I think GPU scaling will be much harder than CPU, so whereas Apple can surpass Intel CPUs for all but the highest segments, putting together a standalone GPU will be hard and very interesting to see. For an entry-level GPU? No issues. But what about a midrange (AMD RX 5700XT or Nvidia 2070S)? And not to mention the top-tier Nvidia 2080ti.
The other unspoken risk is that while Apple may be vertically integrating its SOC, it still relies on a fab like TSMC. Intel's recent problem is rooted in their inability to move off legacy 14nm fabrication process. TSMC may have done great in 7nm and now to 5nm transition, but what happens if/when they stumble? Would Apple also want to acquire them or build its own fabs to mitigate this risk?
Surely this is an advantage to being fabless? If TSMC stumble, they can evaluate other options. Same for AMD, where would they be now if they were still tied to GlobalFoundries?
That said, what are the other options if not TSMC? Besides Intel, Samsung is only other cutting-edge option. Intel's 7nm would be technically on par with TSMC's 5nm (marketing names aside). https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/7_nm_lithography_process
There is a chance, however unlikely, that TSMC's 3nm push will run into issues and be delayed. Would create an interesting scenario where Apple would pay Intel to fab their SOCs.
Why would Intel agree to that? Have they ever fabbed any other companies design?
There were rumours going around about its demise a few years ago, but a fair bit of that was simply their failure to ship 10nm parts on schedule AFAIK. They're still doing some degree of third-party manufacturing, and I don't doubt once they reach a point of having the capacity for their first-party products on 10nm we might seem them expand.
However, the inevitable flip-side of this is unlike TSMC/SS where Apple can bid the highest for the early production of a new node, Intel are highly likely to keep the new node for themselves to start with.
We only have mobile SOCs as a reference point so far, but Apple is doing very well on that metric.
>On the GPU side of things, Apple has also been hitting it out of the park; the last two GPU generations have brought tremendous efficiency upgrades which also allow for larger performance gains. I really had not expected Apple to make as large strides with the A13’s GPU this year, and the efficiency improvements really surprised me. The differences to Qualcomm’s Adreno architecture are now so big that even the newest Snapdragon 865 peak performance isn’t able to match Apple’s sustained performance figures. It’s no longer that Apple just leads in CPU, they are now also massively leading in GPU.
https://www.anandtech.com/show/15246/anandtech-year-in-revie...
But landing troops (they can't march, it's an island, and the difference between amphibious and land based operations matters a lot) would be extremely difficult, and not obviously in the PLA's favor. See, for example:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-wi...
Besides that significant causalities and economic damage to both sides, which of course they'd eventually win, but it'd be a geopolitical disaster that won't end with the quelling of the armed forces.
China has far more to gain not going this route.
Although it would assuredly take some time to ramp up, TSMC should be able to spawn fabs outside of Taiwan, out of CCP reach. They are already building one in the US, albeit with a small output.
"Apple claims the GPU in the iPad Pro is equivalent to an Xbox One S, although how they came to thise conclusion is difficult to say since we know so little about the underpinnings of the GPU." [1]
[1] https://www.anandtech.com/show/13661/the-2018-apple-ipad-pro...
Apple sales for Mac are much smaller numbers compared to consoles, they change generations more quickly and amount of optimization in GPU-intensive apps is nowhere close to consoles.
So they might be able to compete with Intel iGPU, but that's nowhere close to AMD or Nvidia offerings.
Apple might have huge leverage on mobile with iPhone because Android graphics drivers are horrible mess, but on Windows GPU drivers are decent and building custom driver stack sounds like too much.
Apple's custom GPUs they use in their SoCs are arguably more effort on their part.
And PC graphics APIs abstract way less of the system than they once did
I'd be curious if Apple's non-mobile SOC roadmap emphasizes on CPU development while still allowing for eGPU setups or even some built-in integration (e.g. Mac Pro with Apple CPU and AMD GPU) initially. Maybe in 5-10 years they'll shift to focusing on the GPU front and bring out their own dedicated GPU.
https://www.techpowerup.com/gpu-specs/?architecture=GCN+1.0&...
That being said, frankly I'm amazed at what most modern mobile GPUs are capable of and for most people who are casual gamers, that level of performance will be more than enough. What Apple will bring to the table will certainly be better than that, it's already better than Intel GPUs and they can still support 3rd party GPUs if necessary.
