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Re:This is a teenager by subpixel on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @12:46PM (#40054247)
Positive relationships with adults is shown to be means of counteracting adverse childhood experiences.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8237477/

I volunteer in a local school. It's not always fun, but something has to change.

Re:This is a teenager by fzeindl on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @03:28PM (#40056159)
This is old news.

Basically children in bad situations need just one reliable person who believes in them in their lives.

What it does is making them realize that it’s not them who are doing something wrong but that their surroundings are flawed. The problem begins when children start to believe everything is their own fault.

Re:This is a teenager by Jerrrry on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @03:47PM (#40056352)
ding ding ding!

I call it "Bastard's Syndrome"

Re:This is a teenager by hn_throwaway_99 on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @05:31PM (#40057461)
> What it does is making them realize that it’s not them who are doing something wrong but that their surroundings are flawed. The problem begins when children start to believe everything is their own fault.

This is only tangentially related, but I think your point is critically important. Relatively recently I did ketamine infusion therapy for depression, and it was life changing for me. Ketamine is a "dissociative", and one thing that it seriously helped me do was separate my "self" from my depression, which I've never really been able to do before despite decades of trying through therapy. That is, now that I see depression as a chronic condition I have (say perhaps analogous to people that have to deal with migraines), as opposed to something that I am at my core, it makes it much, much less scary and threatening to me.

In my experience, I've noticed that the people who I think of as the most successful (both from a society-wide and personal perspective) have the clearest view of what is their control and what they can accomplish, and also what is not. A huge benefit of this is that when they see an obstacle that some person could potentially overcome, even if it would be very, very difficult, they tend to think "Heck, why not me?" And when they do hit setbacks because of the unpredictability of the world, they don't take it personally, they just tend to think "Well, the world is chaotic - is this new problem something that can reasonably be overcome?" I contrast with a mindset I had for a long time (which a large part I think was a consequence of being bullied) that if I put a lot of effort into something and just didn't succeed, it was fundamentally because I wasn't "good enough", so why bother trying that hard at something else as I'm likely not going to be good enough there either.

Re:This is a teenager by quadragenarian on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @09:20PM (#40059374)
Very true. Self-confidence and grit are immensely important in overcoming or even just rationalizing the obstacles of life, doing so in an almost logical way without letting a person's self-defeating emotions or perceived shortcomings get in the way. It's such a huge divider and it singularly is based on what kind of adult(s) that person had in their life when they were young.
Re:This is a teenager by naasking on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @05:37PM (#40057529)
> What it does is making them realize that it’s not them who are doing something wrong but that their surroundings are flawed

Speculative. I rather think that it shows them that there are other ways of living and that they have agency to get there.

Re:This is a teenager by fzeindl on Wednesday April 17, 2024 @02:52AM (#40061314)
No. They can see that there are other ways of living by watching their peers or random people on the street.

But they need somebody to make them understand that it’s not them who are destroying the relationship with their surroundings and their chance for being happy but the other way around.

Some children in bad situations understand that without guidance but they are rare.

Re:This is a teenager by concordDance on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @06:25PM (#40058042)
> The problem begins when children start to believe everything is their own fault.

My experience is it's the opposite and you need to overcome learned helplessness and understand that you can change your life.

Are there any good studies that could tell us which of us is correct?

Re:This is a teenager by anotheruser13 on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @11:12PM (#40060043)
Learned helplessness can also afflict adults, especially those who are not accustomed to dealing with computers. I get that quite a bit, and it's not just older people. Young people who have only used tablets, phones, and Chromebooks also are affected. YMMV
Re:This is a teenager by quadragenarian on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @09:12PM (#40059330)
This is 100% accurate.

In the wise words of the late child psychologist Urie Bronfenbrenner, Professor Emeritus of Human Development and Psychology at Cornell:

In order to develop – intellectually emotionally, socially and morally – a child requires participation in progressively more complex reciprocal activity on a regular basis over an extended period in the child's life, with one or more persons with whom the child develops a strong, mutual, irrational, emotional attachment and who is committed to the child's well-being and development, preferably for life. (Bronfenbrenner, 1991, p. 2)

Or paraphrased by him:

“Every child needs at least one adult who is irrationally crazy about him or her.”

Re:This is a teenager by richardlblair on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @03:49PM (#40056372)
> I volunteer in a local school. It's not always fun, but something has to change

Teachers and volunteers are how I was able to find a better life. What you're doing matters.

