In espionage recruitment, they refer to ‘MICE’: Money, Ideology (East vs West, religion), Compromise (blackmail) and Ego.

Ego includes appealing to someone’s desires for sex, positions of power, or revenge - this case fits well end truly here.

I just listened to an episode of The Darknet Diaries with an ex-CIA (I think) agent and he was talking about MICE. I'm pretty sure he said the C was for Coercion, but that does include blackmail as you said.

I could see blackmail falling under ego also

The inclusion of "ego" seems like kind of a cop-out, like, "it could be one of these three things, or... uh... literally anything else".

I've always thought it was pretty accurate and not cop-out at all. At least they didn't try to squeeze in "id"

Seriously. If ego includes sex, it ought to include money as well.

Darknet Diaries is such a good podcast. Especially the Student and Saudi Aramco episodes

They missed 'Ethics'. And no, that's not ideology.

From their perspective, that distinction is meaningless.

From mine it isn't.

Ethics fits into ‘ideology’

>Snowden

Looking back at everything that transpired with Snowden boggles the mind. I still have no idea if he's an adversarial plant by some government (meant to sow distrust, etc) or if he was genuine from the get-go. It is incredibly hard to get to the truths of these things, and the media outlets spinning it in their own ways (based on who donates to them and who owns them) makes it even harder.

> I still have no idea if he's an adversarial plant by some government

He was an Aaron Swartz type who just wanted information to be free. It is clear Snowden wasn't a mole. He just hated closed-doors spying on innocent people, & having their privacy invaded at every instance. His legacy will not be forgotten[0]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowden_effect

Used to entertain ideas that he was an intelligence limited hangout, but...he's just too relentless & genuine to be doing a "good job" as one!

He really does try to inform the People.

> I still have no idea if he's an adversarial plant by some government

Was what he disclosed true or not? In the end, that's all that matters.

From what he reportedly took and what's been released, I'm still so confused.

It was a hot mess in the media for a few months about how the reporters he fed stuff to was going to release it all. Then, once the story died down, you didn't hear anything and there were no more releases. At least none that were so groundbreaking, they hit the media. You could say the media was culpable and simply ignored subsequent releases though.

Is there somewhere you can go to see what's been released? I'm still under the impression the bulk of what he said he had has yet to be released.

>Is there somewhere you can go to see what's been released? I'm still under the impression the bulk of what he said he had has yet to be released

Most of what he took he gave to reporters so it wouldn't be released, that's why he didn't release everything online.

The several organizations he gave information to continued to go through it for a couple of years, periodically releasing stories based on the disclosure. They all slowly stopped funding going through the documents, until only the Intercept was left.

They continued with a limited staff until 2019, and it's end is one of the reasons both Poitras and Greenwald have left the organization.

For what has been released, see

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_surveillance_disclosure...

And https://theintercept.com/collections/snowden-archive/

I don't know. If a ton of news came out about shady stuff happening at the Coca-Cola company, I'd want to know if it was all coming from corporate espionage paid for by Pepsi.

We assume an impartial news organization will investigate Coke and Pepsi equally, so if the org comes out with a bunch of stuff about Coke acting badly, we figure that Coke really is bad, otherwise the org would have gone after Pepsi too, or both. On the other hand if a less scrupulous news org one day receives a mysterious package with a ton of bad stuff about Coke and just verifies and prints it, then Pepsi could be good or bad or anything, but most people will think they're good because of all the bad stuff only coming out about Coke.

I don't follow that line of reasoning. The NSA massively invading the privacy of Americans, often without disclosure, has nothing to do with a Pepsi vs Coke scenario.

This isn't a competition between two corporations, this is about democracy and people's rights. What is this other side you would like to see presented more "impartially"?

PS: [a completely fictional scenario] if a leak disclosed that Coca-Cola was secretly implanting mind-controlling substances via their soft drinks, and that these substances made every consumer broadcast their most intimate thoughts to Coke marketing execs, you should publish this and damn Coke. Who cares about what Pepsi is doing? Their turn will come.

In an ideal world voters would rationally consider leaks, blame would be allocated appropriately, and the importance of the whole situation would be weighed against other concerns.

In the real world voters are at the mercy of cognitive and other biases, tend to blame the current government no matter what, and a leak's importance depends as much on media attention and trivialities like how close the leak is to an election as it depends on actual merit.

So, even true leaks can be effective tools to remove a government you don't like.

