We'll know soon enough then.

China isn't giving up any barrels of oil. It's a global market. If Venezuela is selling 5 million bbl per day to China, and it stops selling to China, someone else will start buying it. Since they are now buying 5 million bbl per day from Venezuela, that means they are buying 5 million bbl / day from their existing suppliers. China will buy that oil.

You should not expect the Chinese government to disregard their fourth biggest oil provider, ignore the refineries' investments in processing that oil, and send them looking for another supplier without them retaliating.

On the one hand, I agree. On the other hand, I don't think this administration would have bothered to talk to China at all. I don't think they need to.

You made the mistake of believing that Trump is more than a zero step thinker. Many do.

The fact is, his tactics and plans end where his nose does.

Many of his advisors are capable of planning, but there are times he just doesnt listen to them and lets whatever heavy metals are in the spray tan do all the thinking. See January Sixth for one example that got people killed. See USAID for another.

So much evidence to suggest this.

No reason to think there will be follow up investments or even follow up thoughts.