The demo they showed of Shadow of the Tomb Raider running at 1080p looked great for a game, AND it also looked awful if you compared it to the PC version on Ultra settings.
The whole presentation struck me as a big middle finger to Intel and just Intel.
I was actually a bit surprised they would break that kind of a demo out at WWDC -- I've seen that game not running in emulation and it was beautiful. That demo wasn't.
Looking at it without context however, it demonstrated the capability of the platform to run a AAA game without developer optimization/consideration.
And it demonstrates someone could make a stylized game similar to Fortnite.
And that was released in 2018. By the time Apple put out desktop class silcon in end of 2020, surely it will be significantly scaled up?
Building your own fab would be a gargantuan task.
A future JV with Intel seems more likely (despite it being very unlikely in absolute terms).
Some examples here https://linustechtips.com/main/topic/917482-arm-and-pcie-lan...
Did it do any CPU-intensive stuff (skinning, deformation), or was it just GPU-intensive viewing?
High-end VFX will be interesting for this with Apple (Maya, Houdini, Nuke) - already there was quite a lot of anger at OpenGL being deprecated and Vulcan not being officially supported. Another instruction set into the mix for highly-optimised apps (lots of SIMD code) is going to be quite annoying, especially for the CPU renderers (Arnold, Renderman, etc)...
That seems a bit weird considering OpenGL has been deprecated in macOS already. I would have expected a full removal once the first ARM Macs ship.
Logic isn't worth much without plugins, and I expect many smaller developers not to port to ARM, and there's nobody to fill the gap in the first years. If that is indeed the case, Apple will begin losing market share where it currently reigns. When there's no pro software, the mac will be just an iPad with a keyboard. It's quite a gamble.
But I've been too pessimistic before.
Rosetta 2 cross-compiles Intel binaries to ARM. Why would VST/AU plug-in binaries be an exception?
Last time Rosetta was on a process by process basis, so you might have to make some unfortunate choices.
Edit: https://developer.apple.com/documentation/apple_silicon/abou...
> The system prevents you from mixing arm64 code and x86_64 code in the same process. Rosetta translation applies to an entire process, including all code modules that the process loads dynamically.
Also transpile is a source to source compilation and isn't the right term here.
A lot of people do say that, including a lot of professionals, but in my opinion Logic with its stock plugins is already absolutely great. Some people buy a lot of plugins because they don't know how to use the builtin plugins, and some because they enjoy playing with new stuff more than making music (and yes, some who know what they're doing too).
I don't think they can afford not to - mac users make up a signifcant share of their target audience.
Furthermore there's always the emulation option although it remains to be seen how performant that would be in an such a demanding, time-critical application like AU/VST instrument and effects.
Maybe in your segment but I can't think of using Windows as a web developer even without any of the "Pro" app from Apple.
Not much. If you bought that machine you didn't care about it much as you bought older hardware at a premium price-point. You bought it to use it right now without fussing and have accepted it's obsolescence in 2-4 years, as is quite normal for studios.
If you bought it as an IT enthousiast, well..why would you even do that?
I don't see Apple coming out with an ARM Mac Pro within 3 years anyway. Why would they do that? No upside for them, that market has to be won back first. Slowly start with laptops and iMac, focusing on consumers, get the OS in shape and third-party vendors accustomed to the platform first.
iPad-like performance is already fast enough for almost all consumers, and I'm sure Apple doesn't want to break with Intel on everything right away.
Also crucially, due to Apple's spat with NVIDIA, the Mac Pro doesn't support CUDA. This means software has to be modified to use Metal Compute to support the Mac Pro.
If you make pro software Apple just let off a huge signal that the future of the Mac Pro is at best uncertain. So maybe hold off on that Mac support for the next two years.
Apple is not going to make an ARM Xeon. The resulting computer would be so expensive after you amortise all the R&D to create a single workstation class CPU for it, that nobody would be able to afford it. All the Pros who bought Mac Pro got played hard.
Anything that isn't a Hollywood studio will have to use an ARM iMac.
Enthousiasts and semi-pro's that want a powerful, affordable and extensible Mac with state of the art discrete GPU's can probably get lost, as is the case right now.
Then again, Apple is now only bound by their own operations, so who knows what they have planned.
