this with refinances and 1031 exchanges all the way until you die (at which point the cost basis resets, and your heirs will most likely pay no tax).

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by akira2501 on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @05:52PM (#25366459)
> Many, many billionaires live, have lived, and thrive in CA

That's probably owing to the fact that California's economy is just that large. We're the 5th largest economy in the world.. there's bound to be a higher number of billionaires here.

> The grievance rhetoric has gone too far

I live here, and I disagree. The civil situation in California has done nothing but slowly get worse for the past 3 years, and it has obviously started accelerating in the last 9 months.

> the premise that taxes on wealthy people are nearly criminal theft

That may be the argument.. it may be that for our high taxes in CA, we've been seeing less of it's impact in this state recently. I also have even been wondering if it's still "worth it" to live in CA over the past few months.

> AFAIK, taxes on wealthy people are at historic lows.

Federal personal and business income taxes are. State taxes are not. California in particular is not. Sales taxes are the highest in the nation, and personal income taxes are as well. The state spent the last 8 years going from running a few million in deficit to having several billion in surplus.

Unfortunately, due to corona, that surplus is entirely wiped out and now we're facing several billion in deficit again.

There's not a lot of optimism in CA right now.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by slongfield on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @07:30PM (#25367770)
Ultra-wealthy people are over-represented in California compared to the rest of the USA. 100 of the Forbes top 400 are in CA [1], but the state only has about ~12% of the US population [2], and accounts for ~15% of the US GDP.

[1]: https://www.forbes.com/sites/angelauyeung/2020/09/08/golden-...

[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_territories...

[3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_territories...

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by zionic on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @03:09PM (#25364006)
Just "wealthy" people? The taxes I paid when I made mid 6 figures were criminally high and they have only gotten slightly better with my shift to long term capital gains.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by anchpop on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @04:03PM (#25364954)
if you’re making “mid six figures” USD you’re comfortably wealthy anywhere in the world. Half a million a year is a lot of money.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by Drblessing on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:39PM (#25363429)
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by Traster on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @10:56AM (#25359915)
>Basically akin to a hostile government takeover.

Or, you know, taxes to pay for the government subsidies that have funded all of Musk's current business operations.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by perryizgr8 on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @11:06AM (#25360059)
Aren't those federal subsidies though?
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by nouveaux on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @12:19PM (#25360982)
California subsidized every Tesla sold. I'm not complaining about it but it should be on record that California helped to give Tesla a boost. It was definitely the right move.

I can't think of another state in this country where Tesla would have thrived nearly as well as California. Do you think Tesla would have done well in Texas back in 2003? All those oil guzzlers would have laughed Elon Musk out of the state.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by egsmi on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:39PM (#25362210)
Technically that was an "electric car" subsidy, not a Tesla subsidy. But I am pretty sure the lion share of those 200,000 cars were Teslas judging by whose driving in the carpool lane with single occupancy, so it's probably fair to say it was a de facto Tesla subsidy. But do we really blame Tesla for other manufacturers not being able to take advantage? That seems a bit unfair too.

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-price-california...

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by nickik on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @03:34PM (#25364435)
In what way did California subsidize them? The federal tax credit is for all EV and has not applied to Tesla in 2 years.

> All those oil guzzlers would have laughed Elon Musk out of the state.

