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Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by drtgh on Saturday January 03, 2026 @09:30AM (#46477074)
Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez is in charge, so nothing is gonna change for Venezuelan citizens.

Oil industry in Venezuela is Chinese, or for China, this is not gonna change either.

What we are seeing here is a show, or may be also more related to Venezuela being a narco-state.

Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by r721 on Saturday January 03, 2026 @10:46AM (#46477957)
>Venezuela vice president Rodriguez in Russia, four sources say

>Her brother, Jorge Rodriguez, the head of the national assembly, is in Caracas, three sources with knowledge of his whereabouts said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-vice-presid...

Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by r721 on Saturday January 03, 2026 @02:00PM (#46480239)
^ Disputed by NYT:

>While reports circulated that Ms. Rodríguez was in Russia at the time of the attacks, Ms. Rodríguez is in Caracas, according to three people close to her. Russian state media also denied reports that she was in Moscow.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/world/americas/maduro-ven...

Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by 0xB31B1B on Saturday January 03, 2026 @10:16AM (#46477611)
not quite

The oil production there is completely decimated. They have huge reserves but production is low and falling because the regime doesn't do any maintenance or support of anything in the oil production and supply chain. It is very much the meme of "living in the ruins of a once great society".

Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by goatlover on Saturday January 03, 2026 @11:28AM (#46478475)
Sanctions had nothing to do with this?
Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by selectodude on Saturday January 03, 2026 @12:17PM (#46479098)
Not really. VZ oil production peaked in 2012, long before the sanctions.
Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by isr on Saturday January 03, 2026 @01:06PM (#46479640)
Completely dishonest answer. Sanctions decimated Venezuela's ability to maintain its oil infrastructure. Everything, from machined parts, to the various chemicals needed, everything, was affected.

It just took a few years for the sanctions to bite, as the Venezuelans conserved & used stockpiles.

Again, a completely dishonest take. Speaks volumes, when most defenders of todays criminality keep spouting arguments to this effect.

Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by selectodude on Saturday January 03, 2026 @02:29PM (#46480544)
Venezuelan oil production was cratering years before the first oil sanctions because they replaced everybody who knew how to drill oil with loyalists. I didn’t realize this was debatable.
Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by brohee on Saturday January 03, 2026 @05:35PM (#46482440)
Replacing all competent but ideologically unreliable people by reliable but incompetent people got more to it. See "Politicization" in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PDVSA?wprov=sfla1
Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by ErneX on Saturday January 03, 2026 @10:38AM (#46477860)
I think the next in line is her brother, who is the president of the National Assembly (Congress).
Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by mapontosevenths on Saturday January 03, 2026 @10:52AM (#46478023)
You may be wrong about the oil industry, Trumps already saying it in between the lies/pretense about drugs.

"Trump says that the US is going to be "strongly involved" in Venezuela's oil industry moving forward." [0]

[0] https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c5yqygxe41pt

Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by card_zero on Saturday January 03, 2026 @11:53AM (#46478819)
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c5yqygxe41pt?post=asset%3Aea9f...

(Permalink, since it's on the second page of the live thread now.)

This live format is kind of irritating. Here's another one:

> He claims the oil business in Venezuela has been a "bust", and that large US companies are going to go into the country to fix the infrastructure and "start making money for the country"

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c5yqygxe41pt?post=asset%3A27af...

Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by drtgh on Saturday January 03, 2026 @04:45PM (#46481960)
Certainly I may be wrong. By the moment I just find it hard to believe that Taiwan has been traded for Venezuelan oil.

I mention Taiwan because I think it is the only currency that could make the Chinese government give up those barrels of oil without retaliating.

Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by jacquesm on Saturday January 03, 2026 @06:25PM (#46482885)
We'll know soon enough then.
Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by terminalshort on Saturday January 03, 2026 @07:25PM (#46483385)
China isn't giving up any barrels of oil. It's a global market. If Venezuela is selling 5 million bbl per day to China, and it stops selling to China, someone else will start buying it. Since they are now buying 5 million bbl per day from Venezuela, that means they are buying 5 million bbl / day from their existing suppliers. China will buy that oil.
Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by drtgh on Saturday January 03, 2026 @11:20PM (#46484867)
You should not expect the Chinese government to disregard their fourth biggest oil provider, ignore the refineries' investments in processing that oil, and send them looking for another supplier without them retaliating.
Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by Loudergood on Saturday January 03, 2026 @11:13PM (#46484818)
On the one hand, I agree. On the other hand, I don't think this administration would have bothered to talk to China at all. I don't think they need to.
Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by mapontosevenths on Sunday January 04, 2026 @10:12AM (#46488701)
You made the mistake of believing that Trump is more than a zero step thinker. Many do.

The fact is, his tactics and plans end where his nose does.

Many of his advisors are capable of planning, but there are times he just doesnt listen to them and lets whatever heavy metals are in the spray tan do all the thinking. See January Sixth for one example that got people killed. See USAID for another.

Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by jopsen on Sunday January 04, 2026 @05:03PM (#46492756)
So much evidence to suggest this.

No reason to think there will be follow up investments or even follow up thoughts.

Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by pstuart on Saturday January 03, 2026 @12:05PM (#46478956)
Venezuela is rich in mineral resources as well. Whatever it is the Trump admin is after, it's not democracy, it's some form of self-enrichment.
Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by actionfromafar on Saturday January 03, 2026 @10:05PM (#46484403)
Just a small reminder that we aren't talking about Epstein much today.
Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by XorNot on Sunday January 04, 2026 @02:21AM (#46485753)
Although that doesn't seem like much of a solution though: the press will be bored of this by the end of the week and the only news that can come out is bad news.
Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by smcl on Saturday January 03, 2026 @10:51AM (#46478015)
> Venezuela being a narco-state.

That is an insane take

Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by ethbr1 on Saturday January 03, 2026 @11:59AM (#46478882)
Is it?

I'm skeptical, as it seems to have that ring of circa-2003 WMD justification about it, but I won't dismiss it out of hat.

And if the US intends to prosecute Maduro on drug crimes in SDNYC (good!), then they'll have to present evidence to the court, which presumably means they think they have a case.

Personally, I doubt Maduro intentionally ran a narco-state as a primary focus. But I can very much see a sizable narcotics enterprise, with state support, being used as a key way for him to enrich select supporters absent a viable economy. Money to pay the generals has to come from somewhere...

Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by jacquesm on Saturday January 03, 2026 @12:11PM (#46479033)
You can't credibly pardon one massive drug dealer and then go and kidnap the head of state of another country based on the same kind of thing. The lack of consistency alone should cause some serious headscratching.
Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by ethbr1 on Saturday January 03, 2026 @12:17PM (#46479101)
Headscratching is not an international consequence.

"Right" rarely matters in geopolitics.

What matters is who opposes a course of action, and how far they're willing to go in their opposition.

Is China or the UK going to insist that former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández be prosecuted on drug crimes? If not, then the US is realpolitik free to do what it wants.

Similarly with Maduro. Who's going to support him? And how far are they prepared to go?

Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by saint_fiasco on Saturday January 03, 2026 @12:40PM (#46479367)
Maduro was offered some sort of limited amnesty and safe conduit before.

Pardoning a different drug dealer can be a way to show Maduro that they were serious about the offer, that they really would have gone easy on him.

Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by frankzinger on Sunday January 04, 2026 @07:36AM (#46487366)
It's possible to imagine all kinds of fantastical explanations but usually the simplest one is the correct one: Trump is receiving bags of money for the pardon. Also bolstered by his past (and ongoing) behaviour of openly and shamelessly enriching himself at every opportunity.
Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by JumpinJack_Cash on Sunday January 04, 2026 @10:56AM (#46489130)
> > Pardoning a different drug dealer can be a way to show Maduro that they were serious about the offer, that they really would have gone easy on him.