Suppose some government opposes the U.S. in some important way. That government then gets voted out at the next election due to a leak. Would you care if that leak came from a CIA mole? I would. I doubt the CIA would investigate and reveal foreign corruption or illegal overreach purely out of the goodness of its heart.

I seem to remember the Snowden leaks generated backlash against the NSA and the "deep state", and blame was not assigned along partisan lines. That is, it was believed this was a common thread that ran across all governments, somewhat but not entirely under their control.

People across the political spectrum got upset at the government. I remember being swept up at the time in the general nerd rage against the NSA. I particularly remember watching left-wing media about it from creators that were, around that time, partly sponsored by Russia's propaganda arm RT, though whether RT specifically sponsored pro-Snowden content from those creators I don't know.

However the actual political results were mostly favorable to Republicans. Trump himself popularized the term "deep state" and criticizing it was a key part of his administration's PR.

Russia benefited, not only by getting Republicans in power, but also by embarrassing and casting doubt on U.S. intelligence, a year before Russia's invasion of Crimea. Now in the current Ukraine war it's obvious how vital NATO intelligence is to resisting Russian aggression.

I don't think much actually changed at the NSA or any other agency. Trump didn't actually care about the ethics, he just thought it was some huge, personal injustice that he couldn't command everyone in the executive branch the way he could in his businesses. He didn't even pardon Snowden.

So overall the only changes were political and it all worked out great for Russia. Maybe Russia didn't plan it but they sure benefited from it, with the public and the media doing the heavy lifting. Something to keep in mind the next time some theoretically nonpartisan government scandal appears.

Yes, the military-industrial complex's gravy train benefits both parties.

> So, even true leaks can be effective tools to remove a government you don't like.

Yes, and it doesn't have to be that dramatic either. Even relatively small shifts in public opinion can matter when it comes to specific areas and/or legislation and/or funding.

Yes, there are big differences between an NSA leak versus the hypothetical soft drink company example. These differences are fair game to discuss.

But in the context of the thread, the common thread is clear. Negative information, even if true, can be chosen selectively to attack an enemy.

The context of this thread is democracy and the rights of Americans.

I'm not even sure what "selectively attack an enemy" means in this context. What Snowden disclosed was unequivocally bad, who cares what his motives were? We are not comparing soft drinks.

> What Snowden disclosed was unequivocally bad,

I interpret you as saying the act of disclosing this information was "unequivocally bad". Fair?

If so, no.

From the Apple dictionary, unequivocal means "leaving no doubt; unambiguous".

Please don't take this comment as "for" or "against" Snowden. Rather, please interpret this comment as "for" critical thinking and clear writing.

Students of philosophy and ethics, as well as many thoughtful people, know that weighing right and wrong is hardly simple. There are many schools of thought. Whatever one's views might be, it is clear that different people have different views of the ethics of Snowden's leaks.

For example, a utilitarian style philosophy could easily argue that Snowden's leaks resulted in more benefit than harm.

I particularly like that you're quoting the Apple dictionary. That detail was extremely important to me.

> I particularly like that you're quoting the Apple dictionary. That detail was extremely important to me.

Your comment is sarcastic and unhelpful to any meaningful conversation.

> The context of this thread is democracy and the rights of Americans.

That is part of the context. It might be one person's entire notion of the context. However, different people, all reasonable, may have different contexts.

Not realizing or recognizing this can contribute to thinking someone else is "off topic". But on what basis can one person claim that someone else is not on topic?

In these comments, myself (and others too) include information (and disinformation) tactics as part of the context here too.

Wow, you seem to be making lots of replies.

I remember the trend on HN back when the Snowden leaks occurred. It wasn't palatable back then to express your views -- shooting the messenger, casting doubts on his motivations -- and most people were rightly appalled by the spying going on on Americans.

Thinking differently is a dangerous trend against whistleblowers. Whistleblowers are a good thing.

Unequivocally good. Yes, I used that word you dislike.

> -- shooting the messenger, casting doubts on his motivations -- and most people were rightly appalled by the spying going on on Americans.

Yes, shooting the messenger and casting doubts on his motivations were (and are) tactics used when a message reflects poorly on someone or some thing.

For what it is worth, in my comments around here, I'm not using these tactics as a way to deflect criticism away from institutions that Snowden criticizes. There was a huge breach of public trust in the NSA.

At the same time, it is interesting and important to understand Snowden's motivations.

> Wow, you seem to be making lots of replies.