We are talking about global production not sure how that matters if people in Texas didn't like them.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by perryizgr8 on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:11PM (#25361626)
I'm just asking. I didn't know Tesla was getting subsidies from CA on top of the federal stuff.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by watwut on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:20PM (#25361784)
Maybe it is dumb to subsidize entrepreneurs without guarantee they will be paying taxes after.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by tomjakubowski on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:58PM (#25362682)
Yeah, a bit of a free rider problem where California has now paid to bootstrap the US electric car industry, to the whole country's benefit, and won't get quite the tax payment rewards for their investment that they are due. Just lots of smug scorn from Elon and the commenters here.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by ranman on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @03:13PM (#25364086)
They'll still get sales taxes, corp taxes, and income taxes from people working at those companies... it's not a "free rider" problem - CA made an investment and it's paying off...
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by oh_sigh on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:49PM (#25362479)
Doesn't seem like it is Elon's problem if California decided to give its taxpayer money away.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by dglass on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @10:51AM (#25359824)
Where is the source that CA is likely to tax unrealized gains?
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by pokstad on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @10:57AM (#25359943)
I don’t know about this, but California law makers were discussing an asset tax at one point. The discussed law would have worked across state lines for up to 10 years to catch rich people who leave state lines. Just the discussion of such a law probably spooked the ultra rich. More details: https://weaver.com/blog/california-proposed-wealth-tax-impac...
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by da_big_ghey on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @12:59PM (#25361466)
It's questionable whether such a law is actually enforceable, and I'd hope it wouldn't hold up in court. That said, I can't blame Musk et al. for being worried by it.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by chucknthem on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:51PM (#25362510)
Being unenforceable doesn't stop a state from passing it (see AB5 recently with most industries getting exceptions). And once it passes, it posses serious business risk to operate in that state.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by bob33212 on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @10:39AM (#25359651)
It would be interesting to know how Larry Ellison is handling that risk. If CA was to go down that path he seems like an obvious target.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by TuringNYC on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @10:49AM (#25359796)
>> unrecognized capital gains

Could you reference the law please? This sounds like the wealth tax which was raised but didn't pass committee. Is there a new proposition?

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by gnopgnip on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @05:03PM (#25365891)
AB-2088
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by apex3stoker on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @05:54PM (#25366483)
I think SALT deduction is an overlooked factor. It is unlikely that CA taxes or will tax capital gain more than the amount taxed by federal government. Before the 2017 tax act from, CA residents could have unlimited deduction on their state tax. This means that Musk would pay the same amount of total taxes whether he lived in CA or Texas or almost anywhere in the US.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by muskmelon_91 on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:06PM (#25362855)
Its funny to see how effective the PR of Musk is! Tesla benefited the most from california's policies and budget. Now, as tesla scaled and succeeds California is the villain. Its easy to see that Musk is more worried about the Income tax. Please dont fall for the PR.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by justanotherhn on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @03:32PM (#25364406)
You created your account 1 hour ago to make this comment?
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by tomjakubowski on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:14PM (#25363018)
You know that CA subsidized Tesla to the tune of billions of dollars right?
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by missedthecue on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @04:04PM (#25364967)
And they would have done so if Musk went home to Texas every night from the start. What's the point you're making? It seems like the problem you have is with the folks in Sacramento, not Musk or anyone else.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by nickthemagicman on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @10:40AM (#25359661)
What are unrecognized capital gains?
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by ls612 on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @10:43AM (#25359707)
He means unrealized capital gains, those are gains on stock you have bought and are holding, but have not sold yet.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by zaroth on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @04:59PM (#25365860)
Apologies for the typo, and thank you for the correction!
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by jcampbell1 on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @10:50AM (#25359803)
Let’s say you are a painter, and you paint 20 pictures and sell 10 for 100,000 each. You pay taxes on the 1m you receive. The other 10 painting are sitting in a storage unit. Then at some point in the future someone, one of you previous customers sells their painting in a private sale for 10M. They pay capital gains on $9.9m. Now you as the painter hypothetically have $100M worth of in paintings in your storage unit. Traditionally this net worth is considered unrealized capital gains and is untaxed. It will be taxed when sold.

Replace paintings with ownership of a company (equity) and you should get the idea.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by beerandt on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @10:55AM (#25359903)
Put another way, it's taxing money (value) that you haven't actually made yet.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by ISL on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @11:03AM (#25360022)
More-dangerously, it is taxing theoretical money that you haven't yet made.

There is no guarantee that the current market-clearing price for a given object is equivalent to that at which a larger inventory can be sold.