Re:This is a teenager by causal on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @02:22PM (#40055443)
You can select a dropdown at the end for "Parenting style" which divides the groups by number of parents involved. This seems to be the strongest correlator of any of the data shown.
Re:This is a teenager by zeroonetwothree on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @03:24PM (#40056117)
Parenting style is much more likely to not be causative though
Re:This is a teenager by drawkward on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @03:38PM (#40056263)
Citation, please?
Re:This is a teenager by naasking on Wednesday April 17, 2024 @12:42AM (#40060500)
Studies of identical twins raised apart, like MISTRA, show remarkable similarities in life outcomes and big five personality traits. There's a big genetic component, and the time spent with parents is dwarfed by time spent with others once they start school, so the role of parenting style on life outcomes would have to have a significant outsized effect compared to all other life experiences.

If I recall correctly, absent neglect or abuse, parental influence doesn't matter as much as people think.

Re:This is a teenager by causal on Wednesday April 17, 2024 @11:37AM (#40066203)
This isn't really a citation, and your twins-study outcomes argument blaming genetics also undermines every other conclusion of TFA.
Re:This is a teenager by naasking on Wednesday April 17, 2024 @11:44AM (#40066284)
MISTRA is a citation, it's a well-known name, just Google the study. Also:

1. TFA article talked only about correlations, because that's all they have.

2. Genetics influences all of TFA factors as well.

3. TFA discussed "adverse experiences", "parents involved" and "family risk scores". Guess what I said: parenting really only has a significant effect in cases of neglect and abuse. Sounds like we agree.

Re:This is a teenager by causal on Wednesday April 17, 2024 @12:39PM (#40067105)
"Just Google it" - really? I have no doubt MISTRA exists, but demonstrating specifically where and how a study proves your point is something else entirely.

The core assertion that parental involvement doesn't matter much as long as they're not abusive is pretty absurd regardless, but I'll leave the Googling of studies showing why as an exercise for you.

Re:This is a teenager by polloslocos on Friday April 19, 2024 @01:16AM (#40083643)
This recent Atlantic article does a decent job at summarizing the argument: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/04/parenting-...

And these two books have good, if somewhat redundant surveys of the research:

- No Two Alike: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1099821

- Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/10266902

The tl;dr is that if you fall into the cohort that could likely adopt a child, your parenting decisions aren’t going to make much of an impact, beyond affecting your kid’s memories of their childhood and their relationship with you. And that doesn’t mean parents should become apathetic, but that it’s better to care about expressing warmth and kindness instead of stressing about achievement.

Re:This is a teenager by gowld on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @06:12PM (#40057899)
Strong argument for helping more parents be more involved.
Re:This is a teenager by toomuchtodo on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @12:54PM (#40054355)
Less kids in households that don't want them. This is a pipeline problem. Intentional children only. Hard topic to cover online, nuance and emotions on the topic.

> I volunteer in a local school. It's not always fun, but something has to change.

You're a good person doing necessary work. There aren't enough humans doing it, but it matters to who you're helping.

Re:This is a teenager by bumby on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @12:58PM (#40054396)
Related, and equally hard to cover online:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legalized_abortion_and_crime_e...

Re:This is a teenager by toomuchtodo on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @12:59PM (#40054417)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39978774 ("HN: Steven Levitt and John Donohue defend the abortion-crime hypothesis")

https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/04/08/steven-le... | https://archive.today/m3zl0 ("Steven Levitt and John Donohue defend a finding made famous by “Freakonomics”")

Re:This is a teenager by throwway120385 on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @01:16PM (#40054608)
It would also help if more people that are doing marginal work could receive a wage that they felt secure with. Money is one of the biggest stressors for couples and families.
Re:This is a teenager by bsimpson on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @02:40PM (#40055652)
I don't understand how to practically make this work.

There's a strong case to be made that a minimum wage helps people whose value approaches the minimum while hurting people above or below (e.g. $12 and $18 wages in an unlimited market both round to $15 with a minimum, while someone who only produces $7 of value is no longer employable). Similarly with cash infusions - giving people more money is inflationary.

Nobody wants to live in a world where people are trying to participate in society and failing. That's truly heartbreaking.

At the same time, naive solutions (decide a "living wage" and force people to pay it, set up and enforce rent control, give out stimulus payments) seem to have a lot of second-order effects/unintended consequences without actually solving the problems they're meant to solve.