Do you intend this as an insult directed at me?

Yes, I separate out different comments intentionally, because I think they warrant separate points.

> Unequivocally good. Yes, I used that word you dislike.

Your comments are mean-spirited. This is what you intended, right? To attack me?

> I'm not even sure what "selectively attack an enemy" means in this context.

It sounds like you are having cognitive dissonance. It seems to me that you have fixated on your definition of the context. In so doing, other perspectives aren't making sense to you. Having more flexibility might help you understand.

> What Snowden disclosed was unequivocally bad, who cares what his motives were?

I can see it doesn't matter to you about Snowden's motives.

However, many informed and reasonable people care about his motives. Perhaps this can be a motivation to think more and dig deeper.

You can say only true things but still mislead by selectively releasing information. That's why it is essential to try and understand the motivations behind the leaked information.

Yes. On the other hand, the NSA illegally spying on Americans is bad. You don't need to know the motivations, it's just bad. You cannot build a robust democracy on top of such a shaky foundation.

They can claim "Snowden was a KGB mole!" but if they hadn't been doing such nasty things, there wouldn't have been something so damaging for the mole (or a disgruntled ex employee, whatever) to disclose. There will always be dirty laundry to disclose of course -- nobody is 100% clean -- but this was major.

This is classic "shooting the messenger".

I can't get past the question about the conditions under which the disclosures became deemed necessary. Everything else definitely never ought to be clear or you have a problem with arbitrary decision making agency out of hand.

I honestly don't understand your reply, could you reword it please? Thanks.

>> I can't get past the question about the conditions under which the disclosures became deemed necessary. Everything else definitely never ought to be clear or you have a problem with arbitrary decision making agency out of hand.

> I honestly don't understand your reply, could you reword it please? Thanks.

I also find it confusing.

Here's my understanding: the commenter is asking something akin to this question: Why did Snowden's deem his disclosures to be necessary? Based on my understanding of Snowden, he deemed his disclosures necessary because he views these NSA programs as unjust and/or undemocratic and would continue (and probably get worse) if not revealed.

>> Everything else definitely never ought to be clear or you have a problem with arbitrary decision making agency out of hand.

I'm unclear on what this sentence as a whole means. First, I wonder if "never ought" was a typo and the commenter meant just "ought". Second, I'd guess that "arbitrary decision making agency out of hand" probably was meant to be "arbitrary agency decision making out of hand", suggesting that the NSA was overstepping its bounds.

> Was what he disclosed true or not? In the end, that's all that matters.

Incorrect. One person -- or one group -- or one ideology -- doesn't get to decide all that matters for everyone.

Your reply is worded so generally and vaguely I don't even understand what you mean.

Who "gets" to "decide" what in your reply? Please be specific.

>>> Was what [Snowden] disclosed true or not? In the end, that's all that matters.

>> Incorrect. One person -- or one group -- or one ideology -- doesn't get to decide all that matters for everyone.

> Your reply is worded so generally and vaguely I don't even understand what you mean.

I know the feeling. I've struggled to understand what you write as well.

Yes, I was making a general point. When you wrote "In the end, that's all that matters." you are claiming that the truth (or lack thereof) of what Snowden said is all that matters. This is an overly simplistic and narrow view. Such a view disregards the rest of the situation, including ethics, impacts over different time scales, disinformation, and geopolitics.

I have found all the “shoot the messenger” of leaks to be so backwards it seems like an orchestrated defense.

It is, and it's how media manufactures consent for punishing/outing whistleblowers who should be protected from any type of harassment.

We saw something similar recently with the leak of the SCOTUS Roe v Wade opinion. There was a huge push to move the discussion from how controversial the opinion was & what the fallout would be towards "leaks are bad & we have to find who did this".

>It is, and it's how media manufactures consent for punishing/outing whistleblowers who should be protected from any type of harassment.

Agreed; but…

In your example, it’s both. In that case, it’s a completely legal and expected part of the process for the justices to decide things, even if it’s things you don’t like.

In the case of Snowden or Manning or others, they were leaking something that the government says it does not do, should not do, and expressly illegal things.

So it’s not a great example. While we likely agree on abortion; Roe has always been on “shakey legal ground” (RBG’s words) and the 7 justices that decided it could not agree if it was because of the 9th or 14th amendments, and offered no explanation how one or both of these superseded the 10th in this scenario. If you haven’t, read the full opinion, do, it gives insight into what is going on… legally anyhow.