Taxing capital gains at the time of sale makes sense -- there is actual revenue available for taxation. Taxing unrealized gains can be a path to really-negative outcomes. This is particularly so if the government doesn't give matching credits for unrealized capital losses.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by jcampbell1 on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @11:08AM (#25360093)
There are some loopholes that should be closed however. You can go to a bank and borrow against your shares, using them as an asset without realizing capital gains. In my mind, if you use the shares (gains) as collateral for your benefit, you should have to recognize the capital gains as mark-to-market immediately payable.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by beerandt on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @06:38PM (#25367134)
A loan is not (usually) taxable income. Taxable income is used to pay back the loan.

This keeps people's capital invested longer term, which is part of the purpose of capital gains tax incentives.

In other words, it's not a loophole. It's working as intended.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by ISL on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @11:26AM (#25360307)
Presumably the bank won't accept them as collateral for more than can be realized at the time of sale?

I'm no expert, but I would guess that, if shares are foreclosed upon, the bank's basis is zero (and their taxation short-term)?

(Edit: the downside here is that the government doesn't see any revenue from this approach, which it might otherwise. The shareholder must pay interest, though, which might not be to their advantage.)

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by darkwizard42 on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @11:06AM (#25360062)
Which is... kind of crazy, it forces you to immediately realize gains and pay taxes on that as well...
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by pjettter on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:11PM (#25361627)
This is how it works (or at least used to work) in The Netherlands.

If you receive Stock options, you pay taxes over the gains, i.e. the money you would have made if you exercised on that date. Even if you have not exercised. So the options were free, but suddenly you have to find a lot of money to keep them. Or you exercise a part of them.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by apta on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:51PM (#25362529)
Sounds like a terrible system.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by RobRivera on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @04:19PM (#25365197)
Great example, and its a dangerous policy bc it makes the incentive to sell your assets to cover the tax bill higher, regardless of your personal plans with them. (Maybe they are future wedding gifts for your children?)
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by epa on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @10:43AM (#25359704)
Stock that has gone up in value for which you have not yet sold.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by RobRivera on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @04:14PM (#25365111)
Forget metaphors, here's a real example.

You have stock in amzn, say you buy at 3200 a share. A year from now it's 4k a share. 800$ capital gains...you get taxed on that.

It is a terrible tax law bc it is unrealized. What happens when you get taxes on that 800$, then the share drops down to 3300, you sell at 3300, making a REAL profit of 100$?

Do you feel fairly taxes at 800$ profit despit having only 100$ profit?

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by aantix on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:30PM (#25361994)
Imagine the house you live in is worth $250,000.

And imagine paying "asset" taxes on that $250,000 home even though you still live there.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by RobRivera on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @04:17PM (#25365154)
Thats...not unrealized cap gains tax, at all. That's property taxes and is a real thing to home owners. My tax bill grows every year bc my home gets assessed at higher values
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by kec on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:47PM (#25362404)
isn't that literally what property taxes are?
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by nickthemagicman on Thursday December 10, 2020 @01:46AM (#25370602)
But but does the gov't pay you if the house price goes down?
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by atomi on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @11:45AM (#25360561)
> CA at some point will try to tax unrecognized capital gains

Where is the evidence for this?

Effectively, Elon has avoided future California capital gains taxes by moving. Those are the facts of his move.

Personally, I would rather pay a few points extra on capital gains and income taxes to avoid Texas.

Just look at what the Texas AG is doing right now:

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2020/12/08/texas-ag...

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by misiti3780 on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:02PM (#25361497)
Here is the thing though - it's not just a "few extra points".

By my calculation its 13.3% more living in California in state income tax savings alone. That is a huge amount of money for Elon, but is also a huge amount of money for people working on a SV salary. It could be more than a mortgage payment. There are probably additional savings with less regulation etc

California is not a state anyone should want to do business in in 2020.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by reducesuffering on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:56PM (#25362623)
That's a disingenuous representation of how much extra state income taxes are paid. 13.3% is the rate for single income above $1,000,0000. A richly paid SV worker making $500k single pays 8.75% to the state of CA effectively.[0]

[0] https://smartasset.com/taxes/california-tax-calculator#6NtLs...