Maduro is not a drug dealer and even if it was not directing all the limited resources of its government to stop the drug trade we are talking about allocation of resources which should have happened in order to put Americans Interests first whereas Venezuela has so many other serious problems.

Also even if all that was true we are talking about cocaine, the party (and somewhat productivity) drug.

The fentanyl is produced 10,000 miles away from Venezuela, in CHYNA which used to be a great talking point in 2016 but of course nothing ended up happening

Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by FergusArgyll on Saturday January 03, 2026 @01:06PM (#46479631)
You could do whatever is good for your country. Credibly.

Getting rid of a head of state that brings your primary competitors (china) influence to your doorstep is not head scratching. Just try to think in real-world terms

Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by JKCalhoun on Saturday January 03, 2026 @01:02PM (#46479585)
Stay skeptical.
Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by ethbr1 on Saturday January 03, 2026 @01:07PM (#46479646)
Always.
Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by smcl on Sunday January 04, 2026 @03:52PM (#46492059)
You can very much see whatever you like if you're a credible dope
Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by pqtyw on Saturday January 03, 2026 @09:33AM (#46477126)
> Vice President Delcy Rodriguez is in charge

Today. She's still part of the same regime and party. It's not obvious Trump will let her stay in charge. Also the control the government had over the criminal gangs/syndicates/cartels was seemingly very weak anyway. Even if the current decapitated regime is allowed to stay it won't be very strong.

Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by CSMastermind on Saturday January 03, 2026 @10:08AM (#46477522)
The US has long recognized Edmundo González as the rightful president of the country following the 2024 election. I imagine they will try to install him.

Alternatively there's María Corina Machado who overwhelmingly won the presidential primary for that election but wasn't allowed to run.

Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by ch4s3 on Saturday January 03, 2026 @10:42AM (#46477912)
It’s not just the US that recognizes González, the evidence was pretty clear that he won in a landslide.
Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by aeyes on Saturday January 03, 2026 @09:50PM (#46484316)
But this is not the result of a free election, more promising candidates like Machado were not able to run: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-...

So you can't just install this person as president now.

Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by ch4s3 on Saturday January 03, 2026 @10:05PM (#46484410)
González ran in Machado's place.
Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by skippyboxedhero on Saturday January 03, 2026 @10:49AM (#46477992)
Some reports that she is already in Moscow.

I am not sure what you mean by "control the government had"...they are the same thing. It is like the situation with IRA and Sinn Fein, this bizarre roleplay where people (for various reasons) went to massive effort to imply they were separate when it was obvious they were led by the same people. There is no distinction between the government and cartels...the assumption that there is makes no sense at all given the latitude they have to operate.

Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by jacquesm on Saturday January 03, 2026 @09:55AM (#46477358)
> It's not obvious Trump will let her stay in charge.

What's he going to do, kidnap her? Oh, wait.

Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by ExoticPearTree on Saturday January 03, 2026 @11:37AM (#46478602)
Low level officials can be eliminated through missile strikes.

If if had to guess, Maduro could have been take out with a GBU or two, but the US holds a grudge against him so they took him out to humiliate him, and send a message to others.

Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by ethbr1 on Saturday January 03, 2026 @12:02PM (#46478923)
There's a big international diplomacy difference between assassinating a leader and forcibly extraditing one on drug charges.

Not too many countries will go to the mat to support a leader who was engaged in narcotics trafficking, if the US is able to present a viable case (which they seem to intend to, if he's being charged in US federal court).

Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by DiogenesKynikos on Saturday January 03, 2026 @02:40PM (#46480687)
> forcibly extraditing

Commonly known as "kidnapping."

The US has no jurisdiction over Venezuela. This is pure mafia behavior by the US.

Re:Venezuela's capital hit by explosions, smoke seen by slim on Saturday January 03, 2026 @10:11AM (#46477553)
This is a coup and she is part of the conspiracy