So as to your example, it wasn’t a whistleblower or shooting the messenger to find the scotus leaker - it’s literally protecting the sanctity of that institution’s process.

If you can’t imagine a scenario you would be upset a decision you agreed with was leaked in order to bully justices or influence a coming election, you aren’t thinking hard enough.

I wonder if the Ukraine war has affected Snowden with all the sanctions? An America, exiled in Russia who has a job and works. Is he paid in Rubles? Is life immensely more difficult for him now than it was 6 months ago? Curious.

From what I understand, and I'm not sure if it's propaganda or not, but the ruble dropped and then bounced back. The only Russians affected by the embargoes are the expats. They have to exchange rubles for dollars but can't. Even NATO members are still buying Russian oil and gas. Cutting it off completely would destabilize their own economies.

>> but the ruble dropped and then bounced back.

You are correct.

Understandably, the Russian authorities blamed the West for the drop in the ruble exchange rate, and depreciation for inflation. At the same time, they reacted by enforcing capital controls, restricting convertibility, offering more rubles to support bank liquidity and raising interest rates on ruble deposits.

Shortly afterward, they also announced that in the future Moscow would honor its euro- and dollar- denominated debts, but would ask “hostile countries” to pay for their energy imports in rubles. Some dubbed this policy the “ruble clause.”

The authorities can now boast that the ruble has stabilized. By the beginning of April, one euro bought 85 rubles, marking a slightly stronger exchange rate than before the war began. Western operators are perhaps not overly interested in Russian monetary policy. But what about the ruble clause? Is it little more than a flash in the pan with little practical relevance, or should we take it more seriously?

https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/ruble-clause/

Ruble "bounced back", because it's no longer exchangeable, its exchange rate is fictional now. Russians can't withdraw more than $10k per year, and 80% of any USD income must be deposited within a week or so.

> but the ruble dropped and then bounced back.

It doesn't mean much. If I remember it right, back in USSR time, the ruble rate was about 1.6 for a dollar. Yet people couldn't buy toilet paper whenever they needed it. There was a severe deficit of pretty much everything. It's not going to be like in the 90s - the economy is very different, but sugar shortages just three-four weeks into the war is not a good sign. It will get tough for Russians, which is not beneficial to anyone - not for them, nor for Europeans, Americans, or Chinese.

Sugar isn't a good indicator of much. Russia basically got their sugar from the country they just invaded. And Ukraine is just in a shitty strategic location. No one really cared about them until it became blindingly obvious they have a strategic location important to Russia. The sugar problem will resolve itself in a few months. The oil-based energy problem (where Russia holds the advantage) is going to take years to untangle.

I agree, sugar perhaps is not a good indicator. There wasn't an actual shortage of sugar, it was a short-lived market panic. But, still, many other sectors of the Russian economy are already suffering - automakers, air travel & cargo are good examples. Some big tech companies like Cisco have entirely left the market, which is neither good for Russians nor Cisco. They already come $200M short in their quarterly. The layoffs didn't follow only because Cisco already slashed thousands of jobs last year due to the pandemic.

Yes, there will be a lot of money in hard currency from oil and gas, but without access to high-tech & parts (which not many countries would sell to Russia), it's gonna pull the entire country into stagnation.

whoosh!

It was actually 1.6 dollars for 1 soviet ruble. But it was impossible to freely buy dollars at that rate.

Aye, I got it backwards. My bad.

Update... no wait, dollar was about 60 kopeeks, so for 1 dollar you'd get 1.6 soviet roubles, I was right, no?

From what I understand, and this definitely isn't propaganda the reality is that people are much happier to have 'hard' currency than rubles and a lot of hard currency is coming into Russia in physical form via for instance Turkey but also other countries.

I read an article just today - sorry, forgot which one, and too many in my history to find - reporting about foreigners still in Russia, who refuse to leave.

They say there is a lot less variety in stores, but life is really quite normal. Except, everybody really makes sure what to say (and what not), especially to strangers. They report difficulties - or impossibilities - with money transfers.

I have a friend with decades of business ties to Russia, he and his (Russian) wife live in Germany but he has a residency-type visa (whatever it's called) for Russia and even after the war flew there several times, via Turkey. There still are quite a few businesses present, smaller ones I think. I fully support Ukraine, but personally I'm content with those kinds of contacts remaining.

They - several interviewed people independently - reported that they did not experience any problems from normal Russian people or from the authorities but where treated normally.

