The Slate and Fathom are going to sell like hotcakes in the US.

Everything that's cheap will sell like hotcakes, but that doesn't mean the companies selling them will make much profit from them.

There is more than one definition of "very successful". Maximizing shareholder value isn't everything.

Maximizing shareholder value is not the most important consideration. The most important consideration is don't go bankrupt. Once you have a product that sells, you can start asking, well how can I maximize shareholder value? But you have to make those sales in the first place or you're going to go bankrupt and that is far worse for shareholders than not getting maximum value.

Successful companies well understand they don't know exactly what maximizing shareholder value requires. They are always making small experiments to see what really works in the market. Many of those they know will fail and in turn cost shareholder value because of a bad investment. But you have to try bad investments in order to find one that is good.

It’s also important to remember that while some people talk like there’s a legal responsibility to maximize shareholders value which forces businesses to make decisions focused on short-term profits, those people are simply wrong. There’s an extraordinary level of deference given to executive discretion which means it’s quite rare to see successful lawsuits for anything plausibly good-faith. For example, right now there’s a fad to lay people off but any business which chooses instead to invest in their capacity is unlikely to even be threatened with a shareholder lawsuit because no court in the country is going to say that “we are investing in long-term capacity” was clearly wrong.

Constant growth is capitalism and it's so damned flawed.

I wonder if anybody wrote about this problem, like, a century and a half ago.

High volume, low margin is a completely legit strategy.

That works for foodstuffs but not the manufacturing industry. Because you know people need to eat, always. They don't need a new truck all the time.

I have a slate preorder but it's a niche vehicle. It's a small 2 door 2wd pickup that can't meaningfully tow and has a 200 mi range.

It's not going to appeal to people who want a truck as a symptom of fragile insecurities around their masculinity and that's a biiiig part of the US truck market

I think the Fathom will outsell the Slate 10 to 1 despite costing more, because U.S. buyers have adapted to "luxury" in every trim level of vehicle. I mean, yes base level Corollas still sell quite well (but these days even those have features you dreamt about in a luxury sedan not too many decades ago.)

The Slate represents an ideology that combines the nostalgia of what trucks used to be (especially the Ford Ranger) with a modern EV powertrain, but most people don't actually want the stripped down basic vehicle, even if their eyes light up over the idea.

> The Slate represents an ideology that combines the nostalgia of what trucks used to be (especially the Ford Ranger) with a modern EV powertrain, but most people don't actually want the stripped down basic vehicle, even if their eyes light up over the idea.

I have debated this extensively with some friends. I *jumped* at the slate pre-order precisely because it doesn't have any 'luxury' trim options. I don't want to pay out the nose for a fancy infotainment system that will use the cheapest possible under powered electronics from a decade ago, run a 10 year old version of android that spies on me, gets no useful updates...etc.

I certainly have my biases but I suspect that most people only _tolerate_ most of the painpoints w/ the various 'luxury' items in their cars and if given the opportunity to start simple and upgrade they would.

> but most people don't actually want the stripped down basic vehicle

Perhaps. But if you put two options side-by-side and show people what they get at the two different price points, I'd bet that the ~30k slate compared to the ~ 50k typical new car price will get a decent chunk of people thinking about what _else_ they could do with 20k in savings.

>I'd bet that the ~30k slate compared to the ~ 50k typical new car price will get a decent chunk of people thinking about what _else_ they could do with 20k in savings.

The overwhelm majority of new car purchases is the US aren’t based on sales price, but monthly payment.

For the vast majority of buyers, an extra $50 a month for some luxury features is the easiest upsell in the world. They simply don’t think through the savings, they think “I want heated seats, better sound, etc”

I also think that the reason we see so many crew cab trucks is because people are well and over the "move front seat forward and then squeeze yourself into the back" rear passenger experience the market used to accept when coupes and extended cab trucks had significant sales. The Slate not having 4 doors is going to be a big deficiency when it's cross-shopped against the Fathom.

Because cybertruck is a bad truck.

bad truck suggests it's bad at being truck not just... at everything related to transport

Most vehicles are used to get one person to and from work every day. There are a lot of people who don't have kids or only have one kids and so they don't need use passenger space or hauling capacity. The Cybertruck is aerodynamically terrible, but if people are not using it as a truck, well I guess it's transport that works for them.