Now, it turns out that Apple wants to complete a transition in 2 years... they are not keeping x86 around for the Mac Pro longer than that. It's not credible that Apple can just scale up their CPU into a workstation part. So if you are making pro software then you have to come to the inescapable conclusion that Apple is, in fact, not serious about the Pro market, and it's probably best to avoid expending further development resources on the Mac.
[0] https://www.amd.com/system/files/49010-gddr5-hbm-1260x709.pn...
I think it's a more common problem to see things like the T2 security chip not being present on older hardware or hackintosh(unsupported) hardware, so if you're not running the right hardware you can't take advantage of a feature (AR in certain iPhones) or you won't have the performance advantage (Filevault encryption with T2 chips vs encrypted by CPU).
2. They're saying integrated. Whether they also throw Radeons on high-end desktops is probably not yet determined. (They have a two year roadmap for this rollout, and I think it's pretty obvious they'll start with the portables/iMacs where the benefits of ARM are more likely to outweigh the pain of change for more people.)
Will they have a wide TDP range of designs? Yes. On feasibility, there are two major components to the cost - first is the engineering cost for design. You can bet that these costs are not massive; Apple has roughly $200 billion cash on hand right now. Most of the work will be scaled up as part of their overall design process.
The second cost component is the Non-recurring engineering to get a mask-set made for the chips. A 7nm start right now costs maybe in the range of $20mm? If the Mac Pro is required to stand on its own feet financially, perhaps that will push out timing / push up cost. On the other hand, if one considers the cost of the top end chip to be a marketing cost, it’s literally a rounding error.
GPU - Apple is going to have their own GPUs, and no longer worry about AMD and Nvidia. They’ll have complete control of the hardware and software stack and control their own destiny. I would be very surprised to see dual GPU options.
Keep in mind that this doesn't imply a different chip design. TDP is primarily a function of intended application and cooling capacity, not chip tech.
That said, they've already demonstrated ability to do this with A12/A12X/A12Z, which are the same chip at different CPU/GPU core counts. Clock rates are not impacted except where thermal limitations (TDP) impose a limit.
If Apple took funds from a foreign subsidiary to pay shareholder dividends it would have to pay
1) Federal Corporate income tax of 20%. 2) CA state corporate income tax of 9%.
Then out of the 73% left over, the shareholder would pay state income tax + federal dividend tax. That means the shareholder ends up keeping between 50-60% of the funds Apple paid.
If Apple borrows the funds instead, it owes no federal or state corporate tax. The shareholder just needs to pay state income tax and federal dividend taxes, so after tax they end up with 70-85% of the funds Apple paid.
This isn't just going to replace low-end machines; its every machine they sell, within two years. Probably starting with low-end, but moving up.
https://twitter.com/domipheus/status/1167566293861588992
It's definitely possible, just need to expost the PCIe lanes in a sensible way (this has been rare to see on ARM-based machines so far) and have PCIe device manufacturers distribute drivers for ARM macOS.
That conclusion seems a bit too far fetched from my point of view. There are many users that use Logic on a MBP and with Photoshop it's even more common to use it on a Laptop.
Sooner or later a ARM MacPro is comming but if i'd had to guess i'd say that will take a while. There were 6 years between trashcan and the current cheese grater. So maybe 2025 then ;)
Nintendo Switch uses a nvidia gpu with a very slow and outdated arm processor. Yet, this allows it to run Rocket League, Witcher 3 etc.
Apple, might go with discrete GPU from nvidia/amd to pair it with their arm processors.
https://www.datacenterknowledge.com/apple/apple-spend-10b-us...
That reads to me Apple isn't going to have Intel for some high end Pro machine. They intended to go all in with ARM. i.e There will be a Mac Pro with High TDP ARM Chip. I wonder what are the owner of Mac Pro feeling now having just spend a $5K+ Mac Pro with Intel.
Question is,
1. They are going to design their own CPU for the whole range of Mac? up to 10W for MacBook, up to 45W for MacBook Pro. ~150W for iMac, ~ 250W for Mac Pro ? How is that financially feasible considering the volume of Mac Pro sold. Or do they intend to use those high TDP chip in their server farm / iCloud?
2. What happens to GPU? Having their own GPU for iMac and Mac Pro as well? Dual GPU options where Apple GPU for power efficiency? This feels like additional complexity.
3. Would it be like the PowerPC era where you will get a new iMac once you finish with the development kit?
Finally while I am excited for ARM Mac, at the same time I am also feeling a little sad. Good bye x86.