Re:This is a teenager by Misdicorl on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @03:13PM (#40056011)
My personal position is to abolish the minimum wage and update the tax scale with negative tax rates that support a reasonable quality of life at all income levels. The market will find its own balance for what a true minimum wage is in that environment (and not have weird perverse incentives like you state).

Yes, this is UBI. But phrased as a tax cut makes it politically viable (at least in the US).

Re:This is a teenager by bsimpson on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @03:26PM (#40056142)
I would be interested to see this modeled.

One of the classic unintended consequences of social welfare is making someone at the bottom unwilling to work. We saw this during the pandemic when people in formerly low-wage jobs got a lot of cash assistance and stopped being interested in low-wage jobs. (Remember all the "help wanted" signs and early closing hours at local restaurants?)

I'm curious to see an example scale that would continue to incentivize social behavior the whole way up the chain - avoiding the "oh I don't want to make $100 more dollars because I'm in a sweet spot now and bad things happen at $99."

You can certainly argue that many of the current disincentives are bugs in the bureaucracy. I'd like to see a proposal for the UBI tax scale you describe that doesn't have any bugs (that is, bumps in the distribution where people are afraid to reach for state C from state A, because the intermediary state B is worse than A).

Re:This is a teenager by Misdicorl on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @04:10PM (#40056582)
Very much agreed that there should be no cliffs. Every dollar earned should at minimum increase your usable cash flow by at least X amount no matter where you are in the income distribution and other tax incentive phase space
Re:This is a teenager by Freebytes on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @03:34PM (#40056219)
We should not make it more than $1000 per month. Very few would choose to be poor. It would put a lot of pressure on companies to pay decent wages, though.
Re:This is a teenager by Misdicorl on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @04:46PM (#40056975)
$1000/month is $12,000/year. Thats far far below poverty levels. It needs to be enough that people can choose to supplement in order to engage with luxury consumption. If people are forced to supplement to just survive, then we need to maintain the minimum wage and a whole host of other weird baggage.
Re:This is a teenager by naniwaduni on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @07:33PM (#40058667)
The 2024 FPL figure is $15060 + 5380 per additional person family member past the first. $12k/head/year comes up a bit short for an individual, but it's not that far off—expenses involved in holding down a job probably actually account for the difference anyway.

It also becomes clearly tenable with households of more than 1. Supporting a family of 2-3 on $24k-36k is like, yep, I've met married international grad students. Of course they'll spring for supplemental income where available, but as a baseline it is tenuously "enough".

Re:This is a teenager by Misdicorl on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @09:35PM (#40059470)
The goal can't be to solve every desperation case. But if the program wouldn't allow individuals living in dangerous and exploitative situations to confidently leave them (financially) Id argue the program was a failure
Re:This is a teenager by KittenInABox on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @04:12PM (#40056599)
> One of the classic unintended consequences of social welfare is making someone at the bottom unwilling to work. We saw this during the pandemic when people in formerly low-wage jobs got a lot of cash assistance and stopped being interested in low-wage jobs. (Remember all the "help wanted" signs and early closing hours at local restaurants?)

I remember this, the cash assistance gave people back their time to focus on starting their own businesses, pursuing self-education, taking care of their kids, etc. It was fully apparent to me that these low-wage jobs effectively trapped people by sucking up all the time they had for self-improvement.

Re:This is a teenager by magicalist on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @05:15PM (#40057319)
> We saw this during the pandemic when people in formerly low-wage jobs got a lot of cash assistance and stopped being interested in low-wage jobs. (Remember all the "help wanted" signs and early closing hours at local restaurants?)

Unwilling to work or temporarily not desperate to stay alive? How many receiving assistance were still working, just doing it less?

The only studies on outcomes I recall is that a lot of kids were no longer experiencing food insecurity.

Re:This is a teenager by kulahan on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @06:48PM (#40058268)
I can’t imagine they were very compelling studies if the only changes they could come up with was “some kids were less hungry”
Re:This is a teenager by naasking on Wednesday April 17, 2024 @12:47AM (#40060527)
Someone doesn't understand the effects of food insecurity:

https://www.heart.org/en/news/2021/09/22/food-insecuritys-lo...