I think if Snowden just removes himself from public view and does not talk about politics and the... special operation, he'll be just fine, as will all the other foreigners.

EDIT: Found it: "Westerners Who Stayed in Russia Find Home Transformed By War" (published yesterday) https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/05/westerners-who-sta...

Note that "Moscow Times" is not aligned with the Russian government, and is registered in Russia as "foreign agent"- Please don't let the name deceive you. As you can see from their articles, they freely report on the war and the impact of the sanctions and other stuff. There Russian language website has even more detailed articles about Russian internal things, quite unfiltered (Google Chrome can auto-translate, if necessary).

> None of the Westerners in Russia interviewed by The Moscow Times said they had feared for their physical safety since the start of the war. Nor did they report any instances of hostility from authorities or ordinary Russians.

> But the military campaign has undoubtedly cast a cloud over their relationships with others, making them more cautious when voicing opinions.

Given that there is massive interest in getting people to believe that he is an adversarial plant, I would adjust your biases in the opposite direction to offset.

I have seen no credible evidence that he didn't do this for ideological reasons.

If Snowden has an ideology it is 'to do what's right by his personal ethics', I don't see any East vs West or other usual suspects like claim to a pre-packaged position, from what I've read about him and from him he genuinely wanted to make a stand for a public that does not care about their privacy being destroyed.

Too bad, really, he took one for the team and we failed to support him.

I don't know when ideology became a dirty word but I was not using it in that sense.

If he were an adversarial plant by some government who intentionally sowed distrust by revealing factual things, would you lean more towards upset or thankful towards that third party government?

> It is incredibly hard to get to the truths of these things,

What are you a sock puppet? Everyone knows about deniable ops in the Special Forces world, assassinations are not something new, what makes you think Edward Snowden isnt telling the truth?

Personally I dont think he's exposed that much, but then he may not have been in the thick end of it.

Just read some of the stuff published by ex-military, and if you were a kid growing up around those sort of people, you probably got to hear about it.

The vast majority of the population, less than 1% are like Mother Theresa, which means _everyone_ _has_ _secrets_ and today, science can extract those secrets against your will without you even knowing.

AI detecting subconscious bias in judges https://www.theverge.com/2019/1/17/18186674/daniel-chen-mach... is just the tip of the iceberg.

> the media outlets spinning it in their own ways (based on who donates to them and who owns them) makes it even harder

Even journalists & news organisations including state broadcasters dont realise, they are giving away secrets at the subconscious level. There will come a point when they want to shut up shop because of what they are implicated in.

AI is an arm's race that has no boundaries, and the winner takes it all!

>> It is incredibly hard to get to the truths of these things,

> What are you a sock puppet?

In case you haven't seen the HN guidelines:

> Please don't post insinuations about astroturfing, shilling, bots, brigading, foreign agents and the like. It degrades discussion and is usually mistaken. If you're worried about abuse, email [email protected] and we'll look at the data.

In addition to that, saying "It is incredibly hard to get to the truths of these things" is hardly a convincing argument that an account is a sock puppet, which I'm defining as "A pseudonymous online identity adopted to further the user's real-life interests or to agree with sentiments the user has already expressed online." (per Wordnik)

Manning was ideological? I was under the impression that she was simply immensely unhappy and dissatisfied with her experience in the military as a whole and so released a huge amount of info without going through it.

While I know much of what inspired her was the depression she was going through, I thought her knowledge of the illegal acts she knew were carried out also inspired her action. It's been a while since I've read her story though, so I could be misremembering.

Most of what Manning released wasn't exposing crimes. Diplomatic insults via private internal communication aren't particularly actionable.

No, and they weren't intended to be dumped in public. The Guardian journalists published the key for the file containing them, changing it from a leak that a team of journalists were going through to choose what to publish to one everyone had full access to. Manning can't be blamed for that.

Plus, far more of Manning's leaks were about the wars than the diplomatic cables.

Vindictiveness based on non judicial punishment and a failing career.

I wouldn’t be surprised if they each had their ‘petty’ reasons as well. You have to lose faith in the people around you and the system at large before you feel you can go rogue. I personally burned a pretty significant relationship and my career in the process when the Trump military trans ban came through. I had by that point been hit with many petty injustices and indignities, but it was ban that finally brought me over the edge.

What do you mean?

Not obvious that Snowden or Manning are truly ideological.

What else would Snowden's motivation be?

Ethics. Which is not necessarily and ideology.