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by misiti3780 on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:02PM (#25362769)
Fair, then maybe we can agree on the following:

"If your household income is > 1MM and you live in California, it is not surprising that you would want to leave"

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by ohazi on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:30PM (#25361993)
> for people working on a SV salary

Most Californians don't get to keep their SV salary when they move to Texas.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by misiti3780 on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:50PM (#25362501)
What data are you basing that on - Austin is not cheap, and it's probably getting a lot more expensive now that everyone is moving there.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by pchristensen on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:46PM (#25363575)
I looked at Austin a few years ago, and after seeing the salaries I could find vs the cost of housing for 5 in a highly rated school district, I didn't even apply anywhere.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by bayesbot on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @05:03PM (#25365899)
I'm guessing it's a good option if you already have a good amount of home equity from a higher paying area though.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by robszumski on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:16PM (#25361728)
Aside: California is notorious for going after income that was "earned" in CA even if you no longer reside in the state. They'll still be collecting $$ from him for years to come.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by threeseed on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:53PM (#25363695)
Texas AG is just doing that to get a Presidential pardon.

It's pretty despicable that he is willing to throw the country under the bus for his own personal benefit.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by chillwaves on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @03:05PM (#25363932)
While half the country cheers on. How many of those half actually believe in what's happening and how many are just along for the ride, pursuit of power above all else?

It's sickening how a coup attempt is being normalized by our media.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by boardwaalk on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:01PM (#25362745)
The big cities are something like 70/25 blue/red as of 2020, and you can be pretty sure they despise Ken Paxton et al. If you want to expand “the area you live in where people agree with me” to states the size of Texas/California, you can do that. But it seems a little silly to me. And you’ll have made a difference via voting when/if Texas votes these people out.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by mlindner on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @07:10PM (#25367523)
California keeps trying to get "wealth taxes" on the ballot. That is exactly taxing of unrecognized capital gains.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by Darmody on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:34PM (#25362089)
Capital gains and the new magical tax on the wealth that democrats want. They don't have enough taxing you for what you earn so they decided to tax you for what you're worth.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by cma on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @10:42AM (#25359699)
How much in subsidies did he get from California?
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by dimitrios1 on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @10:49AM (#25359784)
Nothing in comparison to what states offered. Giving businesses subsidies to attract more employers isn't anything unique to California.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by cma on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @11:41AM (#25360508)
He got something like $180 million from California for the faked/minimal battery swap effort alone.

Basically $180 million to make this commercial and a couple scrapped demo stations:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5V0vL3nnHY

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by atomi on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @11:51AM (#25360630)
HN is not immune to political biases especially when it comes to taxes.

Nobody likes taxes and if you can either avoid them or recoup them through subsidies it makes you "smart."

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by akavi on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @02:05PM (#25362826)
It's a bit incoherent to offer subsidies to encourage the creation of new tech and then get mad at people for taking you up on the offer.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by itsoktocry on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:23PM (#25361846)
>Nothing in comparison to what states offered.

For the factories, maybe.

What about the rebate to car purchasers for many years, making California Tesla's biggest market? That is substantial.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by warkdarrior on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @05:29PM (#25366200)
California changed their EV rebate rules in Dec. 2019, instating an MSRP cap of $60,000. Many (most?) Tesla cars cost more than $60,000 so Tesla buyers will not get the CA EV rebate.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by cloudinshape on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @10:49AM (#25359790)
Probably a lot.

Now that he's not there other willing people will have the chance to apply to those subsidies aware of the new regulations and the change in direction the state is taking.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by SV_BubbleTime on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:56PM (#25362634)
> If CA were to aggressively pursue such a policy, they would likely go after anyone they perceived as fleeing just ahead of it.

Sure makes me want to run a business and be successful in CA.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by sidlls on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @10:45AM (#25359734)
It likely posed an appreciable risk to his business ventures that CA at some point will try to tax unrecognized capital gains,

People like Musk leverage their paper wealth into real (risky) loans and the like to support their business ventures (and personal lives)--part of the "socialize risk, privatize profits" model of pseudo-capitalism they practice.