Re:This is a teenager by kulahan on Saturday April 20, 2024 @01:47AM (#40095132)
I don’t understand the effects of food security because I think there’s more than one problem?
Re:This is a teenager by int_19h on Wednesday April 17, 2024 @02:28AM (#40061147)
That "classic unintended consequence" was specifically tested many times in UBI context, and study after study doesn't find it in any noticeable amount.

In any case, given how badly broken the current system is, surely it's at least worth a try?

Re:This is a teenager by Freebytes on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @03:33PM (#40056207)
It is important that this is based on all income levels equally. Yes, some will pay back that money in taxes, but the important part is keeping the amount equal. It would be even more effective if you gave them a monthly check (even if you would eventually take it all back via a consumption tax on people earning more). A ~25% national sales tax should be sufficient to cover a UBI program. (We should still have an income tax, though.) Furthermore, a consumption tax would decrease unnecessary spending since you can target only new products and not used products to encourage people to reduce, reuse, and recycle.
Re:This is a teenager by Misdicorl on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @04:15PM (#40056623)
If UBI is encoded as a negative tax rate at low income levels, it no longer really makes sense to talk about it as applying to all income levels equally. It naturally gets distributed as

1) A check (issued by Social Security service?) if income is less than X

2) Less of your paycheck being withheld if your income is greater than X (or more if you're significantly above X, depending on how this gets funded)

Re:This is a teenager by naniwaduni on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @05:12PM (#40057291)
We have a tax rate with negative tax rates at the low end of the scale. For sketchy social policy/political tenability reasons it doubles as a child subsidy and phases in up to a nominal amount of preexisting so-called earned income, but functionally that's what the earned income tax credit is.

Expansion of the EITC program is fairly well-regarded among economists and has been historically quite popular! We should do more of it!

Re:This is a teenager by Misdicorl on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @05:18PM (#40057351)
True. It would be nice to decouple it from children and expand its scope of economic impact dramatically.
Re:This is a teenager by pants2 on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @03:26PM (#40056140)
I have a family member that is severely disabled. She used to be on a program where the government would supplement her wages - she worked at Jack in the Box, where her employer would pay like $3/hr and the government would top that up to $10/hr.

Now that program is gone and minimum wage for fast food is $20/hr. She simply cannot perform $20/hr worth of work, so she's unemployed (and living on government assistance).

The previous arrangement was fantastic because the work gave her a purpose and something to do all day, and she contributed to society while saving the government money. Now she stays home and watches TV endlessly.

This has informed my ideas - I think supplementing minimum wages could be a better alternative to UBI (with some exceptions).

Re:This is a teenager by Clubber on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @04:22PM (#40056697)
There's usually carveouts for people with certain disabilities. It allows companies to pay them below the minimum wage. I would be surprised if that was abolished with the increase in minimum wage.
Re:This is a teenager by trogdor on Wednesday April 17, 2024 @09:51AM (#40064587)
It’s a federal law, and it still exists.

https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/fact-sheets/39-14c-subminim...

Re:This is a teenager by adrianN on Wednesday April 17, 2024 @06:21AM (#40062631)
She could do some volunteer work.
Re:This is a teenager by ineptech on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @03:37PM (#40056247)
> someone who only produces $7 of value is no longer employable

This is the wrong model. You're using a worker's wage to describe their productivity, and a big reason for the mess we're in is that wages stopped increasing with productivity fifty years ago. (search "wages productivity graph")

Re:This is a teenager by bsimpson on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @03:47PM (#40056355)
This feels like you're nitpicking the language, not the thinking.

Imagine someone's contribution to a business increases revenue by $1000 and the total cost to employ that person for the same period is $800. Do you think most businesses would go "nope, we only hire highly leveraged people who produce $2000 in revenue"?

There are inefficiencies in scale (like communication/bookkeeping overhead) that might disincentivize a business from growing, but generally speaking, I think it's fine to model decisions as rational cost/benefit ones.

Workers who are only "worth it" at some wage. Nobody is going to pay you a million dollars to go sell a hundred dollars worth of stuff. If the value you can earn on the market is sufficiently lower than what someone is allowed to pay, they simply won't hire you. That's bad for everyone.

Re:This is a teenager by valrix on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @07:25PM (#40058607)
Except an employee's contribution isn't static, while their cost is.

$7.25 x 8 hours = $58 for the day. However what they create is based on output, which for most businesses, varies day by day along with their sales.