However, people are talking about the same truck as if it is a truck. And it's a terrible truck for people who need a truck. On the other hand, a lot of other trucks are also terrible at being a truck for the people who need a truck. You have to go into the three-quarter ton or one-ton range to find a decent truck these days, even though a modern half-ton probably has more power and weight carrying capacity than a 30-year-old three-quarter ton truck. The way it's set up means it's not going to work as well as a truck. The 30-year-old truck is going to have a longer bed, which is something that someone who needs a truck is going to want in the truck.

Very frustrating that trucks have morphed into tank-like SUVs with small beds tacked on back. Expensive and has every fancy feature one could want ... except the thing that makes it a pick-up truck

A lot of that is US tax code making it cheaper if the car (truck) is big enough.

This doesn't pass the smell test to me. I would like to buy a single-cab (or small second row) pick-up truck with a modest carrying capacity and a large bed. The reason the market basically gave up on making these 10-15 years ago is ... tax code? A reference would be helpful for me here.

The fuel economy standards (CAFE) take the footprint (size) of the vehicle in count. Once the vehicle is big enough (wide in this case) it effectively falls completely outside the rules saving the manufacturer a lot of money in fees/taxes.

For imports “light trucks” get a nice extra 25% tariff (been around since 1963)

If you own a business and actually use it for work then you a bigger tax brake if it weighs over 6000 pounds.

In Europe most of the people who in US actually need trucks just use vans instead. Way more space and more protected from weather (and people)

It's also illegal to sell in EU because of how bad it is for pedestrian safety.

Cybertruck is only available in countries that don't want EVs.

This isn't about the idea of electric trucks.

This is specifically about the Tesla Cybertruck, which has been shown to be fairly shoddy in construction AND is tied to a very, very divisive figure.

Overpriced, not good at being a truck, eDong, yep.

I think the cybertruck appeals to a very narrow market. It's too expensive for most people who just want a big vehicle to get groceries and run kids to around, and doesn't really have any qualities that make it useful for commercial use, outside of being a rolling billboard. Unless it just really appeals to you and you have cash to burn, I don't know why you'd buy a cybertruck over a Ram/Ford/GM.

It’s a status symbol masquerading as a utility vehicle.

Aka 99% of trucks.

While we could quibble on the exact percentage, I think that's the point. Why spend $100K on an ugly status vehicle, when you could just get any half-ton pickup quad-cab short bed and prove to the world how big of a truck you have, but only spend $50-60K?!

The Cybertruck is weird and a "status" symbol, but most people want to fit in, but also have the "nicest" looking status symbol, so they convince themselves that "this particular truck" is really nice. (And also if I own it, it's clear I do lots of hard physical things.)

also a status symbol inextricably linked to elon's "brand" which doesnt help

And it failed at it too.

People who buy trucks as a status symbol want to be "tough". And Tesla clearly intended to appeal to "tough guys", it is big, powerful, and supposedly indestructible. Elon even twitted at some point that it would destroy the other car in a collision, a morally questionable comment, but the implications are clear, a though vehicle for people who don't give a fuck about others.

And then, they managed to break the unbreakable window during the presentation, followed by the rusty trucks, and most importantly, the whole fiasco with glued panels that came off. So, you market a tough vehicle, but it falls appart. Who is going to buy that?

Trucks are a status symbol in the USA. EVs were becoming acceptable in the mainstram, hence the initial surge in sales, but that has cooled off since 2024. Now very few outside of the big tech cities are spending money on EVs. Hence the fate of the electric F-150 as well.

The Cybertruck is not very good at being a truck, but it is very good at being a social signifier.

I don't think this is a failure of electric trucks, it's a failure of this specific design.

Look at the F150 lightening to see the failure of electric trucks. Chevy, Dodge and Ford all have, and it shows. Chevy's electric Silverado has a lot more range because more people want a truck for towing than the 1% that hacker news claims, and so range became and issue. Ford and Dodge are instead looking at plug in hybrids for the future: use an engine when towing, and battery for acceleration and shorter trips.

Yes those are better examples. But the cybertruck situation was sui generis.

That's electric semi trucks. The market for pickup trucks in general in China would be pretty small.