A thoughtless approach to taxing unrecognized gains is not a good idea, but I certainly understand why it might be considered, at least for some minimum threshold. There's already something like this in the way some stock options are handled: individuals are taxed at exercise on the difference between the FMV and the strike price, whether they sell or not. I don't see why a similar principal couldn't be made to work with actual equities, at least for some high-value accounts/holdings.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by elindbe2 on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @10:53AM (#25359865)
Socializing what risk? What are you even talking about? Musk put his entire fortune from PayPal on the line for Tesla knowing that in all probability it would fail. It turned out well for him but it was still a huge risk he took.

I would argue that the opposite is true. California wants a larger cut of profits from business activity within their borders without any risk on their part, or even having to provide better services than competing states.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by selectodude on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @03:19PM (#25364157)
I'm curious how many people educated by the University of California work for Elon Musk.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by elindbe2 on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @04:15PM (#25365124)
Yeah I wonder how many people work for Musk and pay taxes to California while building EVs that reduce pollution in California.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by cryptica on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @04:21PM (#25365231)
>> Musk put his entire fortune from PayPal on the line for Tesla knowing that in all probability it would fail. It turned out well for him but it was still a huge risk he took.

For sure Elon Musk is a very smart guy and he works really hard and he knows how to deliver amazing products and his PR skills are amazing... That said, we can't deny that he got a lot of support from the US government. Without US government help (e.g. subsidies, grants, carbon credits), he probably would have failed flat on his face like all other geniuses. His ability to secure government support had more to do with luck (history and social connections) than skill.

So as great as Elon Musk is, he did socialize a lot of his risk.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by elindbe2 on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @04:25PM (#25365301)
> For sure Elon Musk is a very smart guy and he works really hard and he knows how to deliver amazing products and his PR skills are amazing...

And again, don't ignore the part where he used his entire PayPal fortune to build a company that he thought had a high probability of failure. That's key to this conversation about risk.

The government chose to take on the risk of providing subsidies in order to get the benefits it enjoys today due to Musk's efforts, which is a growing electric vehicle industry. That wasn't Musk's choice to socialize risk, it was elected officials'. And that choice has paid off well for everyone.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by cryptica on Thursday December 10, 2020 @10:56AM (#25375026)
>> The government chose to take on the risk

Government officials didn't risk anything, they risked other people's money (tax payers). That's literally the meaning of "socializing the risk."

It was certainly his choice to apply for government aid and to use his exposure in the media to give himself leverage over politicians.

It's fine to think well of Musk but to suggest that it's all perfect and fair game is extremely misleading.

Him and the rest of the Paypal mafia have been hoarding attention in the media for decades... Hoarding opportunities.

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by elindbe2 on Thursday December 10, 2020 @02:24PM (#25377389)
> Government officials didn't risk anything, they risked other people's money

Government has its own accounts, therefore it has its own money to spend. It doesn't matter that they get that money from taxpayers, it belongs to the government by law.

> leverage over politicians

What leverage over politicians was used and what objectives did it achieve? Please give specific examples. AFAIK, the EV credits were designed to get more EVs on the road to reduce pollution and were successful at doing that. They are also not limited to Tesla.

> hoarding attention

What does that mean? You're complaining that people write articles about Musk?

Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by gradys on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @10:48AM (#25359767)
Why does taking private loans against his private assets count as socializing risk? The banks he gets these loans from understand the risk and do not represent "society".
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by InitialLastName on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @12:32PM (#25361145)
As we've seen, when banks' habits of making bad loans catch up with them they tend to get bailed out by the federal government.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by gradys on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @01:40PM (#25362238)
If you mean 2008, yeah, you're right, but those were mostly loans to relatively low income people buying homes, not loans against billionaires' unrealized capital gains.
Re:Elon Musk moves to Texas by sidlls on Wednesday December 09, 2020 @04:52PM (#25365753)
Those were mostly covering obligations in the huge CDS market that grew up around bad loans, not the loans themselves.