A McDonald's could sell 500 burgers in one day at one location, but only 300 at another. In this case the employee at the larger restaurant generates 2/5 more value than the employee at the smaller one, even if both can output at the same speed and quality. So, in reality, the employee at the larger restaurant is being exploited by 2/5 more than the employee at the smaller location. Which also means the employee at the smaller location is getting paid more for doing 2/5 less work than an equally capable employee.

Profits are multiplicative yet unpredictable, while labor is static and predictable.

Re:This is a teenager by ineptech on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @08:00PM (#40058870)
Comparing someone's wage to the value they produce is a fine way for a company to decide whether to hire someone, but I didn't think that was the question you were trying to answer, was it? Perhaps I misunderstood, but I thought you were asking something like, what policy would help people who are at the margins, which is an economy-wide question that can't be answered from one employer's perspective. Workers may only be "worth it" at some wage, at some point in time, but that wage is subject to supply and demand just like everything else. A policy intervention like raising the minimum wage will alter that supply/demand curve.

For example, suppose janitors all make the minimum wage. If we increase it, there might be some company at the margin that will go without janitorial services, but most companies will pay their janitors the new wage, which (from the "a worker costs $X and produces $Y" model's perspective) will look a lot like the nation's janitors suddenly started producing more value. Ergo, it's not to say that that model is wrong, just that it's not useful in answering a question like should we increase the minimum wage.

Re:This is a teenager by Aunche on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @04:03PM (#40056506)
A rather low hanging fruit is smoothing out welfare cliffs so poor people don't feel stuck in an position of a local maximum of utility near the bottom. The problem is that these initiatives are very complicated, and you get more public support just blindly throwing money at the problem.
Re:This is a teenager by bjt on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @02:50PM (#40055777)
I don't think it works if we're narrowly focused just on wages, but I don't know why that has to be the only focus. If we as a society want to support people having a baseline quality of life, then let's pay for it together rather than pushing it all on employers.

I don't think we put enough money behind it today, but the Earned Income Tax Credit is designed to do this while minimizing the disincentives for people to work. https://www.cbpp.org/research/policy-basics-the-earned-incom...

Re:This is a teenager by SkyBelow on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @03:19PM (#40056057)
>If we as a society want to support people having a baseline quality of life, then let's pay for it together rather than pushing it all on employers.

Baseline quality of life isn't decided just by pay. I find that society doesn't support people having a baseline quality of life when it comes to areas other than pay, so it makes me question the motives of society in the case of pay.

Re:This is a teenager by throwway120385 on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @04:56PM (#40057098)
The real issue is that a few people have accumulated a lot of wealth and property, and they use it as a tool to extract even more money. It's basically the late stage capitalism money vacuum hoovering up everything. In the past the only levers we had against this were breaking up firms and enforcing anti-monopoly and preventing capital from even entering certain parts of our economy. We could, for example, ban private equity companies from buying houses and healthcare companies, break up national monopolies into regional companies, and eliminate a lot of the consolidation that has traditionally enhanced the bargaining power of the company owner against the employees.

In the short term it would make a lot of stuff less efficient, but when people talk about "efficiency" they really mean driving costs down and driving income up. So we really don't want an efficient capitalist economy, we want a capitalist economy that is just efficient enough to meet our needs while not being so efficient that a few people can exploit that efficiency and run away with our things.

Re:This is a teenager by carom on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @05:22PM (#40057393)
Abolish the minimum wage along with density restrictions in zoning. Make it affordable for someone making $300 per month to have shelter.
Re:This is a teenager by toomuchtodo on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @01:25PM (#40054740)
I do not disagree. But it will take years, if not decades, for labor rights and organizing to improve the situation you mention. Preventing unwanted children takes less time and effort, tragic as it is to type out.
Re:This is a teenager by smeej on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @03:23PM (#40056105)
You can change up the emotions on the topic pretty quickly if you change the framing to "intentional sex only" rather than "intentional children only," even though the former accomplishes the latter.

It's fun, because you can get virtually everyone to agree that people should only have sex they mean to have, but as soon as you suggest they should only have sex when all parties involved have carefully and accurately assessed the risk of pregnancy, you're a killjoy.

Re:This is a teenager by NoMoreNicksLeft on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @02:36PM (#40055597)
> Intentional children only.

Speedrunning human extinction?

Re:This is a teenager by toomuchtodo on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @02:47PM (#40055733)
Are you suggesting that humanity will die out so long as only willing, intentional parents have children? That is an interesting thesis and conclusion to come to (total fertility rate = 0 vs somewhere between 0 and 2.1 [replacement rate]).

We should empower people who want children to succeed, and empower people who don't want children to never have them. What happens after that, we can solve for.

Re:This is a teenager by somenameforme on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @03:06PM (#40055962)
I think many people have a misunderstanding of what lower fertility means. Imagine a country has a fertility rate of 1. It doesn't seem that bad because it's pretty close to replacement. But fertility is an exponential system. So a fertility rate of means that each following generation (~20 years) will be half as large as the one that came before it (the formula is simply a ratio of fertility_rate/2). So you won't see any problem at all until the first generation to have low fertility starts to die. At that point you suddenly start seeing a rapid exponential effect. Every ~20 years (the size of a generation) your population size will be decreasing by 50% !!! And this never stops until you go extinct (which won't take particularly long), or start having children again.

It's easy to imagine 'oh we'll just fix it if it becomes a serious problem like that' but imagine the state of society when that starts happening. All markets/consumption will be decreasing by 50% every 20 years, there will be a very upside down population pyramid where the overwhelming majority of the population will be elderly and need care, so forth and so on. Japan, for instance, hasn't even hit the worst of it yet. Their fertility plummeted about 40 years ago. So their 'final stage' is yet still about 20 years away. Today are the good times for Japan, relative to what they have ahead of them.

Given most of the Western world can't maintain a remotely stable fertility rate in the current situation, doing something that would likely quite substantially lower it even further is indeed speedrunning the extinction of Western civilization!

Re:This is a teenager by lancesells on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @03:24PM (#40056118)
> imagine the state of society when that starts happening

The state of my own personal society is my apartment costs $1000 more than it did two years ago and my food costs about 25-30% more than it did two years ago. I definitely wouldn't consider having another kid, nor would I encourage my own to have one.

Re:This is a teenager by somenameforme on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @04:35PM (#40056844)
Absolutely understandable, yet it also leads to a somewhat odd and undesirable reality. The problems you're talking about are ones that we inflicted upon ourselves, owing largely due to poor systems (and societies) enabling the turds of society rise to the top.

So what will the systems and societies of tomorrow look like? Every child born tomorrow is basically just a lottery roll against all people having children today. And today you have vast numbers of intelligent, educated, conscientious, and far thinking individuals are simply removing themselves from the gene pool; that lottery roll for the children of tomorrow is looking less and less pleasant.

There's this irony that the sort of mindset that might consciously make the decision to not have children is the exact sort that should be raising a family 1800s style, if we want a better world. Maybe there's just something about successful urbanization that ultimately causes societies to reboot. The Roman Empire also faced a major fertility crisis in its final years.

Re:This is a teenager by toomuchtodo on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @03:22PM (#40056094)
Current global population is ~8 billion. Momentum will take us to ~10 billion by 2100. Will it be a challenge to manage this rapid population decline and attempting to provide real, meaningful community support [1] and social systems [2] to potential parents to encourage them to have children (in order to raise the total fertility rate to a steady state level)? Certainly, without any doubt or hesitation. We spent up a credit card balance of sorts with a ballooning global population, that debt will need to be paid back in various ways. But extinction? Hardly.

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/29/baby-boomtown-...

[2] https://ifstudies.org/blog/pro-natal-policies-work-but-they-...

Re:This is a teenager by et-al on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @03:29PM (#40056168)
We understand the implications, but I would not want anyone to bring forth children that are unwanted, thus bringing more unhappiness into those parents' lives (and their surrounding community).

Our society needs to treat children as a gift and not just "thoughts and prayers" about raising them.

Re:This is a teenager by worik on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @03:34PM (#40056213)
> speedrunning the extinction of Western civilization!

Western civilization was always a good idea, never achieved, and they have had their day

Re:This is a teenager by NoMoreNicksLeft on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @03:41PM (#40056295)
> I think many people have a misunderstanding of what lower fertility means. Imagine a country has a fertility rate of 1. It doesn't seem that bad because it's pretty close to replacement.

That's not even close to replacement. It's somewhere above 2 (often cited as 2.1, but it may be more like 2.04 in times of peace) for it to be replacement. If you could magically make fertility be that number, population increases would only come as a matter of life expectancy increase.

1 actually implies some sort of high-speed demographic implosion that will wreck an economy within a single human lifetime.

> It's easy to imagine 'oh we'll just fix it if it becomes a serious problem like that'

If it takes 30 years to recognize the problem, then one generation has already aged out of ever possibly being able to fix the problem, and the next generation is getting too old to be able to fix it (unless you can do so instantly). You've only got a few generations at a given time that can fix it.

> Japan, for instance, hasn't even hit the worst of it yet. Their fertility plummeted about 40 years ago.

There are fewer people living in Japan today, than there were a year ago. They didn't leave to go elsewhere. They died. And it will be like that every year until there are zero Japanese left. They have been functionally extinct for a few years now, though they may not know it yet.

> it even further is indeed speedrunning the extinction of Western civilization!

There haven't been distinct, compartmentalized civilizations on Earth for over a century at this point. There's only the one civilization. And, if it dies, there likely won't be another. Who had "can't be bothered to fuck" on their Fermi's Paradox bingo card?

Re:This is a teenager by maherbeg on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @05:37PM (#40057519)
Saying society is going to collapse due to population decline is about as absurd as saying society will collapse due to overpopulation.

What will end up happening is that some groups will maintain replacement fertility levels or higher, and some groups won't, but we'll trend towards an equilibrium, or flop between too little fertility and too much fertility. Either way we won't go extinct unless we explicitly kill each other.

Re:This is a teenager by somenameforme on Wednesday April 17, 2024 @10:03AM (#40064780)
It depends on what you mean by society. If you mean the entire world, then of course I agree with you. But cultures and societies do go extinct, quite regularly. The Roman Empire, most notably, also had a fertility collapse in their final years. And by the end Rome itself had just become a facsimile of what was once the greatest city of the greatest empire in the world.

So, for instance, many people don't realize that right now is still the good times for Japan. Here [1] is their population pyramid. It currently still looks kinda-sorta pyramidish. But in ~20 years, their population pyramid will be completely and wholly upside down. And their population, economy, and everything else will fall into complete collapse. They'll be losing about half of their population each 20 years at that point. No culture can survive this. This will be made even more true by the fact that it will likely trigger a vicious cycle where the massively skewed age ratios, collapsing economy, and other issues will further reduce fertility.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan#/media/F...

Re:This is a teenager by prmoustache on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @03:07PM (#40055964)
Even if it was the case, would it be a problem? What is more important, having less humans being happy or more humans having a crappy life. Why should specie survival be more important than overall happiness of those that would have lived?
Re:This is a teenager by somenameforme on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @03:21PM (#40056081)
This is a tangent, but when in the world did "happiness" become a desirable metric? If you think about it, it's really quite absurd. Happiness is a brief liminal state that should be triggered by relatively infrequent events. It is not a normal, nor desirable, default state.

Contentedness, satisfaction, at-peace, and so on - there endlessly more rational, logical, desirable, and attainable things to aim for. Yet everybody always says happy. Maybe this even goes some way towards explaining the plummeting mental state of the West at large. If one sets their life goal towards happiness, then they're ironically certain to end up unhappy, unsatisfied, and discontented.

Re:This is a teenager by zbentley on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @04:00PM (#40056474)
Agreed that affirmative happiness is very hard to think about as a target.

But I find that most people, when they say that, actually mean reduction of suffering. That's easier to quantify--but still quite difficult, like most quantities in social research.

Re:This is a teenager by somenameforme on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @05:06PM (#40057223)
Do you not then run into other problems? For instance I find that lifting brings an immense amount of contentedness, yet it's essentially hours upon hours of self inflicted suffering and pain. The same is true of family. Somebody raising a 2 year old could describe it in many ways, but reduction of suffering would not be one. Such things greatly contribute to this sense of contentedness and satisfaction.
Re:This is a teenager by lancesells on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @03:26PM (#40056138)
> Contentedness, satisfaction, at-peace, and so on

Could you explain to me how this is not another name for happiness?

Re:This is a teenager by somenameforme on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @03:46PM (#40056348)
They are extremely different states of being.

You are happy to receive good news, or for something to turn out well, or whatever else. But it is not a resting state. It's a liminal state. Contentedness, by contrast, is a resting state. You can awake contented, fall asleep contented, and spend your days contented. You may rarely, if ever, experience happiness - yet find yourself able to find satisfaction in life nonetheless.

By contrast a pitiful, depressed, self loathing individual, can experience happiness as much as anybody else. But he is most certainly not content nor satisfied. Perhaps a junky would be another example. A junky certainly experiences happiness when his poison enters his veins, yet he almost certainly is far from content or satisfied.

Re:This is a teenager by prmoustache on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @04:20PM (#40056673)
You are just being pedant while answering to a non native english speaker.
Re:This is a teenager by somenameforme on Wednesday April 17, 2024 @10:43AM (#40065363)
No, the words just have extremely different meanings. A child opens a Christmas present and starts rejoicing - nobody would claim 'Ah, look at him - he's so content!' One could even take this a step further to add that children, in general, cannot be content.

Contentedness is not happiness. And happiness is most certainly not contentedness. They're are just entirely different states of being.

Re:This is a teenager by IIsi50MHz on Wednesday April 17, 2024 @11:14AM (#40065863)
First, it's important to understand that words mean what people tend to use them to mean.

Second, "happy" and "happiness" subsume numerous meanings. You're picking one, and as I and others have, at times, done with many other words, trying to restrict the world to only that meaning.

Perhaps a more similar word to your meaning would be "joy"? It seems more generally restricted to descriptions of brief periods, in common usage.

Re:This is a teenager by somenameforme on Wednesday April 17, 2024 @12:57PM (#40067321)
If I were simply restricting the meaning, then the examples I am offering would mean you could use happy or e.g. contentedness interchangeably, or at least doing so wouldn't sound ridiculous. Yet I'm sure you're realizing by now that you cannot! For another example - a stern and disciplined person, who is rather dour of character, could be completely contented, but it would be illogical to call this person "happy", however you might want to define the term.

The words are simply not synonyms, or even particularly close to being synonyms.

Re:This is a teenager by worik on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @03:40PM (#40056287)
> when in the world did "happiness" become a desirable metric?

Happiness is not a metric, cannot be measured, and is one of the most important things

Despite it being unmeasurable we know that economic security increases it

Re:This is a teenager by nsxwolf on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @05:10PM (#40057265)
"Happiness", not "perpetual state of unbridled ecstasy"
Re:This is a teenager by styxfrix on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @02:40PM (#40055648)
Presenting dire conclusions without providing a shred of substance?
Re:This is a teenager by kulahan on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @06:42PM (#40058205)
How do you volunteer at the local school? My wife and I are both passionate about and interested in improving children’s lives, but not super sure how best to do it outside of donations and big brother big sister-type programs.

As an aside, maybe it’s because I’m inexperienced, but I’m finding it surprisingly hard to get connected with a group to help people that isn’t a highly specific cause like religion, LGBTQ, children of certain races, etc.??? Is it just me? I am clearly very ignorant about all this

Re:This is a teenager by anotheruser13 on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @11:50PM (#40060239)
I would like to volunteer as well, but it would have to be outside of home and school since I live in Texas. I would like to help young people learn to cope with being LGBTQ+, ADD, and other things, but I don't think parents would appreciate it.
Re:This is a teenager by valval on Wednesday April 17, 2024 @05:50AM (#40062397)
Yeah maybe you should reserve that stuff for your own kids. Which you probably don’t have.
Re:This is a teenager by fallingfrog on Thursday April 18, 2024 @06:43PM (#40081532)
Why? Helping kids develop study skills would help with adhd, helping kids deal with bullying would help with lgbtq issues. I can’t see how that would be harmful.
Re:This is a teenager by trogdor on Wednesday April 17, 2024 @09:32AM (#40064339)
>I’m finding it surprisingly hard to get connected with a group to help people that isn’t a highly specific cause like religion, LGBTQ, children of certain races, etc.

I recently started volunteering at my county’s animal shelter. The experience has been very rewarding.

Re:This is a teenager by subpixel on Wednesday April 17, 2024 @09:44AM (#40064481)
Where I live the superintendent and local groups formed a task-force style intervention and looped in local volunteers.

The scale of the problem is most visible through 'special ed' allocation. Once a program for kids with learning challenges, it now also encompasses what are essentially behavioral problems.

Kids don't get kicked out of school for throwing raging tantrums or hitting teachers - they get placed into programs designed to keep them in school. (If that's what life is like at school, imagine what life is like at home.)

Re:This is a teenager by seb1204 on Tuesday April 16, 2024 @07:57PM (#40058846)
Thank you for volunteering.